Beiträge von Ulfur

  • DRDGold Ltd. / DRD (NYSE, JNB) und die Derivate

    "Die südafrikanische Produktion ... dürfte derzeit komplett unprofitabel sein." 8o


    Soll das heißen, daß MWW uns am 23.02 keine Headline-Earnings verkünden kann?


    "DRD Gold verfügt über keine Vorwärtsverkäufe und kann von jedem Goldpreisanstieg in vollem Umfang profitieren."


    Siegel ist ein Witzbold, in der Regel steigt der Breakeven mit dem Goldpreis.


    "Wir reduzieren unser Kursziel von 3,00 weiter auf 2,50 Euro ..."


    Das muß man wohl in Zusammenhang mit Siegels Prognose, daß der Goldpreis in Richtung 871Dollar marschiert, sehen.

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Harry Schultz:


    Schultz's strategy is to trade: "You should sell when THEY do, or BEFORE, if possible (perhaps via our GoldCharts R Us service.).We told GRCU subscriptions to take profits a full week before this latest fall, in bold terms..."


    Schultz remains sanguine about gold: "We had a similar gold sell-off in early December (lasting seven market days and dropping $40) but last week's was more significant as the rise went to historic highs and thereby changed people's attitudes ...This correction may also drop $40, IMO, and will be of no importance except to allow the market to work off its overbought condition. Could it fall more than $40? Markets can do what they like (as can the Plunge Protection Team) but there's technical gold support at 540, 530. 500, 490, 480 and the ultimate gold support at 460....I think 530-540 is the most likely low."


    Schultz warns of gold "mini-crashes" - which don't sound so mini, he means 50 percent-80 percent corrections in the gold stocks.


    But long-term, his view is very clear: "We're in a major gold bull market thanks to excessive bank and government credit and money creation...$600 is our next target, then $900, on the way to $2,000."



    Aden Sisters scheinen sich aus kurz-und mittelfristigen Prognosen herauszuhalten:
    For now, however, gold is correcting in a downward correction following its steep rise. This is normal and the downward correction will remain in process as long as gold stays below $560. But the major trend is more important and it’s been up since 2001. And it’ll remain up even if gold were to decline to as low as $457.


    Nevertheless, some investors feel that gold may now be near a major peak. Time will tell, but if a steep gold correction materializes, it certainly won’t mean the secular bull market is over.
    http://news.goldseek.com/AdenResearch/1140019260.php

  • Harmony Gold Mining / HMY (NYSE), HAR (SA) und Gold Fields / GFI

    Zeitlich hat´s nicht hingehauen, aber im Januar 2006 ist Tamboks Kurs-Prognose doch noch verspätet eingetroffen. 8o


    Im Dezemberquartal hat HAR nach langer Zeit wieder mal einen Gewinn geschrieben, immerhin 6 Randcent. Das gibt ein ordentliches KGV von über 400.


    Die Cashkosten haben sich im Vergleich zum Vorquartal auch verbessert auf beachtenswerte 396 USD = 83154 Rd/Kg . Damit nur noch eine Haaresbreite von den angestrebten 69.000 Rd/kg entfernt.


    Swanepoel: Our current frustration is not being able to string three good months together
    The reality is that we have not completed three good months in a row yet.”
    “However, even three good months in a row would not bring costs down to the targeted R69,000/kg. We are some way off that,” he said. [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.smiliemania.de/smilie132/00000116.gif]


    Analyst Esterhuizen: “These results are very disappointing,”
    “Shareholders are losing patience.”
    "They said they’d fix operations in three to six months. But it's now taken three years and he still sits with the people not producing,” he said. [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.smiliemania.de/smilie132/00000285.gif]
    http://www.miningmx.com/gold_silver/896016.htm


    Nick Goodwin von T Sec: "Its gold profit margin is weak compared to outflows. The gold price needs to go to about $650 (per ounce) for the company to start turning things, and this is not likely to happen soon"


    Beim Mineweb Artikel "The leverage factor" meint man fast, es werde DRD besprochen: :D
    And yet, and yet …… the December quarter resulted in a net cash burn of R520.9 million.
    As usual there is a great deal of future promise. :D
    And there is more to come, perhaps,...
    ...then there had better be some prospect of dividends – in other words a gold price of way, way beyond R110,000/kg. :D

  • Moto Goldmines Ltd. WKN A0B LWY AU000000MTO9 MOT

    Moto Goldmines, a share popular with German investors, expected to lift gold resources a third within months. It was also finalising terms of a resources-equity swap with the Democratic Republic of Congo government.


    DRC’s Moto to lift gold resource 33%
    David McKay


    [miningmx.com] -- MOTO Goldmines, a gold exploration company operating in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), expected to report a one third increase in gold resources by mid-year.


    Klaus Eckhof, Moto Goldmines president, confirmed some 15 million ounces of gold resources had been discovered at properties into which the company had ‘farm in’ agreements with Okimo, a government firm.


    “The resource will improve dramatically in the next three to four months,” said Eckhof. He was commenting at the Emerging Mining Congress held in Livingstone, Zambia.


    Eckhof also confirmed plans to consolidate the properties owned by Okimo into a single entity in return for handing a 10% stake in Moto Mines to Okimo which would also own 20% of the assets. “We’re basically swapping equity for greater participation,” he said.


    Moto Goldmines previously reported gold resources of about 11 million ounces, but the figure has been growing rapidly.Eckhof said gold resources were grown 0.5 million oz every month.


    Owing to the high-grade nature of the resource, the conversion rate (from resources to reserves) was about 95%.


    At estimated throughput of 3 million tons/year, and an average gold price of $450/oz, and excluding capital and infrastructure costs, the company has potential for a 240,000 oz/year production at cash costs of about $220/oz. This would generate net cash flows in excess of $650m over a 12-year life of mine, Moto Goldmines said.


    “At $500/oz this is a fantastic project,” Eckhof said. But the company could generate as much as 800,000 oz/year once it started mining gold from its underground regions. Capital for the startup is estimated to be between $160m to $200m.


    Sam Jonah, who was recently appointed chairman of Moto Goldmines, said the company had been plucked from obscurity.


    “It had six rigs operating in the DRC and nobody knew about it,” Jonah said. “It has now been drilling for 18 months and is due to enter a full-blown feasibility study.”


    Okimo has become more prominent lately after it asked AngloGold Ashanti, the Anglo American subsidiary, to accelerate the development of its gold resource which is adjacent to Moto Goldmines.


    Jonah said there had been no such pressure from Okimo. “Moto must be one of the most active companies in the DRC.”


    Eckhof said the company would be moved to Britain’s Alternative Investment Market (AIM) later this year and delisted from the Australian Stock Exchange. It would retain its Toronto and Frankfurt listing, the latter representing its most active bourse.
    http://www.miningmx.com/events/zambia2006/894286.htm

  • Moto Goldmines Ltd. WKN A0B LWY AU000000MTO9 MOT

    Billige Kritik, meines Erachtens. Eckhoff ist kein englischer Muttersprachler, wie jeder weiß. Kommt aber in englischsprachigen Ländern durchaus zurecht.
    Hauptsache ist, daß er Gold findet und schöne Resourcen bei Moto aufhäuft; Oxford-Englisch kann mir gestohlen bleiben.

  • Moto Goldmines Ltd. WKN A0B LWY AU000000MTO9 MOT

    Klaus Eckhof, MD, Moto Gold
    Allan Seccombe
    Posted:


    [miningmx.com] -- KLAUS Eckhof, MD of Moto Gold, submitted to an interview with Miningmx. Moto Gold is a Toronto and Sydney listed gold exploration company that is developing a resource in the Democratic Republic of Congo.


    MININGMX: Can you tell me what is happening with the project in the DRC?


    KLAUS ECKHOF: Well we are progressing rapidly now to a pre-feasibility study and the bulk of it will to be completed by early 2007. The initial operation will be around 300,000 ounces/year commencing at the end of 2008 into 2009.


    The current resource base is around 11 million ounces. And as we know, we are spending around $1.5m/month and we envisage that the resource with be in excess of 15 million ounces by the middle of the year.


    MININGMX: What is your assessment of the DRC and operating in the region?


    KLAUS ECKHOF: Basically the company was always under-valued owing to the location in the Congo and the Congo itself. However, I must say up front that the Congo is looking quite trendy. As you look around there are a lot of companies now in the Congo and the confidence level is now increasing.


    But any deals being made could not be completed satisfactorily because of the location and the discount we had. So, we decided six months ago to change the board to reflect the move from an exploration company to a more emerging producer. I think that that has been successfully completed.


    MININGMX: And can you just run me through how the project will be financed.


    KLAUS ECKHOF: That will be done probably in the next six to eight months. Alot of banks have us approached from Barclays to Standard Bank to Rothschild. Everyone is keen to look at it because it is a world class project and there is a lot to be financed. And there is money to be made for any bank to come in and there are not many gold projects going around. We could produce up to 800,000 oz/year.


    MININGMX: Surely gold at that kind of level will truly attract interest of the majors?


    KLAUS ECKHOF: All the majors have been on site. Some of the majors have made offers on various during the last two years. Most of the offers usually had a huge discount which was not satisfactory for the board. Hence, I decided to change the profile of the company to become a merchant producer.


    MININGMX: And your future with Moto Gold?


    KLAUS ECKHOF: I think I have achieved what I have always wanted to achieve. We are getting close to production in the next three to six months, once the pre-feasibility has been completed. I will set back and leave it to the mining industry to run the company, which is not my field.


    MININGMX: Will you still maintain a stake in Moto Gold?


    KLAUS ECKHOF: I still have a stake in Moto Gold.
    http://www.miningmx.com/events/indaba_2006/887645.htm

  • SA Minenhaus: Metorex

    Ruashi im Plan, Produktionsbeginn vor Juni, Interview mit CEO Needham.


    Metorex
    Allan Seccombe
    Posted:


    [miningmx.com] -- MININGMX spoke to Charles Needham, CEO of Metorex, a South African listed firm that is breathing new life into the Democratic Republic of Congo’s copper and cobalt production through the development of the 42 million ton Ruashi resource.


    MININGMX: Morning Mr Needham. How is the Ruashi project proceeding?


    CHARLES NEEHAM: Ruashi is about three months away from production. The site is significantly well established and we will be producing before June.


    MININGMX: And how much production would you be looking at for this calendar year?


    CHARLES NEEHAM: It’s a stockpiled resource. So the ramp-up is fairly rapid, over a period of probably one to two months. Then we would be in full production. The target for core production levels is 10,000 tons of copper a year and 1,000 tons of cobalt for the year.


    ...


    MININGMX: Charles, last time I spoke to you, you mentioned something about other exploration projects in the DRC. I was wondering if there is any more to add to that?


    CHARLES NEEHAM: We have secured four more projects or prospects [in the DRC] which are the Musonoi East and Musonoi East Extension, and Sokoroshe 1 and 2. In terms of the exploration we are going to have to get involved in an exploration program on those prospects.


    Certainly. Musonoi must be the first that we look at, which we will be doing in the next year. We will be drilling up that orebody. There is certainly significant signs of mineralisation that we think is most attractive. There after we will move to the Sokoroshi 1 and 2 which is closer to the Lubumbashi, which has had less exploration to date.


    MININGMX: What kind of finance are you putting aside for exploration of those four areas?


    CHARLES NEEHAM: I think to answer that question, we will put aside what is required. We haven’t established an exploration budget at this point in time. However, we are going through the feasibility or bankable feasibility study on Ruashi 2. It is certainly well affordable for the company and we have done that drilling. We have commenced and have almost completed that drilling program at Ruashi.


    MININGMX: What is coming from that drilling program?


    CHARLES NEEHAM: We are confirming that the results produced many years ago are accurate. We are most confident and have had no surprises at all in that ore body.
    http://www.miningmx.com/events/indaba_2006/887628.htm

  • SA Minenhaus: Metorex

    Metorex-Präsentation auf der 11. Mining Indaba in Kapstadt: Allein das Kongoprojekt Ruashi rechtfertigt den Aktienpreis von 7R, somit gäb´s die anderen Unternehmensteile umsonst.
    Ruashi´s Phase 1 kommt April/Mai ins Laufen mit 10000 t Kupfer (Kupferkathode) und 1000 t Kobalt (Kobaltkarbonat ) jährlich.
    Phase 2 beginnt 2008 mit 45.000 t Kupfer und 3.500 t Kobalt. Projektbarwert bei 2100 USD/t Kupfer und 10 USD/lb Kobalt mehr als 450 Mio USD. Cash Cost nur 0,13 USD/lb Kupfer nach Abzug der Kobalterträge.
    Weitere Projekte im Kongo geplant.
    Flußspatkapazität wird um 50% erhöht, Kohleproduktion in Wakefield wurde im Januar um 25% erhöht.
    „Malones Zahlen sind verlockend und er ist – von Natur aus – sehr konservativ“


    Ruashi's copper gives a free ride into Metorex
    By: Jim Jones
    Posted: '08-FEB-06 15:18' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004


    CAPE TOWN (Mineweb.com) -- If you go along with chairman Simon Malone, anyone buying his company’s shares at their current price of R7 is getting the whole lot for free. How? Well, Malone said Wednesday at Indaba 2006 in Cape Town that his company’s Ruashi copper/cobalt project in the DRC (Congo) is worth between R7 and R10 a Metorex share – in other words the rest is thrown in for nothing.


    Malone was positively bullish on Ruashi. He believes that the strategy of locating the mine and concentrator in the DRC 10km from the southern Congolese city of Lubumbashi and the processing plant at Kabwe in neighbouring Zambia splits country risk. Metorex has an effective two-thirds interest in Ruashi.


    As it is, the first phase of Ruashi is due to come on stream this April/May at a total capital cost of $41 million -- $26 million at Ruashi and $15 million at Kabwe. Phase 1 will treat a monthly 70,000 tons of existing surface stockpiles to produce an annual 10,000 tons of copper cathode and some 1,000 tons of cobalt carbonate.


    Then, by the first quarter of 2008 the $140 million second phase should create an operation processing a monthly 120,000 tons of mined ore to produce an annual 45,000 tons of copper cathode and 3,500 tons of cobalt carbonate for 25 years or more.


    Again according to Malone’s reckoning, calculated on a $10/lb cobalt price and $2,100/ton copper the net present value (NPV) of Ruashi is greater than $450 million. And every $500/ton shift in the copper price changes that NPV by $80 million. Looked at another way, the internal rate of return for Ruashi is 50% and operating costs are $0.13/lb of copper net of the cobalt revenue.


    But Malone and Metorex are ambitious. Way across to the west in the DRC are the Musonoi East and Sokoroshe prospects. The aim is to prove a reserve containing 4 million tons of in situ copper and capable of sustaining mining operations producing an annual 200,000 tons of copper.


    All of which ignores Metorex’s other assets in South Africa – its 70%-owned Vergenoeg fluorspar mine which is a month away from completing a 50% capacity increase, its 74%-owned Wakefield colliery where production was increased by 25% in January, its Consolidated Murchison antimony/gold mine and its Barberton gold properties.


    Malone’s figuring is seductive, and he is, by nature, very conservative.
    http://www.mineweb.net/events/…06/indaba_2006/886566.htm

  • Moto Goldmines Ltd. WKN A0B LWY AU000000MTO9 MOT

    Canada's Moto in DRC gold plan
    [miningmx.com] -- THE Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC's) state-owned Okimo, and foreign-listed Moto Goldmines are to unveil a deal that will bring a 300,000 oz/year gold mine into production in the next two years.


    Okimo is urging AngloGold Ashanti and Moto Goldmines to fast track their gold projects to produce 20 tons of gold a year.


    “Okimo will conclude a major transaction with Moto,” Okimo CEO Victor Kasongo told a packed breakfast meeting attending the Indaba Mining Conference in Cape Town, South Africa.


    Details should be released within the next few days, Kasongo said.


    Klaus Eckhoff, MD of Moto, told Miningmx the transaction would see Okimo, which has a 30% stake in its gold project, switching into 10% of the company’s shares.
    ...
    Moto Goldmines has changed from an exploration company to an emerging producer after successive offers from major gold miners continued to disappoint, Eckhoff said.


    “Most of the majors have been on site. Some have made offers in the last two years, most of the offers had a huge discount on them, or they were not satisfactory. Hence the decision to change to an emerging producer and go it alone,” he said.


    Gold Fields was one of the bidders, but Eckhoff said: “They offered peanuts. Now it is too late.”


    Newmont had also taken a look at the project. It would now have to make a bid for the asset instead of coming in as a partner, he said.


    Moto is busy with a pre-feasibility study and should have a bankable feasibility study completed by early 2007. By the end of 2008 production is expected to begin.


    The operation will have initial production of 300,000 oz/year building up to 500,000 to 60,000 oz/year when oxide mining is augmented with a primary circuit. An oxide plant will be built at a cost of $100m.


    When the project moves to underground mining that figure is seen rising to 800,000 to 900,000 oz/year, he said. Cash costs could be as low as $120/oz. The project will be funded largely through debt.
    ...
    http://www.miningmx.com/events/indaba_2006/885848.htm

  • DRDGold Ltd. / DRD (NYSE, JNB) und die Derivate

    Meine Laienmeinung:


    Die Halbjahreszahlen am 23.02 abwarten, ev. werden da endlich positive Trends sichtbar.


    Weiter interessiert mich, ob gute Akquisitionen anstehen: Ncholo: "Opportunities are already knocking on our door and we are likely to make important announcements early this year"


    Ob der DRD-Preis derzeit niedrig ist, wissen wir nicht. Hängt auch stark davon ab, wieweit der Goldpreis konsolidiert/korrigiert.