Beiträge von GOLD_Baron

    KKR, Blackstone Push for Record Low LBO Loan Rates (Update1)


    By Harris Rubinroit


    Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Henry Kravis and Stephen Schwarzman never had an easier time getting the lowest interest rates on loans from their bankers.


    Just three months after borrowing $12.8 billion to pay for hospital operator HCA Inc. in November, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. and its partners negotiated a new loan with lower rates. Schwarzman, chief executive officer of Blackstone Group LP, is doing the same for a $3.5 billion loan that financed the takeover of Freescale Semiconductor Inc., the mobile-phone-chip maker.


    Leveraged buyout firms are leading borrowers refinancing $64 billion of loans so far this year, more than in all of 2006, according to ratings company Standard & Poor's. Banks are giving in and reducing rates because corporate defaults are near all- time lows.


    ``This is the best loan market for borrowers I have ever seen,'' said Kenneth Moore, a managing director at First Reserve Corp., a private equity firm in Greenwich, Connecticut, that manages more than $12.5 billion and specializes in buying energy companies.


    Loans for companies rated four or five levels below investment grade yielded an average 2.26 percentage points more than the three-month London interbank offered rate in the week ending Feb. 15, S&P says. That gap over Libor, a lending benchmark, was the smallest ever and compared with more than 4 percentage points in 2003. The difference saves $17.4 million a year for every $1 billion a company borrows.


    HCA Refinances


    Nashville, Tennessee-based HCA this month refinanced $12.8 billion of term loans arranged when a group including New York- based KKR, led by the 63-year-old Kravis, agreed to buy the company for $33 billion.


    The new loans pay interest at 2.25 percentage points over Libor, compared with the original agreement of 2.50 percentage points and 2.75 percentage points. For KKR and its partners, the annual savings amount to $54 million. The three-month Libor is 5.36 percent.


    Loans helped fuel a record $1.55 trillion in mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. last year, New York-based S&P said. So- called leveraged loans financed 57 percent of those transactions, the highest in seven years, it said. Leveraged loans are considered below investment grade and are rated below BBB- at S&P and Baa3 by Moody's Investors Service.


    ``There is clearly room to exceed the biggest loan deal ever done,'' Moore said. HCA's financing was the largest sold to investors.


    Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America Corp., along with JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc., both based in New York, led banks in arranging $480 billion of leveraged loans last year, up 62 percent from 2005, according to S&P. Parts of the loans are sold to investors, two-thirds of which aren't banks, up from 25 percent in 2001, according to S&P.


    Investor `Influx'


    More than 250 institutions purchased high-yield loans last year, compared with fewer than 100 in 2002, S&P says. Many of the investors are new to the market, including Boston-based State Street Global Advisors, which said in November it would start buying loans.


    ``The influx of additional market participants has diminished the ability for investors to organize and oppose a re- pricing,'' said Frederick Haddad, a partner at New York-based GoldenTree Asset Management LP, which oversees about $7.9 billion. ``The re-pricings are a function of too much liquidity. Private equity firms looking to get better terms and one-up each other have become epidemic in the loan market.''


    Private equity firms announced more than $400 billion of acquisitions in the U.S. last year, including nine of the 10 biggest LBOs, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Private equity firms typically finance about two-thirds of the purchase price with debt, resulting in below-investment grade credit ratings for the target company.


    Little Risk


    Schwarzman, 60, surpassed the record this month when New York-based Blackstone paid $39 billion for real estate investment trust Equity Office Properties Trust of Chicago.


    Lenders see little risk in giving borrowers what they want. An expanding economy is making it easier than ever for companies to meet their debt payments. The default rate on leveraged loans was 0.45 percent in January, the lowest ever, according to S&P. That compares with an average of 3.05 percent over the past 10 years, according to data compiled by Credit Suisse Group.


    The U.S. economy will expand 2.7 percent this year, according to a survey of 69 analysts by Bloomberg News from Feb. 1 to Feb. 8. The anticipated rate of growth is 0.2 percentage point faster than a survey the previous month.


    Lenders are recouping most of their money even after defaults. Recovery rates for bank debt averaged an all-time high of 93 percent last year, an S&P study found.


    Loan investors in New York-based Refco Inc., the futures trader that in October 2005 filed for bankruptcy, recovered all their principal last year, according to S&P. Bondholders received about 83 cents on the dollar.


    Disappearing Gap


    Money is pouring into loans from investors looking to profit after the gap between interest on loans and yields on speculative-grade bonds, which offer fewer protections, disappeared following the Federal Reserve's 17 rate increases between June 2004 and June 2006.


    Borrowers with non-investment-grade ratings pay interest of 7.58 percent on average for loans, compared with about 7.59 percent for high-yield bonds, according to New York-based Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Over the past 10 years, loan rates have averaged 2.30 percentage points less than yields on junk bonds, which have fewer protections.


    ``High-yield bond investors are moving into the loan market as the spreads between high-yield bonds and leverage loans have narrowed,'' said Seth Katzenstein, a New York-based managing director at GSC Group, which manages more than $18 billion.


    Market Lull


    Lenders will be able to reject demands for lower rates in coming months because more companies will require credit, said Howard Tiffen, who oversees $7 billion of bank debt at Morgan Stanley Investment Management in Oakbrook Terrace, Illinois. Borrowers have profited from a lull in new deals, he said.


    That will change in coming weeks because New Orleans-based Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. will need $11.5 billion of loans for its $26 billion acquisition of Phelps Dodge Corp., the world's third-largest copper producer and based in Phoenix, Arizona.


    A group led by Kinder Morgan Inc. Chairman Richard Kinder said in August that it would take the Houston-based company private for about $22 billion, using $8.6 billion of loans for the purchase, according to filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.


    ``The big deals coming will bring the market back into equilibrium,'' said Tiffen, who has run the Van Kampen loan funds since 1999. ``The market is not well-balanced. But, this is not particularly unusual. Most years we see periods where demand gets ahead of supply and vice versa.''


    Too Complacent


    Banks may be too complacent, according to CreditSights Inc., a New York-based debt research firm.


    ``The worst of loans are written in the best of times and that could well apply to the current lending boom,'' said Louise Purtle, an analyst at CreditSights. ``Loan sizes are increasing, borrowers are becoming more levered, and the number and stringency of covenants is being reduced.''


    Borrowers in the U.S. this year have received or are seeking $16.3 billion of loans without so-called maintenance covenants, or restrictions such as quarterly limits on the amount of debt a borrower can have relative to earnings before items such as depreciation, interest and taxes. The amount compares with the record $24 billion for all of 2006, according to S&P.


    `All About Control'


    ``Covenants are all about control,'' said GSC's Katzenstein. ``With covenants, you can get concessions from the borrower such as an increased interest rate or fees'' if they violate the terms of their loans, he said.


    Austin, Texas-based Freescale is asking lenders to lower the rate on a $3.5 billion loan used to help fund its $17.6 billion LBO by a Blackstone-led group in December. The company in November agreed to pay lenders 2 percentage points above Libor. It wants to cut the margin to 1.75 percentage points, saving about $8.75 million in annual interest.


    Nielsen Co., the owner of the ratings service and Adweek magazine, last month persuaded lenders to cut the margins on $5.2 billion of loans taken out in August that funded its $11.7 billion buyout. The group includes KKR, Blackstone and Carlyle Group of Washington.


    Haarlem, Netherlands-based Nielsen is paying interest at Libor plus 2.25 percentage points, down from 2.50 percentage points to 2.75 percentage points on separate loans, slashing its annual costs by about $23.5 million.


    To contact the reporter on this story: Harris Rubinroit in New York at hrubinroit@bloomberg.net .
    Last Updated: February 21, 2007 10:30 EST


    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/…sid=a0J7Vy9q0ESw&refer=us

    DAX 2000 UND 2007


    Zwei Mal 7000 Punkte - zwei Welten


    Von Matthias Streitz


    Nach sechs Jahren hat es der Dax am Morgen kurz über 7000 Punkte geschafft, dann bröselten die Kurse. Ein verblüffender Unterschied zur aufgeheizten Stimmung des 3. Januar 2000, als der Index die Marke zum ersten Mal übersprang. Ein Vergleich zweier Börsentage.


    Hamburg - Es war ein Trip wie auf Koks: Als der Dax Chart zeigen im Millenniumsfieber des Januars 2000 zum ersten Mal in seiner Geschichte über die Marke von 7000 Punkten stieg, da lagen Euphorie und Kollaps eng beieinander.


    Schon das Wort "stieg" ist eine Untertreibung: Der Dax stieg nicht in jenen frühen Handelsminuten des Börsentages 3. Januar 2000. Er eilte, er schnellte, er schoss.


    Nach einem Raketenstart in den ersten Handelsminuten rauschte der Index bis auf 7159,33 Punkte hoch. Rasant auch der Absturz gleich danach: Ab dem Nachmittag fiel und fiel und fiel der Dax, bis herunter auf 6750,76 Zähler. 410 Punkte Verlust in nur wenigen Stunden - eine sensationell breite Spanne. Fast noch erstaunlicher war, dass der Börsenmakler Thomas Mühlbauer hinterher in einem Interview sagte: "Das war ein ganz normaler Tag."


    Im Rückblick ist klar: Die Kursachterbahn des 3. Januar 2000 war Vorbote des Zusammenbruchs, einer historischen Kurskorrektur, die den Dax nach seinem Allzeithoch von 8064,97 Punkten immer weiter in die Tiefe trieb. Erst im März 2003 war der Wendepunkt erreicht, bei nur noch 2202,96 Punkten.


    "Im Jahr 2000 sind die Dinge ins Kraut geschossen", sagt Trudbert Merkel, der Manager des DekaFonds, im Rückblick. Vor allem den Kleinaktionären ist die Verlustfurcht seitdem zum Instinkt geworden - obwohl und eben weil die Kurse inzwischen seit fast vier Jahren wieder steigen.


    Andere Risikokultur


    So sah das Drehbuch für den Börsentag 21. Februar 2007 ganz anders aus: Der Dax hüpfte zwar gleich in den ersten Handelsminuten über 7000 Punkte - doch er kam nur bis zu 7005,34 Zählern. Am Nachmittag fiel der Index sogar bis auf 6922 Punkte zurück. "Da fehlt noch der letzte Kick, um die 7000 Punkte so richtig zu nehmen", fand der Postbank-Aktienstratege Heinz-Gerd Sonnenschein.


    Nicht nur die Zahlen des 3. Januar 2000 und des 21. Februar 2007 unterscheiden sich - auch die Anleger- und Risikokultur hat sich gewandelt. Wie anders die Stimmung vor sieben Jahren war, aufgeheizt nach den Tech-Börsengängen der späten Neunziger - das zeigt ein Blick in die Presse von damals:


    "Für Einsteiger ist es nicht zu spät", urteilte "Capital" Anfang Januar 2000 - die Überschrift lautete "Warten auf das Feuerwerk".


    Der Dax könne bis 2010 auf 15.000 Punkte steigen, prognostizierte der New Yorker Fondsmanager Heiko Thieme in der "Welt am Sonntag".


    "Steuern runter, Kurse rauf - 7000 Dax-Punkte sind erst der Anfang", war am 3. Januar 2000 dem "Focus" zu entnehmen.


    SPIEGEL ONLINE schloss Anfang 2000 eine Börsenkolumne mit dem Satz: "Wenn die Analysten Recht behalten, dann hält der Kurs nach oben auch im neuen Börsenjahr weiter an."


    Auch in diesen Tagen wagen sich manche Boom-Prognostiker weit vor. "Der Dax klettert noch viel weiter", weissagt etwa die "Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung". Doch die Inbrunst und der Neue-Ära-Eifer des Jahres 2000 sind weg. Getrud Traud, Chefvolkswirtin der Helaba, meint deshalb: "Heute ist die Entwicklung an der Börse viel gesünder."


    Was also soll der Kleininvestor tun? Er sollte sich vor halbinformierten Propheten hüten. Und er könnte darauf achten, wie Insider handeln. In den vergangenen zwei Monaten haben Top-Manager von 32 der 110 größten börsennotierten Konzerne in Deutschland Aktien ihres eigenen Unternehmens abgestoßen. Nur bei acht Unternehmen kauften die Insider ihre eigenen Aktien.


    Das ist ein Indiz, dass es mit den Kursen eher abwärts als aufwärts gehen könnte. Aber eben nur ein Indiz.


    mit dpa/Reuters


    [URL=http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,467853,00.html]http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,467853,00.html[/URL]


    Wo liegt die Intention vom Spiegel? ?(

    Kurz und knapp:


    Steigt der Goldpreis über 670 bzw. 700 könnte eine massive Euphorie einsetzen, die ihn bis 800 bzw. 900 treibt. Das würde nicht nur Hedge-Fonds, sondern auch sämtliche Banken, etc. in die Predulie bringen und den Untergang des heutigen Finanzsystems bedeuten.


    (oh, ich klinge ja fast wie Walter K.) :D

    Default would send shockwaves round world 13/02/2007


    If Ecuador fails to pay interest on its debt this week the move could resonate far beyond its borders.


    Investment bankers, hedge funds and other investors around the world are watching developments closely - for the potential impact on the broader emerging markets and on a new, but fast-growing, sector of the financial world known as credit derivatives.


    There have been very few defaults by sovereign borrowers in recent years, following history's biggest - on about $100bn (€77bn, £51bn) of debt - by Argentina in 2001. Moreover, few governments have defaulted on debt when their ability to pay has not been in much doubt...


    Read
    Financial Times

    Housing Sales Drop in 40 States 15/02/2007


    The slump in housing deepened in the final three months of last year with sales falling in 40 states and median home prices dropping in nearly half the metropolitan areas surveyed.


    Formerly red-hot areas were among the hardest hit as the five-year housing boom cooled considerably in 2006.


    While some economists said they believed the worst may be over for housing, others predicted more price declines to come until near- record levels of unsold homes are reduced.


    The National Association of Realtors said the states with the biggest declines in sales from October through December compared with the same period in 2005 were: Nevada, down 36.1 percent; Florida, down 30.8 percent; Arizona, down 26.9 percent; and California, down 21.3 percent...


    Read
    Breitbart

    Aubie Bailtin: 21st Century Gold Rush Revisited


    http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/baltin021707.html


    The dot com bubble will look like small potatoes compared to some of the upcoming gains in the Gold and Silver bull market of the 21st century. But unlike the dot com bubble that was based on easy financing, unrealistic dreams of profits, aggressive accounting and pure greed, the coming explosion in Gold and Silver stocks will be all about not only Greed, but abject FEAR as well, to protect one's savings from the paper destruction combined with the GREED to get in on a sure thing. There is nothing that can stand in the way of a combination of GREED and FEAR. - Aubie Baltin


    Der Autor meint, dass die 2. Phase des Gold-Bull-Markts im Anlaufen ist. Diese wird weiter hinaufgehen als 1980. Er sieht auch dass die ganzen Bond und Stock-Bubbles bald implodieren werden.


    Das einzige Investment um super-erfolgreich zu sein, ist heute in Gold/Silber und Minenaktien drinnen zu sein und diese 2..3 Jahre zu halten - dann hat man ausgesorgt.

    Robert McHugh: BONDS ARE FORECASTING A 2007 RECESSION


    http://www.financialsense.com/…als/mchugh/2007/0217.html


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://hartgeld.com/filesadmin/images/div/moneydrop.png]


    "There’s only one way out of this mess: sacrificing the dollar. A planned hyperinflation of the money supply and devaluation of the dollar will assure that markets rise in nominal prices, a necessity given the debt crisis that is looming. There is simply an imbalance between income and debt service, and if asset valuations are permitted to decline, the result will be economic chaos. There is no choice here for the Fed. They must print and get that money into as many consumer hands as possible. They must lift market prices higher — buy bonds (and ergo stimulate housing) and stocks; and raise cash for increased entitlement payments — put cash directly into the hands of consumers. The Fed must pretend to be inflation vigilant, while doubling the money supply. This is a magician’s act, a house of cards. Precious metals should benefit."

    Expect the Expected sagt unser Eldo immer:


    Es kann anders kommen als die Masse (!) denkt. Wenn kein physisches Gold und Silber mehr verfügbar ist, muss das Geld in Werte flüchten.


    Junior Minen können dann Marktkapitalisierungen von mehreren Milliarden erreichen. Der Höhepunkt der Krise in der Krise - wenn Gold peaked - ist der Ausstiegszeitpunkt.


    Wenn die Börsen über mehrere Monate geschlossen bleiben ist sowieso Schicht im Schacht - vorläufig! ;)

    Zitat

    Heli Ben ist von Senator Evan Bayh (D) gefragt worden, was passieren würde wenn die Chinesen Ihre $-Reserven auf dem Weltmarkt kippen. Das Gesicht von "Big Ben" müsstet Ihr sehen. großes Grinsen



    Ben ist nur minimal nervös....... :D :D 8o

    Zitat

    Original von maximae
    GOLD_Baron


    Ne, Dir ist wirklich übel. Und jetzt willst auch noch beleidigen.


    Reg Dich ab Bub. Geduld ist eine Tugend.


    Es ist nicht meine Intention hier jemanden zu beledigen - aber einfach aus dem Nichts mit derart haltloser Kritik um sich schleunern ist unterstes Niveau. Und bei derartigen Vorfällen werde ich - m.M. zu Recht etwas aggressiver.


    "Dumme soll man lassen" - Ihr habt Recht!


    Maximae, du brauchst Dich in diesem Thread nicht mehr zu Wort melden.