ZitatAlles anzeigenOriginal von SilVisconti
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With silver inventories now dwindling, Butler compares silver to uranium. Global uranium supply fell to very little last century due to both indifference and supply provided by the dismantling of nuclear warheads (inventory). Now that uranium is back in favour, the price has increased twelve-fold as supply struggles to catch up and warheads begin to run out. The silver inventory supply is even more critical, but silver has not hit US$50/oz – a twelve-fold increase.
In the case of uranium however, there is plenty in the ground. It will just take some time for miners to get their acts together. As silver is an ancient commodity, it is reasonable to assume, and evidence suggests, that there are no more significant global silver discoveries left to be made.
And unlike uranium, or any other resource, silver boasts a "duality" in that it is both industrial and precious at the same time. "Few potential silver buyers recognise just how powerful this will be to the price", says Butler. "The trick is to position yourself before the masses arrive". (One could also argue that is it exactly this dichotomy, or might one say "identity crisis", that has held silver back).
"In the eyes of the world", says Butler, "only gold compares to silver as an investment. Maybe one in a thousand investors recognises that silver is more rare than gold above ground." Thus suggests we should expect "fireworks" when this reality dawns. Butler calculates total above-ground gold to be worth US$2.5 trillion while total above-ground silver is only worth US$13 billion. He also expects that parochial gold investors will soon see silver for its greater price potential. If only 0.1% of the value of above ground gold was switched into silver, it would represent 200 million ounces of silver – far more than total Comex inventories.
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These are not particularly new arguments. However, what Butler considers to be the "bombshell" in his dissertation is the "presence of an unprecedented concentrated short position in Comex silver futures".
"It is the existence of this concentrated short position that will, at some point, launch the silver price to the heavens. This short position has grown so large, and is held by so few entities, that it no longer matters how it will be resolved. It must be resolved and, whether that resolution involves default or buying by short covering, it will have the same bullish impact on price."
It has been this short position that has held the price of silver down in recent times, such that silver has underperformed other commodities, Butler believes. He also believes it must eventually give, such that silver would "accelerate upward to price levels that are truly shocking".
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http://www.fnarena.com/index2.…7A4-1130-F54A69400ACD9D59
Gruß, SilVisconti
Ok klingt gut,
aber man sollte auch erwähnen, dass es zu Uran keine Alternative gibt, wenn man eine Milliardeninvestition in ein neues Kraftwerk getätigt hat.
Silber ist in manchen Anwendungen zwar auch schwer zu ersetzen, aber teilweise kann es ersetzt werden.
Tatsächlich glaube ich, dass es der steigende Preis des Silbers selbst sein wird, der Investoren anlockt, nicht die rationalen Argumente. Da im Silbermarkt aber vergleichsweise minimale Summen zu einer Preisexplosion führen, ist es tatsächlich nur eine Frage der Zeit bis es hier knallt. Im Grunde reicht ein ein Investor, der mal 500 Millionen in die Hand nimmt für die Initialzündung. Damit hätte er lt. Butler rechnerisch bereits sage und schreibe 4% des Weltsilbervorrates aufgekauft. Die restlichen Investoren kommen dann wie die Lemminge. der Punkt kommt. Sicher. Dann ist die Zeit des Papiersilbers im übrigen vorbei!
![:]](https://goldseiten-forum.com/wcf/images/smilies/pleased.gif "Freude"){kind=small}
Wenn sich das hier fortsetzt analog zu Mai06 sollte man seine Konsequenzen ziehen. Jedoch jetzt heute panikartig in Cash zu gehen ist not my Style.
!