Beiträge von SilVisconti

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    THE GARTMAN LETTER L.C.


    (…)
    SPOT GOLD:
    We shall hold to the same
    thesis we have held to for
    months: that gold is
    consolidating, not topping... and
    that new and higher highs lie
    ahead. We are not believers in
    government manipulation ?( ; we
    are not bearish of the US
    dollar; we are even somewhat
    bearish of crude... all of which
    should put gold lower.
    However, it refuses to fall and
    that is sufficient to keep us on
    the buy side.
    (…)


    http://www.cfsfutures.com/images/E0067301/013007.PDF

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    Steigt Gold jetzt auch in Euro?
    Dreht der Bondmarkt in der nächsten Zinssenkungsrunde, völlig unerwartet, nach unten?
    Was sagt uns der relativ stabile Goldpreis?


    Mark Faber, PH.D. "Dr. Doom"
    Mark Faber Limited
    "What's Ahead This Year"
    (…)
    But of course, long term you have to bearish about the dollar. But as I mentioned on previous occasions to be bearish on the dollar one has to define bearish about the dollar against what. And to that I just have to say, we have a US monetary authority – the Federal Reserve – that prints money, but in other countries we also have paper money, and they also print money. And so I’m not sure that the dollar will collapse against say the euro. I rather think that all paper currencies will depreciate against gold and silver.
    (…)
    The only problem with this theory is that I believe that the next time that the Fed aggressively cuts interest rates to support asset markets that at that time the bond markets may not react in a friendly fashion. In other words, normally when you cut interest rates, bonds will rally. But in this particular instance when the Fed will cut rates I think bonds may turn and that may make the job of the Fed very difficult.
    (…)
    But actually the gold price has been relatively strong compared to these commodities – particularly recently. In other words, the gold price has outperformed the CRB, outperformed copper recently. And so what does it tell you? Oil and copper are economically sensitive commodities, whereas gold isn’t. So if gold goes up against the other commodities it shows that the market is apprehensive about future inflation and about future depreciation of the value of paper money – specifically the US dollar.
    (…)


    http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/2007/0120.html


    Gruß, Sil

  • R.Deutsch ist tot - Nachruf für einen Freund

    [ Börse & Wirtschaft: Elliott-Wellen-Forum ]


    Geschrieben von Popeye am 17. Januar 2007 14:59:04:



    Wenn nicht erfüllt, so war es doch ein volles Leben, das 71 Jahre währte.
    Es war ein einfaches Leben, nicht getragen von heroischen Zielen, sondern bestimmt von der Verlässlichkeit in Familie und im Freundeskreis mit der er die großen Themen seines Lebens gemeistert hat. In diesem Sinne war Reinhard der Meister seines Lebens, ein verlässlicher libertärer, manchmal sarkastischer Nonkonformist, der jede freundschaftlich ausgestreckte Hand ergriff, ohne sich von ihr abhängig zu machen. Reinhard war niemandes Knecht und niemandes Herr; seine eigene - vor allem geistige - Unabhängigkeit war das Leitmotiv, das sein Denken und Handeln bestimmte.
    Niemand sollte deshalb um Reinhard trauern – im Leben und im Sterben fand er seinen eigenen Weg – aufrecht, geduldig, verlässlich, tapfer, suchend. Von dieser Suche gibt auch dieses Forum Zeugnis.


    Ich bin weniger - ohne ihn als Freund.
    @Popeye


    „Wer sich sein reifes Leben lang Mühe gab, wer Freude für sich und Andere suchte, wer mit angeborenen Schwächen so weit wie möglich zurechtkam, wer seine Talente nicht brach liegen ließ, wer an Treue glaubte und sie übte, wer half, wo er konnte und helfen Sinn hatte, wer einmal dies glaubte und einmal das, weil er eben ein Mensch und kein Engel war – was soll der vom Tode fürchten.“ (Golo Mann in einem Brief (1989) an seinen Freund Julio del Val Caturla)


    "For a brief space it is granted to us, if we will, to enlighten the darkness that surrounds our path….We press forward, torch in hand, along the path. Soon from behind comes the runner who will outpace us. All our skill lies in giving into his hand the living torch, bright and unflickering, as we ourselves disappear in the darkness." (Havelock Ellis 1859 - 1939)


    http://f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/messages/372479.htm


    Es war ihm nicht beschieden, seine angekündigte Silberexplosion noch erleben zu dürfen. Aber sie wird kommen, und wir werden von seinem weisen Rat profitieren. Er war es, der mich überhaupt auf die Silberspur brachte. Dank dafür Reinhard!


    SilV

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    Gartman hat sich für 2007 angeschnallt:


    (…)
    COMMODITY PRICES HAVE TRIED TO
    STABILISE in the past twenty four hours, with
    precious metals coming off their highs made yesterday;
    however in light of the fact that gold, for example, is up quite
    sharply from the levels prevailing late last week, we are still
    impressed by the strength of that market.
    (…)
    Long of One Unit of Gold: .As noted when
    we re-entered this trade, we were willing to give it a good deal
    more room than we might otherwise give a trade, and although
    the collapse in recent days was material... even frightening...
    we shall hold this one unit of gold as an "insurance" position
    against economic problems, potential terrorist activities, etc.
    (…)


    http://www.cfsfutures.com/images/E0067301/011607.pdf


    Gruß, Sil

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I


    Moin mesodor, noch nicht ganz, aber die ersten zwei und der letzte Abschnitt sind sowieso klar. Das hatte ich ja nicht bestritten, dass, wenn mehr neue Kredite aufgenommen werden, als alte zurückgezahlt werden, neues Geld entsteht, dieses immer sofort investiert wird und somit inflationiert. Mir ging es viel mehr darum, dass in einem Umfeld, in welchem gleich viel Kredite aufgenommen werden wie zurückgezahlt werden, Preise (insgesamt) gleich bleiben, auch wenn sich die Geschwindigkeit des Geldumlaufs erhöht.


    Um bei Deinem Beispiel zu bleiben: Ich leihe mir also Geld und investiere es in eine Immobilie. Wenn viele andere das ebenfalls machen, wird durch diese neuen Kredite Geld geschaffen und es werden die Immobilienpreise inflationiert. Soweit alles klar.


    Nun mal theoretisch angenommen: Ab diesem Zeitpunkt werden plötzlich in einem autarken Raum gleich viel Kredite aufgenommen wie zurückgezahlt werden; es kann also (insgesamt) nicht mehr inflationiert werden.


    Einige sehen jetzt, oh meine vermietete Eigentumswohnung kann ich gerade zu Traumpreisen abstoßen. Das Geld des anderen (des Käufers) habe jetzt ich und ich investiere dafür in günstig bewertete Aktien und kaufe ein neues Auto. Die Immopreise geben dadurch etwas nach, Aktien und Autos werden etwas inflationiert. In der Summe bleiben die Preise aber gleich, egal mit welcher Geschwindigkeit diese Austauschprozesse stattfinden.


    Du sagst:

    Zitat

    Ist dadurch das neu geschaffene Geld weg / gebunden? NEIN - es hat nun ein anderer.


    Gibt es der Andere der Bank zurück? NEIN, warum sollte er. Auch er investiert wieder irgendwo, gibt vielleicht auch einen Teil aus. Und die Preise steigen.


    Immer noch bei genau gleichbleibender Geldmenge im autarken Raum: Ich hatte in dem Beispiel durch Herausnehmen des Geldes aus dem Kreislauf für ein paar Stunden oder Tage Geld gehortet, um die Immobilie bezahlen zu können, d.h. Deflation erzeugt. Diese kurzfristige Deflation meinerseits kompensiert der Verkäufer einige Zeit später wiederum durch Käufe, d.h. er inflationiert sofort wieder, was ich deflationiert hatte, nur vielleicht in einem anderen Segment. Der Ausgleich ist wieder hergestellt und Preise steigen (insgesamt) nicht Wo liegt die Denkfalle? (Bin jetzt für ein paar Stunden weg, Silber zu inflationieren........ äähhh zu kaufen ;) )


    Gruß, SilVisconti

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    Zitat


    Steigen die Geldmengen viel stärker als die Mengen der dafür verfügbaren Waren....


    ....muss man davon ausgehen, daß die umlaufenden Geldmengen langfristig ähnlich stark steigen, wie die Geldmengen selber.


    Und damit ist alles klar. Wird nicht in dem Maße mehr prodiziert, wie die Geldmengen ansteigen, dann ist die Differenz das zukünftige Inflationspotenzial. Und das dürfte gigantisch sein. Vor allem in einer Rezession, wenn die Zinsen gesenkt werden und die Geldmengen demzufolge noch stärker steigen.


    Hallo mesodor,
    ich bin leider kein Bänker und habe deshalb zu Deinen Ausführungen eine Frage:


    Lt. Roland Baader in „Geld, Gold und Gottspieler“ hat sich die Gütermenge der westl. Industrienationen in den letzten 30 Jahren (Stand 2004) vervierfacht, die Geldmenge jedoch im gleichen Zeitraum vervierzigfacht. Dieses Überangebot an Geld(=Kredit) habe sich in Aktienmärkte, Immobilien, Anleihen und zuletzt in Commodities ergossen und diese inflationiert.


    Es ist also IMO so, dass jeder neue Kredit(=Geld) sofort zum jeweiligen Zeitpunkt der Entstehung investiert wurde und da bereits inflationiert hat. Und jeder neue Kredit in Zukunft wird sofort zum Zeitpunkt seiner Entstehung investiert werden and dann erneut inflationieren.


    Wie ist es aber möglich, dass eine höhere Umlaufgeschwindigkeit (= Deine „umlaufenden Geldmengen“) von unveränderten Geldmengen Inflation erzeugt? Die Geldmenge bleibt doch gleich, wie soll dadurch Inflation entstehen? Es ist doch so, dass dann vielleicht bei Immobilien etwas Inflation entweicht und dafür beispielsweise Lebensmitteln inflationiert werden, d.h. die Inflation verschiebt sich von einem Segment in ein anderes, aber insgesamt bleibt die Inflation doch konstant(!?)


    Besten Dank im Voraus
    Sil

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    Taiwan Seeks to Quell Fears About Rebar
    Sunday January 7, 1:16 am ET
    Taiwan Seeks to Quell Fears Over Financial Troubles at Rebar Asia Pacific Group



    TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) -- Taiwan's government said Sunday it has taken over the management of two financial units of the troubled Rebar Asia Pacific Group, a prominent Taiwanese conglomerate, as authorities moved quickly to assuage investors' fears.



    The government's Central Deposit Insurance Corp. said it took over the management of The Chinese Bank on Saturday and The Great Chinese Bills Finance Corp. on Sunday after depositors rushed to withdraw their funds.


    On Friday, depositors withdrew more than 15 billion New Taiwan dollars ($460 million) from accounts at The Chinese Bank, according to the Financial Supervisory Commission, the island's top financial regulator.


    The depositors' concerns were triggered when two other Rebar group companies, China Rebar Co. and Chia Hsin Food and Synthetic Fiber Co., filed to restructure their businesses after years of losses hurt their ability to repay debts.


    The financial regulator said it has asked prosecutors to investigate whether the bank's management and board members were involved in illegal financial activities, but as yet no executives from any of the Rebar Group companies have been charged.


    Taiwan's government sought to calm depositors' fears Sunday.


    "The deposits, no matter how high the amount, are all insured by the national treasury, so depositors should not hurry to withdraw their savings," Premier Su Tseng-chang told reporters Sunday.


    The government put a similar message on the front pages of several major newspapers Sunday. The advertisement bore the names of Finance Minister Ho Chih-chin, Central Bank Chairman Perng Fai-nan, and Shih Jun-ji, the chairman of the Financial Supervisory Commission.


    The Chinese Bank confirmed in a statement on Saturday that the government had taken over its management.


    The Great Chinese Bills Finance Corp. has not commented and its officials could not be immediately reached Sunday. Rebar Asia Pacific officials could also not be reached for comment Sunday.


    http://www.voy.com/64855/


    http://www.emfis.de/global/glo…g_warnt_vor_Panik_ID.html

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    Zitat

    Original von Schablonski


    Nur das mit der Immoblase versteh ich nicht? Wer soll deswegen $ zusammenkratzen und deswegen den $ zum Steigen bringen?
    Kannst du diesen Zusammenhang so erklären, daß sogar ich ihn verstehe?


    Schablonski, nicht Immoblase, sondern Kreditkontraktion infolge fallender Immobilienpreise!


    Gold up, Dollar down? Beware! Gold up and Dollar up May Be the Trend
    The assumption by most people in the financial industry is that a higher gold price depends on a lower dollar, and they think that gold is rising because of inflationary pressures. Actually, gold does well during inflationary and deflationary environments, while non-monetary commodities perform very poorly in a deflationary environment.
    As I said before, the ruling Anglo-American elite would rather see America enter another Great Depression than to relinquish its place as a world power. And so, I believe the die may be cast for the beginning of the Kondratieff winter. Time will tell, but I think Bob Hoye's comments this week relating to the dollar are well worth noting. Bob makes a point that is overlooked by almost everyone with the exception of Richard Russell from time to time-that the dollar could be the strongest currency against most if not all other currencies, even as the price of gold rises vis-à-vis all currencies. Do you wonder how that could be?
    As Bob frequently points out, the senior currency through history has been the strongest during a deflationary collapse because it is the one with the most debt. Debt represents a short position against a currency. When you borrow to buy a car or a house, you are, whether your realize it or not, taking out a short position against the dollar. What happens when the economy implodes or contracts and you either lose your job or fear you will as a result? What you will do is start to sell everything you don't need, for dollars. What happens what that takes place, en masse? You start to see the dollar rise, vis-à-vis all manner of items being dumped on the market. That is what will happen in America when Ian Gordon's Kondratieff winter bites hard. It is inconceivable to all but the oldest Americans because the rest of us have not witnessed that happening in America in any major way since the 1930s. But I believe it will happen again, which is why I think gold and paper currency-preferably under the mattress and not in shaky banking institutions guaranteed by a government that is itself increasingly shaky and in fact already bankrupt-are where you are going to want to have a major part of your money when this crisis hits.
    In any event, regarding the dollar short thesis and why the dollar could actually get stronger much to the surprise of most investors, here is what Bob Hoye had to say in this week's Pivotal Events:
    "As we like to contemplate, the very worst thing that could happen to policymakers would be a firming dollar.
    "This is based upon the doctrinaire practice of depreciation, which has been the universal remedy for any official concern. So if depreciation is good, appreciation is bad-particularly if the world is massively short dollars and long highly inflated asset prices.
    "The problem, as any speculator knows, is that the debt stays when prices suddenly fail. Typically, this then urgently compels offside players to sell assets to cover debt that suddenly makes cash (dollars) more important than formerly hot stories.
    "On the dollar relative to currencies, our view is that the majority of the global debt issued (there has been a debt bubble) has been underwritten in New York and payable in dollars.
    […]
    But the idea that the dollar could actually get stronger when people think policy makers can print unlimited quantities of this increasingly worthless paper is counterintuitive and thus hard for most people to fathom. The reason they don't understand is because they fail to realize that "debt is the raw material from which fiat money is created and as such, printing more of this debt money results in a larger and larger dollar short position. And so when the margin clerk calls for repayment of debt, everyone is forced to stampede out of the narrow exits at the same time to sell what ever they can to raise cash."
    So as you can see, despite my flirtation with inflation hedges and despite the fact that those investments have been very kind to our Model Portfolio this year, I remain a deflationist and worry about when we might want to exit from those investments. Ultimately, deflation will win. And I wonder also, based on Bob Hoye's work as well as more signs in my own Inflation/Deflation indicator (which was down again this week), whether we may be nearing a tipping point from inflation to deflation. Indeed, Bob noted that a steepening of the yield curve this past week could be hinting that a start of a cyclical bear market in base metals could be underway.


    http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/taylor091805.html


    ..........und..............


    http://f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/messages/334032.htm

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    Zitat

    Original von Eldorado



    So schnell geht das auch nicht, in 2009 vielleicht.
    Das ist mit zu optimistisch obwohl es gut fuer den POG waere.


    Das ist der Punkt, der mich an dem Artikel etwas stört. Wenn die derzeit in USA laufende Rezession in ein reiferes Stadium tritt, d.h. wenn durch weiter sinkende Immobilienpreise in vielen Fällen Unterdeckung der Hypotheken/Grundschulden entsteht und die USA dadurch ein deflatorisches Umfeld eintreten, könnte trotz der heißlaufenden Gelddruckmaschinen Cash King sein. Dann müssen nämlich Dollar unter allen Umständen weltweit zusammengekratzt werden, um dem Konkurs, der Zwangsversteigerung zu entgehen oder um Abgaben, Rechnungen, Zinsen, Tilgungen etc mit verminderten Einkommen berappen zu können. In dieser Phase könnte der Dollar sogar eine Zeitlang steigen!


    Für den POG in Dollar, aber insbesindere in Euro, wäre auch dieses Szenario gut, da die Zinsen fallen und die Realverzinsung noch tiefer in negatives Territorium vorstößt :) :)


    Gruß, Sil

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    International Forecaster January 2007 (#1) - Gold, Silver, Economy + MoreBy: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster


    -- Posted Sunday, 7 January 2007


    (...)
    We see the dollar at 70 to 72 or 55 to 59 before 2007 ends. That is based on the US dollar index USDX at 83.68. Below the surface of our financial markets and our economy lies a volcano that is ready to blow. The first 11 months of our current recession are over and the groundwork has been set for a tumultuous second and more severe segment of this recession. You must prepare as quickly as possible by eliminating as much debt as possible and investing as much money as is prudent into gold and silver related assets. This recession cannot be stopped even by lower interest rates and more copious amounts of money and credit. It is structural and it will cause Americans to lose a great deal of their wealth. You are facing stagnation and inflation, better known as stagflation. You are facing hyperinflation and a recession and ultimately depression. You have been warned – take action.
    (…)
    Gold came charging out of the gate Wednesday, up $7.60 and then el slamo, whammo. What happened! This time it wasn’t a fall in lease rates, it was a different attack. We discovered every time they used low lease rates that gold was attacked. They read our publication; they knew we knew what they were up too. So, it was back to the Working Group on Financial Markets – Exchange Stabilization Fund and the Repo Pool working in tandem. Drive the dollar up and the euro and pound down. Drive down oil and commodities. Attack gold and silver stocks first and then gold and silver by using derivatives and naked shorts on gold and silver. There you have it. That is what they did. It will last a few days and that is it, and off we go again. Isn’t it great having a corporatist fascist government?
    (…)
    We believe this is an all-out war on gold, silver, energy, commodities and the euro, pound and Canadian dollar. The Europeans are demanding a stronger dollar and they are getting it.
    (…)
    Louise Yamada was voted Wall Street’s best technical analyst from 2001-2004 in surveys by Institutional Investor. She has been right for 15 years. She now tells us that she sees gold over $730 this year and at $3,000 within 10 years. She says the metal’s inverse relationship to the dollar as a consistent reason to buy. She now is managing director at Yamada Technical Research and former head of technical research at Citigroup.
    (…)
    On Friday gold fit the same pattern as Thursday. Gold was up $1.50 three hours prior to the opening then unchanged at the opening. Then came the coordinated attack. We believe the whole situation was executed to strengthen the dollar. The attack on gold, silver, commodities and other currencies was made to complete the operation.
    (…)
    Word is Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson of Goldman Sachs has consulted Robert Rubin on a range of issues, including dollar policy. The recent dollar rally is a result of that meeting. This is not the 1990s. The financial and monetary situation is much, much worse.


    http://news.goldseek.com/Inter…Forecaster/1168212594.php


    Diese Attacken kann man fast schon Selbstmordkommandos nennen, wenn dadurch immer wieder Hedge-Funds in die Pleite getrieben werden!!!


    Gruß, Sil

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    (…)
    There are all sorts of untoward rumours circulating about
    "funds" that are in trouble, and we've no doubt but that there
    are one or two that are indeed in some sort of problematic
    situation that shall require "assistance" of some sort. Prices
    cannot fall this far this fast without one or two rather sizeable
    commodity trading groups finding themselves in an untoward
    position. We'll not speculate on who is in difficulty, nor shall
    we speculate on how problematic shall be the situation, for
    simply put, we know not. We know only that rumours are
    circulating, and we suspect that there is more than mere
    conjecture involved. If we must speculate, we'll point to the
    "long only" commodity funds as the most likely area of
    difficulty... how could it be otherwise?
    (…)
    What we need to understand about what has happened is
    that it will take weeks, and perhaps months, to overcome the
    damage done in the past several days. The "Funds" in
    question tend to follow rather simple moving average
    systems, despite what they will try to tell us are highly
    sophisticated, mathematical systems created with the help of
    highly educated mathematicians. The harsh reality is that
    when the smoke is blown away from these systems, they are
    at the core rather simple. The markets have fallen so swiftly
    that the real damage to their moving averages has lagged
    far behind. They are long, but their sell signals have not yet
    been elected. They will be, however, in the future. Thus, we
    face days... weeks... of liquidation of their long positions, and
    that liquidation shall weigh heavily upon prices, keeping
    them from bouncing too far. It is a system and a problem of
    their own devising, and it weighs heavily upon their
    shoulders... and upon the shoulders of the doctors, lawyers,
    accountants, dentists et al who "bought into" the
    "commodities-as-an- asset-class" thesis with alacrity. Now
    they are being spanked, and it hurts... badly:
    (...)
    Confusion still reigns regarding the central bank purchase
    earlier this week. There are any number of rumours still in
    the market as to which legacy central bank of Europe bought
    the gold in question and for what purpose. If we must
    speculate, we'll suggest that it was one of the newer EU
    nations who needed a bit of gold to bring its reserves closer
    to the levels of the other countries there, and that it was not
    Italy as so many had thought possible.
    (…)


    http://www.cfsfutures.com/images/E0067301/010507.pdf(800KB)


    Gruß, Sil

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    (...)
    The next two years will be absolutely giant for gold. You will make money you never dreamed of making. This is what betting parlance calls the lock – the-can’t-lose bet. The two biggest recipients will be gold and silver shares and numismatic coins, following by silver numismatics, and gold and silver bullion and bullion coins. Share multiples will go ballistic - $850 and $25 will be broken in 2007 and we may well see $1,700 and $100.
    (...)


    http://news.goldseek.com/Inter…Forecaster/1167850347.php


    :) :) :)
    Gruß, Sil