Zitat[i]
Eigentlich ist es auch gar nicht so wichtig wie hoch letztlich die Edelmetalle steigen.
@ Silber flo, für mich ist es schon wichtig, wie hoch Silber steigt. Ein Anstieg auf 15 USD in den nächsten 10 Jahren würde meine Investition verdoppeln, ein solcher auf 150 würde sie verzwanzigfachen. Ein kleiner Unterschied ist da schon gegeben 
ZitatAlles anzeigenOriginal von Henry
@Silviskonti
Leider ist mein englisch nicht so gut. Es gibt demnach private shortseller (das ist ja bekannt) die aber entgegen der Meinung von Butler dieses Silber auch physisch besitzen und horten. Wenn ich das so richtig verstanden habe, stellen sich mir ein paar Fragen.
Wer sind diese shortseller. Sind es private Leute oder steckt ein Land dahinter. Wenn es ein Land ist, welches kann es sein. Die USA sicher nicht. Sonst hätten sie nicht ihre hohen Lagerbestände abgebaut. Es kann auch nicht im Interesse der USA als fiat Geld Land sein. Somit scheiden auch die Verbündeten aus. Bliebe China. China wird ja auch von Butler als shortseller genannt. Doch die sind doch auch als Verkäufer aufgetreten. Also welches Land könnte es sein?
Blieben private Personen oder Firmen. Firmen würde ich auch ausschließen, da eine Hortung mit hohen Kapitalkosten verbunden ist. Zumal sich so etwa auch herum sprechen würde.
Blieben also Privatpersonen.
Oder mache ich einen Gedankenfehler?
Gruß Henry
Henry, Shortseller dürften auf jeden Fall die großen Bullionbanken wie GS und JPM sein. Des weiteren spricht Butler von einem Big Player in China. In konspirativen Kreisen geht die Überzeugung um, dass seit WK 2 von unbekannten Adressen (Eigentümer der FED 
Silber in ungeheuren Mengen akkumuliert wurde und wird. (Quelle vergessen) Zu gegebener Zeit soll dann der Silberpreis hochgejagt werden. Die Pleite einer Bank wird dann gerne in Kauf genommen - Hauptsache deren naked shorts lassen den Preis explodieren. Fekete ist da etwas anderer Ansicht. Er spricht von einem gewollten, aber kontrollierten Anstieg des POS.
Alles im dichten Nebel. Mehr kann ich dazu leider nicht sagen.
Gruss, Sil
ZitatOriginal von Vanescent
Danke für die aufschlussreiche Gegenüberstellung!
Hab mich genau mit diesen Fragen auch beschäftigt, verfolge die Artikel Fekete’s schon seit Längerem und neige dazu, der Argumentation Fekete’s mehr Glauben zu schenken.
Glauben deshalb, weil da einfach die nötigen Informationen fehlen...
Gruss
Vanescent, das ist richtig. Fekete stellt immer nur diese Behauptungen in den Raum, ohne Quellen zu nennen.
Friedmann wird mir langsam suspekt, weil er nie die bekannten Probleme der USA anspricht. Sogar Subprime und Immobilienkrise sind nur eine kleine Delle im langen Aufwärtstrend. Der Dollar geht seitwärts oder steigt sogar leicht und die US-Wirtschaft blüht. Schuldenberg, Handelsbilanzdefizit, Derivatengebirge und Heuschreckenproblematik hat er noch nie angesprochen. Deswegen hat sich ja auch in mir der Verdacht verfestigt, dass er (und sein Freund Butler) im Auftrag anderer handeln.
Gruss, Sil
Nach Meinung von Prof. Anatal Fekete, Jason Hommel und Reinhard Deutsch haben sich Gold/Silber in einem evolutionären Prozess über Jahrtausende zu Geld entwickelt und diese Funktion bis heute behalten, trotz jahrzehntelanger Demonetisierung in beiden Metallen.
Die Silberexperten Ted Butler und Israel Friedmann hingegen bestreiten, dass Silber (und Gold) heutzutage noch als Geld zu funktionieren in der Lage sind.
"Gold and silver have become money through an evolution as the most marketable goods. In more details, gold is most marketable in the large. This can also be expressed by saying that gold is more saleable than any other commodity. Silver is most marketable in the small. This can also be expressed by saying that silver, along with gold, is more hoardable than any other commodity. The Janus-face of marketability can be observed if we contemplate that gold is the preferred agent when one has to transfer value over space. The preferred agent in transferring value over time is silver followed by gold. We may clearly recognize the dual nature of money throughout history. In the ancient world money was cattle and salt. Cattle was most marketable in the large, while salt was most marketable in the small. Later two other commodities, far more similar to one another, took over these functions, but the dual nature of money has been maintained to this day, in spite of the silver and gold demonetization farce. This is no accident. Duality has to do with the paramount fact that space and time are absolute categories of human thought."
http://www.financialsense.com/…als/fekete/2007/0307.html
Sind die 9 Milliarden Unzen Silber, die seit WK 2 verbraten wurden, teilweise im sog. Silber-Carry-Trade, nunmehr von der Industrie verbraucht und als feiner Staub über den Planeten verteilt oder sind sie noch in Barren- und Münzenform vorhanden? Israel (Izzy) Friedmann wird nicht müde zu betonen, dass Silber knapp ist und irgendwann in die Shortage läuft. So geschehen wieder vorletzte Woche in seinem unnachahmlichen Slang:
"Author: izzy
Subject: Trading Air the metals. Number: 20762 :: Date/Time: 03-10-2007 :: 04:18
(…)
One think you have to undestand that the WORLD has GOLD suplay for the next 100 years, and in order to make GOLD as monitary invesment big changes has to be done, by the GOLD Consul!!!
SILVER is the only rare metal and we runnig aut of suplay in the future.People think that you have to buy big ammount of SILVER to have a chance to become rich??? Forgeted if I be right 1.000 ounce will settel a family for live. This chance you can\'t have in GOLD!!!
To invest in GOLD $13.000 and to have a chance to become rich???
Think that the moderen GOLD is SILVER!!!"
http://os2eagle.net/SSL/forum/index.php
Fekete hält dagegen und behauptet das genaue Gegenteil (im weiteren Fortgang des og. Artikels):
"The monetary metals are characterized by great stores above ground. The stock-to-flows ratio is a large multiple for gold. Silver analysts deny that the same holds for silver. They are at a loss to account for the disappearance of huge stockpiles of U.S. official silver in any other way but assuming that it has been dissipated through consumption. There is no hard evidence that this is indeed the case. We can account for the disappearance of monetary silver through a more plausible hypothesis, namely, that most of it has gone into hiding. It shall resurface at the right time and right price, as indeed some of it already has after the silver price hit a high of 15 dollars per ounce."
Die Preissfrage lautet nun: Wer liegt richtig, wer falsch? Fekete fährt fort mit seinen Ausführungen:
(...)
"Gold hoarding provides an escape for the individual from the harsh consequences of the predatory monetary and credit policies of the banks and the government as they plunge society into debt slavery. In the absence of the safeguards of a gold standard debt slavery is inevitable for those who fail to use the only prophylactic available: gold
(...)
The condition that obtains when the Futures price is above the spot, or the more distant futures price is above the nearby, is called contango and, the opposite, backwardation. Thus the basis is positive or negative according as the spot market is in contango or in backwardation. The prevalence of contango is a necessary condition for the warehousing business. Unless there is an expectation for contango to return after sporadic and temporary backwardation, warehousemen would go out of business and supplies for Future delivery would be all but unavailable.
The question arises what determines the basis. On the upside it is limited by carrying charges including freight, storage, insurance, and interest. In the case of gold and silver the lion’s share is interest. On the downside there is no limit: theoretically the basis can go negative and keep falling indefinitely. "
(…)
Er (Fekete) erklärt in vielen seiner nicht leicht zu lesenden Abhandlungen, dass der Zins das Bestechungsgeld ist, das Versprechen anstatt das Ding zu nehmen. Der Zins ist der Reif, der das Weltfinanzsystem ohne Goldstandard zusammenhält. Fällt der Realzins unter Null, wird das Ding genommen und das System ist bedroht. Contango und Backwardation haben bei den monetären Metallen Gold und Silber eine völlig andere Funktion als bei den übrigen Rohstoffen. Sie zeigen in diesem Fall nicht Knappheit/Überfluss an, sondern signalisieren, wie stark das System vom Absturz bedroht bzw. wie stabil es ist.
(...)
"The marginal bondholder who decides to sell his bonds in protest against low interest rates, and to invest the proceeds in gold, must not be depicted as Scrooge. He is a legitimate warehouseman who carries the hard core of social savings at a time when banks behave like drunken sailors on leave at the waterfront, and governments engage in compulsive overspending as if there was no tomorrow. The resulting capital destruction is appalling. After Armageddon no one but the warehouseman, alias gold investor, will be in the position to supply capital for reconstruction. Thank heaven for goldbugs. Without them we would have to go back and start from scratch as cavemen.
Backwardation can certainly occur, in particular, when supplies are drawn down just before the new crop of agricultural goods is ready to be brought in. However, backwardation for monetary metals is a gross anomaly, a red alert indicating potential breakdown of the payments system in the not-too-distant future.
(…)
Bull in bear’s skin
We must also exorcise the boogeyman of silver analysts: the naked short seller of monetary metals. The inordinate short interest in the futures markets is better explained in terms of the activities of a market maker whom I call ”bull in bear’s skin”. Typically, he is a super-wealthy individual who has learned the trick how to derive an income in gold on gold ─ even while retaining physical control over his holdings. He is not a naked seller by any stretch of the imagination. He does have the gold and silver, but keeps them at a safe distance from the commodity exchange and its predatory policies favoring the shorts at the expense of the longs. To his mind it pays to pose as a short. He hides his full armour underneath a mask showing him naked."
(...)
Sind die Short-Seller in Wirklichkeit Silber-Bullen im Bärengewand? Sind die hohen Shortbestände an COMEX und TOCOM gar nicht „naked”, sondern gedeckt durch über Jahrzehnte von den Short-Sellern akkumuliertes Silber (und Gold)? Und werden Sell-Outs in Papier-Silber von Zeit zu Zeit u.a. deswegen inszeniert, damit man billig an die Ware gelangt?
(...)
"Likewise, it is possible to harness the energy represented by the fluctuating price of gold and silver. The best way of doing this is to keep accumulating both monetary metals while maximizing the efficiency of hoarding. This means that one always buys the metal the hoarding of which is more efficient at the given price.
(...)
What to silver analysts appears as naked short selling is more likely the activities of bulls in bear’s skin. It is the tip of the iceberg that can be seen. What is not seen, the bulk of the iceberg, is dynamic hedging of ever increasing gold and silver hoards, and covered option writing, where the principal wants to stay anonymous. Needless to say the bull in bear’s skin is actually very happy that analyts believe, and spread the belief, that he is naked short. The longer he can keep his ”cover” as being ”naked”, the better it is for his operations.
It is futile and puerile to wait for the naked shorts to cover in a panic, sending the price through the roof. Cover yes, panic no. Make no mistake, this does not mean that the price may not go through the roof, but if it does, then it is also likely to go through the floor next time around when the pendulum swings back. It means that volatility is increasing. The get-rich-quick crowd, those who are ”insanely bullish on silver” waiting for the miracle of the silver price going to four digits overnight, will be frustrated. Rewards will go to the patient and industrious observer taking pains to study the market, and who has the right strategy that can handle the ever-increasing swings in the price both ways. He will not be dislodged from his long position when the pendulum swings back. He doesn’t subscribe to linear models. His guiding star is the non-linear model of the variation of basis.
Gold Standard University is working out a strategy following these principles, one applicable to small and big investors alike. It will be unveiled during the next session in August, 2007. At this point let’s just say that the strategy is essentially bimetallic arbitrage, but it uses the basis rather than the bimetallic ratio for clues."
(...)
Ist es für die Short-Seller im Moment effizienter, Akkumulation in Silber und Distribution in Gold zu betreiben als umgekehrt? Dafür spricht, dass die verfügbaren Bestände an Gold fünf mal höher liegen als diejenigen von Silber, hingegen Gold 50 mal höher notiert als Silber.
Wurde die ganze Silberstory um die „naked shorts” und die Butler-Rakete nur erfunden, um die horrenden physischen Silberbestände der Short-Seller zu vertuschen? Und sind Butler und Friedmann nur ganz kleine Rädchen im Räderwerk der Big Boys, die uns nicht alles sagen, was sie wissen?
Fragen, die mich bewegen und die mir bisher niemand beantworten konnte. Nicht mal Dosto’s hochkarätiger Silber-Thread
Sonntagsgruß
Sil
Dennis kauft noch mehr Gold
SPOT GOLD:
The trend is clearly "from the
lower left to the upper right." As
with our statement yesterday
regarding the gold ETF, one might
quibble with the fact that the high
made last May has not yet been
taken out and therefore the bull
market might be in jeopardy, but
the lows have been consistently
higher, and the volume does "come
in" on strength rather than on
weakness, and the 100 day moving
average is moving higher. For now,
we remain steadfastly bullish, and
today we are becoming more so,
adding to our current long positions
upon receipt of this commentary .
http://www.cfsfutures.com/images/E0067301/030807.pdf
Sil
Gartman verkauft Gold schon wieder teilweise
(…)
Regarding gold and the precious metals, despite the fact
that we are long term bulls of gold, we find it disconcerting
that spot gold has seemingly badly failed in the past two or
three days to push upward through $685-690. Whoever, or
whatever, the seller is at that level, it has been formidable
indeed. We care not who the seller is. GATA may, and
certainly GATA may make much of the implications that one
might draw from some nefarious, governmental force that is
the seller. We care not. That is an argument that neither
we nor they shall win. What is important is that gold has
failed to advance under circumstances that might otherwise
have been considered quite bullish of it. Collapsing share
prices would seem to be a positive for gold to many, but
from our perspective, for the moment it is bearish of it
instead. If Chinese shares continue under pressure, then
Chinese buyers shall be reticent about buying gold, and
may have little choice but to sell gold to raise cash and
capital where needed. Too, if the People's Bank of China
persists in raising interest rates, it is making the carrying
cost of gold rise while it is making investment opportunities
in debt securities become more competitive with gold.
(…)
3. Long of Four Units of Gold: We added to the trade
four weeks ago as gold traded above $653. Three weeks ago we added
another unit as spot gold traded above $662/oz, and Friday we added
another unit as gold traded approximately $676. We said we'd not add until
gold traded upward through $680 and then corrected. It did and we did,
and we've sat tight since then.
We are, however, going to surprise everyone today by
recommending that this position be cut by half upon
receipt of this commentary. Too many people are long of gold,
and we fear liquidation of gold by Chinese stock investors who find
themselves holding positions that are deteriorating by the hour, with the
need to raise liquidity growing rather more and more substantive as they
do. We remain long term bulls of gold, but for the moment, we are fearful of
what others may be forced to do, and we wish to act before they must.
(…)
http://www.cfsfutures.com/images/E0067301/030107.pdf
Gruß
Sil
Das werden POG und Dennis in den nächsten Wochen schon richten, keine Sorge 
THE GARTMAN LETTER L.C.
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
(...)
It is gold however that has had and still has our attention,
and gold had one of the most volatile sessions in our
memory yesterday. Within a one hour period, as the stock
market was falling, gold rallied $14/oz and then plunged
$30/oz as gold looked to be the only market with sufficient
liquidity... and with sufficient size... to enable speculators to
sell their holdings to raise capital needed to defend their
positions elsewhere. Was this, or is this liquidation in gold
fundamentally warranted? Does it make sense to liquidate
gold during a crisis such as this one? Shouldn\'t gold be
rising during a crisis rather than falling? The answers of
course are "No," No," and "Yes, of course;" however that is
not important. What is important is that liquidity and the
ability to raise cash trumps all other concerns at times such
as these. So as the old trading adage goes, "When they
raid the house of ill repute, the good girls and the piano
player also go to jail."
(...)
http://www.cfsfutures.com/images/E0067301/022807.pdf
Gruß, Sil
Wilsknacker, Tatsache ist, dass dieses grösste Ponzi Scheme aller Zeiten nur durch massive Geldzufuhr am Atmen erhalten werden kann, sonst implodiert es augenblicklich. Eine klassische Deflation wird es unter diesen Umständen, welche nur mit dem Turmbau zu Babel zu vergleichen sind, niemals geben. Print or die. Entweder Hyperinflation oder deflatory crash. Für beide Szenarien gibt es nur eine Lösung: Silber und Gold!
Gruß, SilVisconti
Es ist wie ein Stier-Rennen durch die Strassen von Pamplona und allen voran rennt das Cartel ums nackte Überleben.
(...)
That means the gold suppression cartel and their minions are still heavily short. Let’s hope the physical buyers stick it to them. There are big physical buyers in the market. Gold refused to back off today, which it should have. We are facing something very powerful to the upside. Let’s hope the shorts do not panic until we pass $730. We then have an immediate shot at $850. Let it be known that yesterday and today were two of the most important days in years for both gold and silver.
(…)
There are many major buyers in the market. Professionals, governments and we are told the Chinese via intermediataries. China and Taiwan open again on Monday after holidays and that should give the gold market some additional zip. This will supply additional pressure on the paper short and the derivative buyers. It will be like the bulls running through the streets of Pamplona in Spain with the cartel running in front of this trying to save themselves and their fortunes.
(…)
What is happening here is that the commercials are heavily short and the physical longs are so relentless that they cannot drive prices down to cover. The huge short positions make both metals wildly bullish. In the pits it is - every man for himself - and we can assure you once $730 breaks panic will ensue.
(…)
http://news.goldseek.com/Inter…Forecaster/1172443352.php
Gruß, Sil
ZitatOriginal von freefly
Niedrigste Neuverschuldung seit 2001 in BRD - Klasse gemacht, da können sich alle kräftig auf die Schultern klopfen. Und das in einem Wirtschaftsaufschung - tolle Leistung
Die größte Frechheit: Da hält der Steinbrück seine Birne in die Kamera und lügt: "Wir haben das Defizit halbiert"!!!!
ZitatOriginal von Rabbi Feingold
Seltsam, dass es immer noch Leute gibt, die irgendwelchen COTs oder angeblichen OI Beachtung schenken.
Wer den COTs Beachtung schenkte, ist jetzt leider außen vor. Es scheint, als ob du zu denen gehörst, denn Freude über schöne Gewinne kann ich aus deinen Worten nicht ableiten
Angenehmes Wochenende
Commercials on the Ropes [Blockierte Grafik: http://img.wallstreet-online.de/smilies/laugh.gif]
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.safehaven.com/images/maund/6963.gif]
Ein alter Hase wie Russell wird nicht so leicht ungeduldig. Auch der langjährige Anti-Goldbug Dennis Gartman, erstaunlicherweise seit kurzem „Gold long“, erklärte in seinen letzten Ausgaben, dass bei 668/670 jemand aufs Gold drückt:
Moving on to gold, we note that the resistance between $668-670 has proven formidable indeed, for gold has effectively traded within that range for the half day prior to writing yesterday's TGL and for the past full day. Once again, we've no idea who it is that is selling spot gold at $670, but it is someone of very real consequence and with very material selling to be accomplished. Once again, it may be a government, it may be a hedge fund, it may be miners hedging forward production because of bank agreements made on a project or two or three... it may be a combination of the above, or it may simply be very large 'specs' wishing to take profits on old long positions or wishing to get materially short.
THE GARTMAN LETTER L.C.
Friday, February 16, 2007
We note then that spot gold was holding above $670, which
we had considered to be strong resistance. Last week,
"someone" or "something" had been an aggressive seller of
gold on any move toward that level, but it would appear that
that seller has now been sated. However, we'd not be at all
surprised to see that seller return now that the long
weekend is passed.
THE GARTMAN LETTER L.C.
Tuesday, February 20, 2007
http://www.cfsfutures.com/images/E0067301/022007.pdf
Wenn ein Insider wie Gartman dies in seinem über 500 DL/Monat teuren Letter behauptet, so kann man davon ausgehen, dass es Realität ist.
Das ganze passt in das Bild, das Butler letzte Woche gemalt hat:
http://www.investmentrarities.com/02-12-07.html
(Übersetzung liegt jetzt bei Goldseiten vor)
Gruß, Sil
Hallo sidha,
Izzy’s Gute-Nacht-Geschichten gehören zum Feinsten. Der Bursche hat Fantasie und Durchhaltevermögen – auch während längerer Durststrecken. Ich lese seine Postings täglich mit wachsender Begeisterung. Nach längerem Mitlesen im EagleRanch-Forum brauchst du keinen Kurs mehr; der Slang ist dir in Fleisch und Blut übergegangen.
Gruß, Sil
Author: IZZY
Subject: Why ZIG ZAG in metal prices??? Number: 20469 :: Date/Time: 02-10-2007 :: 23:16 The milk machine is working over time by the BOYS. The metal prices are changing like you change socks.
How long you will buy break auts and liquidate under presure the Boys will lighten your pockets.
The real problem are the miners who are controld by the BOYS, and cooporate quietly, and the only penalty what will stop the BOYS to milk the investors and miners pocket is a SHORTAGE in material.
I can't see in the future a SHORTAGE in GOLD, and only SILVER is ready for a SHORTAGE baset on suplay demand.
The only clue is when the SHORTAGE of SILVER will come, and we will have advence notice????
Diferent opinion on this clue: some say that the BOYS will have advence notice, and we will see it in the market with a BULL spread and others like me who think it will come as suprise to the BOYS and the MINERS and the investors.
The explosion in SILVER prices will come like an earthquake what don't give you advence notice. All the teorys that some people make that on specific price we will find equalibrum in my opinion will be rong.
It will develope in short time a world panic for having SILVER. Today 1/10% of the world population have anny knowlege of the rarety of SILVER, and when the media will bring SILVER on the front news, the SILVER prices will lift like a roket.
When this is going to happen I go on vacation to a place where I can't know anny news, and come back after 6 weeks.
I hope that I write for the SILVER investors nice storys for the bed time. I repead don't speculate.
THANK YOU. THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY.
Author: IZZY
Subject: For rarety you will pay. (SILVER)
Number: 20473 :: Date/Time: 02-11-2007 :: 05:48
How long the suplay demand in SILVER is in ballance and not in a SHORAGE the price will be controlde by the BOYS.
When the shortage will come then you will recognize how rare is SILVER is in the world.
Rarety has value like DIAMONDS. 1 carat blue white D collor DIAMOND value $18.000 cost to pollish $40 so it selling for 450 times it\'s cost.
In one point years from know SILVER will be in the DIAMOND category,the common point RARETY!!!!
People pay for RARETY like DIAMONDS--PAYTINGS--COINS--STAMPS and manny others. SILVER is a special material RARE and needet. If you take inconsideration the RARETY of SILVER you can\'t today decide the Future value!!!!
Anny value that I say today will look pile in years to come.
THANK YOU. THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY.
http://os2eagle.net/SSL/forum/index.php
Gruß
Sil
THE GARTMAN LETTER L.C
Friday, February 9, 2007.
Finally, we remain bullish of gold as we have for a very long
while. We see no reason to believe that gold\'s bullish trend
shall soon be reversed, and indeed we think that the recent
several days during which spot gold traded between
$660-645 is nothing more than another solid consolidation
pattern from which gold will eventually break out to the
upside. We\'ll buy more gold outright long once spot gold
trades upward through $662 and remains there for an hour
or so in one of the major trading centres. The "legacy"
central banks of Europe appear to have withdrawn to the
sidelines, unwilling... or perhaps unable... to sell sufficient
gold each week to meet the quotas under the Washington
Agreement. This, we think, is really quite bullish.
At the moment we are
long and we shall remain so so
long as spot gold holds above
this 300 day moving average,
which does seem to define the
trend.
http://www.cfsfutures.com/images/E0067301/020607.pdf
Gr. Sil
