A trend of credit expansion has two components:
the general willingness to lend and borrow and the
general ability of borrowers to pay interest and
principal. These components depend respectively upon (1) the
trend of people’s confidence, i.e., whether both creditors
and debtors think that debtors will be able to pay,
and (2) the trend of production, which makes it either easier
or harder in actuality for debtors to pay. So as
long as confidence and production increase, the supply of
credit tends to expand. The expansion of credit ends when
the desire or ability to sustain the trend can no longer be
maintained. As confidence and production decrease, the supply
of credit contracts.The psychological aspect of deflation and depression cannot
be overstated. When the social mood trend changes from optimism
to pessimism, creditors, debtors, producers and consumers
change their primary orientation from expansion to conservation.
As creditors become more conservative, they slow their lending.
As debtors and potential debtors become more conservative,
they borrow less or not at all. As producers become more conservative,
they reduce expansion plans. As consumers become more conservative,
they save more and spend less. These behaviors reduce the
"velocity" of money, i.e., the speed with which
it circulates to make purchases, thus putting downside pressure
on prices. These forces reverse the former trend.
The structural aspect of deflation and depression is also
crucial. The ability of the financial system to sustain increasing
levels of credit rests upon a vibrant economy. At some point,
a rising debt level requires so much energy to sustain - in
terms of meeting interest payments, monitoring credit ratings,
chasing delinquent borrowers and writing off bad loans - that
it slows overall economic performance. A high-debt situation
becomes unsustainable when the rate of economic growth falls
beneath the prevailing rate of interest on money owed and
creditors refuse to underwrite the interest payments with
more credit.
When the burden becomes too great for the economy to support
and the trend reverses, reductions in lending, spending and
production cause debtors to earn less money with which to
pay off their debts, so defaults rise. Default and fear of
default exacerbate the new trend in psychology, which in turn
causes creditors to reduce lending further. A downward "spiral"
begins, feeding on pessimism just as the previous boom fed
on optimism. The resulting cascade of debt liquidation is
a deflationary crash. Debts are retired by paying them off,
"restructuring" or default. In the first case, no
value is lost; in the second, some value; in the third, all
value. In desperately trying to raise cash to pay off loans,
borrowers bring all kinds of assets to market, including stocks,
bonds, commodities and real estate, causing their prices to
plummet. The process ends only after the supply of credit
falls to a level at which it is collateralized acceptably
to the surviving creditors.
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![[smilie_happy]](https://goldseiten-forum.com/wcf/images/smilies/smilie_happy_058.gif "smilie_happy"){kind=small}
Und von einer Situation wie in diesen Ländern sind wir z.B. in Deutschland noch weit entfernt. 
