Beiträge von GSP-Komet

Ein Ratio bedeutet wie das Wort schon sagt, eine Verhältniszahl.

Ein Ratio von 0,353836 bedeutet, das der S&P 500 gegenüber dem Goldpreis überbewertet ist und das Gold gegenüber dem S&P 500 unterbewertet ist.

@Illu:

Also wenn du umsteigen willst, aus Aktien von dem S&P 500 aussteigen und dir physisches Gold kaufen willst, wie ich es dir empfehlen würde, dann mußt du die Aktien verkaufen und dir physisches Gold kaufen.

Wie gesagt, ein Ratio bedeutet eine Verhältniszahl, die dir jederzeit anzeigen wird, was über- bzw. unterbewertet ist!

Für den 02. Juli halte ich einmal folgende Werte fest:

Gold in Euros: 323,10
Gold in US-$: 398,20
EUR/US-$ 1,2323

Der Euro stand am 25.06 gegenüber dem US-$ bei 1,2182 und notiert aktuell bei 1,2323. Er ist also gegenüber dem 25,06. um 0,0141 gestiegen.

Der Goldpreis in Euros stand am 25.06. bei 330,77 und notiert aktuell bei 323,10. Er ist also in Euros gegenüber dem 25.06. um 7,67 gefallen

Der Goldpreis in US-$ stand am 25.06. bei $402,10. Er ist also in US-$ gegenüber dem 25.06. um 3,90 gefallen.

Wenn der Euro konstant geblieben wäre bei 1,2182 dann hätte man erwarten können, das wenn der Goldpreis in Euros um 7,67 fällt, das dann der Goldpreis in US-$ um 9,343594 fällt.

Der Goldpreis in US-$ ist aber nur um 3,90 gefallen. Hier können wir das erste Mißverhältnis sehen. Der Goldpreis ist gegenüber dem Euro übermäßig stark gefallen. Dieses läßt mich darauf schließen, das der Goldpreis gegenüber dem Euro in der nächsten Zeit stärker ansteigen müßte. weil er ein gutes Stück auf zu holen hat.

Der Euro ist gegenüber dem US-$ von 1,2182 auf 1,2323 angestiegen, also hätte man erwarten können, das wenn der Goldpreis in Euro bei 330,77 konstant geblieben wäre, das die Steigerung um 1,41 Cents alleine für eine Steigerung bei dem Goldpreis in US-$ um ca. 4,66 hätte sorgen müssen.

Der Goldpreis in US-$ ist aber von 402,10 auf 398,20 gefallen. Hier können wir das zweite Mißverhältnis sehen. Der Goldpreis in US-$ ist bei einem steigenden Euro (gegenüber dem US-$) gefallen. Dieses läßt mich darauf schließen, das der Goldpreis gegenüber dem US-$ in der nächsten Zeit stärker ansteigen müßte, weil er gegenüber dem Euro ein gutes Stück aufzuholen hat.

Zusammenfassung:

Der Euro ist gegenüber dem US-$ um 1,41 Cents gestiegen.

Der Goldpreis in US-$ ist um 3,90 gefallen.

Der Goldpreis in Euros ist um 7,67 gefallen.

Schlußfolgerung:

Dieses paßt nach meiner Meinung überhaupt nicht zusammen.

Nach meiner Meinung wird der Goldpreis in der nächsten Woche stark ansteigen müssen. Sein Anstieg müßte dabei in Euro wesentlich stärker ausfallen als in US-$.

Öl : Gold Ratio:

38,39 : 398,20 = 0,0964088

Das Öl : Gold Ratio beträgt zur Zeit ca. 0,09.

Dieses ist nur eine Darstellung von einem Ratio!

Das Gold : S&P 500 Ratio erhält man indem man den Preis von einer Unze Gold in US-$ durch den S&P 500 teilt.
Das Resultat ergibt das Gold : S&P 500 Ratio, oder die Kosten von dem S&P 500 in Goldunzen.

398,20 : 1.125,38 = 0,353836

Dieses Ratio beträgt aktuell ca. 0,35.

DJIA : Gold Ratio

10.282,83 : 398,20 = 25,823279

Dieses bedeutet, das wir 25,823279 Unzen Gold benötigen um den Dow Jones zu kaufen.

Gold:XAU Ratio = 4,5644199

$398,20 : 87,24 = 4,5644199

Gold:HUI Ratio = 2,0808946

398,20 : 191,36 = 2,0808946

$Gold:$Silver Ratio

aktuell: 66,47 gestiegen um 0,83 (66,47 - 65,64 = 0,83)

50-day SMA: 66,15 gestiegen um 0,96 (66,15 - 65,19 = 0,96)

200-day SMA: 66,70 gefallen um 0,19 (66,70 - 66,83 = -0,13)

Schlussfolgerung:

Der Goldpreis ist in der letzten Wochen stärker angestiegen als der Silberpreis.

"About six months ago, I predicted that silver miners would start using silver as money. A few have begun to do so. Within the next six months, I predit that not only will many more silver miners do this, but soon, the insurance companies will start buying silver and gold bullion and stocks. Like the silver companies, it will start with some of the smallest insurance companies, and then, demand will grow from there as price performance will force others to join our party.

A lot of people think they will wait until after silver really begins to rise in price, and then they plan to buy silver. What these people do not realize is how hard it is to find silver bullion in bulk, even today. Please call your local coin dealer, and visit his shop. Ask him how much silver bullion he has available right now—not how much he can buy for you. They will always promise to be able to deliver the moon. But some dealers are now saying there is a one-month wait, or a 6-week wait, some even refusing orders, especially the big orders. Imagine if ten times as many investors decide to buy silver, so that not 1 in 1000 investors are buying silver like today, but 1 in 100. Will the wait for silver bullion extend to ten months, or 60 weeks? Or will the price rise substantially? Think about it."

aus:

Overvalued housing, bonds, and stocks.
by Jason Hommel
goldismoney.com
Friday, July 2, 2004

Housing, bonds, and stocks, in general, are very overvalued.

hxxp://www.goldismoney.com/ssr/overvalued.htm

"The U.S. bond market is $20 trillion. But all the gold ever mined in the history of the world is a mere $1.9 trillion at $400/oz., and the remaining identifiable silver supplies of 200-600 million ounces, at $6/oz. is a mere $1.2 to $3.6 billion, not trillion."

"The U.S. government has a $700 billion annual deficit, and that number likely excludes the interest on the debt, which, since the days of Clinton, has been excluded from the numbers. So, the actual deficit may be much higher. "

"Unfortunately, perhaps one investor in 1000 owns any substantial holdings of silver bullion, which proves it’s such a great price.
Gold has been moving up in value from $255/oz in 1999-2001 to $400/oz. today, and remains seriously undervalued. Gold is less than half the price it was in 1980, and since 1980, M3, the best measure of money supply, the money in U.S. banks, has exploded upwards five times from $1.8 trillion to $9.1 trillion. Thus, the inflation adjusted price of gold in 1980, of $850/oz. is really $4250 per ounce, and I have no reason to think the gold price will stop there once the price begins to head there. If the money in the banks was truly backed by U.S. gold, the price would exceed $35,000/oz. or exceed $110,000/oz. if you include bonds with that."

Öl gefallen, US-$ gestiegen, Gold gefallen. Nun für wie lange glaubst du wirklich wird der US-$ eine Rallye machen? Wie viel unter $36 pro Barrel glaubst du wirklich kann das Crude gehen?

Die Antwort lautet in beiden Fällen nicht weit und nicht für lange. Das beste ist wie Inflation ein willkommenes Ereignis sein kann, weil es Jobwachstum reflektiert.

Die Aktionäre von dem breiten Aktienmarkt sind im Delirium bei ihrem Willkommen heißen von all diesen Vorboten im Voraus. Bist du es auch?

Bald wird der US-$ fallen und das Gold steigen. Die COT sind getrieben durch ihre Bemühungen das Gold unter $41O zu halten bis zum 1. Juli und dann werden sie fleißig sein im Juli bei $438 bei ihrem Versuch das Gold unter $440 zu halten bis zum 1. August. Was für ein Bündel von Clowns.

@goldistgold

Nur wenn jemand eine andere Meinung als du hast, heißt das noch nicht das der andere "keine Ahnung" hat oder "Dummpusherei" betreibt.

Zeige mir eine Stelle, die dich darauf schließen läßt, das dich hier berechtigt "keine Ahnung " zu schreiben. Als Betriebswirt habe ich gelernt wissenschaftlich zu arbeiten, dieses bedeutet u.a. das man weiß wo etwas steht, bzw. wie man an diese Informationen heran kommt.

Mir kommt es vor, das ich mit diesem Thread ziemlich deinen Nerv getroffen habe. Weil du wahrscheinlich noch Puts bei dem Öl hast. Ich sage dir hiermit voraus, das du nur noch ein paar Tage hast um dich ein zu decken.

Ich sage hiermit vor dem Winter 2004 bei dem NY Crude light einen Preis von über $55 voraus.

Es ist keine Art, anderen Leute seine Meinung aufzwingen zu wollen, wenn sie auch noch so falsch ist und du liegst mit deiner Einschätzung aktuell ziemlich daneben.

Bzw. ist es keine Art wenn man meint richtig zu liegen und man stößt auf eine andere Meinung, diese Meinung mit "keine Ahnung" oder "Dummpusherei" ab tun zu wollen. Ich weiß sehr wohl worüber ich schreibe. Ob du das von dir behaupten kannst, mußt du mit dir selber ausmachen.

Less aggressive: “With inflationary pressures starting to pick up, it’s a bit more of a two-way street as to what you should let your currency do,” Standard Chartered Bank currency strategist Claudio Piron said.

“I think that is perhaps a rationale why we may see Asian central banks being less aggressive in terms of supporting the dollar in coming quarters, especially if oil prices remain high.”

Prospective US rate rises have pushed the current account deficit into the background, but it should reappear as the market becomes more comfortable with rising rates.

“We would argue that the latest trade, current account and balance of payments data dramatically emphasise the negative case for the dollar,” Jim O’Neill, head of global research at Goldman Sachs, said in a report.

Goldman Sachs estimates that to cut the current account deficit to three percent of GDP from about five percent now, the dollar would need to fall by about 20 percent.

Looking at the dollar from another angle, Goldman Sachs reckoned that a 31 percent fall would be needed to make US assets attractive enough for foreigners to support it.

In recent years Asia has blocked such a correction for fear of losing export competitiveness. So in the first quarter, for example, the United States could turn to Asia to fund its current account needs of $1.6 billion a day.

US assets: In these three months Japan spent a record 14.83 trillion yen — about $138 billion based on the average dollar/yen rate for the quarter — trying to prop up the dollar. All up, foreign exchange reserves at Asia’s central banks rose by $247 billion in the first quarter. Most of that is thought to have been invested in US assets.

Asian central banks have already scaled down their dollar buying, but not because of inflation.

Instead, the reason appears to have been that the dollar rose in April and May because investors bet on an early rise in US interest rates. So intervention was not needed to hold Asian currencies down.

Since March, Japan has not intervened. Excluding China, which has not released figures yet, Asian central bank reserves rose by only $2 billion in the two months to May 31. Economists expect the intervention to strengthen again — and it certainly will not disappear entirely — but inflation should prevent Asia’s central banks from being such willing financiers of the US current account. —Reuters

Dollar at risk as inflation deters Asian intervention

SINGAPORE: The US dollar may be heading for a big fall, with analysts saying that rising inflation will force Asian central banks to cut the currency intervention that has been financing the massive US current account deficit.

“The price to pay for the type of intervention we saw last year...is typically that you get inflationary pressure,” said Jan Lambregts, Rabobank’s head of Asia-Pacific research.

“Last year that price did not have to be paid, but this time around, in an environment where inflationary pressure is on the rise, such intervention could really throw fuel on the fire.”

Last week’s record US current account deficit of $144.9 billion for the first quarter was a reminder to markets fixated on next week’s US Federal Reserve meeting that the United States still has a funding problem.

In 2003 the United States ran a current account deficit of $530.6 billion — broadly, the imbalance between its exports and imports and the income it received from or paid to foreigners.

Asian central banks were happy to finance that deficit by buying US dollar assets, such as Treasury bonds, to hold down their currencies and keep their exports competitive. In 2003, they increased their foreign exchange reserves by almost $520 billion.

That intervention occured when deflation was a worry for much of Asia, which was also struggling with the impact of the war in Iraq and the SARS outbreak.

Now deflation has gone in most Asian countries, where prices are not only rising but accelerating. On Wednesday, China said inflation was moving to near five percent, a rate seen as a possible trigger for a rate rise, while Singapore reported its highest inflation rate since December 2000.

Allowing a currency to strengthen is one way to slow an economy and hold down inflation. Intervening to hold a currency down, on the other hand, tends to pump up the amount of money in the economy, stoking inflation.

The Upcoming Blowoff 5th Wave in Oil (and Gold)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/rosen/rosen062804.html

New Coeur offer $5.47 Canadian

Under the offer, Wheaton River shareholders may elect to receive either:

C$5.47 per Wheaton River common share in cash (as compared to the C$5.00 per share previously offered), subject to the maximum cash consideration previously announced; or
0.796 shares of Coeur common stock or 0.796 exchangeable shares of a Canadian subsidiary of Coeur, for each Wheaton River common share tendered (as compared to the 0.731 shares previously offered).

Press Release Source: Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation

Coeur Significantly Increases Offer to Wheaton River Shareholders
Tuesday June 29, 7:02 am ET
Increased Offer Represents 23% Premium over Current Wheaton River Share Price and 13% Premium over IAMGold Proposal
Coeur Urges ALL Wheaton River Shareholders to Vote AGAINST IAMGold Proposal on Coeur's GREEN Proxy Card by Wednesday June 30th

COEUR D'ALENE, Idaho, June 29 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation (NYSE: CDE - News) today announced that it has increased its offer for Wheaton River Minerals Ltd. (Amex: WHT - News; TSX: WRM - News).

Under the offer, Wheaton River shareholders may elect to receive either:

* C$5.47 per Wheaton River common share in cash (as compared to the C$5.00 per share previously offered), subject to the maximum cash consideration previously announced; or
* 0.796 shares of Coeur common stock or 0.796 exchangeable shares of a Canadian subsidiary of Coeur, for each Wheaton River common share tendered (as compared to the 0.731 shares previously offered).

Aside from the increase in consideration, the previously announced terms and conditions of Coeur's offer remain unchanged. The terms of the offer will be set forth in definitive tender offer documents.

Coeur offers Wheaton River shareholders superior value:
* Coeur's offer represents a premium of 38% over Wheaton River's closing
stock price, based upon closing stock prices on May 27, 2004, the date
of Coeur's initial proposal.
* Coeur's offer provides Wheaton River shareholders with C$4.63 per
Wheaton River share(1), representing a premium of 23% over Wheaton
River's closing stock price of C$3.76 per share, based upon closing
stock prices on June 28, 2004.
* Coeur's offer represents a premium of 35% and 13% over the IAMGold
proposal based on closing stock prices as of May 27, 2004 and
June 28, 2004, respectively.

Dennis E. Wheeler, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Coeur, said, "We have always believed that Coeur's offer is extremely compelling for all Wheaton River shareholders from both a strategic and financial perspective. Our offer includes a significant cash component, and today we are further enhancing the total value of our offer. We believe the choice for Wheaton River shareholders is now even clearer -- Coeur's offer is without question the superior alternative to the IAMGold proposal."

Mr. Wheeler continued, "We have been meeting with and listening to Wheaton River's shareholders and we remain fully committed to making the Coeur-Wheaton River combination a reality. We intend to take our revised offer directly to Wheaton River shareholders following defeat of the IAMGold proposal at the July 6th Special Meeting of Wheaton River shareholders."

Coeur's increased offer provides Wheaton River shareholders with significantly greater value than the proposed IAMGold plan of arrangement, including a substantial cash component. Coeur also offers Wheaton River shareholders better growth prospects, significantly greater trading liquidity, higher operating synergies and significant management operational expertise.

"Now is the time for the Wheaton River shareholders to act," added Mr. Wheeler. "Coeur's clearly superior offer will be available only if shareholders defeat the IAMGold proposal by voting AGAINST at the July 6th Special Meeting. We strongly recommend that Wheaton River shareholders vote AGAINST the proposed IAMGold transaction on Coeur's GREEN proxy card by Wednesday, June 30th."

Wheaton River Shareholder Voting Instructions

Coeur urges all Wheaton River shareholders to vote AGAINST the proposed IAMGold plan of arrangement on Coeur's GREEN proxy card at Wheaton River's reconvened Special Meeting of Shareholders scheduled for July 6, 2004.

The early cutoff for voting proxies is 11:00 am (Toronto time) on July 2, 2004. Due to the Canadian holiday on July 1, 2004, Coeur urges beneficial shareholders in Canada to fax or deliver Coeur's GREEN proxy card voting AGAINST via overnight express to their intermediary by NOON on June 30, 2004. Coeur urges beneficial shareholders in the United States to vote by telephone/ internet or deliver Coeur's GREEN proxy card voting AGAINST via overnight express to their intermediary by NOON on July 1, 2004. If shareholders have any questions about how to vote, revoke or change their vote, please call MacKenzie Partners, Inc. at 1-800-322-2885 (toll-free) or 212-929-5500 (call collect).

CIBC World Markets Inc. and JP Morgan are acting as co-financial advisors to Coeur.

Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation is the world's largest primary silver producer, as well as a significant, low-cost producer of gold. The Company has mining interests in Nevada, Idaho, Alaska, Argentina, Chile and Bolivia.

Under the terms of the increased offer, IAMGold shareholders would receive:

• 1.25 Golden Star shares per IAMGold share; OR

• 1.15 Golden Star shares plus C$0.50 cash per
IAMGold share (maximum cash of
approximately US$56 million)

In addition, Golden Star will pay a further C$0.20 in cash per IAMGold share (total cash of
approximately US$22 million) to the IAMGold shareholders in the event that no break fee is
paid or payable to Wheaton River Minerals Ltd. (“Wheaton River”) in accordance with the
Amended and Restated Agreement between IAMGold and Wheaton River dated April 29, 2004
(the “Wheaton River Arrangement”). The additional C$0.20 per IAMGold share cash payment,
if made, will be paid to tendering IAMGold shareholders at such time as it is definitively
determined that no break-fee is paid or payable to Wheaton River. There can be no assurance
that the C$0.20 per IAMGold share payment will be made or of the timing of any such payment.
Golden Star’s increased offer (excluding the additional C$0.20 per IAMGold share cash
payment) represents a premium of 23% to the IAMGold closing share price on May 27, 2004, the
last trading day prior to the announcement of Golden Star’s initial proposal. Based on the
closing share prices for Golden Star and IAMGold on March 30, 2004, the increased offer is
equivalent to C$11.15 per IAMGold share, which is significantly higher than the C$9.82 per
IAMGold share “Superior Proposal” threshold in the Wheaton River Arrangement.

New GSS offer for IAG

Under the terms of the increased offer, IAMGold shareholders would receive:
• 1.25 Golden Star shares per IAMGold share; OR
• 1.15 Golden Star shares plus C$0.50 cash per IAMGold share (maximum cash of
approximately US$56 million)

goldistgeld und gogh

Schaut einmal darauf, wann dieser Thread eröffnet wurde.

Ich sage es noch einmal:

Ab hier wird der Ölpreis nicht mehr weiter herunter gehen.

Wir stehen bei dem Gold und bei dem Öl kurz vor der Welle 5 nach oben!

Der Close bei dem Nj Light Crude Oil C am 25. war 37,55. Wer es nicht glaubt schaut hier:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/rosen/rosen062804/0.jpg

Übrigens stehen wir kurz vor der Welle 5 bei dem Nj Light Crude Oil C mit einem dazu gehörigen steil ansteigendem Goldpreis.

The Upcoming Blowoff 5th Wave in Oil (and Gold)

Ron Rosen
June 28, 2004

hxxp://www.321gold.com/editorials/rosen/rosen062804.html

Zitat:

" As I see it everything necessary to produce a "Fifth Wave" extended "BLOWOFF" is in place. The only thing left is to witness it unfolding... If it is to happen it should start within days. "

Das Öl wird nicht mehr billiger werden!

Das Gold ist auf $410, $440 und $480 gerichtet.

Das Gold und der US-$ (gemeint: USDX) werden im umgekehrten Verhältnis Tick um Tick gehandelt. Der US-$ (gemeint: USDX) ist ein Verlierer, so vergeßt ihn einfach.

Juni = $410
Juli = $440
August = $480

Der US-$ (gemeint: USDX) ist die allgemeine Aktie von der USA Inc. und seine Gewinnperformance, welche das Triple Defizit repräsentiert, stinkt zum Himmel und dort gibt es keine Erleichterung bei diesem Geruch. Der breakdown von dem US-$ (gemeint: USDX) aus dem steigenden Keil ist eine klassiche Bearbewegung, die eine gemessene Bewegung von zuletzt dem alten Tief ergibt.

Deshalb ist es vernünftig zu erwarten, das das Gold zuletzt das alte Hoch von diesem Bullmarkt erreicht.

Ich erwarte höhere Goldpreise, weil der US-$ (gemeint: USDX) in diesem Sommer sein altes Tief nach unten durch brechen wird.