Hallo zusammen,
habe einen netten Kommentar gefunden, der den historischen Goldpreis und den per Inflation errechneten Goldpreis zeigt.
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Das zeigt nur mal wieder dass wir noch VIEL MEHR LUFT nach oben haben.
Grüssle,
Silversurfer
.. und es geht auch heiter weiter.
Der Dezember scheint ein heisser Monat zu werden.
Dear Friends:
Lars Lindgren sent me a fax today asking about the potential for a large amount of gold being taken for delivery in the December future month settlement.
The 7,638 Comex gold contracts (see Delivery Notices) represents 736,800 ounces of gold whose present value at $450 represents a monetary value of $331,560,000 which is a significant take down on delivery.
If this is the beginning of a trend in delivery take down, then the price of gold is headed much much higher.
Trader Dan Comments:
Just got your fax as well concerning what appears to be 7,638 gold contracts being stopped which means taken delivery of. I am not sure. Looking at the delivery notices finds Bank of Nova Scotia as the big tender party (making delivery or obligated to).
It sure appears that someone is stopping them all. AIG, Deutsche Bank and HSBC are the largest stoppers (taking delivery). It is hard to say WHO they are accepting them for. I think what we need to watch is whether or not they RE-TENDER them. If not - this is amazing!
Here's the warehouse stocks data from the Nymex this afternoon Jim.This bears watching. What I will start doing is to track this info daily and let's see what names are standing for delivery and who is tendering to see if we can figure out what is going on.
A side note: HSBC is the tenderer of size in the silver contract (1,043 out of 1,391) and yet are among the larger stoppers in gold. That's interesting. Not sure what to make of that.
PARTY ON PEOPLE!!!!!
Grüssle,
Silversurfer
Hallo zusammen,
habe eine nette Chartanalyse gefunden:
Hier der Link.
http://www.contrarianthinker.com/Junction.htm
Ich bin und bleibe bullish.
Der Hauptgrund ist der COMEX Silberlagerbestand, der kontinuierlich abnimmt.
Silversurfer
Hallo zusammen,
hier mal ein schönes Bild.
siehe den Tagskommentar zu heute.
http://www.contrarianthinker.com/
ich finde es einfach gut wenn ein Ausbruch aus einem symetrischen Dreieck nochmals getestet wird.
Hier ein Bericht den ich recht gut finde.
Man ist sehr häufig geprägt von irgend welchen "Zahlen".
Das stellt alles ein bisschen in ein anderes Licht.
Kenneth J. Gerbino
Archives
Kenneth J. Gerbino & Company
Investment Management
November 11, 2004
The $430-$435 price level that everyone is talking about as a major resistance level for gold is based on prior highs in 1990, 1993, and 1996.
There is a big problem with this concept. Those days are gone.
Since then money supply, trade deficits, debt levels and world government budget deficits have mushroomed. Inflation at just 2% per year since 1993 (to use as a mid-point) would equal an increase in the gold price to $535.
Therefore there are no real-world comparisons to support the paranoia about the $430 level.
What is real is that gold has had a big run up in the last 6 months and yes it may need a rest. Also with the dollar being very weak and most likely oversold the last few weeks, gold may rest or back off here. But these are small waves hitting the beach. The tide is more important, and the economic tide says gold goes a lot higher. Buy on sell-offs.
Again using 1993 as a mid-point, since then:
M2 Money Supply is up 85%
Trade Deficits were running $100 billion a year, now they are $600 billion
Debt as Percent of GDP was 240%, now over 300%
China and India as economic powers have almost doubled their GDP
Government Debt globally has increased by Trillions
There are plenty more statistics, but I am off to catch a plane to address the RMG Mining Trade Group Conference in Stockholm with the London Royal School of Mines and Barclays Bank. I will be sure to let them know this conclusion... lots of people may be selling at these levels but the fundamentals, which are reality, are opposite to any interpretation of the long-term graph. The long-term graph is measuring a totally different world we left behind 10 years ago.
Please visit our website for more articles on gold, mining shares and the economy .
10 November 2004
Kenneth J. Gerbino
Archives
Kenneth J. Gerbino & Company
Investment Management
9595 Wilshire Boulevard, Suite 303
Beverly Hills, California 90212
Telephone (310) 550-6304
Fax (310) 550-0814
E-Mail: kjgco@att.net
Website: http://www.kengerbino.com
321gold Inc
DANKE!!!
@alle.
Die Chinesen bereiten etwas vor.
Das könnte für die für die Freunde des Edelmetalls spassig werden.
=DJ CHINA WATCH:Yuan Talk Spreads Through Population
2004-11-11 01:39 (New York)
SHANGHAI (Dow Jones)--Expectations for a revaluation of China's yuan are
spreading from the financial markets into the population at large, as ordinary
Chinese scramble to exchange their holdings of U.S. dollars.
In recent months, global currency markets have increasingly bet China will
soon loosen its de facto peg of the yuan to the dollar, allowing the local
currency to rise. The offshore market in non-deliverable yuan forwards now
shows expectations that the dollar will fall to CNY7.937 in 12 months - a yuan
rise of 4.3% from the "peg" rate of CNY8.2770.
In the past few weeks, masses of Chinese individuals have begun joining the
bet as small businessmen, housewives, retirees and others with U.S. dollar
savings flock to banks or underground money changers.
That marks a big change of outlook in China, where U.S. dollars have
traditionally been held in bank accounts or under matresses as a safe hedge
against volatility in the domestic economy.
"People around me have been telling me that the yuan will soon appreciate and
that the U.S. dollar is at risk of depreciating, so in the end I decided to
change all the U.S. dollars I have," said a Shanghai housewife in her 40s who
asked only to be identified as Wang.
Every month Wang receives a remittance of U.S. dollars from her son, who
lives abroad after going overseas to study. Though currency regulations may
make it hard to obtain large amounts of U.S. dollars if she needs them in
future, "at a minimum one can be sure the yuan won't depreciate while talk of
the dollar depreciating is growing, and safety is the main thing for me," Wang
said.
That reasoning appears to be taking hold in China's urban centers.
Conversions of U.S. dollars into yuan by individual customers at the Shanghai
branch of Bank of China, one of the country's big four commercial banks, surged
17% in September from US$180 million in August, and ballooned a further 34% in
October, according to a commercial banker.
Local media have reported similar strong interest in selling U.S. dollars at
commercial bank branches in the eastern Chinese cities of Nanjing, Suzhou and
Hangzhou over the past couple of weeks.
If this pattern is being duplicated nationwide, U.S. dollar sales by Chinese
individuals may have increased by many hundreds of millions of dollars per
month over the past two months.
Although data on Chinese individuals' total holdings of U.S. dollars aren't
regularly provided, their foreign currency deposits totaled US$88.5 billion in
late 2002, according to a report by the official Xinhua News Agency.
According to some banking sources, some bank branches have in recent months
imposed a limit of US$10,000 on the amount of U.S. dollars that an individual
can exchange each day, in an effort to prevent the scramble from overwhelming
them.
Small and medium-sized Chinese businesses are part of the trend. According to
figures from the Chinese Banking Regulatory Commission's branch in the rich
eastern province of Jiangsu, corporate deposits of U.S. dollars in the province
increased by US$1.17 billion in the first 10 months of this year - but in the
last month of that period they increased by only a few million dollars,
representing a dramatic slowdown in growth.
The currency black market is also caught up in the scramble. Among the
illicit currency traders who loiter near the doors of commercial bank branches
in Shanghai's Bund district, there's talk that an increasing number have
actually been entering the branches to dump their U.S. dollar holdings.
The black market appears to be handling a significant amount of the increased
U.S. dollar sales; the State Administration of Foreign Exchange has issued
repeated warnings that it will crack down on illegal currency traders, and this
week it said investigations had exposed an underground bank in Fujian province
illegally shifting large amounts of foreign currency.
Fourteen people were arrested and 22 bank accounts with combined deposits of
CNY10 million (US$1.2 million) were seized. Three commercial bank employees who
introduced customers to illegal operation were netted in the swoop; those
employees were using legitimate bank accounts to carry out the illegal
transactions, making it difficult for investigators to follow the money trail.
Two recent events in particular have spurred Chinese individuals to dump U.S.
dollars. One was China's first interest rate hike in a decade, which was
announced on Oct. 28 and raised the return on yuan deposits; many people view
it as part of a macroeconomic package which will include a yuan revaluation.
The other event was the U.S. presidential election; many Chinese think that
with George W. Bush re-elected, China will be able to adjust its currency
without fear of it becoming a political issue.
In an effort to curb speculation, Chinese officials have continued to insist
no yuan revaluation is imminent; for example Vice Finance Minister Lou Jiwei
was quoted as saying by state media Thursday that a large move in the yuan was
unlikely in the near term.
Other officials, however, have continued to refer to the need for eventual
currency reform and flexibility in the currency system. Last weekend, central
bankers, commercial bankers and government officials held a closed-door meeting
in Shanghai to exchange views on currency policy; no policy decision was made,
but the meeting was widely interpreted as one step in preparing for revaluation
down the road.
So for many ordinary Chinese like Wang, selling U.S. dollars will probably
continue to seem the safest course. Wang noted that as late as the early part
of October, comments by Chinese officials still suggested an interest rate hike
wasn't imminent, even though it was.
"Many currency speculators have told me that if expectations of yuan
appreciation continue building, there could very well be a move this year. In
any case, I think there will be some kind of move in the first half of next
year," she said.
-With George Chen, Dow Jones Newswires; 8621 6218-3268;
Kurz noch in deutsch:
-Privatleute in China verkaufen USD gegen Yuan
-Yuan könnte an Wert zulegen
-Regierung könnte Yuan-USD Bindung aufheben, was den Experten zu folge den Yuan um bis zu 20% an Wert (in USD) anheben könnte.
möglicherweise bereits zum Jahresende.
Na, das ist ja mal was, wenn sogar scon Merill bullish wird, könnte es sehr bald sein dass die "breitere" Öffentlichkeit immer "näher" zu den Edelmetallen herangeführt wird.
INTERVIEW: Gold Supply Under Pressure - Merrill Fund Mgr
SYDNEY (Dow Jones)-
-Merrill Lynch Investment Managers have a favorable outlook for gold, underpinned primarily by emerging pressures on supply, a leading member of the firm's London-based natural resources team said late Tuesday.
Amid "relatively static" demand, falling mine output over the coming years and the potential for a reduction in European central bank sales stand to prolong the rally in U.S. dollar gold prices, Merrill gold fund manager Evy Hambro explained during a visit to Sydney.
"We are definitely in a positive environment...and that's going to remain until the fundamentals deteriorate, and we don't see that changing," Hambro said on the sidelines of a presentation to financial advisers.
Spot gold reached a 16-year high of US$436.85 a troy ounce Tuesday. At 0700 GMT, it was quoted at US$433.88/oz.
Hambro's seven-member team is one of the world's largest managers of gold equity investments, overseeing about US$6.5 billion spread between several mining funds.
Strong currencies in many of the leading gold-producing countries are actually forcing production cuts, despite the high U.S. dollar gold price, Hambro explained.
"We've got a situation where the mined production of gold is going to be declining for the foreseeable future," he said.
According to London-based precious metals market consultant GFMS Ltd., global mine production in 2003 remained flat about 2,590 tons.
While there are pockets of new supply emerging in countries like Russia and China, Hambro said global output will inevitably suffer from a lack of exploration.
"One of the big changes in the mining sector as a whole has been a significant cut (in) exploration expenditure, which is obviously reducing the probability of finding new projects to exploit," he explained.
Thus, gold reserves are increasingly being mined at a faster rate than they are being replaced, Hambro said.
"For example, (Newmont Mining Corp.) has to find seven million ounces of gold a year just to stand still; in order to grow, they've got to (increase reserves) more than that," he said of the world's largest producer.
The same is true of other top producers, such as South Africa's AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (AU), Hambro said.
"You don't find seven million ounce gold mines every day," he said.
Prospect Of Falling Central Bank Sales "Very, Very Exciting"
A less certain, but nonetheless bullish, component of Hambro's views on gold supply is the uncertainty surrounding European central bank sales.
Early this year, 15 European central banks renewed their five-year-old gold sales accord, known as the Washington Agreement, for a further five years.
Under the terms of the original deal, which expired in September, the signatories agreed to limit aggregate sales to 400 tons a year, or a total of 2,000 tons over the life of the accord.
While the extension raised the annual cap to 500 tons,this is "still well within the amount the market can tolerate," Hambro said.
But the growing prospect that total sales will fall below the 2,500 ton five-year cap, possibly by a wide margin, represents significant upside potential for gold, he noted.
"The question mark surrounding this agreement is who is actually going to sell the gold, and this is what is posing the big opportunity in the market today," Hambro said.
Large sellers under the first deal, including the Swiss central bank and the Bank of England, are likely to all but stand aside this time, according to analysts.
"The original speculation focused on the Germans, the French and the Italians," Hambro said, referring to possible major sellers under the new agreement.
Initially, government officials from the aforementioned countries were widely believed to be in favor of liquidating large chunks of their bullion reserves to balance their budgets and retire debt.
But in recent months, disagreements between government officials and central bankers, surrounding the mechanics and legal aspects of deploying the proceeds from gold sales, have diminished the likelihood of large sales by France and Germany.
"And the Italians have come out... and said they're not going to sell their gold at all and have no plans to do so," Hambro said.
The market is thus currently trying to figure out who might actually sell bullion, and musing over the possibility that total sales might fall well short of the 2,500 ton limit, Hambro explained.
"If gold is not sold under this agreement, then the market will be very, very exciting for a number of years to come," he said. "The market could not tolerate an absence of supply to this degree without prices having to rise."
Hallo Schwabenpfeil.
da diese Seite nun recht lange offline war, könntest Du bitte so nett sein und die GAta Berichte von Montag und Dienstag bitte auch noch reinstellen, da anscheinend Mike Bolser, der die Berichte schreibt anscheinend vor einem kurzen heftigen Rücksetzer warnt.
Bin echt gespannt.
Grüssle,
Silversurfer
Hallo Freunde der Metalle,
der Gata bericht von Gestern liest sich ja wirklich toll.
Was mich sehr überrascht hat, war der Wertverlust des USD im Verglsich zum Columbianischen Peso, dass Hartholzverkaüfer Ihre Kunden anrufen müssen um den Preis zu erhöhen.
Insgesamt zeigt das sich auch beim Euro - wir hatten gestern ja kurz die 1,30- Marke geknackt.
Wenn sich alles so weiterentwickelt, und auch die Asiaten mit dem Dollar-Verkauf anfangen, dann wird das noch ein heisses Jahresende 
Ich hoffe dass beim Silber die COMEX-Lager bald unter 100 Mio Unzen fallen werden, und dann geht die Lucy richtig ab ;(.
Was auch sehr interessant ist bei diesem Gata-Bericht, die An-Verkauf-Marge ist bei Gold über 6 USD, was wirklich eine schöne entwicklung ist.
Ob Kollege/Kollegin SPICA recht hat dass ab dem 11.11. der Bär tanzt.
Oder ist das nur ein "Narren-Anfangszeit"-Scherz?
Ich dachte zuerst nur der Wahlausgang in USA wird ein Krimi, aber der Krimi ist jetzt immer noch voll am laufen, und wird wahrscheinlich die Spannungspunkte immer weiter aufbauen.
Grossen Respekt, Schwabenpfeil, Du trägst sehr viel für das Forum bei.
Danke für die Guten Berichte!!
Wenn Du aus dem Schwabenland kommst - Respekt! Es zeigt mal wieder dass die Schwaben halt doch sehr fleissige SCHAFFER sind.
Grüsse,
Silversurfer
(auch aus dem Schwabenland)
Gold+Silver
Nell Sloane's daily comments
Wednesday Nov 03
OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 3:45 AM:
London Gold Fix $422.20 -$2.90
LME COPPER STOCKS 76,400 metric tons -725 tons
COMEX Gold stocks 5.333 ml -1,157 oz
COMEX Silver stocks 103.7 ml -865,060 oz
OVERNIGHT ACTION: Initial Asian weakness rejected as a weak Dollar garnered attention.
GOLD: Since the gold and silver market washed out prices ahead of the election, the impact of the election should wane pretty quickly. However, some news sources are suggesting that the Democrats might challenge the outcome with calls for a recount and that could return the uncertainty. It is also supportive that energy prices are a little firmer overnight but in our opinion the gold market is potentially sitting at an important inflection point, as persistent equity market gains might signal a better forward look for the global economy and that in turn could raise physical gold demand enough to prompt price gains. The Chinese bought a moderate amount of soybeans yesterday and that might signal that China will continue to be a buyer of commodities, despite the contrary sentiment fostered by their recent rate hike. With the Gold Fields Board suggesting that shareholders reject the Harmony bid it would not seem like the gold stock arena will be providing a positive flow of dialogue for gold futures. In order to take gold higher off the quasi flight to quality tilt, the Dollar will have to fall back below 85.00 or December crude will have to come out of the weekly inventory reports with a rise above $51.13. Trend line support in February gold comes in at $420.7 and a return to the middle of the uptrend channel would project a rise to $427.8. From high to low, December gold fell $9 and that should have tempered the overly long small spec and fund long position.
SILVER: Trend line support in December silver comes in at $6.94 and a return to the middle of the old up trend channel up at $7.20 could now be seen. Like gold, the silver market needs to get away from the flight to quality correlation and get onto something with more potential, like growing physical demand or inflation sparked by a forwardly progressive global economy. From high to low the December silver contract fell by 41 cents and that should certainly temper the overly long small spec and fund long position.
METALS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 11/3/2004
SILVER (DEC): A crossover down in the daily stochastics is a bearish signal. Momentum studies trending lower at mid-range could accelerate a price break if support levels are broken. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The market is in a bearish position with the close below the 2nd swing support number. The next downside target is now at 671.9. The next area of resistance is around 718.8 and 738.9, while 1st support hits today at 685.3 and below there at 671.9.
GOLD (DEC): A crossover down in the daily stochastics is a bearish signal. Negative momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. More selling pressure is likely given yesterday's gap lower price action on the day session chart. The close below the 2nd swing support number puts the market on the defensive. The next downside target is 412.8. The next area of resistance is around 425.2 and 430.4, while 1st support hits today at 416.4 and below there at 412.8.
@ Schwabenpfeil
Na komm, Du wirst ja wohl noch ein kleines bisschen mehr zu bieten haben wie nur die GATA Berichte oder?
:)Danke für Deinen Einstieg und die Berichte.
Wie schon gesagt, wenn jeder ein bisschen auf seinen lieblingsseiten herumstöbert und was interassantes findet, dann werden wir sicher die nächsten 100 Seiten dieser Threads auch noch füllen können.
Haut rein,
Silversurfer
Leider musst Du immer zu Lemetropolecafe auf die Webseite gehen um dann den Bericht in der James Joyce Table zu öfffnen.
Ich denke ab morgen darfst Du das übernehmen.
Das ist ja ein perfektes Timing!!
Die Analyse zu Gold muss ja einfach bearisch aussehen, da Gold es noch nicht wirklich über dei 430 Marke geschafft hat.
Ich denke das sollte sich recht bald haben.
Mann bin ich auf den Wahlausgang gespannt.
Ich hoffe wirklich stark dass es Kerry schafft.
@alle
weiss irgend jemand ob die 911 Fahrenheit reportage von Michel Moore (was gestern auf Pro7 lief) irgend wann wiederholt wird.
Leider habe ich es komplett verpasst.
Alles Gute,
Silversurfer
Hier ein Bericht den ich jeden Tag gerne lese um über die nächsten stops bei den Edelmetallen informiert zu sein.
Grüssle,
Silversurfer
Tuesday Nov 02
OVERNIGHT CHANGE to 3:45 AM:
London Gold Fix $425.10 -$3.00
LME COPPER STOCKS 77,125 metric tons -800 tons
COMEX Gold stocks 5.334 ml Unchanged
COMEX Silver stocks 104.6 ml Unchanged
OVERNIGHT ACTION: Japanese buyers failed to discourage generally weak gold action.
GOLD: The gold market already appears to be in a liquidation mode ahead of the US election but that attitude could change quickly if it appears that the race is going to remain a dead heat. The weakness in energy prices is contributing to the slide in gold prices and that may project a slide down to $422.7 basis the December contract. Keep in mind, that the fund and small spec long is massive and that with each passing chart failure, the odds of a more significant washout increase. With the Dollar showing signs of testing the top of the recent consolidation, the gold is also seeing some initial pressure from the currency sector. However, in order for the Dollar to really put the pressure on gold, the December Dollar will have to climb above a critical pivot point of 85.62. While there would seem to be a high probability of a prolonged legal joust following the election today, we suspect that anxiety will be less significant than was seen in 2000, simply because the country has the experience of the 2000 election behind it. We think that longs should stay long but longs should consider securing some put protection just to dampen the negative impact of a temporary post election let down.
SILVER: Trend line support today in December silver comes in at $7.15 but slightly lower support might easily be tested down at $7.06. In the near term, silver will be mostly influenced by gold and with energy prices soft and the Dollar mostly higher, we can understand silver being under a slight bit of pressure during the session today. We think fresh longs need to wait for a correction down to $7.00 before getting long, especially over the coming 24 hour period.
METALS TECHNICAL OUTLOOK 11/2/2004
SILVER (DEC) 11/02/2004: The daily stochastics have crossed over up which is a bullish indication. Daily stochastics have risen into overbought territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The next upside objective is 745.8. The next area of resistance is around 740.0 and 745.8, while 1st support hits today at 726.1 and below there at 717.8.
GOLD (DEC) 11/02/2004: Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. It is a slightly negative indicator that the close was under the swing pivot. The next upside target is 433.2. The next area of resistance is around 430.4 and 433.2, while 1st support hits today at 426.0 and below there at 424.3.
http://www.financialsense.com/…ls/schmidt/2004/1031.html
Hier ein netter Link zu Silber.
Ich denke wir sollten da noch ein bisschen mehr Momentum sehen.
PS.:
Kann mir jemand erklären wie man biler in die Postings reinbekommt?
CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH
A picture perfect day for the PPT. The US stock market sails on going into the election. Oil was trashed to $50.13 (down $1.64), the dollar rose .36 to 85.34 and gold was taken down.
The DOW gained another 26 to 10,054, while the DOG rose 5 to 1980.
The euro lost .38 to 127.49.
The US economic news was nothing to write home about:
Prior Income report revised to 0.3% from 0.4%; prior Spending revised to (0.1%) from 0.0%.
* * * * *
10:00 Oct. ISM Prices Paid reported 78.5 vs. consensus 79
Prior reading was 76.
* * * * *
10:00 October ISM Manufacturing reported 56.8 vs. consensus 58.5
Prior reading was 58.5.
* * * * *
Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- A gauge of U.S. manufacturing fell last month to the lowest in more than a year, incomes lagged spending in September and home construction declined in the final economic reports before tomorrow's presidential election.
The Institute for Supply Management's factory index dropped for a third month, to 56.8 from 58.5 in September. Americans spent more than they earned in September, with personal income rising 0.2 percent, a third of the gain in spending, the Commerce Department said. Spending on construction projects was unchanged, restrained by a storm-related drop in homebuilding.
10:00 Sept. Construction Spending reported 0.0% vs. consensus 0.4%
Prior reading revised to 0.9% from 0.8%.
* * * * *
Gold buyers out there:
01.11 / 16:04 | 68 National Bank: gold exchange reserves keep on growing
Astana. November 1. KAZINFORM. Comparing to the state in late October the volume of gold exchange reserves of the country has increased by 44 percent up to USD 7.2 billion. This became possible due to substantial exceed of currency supply over demand. Chairman of the National Bank of Kazakhstan Anvar Saidenov informed of this today addressing the joint session of Parliament houses. This volume of gold exchange reserves reimburses about 5 months of goods and services import. According to the predictions of macroeconomic indexes for 2005 gold exchange reserves are expected to grow by 11-12 percent.
During 9 months of the current year the monetary base in Kazakhstan has increased by 27 percent (up to 400 billion KZT); monetary supply – by 25 percent (up to 1.312 billion KZT); cash volume – by 31 percent (up to 312 billion KZT). In general, by the end of the year monetary growth in the republic will amount to 25.8 percent. Analogous indexes of the previous year were 21 percent.
In 2005 the forecast growth of monetary supply by 23-24 will conform to the tempos of economic development of the country, said the banker. –END-
An update on leasing:
Good morning Bill:
"They" started leasing gold and silver heavily last Friday, gold more than silver. It is not the absolute values that are telling so much as the ratios between gold and silver. Usually, silver rates are three to five time that of gold from near terms to long terms. On Friday, gold lease rates rose to less than half of silver's, even though silver rates climbed too and have been climbing slowly for weeks. I don't know what happened to rates this morning, but I can guess they continued to rise. They will trash both metals before the American election, and do it with both leased metal and paper.
I expect the US dollar will show an miraculous recovery today and the DOW will explode. The only thing that might topple the above scenario is the simple fact that the smart money knows what is coming and might turn this into bear trap for the CABAL. It is after all the, leased gold that is finding its way east, so rising lease rates express the pain of the drain on Western central banks reserves.
Regards, Rhody.
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CP/W
On the PPT:
Dear Bill,
Eric Hommelberg's letter makes reference to me with regard to the Plunge Protection Team. I wrote about the Plunge Protection Team in BEURSBEDROG (The Stock Market Sting), Arbeiderspers, Amsterdam, 2003. At the time I did not know where the Plunge Protection Team got the money to manipulate the markets. Now I think I do--the pension funds of Pentagon and other federal contractors. This is explained in a paper I gave at a conference in Barcelona this past June. The paper can be found on my website at Brooklyn College, where I am the Chairman of the Economics Department:
http://depthome.brooklyn.cuny.…elonaStockmarketPaper.htm
All the best, Robert Bell
Nice GATA exposure:
Bill,
I posted the Mozhaiskov transcript to Mises.org BLOG: http://www.mises.org/blog/archives/002648.asp#more.
Robert Blumen
Mises.org, believe it or not, is the #1-most-trafficed economics web site in their world, even ahead of WSJ, the economist, fed.gov, etc. and it is the #1 most trafficked policy site.
Robert
China Lays Into 'Bush Doctrine' Ahead of U.S. Poll
BEIJING (Reuters) - On the eve of the U.S. election, China laid into what it called the "Bush doctrine," said the Iraq war has destroyed the global anti-terror coalition and blamed arrogance for the problems dogging the United States worldwide.
The searing article was as close to a position on the U.S. presidential election as China has come, but it made no mention of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, the Democratic Party's challenger to President Bush in Tuesday's presidential contest.
The United States was dreaming if it thought the 21st century was the American century, wrote Qian Qichen, one of the main architects of China's foreign policy, in a commentary in the English-language China Daily newspaper.
"The current U.S. predicament in Iraq serves as another example that when a country's superiority psychology inflates beyond its real capability, a lot of trouble can be caused," Qian wrote.
"But the troubles and disasters the United States has met do not stem from the threats by others, but from its own cocksureness and arrogance."
Qian is a former foreign minister credited with breaking China out of diplomatic isolation after the crackdown on the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests.
The invasion of Iraq "has made the United States even more unpopular in the international community than its war in Vietnam," he said.
"The Iraq war has also destroyed the hard-won global anti-terror coalition," Qian added, saying it had caused a rise in terrorist activity around the globe and widened a rift between the United States and Europe.
"END OF EMPIRE"
The U.S. strategy of pre-emptive strikes would bring insecurity and ultimately the demise of the "American empire," Qian said.
Analysts have said China has a slight preference for the incumbent in the U.S. election, realising that U.S. policy toward China has changed little from administration to administration.
But China, growing in economic and political influence on the world stage, has expressed its aversion to Bush's unilateralist tendencies and sided with France and Germany in opposition to the Iraq war.
"It is now time to give up the illusion that Europeans and Americans are living in the same world, as some Europeans would like to believe," Qian said.
The United States had not changed its Cold War mentality, Qian said.
"The 21st century is not the 'American century'. That does not mean that the United States does not want the dream. Rather it is incapable of realizing the goal," he said.
After the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States, the "Bush doctrine" created "axes of evil" and pre-emptive strategies.
"It linked counter-terrorism and the prevention of proliferation of so-called rogue states and failed states ... It all testifies that Washington's anti-terror campaign has already gone beyond the scope of self-defense."
-END-
Nick Laird was kind enough to send us these charts from Australia:
Bill
Here's a few charts for you that I believe are important at the moment.
The 8 year cycle has now been broken by Friday's close - this 3 up & 5 down cycle has been resident for quite some time.
Samex Mining ($.70, down 8 cents), my second largest holding, was clobbered for the second day in a row. Eric Hommelberg’s perspective:
Hi Bill,
The SAMEX sell off today is pathetic. The stock sank like a stone from 92 cents to 60 cents in just 5 trading days. Volume is hugh, so someone is desperately trying to get rid of the stock as quick as they can thereby taking losses exceeding 30%. Clever deal !
Why sell at this level ? Because most so called gold-advisors are calling in a top on Gold ? Gold won’t slash the $430 barrier ? Taking profits now ? The problem is that small juniors simply can’t absorb a large quantity of sell-orders. Therefore we are witnessing a crazy situation here whereby the entire junior sector is heading towards their lows of this year while the price of Gold is at a 16 year high ! Well, it seems to me that fear is doing the killing over here. Selling just attracts more selling and as said before the smaller juniors simply can’t absorb such a large quantity of sell-orders. It happened several times in the past and again I want to stress that these sell-offs have nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company but just fear only. Therefore a panic sell-off such as this one provides an excellent buying opportunity. Just see the graph below and see what happened after the latest panic sell-off in June this year.
As you can see, during the June panic sell-off the shares dropped all the way down to 46 cents and then blasted to 89 cents in just 5 trading sessions. So from a technical point of view it makes sense to buy right now. But there are other reasons as well. The main reason to invest in Junior mining companies is to profit from major discoveries. How and why Junior mining companies can benefit tremendously from discoveries is explained in detail in my piece "Declining Gold reserves benefit Juniors" which can be found at :
http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…_04/hommelberg091904.html
This piece shows that companies making discoveries are doing very well, no matter what the gold price does. Companies jumping +50% on good results are no exception. So if you are a SAMEX shareholder and you know they started a phase I drill program on their Los Zoros property in July this year and you know they can come out anytime now with the first drill results, why for good sake would you sell right now ? I can’t help but to think that most investors are simply not aware of this or don’t realize the true nature of the Los Zoros fields. Michael Bolser send out the following to his subscribers on Oct 18 : (published with permission)
Michael Bolser – Interventional Analysis, Newsletter Oct 18
Current investment recommendation
My current investment recommendation is to build a core bullion position, supplement that with small natural gas debt free firms and finally with small debt-free exploration gold mining firms. The two that I own and like are Canada Southern Petroleum, Ltd. [CSPLF] and SAMEX mining [SMXMF.OB]. Each has a large upside resource potential and one is trading at a very large discount to its net asset value (CSPLF). In addition, SAMEX is in an announced drill core program at their Los Zorros property in mining-friendly Chile. They have reported similar surface geology to the Candelaria copper mine ($12 Billion) 50 km to the North.
END.
Just repeat the latest sentence here:
They have reported similar surface geology to the Candelaria copper mine ($12 Billion) 50 km to the North.
For me as an investor, this is the primary reason to invest in companies such as SAMEX. If they are able to find a multi-billion gold/copper deposit, guess what its share price will do ? You can do the math yourself.
Of course some investors would argue to wait for the early drill results first and see if they confirm the reported surface geology, but then again as an investor you would be too late. As said before, companies showing good drill results may jump >50% overnight. So therefore you have to be positioned well in order to profit from a potential discovery.
Best, Eric
Panic sell-off provides great buying opportunity.Last panic sell-off in June was followed by a 93% increase in just 5 trading days.
SAMEX is three month underway in an announced drill core program at their Los Zoros property. The first drill results can come out anytime soon.
SAMEX reported similar surface geology to the Candelaria copper mine.
Investors can wait to dump their gold share positions. The XAU lost 1.47 to 101.95, while the HUI gave up 4.20 to 229.40.
HUI
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8
The key to gold is the physical market. As long as it holds, and it appears it will, The Gold Cartel is going to have their hands full. I will be very surprised if gold doesn’t bolt through $430 this week. Silver should be streaking for $8.
GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!
MIDAS
Appendix
Global: The Day after Tomorrow
Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.morganstanley.com/G…igests/latest-digest.html
Excerpt:
…There are no quick fixes for America. Yet political campaigns are designed to give voters just such an impression. The day after tomorrow, this charade should come to an end. And just in time, I might add. In my view, 2005 could well be a year when many of America’s imbalances reach their tipping point. A failure to act would be the greatest tragedy of all. Looking at America’s problems through the lens of subpar saving suggests that deficit reduction and a weaker dollar should be at the top of the list of potential remedies -- remedies that, by the way, will have critical implications for world financial markets. Certainly, more can be done. But I can’t think of a better place to start.
On a personal note, I have to add that I have found this election campaign deeply disturbing. The tone of the debate is what troubles me the most. It has fanned a polarization in America and around the world that is right out of some of the darkest pages of history. It didn’t have to be that way. Out of the devastating tragedy of September 11 came a remarkable spirit of bipartisan solidarity. America was united and the world came together -- not just in grief and sorrow but also in hope for collective renewal. I remember being stuck in Europe in the days immediately after the attack on America, unable to return home at a time when I wanted nothing more. I was warmly embraced by our long steadfast allies, with a compassion and sincerity that deeply touched me. Their hearts were open and caring. Their home was my home.
That spirit has been squandered. Americans are at odds with one another, with a deep and worrisome intensity. And the world sees us in a stark, adversarial light. The cynics say this is just politics -- that such divisiveness is the norm, especially during times of war. I beg to differ. Today, polarization is playing on the character of America -- in the end, any nation’s most precious asset. Sadly, that character is now at risk, both at home and abroad. As dawn breaks the day after tomorrow, that will be the first thing on my mind.
November 1 – Gold $426.90 down $1.30 – Silver $7.30 up 1 cent
Cartel Fails To Knock Gold Down Much
History, despite its wrenching pain, cannot be unlived, but if faced with courage, need not be lived again...Maya Angelou
GO GATA!!!!
Not much to bring to your attention today. Following its strong weekly and monthly close on Friday, gold came out of the box swinging, even though the dollar was higher. It took off for $430, trading at $430.20, and then The Gold Cartel said, "No Way Jose." That was all she wrote and all need be said. The good news is The Gold Cartel’s assault didn’t get them very far.
The gold open interest rose to another record and now stands at 322,614, up 2116 contracts.
Silver was a Steady Eddie. The bears have to be looking at themselves this afternoon.
The silver open interest gained 243 contracts to 117,328.
Chuck noted the following over the weekend:
I just picked up the Investors Daily for Monday and noticed that there remains a lot of put buying on the gold options. Very bullish. Throw that into the pot. Chuck.
Our London gold source remains very bullish and is looking for $450 to $460 gold by year end.
The best news of the day is how firm the gold physical market is - brought to your attention by John B:
The John Brimelow Report
India buying, also Turkey: specs less extended than thought.
Monday, November 01, 2004
Indian ex-duty premiums $7.84, PM $7.88, with world gold at $429.05 and $427.95. Ample for legal imports. This is basis Bombay: the other Indian reporting points are similar.
India is showing no signs of faltering in gold purchases despite the world price. Helped by the rupee’s firmness, this ultimately is a wealth effect: the world’s largest gold consumer is booming. For example, Maruti, the biggest Indian car manufacturer, reported a 27.6% increase in sales in October versus 2003. This constitutes a major obstacle for the Bears.
Turkish gold imports for October fell 33% to 14.85 tonnes. Although according to the Istanbul Gold Exchange the weighted average Turkish Lira price was 2.8% higher, the real problem was that gold moved in a limited range last month compared to September: there were no Bargain Basement sales days: gold’s low for the month was $14 above the September low.
Nevertheless, imports so far this year are within a tonne of the total for the entire year 2003, itself a stand-out record. Imports in late 2003 were slow; an increase of 10-15% this year seems quite likely (unless world gold rises).
Despite meeting this morning a world gold price allegedly boosted by month-end activity in NY on Friday, Asia was quite tolerant. Gold spent much of the morning trying to scale $430. TOCOM, indeed, seems to have been a modest buyer. Although volume fell 33% to equal only 16,474 Comex contracts, open interest edged up the equivalent of 519 Comex lots, and the Mitsubishi data implies the "general public" long rose by 3.1 tonnes, or 997 Comex lots. The active contract went out up 15 yen and world gold was $1.25 above the NY close at the end. (On Friday, NY traded 47,113 contracts; open interest rose 2,116 lots to a new record level of 323,654 contracts.)
UBS found the CFTC spec long increase modest:
"The COTR report for gold…showed an increase in the net long position to 20.83Moz, up nearly a million ounces…somewhat less than we were expecting because some brave traders have entered into new speculative short positions…The net long position increased by 0.91Moz to 20.83Moz, still shy of the all-time high of 22.65Moz from 6 April."
Another, particularly shrewd observer notes that the combined NY/Tokyo net long is only 570 tonnes compared to 715 at the April peak.
With the main physical buyer still active (unlike April) and the speculative futures crowd not in fact fully committed, the Bears are in the tightest corner they have experienced for many years.
JB
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/
Ist die webpage bei der man sich für ein 2 Wöchiges Testabo für die GATA-Berichte rebistrieren lassen kann.
Es ist völlig unverbindlich.
@ ALLE
Mann O MANN, ich bin so gespannt was nächste Woche so gehen wird.
Sollte eigentlich ein riesen Spass werden.
Hier noch ein Feiner Link zu Analüsen von Gold, Silber, S&P500 ....
http://www.contrarianthinker.com/no%20particular.htm
Das mit Silber sieht TOP aus.
Ich hoffe doch dass die Lucie bald ab gehen wird (Richtung NORDEN). 
@ ALLE
Ich denke das ist hier ein super tolles Forum.
Wenn alle ein bisschen Informationen über unsere Lieblingsthemen herbeischaffen, so können wir das Forum auch ohne die Leute die gegangen sind am leben halten.
Hat in die Tasten und lasst was von euch lesen :], SIlversurfer
