so heißt ein Artikel von Eric Hommelberg, der absolut lesenswert ist:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…_05/hommelberg052905.html
Ein Auszug:
So is this a time to buy junior stocks ?
That's a very difficult question, but I would like to make a few remarks on that :
First of all I think you shouldn't buy juniors just for short-term speculation, that's a dangerous game. Just let your company do their exploration, that's imo the reason why you should have bought them in the first place. If their exploration efforts are successful , you'll be rewarded. Needless to say this requires patience from the investors side.
Again be aware that only a very few juniors will ever be successful at all. (see discovery-chart). Only one out of every 1000 projects will make it to a mine. That's why it's so important to track juniors with high qualified geologists with proven track records and to diversify into several juniors. Just listen again what Ian Cockerill of Goldfields said :
We invest in 10 juniors in the hope that one or two of them come up trumps, and the value you get off the table there will pay for the other eight that do not. But you are spreading your exploration dollars, It increases your chance of success.END.
3.Juniors & volatility. How to approach ?
To junior investors I would say :
Get used to the high volatility surrounding the junior sector. Just hold your shares and let them do their Exploration. That's why you should have bought them in the first place, not for short term speculation. Give them the time needed to complete their exploration programs. Yes, your shares will be subject to sudden panic sell offs every now and then, that's all in the game but they'll recover just as they recovered from previous panic sell offs. Why ? Because we're in a bull market in gold. The big move in junior mining stocks is still ahead of us.
Highlights :
Due to lack of Exploration during the 1997 - 2002 period (Exploration budgets were cut by 67%) major Gold producers are facing declining Gold reserves.
The Industry is not replacing the reserves it is mining every year
High grade Mines are running out of ore.
If Gold were $1000 / oz , it still takes four to seven years to open a mine.
The industry isn't going to be able to respond immediately to higher gold prices .
Reserves will be depleted in 10 years at current annual production rates
Mine Supply already down 5% in 2004.
The industry needs some major new finds desperately. According to Alex Davidson (VP Exploration Barrick Gold) such discoveries are rare.
Industry consultant R. Bullis fears that the very large Gold producers won't survive at current production rates over the next five … ten years
75% of all discoveries are made by Juniors
Majors are forced to acquire juniors because of the need for more reserves
Newmont, Barrick, AngloGold and Goldfileds already showed some interest in Juniors.
Juniors making discoveries are phenomenally profitable.
Tschonko
