Beiträge von Schwabenpfeil

    Iron-ore price rise to cost Germany 1 bln euro


    BERLIN, March 8 (Reuters) - This year's 71.5 percent rise in iron-ore prices would cost Germany's steel industry one billion euros and force a rise in steel prices, the head of German steel industry association WVS said on Tuesday.


    Brazilian mine CVRD <600019.SS> in recent weeks succeeded in extracting a 71.5 percent price rise for iron-ore shipments in 2005 in Japan, Taiwan, Australia, and parts of Europe, Dieter Ameling said.


    "As steel companies in Germany are also set to be forced to make settlements at a similar level, they face extra costs of over 1 billion euros ($1.33 billion)," he told a conference on commodities organised by German industry association BDI.


    "This would have an impact on the entire steel market. Steel companies would have to pass the extra burden onto the market."


    The small number of companies in the global ire ore trade was partly to blame for the high ore price rise, he said. It came at a time when Germany's steel industry also faced rising scrap metal prices.


    -END-

    US gasoline price to hit record $2.15 a gallon-EIA


    WASHINGTON, March 8 (Reuters) - U.S. gasoline prices will hit a new record high this spring, reaching a national monthly average of $2.15 a gallon, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday.


    During the busy 2005 driving season, which runs from April through September, gasoline will average $2.10 a gallon, up 20 cents from the same period last year, the EIA said in its monthly energy forecast.


    The current average pump price for regular unleaded gasoline jumped 7.1 cents over the last week to $2 a gallon, up 26 cents from a year ago, according to an EIA survey of service stations.


    The record high U.S. gasoline price was $2.06 a gallon set last May. However, when adjusted for inflation in today's dollars, the highest price for gasoline was $3.08 a gallon in March 1981, according to the EIA.


    -END-

    More from Dan:


    Hey Bill:
    More anecdotal proof of the "accuracy" of the CPI... The first story is a domestic one. The second is international with domestic implications. As you know, I have been pounding the table for what seems like an eternity about rising steel prices as it is one of the most important industrial commodities since so many goods or products are steel based. Rising steel prices cannot be long ignored. The percentage rise in iron-ore prices is simply phenomenal.


    Never fear however - Sir Alan says inflation is "well-anchored" and Bernanke treats us to such "thoughtful analysis" as "inflation remains well contained"....
    Dan

    From Dan:


    Bill and Jesse,
    I just finished watching the local news down here to catch the weather and they had a story on about the rising cost of energy and its effects on consumers.


    It was very succinct and to the point and really captured the gist of what is going on out there in the real world in which real people live.


    They began by showing a family of five that had arrived at the airport and talking about how the recent $20-$30 additional fuel surcharge being assessed by airlines on all tickets was making flying more difficult for consumers. In the case of this particular family, the increase due to fuel surcharges was between $100-$150 extra.


    They then went on to interview a cab driver at the same airport asking him what an expected $.25/gallon increase in gasoline this summer would do to his business. His answer was that a lot of cab drivers were finding it increasingly difficult to make a profit and some of the smaller ones would go under if the cost of fuel kept rising. He did not say anything about raising the per mile cost to customers but I would expect that to be highly likely. Of course we know that never happens in the real world because service providers do not pass on rising costs to end users - just refer to the CPI if you have any doubt.


    What really burned me as I sat there watching it with my wife was recalling the words of liar in chief at the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, and his recent asinine remark that inflation remained "well anchored". Throw Buffoon Ben Bernanke's parrot like reiteration that "inflation is not a threat" and it just sickened me all the more.


    I grabbed one of the kid's little play basketballs which is orange in color and held it up and told everyone in my house that the ball was blue and they were not to believe their own eyes no matter what those told them. That is exactly what is taking place today. The Fed trots out its shills who proceed to tell us how successful they have been in containing inflation and how they have managed to achieve monetary stability all the while every other sensory input informs us of the exact opposite. We are of course expected to reject what our own eyes tell us and believe what these self-anointed new priestly class assert as if it were divine revelation itself.
    Welcome to the Fed-created "The Matrix".
    Dan

    The King Report
    M. Ramsey King Securities, Inc.
    Tuesday Mar. 8, 2005 – Issue 3111 "Independent View of the News"


    The WSJ notes in "Fed Officials Worried Throughout 1999 About Stock Market" that Easy Al did indeed know he had fomented a bubble and he and his droogs were deeply concerned about the ramifications. The transcripts of Fed meetings have established that Easy Al and other Fed officials are liars. They lied about not knowing that stocks were in a bubble and they lied about not knowing how to recognize a bubble. And they lied when they said one can’t recognize a bubble until after it bursts.


    The WSJ: "Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and his colleagues continued to regard the soaring stock prices of the late 1990s as a "bubble" long after he publicly stated it was beyond his ken to make a prognosis of investor giddiness, according to new documents released by the U.S. central bank. Amid an international fright in 1999 about the economic havoc that might be wreaked by the so-called Y2K computer bug, many Fed policymakers said they thought the likelihood of big disruptions was small, transcripts of their meetings that year show. But they worried regularly about how to manage the stock "bubble" and delayed interest-rate increases partly because they feared triggering a market crash. . . . In public, Mr. Greenspan changed his approach. In August 1999, Mr. Greenspan delivered a speech in Jackson Hole, Wyo., in which he argued that monetary policymakers shouldn't directly try to deflate stock bubbles but instead focus on ameliorating their economic effects. That's because they were incapable of identifying bubbles until after they had popped: "Collapsing confidence is generally described as a bursting bubble, an event incontrovertibly evident only in retrospect," he said. Within the FOMC, however, Mr. Greenspan and many of his colleagues continued to describe the activities of stock investors as characteristic of a bubble. In December 1999, he agreed with a staff forecast that predicted stock prices would stabilize, adding "it is only a question of how much of a bubble there is in this process." At that meeting, he also said: ‘I see overheating other than in the stock market.’…Greenspan and Ms. Rivlin also advised caution in raising interest rates over the course of the year because of the difficulty of predicting U.S. economic performance. "The bottom line is that we really do not know how this system works," Mr. Greenspan said at a November meeting. ‘It's clearly new. The old models just are not working.’" Please note the concern and influence of Slick acolyte, Alice Rivlin. http://online.wsj.com/public/us..


    -END-

    Input from Germany on the dollar:


    BERLIN, March 8 (Reuters) - Germany's BGA exporters' association on Tuesday predicted the euro would rise to $1.35 in the second half of this year and gradually head up toward $1.40.
    At a presentation of the group's latest forecasts for German foreign trade in Berlin, BGA President Anton Boerner said he did not expected a collapse in the U.S. dollar but recommended hedging at the current level. –END-


    Lies, lies and more lies.


    You know by now I am in an agitated, disgusted mood. However, it is not only me these days. For those who live on our planet and see what is really transpiring in the US financial markets, financial press and government spin programs regarding one fabrication after another, versus telling the American public the truth, it is nauseating to watch the Orwellians do their thing day after day.


    (On a side note, once you know what we know, it becomes extremely difficult to view what is going on in any other manner. The reason is we keep coming across bits of EVIDENCE upon EVIDENCE which ALWAYS confirms what we uncovered in the first place, further supporting our original discovery. Thus, once you arrive on our planet, it is almost impossible to move back to the other one and view the world the way those do on the Wall Street/Washington mainstream spin planet.)


    Anyway, Bill King and Houston’s Dan Norcini have a few salient points to make about the lies, the ones we discovered upon the move to our planet. The word lies tends to offend many as it leaves little wiggle room for error in the interpretation of a comment. The harshness of the term goes all the way back to when we were kids. What could be worse as a youth than to be called a liar? Actually, I wish I could thing of a stronger term to describe the goings-on as I really think describes them.

    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH


    The liquidity in the US financial system and hype by Wall Street has the US stock market holding its own. With all that went on today, the DOW only lost 24 to 10,913, while the DOG gave up 13 to 2073. Denial and spin continues to reign.


    US economic news:


    07:46 UBS chain store sales (0.4%) in 3/5 week vs. +1.5% in prior week
    * * * * *


    08:55 Redbook chain store sales index (1.0%) month-to-date in March vs February The is the first report for March, with sales through the 3/5 week.
    * * * * *


    NEW YORK, March 8 (Reuters) - U.S. consumers' confidence fell to a nine-month low in March, reflecting worries about the prospects for the economy, according to a survey released on Tuesday.


    Investor's Business Daily and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence said their economic optimism index slipped 1.8 points to 53.0 from February's 54.8. A reading above 50 indicates optimism.


    The six-month economic outlook, a measure of how consumers feel about the economy's prospects in the next six months, declined by 2.6 points to 48.6, a 24-month low.


    "What is most worrisome is that the economic outlook component sank below 50 this month. The last time it did that was back in March of 2003, on the eve of the Iraq war," Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, IBD's polling partner said in a statement.


    The personal financial outlook measure dipped 0.1 point to 61.8, while an index measuring confidence in federal government policies dropped 2.6 points to 48.6.


    The overall gauge is based on over 900 interviews in the first week of March.


    -END-

    The John Brimelow Report


    Fascinating COMEX est. volume
    Tuesday, March 08, 2005


    (Sorry for brevity & lateness- weather problems.)


    Bombay, India’s financial capital, was closed for a local holiday today.


    Indian ex-duty premiums from the other importing cities continued ample for legal imports, with world gold at $434.80 and $435.


    TOCOM continued to show no enthusiasm. On volume equal to 13,562 Comex lots (-15%), open interest slipped the equivalent of 450 Comex. Mitsubishi’s data suggests the “Public” cut their long by 3.5 tonnes (1,125 Comex lots). The active contract, however, was up 4 yen because world gold was $1.20 above the NY close at the end. Somewhere in the Far East there is a buyer. (NY yesterday traded 32,403 lots; open interest fell 2,346 contracts.)


    The ECB’s captive Central Banks sold E68 Mm of gold last week, which implies about 6.5 tonnes. Somewhat below the recent norm (the previous week seemed to be 9.4 tonnes). Taken at face value, this acquits the ECB group of the heavy selling seen last week.


    Comment on Monday’s rather tedious trading is superfluous. More interesting is to contemplate the Comex estimated volume for today: 70,000 lots (e.g. well over double Monday’s 32,403) with 24,000 trading in the last half hour (during which gold soared an enormous $1.60!). Clearly, the seller is still with us.


    JB

    Back to gold. One nice change of the usual pattern was gold managed to make new highs and nicely so on the close … with The Gold Cartel fighting the controlled rise at each interval. However, when viewing the commodity, dollar and bond action, gold should have risen sharply, at least $12, or more. Thus, my usual disgust.


    Silver was a joke. The bums knew they were going to have trouble with gold so the price managers sat on silver all session long. It closed around 4 cents LOWER than where it first traded 10 minutes after the opening. Silver LEAPED out of the gate, rising 17 cents right off the bat and then hit a brick wall, courtesy of The Gold Cartel.


    May silver
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/35


    Heard from our STALKER source this morning. The small Stalkers (most likely Chinese buying groups) have all been buying physical gold over the past 10 days. One of them bought silver for the first time. This same source said the talk in London over silver moving up sharply from present levels is spreading with a number of well-heeled clients purchasing, or looking to purchase.


    Our STALKER source says the London dealer crowd is looking for gold to rise to the $450 to $460 level in the months to come, with silver taking out $9, and the dollar breaking below 80.


    The gold open interest fell 2376 contracts to 290,549, while the silver open interest dropped 307 contracts 99,377.


    The March euro finished the day at 133.47, up 1.43.

    Yet, the dollar has completed a huge rally top formation and broke down today itself, closing at 81.97 below significant support at 82, down .81 and lower against all major currencies. The odds of the dollar taking out 80 are very high. Add the weakening dollar to the soaring commodity prices and we should have gold $500 bid right now, minimum.


    March dollar
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/35


    Which takes us to the bond market, which was collapsing recently until the bond vigilantes uncovered how weak the US economy actually is after deciphering the real US jobs situation. The rah-rah over a strong jobs number was nothing more than Wall Street spin. We know better. The real story (see Kirby at The Little Bear Table) was 27,000 jobs were lost in February, so the bond market took off.


    However, reality regarding soaring US inflation has taken hold again with these same vigilantes. How could it not? I assume they can read charts. With commodity prices in the US going bananas, the May 30-year fell nearly a point to 112 13/32.


    March bonds
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/35

    Now, look at the CRB itself – nothing less than a moon-shot. Yet, gold is never allowed to violate the $6 Rule with The Gold Cartel giving gold longs a crumb here and a crumb there. Gold is NEVER allowed to trade like other commodity markets.


    April CRB
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/RB/45


    By day’s end the spot CRB closed at 312.64, up another 3.24. It has risen in parabolic fashion over the last month to 24-year highs:


    Commodity Prices Rise to 24-Year High on Rallies in Copper, Oil


    March 8 (Bloomberg) -- Commodity prices surged to a 24-year high, led by gains in copper and crude oil, on concern that global economic growth is eroding inventories of raw materials faster than supplies can be replenished. (see full story in Appendix)


    -END-


    The commodity market action and coming inflation, as a result of soaring commodity prices, should have gold going berserk all by itself. Any downside move in the dollar should only be added fuel to the fire. If gold were not managed by the low-lifes in the cabal, it WOULD BE trading in that manner.

    May copper
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CP/55


    March 8 (Bloomberg) -- Copper prices rose to a 16-year high in New York and touched a record in London on expectations that production of refined metal from the world's smelters will lag demand through June.


    Smelters aren't boosting output because some are shut for maintenance, Merrill Lynch & Co. said today in a report. Inventory monitored by the London Metal Exchange has plunged 80 percent in the past year. World supply is equal to three weeks of demand, down from more than six weeks in early 2003, said Jon Bergtheil, an analyst at J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd. in London.


    ``Anything below four weeks is still a danger zone,'' Bergtheil said. ``There is no doubt that copper is extremely tight in the first half of the year.'' –END-


    March coffee
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CF/35


    March lumber
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/LU/35


    April crude oil ($54.59, up 70 cents per barrel)
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CO/45


    LONDON BRENT CRUDE RISES SHARPLY TO NEW RECORD ABOVE $53.00 ON STRONG DISTILLATES, WEAK DOLLAR - Reuters


    May soybeans
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SB/55


    May cocoa
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CC/55

    Go Gold Rush 21!


    The gold, silver volcano is heating up.


    The funds were massive early buyers. The Gold Cartel was a massive early seller. Real surprise, right? The bullion dealers in the cabal received instructions from headquarters to defend the $436/$437+ level. The fact that the CRB had risen another 2 points early on was irrelevant. As pointed out by MIDAS and other GATA supporters so often, this bunch of crooks couldn't care less about getting a higher price for their sales. Their goal is to cap the price in an orchestrated fashion in order to keep gold excitement to a minimum and to deceive the investing public re the true inflation picture in the United States. I have said this before, and say it again … we have a building scandal which will dwarf Watergate when all is said and done. The scandal will surface when the US stock and real estate markets tank and the average Joe and Jane is screaming as to how it could have happened … that they lost so much of their hard earned money and net worth. The GATA ARMY will be there to explain how the Orwellians operated with their Father Knows Best, misguided, Economic Fascism ways.


    Gold was held in check in the early going as The Gold Cartel and allies held their fort right above $437 when Morgan Stanley, an early seller along with the bums, turned sudden buyer. This pushed gold through huge resistance and touched off buy stops.


    It’s more than infuriating to watch gold diddle around like it is, capped by the crooks, when you see what other commodities are doing. The silence of the mainstream gold world over the gold price manipulation is almost incomprehensible. Take a look at these charts re what is going on in the real world where markets trade freely:

    March 8 – Gold $440 up $5.60 – Silver $7.49 up 14 cents


    Gold (Silver) Volcano Starting To Blow / $6 Rule Again / Baum: The Bloomberg Blowhard


    "A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious, but it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formable, for he is known and carries his banner openly, but the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not as a traitor, he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and garments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to be feared."
    Marcus Tullius Cicero, 42BC


    GO GATA!

    Appendix


    To John Wallis in Australia:


    Your emails from me keep bouncing back.
    Been working on your overpayment problem. Still trying to credit your account for 3 memberships.
    Because over one year old, jumping through hoops to get it done.
    Might have to send a check by Fed Ex.
    Will know soon.
    Best regards,
    Bill


    -END-


    I spoke today with Paul Mladjenovic, a veteran GATA supporter, about his upcoming conference in Fort Lee, New Jersey on March 19:


    Financial Vortex


    Growing & Protecting your Wealth


    During the Coming Unavoidable Financial Storms


    He has arranged a special deal for Café members and GATA supporters. Should you be in the area and like to attend, please contact me by email and I will give you the details. Among other things, you will learn:


    • How to retire safely without depending on Social Security


    • What investments & strategies are dangerous right now.. avoid them like the plague.


    • The hottest areas to invest you money with the potential to earn over 1000%


    • What resources can provide an "early warning" before the crowd finds out


    • What investment sectors have the ability to help you turn $5,000 into six figures (or more)!


    • How will easily learn about politics & economics and how they will affect your wealth


    • A simple checklist to make sure that your financial success is more secure


    • The five things you MUST do before you invest a single dollar


    • How to get off the grid… pay no more utility bills! and much more…


    For more information, call 201-714-4953 or email us at Paul@Mladjenovic.com

    The gold shares are back to their nauseating late sell-off too. After performing well on Friday, they couldn’t handle prosperity and cabal-influenced selling. The XAU gave up .85 to 98.95.


    On a bigger picture outlook the HUI, down .88 to 215.66, is forming a monstrous reverse head and shoulder pattern which is powerful enough to send the gold shares sharply higher once 220 resistance is overcome.


    HUI
    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8


    The frustration of watching so many financial markets go up and then to witness gold forbidden to do so by a bunch of Orwellian crooks is hard to take at times. It is why the gold shares are having so much trouble. Specs of all kinds are running to those markets on the move due to the massive liquidity provided by the Fed. It is intensely aggravating:


    *To watch The Working Group on Financial Markets and The Gold Cartel willfully deceive the investing public, a deception which will end badly and cause many Americans to lose their net worth when this scam falls apart.


    *To have the gold industry ignore this fraud, the most important aspect of what they all do. Nothing affects them more than the artificial suppression of the gold price by many hundreds of dollars. There was a Nesbitt Burns conference in Florida last week and there is the Diggers conference in Toronto this week. I’ll bet the suppression of the gold price was not discussed at either. And, if it was, they probably had some dimwit knocking GATA.


    How do these people explain the Russian central bank commentary, the Sprott Asset Management report, and now the GCC report out of Dubai, which all come up to the same conclusion: GATA is correct?


    That said, the bad guys really are in deep trouble. Commodity prices continue on a tear are likely to rocket this summer. The dollar is a "dead man walking." Meanwhile, the US refuses to deal with its fiscal problems which will eventually lead to a loss of confidence in the ability of our politicians to deal with those problems until there is a crisis.


    The longer The Gold Cartel suppresses the gold price and the powerful forces present in the world economies which want to propel the gold price higher, the more violent will be the upside explosion. We have a volcanic pressure cooker in play here with an inevitable conclusion coming.


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


    MIDAS

    Speaking of miners, while the Benedict Arnold of South Africa, Trevor Manuel, kowtows to The Gold Cartel’s Gordon Brown to push for IMF gold sales, which will contribute to more unemployment in the mining sector in his country, his miner countrymen, the ones lucky enough to work, often suffer this fate:


    3 presumed dead at Harmony
    07/03/2005 14:57 - (SA)


    Johannesburg - World number six gold miner Harmony Gold on Monday announced that three miners were presumed dead at its Harmony two shaft in the Free State following a seismic event 2 300 metres underground.


    "Four miners were trapped in the after effects of the event. One was rescued and sustained injuries to his right ankle. The other three have been presumed dead and Harmony is in the process of recovering the bodies," Harmony added.


    Harmony will undertake a full and complete investigation into what caused the seismic event and have stopped the operation until safety can be assured for its employees, the company said. –END-


    Manuel could care less about the poor and miners in his country. If he did, he would be calling for the cessation of all central bank gold sales, so the price would go up, so the economy and employment in South Africa would improve, so the gold companies could spend more money on safety measures.

    Labor woes burn Canada miners as prices heat up


    By Nicole Mordant
    TORONTO, March 7 (Reuters) - Up to half of Canada's aging mining-industry work force could retire in the next few years, a minerals conference heard on Monday, alarming news for companies already facing a growing skills shortage.


    A recent surge in metals prices has sparked a rush into exploration, expansion, and the launch of new projects, creating demand for geologists, mining engineers, geoscientists, fitters, electricians and truck drivers, among other skills.


    But labor supply is short, the result of a 20-year recession in the mining industry until 2001 and negative public perception about the industry, which have led to a reluctance to consider it as a career choice.


    Last week, it was reported that Bronzewing, one of Australia's largest gold mines, would not reopen because of an acute labor shortage. Several smaller, earlier-stage projects in other parts of the world have been delayed because of work overload and a lack of skilled staff at assay laboratories.


    "We are seeing a critical shortage of skilled trades in our industry," said Paul Hebert of Canada's Mining Industry Training and Adjustment Council, a body that is conducting a study into the make-up and needs of Canada's minerals sector labor force.


    According to early results from the survey, the average age of Canadian mining industry employees is 50. There is evidence that fewer young people are starting careers in mining, and mining-specific university courses are getting rolled into other disciplines.


    A major obstacle to recruitment is the cyclical nature of mining. In times of strong prices workers are needed but as soon as prices turn, companies tend to lay off staff.


    "We are saying let's not drive out our brightest and youngest as the cycle turns down," said Patricia Dillon, corporate relations manager at Teck Cominco Ltd., who is working with Hebert on the Canadian study. Hebert and Dillon were addressing delegates at the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada conference in Toronto.


    Another problem is the public's perception of mining. In 1994, a U.S. opinion survey done by Roper Research ranked mining as the worst perceived industry out of 24. It came in behind tobacco as the public equated it with pollution, avarice and exploitation.


    John Meech, a professor in the University of British Columbia's mining engineering department, said schools have a role to play to change these perceptions. UBC has adapted its program to focus on environmental issues, sustainable mining, safety and the use of technology.


    He said that the industry is its own worst enemy. "They always complain when there are shortages... but they treat human relations in their companies the same as they treat environmental issues. They only plan for the next six months," he said referring to the cycle of layoffs and hiring.


    -END-

    Houston’s Dan Norcini follows up with another one on mining shortages, making it two articles in one day:


    Hi Bill:
    Here's a fascinating Reuters story on the mining industry and its labor woes. This is something I had not considered before and has some interesting implications. As far as I am concerned, it is just more fuel for the fire - if demand for gold continues to increase as it has, the supply deficit is going to only get worse and this will put a further drain on Western Central Banks' gold resources to fill the gap. After all, someone has to dig the stuff out of the ground. If mining companies cannot attract enough skilled people to the industry to take care of the attrition rate, they are going to eventually either have to offer high wages as an inducement or shut down production at all but their most profitable mines. Either way, the chronic supply deficit will only worsen.
    Best,
    Dan