Beiträge von Schwabenpfeil

The John Brimelow Report

Astonishing Indian story; Sensible Gartman!

Wednesday, February 09, 2005

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.38, PM $7.12, with world gold at $412.50 and $413.05. Ample for legal imports. This is basis Bombay. Other Indian import points continue to report premiums which would normally be associated with the Bombay premiums being $1 or so higher.

Reuters today carries an extraordinary Indian demand story.

"BOMBAY, Feb 9 (Reuters) - A sharp drop in gold prices have boosted demand in India, the world's largest market, and have caused a supply crunch, traders said on Wednesday….The delivery time has risen to more than a week, compared with the normal two days.

"Banks are not ready to take new orders. Deliveries of some bookings done a week ago are still pending," said Prithvi Raj Kothari, a dealer in Bombay, India's financial capital.

One foreign bank, which has been selling 7 to 8 tonnes of gold a week against a normal 2 to 3 tonnes, is finding it difficult to cope with the demand, a dealer at the bank said.

"I think the problem is also because each bank has its own internal limits on gold business," the dealer said, adding the delay had caused some scarcity in the market."

-END-

I met with minister Mlambo-Ngcuka four years ago almost to the day (see Appendix), which is a good segue into the feature of this MIDAS.

The INDABA gold conference is winding up in Cape Town, South Africa. Four years ago with gold at $255 GATA made a splash at the conference when we organized an ad to take issue with the big hedgers and The Gold Cartel thanks to "The South Africans For a Free Gold Market" and the "Mr. Gold" of South Africa, Peter George.

The most significant contributor to that $50,000 Business Day full page ad, organized over a lunch, was C.R.G. Hellinger, the chairman of International Hotels Development Corporation Limited. His estate/vineyard operation in Franschhoeck, SA outside of Cape Town is one of the most breathtakingly beautiful places I have ever had the privilege of visiting. Our Peter George group had lunch at the restaurant depicted in Mr. Hellinger’s website:

(Check out the "the farm")
http://www.chamonix.co.za/reststart.htm

Early last Saturday morning I called up Chris in Franschhoeck to invite him to be our guest at our GOLDRUSH 21 conference in the Yukon as he is the largest INDIVIDUAL single contributor to GATA over our six years of existence. He was delighted to hear from GATA. We would like Chris to represent all you GATA investors who have contributed to our efforts to free up the gold market.

We are shifting into high gear as far as our conference is concerned and GATA and MIDAS request that everyone of you make an effort to help and make it the success we expect it to be. Therefore, I hope every Café member will read the Appendix to understand the effort we have made in the past on behalf of gold investors to give you some idea of what that effort can lead to in the future.

S. Africa Mines Minister
Opposes IMF Gold Sales

By Gordon Bell
Reuters
Wednesday, February 9, 2005

http://www.reuters.co.za/local…Key=en_ZA&storyID=7577802

CAPE TOWN -- South African Mineral and Energy Affairs Minister
Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka said on Wednesday she opposed the idea of selling International Monetary Fund gold, one of several proposals to use its gold reserves for debt relief.

Mlambo-Ngcuka told Reuters at an African mining conference in Cape Town that other minerals ministers at the event were concerned by media reports on the proposals, and they would ask the IMF for clarification.

"Obviously if what we see in the newspapers is a fact, we have reasons to be concerned," she said. South Africa is the world's biggest producer of gold, which is also an important export for other countries on the continent.

Asked for her view on South African Finance Minister Trevor Manuel's cautious backing of the gold sale proposals, along with suggestions to revalue the IMF's reserves, Mlambo-Ngcuka replied: "I don't know about that. I am not in favour of that."..

-END-

So why did the price of gold drop $45 in two months when there is a natural supply/demand deficit of 1500+ tonnes. Answer: GOLD CARTEL.

Thus, the key factor in the gold market is whether these bums can come up with enough available central bank gold to continue this surreptitious scam. GATA believes their options are running out as less than half of the central bank’s reserves are still in the vaults. Many in our camp surmise this is the reason England’s Brown is shooting his mouth off. The cabal forces are desperate to get their hands on physical as this year progresses. It is also very likely they know there is no hope of IMF gold sales, however they intend to psychologically traumatize the market and bury the price so the cabal shorts can cover their shorts at decent prices. If so, it has been a successful ploy.

Finally some "officialdom" opposition to the sales, however, it is both feeble and tepid:

We know from John Brimelow’s superb work, and now from almost every report out there, that demand for gold is surging all over the world. You have the GLD which was supposed to have been such a big deal in enhancing gold demand from new sources such as pension funds. THEN, you have the hedgers continuing to close out their positions, which added to demand last quarter. "So-called de-hedging reached a record 14.3 million ounces last year, London-based researcher GFMS Ltd. said in a report today. Repurchases will slow this year because producers have 10 million ounces for deliveries, GFMS said." – Bloomberg. In the fourth quarter alone, the hedgers reduced their positions by 3.6 million ounces (113 tonnes).

Well if demand is surfacing everywhere we turn, then soaring mine or scrap supply must be keeping a lid on the market. WRONG! Mine supply is steadily deteriorating. For example:

"South Africa's mining production increased 5,9% in 2004 compared to the previous year, but gold output plunged 8.4% in the same period, official data showed yesterday."
Mining Weekly

However, the euro held technical support and it began a sharp rally. As I write this, the euro is UP .40, yet gold hit the DO NOT PASS GO sign at the unchanged mark. The cabal will not allow it to go up on the day so that it might bring in reversal buyers. It is rather hideous. Often when gold is down I am told that the traders are selling it off because of the euro selling off. Well, what about right now? SILENCE is all I get when I ask. The effort by The Gold Cartel to make gold a non issue has been relentless for two months now with no relief in sight.

The locals covered on the close and gold managed to eke out a pathetic gain. Silver was steady for most of the session, however, was unable to manage any oomph.

The gold open interest rose 3572 contracts, while the silver open interest fell 1600 contracts to 95,344. The COT report released on Friday should show the specs short gold. The ploy of the cabal has worked brilliantly, in violation of US anti-trust laws, but executed to perfection by the bad guys.

For more than half a decade I have focused on The Gold Cartel as being, by far, the most important factor in the gold market. This becomes more apparent as each year goes by. You would think by the price drop over the last two months that the gold fundamentals were terrible. Yet, that notion could not be further from the truth.

February 9 – Gold $412.50 up 40 cents – Silver $6.56 up 3 cents

Support GOLDRUSH 21!

History has demonstrated that the most notable winners usually encountered heartbreaking obstacles before they triumphed. They won because they refused to become discouraged by their defeats...B.C.Forbes

GO GATA!!!

The AM Fix was $413.20, up $1. The Gold Cartel said that was too high. No problem. they would just do what they could to bury the price on the Comex. By the time we got around to the NY open, gold was due 40 cents lower. Then I watched the euro take a dip to 127.39 (down only about .20) this morning with the pound higher on the day and yen lower. It was all the cabal needed to set the tone for the morning, meaning trash gold. They didn’t need to do much. The locals and the specs jumped all over the short side even though gold has closed lower 9 out of 10 days and dropped some $45 in two months. I blinked and gold was down $2.60.

Published on Tuesday, February 8, 2005 by Energybulletin.net

The End of The Oil Standard
by Greg Croft

Few commentators have recognized the significance of OPEC's January 30 decision to temporarily suspend their price band mechanism. If the suspension is indeed temporary, it may not be that important. If it isn't, there are some interesting parallels to the suspension of the U.S. gold standard in 1968 to 1971.

The gold standard was maintained by fixing the dollar price of gold and by federal stockpiling of gold. This was the means by which most currencies had maintained their value since ancient times. By the late nineteenth century, the growth in international trade had made the system difficult to maintain, but it continued for lack of an alternative.

The Bretton Woods agreements at the end of the Second World War reduced the importance of precious metals in the international financial system and the United States government suspended purchases of newly-mined gold in 1968. The United States gold market was fully deregulated in 1971.

Oil was sold at fixed prices under long-term contracts until the nationalizations of the mid-seventies, when oil traders began to play an important role. Oil prices became more transparent in 1983 when crude oil futures began to be traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange. From 1979 to 1985, OPEC tried to defend too high a price target and lost market share.

According to Pennwell's Energy Statistics Sourcebook, OPEC production declined from 30.67 million barrels per day in 1979 to 16.02 million barrels per day in 1985. The same source list OPEC's maximum sustainable production capacity as 34.4 million barrels per day in 1985. By the end of 1985, OPEC had 18 million barrels per day of shut-in oil production capacity. It became clear that there had to be a price ceiling as well as a floor. This was the price band.

Viewed from a different angle, an oil price ceiling is a dollar floor. Oil is traded in greater dollar volumes than any other commodity so the oil standard had more liquidity than gold ever did. The value of OPEC's oil production is more than a billion dollars per day. The oil equivalent of Fort Knox was not the Strategic Petroleum Reserve; it was the combined oil reserves of OPEC, three orders of magnitude greater and much larger in value than all the gold mined since the dawn of history. According to the December 20, 2004 issue of the Oil and Gas Journal, the oil reserves of OPEC at yearend 2004 are estimated to be 885 billion barrels.

According to the United States Geological Survey, the total gold ever mined in the world is about 3.4 billion troy ounces. At $42 per barrel for oil and $420 per troy ounce for gold, the value of Opec's reserves is 26 times the value of all gold ever mined. The United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve contained about 680 million barrels as of February 7, so it's role is an emergency supply in case of an oil market disruption; it is too small to have any long-term influence on oil markets.

Was the oil standard an accident or was it a deliberate product of U.S. policy? Motives are difficult to determine and the U.S. Treasury has not claimed to tie the dollar to oil prices. The ultimate effect of the end of the oil standard is difficult to predict, but one should not understate its importance.

--

Greg Croft is an Oil Exploration Consultant
http://www.gregcroft.com

Hi Bill,
This article supports my thesis that the oil price bands effectively dictate the bands of trading for the relative value of the dollar. I have received another mail from ODAC who are not expecting an oil price fall through $40/bbl due to ongoing tightness of supply.

This being the case I believe that whatever gold & silver low is put in as Oil approaches this level ($40) will be the PM bottom and time to purchase with ears pinned back – as we are likely to just rotate through the recent oil price bracket ($40 to $56) again before we break out to the upside sometime over the next 12 months when supply factors take over. My most recent expectations on this dollar index move are up to 88

(Euro 1.23 handle) simply due to the dollar trading bracket setup. A move up from the current Control Point at 85 may well be seeking the Next Control Point at 88 as there was a price time trading gap created on the recent decent from the 88 consolidation area on the DX. (ie we didn’t spend much time in the DX range of 85.5 – 88 on the way down last October). Given our market is generally short dollars a swift move to 88 is not beyond reason when we start making headway beyond 86.

In summary I reckon due to the fundamental oil setup this Counter trend dollar rally will be short, sharp, large, and reverse on its tail rapidly as soon as we hit Euro 1.23. The impact on leveraged gold and silver longs my well be decimating – but for those that stand aside with powder dry ready for the mother of all buying opportunities, these people will be richly rewarded.
Regds
David

As a result of the last many years of my ownership of Golden Star Resources, a substantial number of Café members own the stock. The joy of 2003 turned nasty the last 14 months with the stock falling from $8.64 to $2.90. UBS downgraded the stock after their last earnings report. However, Trevor Turnbull of Harris Partners Ltd and David Thomas of First Associates have just written the firm up in a very favorable light.

I met with GSS Treasurer Alan Marter in Vancouver and asked him to tell it like he sees it, which in turn is the way I see it and why I am staying with my position:

"(1) 2005 will be a good year with production expected to be 85% higher than in 2004; (2) the Wassa mine will be a great producer for the company, and this year’s production of 100-120,000 ounces will be modest compared with what the mine is capable of in the near future; (3) the turnaround has started, and results for the fourth quarter are better than the third, and the results in 2005 will be better still; (4) Peter Bradford, having relocated with his family to Ghana will be very close to the action and where the money is being spent, and this will be important for the redevelopment; (5) the delays in receiving permits at Bondaye were part of the drivers to review expansion plans, but the permits for Bogoso will be much easier to obtain (being an expansion of an existing processing plant, compared with permits for a new mine and plant); (6) the expansion at Bogoso is using very well accepted technology and will "unlock" seven or eigth years of reserves – all permitted; (7) the Bogoso production this year will equal last year’s but the expansion will amount to a 75% increase in production levels in future years."

GSS closed at $3.01, up 4 cents. Yesterday’s close below $3 set off margin call selling all over the place, which affected my other holdings like Samex (46 cents, down 4 cents), which has been pummeled for no reason other than forced/panic share dumping. Both of these firms should return to their 2003 form as 2005 progresses.

Speaking of my friend John Anderson, who also called the last gold market bottom almost to the tee, he is also an advisor to IMZ (International Minerals) which also re-tested their low from last year at $3.50, closing today at $3.70 Cdn, down 20 cents. According to John, IMZ "should trade back thru $5.00 on the next move and try $6.50 based on its 6.5 million oz of gold reserves."

The gold shares still cannot get out of their own way. The XAU went .05 to 88.64, while the HUI managed only to rally .27 to 192.64.

The gold and silver sentiment is about as bearish as it gets. We are due for some relief here and soon.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Better take a deep breath on this one from this German Café member re Brown and his Godfather:

Dear Mr. Gordon, ( public.enquiries@hm-treasury.gov.uk )

You are the most cynical member of parliament in EU - just like my Godfather and national socialist Prof. Dr. med. Karl Brandt (http://www.ushmm.org/research/doctors/medical.htm), the secret killer of hundreds of thousands of innocent human beings - who, being a medical doctor and the head of the nazi "health" ministry just killed and killed and killed...

While his justification was, the more he killed, the more he was helping to feed the hungry german army ...

It just depends on how you look at it!

So you are killing and killing and killing entire industries in the mining sector especially in sub-saharan africa, and you are killing these mines and these miners to feed their poor children ... ?

Why don't you create the british branch of secret modern NAZI cleaning program: To rid the earth of all "life, unworthy living" ?

At least that would be more honest than your screwed up and cynical "Gold sale for the poor."

Sorry for being honest with you !

Anyone can make a mistake.

But you are doing this for the second time.

So it is not that you are stupid. You know what you are doing.

It is clearly your evil intention - to hurt and further help to enslave the poor !

You are just too cowardly to stand up to your secret determination to hurt and destroy.

But we - the people of the world - we have had enough of national socialism, and silent killing.

So stop your lies, and get honest.

If you want to help poor countries - buy what they are mining - buy their gold !

Or shut up, and go home.

Sincerely,
Karl Bernhard Möllmann

Dear Bill,

Remember Mel Gibsons "The Patriot"

I've been a member for at least the last 4 or more years and can't wait till our day comes. We've done pretty good against the bought off financial media and brotherhood of bankers. Times right now are tough but we went through a few of these the last 5 years or so.

I'm writing to ask you shouldn't we take it to these rats? I would suggest we expose the truth about the gold sales from the IMF. We had support as you know from congress the last time this was floated. Whose gold is it anyhow? I would bet most of it is ours (the US). Turn this issue into them verses us. Who does Gordon Brown think he is suggesting we sell OUR gold to pay off bankers who have enslaved these countries! Tell the bankers to write off the loans! This is totally outrageous and should be ridiculed to the hilt. What do you think of putting advertisements in many smaller city newspapers and maybe a few of the larger ones (Washington Post, NY times)? If the GATA treasury doesn't have the funds I'm sure you can raise them through your readers and network.

I just don't want to see us sit back and take this bull. Keep up the fight and lets get more proactive. You use to be more so a few years ago and maybe that is what this Goldrush 21 is about. I just don't know if that is going to get the message out to the normal Joes out there who don't follow gold. I think some Joes out there would be upset if they here our country is ready to bail out bankers because of their oppressive loans.
Best Regards,
David

The obvious attack on gold by The Gold Cartel forces via the IMF talk has elicited more passion from Café members than anything in years. What is mind-boggling is it has been days now since IMF gold sale comments have circulated and still not a peep out of anyone from the mainstream gold world.

More on this tomorrow and on why GOLD RUSH 21 is so important. Some of those reasons are expressed in a number of emails sent my way. What stands out is the noticeably well thought out outrage of fellow Café members compared to the Casper Milquetoast silence from the gold industry/World Gold Council, etc.

Bill:
"To finance the relief of debts owed to the IMF and to enable the Fund to continue to play a role in the poorest countries, the Managing Director has stated that he will bring forward proposals ... covering the Fund's gold and other resources and in an orderly way," the communique said.

What am I missing here - the IMF has loaned these poor countries "money" created out of thin air, and now they are going to sell their gold to relieve the "debt"! Why not write off the loans and keep their gold. I can't believe this nonsense can go on for much longer.
Keep Up The Good Work
Elton

Which leads me to this note from a fellow Café member, one that makes a lot of sense as to the latest IMF doings vis-a-vis Fannie Mae:

Bill,
Your team may have already addressed this but...

Have you all looked into the likelihood that the Fed and its international brethren are actively taking control of the international financial markets in order to buy them time to straighten up Fannie's balance book?

Back in December, when the auditor came out and found Fannie to be around $9 billion off and left severely undercapitalized I thought:

"Oh crud. They can't let that problem hit the bond and currency markets. They'll do something drastic, even by their standards."

Look what's happened since then.

Every market that had to move in a certain direction to help out Fannie, has. And we all know how divergent that has been from economic fundamentals. Then we get crap like Brown is pulling with the IMF. I think they are preparing the markets to absorb the full news when Fannie's corrective action plan is announced.

Go back and look what went on behind the scenes with Long Term Capital Management became a serious problem. All hell was breaking lose but the domestic and international press was held in the dark. Or kept their knowledge hidden. These guys will do anything and they can't let Fannie take down the markets.

Just thought it might be worth investigating if your team hasn't yet. If you have, ignore this and keep up the good work.
Ron

Fine heads-up here by Ron. Fannie Mae (FNM) made new lows today ($61.86, down $2.59), leaving one noticeably ugly chart:

(Worth a good look)
http://new.stockwatch.com/swne…utilit_snapsh_result.aspx

Rhody with a PM leasing update:

Hi Bill:
What is up with lease rates??????? Yesterday, near term rates in silver rose almost 20% and today they are down by over 30%, and this pattern repeats all the way out to the 6 month term. It's almost like someone said, mission accomplished, stop leasing. When I am talking these large percentages it's from very small base levels. Silver lease rates are down to .22% from .38% in the one month term.

I did not comment about gold yesterday, because little happened. The same goes for today. There is no backwardation, but the rate curve is absolutely level, and at somewhat elevated rates. Someone is keeping the pressure on both these metals.

This is not for profit. For some reason the monetary interests want gold and silver down and that still screams financial system instability to me, and so does all this talk about selling IMF gold. That won't happen, as the IMF doesn't actually own it. The IMF manages the gold provided by other nations as emergency funding should the Bretton Woods system be at risk.

Somebody should tell people that the BW system ended over 30 years ago when the United States defaulted on its sovereign debt. That means the IMF is a relic and its gold serves no purpose. That's why the CABAL wants it mobilized to cap gold prices.
Regards, Rhody.
http://www.kitco.com/market/lfrate.html

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The US stock market flutters right along. The DOW rose 9 to 10,724, while the DOG gained 5 to 2086. Of concern to stock bulls should the dive-bombing action of Fannie Mae (see below) and the extraordinary strength of the 30-year long bond. March closed up another 13/32 to 116 7/8, another contract high.

As I recall, 9 out of the last 10 US economic reports over the last two months have come out on the negative side – nothing disastrous yet most all of them have been disappointing. The bond market action suggests something more than disappointing lies ahead. Seems clear to me why:

*Effects of low interest rates are behind us.

*Government stimulus programs are behind us, with a number of them to be cut back in the near future. One market sophisticate from Canada said it all today. The US is cutting back on programs whose money would have been parked with the US consumer and deploying it in bullets which will be blown up in Iraq.

*The US consumer is tapped out.

*The effects of prior US tax benefit reductions have mostly run their course.

The dollar closed up a scant .05 to 85.14 led by a strong yen (105.75). The euro gave up .08 to 127.72.

US economic news:

NEW YORK, Feb 8 (Reuters) - U.S. consumers felt less confident about the economy in February, due in part to unease over federal economic policies, though the outlook for personal finances improved, according to a survey released on Tuesday.

Investor's Business Daily and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence said their economic optimism index fell 1.4 points, or 2.5 percent, to 54.8 in February after rising to 56.2 in January. A reading above 50 indicates optimism….

-END-

This question of Financial literacy is really serious. Consider the comments later in this account by a spokeswoman for a basket-case nation lobbying group

"Nancy Birdsall, head of the Washington-based Center for Global Development and author of "Delivering on Debt Relief," said revaluing the gold would be less politically sensitive but would lower the IMF's cash balance and stifle its ability to lend to needy countries in the future.

"When it is gone, particularly if it is revalued so that there is a loss on the balance sheet, the heads of central banks of the G7 and other non-borrowing countries will sleep somewhat less well at night," Birdsall said. (JB italics)

Apart from accounting literacy, IMF gold sales are an esoteric matter. If the IMF revalued to market their gold on hand, they could then apparently write off some 72% of the 11 billion of basket case debt they have without impairing their capital. This is denounced as a book keeping matter, but in reality debt forgiveness is an extremely direct benefit to the debtor (as any mortgage borrower would immediately agree). Unless of course the debtor – and perhaps the lender – had already decided to ignore the obligation.

Fresh cash is a different matter. This could be realized by liquidating gold – or indeed any other IMF balance sheet asset – if the members felt like being charitable.

To confine the issue to gold, the strictly rational approach to debt relief would be to revalue and forgive to the maximum extent, and then turn to sales. The resistance to this sequential approach, to the extent that it is not simply illiterate, has to be considered as revealing the extent to which this campaign is driven by anti gold animus, as opposed to charity.

The noted gold bear today floats an interesting analysis, indicating that a massive decline in Comex call open interest starting late last year preceded the subsequent weakness in gold. He offers no explanation.

One wonders how sophisticated players could be so prescient.

JB

The John Brimelow Report

IMF considered

Tuesday, February 08, 2005

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.69, PM $7.83, with world gold at $412.40 and $411 35. Ample for legal imports. The Reserve Bank of India is said to have intervened today to prevent the rupee following the rise of the dollar.

UBS remarks this morning:

"One of the most interesting factors in the gold market in 2005 has been very strong physical demand, mostly from India, Japan and other Asia and to a lesser extent Europe. This week has seen further demand, although at a slower rate than was noted in January."

Physical demand, of course, was far from absent in late 2004. As to recent demand, Reuters says today:

"In Singapore, premiums inched up to 60 U.S. cents an ounce from 50 cents last week, indicating that consumers from Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand were buying gold at the lower prices." Gold stands today at a 4-year low in Thailand.

The ECB announced gold sales last week from subordinate banks of 81 Mm Euros, about 7.9 tonnes, rather more than in previous weeks.

TOCOM stepped aside. World gold did go out $1.30 below NY with the active contact up 7 yen, but volume was down 53% to only equal 11,895 Comex lots and open interest was static (down 27 Comex). Japan is not currently influential in gold.

Last night Refco Research issued a short call on gold, probably the first in half a dozen gold forays:

TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS:

Sell 1 April gold at market. Risk 420 (intra-day). Expect 405. Every momentum (or even short term chartist) must feel the same impulse. Rothschild – Sydney said yesterday:

"It now seems only a matter of time before we will see a net speculative short position."

A situation normally seen only at major lows.

A good exemplification of the curiousness surrounding gold commentary appeared to day on Reuters :

"IMF seen favoring gold sales over revaluation"

By Lesley Wroughton
WASHINGTON, Feb 8 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund is likely to favor sales over revaluation …analysts said… most analysts think the Washington-based lender's best course would be to sell some of its gold stocks rather than revalue them. While revaluing the gold stocks would increase the carrying price of the gold on the IMF's books, analysts said, it would not provide cash to fund the debt write-off. It would also come with costs for certain borrowers and shareholders."

In fact, of course, as discussed yesterday, most analysts actually involved in the gold business, who tend to be mildly literate in Financial matters, are bemused that anything except a revaluation/debt write-off would be considered.

I am purely guessing about what the perfect price of gold is, but keying off of the other times in recent history when conditions were "just right" as far as inflation vs. growth parameters. I think that the price of gold in U.S. dollars should be somewhere in the $380 dollar range. When it is above that, my thesis is that the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Government are adopting a too-liquid monetary blend of stimulus to keep inflation and deflation under control, while maintaining a healthy economic proposal. So the recent breakdown in the price of gold, according to my interpretation, is confirmation that the Fed is doing good—returning to norm. As we turn to Europe and Japan, however, we see that those ranges I’ve guessed are "just right" are now showing that they need to step up their pro-growth stances. I am really delighted to see this latest action in gold. This Baseline chart shows Friday’s lower low action very well. …Hays Advisory llc

So there you have it. I rest my case. That is exactly why The Gold Cartel and allies have done what they have – to elicit this sort of commentary, which in turn, does affect the markets in the short-term as various market participants act accordingly.

Do you think the US Treasury bonds would be soaring if gold was $475 bid? The significance of drawing this to your attention might turn on some light bulbs when you compare the US long bond with that of the share price of Fannie Mae (see below).

The following is a perfect example GATA has hit the nail on the head with our rationale. Don Hayes is a veteran, highly-regarded observer of the markets and is known for his keen technical analysis and market commentary. So here we have The Gold Cartel and officialdom orchestrating the price of gold down, the most obvious of market manipulations. Therefore, in terms of what it inherently means to the state of the US financial markets, the real/essential correlation is ZERO because the lower price is an artificial and orchestrated one. Yet, look at what Mr. Hays said yesterday in his market analysis:

..have cited that I am watching with HUGE interest the price of gold in dollars, as well as in euros and yen. I strongly suspect Greenspan is as well. The action last week is sending pretty strong hints that the Fed needs to take a breather on raising interest rates. Let’s give this economy a few months to send the next message. Remember, there is nothing I believe on the economic realm as much as that the real enemy the Fed is fighting during these next few decades will be Deflation, and not Inflation. I believe the Technology Productivity enhancement, the perfect pricing of the e-net, plus the glut of workers on the international scene will keep prices under control. There will be many battles in this war. The Fed has been fighting a serious battle since 9-11, and they have won it, BUT that is just one battle, the next one will be right over the hill. The price of gold is sending good vibes that we are not too hot, not too cold, but j….u….s….t right for the moment. But it is also warning Europe to wake up and smell the growth roses. It is also starting to warn Japan that they have a tough road ahead, and need to keep promoting those few reforms of the past few years to get back on track….