Beiträge von Schwabenpfeil

MARKET ACTION MAKES MARKET COMMENTARY. This old tried and true saying reveals its right-on colors once again. Since there is little of meaningful substance the US can do to about our fiscal problems in the short-term, it clearly reverted to what it does best these days, MANAGE the markets. Years ago now, gold broke HIGHER before the dollar followed suit on the downside. It was trading just below 120 at the time. This time gold broke lower first, followed by the dollar moving up. The US is going all out to change the perception about the dollar ahead of this meeting, doing what it can to diffuse the issue prior to its convening.

The degree of the manipulation today was confirmed by the bond action. If the wimpish jobs report was so dollar friendly and bullish for the US economy, why did bond yields not rise after a turbulent session? March 30-year bonds finished the day basically unchanged at 112 1/8:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/35

Then, we have another motive for the flagrant propping up of the dollar and trashing of the price of gold. From a fellow Café member:

hi bill-
yes the mkt. is miserable. i'm wondering if it has anything to do with the upcoming meeting in feb. of the G7.

to qoute the Privateer:

"France's Finance Minister Gaymard said the fall of the US Dollar could become "catastrophic" in world terms. Mr Gaymard said the US now "absolutely" had to understand that at the G-7 meeting of Finance Ministers which takes place in February, "coordinated" international management was needed. France has drawn a line in the sand. It would not have done so without global backing.

The Bush Administration has until February and that G-7 meeting - or - the world takes the money away."

maybe you have heard something in this regard.
rwh

The following is an excerpt from an article in today's Asia Times which offers a more sophisticated, in-depth look at what problems the US is facing, ones which the power structure wants to be kept as quiet as possible:

THE NAKED HEGEMON Part 1: Why the emperor has no clothes
By Andre Gunder Frank

Uncle Sam has reneged and defaulted on up to 40% of its trillion-dollar foreign debt, and nobody has said a word except for a line in The Economist. In plain English that means Uncle Sam runs a worldwide confidence racket with his self-made dollar based on the confidence that he has elicited and received from others around the world, and he is a also a deadbeat in that he does not honor and return the money he has received.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GA06Dj01.html

-END-

More evidence the US consumer is hitting the wall:

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. consumers unexpectedly scaled back their borrowing in November by the biggest amount ever, the first decline in consumer credit outstanding in a year, the Federal Reserve said Friday. Consumer credit outstanding fell by a record $8.7 billion in November to $2.085 trillion. That follows a revised $9.5 billion rise in October to $2.094 trillion, originally reported as a $7.7 billion increase. The November consumer credit drop was unexpected by Wall Street economists, who had forecast a $6.0 billion rise in consumer credit in November. Consumer credit data tend to be highly volatile from month to month and are frequently revised.

-END-

If all that weren’t bad enough, the US wage picture deteriorated:

08:30 Dec. avg. hourly earnings +0.1% vs. consensus 0.2%
Average weekly hours 33.8, in-line with consensus.
* * * * *

This is important as more and more stories are surfacing how the US consumer is beginning to wilt as he/she is falling further behind due to real US inflation. Pile on top of that a consumer who is tapped out debt-wise, and you have a recipe for a major economic slowdown in 2005.

Has it started?

U.S. economy gauge fell in latest week

NEW YORK, Jan 7 (Reuters) - A leading index of the U.S. economy fell in the latest week, due to higher jobless claims and rising bond yields. The decline was partly offset by higher stock prices.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index (WLI) fell to to 131.4 in the week ended Dec. 31 compared with an upwardly revised 133.8 in the previous week….

-END-

On closer inspection, the real numbers are remarkably different. From the ever vigilant Jesse:

Net out, we lost about 180,000 jobs in December

If one looks at the link you can see one of the tables from the 'back of the book' of the BLS.

Take a look at just the top line, labeled "Total Non-farm." You have to look at the dates above carefully. Under non-seasonal, look at December 2004 and November 2004. You can see that in November there were 133,207 (in millions) and in December there were 133,027. That's a loss of 180,000 jobs.

Ok, so we made it up in seasonality which is where the headline number came from. But if you look at what they did for seasonality for last year, it doesn't make any sense because last year the adjustment was mildly down.

The rest of it is hard to figure out just from this one table and they don't make it easy to find the non-seasonalized data for comparison. In another table I found that they went back and adjusted every month in 2003 DOWN, on average, about 100,000 jobs!

Can you believe these guys?

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t14.htm-

-END-

If this is what the Bush Administration and neo-cons are forced to put out for public consumption, you have to wonder what is really going on behind the scenes. My bet is the US military is near mutiny because so many of their troops are being killed and wounded with no end in sight and with a good number wondering why they are there in the first place. Not mutiny in the classic sense, but with so many of the troops part-time warriors, the dissent must be boiling in the military bureaucracy, most significantly among a fair percentage of highly regarded generals. Who can help but reflect on the fact that those in the Bush Administration who challenged the President and neo-cons over the cost of the war and amount of troops needed to achieve strategic objectives were FIRED? Yet, they were right. Those who challenged the notion of going to war so quickly because of doubts about Iraq’s WMDs were ignored too. They were right on that score also. Now we are stuck over there with no easy, or graceful, way out.

When it comes to the economy, the manipulation of the truth is just as egregious. This is what the Labor Department came out with this morning:

08:30 Nov. nonfarm payrolls revised to +137K from +112K
* * * * *

08:30 Dec. nonfarm payrolls reported 157K vs. consensus +175K; unemployment rate 5.4% vs. consensus 5.4%
* * * * *

This is just what is occurring:

January 7, 2005

MILITARY POLICY

Rumsfeld Seeks Broad Review of Iraq Policy
By ERIC SCHMITT and THOM SHANKER

WASHINGTON, Jan. 6 - The Pentagon is sending a retired four-star Army general to Iraq next week to conduct an unusual "open-ended" review of the military's entire Iraq policy, including troop levels, training programs for Iraqi security forces and the strategy for fighting the insurgency, senior Defense Department officials said Thursday.

The extraordinary leeway given to the highly regarded officer, Gen. Gary E. Luck, a former head of American forces in South Korea and currently a senior adviser to the military's Joint Forces Command, underscores the deep concern by senior Pentagon officials and top American commanders over the direction that the operation in Iraq is taking, and its broad ramifications for the military, said some members of Congress and military analysts.

In another sign that the Iraq campaign is forcing reassessments of Pentagon policies, Army officials are now considering whether to request that the temporary increase of 30,000 soldiers approved by Congress be made permanent. One senior Army official said Thursday that the increase is likely to be needed on a permanent basis if the service is to meet its global commitments - despite the additional cost of $3 billion per year….

-END-

Right on cue Snow comes out with the same laughable presentation he repeats over and over again. The only action the US has taken so far to support its strong dollar policy is rig the gold price – their ole standby. Curiously, apart from this covert activity, the prospects for US economic and stock market health is deteriorating, which should stunt the US dollar from going too much higher.

For weeks my focus has been on the big picture; that the situation in Iraq would disintegrate so badly it would have a significant impact on the US financial markets, and when it became apparent the US would make little, if any, progress on solving our US deficit problems, the dollar would resume its downtrend and break its 1995 lows - perhaps creating some chaotic market conditions.

If this is so, the US stock market should be belted and gold ought to take off again, this time for a myriad of reasons, with The Gold Cartel gradually losing control of their rig as gold rallies on more than on just dollar weakness.

The scorecard on this sort of analysis improved substantially this week, despite the orchestrated drop in the price of gold:

The US is in DEEP trouble in Iraq. Nine US soldiers alone killed yesterday. As mentioned often in December and as the Iraqi elections draw closer, the failure of our efforts there will become apparent to all. The Denialists will have to take a hike.

While gold was trashed, silver balked at going lower all session long and the gold/silver shares held much of their early gains until late in the day.

Meanwhile, the dollar, which weakened on the jobs report, soared in one of the more obvious market manipulations in years. For reasons I will get into, the subtle evidence reveals a US power structure apparently going into a bit of a panic mode. As an example of increasing desperation, the Bush Administration trotted out Charlie McCarthy Snow again with his standard recorded message, timed almost perfectly to coincide with the dollar rally:

US wants to support strong dollar, cut deficit-Snow

WASHINGTON, Jan 7 (Reuters) - The United States supports a strong dollar and wants to "do things", including cutting its deficit, to support the currency's strength, Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Friday.

"Our policy is a strong dollar, we support the strong dollar, a strong dollar is in our national interest. We want to do things to sustain the strength of the dollar, among them is going to the Congress to work on the deficit, to bring the deficit down," Snow told CNBC television.

"By doing that we generate more savings in the United States, and that will help us deal with the fundamentals of the economy in a way that is beneficial," Snow said, adding that making tax cuts permanent was also necessary to keep the economy on a strong growth path.

-END-

January 7 – Gold $418.40 down $2.10 – Silver $6.41 unchanged

US Power Structure Appears To Be Nearing Panic Mode

"We should never despair, our Situation before has been unpromising and has changed for the better, so I trust, it will again. If new difficulties arise, we must only put forth new Exertions and proportion our Efforts to the exigency of the times." -- George Washington

GO GATA!

When I retired for the evening, gold had recovered from Thursday’s Comex shelling to go up $2. Those gains held and were improved upon at the London Fix with gold at $423.15. By the time Comex opened and veteran traders knowing how the drill works (there was no way gold would leave a gap going into the highly anticipated US jobs report), it fell back to unchanged.

When that report was announced, slightly disappointing as to expectations, gold rallied nearly $4 when the bums showed up again. Locals and other traders, seeing the obvious capping of the rally, jumped in on the short side and took gold all the way back down. In addition to the locals, the funds turned massive sellers after the early rally, blowing gold through $420 and touching off even more stops. The "trade" stepped back, buying only gradually on the way down, "waiting for the last of the indiscriminate selling to hit the pits.” As the selling dried up later in the day, and after gold fell to $416.10, the trade became slightly more aggressive and joined the locals on the buy side.

Zitat

Original von The Merowinger

klar sind wir ein Goldboard. Doch wollen auch wir nicht in eine Art Betriebsblindheit verfallen und nur kaufen, kaufen, kaufen schreien.
Die Fakten sprechen momentan einfach gegen einen Einstieg.

Hallo The Merowinger,

ich denke nicht, dass ich hier kaufen, kaufen, kaufen geschrieen habe. Obwohl ich regelmäßig kaufe, also auch jetzt. Ich habe festgestellt, dass in einem speziellen Goldboard sehr viele "nicht kaufen" schreien, Daraus habe ich Schlüsse für das Sentiment gezogen. Wofür die Fakten wirklich sprachen, werden wir in ein paar Wochen und Monaten sehen. Wenn Du Fakten kennst, die dies schon jetzt mit Sicherheit aussagen, so nenne Sie hier bitte ...

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Zitat

Original von Jürgen

Es geht hier nur um die Tatsache einer überlegten Investierung. Selbstverstänlich sind Gold und Silberminen eine tolle Anlagemöglichkeit, aber auch wie alle Aktien nicht ohne Risiko. Im Jan / Febr/ März 2004 war der Zeitpunkt dagewesen, aus Gold und Silber auszusteigen.,

Hallo Jürgen,

diesem Statement kann ich nur zustimmen. Habe allerdings nie behauptet, Gold und Silberminen seien ohne Risiko. Generell kenne ich keinerlei Investionen ohne jegliches Risiko ...

Der Ausgangspunkt unserer Diskussion war hier aber, dass sich ein "Neuling" Gedanken machte, ob er einen Teil seiner Vorsorgemittel in irgendeiner Form in Edelmetallen anlegen soll. Dass Du dem so stark abgeraten hast, hat mich eben verwundert. Ich persönlich halte den Vorschlag von Thunderbirdy regelmäßig zu investieren eben für vernünftiger. Dies gilt gerade für Anfänger !

Die Spekualtion auf Zeitpunkte ist natürlich ein faszinierender Gedanke. Mal schauen, wer von Euch da dauerhaft richtig liegt ... Postet es bitte jeweils hier, wann Ihr rein oder rausgeht, damit man den Erfolg nachvollziehen kann. Ich will da eine gewisse Skepsis nicht verhehlen ...

Für mich gibt es eh nur physische Anlage oder Minen; Zertifikate meide ich strikt. Im "Nicht-Edelmetall" Anteil der Vorsorge hab ich schon genug Papier ...

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Hallo Lancelot,

Nevsun hat enormes Potenzial. Nicht "nur" für einen Verdoppler. Aber auch sehr sehr hohe Risiken. Deshalb überlege sich jeder, ob und wieviel er hier "setzen" will ...

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

HOW TO MAKE GOLD GOOD AGAIN

* Lost lustre: gold jewellery has been losing its shine for consumers as they spend on luxury goods, such as Cartier and LVMH brands, choose other precious metals for wedding rings, and see gold associated with such mundane objects as credit cards or biscuits.

* New setting: jewellery accounts for about 75 per cent of all new gold production but no mining company apart from Anglogold has so far been directly involved in jewellery marketing.

* Creating the right look: the World Gold Council campaign recruited National Geographic photographers in an attempt to show that ordinary people have a connection with gold. Anglogold took a different tack by teaming up with the US edition of fashion magazine Harper's Bazaar.

* By design: out-of-date designs for jewellery were damping demand. Now designers have been detailed to be more innovative.

* How gold is sold: retailers are being encouraged to make buying gold jewellery more enjoyable.

The common approach was sought by Jim Burton, the WGC chairman, when he joined the council two years ago and was charged with boosting sales of gold jewellery. "The advertising platform focuses on the emotional bond that women have with gold and contrasts how it is used in different locations and different stages of life," says Mr Olden. Gold marks important moments in women's lives, such as the birth of children, marriage and anniversaries.

"People have a very strong connection with gold, but frankly the industry hasn't done a particularly good job of reinforcing that," he says.

With the exception of Anglogold, no mining company has previously been directly involved in marketing jewellery, even though it accounts for about three-quarters of all new gold production each year. Ms Davanzo says more mining companies are interested in marketing jewellery.

Mr Olden says that, unlike other precious metals such as platinum and silver, where most of the demand is for industrial applications, "gold is driven by consumer demand, and that is why we believe that what we are doing is more than running a nice advertising campaign".

Philip Olden, the WGC's managing director of international jewellery and marketing, says an important part of the campaign is to be more inclusive with the jewellery retailers. "Our members and the retailers we work with now understand that the challenges we face are not necessarily what they buy when they are in the jewellery shop, it is getting them into the shop in the first place," he says.

He adds that the gold jewellery sector is very fragmented and rarely collaborates on co-ordinated advertising campaigns. This contrasts with the diamond industry where De Beers, which has a strong influence over the supply of diamonds, works closely with retailers.

Mr Kershaw at BBH says that the gold campaign is focused on the US, the largest gold jewellery market by value; India, the largest by volume; China, because it is a fast-developing market; Italy, because it is the larg est exporter and the centre for design innovation; and the Middle East, where gold is seen as a store of value as well as attractive to wear.

He says the marketing campaigns in each of these markets are similar in that they all use billboards and magazines, including Elle, Vogue and Marie Claire in the US and Italy, and are supported by point-of-sale marketing material and the website http://www.speakgold.com.

Anglogold has attempted to market gold jewellery online before. It was a partner with JP Morgan and Pamp MKS, a gold dealer based in Geneva, in the GoldAvenue.com website.

That website was set up five years ago during the dotcom mania to form a portal site, through which customers would be able to buy gold jewellery and invest in the precious metal. Neither the investment nor retailing activities of the site were commercially successful.

Ms Davanzo says selling jewellery via the internet on the Saison website has become more sophisticated, consumers seem more comfortable buying such products electronically and the company's 30-day return option also provides them with the security of knowing their choices are not irreversible.

Another factor that pointed to the need for an online strategy was time. "I only had nine months to devise a plan, to market the product, create a brand, work out the distribution logistics, and there was no way I could do all that by hooking up with a jewellery store," she says.

Meanwhile, the WGC has teamed up with Sterling, the US division of Signet, the UK-listed jewellery store chain, as part of its strategy to position the WGC-sponsored range of gold jewellery under its "Speak Gold" campaign, on which it is spending some $10m (£5.3m).

Anglogold, which is helping to finance the WGC campaign, has also launched a promotion of gold jewellery by South African designers. The Johannesburg-based mining company has taken a different tack from the World Gold Council by teaming up with the US edition of fashion magazine Harper's Bazaar. Mr Williams says the magazine "conveys fresh ideas and images".

Sarah Davanzo, chief executive of Gold R, a marketing company that specialises in promoting gold jewellery, says the link with Harper's Bazaar gives Anglogold access to the magazine's database of readers.

"We know how many 35-year olds are on $75,000, what perfume they wear, the toilet roll they use, how much TV they watch and what programmes," says Ms Davanzo. She adds that Gold R devised Anglogold's marketing strategy for gold jewellery without using an advertising agency.

"We found there was a market for gold jewellery with a good innovative design at prices that were not the prices paid in Bond Street, or Bulgari or Tiffany," she says.

Under the Anglogold-Harper's Bazaar tie-up, the mining company is selling its Saison range of gold jewellery through catalogues as well as direct marketing through its website, http://www.saisonfashiongold.com.

The need to project a certain look for gold is important as the metal has an image problem among consumers. Global gold jewellery sales were lower last year than a decade earlier; consumers are spending more of their disposable income on other luxury goods or on electronic gadgets and holidays.

Gold has also lost its appeal to couples tying the knot in western Europe, North America and China, who have shown a growing preference in the past decade for platinum wedding and engagement rings.

"Gold's image has become tarnished - it has been used to promote other products from biscuits to credit cards, but these promotions do nothing for gold the metal and often devalue its brand from something that is unique," Mr Kershaw says.

Kelvin Williams, executive director for marketing at Anglogold Ashanti, the South Africa-based gold miner, says the metal's image has also suffered from the lack of good new jewellery designs. Additionally, the experience of buying gold is not very satisfactory.

"Many of the traditional gold stores are pre-modern; they have not changed their retail concept for 50 to 60 years," he says.