Beiträge von Schwabenpfeil

Financial Times

Into a new golden age
By Kevin Morrison
Published: January 6 2005

When theWorld Gold Council, an industry body funded by mining groups accounting for about 35 per cent of global gold output, wanted to launch a new advertising campaign for gold jewellery, it turned to photographers from National Geographic rather than from the glossy fashion magazines.

Michael Yamashita, William Albert Allard, Jodi Cobb and Joel Sartore are more used to taking pictures of people and landscapes in all corners of the globe than going on fashion shoots.

Steve Kershaw, creative director at Bartle Bogle Hegarty, the advertising agency that worked on the gold campaign, says the photographers were chosen because the aim was to have a campaign to show that ordinary people have a connection with gold.

"When you look inside a National Geographic magazine, the images of people are very real, whereas you open a fashion magazine and you have glamorous models in a very unnatural environment, overtly sexy women wearing diamonds or promoting luxury goods in a way that has no connection with ordinary people," he says.

The prospects for the dollar moving up much from here are stinko.

*The Iraq horror show will affect US financial markets very negatively as we approach their month-end elections.

*The prospects the US will do what is necessary to reduce the deficit problems are slim. If they do take corrective action, it will jolt the economy.

*The US stock market is vulnerable to a steep move lower.

As the US financial markets begin to swoon, more and more investors in the West are going to turn to gold to give them protection against the US printing presses. They will join the gold party later than those in the East who are buying up all the cheap gold that they can.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!
MIDAS

Fortunately, GATA is right about the real fundamentals which is why we must press on. As difficult as this setback has been, it changes little as far as the big picture is concerned. Why we should see $500+ gold this year:

*The physical market is firm as can be.

*As each month goes by, it will be gradually become harder and harder for The Gold Cartel to find supplies to meet growing demand.

The way it is:

*For whatever reason, the crummy gold share action foretold this severe gold break.

*The Gold Cartel reigns supreme and is basking in their power.

*While they have to scurry all over the place to secure available physical gold to meet excess demand, the cabal has enough to get the job done.

*The correction camp is vindicated at the moment.

*The herd is right so far. Should gold continue down to $400, it will be the first time I have ever seen this happen in my 25-year trading career.

*I am wrong short-term and will be unless gold reverses course to close above $430 by the end of next week.

*My long held position that gold would never go where it should until The Gold Cartel is taken out to the woodshed is proving right. When all is said and done, the dollar tanking has meant next to nothing this past year. That is the key to the gold market, not what the dollar does.

*If GATA is wrong about the real central bank gold holdings, gold is dead in the water for five more years. Only when the bad guys are overpowered and run out of enough available supply will the price of gold really rise.

****

The gold shares continue to struggle. There is little interest anywhere. Most of the gold world is bearish and Wall Street could care less. The XAU fell .33 to 93.01 and the HUI sank .47 to 201.29.

Richard Russell last evening:

January 5, 2005 -- The questions are now coming from all directions. What would happen if the country sinks into deflation? What about the dollar? What if inflation heats up? Should I hold foreign paper currencies? Isn't inflation still the real danger? On and on, and the sad fact is that NOBODY EVEN KNOWS THE RIGHT QUESTIONS.

I want to talk about one possibility -- or let's call it one problem. For the sake of argument, let's say that the Fed fails in its frantic attempt to keep the nation on the inflation path. Let's say that the unthinkable happens -- the nation sinks into deflation.

During the early '30s the ideal place to be was in dollars. At that time the dollar was widely believed to be "as good as gold." The only problem was that nobody had any dollars. I was there, and I can tell you -- during the 1930s dollars were very damn scarce. You'd work your fannie off on a job (assuming you could find one) for fifteen to twenty of those scarce dollars a week (and as a teenager, that's exactly what I did). In the 1930s if a man could make five-thousand bucks a year he was one satisfied citizen, believe me, he was.

But as I said, back in the '30s there were absolutely no doubts about the dollar itself. The dollar was as solid as a bar of gold.

Now let's take it to today. If we get deflation in the months or years ahead, there are going to be grave doubts about today's paper, fiat dollar. Heck, there are already doubts about the dollar and trouble hasn't even hit yet. Can you imagine what the sentiment towards the dollar might be if this country starts sinking into deflation -- this country with its total of $32 trillion in debt of all kinds and varieties?

If deflation does enter the picture, I believe we would see an absolute panic for real money -- gold. With everything around us going bankrupts because of unsustainable debt, gold would shine like, well, like gold.

Anyway, there is one point I want to clear up. The dollar today is an entirely different dollar than the dollar of the 1930s. The 1930s dollar was a solid, gold-backed dollar. Today's "dollar" is a piece of paper worth nothing but the Treasury's edict that the dollar will serve, by fiat, to pay off all debts.

-END-

Rhody on the lease rates:

Hi Bill:
As you can see from the included chart, silver lease rates are rising again, while gold's rates are mixed. Notice how for silver the greatest increase of .04% occurred in the one month term, although there were minor increases across all the terms. This usually means near term shorting of the spot price. I am guessing here, but it looks like the commercials are still trying to flush out some stubborn longs in CRIMEX, or the CARTEL of COMMON INTEREST is trying to make a stand at $6.50 silver. With the US dollar on a rally, capping the price at $6.50 will eventually send the price lower, despite the tightness in the physical (real) world. Support should be strong in the $6.20 area but my guess is we are probably headed there.

If TA gives support at $6.20, would it give a bullish reading if we inflation adjust present dollars to the values in 2000 that would suggest that $6.20 today is actually about $4.20? Why doesn't TA account for the effect of inflation? These guys are drawing resistance lines back 3 or 4 years (using straight lines I might add) that assume the size of the dollars is constant! So, TA says support is at $6.20, but that's really $4.20 adjusted for inflation, and that is 15% BELOW the average price in 2000. Where's the bull????? There's lots of bull around, but none of it is present in these "markets".
Regards, Rhody.

Michel de Chabert-Ostland on gold and the HUI:

Bill,
Very important technicals reached on gold today. Using cash gold charts:

1. 420.90 low so far today is exactly 50% retracement of the move from 384.0 on 7/30/04 to the recent high of 457.63 on 12/2/04 which I viewed as a completed move. Under one approach to the market, the move from 384 to 457.63 could be interpreted as a completed leg of a bigger move to the upside, therefore the 50% retracement level reached today is important ( but there are possibilities for slightly lower levels - we deal in probabilities ). The other possible and lower retracements are 412.17 and 407.60.

2. In addition and under another possible scenario which is just AS PROBABLE as the more bullish possibility given above, basis the weekly cash charts, it is highly probable that we are correcting the move from 318.75 on 4/7/03 to the 457.63 high of 12/2/04. The possible retracements levels are: 424.78 ( already seen ), 404.38, 387.89. For a number of technical reasons too lengthy to explain at this time, the preferred targets for this correction are 424.78 and 404.38 with a slight preference for 424.78 or thereabouts ( slightly taken out at today's lows ). The market should at no time take out 387.89 to 389.50. If the name of the game is to take out all the short dollar positions that came in late to the game, then 404.38 is a possibility ( if we get an exaggerated cash dollar index move to the upside ) but not my favored scenario as of this moment.

In conclusion, we have reached some important retracements under two different scenarios for the cash gold market. If an investor/trader were not long gold or gold stocks, then it would be highly recommended that he/she establish an initial long position now, keeping in reserve more funds if the market reaches the lower levels identified above. I have huge support and potential target on the HUI between 194 to 197; it is trading at 200.68 as I right this so there may be a few more points to the downside. These would be exceeded if gold were to go to the lower levels identified above - as we all know, everything is probabilities and using one's funds judiciously to buy into retracements keeping more funds available if lower targets are reached. One can never buy the exact low or sell the exact high consistently and it is quite useless to attempt this.
Best Regards,
Michel

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW managed a meager 25 point gain to 10,622. However, the DOG is really struggling. It lost again, dropping 1 to 2090.

All is well:

1:53PM Fed-Speak : Kansas City's Federal Reserve Bank President Hoenig (non-voting) is speaking locally to business leaders. He has thus far stuck to the Fed-speak script, saying the current fed funds rate remains accommodative, that jobs growth will happen, inflation should not be an issue, spending will aid growth, current account deficit will shrink and housing market will slow. The market will be keen on any policy hints, but will remain on hold for the jobs report.

***

Cheap oil? Not so fast. Feb WTI closed at $45.56, up $1.17 per barrel.

The dollar shot up to 82.34, up .59. The euro gave up .90 to 131.84, while the yen rose to 105.04.

US job news:

06:21 MNST Monster Employment index declined to 113 in December from 117 in Nov.
Dec. 2003 level was 85. 8 of 20 industries tracked saw varying degrees of declines in online job demand, while 19 of 20 industries remained at higher levels y/o/y. Utilities; management of companies &enterprises; public administration; and professional, scientific &technical services showed largest declines in Dec.
* * * * *

08:30 Jobless claims for week ended 1/1 reported 364K vs. consensus 331K
Prior week revised to 321K from 326K.
* * * * *

The John Brimelow Report

JB: Bears getting imaginative; good Turkish chart

Thursday, January 06, 2005

India premiums: AM $10.02, PM $7.72, with world gold at $426.80 and $425.30. Huge, and high; lavish for legal imports. The Indian rupee initially resisted the $US strength, but then slumped 0.5% between the AM and PM pricings. These premiums are basis Bombay: the rupee prices in the other Indian import cities were more buoyant. The stock market did fall another 1.4%.

TOCOM quieted right down: volume fell 70% to only equal 20,234 Comex lots. The active contract closed down only 4 yen, but world gold was $1.90 below NY at the close. Open interest edged up 1,201 Comex lots: there continue to be remarks by the commentators to the effect that the Japanese public is a buyer.

(NY yesterday traded 52,020 contracts; open interest shriveled another 7,556 contracts – 23.5 tonnes! – to 294,742 lots. Open interest has now slumped almost 11% - 35,978 contracts or 111.9 tonnes – in the past five business days. Even without considering the role of short selling – which must have occurred - this is an unsustainable pace of liquidation. Open interest has not been this low since early October.)

Standard London says of yesterday:

"Good physical demand stemmed the decline and the market bounced in New York …Physical buying from Asia, India and the Middle East has helped to counter the recent bout of Fund selling, with the latter evidenced by a sharp fall in open interest on the COMEX"

Without this buying, gold would clearly be a lot lower today.

Today, of course, has been notable for a very powerful dollar rally. Gold in fact, has held up fairly well in Euro terms: on a chart it appears to have been trying to bottom in Euro since the beginning of the year. It is worth remembering that gold peaked in Euro on Nov 22 at E342: had it held that price to Dec 31 it would have closed 2004 at $465. Readers of these notes are aware that a great deal of selling of physical was required to achieve the actual underperformance.

Judging by the comments today of their Bartender, The Gartman Letter, the predator Hedge funds are beginning to strain in their efforts to force gold down further. Gartman floats the idea that the tidal wave disaster in the Indian Ocean will be used as an excuse to sell gold (why gold, amongst so many assets?) - a sign that the bears are beginning to feel the need for reinforcements. Appealing for Deus ex Machina sellers is usually a sign of bearish over- extension.

JB

Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Robert Stearns, a managing director at Marsh & McLennan Cos., pleaded guilty to criminal charges in connection with New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer's investigation of bid rigging in the insurance industry.

Stearns is the first Marsh employee to be accused criminally in the investigation that began last year. Marsh, the world's largest insurance brokerage, has lost almost a third of its market value since Spitzer sued the New York-based company in October. Spitzer accused its brokerage unit of rigging bids and steering clients to insurers that paid it the highest fees.

Stearns, 40, told New York State Supreme Court Justice James Yates today that he and others ``participated in a scheme with individuals at various insurance companies,'' including Ace Ltd. and American International Group Inc. Stearns pleaded guilty to a fraud charge and agreed to cooperate in Spitzer's probe of the industry….. –END-

That same Gold Cartel has engineered the funds into massive selling. Yesterday the gold open interest fell another 7,556 contracts to 294,742. They sold again today. Meanwhile, the cabal forces continue to cover their shorts.

There seemed to be a bit of panic spec selling today from those wanting to exit the long side of gold ahead of tomorrow’s US jobs report. The selling is way overdone. The floor is looking for a healthy turnaround tomorrow. Me too. Can’t be wrong every day.

Silver was dragged down by gold’s sorrowful performance. Seems to want to hold the $6.35 to $6.40 area.

Heard from our STALKER silver source this morning on why dealers are not taking delivery of available silver in the US and shipping it to Europe:

*They buy FOB here and sell CIF over there. The costs in doing so are extremely high.
*The Saudis want a particular kind of hallmarked silver which they can’t be sure of receiving from the Comex stocks.

Our source still says the paper traders in the US and the market here are very different from what he is dealing with in Europe. There is the real silver world over there and our paper game world here. Unfortunately, the Comex crowd has ruled for a very long time and continues to do so. One day that will end very abruptly and the price will move up very quickly without correcting. If our Chinese news is correct, silver ought to blow through $8 by the end of February and shoot for $10 by mid-year.

As usual, Mr. Gartman has his facts wrong. Been at this 6 years, not 15. He could bring half the gold establishment with him and it wouldn’t faze me. Would still win. Obscure facts? You mean like the truth? Appear authentic? You mean like facts emanating from Sprott Asset Management, the Fed, BIS, IMF, and the Russian central bank, etc.? Finally, if, as he says, he doesn't have enough knowledge to dispute me in person, how come he has enough knowledge to disparage GATA all the time in his newsletter?

The man is hopeless and a charlatan as far as gold is concerned. Could it be any more obvious he is nothing more than a shill for The Gold Cartel and the Wall Street establishment crowd?

Wall Street firms rig prices? Not possible according to Gartman. Riiiiiight!

So, if you think he is right, you might as well fold up your gold shop right now.

For those who missed the Gartman press release:

http://web1.kitco.com/pr/1037/article_01062005134221.doc

Mr. Gartman’s answer to the debate challenge to a fellow Café member following this request: please debate bill murphy

Roger,
Why? These guys have one interest and one interest only: I've many. Bill has spent fifteen years gathering all sorts of bits of obscure data during that period that he will use to bludgeon me over the head on this one single issue, and I guarantee you that under that circumstance I shall come off as a loser. There will be data presented that will appear authentic and good, and I'll have no ability (nor the time) to refute it. The place will be filled with gold bugs cheering their hero on; I'll stand alone... Nah, it's a mugs game and I'm doomed to lose on this single question conspiracy theory.
Dennis

Course the World Gold Council has a substantial advantage over us. They send material to the likes of a bulliondesk.com and it is posted. GATA sends material to the same outfit, like the Dennis Gartman debate challenge this morning, and they refuse to post it.

Speaking of Dennis Gartman, he was on Bloomberg today. (Bloomberg has refused to allow GATA’s name to be mentioned in the past 6 years). Jesse relates what Gartman had to say on TV this January 6 at 12:40 PM EST:

We will see gold continue to move dramatically lower.

The dollar will show surprising strength this year.

I will not be surprised to see spot gold will trade well below 400 dollars per ounce.

No longer a bull on gold, and on commodity prices as well such as wheat.

Dollar has been egregiously oversold. Budget deficit and trade deficit do not have predictive quality as to where the dollar will go.

There will always be the goldbugs like GATA who argue there is a conspiracy to keep the price of gold down. I have always viewed it as a commodity. Its day is over.

Had 30% of his fund in gold last year and has taken all of it out. Moving into steel, railroads, container ships, Canadian oils. He is out of all metals including copper, zinc, etc. Now he wants to invest in the USERS of metals.

-END-

Into a new golden age
By Kevin Morrison
Published: January 6 2005

When the World Gold Council, an industry body funded by mining groups accounting for about 35 per cent of global gold output, wanted to launch a new advertising campaign for gold jewellery, it turned to photographers from National Geographic rather than from the glossy fashion magazines.

Michael Yamashita, William Albert Allard, Jodi Cobb and Joel Sartore are more used to taking pictures of people and landscapes in all corners of the globe than going on fashion shoots…

-END-

The entire article is in the Appendix. With all that is going on in the world, the dollar in the crapper, and the US facing horrendous fiscal problems, this farcical group continues to pound away promoting high fashion jewelry. JEWELRY!! Jewelers want LOWER gold prices, not higher ones. Can you think of a worse investment than high fashion jewelry? What does it lose when you walk out of Tiffany's...40%?

One thing for sure: the World Gold Council is consistent. Promotions like this have done ZIP to facilitate higher gold prices over the years, so they stay with what hasn’t worked and do it again and again and again.

By the way, this article says mining groups representing 35% of the world’s gold production support the World Gold Council. If you go down the roster, there are only around 20 independent companies which support the council out of thousands of gold/industry related companies around the world. Over the years 41 companies/groups affiliated with the gold industry itself have supported GATA at one time or another.

January 6 – Gold $420.50 down $5.70 – Silver $6.48 down 7 cents

Disgust / Gartman Responds

"Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of human freedoms – to choose one’s attitudes in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way." Dr. Viktor E. Frankl

GO GATA!!!

I can’t remember a time over the past 6 1/3 years when I felt less inclined to do a MIDAS commentary. What is there to say? The Gold Cartel maneuvers this market around as their own cash machine, has done so for nearly a decade, and no one in this dopey industry says, or does, anything about it except the GATA camp. Could there be a more useless bunch of folks than the leadership in the gold industry? Excuse me, what leadership? Here we are in 2005 and gold is a few bucks higher than it was in early 1996. Oil can shoot to $45 and the dollar can fall apart and it means nothing when the casino is rigged. Today is one of total disgust. The day started out lousy when thebulliondesk.com posted this farce from the World Gold Council:

Zitat

Original von zweifler
Das ist ja das Dilemma - auf eigene Fausst kann man nicht mehr als diese Infos nehmen.

Alternative wäre ein Fond mit einem sehr guten Management - aber wer genau hat dann da im Detail den Einblick. Ergo: Auch schwierig.

Ich denke, dass man nur mit dem Markt gehen kann und dabei einfach möglichst breit streuen muss. Dann kann eigentlich nichts schief gehen

Alternativ könnte die Chart-Technik helfen. Da kenne ich mich nicht gut aus, aber wenn nur genug daran glauben, dann wird es auch so kommen ...

Gruss,
zweifler

Alles anzeigen

Hallo Zweifler,

einfach ist im Leben nun einmal das wenigste. Wenn Dir jemand dem Augenschein nach einen einfachen Weg aufzeigt, will er meistens nur Dein Geld. Charttechnik kannst Du bei einem solchen Wert vergessen (Meine Meinung !). Entweder Du traust Dir zu, das Potenzial selbst zu analysieren, oder Du hälst Dich besser fern.

Weshalb Du Silbertalers Arbeit hier mit dem "Stigma Pusher" versiehst, entzieht sich meinem gesunden Menschenverstand. Wenn Du bessere und fundiertere Beiträge abliefern kannst so bist Du herzlich dazu eingeladen

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Hallo Lancelot,

ich hatte die Aktie schon vor einigen Wochen oder Monaten mal im Board vorgestellt. Bin selber auch schon investiert. Allerdings bin ich schon vor dem gestrigen Hype eingestiegen. Ob ich den Kursen jetzt noch hinterherlaufen würde ? Ich weiß es nicht, zumal in Eritrea ja ausser der Einladung zu einer Konferenz der Regierung noch alles unklar ist. Die Tiefstkurse lagen übrigens so ca. bei 2 C$, ca. 1,50 USD und knapp über 1 EUR.

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Wir sind hier ein Goldboard. Eigentlich treffen sich hier nur Menschen die Edelmetallen und damit auch Goldminen- und Silberminenaktien eher positiv gegenüber stehen. Wenn sich selbst in einem solchen Board eine derarten schlechte Stimmung für Minenaktien breit macht, ist dies im Sinne einer Sentimentsanalyse eigentlich ein recht klarer Indikator, Allerdings in die "andere" Richtung

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Zitat

Original von Jürgen

Viele neugierigen Fragen die du da hier stellst, die ich aber mit Sicherheit dir nicht beantworten werde.

Hallo Jürgen,

schade. So "intim" empfand ich die Fragen in einem anonymen Forum eigentlich nicht ...

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil