Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Robert Stearns, a managing director at Marsh & McLennan Cos., pleaded guilty to criminal charges in connection with New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer's investigation of bid rigging in the insurance industry.

Stearns is the first Marsh employee to be accused criminally in the investigation that began last year. Marsh, the world's largest insurance brokerage, has lost almost a third of its market value since Spitzer sued the New York-based company in October. Spitzer accused its brokerage unit of rigging bids and steering clients to insurers that paid it the highest fees.

Stearns, 40, told New York State Supreme Court Justice James Yates today that he and others ``participated in a scheme with individuals at various insurance companies,'' including Ace Ltd. and American International Group Inc. Stearns pleaded guilty to a fraud charge and agreed to cooperate in Spitzer's probe of the industry….. –END-

That same Gold Cartel has engineered the funds into massive selling. Yesterday the gold open interest fell another 7,556 contracts to 294,742. They sold again today. Meanwhile, the cabal forces continue to cover their shorts.

There seemed to be a bit of panic spec selling today from those wanting to exit the long side of gold ahead of tomorrow’s US jobs report. The selling is way overdone. The floor is looking for a healthy turnaround tomorrow. Me too. Can’t be wrong every day.

Silver was dragged down by gold’s sorrowful performance. Seems to want to hold the $6.35 to $6.40 area.

Heard from our STALKER silver source this morning on why dealers are not taking delivery of available silver in the US and shipping it to Europe:

*They buy FOB here and sell CIF over there. The costs in doing so are extremely high.
*The Saudis want a particular kind of hallmarked silver which they can’t be sure of receiving from the Comex stocks.

Our source still says the paper traders in the US and the market here are very different from what he is dealing with in Europe. There is the real silver world over there and our paper game world here. Unfortunately, the Comex crowd has ruled for a very long time and continues to do so. One day that will end very abruptly and the price will move up very quickly without correcting. If our Chinese news is correct, silver ought to blow through $8 by the end of February and shoot for $10 by mid-year.

The John Brimelow Report

JB: Bears getting imaginative; good Turkish chart

Thursday, January 06, 2005

India premiums: AM $10.02, PM $7.72, with world gold at $426.80 and $425.30. Huge, and high; lavish for legal imports. The Indian rupee initially resisted the $US strength, but then slumped 0.5% between the AM and PM pricings. These premiums are basis Bombay: the rupee prices in the other Indian import cities were more buoyant. The stock market did fall another 1.4%.

TOCOM quieted right down: volume fell 70% to only equal 20,234 Comex lots. The active contract closed down only 4 yen, but world gold was $1.90 below NY at the close. Open interest edged up 1,201 Comex lots: there continue to be remarks by the commentators to the effect that the Japanese public is a buyer.

(NY yesterday traded 52,020 contracts; open interest shriveled another 7,556 contracts – 23.5 tonnes! – to 294,742 lots. Open interest has now slumped almost 11% - 35,978 contracts or 111.9 tonnes – in the past five business days. Even without considering the role of short selling – which must have occurred - this is an unsustainable pace of liquidation. Open interest has not been this low since early October.)

Standard London says of yesterday:

"Good physical demand stemmed the decline and the market bounced in New York …Physical buying from Asia, India and the Middle East has helped to counter the recent bout of Fund selling, with the latter evidenced by a sharp fall in open interest on the COMEX"

Without this buying, gold would clearly be a lot lower today.

Today, of course, has been notable for a very powerful dollar rally. Gold in fact, has held up fairly well in Euro terms: on a chart it appears to have been trying to bottom in Euro since the beginning of the year. It is worth remembering that gold peaked in Euro on Nov 22 at E342: had it held that price to Dec 31 it would have closed 2004 at $465. Readers of these notes are aware that a great deal of selling of physical was required to achieve the actual underperformance.

Judging by the comments today of their Bartender, The Gartman Letter, the predator Hedge funds are beginning to strain in their efforts to force gold down further. Gartman floats the idea that the tidal wave disaster in the Indian Ocean will be used as an excuse to sell gold (why gold, amongst so many assets?) - a sign that the bears are beginning to feel the need for reinforcements. Appealing for Deus ex Machina sellers is usually a sign of bearish over- extension.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW managed a meager 25 point gain to 10,622. However, the DOG is really struggling. It lost again, dropping 1 to 2090.

All is well:

1:53PM Fed-Speak : Kansas City's Federal Reserve Bank President Hoenig (non-voting) is speaking locally to business leaders. He has thus far stuck to the Fed-speak script, saying the current fed funds rate remains accommodative, that jobs growth will happen, inflation should not be an issue, spending will aid growth, current account deficit will shrink and housing market will slow. The market will be keen on any policy hints, but will remain on hold for the jobs report.

***

Cheap oil? Not so fast. Feb WTI closed at $45.56, up $1.17 per barrel.

The dollar shot up to 82.34, up .59. The euro gave up .90 to 131.84, while the yen rose to 105.04.

US job news:

06:21 MNST Monster Employment index declined to 113 in December from 117 in Nov.
Dec. 2003 level was 85. 8 of 20 industries tracked saw varying degrees of declines in online job demand, while 19 of 20 industries remained at higher levels y/o/y. Utilities; management of companies &enterprises; public administration; and professional, scientific &technical services showed largest declines in Dec.
* * * * *

08:30 Jobless claims for week ended 1/1 reported 364K vs. consensus 331K
Prior week revised to 321K from 326K.
* * * * *

Michel de Chabert-Ostland on gold and the HUI:

Bill,
Very important technicals reached on gold today. Using cash gold charts:

1. 420.90 low so far today is exactly 50% retracement of the move from 384.0 on 7/30/04 to the recent high of 457.63 on 12/2/04 which I viewed as a completed move. Under one approach to the market, the move from 384 to 457.63 could be interpreted as a completed leg of a bigger move to the upside, therefore the 50% retracement level reached today is important ( but there are possibilities for slightly lower levels - we deal in probabilities ). The other possible and lower retracements are 412.17 and 407.60.

2. In addition and under another possible scenario which is just AS PROBABLE as the more bullish possibility given above, basis the weekly cash charts, it is highly probable that we are correcting the move from 318.75 on 4/7/03 to the 457.63 high of 12/2/04. The possible retracements levels are: 424.78 ( already seen ), 404.38, 387.89. For a number of technical reasons too lengthy to explain at this time, the preferred targets for this correction are 424.78 and 404.38 with a slight preference for 424.78 or thereabouts ( slightly taken out at today's lows ). The market should at no time take out 387.89 to 389.50. If the name of the game is to take out all the short dollar positions that came in late to the game, then 404.38 is a possibility ( if we get an exaggerated cash dollar index move to the upside ) but not my favored scenario as of this moment.

In conclusion, we have reached some important retracements under two different scenarios for the cash gold market. If an investor/trader were not long gold or gold stocks, then it would be highly recommended that he/she establish an initial long position now, keeping in reserve more funds if the market reaches the lower levels identified above. I have huge support and potential target on the HUI between 194 to 197; it is trading at 200.68 as I right this so there may be a few more points to the downside. These would be exceeded if gold were to go to the lower levels identified above - as we all know, everything is probabilities and using one's funds judiciously to buy into retracements keeping more funds available if lower targets are reached. One can never buy the exact low or sell the exact high consistently and it is quite useless to attempt this.
Best Regards,
Michel

Rhody on the lease rates:

Hi Bill:
As you can see from the included chart, silver lease rates are rising again, while gold's rates are mixed. Notice how for silver the greatest increase of .04% occurred in the one month term, although there were minor increases across all the terms. This usually means near term shorting of the spot price. I am guessing here, but it looks like the commercials are still trying to flush out some stubborn longs in CRIMEX, or the CARTEL of COMMON INTEREST is trying to make a stand at $6.50 silver. With the US dollar on a rally, capping the price at $6.50 will eventually send the price lower, despite the tightness in the physical (real) world. Support should be strong in the $6.20 area but my guess is we are probably headed there.

If TA gives support at $6.20, would it give a bullish reading if we inflation adjust present dollars to the values in 2000 that would suggest that $6.20 today is actually about $4.20? Why doesn't TA account for the effect of inflation? These guys are drawing resistance lines back 3 or 4 years (using straight lines I might add) that assume the size of the dollars is constant! So, TA says support is at $6.20, but that's really $4.20 adjusted for inflation, and that is 15% BELOW the average price in 2000. Where's the bull????? There's lots of bull around, but none of it is present in these "markets".
Regards, Rhody.

Richard Russell last evening:

January 5, 2005 -- The questions are now coming from all directions. What would happen if the country sinks into deflation? What about the dollar? What if inflation heats up? Should I hold foreign paper currencies? Isn't inflation still the real danger? On and on, and the sad fact is that NOBODY EVEN KNOWS THE RIGHT QUESTIONS.

I want to talk about one possibility -- or let's call it one problem. For the sake of argument, let's say that the Fed fails in its frantic attempt to keep the nation on the inflation path. Let's say that the unthinkable happens -- the nation sinks into deflation.

During the early '30s the ideal place to be was in dollars. At that time the dollar was widely believed to be "as good as gold." The only problem was that nobody had any dollars. I was there, and I can tell you -- during the 1930s dollars were very damn scarce. You'd work your fannie off on a job (assuming you could find one) for fifteen to twenty of those scarce dollars a week (and as a teenager, that's exactly what I did). In the 1930s if a man could make five-thousand bucks a year he was one satisfied citizen, believe me, he was.

But as I said, back in the '30s there were absolutely no doubts about the dollar itself. The dollar was as solid as a bar of gold.

Now let's take it to today. If we get deflation in the months or years ahead, there are going to be grave doubts about today's paper, fiat dollar. Heck, there are already doubts about the dollar and trouble hasn't even hit yet. Can you imagine what the sentiment towards the dollar might be if this country starts sinking into deflation -- this country with its total of $32 trillion in debt of all kinds and varieties?

If deflation does enter the picture, I believe we would see an absolute panic for real money -- gold. With everything around us going bankrupts because of unsustainable debt, gold would shine like, well, like gold.

Anyway, there is one point I want to clear up. The dollar today is an entirely different dollar than the dollar of the 1930s. The 1930s dollar was a solid, gold-backed dollar. Today's "dollar" is a piece of paper worth nothing but the Treasury's edict that the dollar will serve, by fiat, to pay off all debts.

-END-

The gold shares continue to struggle. There is little interest anywhere. Most of the gold world is bearish and Wall Street could care less. The XAU fell .33 to 93.01 and the HUI sank .47 to 201.29.

The way it is:

*For whatever reason, the crummy gold share action foretold this severe gold break.

*The Gold Cartel reigns supreme and is basking in their power.

*While they have to scurry all over the place to secure available physical gold to meet excess demand, the cabal has enough to get the job done.

*The correction camp is vindicated at the moment.

*The herd is right so far. Should gold continue down to $400, it will be the first time I have ever seen this happen in my 25-year trading career.

*I am wrong short-term and will be unless gold reverses course to close above $430 by the end of next week.

*My long held position that gold would never go where it should until The Gold Cartel is taken out to the woodshed is proving right. When all is said and done, the dollar tanking has meant next to nothing this past year. That is the key to the gold market, not what the dollar does.

*If GATA is wrong about the real central bank gold holdings, gold is dead in the water for five more years. Only when the bad guys are overpowered and run out of enough available supply will the price of gold really rise.

****

Fortunately, GATA is right about the real fundamentals which is why we must press on. As difficult as this setback has been, it changes little as far as the big picture is concerned. Why we should see $500+ gold this year:

*The physical market is firm as can be.

*As each month goes by, it will be gradually become harder and harder for The Gold Cartel to find supplies to meet growing demand.

The prospects for the dollar moving up much from here are stinko.

*The Iraq horror show will affect US financial markets very negatively as we approach their month-end elections.

*The prospects the US will do what is necessary to reduce the deficit problems are slim. If they do take corrective action, it will jolt the economy.

*The US stock market is vulnerable to a steep move lower.

As the US financial markets begin to swoon, more and more investors in the West are going to turn to gold to give them protection against the US printing presses. They will join the gold party later than those in the East who are buying up all the cheap gold that they can.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!
MIDAS

Financial Times

Into a new golden age
By Kevin Morrison
Published: January 6 2005

When theWorld Gold Council, an industry body funded by mining groups accounting for about 35 per cent of global gold output, wanted to launch a new advertising campaign for gold jewellery, it turned to photographers from National Geographic rather than from the glossy fashion magazines.

Michael Yamashita, William Albert Allard, Jodi Cobb and Joel Sartore are more used to taking pictures of people and landscapes in all corners of the globe than going on fashion shoots.

Steve Kershaw, creative director at Bartle Bogle Hegarty, the advertising agency that worked on the gold campaign, says the photographers were chosen because the aim was to have a campaign to show that ordinary people have a connection with gold.

"When you look inside a National Geographic magazine, the images of people are very real, whereas you open a fashion magazine and you have glamorous models in a very unnatural environment, overtly sexy women wearing diamonds or promoting luxury goods in a way that has no connection with ordinary people," he says.

The need to project a certain look for gold is important as the metal has an image problem among consumers. Global gold jewellery sales were lower last year than a decade earlier; consumers are spending more of their disposable income on other luxury goods or on electronic gadgets and holidays.

Gold has also lost its appeal to couples tying the knot in western Europe, North America and China, who have shown a growing preference in the past decade for platinum wedding and engagement rings.

"Gold's image has become tarnished - it has been used to promote other products from biscuits to credit cards, but these promotions do nothing for gold the metal and often devalue its brand from something that is unique," Mr Kershaw says.

Kelvin Williams, executive director for marketing at Anglogold Ashanti, the South Africa-based gold miner, says the metal's image has also suffered from the lack of good new jewellery designs. Additionally, the experience of buying gold is not very satisfactory.

"Many of the traditional gold stores are pre-modern; they have not changed their retail concept for 50 to 60 years," he says.

Anglogold, which is helping to finance the WGC campaign, has also launched a promotion of gold jewellery by South African designers. The Johannesburg-based mining company has taken a different tack from the World Gold Council by teaming up with the US edition of fashion magazine Harper's Bazaar. Mr Williams says the magazine "conveys fresh ideas and images".

Sarah Davanzo, chief executive of Gold R, a marketing company that specialises in promoting gold jewellery, says the link with Harper's Bazaar gives Anglogold access to the magazine's database of readers.

"We know how many 35-year olds are on $75,000, what perfume they wear, the toilet roll they use, how much TV they watch and what programmes," says Ms Davanzo. She adds that Gold R devised Anglogold's marketing strategy for gold jewellery without using an advertising agency.

"We found there was a market for gold jewellery with a good innovative design at prices that were not the prices paid in Bond Street, or Bulgari or Tiffany," she says.

Under the Anglogold-Harper's Bazaar tie-up, the mining company is selling its Saison range of gold jewellery through catalogues as well as direct marketing through its website, http://www.saisonfashiongold.com.

Anglogold has attempted to market gold jewellery online before. It was a partner with JP Morgan and Pamp MKS, a gold dealer based in Geneva, in the GoldAvenue.com website.

That website was set up five years ago during the dotcom mania to form a portal site, through which customers would be able to buy gold jewellery and invest in the precious metal. Neither the investment nor retailing activities of the site were commercially successful.

Ms Davanzo says selling jewellery via the internet on the Saison website has become more sophisticated, consumers seem more comfortable buying such products electronically and the company's 30-day return option also provides them with the security of knowing their choices are not irreversible.

Another factor that pointed to the need for an online strategy was time. "I only had nine months to devise a plan, to market the product, create a brand, work out the distribution logistics, and there was no way I could do all that by hooking up with a jewellery store," she says.

Meanwhile, the WGC has teamed up with Sterling, the US division of Signet, the UK-listed jewellery store chain, as part of its strategy to position the WGC-sponsored range of gold jewellery under its "Speak Gold" campaign, on which it is spending some $10m (£5.3m).

Philip Olden, the WGC's managing director of international jewellery and marketing, says an important part of the campaign is to be more inclusive with the jewellery retailers. "Our members and the retailers we work with now understand that the challenges we face are not necessarily what they buy when they are in the jewellery shop, it is getting them into the shop in the first place," he says.

He adds that the gold jewellery sector is very fragmented and rarely collaborates on co-ordinated advertising campaigns. This contrasts with the diamond industry where De Beers, which has a strong influence over the supply of diamonds, works closely with retailers.

Mr Kershaw at BBH says that the gold campaign is focused on the US, the largest gold jewellery market by value; India, the largest by volume; China, because it is a fast-developing market; Italy, because it is the larg est exporter and the centre for design innovation; and the Middle East, where gold is seen as a store of value as well as attractive to wear.

He says the marketing campaigns in each of these markets are similar in that they all use billboards and magazines, including Elle, Vogue and Marie Claire in the US and Italy, and are supported by point-of-sale marketing material and the website http://www.speakgold.com.

The common approach was sought by Jim Burton, the WGC chairman, when he joined the council two years ago and was charged with boosting sales of gold jewellery. "The advertising platform focuses on the emotional bond that women have with gold and contrasts how it is used in different locations and different stages of life," says Mr Olden. Gold marks important moments in women's lives, such as the birth of children, marriage and anniversaries.

"People have a very strong connection with gold, but frankly the industry hasn't done a particularly good job of reinforcing that," he says.

With the exception of Anglogold, no mining company has previously been directly involved in marketing jewellery, even though it accounts for about three-quarters of all new gold production each year. Ms Davanzo says more mining companies are interested in marketing jewellery.

Mr Olden says that, unlike other precious metals such as platinum and silver, where most of the demand is for industrial applications, "gold is driven by consumer demand, and that is why we believe that what we are doing is more than running a nice advertising campaign".

HOW TO MAKE GOLD GOOD AGAIN

* Lost lustre: gold jewellery has been losing its shine for consumers as they spend on luxury goods, such as Cartier and LVMH brands, choose other precious metals for wedding rings, and see gold associated with such mundane objects as credit cards or biscuits.

* New setting: jewellery accounts for about 75 per cent of all new gold production but no mining company apart from Anglogold has so far been directly involved in jewellery marketing.

* Creating the right look: the World Gold Council campaign recruited National Geographic photographers in an attempt to show that ordinary people have a connection with gold. Anglogold took a different tack by teaming up with the US edition of fashion magazine Harper's Bazaar.

* By design: out-of-date designs for jewellery were damping demand. Now designers have been detailed to be more innovative.

* How gold is sold: retailers are being encouraged to make buying gold jewellery more enjoyable.

"TITELTHEMA:
FÜNF TRENDS 2005

WERTPAPIER schlägt Schneisen ins Dickicht des Kapitalmarkts. Wer die Trends rechtzeitig erkennt, ist auch im neuen Jahr auf der sicheren Seite. "

Als 2. Trend macht Wertpapier Gold aus: Genannt werden Chistoph Eibl, Edelmetallhändler Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein (" Ende 2005 rechne ich mit einem Kurs von 500 Dollar je Unze") und insbesondere Markus Mezger von der BW-BaNK ("Nach einem mehr als dreijährigen Preisaufschwung stehen wir heute nicht vor einer Trendwende, sondern vor dem Übergang zu einer beschleunigten Goldhausse"). Charttechniker Wieland Staud:" Wenngleich es aus heutiger Sicht zugegeben ambitioniert scheint - perspektivisch stellen die Anfang der 80iger Jahre markierten Hochs das Ziel dar. Als mögliche Etappenziele bieten sich Niveaus von gut 500 beziehungsweise 630 bis 650 Dolalr an. Momentan gibt es keinerlei Hinweis auf einen Abriss dieses Megatrends. Kratzer würde das rundum stimmige Bild dagegen erst bei einem Rückfall unter 380 Dollar nehmen"

Empfohlen werden Newmont Mining, Rio Tinto (angesichts 2005er KGV von 12 für weitere Kurssprünge gut), Yamana Gold, Richmont (Luxusgüterkonzern).

US-Arbeitslosenzahlen ohne großen Überraschungen

Erwartet 175.000, tatsächlich 157.000.
Zahlen November um 25.000 nach oben korrigiert

Bestes Jahr seit 1999, insgesamt wurden 2004 2,2 Mill neue Jobs geschaffen.

U.S. Adds 157,000 Jobs in December; Jobless Rate 5.4%
http://quote.bloomberg.com/app…d=aWcotCcv6RJw&refer=home

Kommentar von David Bond über den Kursverfall bei Silberminenaktien:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/bond/bond010705_wsj.html