Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

My only retort to XYZ is silver is like heavy dollar bills. Forget the Arabs for this exercise. If I am in the silver business and can buy silver in the US for X-5 and sell the same grade material in Europe at X+5, after factoring transportation costs, I would do so. It would be a lay-up arbitrage and an easy, no-risk money maker after further paying insurance costs. Especially since the transactions can be hedged. It would be like buying cheap dollars in the US and selling expensive dollars in Europe.

In response to a veteran Café member who is doing what he can to help out those poor souls in South Asia:

Thanks Bill. If you could do that it would be great. If you want to add this website link it might help too. http://www.gfa.org/gfa/tsunami. Our charity has committed to sent 100% of all the Tsunami Relief donations over to the affected area to help. We are not taking even one penny out to cover any administrative charges. Keep up the good work.
Wendell

The gold shares continue to stink up the place, flopping around with little sponsorship. The XAU lost .17 to 93.34, while the HUI gave up another .39 to 201.76.

Gold specs are liquidating like crazy and a number are pouring in on the short side. Meanwhile the cash market is on fire. If the silver fundamentals are as extraordinarily bullish as our information says it is, both precious metals are setting themselves up for serious upside fireworks – once this composure period and technical damage fallout period ends.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

There was so much feedback to Dennis Gartman’s outrageous and "over the top" comments re GATA and the investing public, I thought it would be interesting for all (especially newer Café members) to do some follow-up to put this buffoon in his place. The best way to do so is not by my name calling (which I am delighted to engage in at moments like this), but to go back in history and review what the man has said over the years. Once you read his utterances over time, it becomes very apparent the man is a shill for the establishment and The Gold Cartel – and knows remarkably little about the gold market.

His attacks on GATA are not new. He has been on our case for almost 6 years now. GARTMAN went after us soon after GATA’s formation and started the discourse, or feud, if you would like to call it that. Anyway, I would like to thank him for serving GATA so many softballs over the years and helping to make our case for us. This man is both arrogant and gold clueless; nothing more than a visible mouthpiece for the cabal camp.

More importantly, over a half decade ago, GATA explained to the world why the gold price was where it was and where the price was going and why. At the time, virtually NO ONE out there in the mainstream investment world was saying what we were. GATA has been right, which is our vindication…and this is only the beginning.

I need say little more. Gartman hangs himself:

April 23, 1999 - Spot Gold $283.30 down 30 cents - Spot Silver $5.15 down 2 cents

Sing a little song, do a little dance. Anything to shake up this gold market. There is no volume and no activity. No real action. Just dullsville……

Harry Shultz is for us. Gold Field Mineral Services and Gartman are against us. From today's Gartman letter:

"Finally, we note that Gold Field Mineral Services Ltd., perhaps the most influential research group in the precious metals' industry, has openly condemned the proposed suit and investigation against the US government and the world's largest gold trading organizations that the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) is proceeding with as composes of "rather exaggerated ideas." We concur completely. "

We are curious as to why Mr. Gartman says what he says. He never called to talk to us. It is news to us that GFMS condemned us.

(SO GARTMAN CONDEMENED US ALMOST SIX YEARS AGO, ONLY because we had the audacity to confront the establishment and his clients. The truth means nothing to this guy.)

July 8, 1999 - Spot Gold $256.50 down 30 cents - Spot Silver $5.24 up 2 cents

The strangest commentary came from the highly regarded Gartman Letter. This is what Mr. Gartman had to say today:

"Finally, Her Majesty's government in the UK responded to reports made by a Tory member of Parliament (Mr Quentin Davies) that the Bank of England's gold auction was done primarily to "save the bacon of firms that are running…short positions" in the gold derivatives markets. The Treasury's spokeswoman, Ms Patricia Hewitt, called such report "nonsense…and wild rumours." We've no doubt that several firms are indeed quite heavily short of gold, including Goldman Sachs (having inherited a short position from Long Term Capital Management) and Barrick (having accumulated a large short position over the past several years to hedge its gold production going forward.); however, this is the UK we're talking about, and not the former governments in Nigeria, or Indonesia or Cameroon where corruption is rampant. We may be naïve, but we find it preposterous to believe that an MP would even broad the subject on the floor of the Parliament. We congratulate HM's government for putting the rumours to rest swiftly and succinctly.

An open letter to Mr. Gartman,

From Bill Murphy
Gold Anti Trust Action Committee Chairman

Dear Mr. Gartman,
You have told your readership that GFMS condemned our investigation into the manipulation of the gold market and that you agreed with their condemnation. Do you also condemn Newmont Mining, Homestake, Ashanti, Placer Dome, Gold Fields and AngloGold for "demanding" a similar investigation?

Part of our investigation is trying to determine if Long Term Capital Management was let out of a "borrowed gold position" in an off market "rigged" transaction. That could very well be a violation of anti-trust laws. And of all people, you say in your own commentary that such a transaction has occurred. What gives?

And finally, what did you expect Her Majesty's government to say from the getgo? Oh, yes the sale is part of some sort of collusive activity! Do you recall President Nixon, " I am not a crook" or President Clinton "wagging his finger" denying any Monica Lewinsky involvement? Did you believe them too? Remember the embarrassed grin on former Clinton Press Secretary, Mike McCrary?

You have a very good reputation, but you sure are missing the boat on this one.

If you care, it would be my pleasure to get you up to speed and explain to you a good bit of what we know is going on here and will start by sending you this Midas. You might also like to know that I spoke with a major gold producer today and they are in "battle station mode." That letter to Prime Minister Blair was not sent to the head of state of England with nothing to back it up. The CEO's that sent the letter are very conservative people and very proper. You can be sure that was just a warning salvo; ie, "do something about the mess you have created or face the consequences". Along that line, Prime Minister Blair cancelled a 3-day overseas trip today to "work on the Northern Ireland problem". As far as I know the Northern Ireland problem has been around awhile. Perhaps, Mr. Blair has another, new big problem to deal with.

All the best,
Bill Murphy

This guy Gartman is incredibly pompous. The egocentric, smug attitude he espouses with comments such as, "The gold market had become far too heavily invested-in by the public, and those public investors have to be taken out."

What is the market if not a place of public exchange? Too heavily invested? Does his market have monetary limits, as well as a covenant for only the privileged or upper class? Is this a Freudian slip from a shill of the market makers, showing their disdain for the dirty, common, steerage, public investor that dares to enter into their elite playing field? "Have to be taken out", sounds like God has decided to thin the herd… Good grief! What a superiority complex! Admittedly, it is always a concern when an insider portends the direction of a highly manipulated market. But, what audacity! What unmitigated gall! He continues with his digs at GATA with this condescending depiction, "GATA folks are again aflame as they blame the weakness upon various market machinations by governments and large Wall Street organizations. This is utter nonsense of course but we shall never be able to convince GATA of that fact... and even if it is not nonsense; even if GATA were truly on to something, we should care not a whit for the market will move where the market needs to move."

Where the market needs to move? We shall never be able to convince GATA? Even if GATA were truly on to something? GATA folks? Reading between the lines, his implications can be interpreted in a number of interesting ways, which I shall leave up to the reader. But, does the market move to where it needs to move because it is being steered? Is his definition of weakness the incessant price capping which can be regularly evidenced by minute to minute charts? Does the fact that central banks have admitted to intervention constitute utter nonsense? And, his gleaming gem of candid truth about the possibility of manipulation, which is answered with a resounding, so what! This is a remarkable insight to the superiority that his ilk seems to feel and their complete lack of principles, values, or sense of fair play. Such a megalomaniacal outlook and lack of conscience is text book sociopath!

Moreover, why does he imply there was any discussion, "We shall never be able to convince GATA…" when no one from his camp, Wall Street, or the financial media will discuss the specifics of this matter, never mind debate it. But alas, why should they stoop to discussion with us knuckle dragging folks from the back woods, who could never possibly understand complex, sophisticated financial markets, when they care not a whit! His incessant need to ridicule GATA is an indication of our camp’s correct assessment of the fraud. Otherwise, why does he dignify us with regular mention? Could it be that we are the proverbial thorn in their side? I would pay dearly to see Gartman debate Bill Murphy. Why don’t these guys ever put their money where their mouth is? If we GATA folks are so easily dismissed as paranoid and delusional, why won’t anyone from these bullion banks or Wall Street sit down to a discussion. What are they afraid of? We may eventually learn as the drawn out legal proceeding, Blanchard vs. Barrick and J.P. Morgan Chase, serves as our debate of this matter. Go GATA!
Rich

I will debate Dennis Gartman on gold any time, any place. And GATA will sponsor the debate. How about doing so at the Washington Press Club Mr. Gartman?

Russel weist darauf hin, dass der Dollar 1930 eine stabile Zufluchtswährung war und dieses Mal alles andere als ein sicherer Hafen ist. Von daher wird es bei einem deutlich schwächeren Dollar eine Flucht ins Gold geben:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell010605.html

Vom Börsenbrief "Global Watch - The Gold Forecaster" gibt es ein kostenloses Exemplar zur aktuellen Gold-/Silberentwicklung zum Lesen:

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1105066800.php

January 6 – Gold $420.50 down $5.70 – Silver $6.48 down 7 cents

Disgust / Gartman Responds

"Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of human freedoms – to choose one’s attitudes in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way." Dr. Viktor E. Frankl

GO GATA!!!

I can’t remember a time over the past 6 1/3 years when I felt less inclined to do a MIDAS commentary. What is there to say? The Gold Cartel maneuvers this market around as their own cash machine, has done so for nearly a decade, and no one in this dopey industry says, or does, anything about it except the GATA camp. Could there be a more useless bunch of folks than the leadership in the gold industry? Excuse me, what leadership? Here we are in 2005 and gold is a few bucks higher than it was in early 1996. Oil can shoot to $45 and the dollar can fall apart and it means nothing when the casino is rigged. Today is one of total disgust. The day started out lousy when thebulliondesk.com posted this farce from the World Gold Council:

Into a new golden age
By Kevin Morrison
Published: January 6 2005

When the World Gold Council, an industry body funded by mining groups accounting for about 35 per cent of global gold output, wanted to launch a new advertising campaign for gold jewellery, it turned to photographers from National Geographic rather than from the glossy fashion magazines.

Michael Yamashita, William Albert Allard, Jodi Cobb and Joel Sartore are more used to taking pictures of people and landscapes in all corners of the globe than going on fashion shoots…

-END-

The entire article is in the Appendix. With all that is going on in the world, the dollar in the crapper, and the US facing horrendous fiscal problems, this farcical group continues to pound away promoting high fashion jewelry. JEWELRY!! Jewelers want LOWER gold prices, not higher ones. Can you think of a worse investment than high fashion jewelry? What does it lose when you walk out of Tiffany's...40%?

One thing for sure: the World Gold Council is consistent. Promotions like this have done ZIP to facilitate higher gold prices over the years, so they stay with what hasn’t worked and do it again and again and again.

By the way, this article says mining groups representing 35% of the world’s gold production support the World Gold Council. If you go down the roster, there are only around 20 independent companies which support the council out of thousands of gold/industry related companies around the world. Over the years 41 companies/groups affiliated with the gold industry itself have supported GATA at one time or another.

Course the World Gold Council has a substantial advantage over us. They send material to the likes of a bulliondesk.com and it is posted. GATA sends material to the same outfit, like the Dennis Gartman debate challenge this morning, and they refuse to post it.

Speaking of Dennis Gartman, he was on Bloomberg today. (Bloomberg has refused to allow GATA’s name to be mentioned in the past 6 years). Jesse relates what Gartman had to say on TV this January 6 at 12:40 PM EST:

We will see gold continue to move dramatically lower.

The dollar will show surprising strength this year.

I will not be surprised to see spot gold will trade well below 400 dollars per ounce.

No longer a bull on gold, and on commodity prices as well such as wheat.

Dollar has been egregiously oversold. Budget deficit and trade deficit do not have predictive quality as to where the dollar will go.

There will always be the goldbugs like GATA who argue there is a conspiracy to keep the price of gold down. I have always viewed it as a commodity. Its day is over.

Had 30% of his fund in gold last year and has taken all of it out. Moving into steel, railroads, container ships, Canadian oils. He is out of all metals including copper, zinc, etc. Now he wants to invest in the USERS of metals.

-END-

So, if you think he is right, you might as well fold up your gold shop right now.

For those who missed the Gartman press release:

http://web1.kitco.com/pr/1037/article_01062005134221.doc

Mr. Gartman’s answer to the debate challenge to a fellow Café member following this request: please debate bill murphy

Roger,
Why? These guys have one interest and one interest only: I've many. Bill has spent fifteen years gathering all sorts of bits of obscure data during that period that he will use to bludgeon me over the head on this one single issue, and I guarantee you that under that circumstance I shall come off as a loser. There will be data presented that will appear authentic and good, and I'll have no ability (nor the time) to refute it. The place will be filled with gold bugs cheering their hero on; I'll stand alone... Nah, it's a mugs game and I'm doomed to lose on this single question conspiracy theory.
Dennis

As usual, Mr. Gartman has his facts wrong. Been at this 6 years, not 15. He could bring half the gold establishment with him and it wouldn’t faze me. Would still win. Obscure facts? You mean like the truth? Appear authentic? You mean like facts emanating from Sprott Asset Management, the Fed, BIS, IMF, and the Russian central bank, etc.? Finally, if, as he says, he doesn't have enough knowledge to dispute me in person, how come he has enough knowledge to disparage GATA all the time in his newsletter?

The man is hopeless and a charlatan as far as gold is concerned. Could it be any more obvious he is nothing more than a shill for The Gold Cartel and the Wall Street establishment crowd?

Wall Street firms rig prices? Not possible according to Gartman. Riiiiiight!

Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Robert Stearns, a managing director at Marsh & McLennan Cos., pleaded guilty to criminal charges in connection with New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer's investigation of bid rigging in the insurance industry.

Stearns is the first Marsh employee to be accused criminally in the investigation that began last year. Marsh, the world's largest insurance brokerage, has lost almost a third of its market value since Spitzer sued the New York-based company in October. Spitzer accused its brokerage unit of rigging bids and steering clients to insurers that paid it the highest fees.

Stearns, 40, told New York State Supreme Court Justice James Yates today that he and others ``participated in a scheme with individuals at various insurance companies,'' including Ace Ltd. and American International Group Inc. Stearns pleaded guilty to a fraud charge and agreed to cooperate in Spitzer's probe of the industry….. –END-

That same Gold Cartel has engineered the funds into massive selling. Yesterday the gold open interest fell another 7,556 contracts to 294,742. They sold again today. Meanwhile, the cabal forces continue to cover their shorts.

There seemed to be a bit of panic spec selling today from those wanting to exit the long side of gold ahead of tomorrow’s US jobs report. The selling is way overdone. The floor is looking for a healthy turnaround tomorrow. Me too. Can’t be wrong every day.

Silver was dragged down by gold’s sorrowful performance. Seems to want to hold the $6.35 to $6.40 area.

Heard from our STALKER silver source this morning on why dealers are not taking delivery of available silver in the US and shipping it to Europe:

*They buy FOB here and sell CIF over there. The costs in doing so are extremely high.
*The Saudis want a particular kind of hallmarked silver which they can’t be sure of receiving from the Comex stocks.

Our source still says the paper traders in the US and the market here are very different from what he is dealing with in Europe. There is the real silver world over there and our paper game world here. Unfortunately, the Comex crowd has ruled for a very long time and continues to do so. One day that will end very abruptly and the price will move up very quickly without correcting. If our Chinese news is correct, silver ought to blow through $8 by the end of February and shoot for $10 by mid-year.

The John Brimelow Report

JB: Bears getting imaginative; good Turkish chart

Thursday, January 06, 2005

India premiums: AM $10.02, PM $7.72, with world gold at $426.80 and $425.30. Huge, and high; lavish for legal imports. The Indian rupee initially resisted the $US strength, but then slumped 0.5% between the AM and PM pricings. These premiums are basis Bombay: the rupee prices in the other Indian import cities were more buoyant. The stock market did fall another 1.4%.

TOCOM quieted right down: volume fell 70% to only equal 20,234 Comex lots. The active contract closed down only 4 yen, but world gold was $1.90 below NY at the close. Open interest edged up 1,201 Comex lots: there continue to be remarks by the commentators to the effect that the Japanese public is a buyer.

(NY yesterday traded 52,020 contracts; open interest shriveled another 7,556 contracts – 23.5 tonnes! – to 294,742 lots. Open interest has now slumped almost 11% - 35,978 contracts or 111.9 tonnes – in the past five business days. Even without considering the role of short selling – which must have occurred - this is an unsustainable pace of liquidation. Open interest has not been this low since early October.)

Standard London says of yesterday:

"Good physical demand stemmed the decline and the market bounced in New York …Physical buying from Asia, India and the Middle East has helped to counter the recent bout of Fund selling, with the latter evidenced by a sharp fall in open interest on the COMEX"

Without this buying, gold would clearly be a lot lower today.

Today, of course, has been notable for a very powerful dollar rally. Gold in fact, has held up fairly well in Euro terms: on a chart it appears to have been trying to bottom in Euro since the beginning of the year. It is worth remembering that gold peaked in Euro on Nov 22 at E342: had it held that price to Dec 31 it would have closed 2004 at $465. Readers of these notes are aware that a great deal of selling of physical was required to achieve the actual underperformance.

Judging by the comments today of their Bartender, The Gartman Letter, the predator Hedge funds are beginning to strain in their efforts to force gold down further. Gartman floats the idea that the tidal wave disaster in the Indian Ocean will be used as an excuse to sell gold (why gold, amongst so many assets?) - a sign that the bears are beginning to feel the need for reinforcements. Appealing for Deus ex Machina sellers is usually a sign of bearish over- extension.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW managed a meager 25 point gain to 10,622. However, the DOG is really struggling. It lost again, dropping 1 to 2090.

All is well:

1:53PM Fed-Speak : Kansas City's Federal Reserve Bank President Hoenig (non-voting) is speaking locally to business leaders. He has thus far stuck to the Fed-speak script, saying the current fed funds rate remains accommodative, that jobs growth will happen, inflation should not be an issue, spending will aid growth, current account deficit will shrink and housing market will slow. The market will be keen on any policy hints, but will remain on hold for the jobs report.

***

Cheap oil? Not so fast. Feb WTI closed at $45.56, up $1.17 per barrel.

The dollar shot up to 82.34, up .59. The euro gave up .90 to 131.84, while the yen rose to 105.04.

US job news:

06:21 MNST Monster Employment index declined to 113 in December from 117 in Nov.
Dec. 2003 level was 85. 8 of 20 industries tracked saw varying degrees of declines in online job demand, while 19 of 20 industries remained at higher levels y/o/y. Utilities; management of companies &enterprises; public administration; and professional, scientific &technical services showed largest declines in Dec.
* * * * *

08:30 Jobless claims for week ended 1/1 reported 364K vs. consensus 331K
Prior week revised to 321K from 326K.
* * * * *

Michel de Chabert-Ostland on gold and the HUI:

Bill,
Very important technicals reached on gold today. Using cash gold charts:

1. 420.90 low so far today is exactly 50% retracement of the move from 384.0 on 7/30/04 to the recent high of 457.63 on 12/2/04 which I viewed as a completed move. Under one approach to the market, the move from 384 to 457.63 could be interpreted as a completed leg of a bigger move to the upside, therefore the 50% retracement level reached today is important ( but there are possibilities for slightly lower levels - we deal in probabilities ). The other possible and lower retracements are 412.17 and 407.60.

2. In addition and under another possible scenario which is just AS PROBABLE as the more bullish possibility given above, basis the weekly cash charts, it is highly probable that we are correcting the move from 318.75 on 4/7/03 to the 457.63 high of 12/2/04. The possible retracements levels are: 424.78 ( already seen ), 404.38, 387.89. For a number of technical reasons too lengthy to explain at this time, the preferred targets for this correction are 424.78 and 404.38 with a slight preference for 424.78 or thereabouts ( slightly taken out at today's lows ). The market should at no time take out 387.89 to 389.50. If the name of the game is to take out all the short dollar positions that came in late to the game, then 404.38 is a possibility ( if we get an exaggerated cash dollar index move to the upside ) but not my favored scenario as of this moment.

In conclusion, we have reached some important retracements under two different scenarios for the cash gold market. If an investor/trader were not long gold or gold stocks, then it would be highly recommended that he/she establish an initial long position now, keeping in reserve more funds if the market reaches the lower levels identified above. I have huge support and potential target on the HUI between 194 to 197; it is trading at 200.68 as I right this so there may be a few more points to the downside. These would be exceeded if gold were to go to the lower levels identified above - as we all know, everything is probabilities and using one's funds judiciously to buy into retracements keeping more funds available if lower targets are reached. One can never buy the exact low or sell the exact high consistently and it is quite useless to attempt this.
Best Regards,
Michel

Rhody on the lease rates:

Hi Bill:
As you can see from the included chart, silver lease rates are rising again, while gold's rates are mixed. Notice how for silver the greatest increase of .04% occurred in the one month term, although there were minor increases across all the terms. This usually means near term shorting of the spot price. I am guessing here, but it looks like the commercials are still trying to flush out some stubborn longs in CRIMEX, or the CARTEL of COMMON INTEREST is trying to make a stand at $6.50 silver. With the US dollar on a rally, capping the price at $6.50 will eventually send the price lower, despite the tightness in the physical (real) world. Support should be strong in the $6.20 area but my guess is we are probably headed there.

If TA gives support at $6.20, would it give a bullish reading if we inflation adjust present dollars to the values in 2000 that would suggest that $6.20 today is actually about $4.20? Why doesn't TA account for the effect of inflation? These guys are drawing resistance lines back 3 or 4 years (using straight lines I might add) that assume the size of the dollars is constant! So, TA says support is at $6.20, but that's really $4.20 adjusted for inflation, and that is 15% BELOW the average price in 2000. Where's the bull????? There's lots of bull around, but none of it is present in these "markets".
Regards, Rhody.