Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

This Gartman guy knows as much about gold as Chief Inspector Clouseau of Pink Panther fame. His latest bit of dingbat commentary:

Turning our attention to gold and the precious metals, we note two things. Firstly, we note that we were indeed inordinately fortunate to have stood down from a long held bullish position on gold several weeks ago when spot gold was trading between $453-455. We remain upon the sidelines, noting that spot gold is back to a very important interim uptrend line that simply must hold here at the $428-430 level. We fear it won't however, for the gold market bulls remain convinced of the efficacy and soundness of their position, and the GATA folks are again aflame as they blame the weakness upon various market machinations by governments and large Wall Street organisations. This is utter nonsense of course but we shall never be able to convince GATA of that fact... and even if it is not nonsense; even if GATA were truly on to something, we should care not a whit for the market will move where the market needs to move. The gold market had become far too heavily invested-in by the public, and those public investors have to be taken out. They are and they will be, with the job likely not finished until spot gold trades below $400/oz once again, at which point we shall likely return to our long term bullish positions. Until then, like Chance the Gardner in Peter Seller's last movie, "We like to watch."

-END-

This is an example of present silver/gold sentiment among the "interested" public:

Today, I dumped the last of my gold and silver stocks.
I will never touch those pieces of garbage again.
Half of my proceeds will be used to buy physical gold and silver, on a dollar cost average basis during periods of weakness.
The other half will be used to buy the "Cult" Internet stocks like GOOG which sell for outrageous valuations, but never go down on a day like today………..
Good luck to all you guys at GATA.
I have finally had enough of the gold stocks.
New Years Resolution: NEM, PAAS, SSRI, etc. Never Again!!!!

Crude oil leaped up $1.78 per barrel to $43.91. Only 18 months ago, $43+ oil was considered to be a disastrous price for the US economy.

Veteran Café members will remember "Azteca de Oro" who sent us so much valuable input years back when he had the time to do so. He says hello to all from Mexico with some input on oil. While some of the news releases will be repetitive, I found it useful to see how an oil industry pro views it in toto:

Hi Bill:
Despite today's battering of metals and the shares, I feel that the cabal is finally reaching their manipulative limit. The light at the end of the tunnel is blindingly strong now. We know that they have their "hidden" hand in every market, and I am even strongly suspecting now that they are tinkering with the climate, but reality will soon catch up with them.....currently they are holding oil down desperately, as evidenced by the disappearing premium of WTI/Brent, not to mention the complete lack of new giant field discoveries in the last 2 decades and other very strong structural imbalances.

Soon, we will see oil going up again, despite all their efforts, and when it reaches $60 and it keeps going, we will see how the Gold-Oil relationship starts to kick in really strong again as Euroland will then have to bow to reality too ....
Best Regards,
"Azteca de Oro"....

Happy 2005......

Please see below oil analysis....the NWO Fed-oil-gold cabal got too smart for their own good.....

Date: Sat, 01 Jan 2005 21:24:36 -0500 (EST)

Happy New Year!

There are three very important messages I wish to relay to commence what could prove a historical year. This will be the first of three E-mails making the points. All the emphasis seen in the articles are ours.

1. The media has confirmed SenderBerl's long standing position regarding China all over Canada. Let the following extract make the point:
Source: http://www.villagevoice.com/issues/0452/ridgeway.php

WASHINGTON, D.C. Running below the surface of the year-end self-congratulatory assertions of American supremacy (as in Monday's Washington Times: "The world really is becoming more 'American' ") are warnings, often ignored, of our decline. The steady loss of the dollar against the euro is one. The spiraling trade deficit is another.

And in the past weeks, there were two serious economic signs signaling momentous change, if not outright decline.

The first concerns China's invasion of Canadian oil fields, heretofore a U.S. energy fiefdom. The second came in the form of an all-but-hidden report from the Department of Agriculture that America, the breadbasket of the world, is now a net importer of food.
OIL If the half-dozen planned projects worth $2 billion go through, Canada, our No. 1 energy supplier, could end up sending as much as one-third of its total oil exports to China.

One project would give the Chinese a 49 percent interest in a 720-mile-long pipeline running from Alberta to British Columbia. The Chinese are also eyeing an expansion of a second Canadian pipeline system, and they're discussing gaining an interest in companies with oil leases.

Much of this interest centers on extracting oil from oil sands. In the U.S., prospects for an oil sands development during the energy crisis of the early 1970s never got off the ground. It was discussed along with coal gasification as a possible alternative to what the industry at the time insisted were declining reserves. But when prices were deregulated and rose, along with profitability, all the talk about coal gas and oil sands died down. For the big international oil companies, oil sands historically have been dicey because of the high development cost, and hence reduced profitability.

However, as Kang Wu of the East-West Center in Honolulu told The New York Times last week, "For China, it is foremost about securing supply and secondly about profits." And that is one reason China is willing to go so far abroad. China's energy consumption is up some 40 percent in the past year, making it the second-biggest energy consumer in the world, ahead of Japan. Its booming economy depends on fossil fuels, especially oil imports. By 2020 China is expected to be importing two-thirds of its oil, some 80 percent of it from the Middle East.

It currently imports oil from Oman and Yemen, and China has explored deals with Saudi Arabia. Its imports of natural gas come from the Middle East as well as from Australia, and there is a possibility of China importing Caspian Sea gas through an extensive pipeline that would run all the way from Shanghai across the country into the rich Caspian finds of Central Asia.

As China's energy needs grow, emphasis shifts to protecting supply lines running through South Asia, some of them close to the always contentious straits between Taiwan and China.

For the U.S. military, protecting energy supply lines always has been a prime consideration of national security. And these economic shifts in Asia can only mean a further strain on U.S. military operations in that part of the world. More immediately, a diversion of Canadian petroleum resources to China is about the worst thing that could happen to the U.S.

Since the '70s energy crisis, we have been seeking to diversify supplies, trying to shed our dependence on the Middle East, and as a result the U.S. now relies increasingly on Canada and Mexico. We have always viewed Canadian energy resources as a backup-to be used when we are in need.

To say they are taken for granted is an understatement. We view them as our own. Free trade makes that condition even more explicit. If Canada actually begins to commit resources to the Chinese, that will lead to more direct U.S. manipulation of Canadian politics and economics; right-wing Republicans will use the China-Canada deals as one more argument for stepped-up drilling in Alaska, the eastern front of the Rockies, and on the outer continental shelf, all of them areas where remaining U.S. petroleum stocks are located.

End Extract

For obvious reasons we will add this E-mail to http://www.sendereberl.com/ac.htm. The only good news is that the NWO appears now to be listening and thus we highlight the importance of the next E-mail entitled New Year's Day 2005: Part II.

The above article was posted December 28, 2004. Two days later, the following was posted on Rense.com (http://www.rense.com/general61/sign.htm
Venezuela And China
Sign Oil Deal
BBC News
12-30-4

Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez has offered China wide-ranging access to the country's oil reserves.

The offer, made as part of a trade deal between the two countries, will allow China to operate oil fields in Venezuela and invest in new refineries.

Venezuela has also offered to supply 120,000 barrels of fuel oil a month to China.

Venezuela - the world's fifth largest oil exporter - sells about 60% of its output to the United States.

Mr Chavez's administration, which has a strained relationship with the US, is trying to diversify sales to reduce its dependence on its largest export market.

Thirsty for oil

China's quick-growing economy's need for oil has contributed to record-high oil prices this year, along with political unrest in the Middle East and supply bottlenecks. Oil prices are finishing the year roughly 30% higher than they were in January 2004.

In 2004, according to forecasts from the Ministry of Commerce, China's oil imports will be 110m tons, up 21% on the previous year.

China has been a net importer of oil since the mid 1990's with more than a third of the oil and gas it consumes coming from abroad.

A lack of sufficient domestic production and the need to lessen its dependence on imports from the Middle East has meant that China is looking to invest in other potential markets such as Latin America.

Mr Chavez, who is visiting China, said his country would put its many of its oil facilities at the disposal of China.

Chinese firms would be allowed to operate 15 mature oil fields in the east of Venezuela, which could produce more than one billion barrels, he confirmed.

The two countries will also continue a joint venture agreement to produce stocks of the boiler fuel orimulsion.

Mr Chavez has also invited Chinese firms to bid for gas exploration contracts which his government will offer next year in the western Gulf of Venezuela.

The two countries also signed a number of other agreements covering other industries including mining. Story from BBC NEWS:

© BBC MMIV

http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/business/4123465.stm
-END-

The gold shares continue to trek towards oblivion. The XAU lost 2.14 to 93.51 and the stinky HUI fell 4.39 to 202.15, closing not far from its lows. The scenario for sharp price rises in both gold and silver is staring us in the face. It appears more and more The Gold Cartel has struck to cover short positions before the "S" hits the fan during the weeks/months ahead.
Keep the Faith.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT

MIDAS

Dienstag, 4. Januar 2005

Das Hauptthema an den Finanzmärkten

von unserem Korrespondenten Bill Bonner

Das Hauptthema an den Finanzmärkten bleibt der Dollar. Die Leute denken darüber nach ... sie fragen sich, was daraus wohl werden wird.

James Grant schreibt, dass sich selbst Drogendealer nun dem Euro zuwenden. Im Oktober wurde ein Drogenkurier auf dem Weg von Spanien nach Kolumbien festgenommen, und er hatte 197.000 Euro in seinem Magen. Ich sehe sofort einen weiteren Vorteil des Euro – man kann ihn leichter schlucken. Die größte Dollarnote, die es gibt, ist die 100-Dollar-Note. Die Europäische Zentralbank hingegen gibt 500-Euro-Noten aus. Also kann man einen einzigen Euro-Schein schlucken, statt 5 Dollarscheine – und dieser Schein wird auch noch an Wert gewinnen, während er sich in Ihrem Magen befindet.

Das letzte Mal, das der Dollar so lange so stark fiel, da wurden die Zentralbanker des Planeten alarmiert, und sie entschieden sich, etwas zu tun. Sie kamen 1987 im Louvre zusammen ... und beschlossen ein Abkommen, das half, den Dollar an den Devisenmärkten zu stabilisieren.

Aber 1987 war eine andere Welt. Damals schuldeten die USA dem Ausland weniger, als das Ausland den USA schuldete.

Und der Dollar hatte auch noch keine großen Wettbewerber. Das kommunistische China war immer noch das kommunistische China. Das Wort "ehemalige" war noch nicht im Zusammenhang mit dem Wort "Sowjetunion" erschienen. Indien lag am Boden. Und den Euro gab es noch gar nicht.

Aber jetzt wächst die chinesische Wirtschaft drei Mal so schnell wie die US-Wirtschaft. Das chinesische Wachstum kommt durch das Produzieren von Gütern – und nicht durch den Kauf von Gütern – zustande. Und während die Amerikaner nichts sparen, sollen die Chinesen 40 % ihres Einkommens sparen.

Auch die Inder sind fleißiger als je zuvor – mit einem Wirtschaftswachstum von über 8 %. Überall in Asien sieht es so ähnlich aus – die Leute arbeiten und sparen, um so reich zu werden.

In Europa ist die neue Währung eine richtige Erfolgsstory geworden. Es wird angenommen, dass 75 % aller amerikanischen Dollar außerhalb der USA gehalten werden. Dollar waren eine gute Möglichkeit, seinen Reichtum zu erhalten, als man Rubel und Cruzado nicht traute. Nicht nur Drogendealer, sondern auch durchschnittliche Bäcker und Kerzenmacher fanden es angenehm, Dollarscheine unter ihrer Matratze zu lagern – nur für alle Fälle.

Aber jetzt ist der Euro eine echte Alternative. Nicht nur, dass man mit weniger Scheinen mehr Kaufkraft erhält ... das Papier behält seinen Wert auch besser.

Zuletzt hat der Dollar seinen Wert in etwa halten können. Die Tür zur Hölle hat gehalten.

Wie lange werden sie halten? Ich weiß es nicht. Für jetzt vielleicht. Aber wahrscheinlich nicht für immer.
http://www.investor-verlag.de

Ob der Euro wirklich eine echte Alternative auf längere Sicht ist?

January 5 – Gold $426.20 down $1.80 – Silver $6.48 up 7 cents

Silver Firms / Dennis Gartman: A Pompous Buffoon, Gold Cartel Lackey

A government that is big enough to give you all you want is big enough to take it all away....Barry Goldwater (former U.S. Senator from Arizona)

GO GATA!!!!

Right from the get-go, silver and the gold/silver shares showed immediate strength (only to fade as the day wore on, as usual). Gold was weak all night in Asia and into the early trading hours in London. This is completely in line with how gold has traded over the years. Spec liquidation continues, while the trade waits patiently to scoop up cheap gold.

Gold attempted to rally; however, like yesterday, the new shorts drooled whenever the price approached unchanged and they sold. This is also in line with the way gold has traded after major sell-offs.

Yesterday, MIDAS reported Goldman Sachs to be a substantial buyer covering their shorts, while the specs continue to give up the ghost. The release of today’s gold open interest revealed how true this was as it fell 8694 contracts to 302,298, which was in line with our expectations. Since it probably included a good number of new spec shorts, the COT numbers on Friday should reveal dramatic changes.

A number of commentators continue to point out how right the commercials always are. My take on that:

*If you had the US Government as a backstop partner, you could make money in the short-term just as many of them do.

*Their short-term battle wins do not tell the entire story, as they are losing the war. My guess (sheer speculation) is that the commercials are not that far ahead over the years, especially during this new millennium. They have been short as a group since gold traded below $300. Yet, they have had many short-term wins over the years. My guess (sheer speculation) is that the commercials are not that far ahead over the years, especially during this new millennium. Let’s say they picked up a net $15 profit on this sell-off, as they continued to sell on the way up to $455, starting at the $435 level. Let us then say they have been successful doing this 3 times a year for four years. It adds up to $45 profit for three years x 4 or a total of $180 in profits. Meanwhile, gold has rallied $180 off its bottom.

*One must separate the trading activity of the crooks (Goldman "Hannibal Lecter" Sachs and friends) versus the run of the mill commercials. This is very simplistic commentary on a complicated subject, as the real thugs have cleaned up during this time. Goldman Sachs’ trading positions have made a fortune, for example. The "commercial short" position includes hedgers like Barrick, who have been short all the way up as they hedged heavily with gold below $300 years ago. Subsequently, the Barricks have billions of losses on their books with their shareholders left holding the bag.

*In 1998 and 1999, the commercials did nothing but win. However, in 1997 when gold collapsed, they were slaughtered as the specs were actually very bearish back then and won the day. This was before the rigging of the price became apparent to other commercials, other than the cabal, and to the trading world.

*At the same time there are 13,000+ tonnes of gold loans/swaps still out there, other than those of the hedgers, which have not been called in. Most of those were put on with gold trading around $300, plus or minus. These loans, representing commercial interests, are enormous losers on someone’s books.

*The Black Box large specs have been taken to the cleaners over the years. However, a number of other specs have done quite well by trading from the long side.

*What’s most important is the big spec winnings have not occurred yet. This will happen when The Gold Cartel loses control of their fraudulent scheme and we get our long-awaited Commercial Signal Failure."

There is considerable technical support for gold between $420 and $425, which should hold. See:

February gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/YG/25

Funds sold silver early with Morgan Stanley an aggressive buyer. From what we hear, Morgan is very bullish, yet does not expect silver to rally too quickly because of the technical damage done on the way down. Historically, this is ALWAYS the case. Yet, if the input we have on the Chinese tying up ¾ of the 2005 silver production is correct, there is no way silver is staying at these low prices for very long.

The dollar fell .05 to 82.65, as did the euro, dropping .12 to 136.29. However, the yen rose to 104.09.

The John Brimelow Report

Was 2004 1986 re gold and gold shares?

Wednesday, January 05, 2005

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.90, PM $8.15, with world gold at $425.95 and $425.60. Ample for legal imports. The Indian euphoria experienced a jolt today, with the Stock Market down 2.9% and the rupee down 0.7%; in this context domestic gold did quite well.

Back for the first full day since December 27, TOCOM traded a heavy 67,121 Comex equivalent. The active contract fell to the lowest since September 17 before rallying to close flat; world gold was 20c below NY at the close. Several commentators remark that these was public bargain hunting – the Reuters Tokyo gold headline speaks of "solid bids" – but in fact open interest dropped sharply, by the equivalent of 5,067 Comex lots, to 106,894 Comex. (NY yesterday traded 60,295 contracts; open interest plunged 8,694 contracts to 302,298.)

The Shanghai Gold Exchange continues to show high premiums to world gold. The ECB reports an E10 Mm gold sale last week – perhaps a tonne. According to Bloomberg, Virtual Metals says the public data indicated the French sold some 50 tonnes of gold in the last quarter of ’04, strongly implying they are the lead seller at present. Maybe this is their contribution to Operation Iraq Freedom.

UBS sensibly remarked

"Gold confirmed its reputation as a leading indicator of broader commodity weakness yesterday… We believe…that much of the hot money has now exited long gold trades and that the metal is poised to rally once the US dollar stabilises… we like to buy dips in gold down to $420/zo and EUR315/oz…. The fall in the gold price in both dollar and non-dollar terms have prompted very strong demand over the past two days with Indian demand especially strong."

While conventional wisdom as for instance expressed by the Gartman Letter is still talking gold down to $400, it is notable that the noted bullion dealer bear quietly raises an interesting qualification:

"last year was only the second in recent history when bullion rose [5.6%] while gold share indices fell [HUI gold bug – 11.4%, XAU -8.7%]…the last time this share fall/bullion rise combination happened [1986], both bullion and gold equities had a roaring year after."

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

For the third day in a row the US stock market failed to hold early gains. The DOW sank late, falling 33 to 10,597, while the DOG yelped again, dropping 17 to 2091. This is not the way the Wall Street bulls wanted to start the New Year. All that cash supposedly on the sidelines is staying there.

09:53 Bullish sentiment unchanged at 62.9% in latest Investor's Intelligence poll
Bearish sentiment rose to 20.6% from 19.6% in prior week. Those expecting a market correction declined to 16.5% from 17.5%.
* * * * *

US economic news:

10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing reported 63.1 vs. consensus 61
Prior reading 61.3.
* * * * *

0:19 Challenger says announced job cuts in US increased 17.2% y/o/y
Challenger Gray and Christmas measured 109,045 job cuts, a 4.3% increase over November. * * * * *

NEW YORK, Jan 5 (Reuters) - U.S. planned job cuts rose in December, making it the second worst month for layoffs last year, according to a report released Wednesday.

Employment consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said employers announced 109,045 layoffs in December, up from 104,530 in November.

Still, for the year as whole job cuts decreased compared with 2003, and Challenger said there was reason to be optimistic in 2005.

"Job cuts are likely to continue their decline in 2005 with the economy showing signs of improvement. Jobs are finally being created at a steady rate and many of those jobs are in higher-paying occupations," John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas said. –END-

U.S. Employee confidence slips in December-survey

NEW YORK, Jan 5 (Reuters) - Worries about personal finances and increasing expectations of staff layoffs pushed U.S. employee confidence down to its lowest level in 2004, according to the latest monthly survey by Hudson Highland Group.

The survey, which polled 9,000 workers, showed its employee confidence index fell to 103.6 in December down from 104.9 in November--the survey's lowest level in 2004.

Thirty-one percent of employees said they expected their companies to hire new workers, while 19 percent worried about staff layoffs or losing their own jobs, the survey showed. A year ago, 17 percent were worried about layoffs, while 20 percent worried they would lose their own jobs.

Regionally, employees were most confident in Tampa, Dallas, and Atlanta, while the least confident employees worked in New York, Chicago and Philadelphia, the survey showed.

-END-

10:31 API reports crude oil inventories (9.2M) barrels
Gasolineinventories +4.1M barrels. Distillate inventories +4.6M barrels.
* * * * *

10:31 DOE reports crude oil inventories (3.3M) barrels vs. expectations (1.5M) barrels
Gasoline inventories reported barrels +2M vs. consensus +1.0M barrels. Distillate inventories reported +2M barrels vs. consensus unchanged or (0) barrels
* * * * *

This AP story spooked the stock market late:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050105/inflation_2.html

Associated Press
Consumers Begin to Feel Inflation's Pinch
Wednesday January 5, 3:19 pm ET
By Marc Levy, Associated Press Writer

Consumers Begin to Feel Pain of Inflation As Cost of Many Products and Services Marches Higher

HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) -- After a decade of relatively tame prices, consumers are starting to feel the "ouch" of inflation as the cost of everything from coffee, candy and home appliances is marching higher.

It's not a sharp pain yet, and some call it hardly noticeable. But with companies such as Procter & Gamble Co., Hershey Foods Corp. and Whirlpool Corp. passing along the higher prices they pay for raw materials to their customers, it's beginning to get attention from people who shop in grocery, appliance and department stores.

It's also getting noticed by officials of the Federal Reserve, and that could mean higher costs for everything from car loans to home mortgages.

Minutes of the Fed's Dec. 14 meeting released on Tuesday suggest that central bankers' worries about rising prices could prompt them to continue bumping up short-term interest rates -- which they raised five times in 2004 -- to keep inflation in check.

For the most part, inflation as measured by the Labor Department's Consumer Price Index has lagged behind the rising cost of wholesale products like fuel, steel and plastics over the past year. In the 12 months ending in November, the CPI rose 3.5 percent while the change in the price of finished goods at the wholesale level increased 5 percent.

But the supply chain, which seems to have absorbed most of the higher costs, may be reaching its tipping point. Analysts say a slowly improving economy is giving producers more confidence to pass on higher prices, especially as excess inventories dwindle and commodities, from green coffee to oil, stay at elevated prices.

"I think the faster rate of inflation is here to stay," said Nigel Gault, managing director of the U.S. economic service of Global Insight in Lexington, Mass. "The important thing is whether it is stabilized at the rate it is at, or whether it will accelerate even faster. That is the question."…

-END-

Incredible...all we have here is the truth becoming so blatant that Washington/Wall Street can't go on hiding it any longer. You have been receiving input such as this from MIDAS and other Cafe contributors for some time now.

What is occurring in Iraq is one sad catastrophe and is bound to dramatically affect US financial markets in the months to come. For reasons hard for me to fathom, investors don’t seem to be paying much attention to what is going on over there. The human toll on our soldiers is horrendous and is growing by the day with no end in sight. How much will Americans be willing to pay in human life/financial terms to help people who want to blow us up on a daily basis? This is all nuts. We are reduced to rooting for the Shiites to win the election. As mentioned before, this is exactly what the US tried to prevent in the 80’s when we backed Iraq in their war against Iran.