Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

*The euro gold price finished in new low ground at 319. The euro only fell .73 to 134.85 and the dollar only rose .39 to 81.39.

*The savvy Wistar Holt says it all:

Bill,
I just crunched a few numbers.
On December 1, gold closed at $453.50, reaching a high of $456 in the evening. The dollar index was 81.56.
Today, with a lower dollar index of 81.34, gold is $25 lower.
There really is NOTHING else worth talking about except the manipulation!

*While the past month has been one of severe aggravation, it is ironic how GATA’s credibility has leapt off the charts. With the dollar unchanged and gold dropping $30 off its highs, The Gold Cartel has made our case for us.

*And finally, I would like to emphasize a MIDAS point made so often over the past many months as awareness might highlight the coming gold turnaround. And that is the key to the gold market is NOT what the dollar does. It revolves around how the physical market can withstand the efforts of The Gold Cartel to push the price lower. The last few days/weeks of trading action has proved that conclusively.

The real story is how The Gold Cartel has used the dollar action to cap the price on dollar weakness and then attack on any kind of dollar strength when it suited them and when their forces were alerted to maul the price. Think about it. The three big down days over the past month occurred after the pro-Gold Cartel World Gold Council’s GLD lost 15 tonnes of gold overnight AND on two thinly traded sessions with most gold players out for the Christmas holidays. The damage has been tsunami-like from a technical perspective. The black box traders don’t care that is was a holiday induced bashing. All they know is their systems are all turning bearish. Mission accomplished by the cabal after a carefully planned and orchestrated raid. So what if it violates the US anti-trust laws? These people believe they are above the law!

That be known, the gold trading dynamics are likely to change in the months ahead. Gold is likely to charge higher because of numerous other factors than a weak dollar. We must remain vigilant to spot those factors as they come into play.

While it is my tendency to think this way, it sure appears something is very wrong out there behind the scenes in US financial land. There still hasn’t been any reaction to the Fannie Mae fiasco. Iraq deteriorates by the day. And, the US stock market has not acted very well the past three trading sessions, selling off late each day. This afternoon the DOW failed miserably, putting in a very technically bearish outside key reversal day to the downside. Why this action is so negative:

*During a seasonably strong period, the DOW has now sold off near the close three days in a row, closing at 10,729, down 54.
*Four times the DOW rose to 10,875. Each time it failed to punch through that level and has formed a noticeable top.
*It has broken its uptrend line.
*Bad news is staring the US market action in the face for 2005 and today’s market action reflects what is ahead.

March DOW
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/DW/X

The DOG dropped 23 to 2152.

Meanwhile, most all of Wall Street and Main Street is confidently bullish for 2005.

Yes, one day’s stock market action is meaningless for the long haul. However, when you combine it with the recent unprecedented assault on gold, it suggests something is very wrong in US financial land and it has The Gold Cartel and Working Group on Financial Markets petrified.

As a result, The Gold Cartel is going all out to demoralize gold investors. They have succeeded to a substantial degree when it comes to the West, including many Café members. However, the big gold buyers in the East only retort is, "THANK YOU VERY MUCH for allowing us to scoop up more cheap gold." This is the Achilles Heel for the corrupt Gold Cartel.

Sure we can have some additional aggravation near-term. Yet, the big picture could not be brighter. The potential for convulsions in the US financial markets in the months to come is extremely high. As they kick in, more and more of the investment world will want to own gold. As this occurs, the cabal bums will lose control of their fraudulent scheme. Patience and understanding of what is to come, and why, will win the day for our team.

In football terms, the cocky cartel began the year by scoring two quick easy touchdowns with a number of our players out of action and we are down 14 – 0. Over the years I have seen so many teams become overconfident with such early success. As a football game proceeds, momentum often shifts decisively with quick, too-easy success vanishing. This is what I see ahead as far as gold is concerned. By year’s end, these devious, arrogant crooks will be routed.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Copy of letter sent to Deutsche Bank in Germany:

Gold wars & shareholder value ?

Sehr geehrte Damen & Herren,

aus Amerika liegen Ernst zu nehmende Beschuldigungen vor, daß die Deutsche Bank zusammen mit Goldmann Sachs und J.P. Morgan als "Anführer" im sogenannten Gold Kartell aus Gründen des Profites, unter Verletzung der einschlägigen Gesetze und zum Schaden all jener Bürger, die auch bei den Edelmetallen auf die Kräfte des freien Marktes vertrauen, tief und chronisch in die andauernde Goldpreis Manipulation verstrickt ist - was meiner Meinung nach nur den einen Schluß zuläßt, daß auch die Deutsche Bank zu den Rädelsführern dieser internationalen Betrugs - Affaire zu zählen sein könnte.

Wie hoch schätzen sie das Risiko für Ihre Aktionäre ein, für den Fall, daß dieser Verdacht und der aus den möglichen, folgenden internationalen staatsanwaltlichen Untersuchungen resultierende Ruf- und Vertrauensschaden für Ihr wertes Institut in aller Öffentlichkeit, also in den internationalen Medien diskutiert wird ?

Hochachtungsvoll
Karl Bernhard Möllmann

Translation:

Gold wars & shareholder value ?

Ladies and gentlemen,

Coming from America there is substantial accusations, that Deutsche Bank together with Goldman Sachs and J.P.Morgan as leaders, is being involved deeply and chronically into the continuing gold price manipulation, being part of the so called gold cartel for reason of profit, under violation of the law, and to the harm of all those citizens that in the markets for precious metals trust in the free markets policy - which to my opinion leads to only one conclusion - that also Deutsche Bank might be accounted for being a ringleader in this international affaire of fraud.

What is your estimate of risc for your shareholders, regarding the damage for your reputed institute, when this suspicion and the possibly following international public prosecutions and investigations, concerning your reputation and public trust, might be discussed in the open public, that is the international media ?

Sincerely
Karl Bernhard Möllmann

extrel

danke für die Übersetzung des ausgezeichneten Artikels von Kent Willis

Der Fonds
Goldfondsmanager unbeirrt optimistisch
Dienstag 4. Januar 2005, 15:08 Uhr

Erst der Höhenflug, dann der Fall: Der PEH-Q-Goldmines (WKN 986 366) hat von 2001 bis 2003 satte Gewinne eingefahren, 2004 machte er jedoch ein Minus von 29,8 Prozent und ist damit laut Rating-Agentur Morningstar der schlechteste Fonds des vergangenen Jahres. DER FONDS.com fragte Fondsmanager Martin Siegel nach den Gründen für die schlechte Performance und den Zukunftsaussichten seines Goldfonds.

DER FONDS.com: Der PEH-Q-Goldmines fährt Achterbahn (Xetra: 500740.DE - Nachrichten)
ANZEIGE
. Wie erklären Sie die aktuelle Talfahrt?

Martin Siegel: Mein Fonds ist hauptsächlich in kleinere und mittlere Unternehmen investiert. Mit dieser Strategie ging es von 2001 bis 2003 schnell nach oben, entsprechend groß war im vergangenen Jahr jedoch auch die Reaktion nach unten. Der Goldpreis ist im ersten Halbjahr 2004 gefallen, anschließend ging es bis zum Jahresende wieder bergauf. Insgesamt legte der Preis auf Dollarbasis leicht zu. Auf diesen Anstieg haben die kleineren Unternehmen einfach nicht so schnell reagiert wie die großen. Darum hinke ich den anderen Goldfonds hinterher.

DER FONDS.com: Ein Unze Gold kostete 2004 im Schnitt rund 400 Dollar, zwischenzeitlich stand der Preis sogar bei 450 Dollar. Das ist ein Spitzenwert, wenn man bedenkt, dass der Goldpreis 2001 bei 271 Dollar startete und erst Ende 2003 überhaupt die 400-Dollar-Grenze durchbrach. Warum hat das die Performance Ihres Fonds nicht angeheizt?

Siegel: Auf US-Dollarbasis sehen wir in der Tat ein 16-Jahres-Hoch, doch durch die Dollarschwäche sank der Goldpreis in anderen Währungen. Auf Eurobasis sank der Goldpreis 2004 um 3 Prozent, in australischen Dollar blieb er etwa gleich, in kanadischen Dollar legte er ebenfalls um etwa 3 Prozent zu. Gleichzeitig stiegen jedoch die Kosten der Goldminen enorm, vor allem durch steigende Stahl- und Energiepreise. Durch die steigenden Kosten bei einem fast stagnierenden Goldpreis in heimischer Währung, fielen die Gewinnmargen, was auf die Aktienkurse der Goldproduzenten drückte. 2004 war damit entgegen der landläufigen Meinung ein schlechtes Goldjahr.

DER FONDS.com: Und wie sind Ihre Einschätzungen für 2005?

Siegel: Dieses Jahr will ich mindestens den Verlust des vergangenen Jahres wieder ausgleichen. Ein Plus von 50 Prozent halte ich durchaus für realistisch.

DER FONDS.com: Auch in den Vormonaten sind sie von einem Plus von bis zu 40 Prozent ausgegangen, doch es kam anders. Warum sind Sie immer noch so optimistisch?

Siegel: Ich dachte vergangenes Jahr, dass sich der Goldpreis von der schwachen Entwicklung des Dollars abkoppelt, was leider nicht passiert ist. In diesem Jahr rechne ich jedoch mit einem Anstieg des Goldpreises in allen Währungen. Der Dollar wird sich stabilisieren und die Nachfrage nach Gold weltweit steigen. Ich erwarte im Jahresverlauf zudem nachlassende Verkäufe von europäischen Zentralbanken, dafür eine stärkere Nachfrage von Privatanlegern, beispielsweise aus China und Indien. Zudem glaube ich, dass institutionelle Investoren wie Hedge-Fonds Gold als echte Alternative entdecken und vermehrt einsteigen werden. Noch ist der Goldsektor relativ unentdeckt, und es gibt noch viel Potenzial.

DER FONDS.com: Haben Sie Ihr Portfolio nach der Schlappe in 2004 umgestellt?

Siegel: Ja, durch die schlechte Rand-Entwicklung habe ich mein Südafrika-Engagement um 10 Prozent reduziert. Dafür bin ich in Kanada verstärkt eingestiegen. Außerdem habe ich einige kleinere Unternehmen verkauft und auf größere Firmen umgesattelt. Aktuell machen australische Firmen mit etwa 45 Prozent den Löwenanteil des Fondsportfolios aus. Sie sind mit einem Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis von rund 15 noch unterbewertet. Kanadische Firmen folgen auf Platz 2 mit 32 Prozent und südafrikanische mit 15 Prozent. 2 Prozent des Portfolios sind in den USA investiert, ein Prozent in Großbritannien, der Rest ist Cash. Damit fühle ich mich gut aufgestellt für 2005.

INFO: Die PEH Wertpapier AG (WKN 620 140) ist aus der 1981 gegründeten PEH Wertpapier Research GmbH, Oberursel, hervorgegangen und seit 1999 am Geregelten Markt Berlin notiert. Die PEH bietet neben der Betreuung institutioneller Anleger auch fondsbasierte Vermögensverwaltungskonzepte an und legt zudem eigene Investmentfonds auf. PEH steht für die Initialen des Firmengründers Peter Edgar Huber. (Quelle: DER FONDS)
http://de.biz.yahoo.com/050104/337/4d08l.html

extrel
Vielen Dank für die sehr gute und ausserordentlich lange Übersetzung des äusserst interessanten Artikels!!! Ich denke das hat Dich richtig Zeit gekostet.

Leider geht Deine Arbeit in den anderen unreflektierten Postings die mit höchster Wahrscheinlichkeit nicht mal die Verfasser selbst lesen unter.

Schiebs doch noch in einen eigenen Thread, damit Deine Arbeit nicht so einfach unter geht?

Vielleicht wäre dann damit auch ein neuer Thread gestartet in dem nicht jedes Thema sich sofort wieder verliert.

Smartie

January 4 – Gold $428 down 60 cents – Silver $6.41 down 6 cents

Gold Fundamentals More Bullish Than Ever

When I learn something new-and it happens every day-I feel a little more at home in this universe, a little more comfortable in the nest. ..Bill Moyers

GO GATA!!!

We may have had a very significant day as far as gold is concerned. As expected, gold followed through on the downside, dropping to $423.60 before rebounding. With gold blowing through key support between $430 and $433 yesterday, long-term gold longs continue to give up the ship. However, the physical market remains on fire and supported the market on the break. The gold fundamentals are more bullish than ever.

Notables:

*Goldman Sachs was a major buyer today, covering short positions.

*They followed a substantial GLD buy yesterday:

Hi Bill:
Looks like the 15 tonnes sold on Dec 7th have now been covered at a huge profit of $20/oz or about $10 million total. Not a bad Xmas present for someone well connected. Below is comment from Russ Winter, Cheers from
Auckland Ed

Russ Winter wrote:
Actually I think the gold market got today exactly what I was hoping for and looking for, namely a large knee jerk hedge fund liquidation. And look who stepped up to take the real physical gold, the GLD ETF adding a whopping 14.3 tonnes today.
http://streettracksgoldshares.com/us/value/gb_value_usa.php

This is very bullish in my book even if it does sell off as low as the 200 MA.

***

Make what you wish of The Gold Cartel’s Goldman Sachs and GLD buying at the same time after selling at the same time.

*The gold open interest only fell 7743 contracts to 310,992. The Comex floor was looking for 20,000 contracts and thought the number could go as high as 30,000 contracts. This would’ve indicated a "washout" to them.

We probably got a good deal of the rest of that washout today. However, more important from my standpoint is yesterday’s number probably included a sizeable number of NEW spec SHORTS. Today most likely brought in more too. This should show up in the next COT numbers. With the cash market so strong and a number of specs going short, gold could really take off by the end of next week.

Late this afternoon our Comex floor source called and felt the liquidation is just about over and gold should move back up shortly.

*This recent bullion bashing by The Gold Cartel has most gold investors completely demoralized (see example below).

*There is more talk of $400 gold than $450 gold these days.

What is so remarkable is how there is so little talk out there regarding the gold fundamentals. As Andrew Hepburn mentioned at the New Orleans Investment Conference, most of the gold market commentary outside of the GATA camp amounts to a bunch of "drivel." Besides inane chatter why gold moves up and down on a daily basis, most of the commentary centers around cycles, technicals, gold as it relates to the dollar, etc. That is fine and dandy and much of it often very useful. However, when there is no understanding of the basics of what the gold market is really all about, they won’t add up to bupkes as far as realizing what is coming and why as far as the price is concerned.

Thank goodness for John Brimelow and thank goodness for the GATA camp. Without knowing the real gold story; the true nature of the demand for gold; the size of the bullion bank short positions; the yearly supply/demand deficits; and how The Gold Cartel has suppressed the price many hundreds of dollars per ounce below its proper equilibrium price level, I think I would have run for the hills too as far as gold is concerned. Fortunately we do know.

At the same time, gold mine supply is dropping at the very time the central banks are reaching to the bottom of their bins for available gold supply required to suppress the price. Meanwhile, demand for gold is soaring around the world. With Iraq a building catastrophe and the US financial house in continued disarray, we have the recipe for a gold price explosion, not a collapse.

Gold should make a U-turn above $433 by the middle of next week, or sooner.

The silver open interest fell 185 contracts to 100,401.

I am trying to make some headway regarding understanding silver. The way it has traded the past year vis-à-vis the information passed my way has made little sense. The same with the market action. Silver runs up to $8 on supposedly very bullish fundamentals and then collapses for no apparent reason.

Silver weekly
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/W

Worse, from my standpoint, it always seems to tank after I receive the most bullish input. The well advertised yearly supply/demand deficit never seems to matter much, nor the input I receive. Many in our camp expect the very bullish fundamentals to take hold, myself included. Yet, we have felt that way for some time.

In mid-December we heard how tight the supply was in Europe. Just the other day we heard how it was difficult to fill a $10 million order for the Saudis in Europe. Then, the silver price falls apart. My query to our STALKER source is why don’t these people take delivery of silver on Comex and ship it to Europe? It makes no sense to say you can’t locate silver and then have the price collapse as if the sellers of the stuff can’t give it away. The European silver people can buy all the silver they want on the Comex and ship it overseas. Perhaps I will have something coherent for you on this soon.

On another front the news regarding China and silver is extremely exciting. Voila:

Hi Bill
After reading your remark some days ago about checking with your sources about silver, I called my friend. He says that their information is right and China did secure 75% of world production.

He added that their chief investment officer, which he considers to be a very wise man who has a high record of success, forecast for the next 3 years, stagflation with the dollar losing 30% to 50% more and the interest rate at 10%. He is recommending buying commodities, all of them, including precious metals.

The silver fall is very puzzling both to me and my friend, who keeps buying silver for himself. My guess is (and that is only a guess) that as usual we are seeing an engineered sell off so that the big forces can cover their shorts. We saw it many times and the pattern is quite clear.

Other than that, I’m clueless.

Thanks for all the work

***

This Café source is very reliable and he is confirming what we learned last spring – that China has tied up 75% of the 2005 silver production through various derivatives maneuvers, ext. These "maneuvers" will assure them they will receive their supply.

Assuming this information is as solid as I believe, there is NO WAY silver will not explode as 2005 progresses…the market being as tight as it is. Now whatever supply is still left has been scooped up by the Chinese.

Silver should not move up gradually either. Once this latest liquidation phase is over, following the recent sell-off debacle, silver should begin to move back up very quickly and shoot for $10 by this spring. Silver is a volcano ready to explode.

We will keep our eye on the Comex silver stocks as a key the world silver market is going to dry up completely from a supply standpoint. If those stocks go below 100 million ounces, it ought to be the tip-off a major silver squeeze is on the way.

Houston’s Dan Norcini smells what I do re what has transpired in gold and silver the past two days.

Hi Bill:
Did you catch the Open interest release this morning?

Silver showed very little reduction in yesterday's massive sell off indicating a HUGE amount of new shorts were put on in addition to the general liquidation. Gold showed a fair amount of liquidation but nothing like what I was expecting. I was looking for something in the range of 15,000+. Instead we got only around 8,000 or so. Same story there - apparently lots of fresh shorts were put on yesterday as well as long liquidation.
Dan

Gold and silver are both set up to move sharply higher in the weeks ahead.

The John Brimelow Report

Physical demand has gone crazy" - Mitsui

Tuesday, Jan 4, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.86, PM $9.32, with world gold at $429.30 and $426.50. Very high; suggestive of heavy Indian demand.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange prices imply premiums to world gold of $3.59 to $4.00, levels last seen in the late April/ early May downswing last year.

Mitsui-London remarks today

"Physical demand has gone crazy, and now everyone is looking for supplies for India, Turkey and the Mid East."

The second attachment is a bar chart of Turkish imports, courtesy Refco Research. While the magnitude of the off take acceleration is obvious, what is actually more impressive is the contrast with previous November/December periods. Usually this is a very weak phase of the year.

Japan re opened for a half day to find world gold down over $15 from the close on December 28th. Naturally this led to limit down moves. All contracts closed down the 40 yen limit, although the equivalent of 7,211 Comex lots did trade, with open interest up 1,335 Comex equivalent. Some anticipate Japanese buying.

NY yesterday traded a very heavy 93,540 lots, with open interest slipping 7,743 contracts (another 24 tonnes.) UBS judiciously remarks:

"Since last Tuesday…Comex open interest indicates that at least 1.23moz of long liquidation took place on Wednesday and Thursday; Friday’s price action implies more speculative selling …The net long gold position probably stands at about 15-16 million ounces, the smallest long position since the end of October."

Gold since Christmas has twice come in for very heavy bouts of selling in New York (today is possibly a third, with an estimated 71,000 contracts trading). This has had the effect of adversely altering the relationships the metal has been recently showing with older parameters. HSBC says

"it is difficult to explain the recent fall in gold prices from over USD450/oz to under USD430/oz simply by reference to currency moves alone…based on an exchange rate of 1.35 against the euro, and on the trading relationship which has been in place since August 2003, the gold price should be around USD445/oz."

Gold’s fall preceded and exceeded the fall in the Euro, and preceded, at least, the punishment base metals have taken today. Probably these developments are related. The fact remains premiums and anecdotes in the physical market resemble serious lows, not highs.

The noted bear points out that the standard measures of public involvement in gold were down year-on year, yet gold was up. He asserts this is puzzling, yet the explanation is obvious: strong off take by the consuming countries. He does not mention Turkey, about which in fact Mitsui is very well informed by direct involvement.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW flopped 99 to 10,671, while the DOG barked its way down 44 to 2108.

The March DOG chart is looking bowwowish again:
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/NA/X

Been hard for me to understand why the DOW and DOG have done what they have considering what looms on the horizon. The good news is behind the market, not ahead. Trading in the weeks ahead could be very nasty on the downside.

The dollar rose 1.29 to 82.79. The euro lost 2.08 to 132.87, while the pound gave up two points to 187.16.

US economic news:

10:00 Nov. Factory Orders reported 1.2% vs. consensus 1%
Prior reading revised to 0.9% from 0.5%.
* * * * *

The big news of the day was the release of contents of the December FOMC minutes:

14:01 FOMC minutes reveal that committee still saw rates as too low to keep inflation stable
The minutes from the 12/14 meeting also noted "potentially excessive risk-taking" in markets.
* * * * *

14:04 Follow-up: FOMC minutes indicate the policy makers still believed rates were too low
The conclusion of the minutes from the 12/14 meeting state that "even with this action, the current level of the real funds rate target remained below the level it most likely would need to reach to keep inflation stable and output at its potential".
* * * * *

4:13 Follow-up x2: FOMC notes potentially excessive risk-taking in financial, housing mkts
The minutes show that "some participants" were concerned that "the prolonged period of policy accommodation had generated a significant degree of liquidity that might be contributing to signs of potentially excessive risk-taking in financial markets evidenced by quite narrow credit spreads, a pickup in initial public offerings, an upturn inmergers and acquisition activity, and anecdotal reports that speculative demands were becoming apparent in the markets for single-family homes and condominiums".
* * * * *

Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury notes fell after minutes from the Federal Reserve's Dec. 14 meeting showed policy makers were more concerned about faster inflation.

The benchmark two-year note dropped the most in two months as the Fed concluded that interest rates were still below a level needed ``to keep inflation stable'' and that price increases were likely to become a risk to stable growth. Inflation erodes the value of a bond's fixed-payments. – END-

From the King Report late last evening:

The NY Post’s Tim Arango: "Executives at United States companies sold stock last year at levels not seen since the bursting of the Internet bubble in 2000. Executive stock sales — known as insider sales — rose 20 percent in 2004 through Dec. 24, while purchases by insiders grew 13 percent to $2.11 billion, according to Washington Service, a company that tracks such transactions." http://www.nypost.com/business/37541.htm

Greenspan and Bush bet that by funneling billions of dollars into corporations via quick fix remedies the economy would rebound when corporations spent their orchestrated riches on capex and new jobs. That wish upon crony capitalism is an abject failure. Also, Easy Al thought that he could engineer another covert bailout like his carry trade for the Money Center Banks in 1991-1992. This funneled prudent peoples’ saving into banks and hedgies that leveraged up. Once again the average guy was sacrificed.

The WSJ’s survey of 56 economists has a consensus GDP of about +3.6% for 2005. When have you ever seen or heard main stream economists, especially on The Street, forecast a recession?

The Washington Post: "The Bush administration has signaled that it will propose changing the formula that sets initial Social Security benefit levels, cutting promised benefits by nearly a third in the coming decades, according to several Republicans close to the White House." http://www.washingtonpost.com/…26-2005Jan3.html?nav=rss_

-END-

Clift Whiteman has a question for us:

3) Finally, it would help me if not others if you explained some evening how the COMEX works. For the life of me I can't figure out what your and Brimelow's comments on "open positions" really mean. In other words, I don't understand the moves that bulls and bears make which effect the open contract positions. It's like CNBC running the commodities prices every 15 minutes using symbols that I can find nowhere and then not even showing changes over the previous day's close. They mean something only to a tiny handful of viewers in my opinion.

In closing, you know I have been a supporter for several years and you are the best. You work so hard to dig out everything that might be of interest and keep us betting on $1000/oz gold in the not too distant future. Keep it going and good luck!

***

We all will win the day Clift. Just a matter of time.
Regarding open interest, it is really very simple. For every buyer on the Comex, there is a seller. These buyers and sellers are categorized by the CFTC and the brokerage houses into small specs, large specs and commercials. The nomenclature of each is self-explanatory. As a total, they make up the Open Interest. Market watchers watch the daily changes and make interpretations about what the changes mean. This is where it gets complicated as what seems right to the goose, might appear differently to the gander. To go into detail on that subject would take an entire MIDAS.

One simple analysis:

A market starts to rise and speculators pile in to take advantage of the price rise. They keep buying and the open interest shoots way up. The market gets too frothy (too many of them) and the market corrects lower. The specs then liquidate and the open interest falls. If it falls low enough, some observers will suggest the market is washed out.

Hope that helps.

We always receive solid input from this veteran GATA supporter:

Bill,
Manipulation exists when all logic is defied. Yesterday and today meet that criteria. Tsunamis, war, credit crisis, Fannie crisis, pension crisis, dollar crisis and a raft more crisis' - no matter. In addition to the blatant $6 upside cap/ limitless downside rule another rule is gold never gets a follow through rally day while there is always a follow through decline. Yesterdays WSJ year end review section only gave gold and the metals a few paragraphs on page R-11. The summary was basically "you missed the gold rally, it's too late, might as well stay away". If the WSJ were your broker you would fire them for incompetence. Banking and the media are powerful allies. On a new year when the world's stability (literally) gets shakier there are 2 or 3 BB's at the Comex with their finger on the short sell cannon button defying logic. Millions of people worldwide know otherwise. Logic doesn't like being defied for very long. Logic will prevail. It is illogical to think the more FRN's you print, the more valuable they become. In the meantime we sit through yet another day of criminal endeavor.
Best for the new year,
James McShirley