Beiträge von Schwabenpfeil

However, a number of traders were looking for some kind of dollar supportive commentary. They got zip. Hard to see the dollar mounting any sort of sustained rally in the weeks ahead, as the fundamental news re the dollar deteriorates. Once again we see signs the US budget deficit will worsen, not improve as urged by foreign countries that hold dollars as reserves:

Pentagon Emergency: Additional $80 Billion For Iraq, Afghanistan
Tue Dec 14 2004 10:23:54 ET

Pentagon officials said they will ask the Bush administration for an additional $80 billion in emergency funding to help pay costs of the military presence in Iraq and Afghanistan, slightly higher than the $70 billion to $75 billion many on Capitol Hill had expected.

The WALL STREET JOURNAL reports Tuesday: "Senior Pentagon officials met to review and finalize the new budget request before sending it to the White House this week.

"The final White House request, which will be submitted to Congress early next year, would probably come in between $75 billion and $80 billion, pushing the total military costs, since the Iraq war began, to well over $230 billion. 'The [Defense Department] request is on the higher side of our expectations,' said an official involved in the process. 'We are still sorting through it to figure out what the final number will be.'" Another "US official said the total Pentagon request would likely be in the $80 billion to $89 billion range."

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As usual these days, no surprises from the Fed announcement:

Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve policy makers raised the benchmark U.S. interest rate a quarter point to 2.25 percent and restated a plan to carry out further increases at a ``measured'' pace.
``The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative,'' the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement released after the meeting in Washington. ``With underlying inflation expected to be relatively low, the committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured.''..

-END-

A couple of key points on the trade number:

*The spin on CNBC was the huge number was much higher than expected due to the $50+ oil prices of previous months finally showing up and this will be mitigated in the months to come because of the sharp drop in the oil price. True, about the drop, however, whether oil will remain around $40 for very long is dubious. Just as likely to go back up next year.

*A more ominous note was the trade gap with China. It is going up, not down, and is not falling because of their currency peg to the dollar. Thus, the drop in the dollar is having no affect, with the trade gap with the Chinese actually worsening. This does not bode well for the dollar down the road.

08:55 Redbook chain store sales index (0.8%) through 12/11 week vs November
Unchanged from the prior (0.8%) reading through the 12/4 week.
* * * * *

09:16 Nov. Ind. Production reported 0.3% vs. consensus 0.2%; Cap. Utilization 77.6% vs. consensus 77.8%
Prior revised to 0.6% from 0.7%, and 77.5% from 77.7%, respectively.

US trade gap swells more than expected in October

WASHINGTON, Dec 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit widened nearly 9 percent in October to a record $55.5 billion as sky-high oil prices helped propel imports into uncharted territory, the government said on Tuesday.

October's unexpectedly large shortfall pushed the deficit tally for the first ten months of the year to $500.5 billion, surpassing the record of $496.5 billion for all of 2003.

Despite a continued slide in the value of the dollar, the trade gap grew by 8.9 percent in October, from a revised $50.9 billion in September. The shortfall was much larger than a mid-point estimate of $53.0 billion from Wall Street analysts surveyed by Reuters.

Imports jumped to a record $153.5 billion in October, fueled by record prices for imported oil which averaged $41.79 per barrel, according to the Commerce Department.

The United States imported a record $9.5 billion worth of oil and other goods from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The trade gap with OPEC also set a record at $7.2 billion.

The U.S. trade gap with China - politically sensitive because U.S. exporters blame an artificially low yuan currency for keeping the China's goods unfairly cheap -- also hit a record $16.8 billion, as imports from the Asian giant leapt to a record $19.7 billion.

-END-

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The dollar rose .21 to 82.44 and could not take out resistance at 82.50. The euro lost .20 to 133.11, while the pound rose .12 to 191.75.

The DEC bond rose ½ a point to 114 8/32.

The DOW gained 39 to 10,676, while the DOG leaped 11 to 2160.

By the action of the US stock and bond markets, you would think all is rosy out there in US financial market land. Markets do what they do. Fighting city hall has been a losing proposition as of late. It won’t be next year.

US economic news:

08:30 Oct. Trade deficit reported $55.5B vs. consensus $53B
Prior reading revised to $50.9B from $51.6B prior.

The John Brimelow Report

Happy Indians vs. NY (shorts?)

Tuesday, December 14, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.67, PM $8.62, with world gold at $438.55 and $438.65. High: very ample for legal imports. Reuters carries a specimen of a fairly rare story: India bullion dealers exulting over business:

"NEW DELHI, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Gold demand in India, the world's largest importer, has been boosted by soft global prices and fresh gains made by the rupee…traders said on Tuesday. "It is the best buying opportunity," said Ashok Chokshi, a leading trader from Ahmedabad's bullion trading hub of Manikchowk Dealers in Bombay, India's financial capital, said 600 to 700 kg of gold was being sold every day in the city, compared with 400 to 500 kg at the beginning of December. "Vacation demand is boosting sales and if prices remain at the current levels we hope to do good business," Suresh Hundia, an official of Bombay Bullion Association, told Reuters Sales in the western city of Ahmedabad, which supplies gold to the adjoining states of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, have doubled to around 300 kg daily from a week ago, traders said."

This type of report is usually a signal of a world gold price low.

Indian buying power looks like being further accentuated by a further rise in the rupee. The Reserve Bank apparently intervened to block a further rise today, but expectations are widespread that it will permit more gains shortly.

TOCOM is not interested. Volume fell 19% to equal only 15,224 Comex lots; open interest edged up the equivalent of 293 NY contacts; World gold was 10c above NY at the close, at $438.50, while the active contract ended up 12 yen. (Yesterday NY traded 51,444 contracts: open interest edged up by 177 lots.)

Shanghai, curiously, continues to show rather high ($1.60 - $1.80) premiums to world gold.

Flat open interest despite a $5 rise in Feb gold yesterday supports the view expressed by Refco Research after the close:

"The Commitment of traders….sizeable increase in noncommercial shorts helps explain the large drop into open interest seen recently notwithstanding February gold’s staunch defense of 435—a good deal of short covering is going on."

(No Dealer commentator, of course, ever reports these positions being established.) Others, however, clearly sense selling, possibly shorting, interest is still around. Mitsui-London commented this morning:

"Gold saw very good two way interest through Comex and Asian hours with what really seemed to be specs positions changing hands. 430-432 support remains intact and we look for choppy conditions to prevail. We expect range trading to continue with an eventual and more rigorous test of this support."

This would appear to reflect conventional trading wisdom in NY Mark Hulbert reports on CBSMarketWatch today that his Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, which is weighted to bullion timers, has dropped a huge 52 points in the last few days to stand at 19.6%. And Dennis Gartman is still cheering on the Bears.

All of this will be making the Fathers of Indian brides, vintage ’04, very happy indeed.

JB

I can’t ever recall a bullish consensus number falling so fast and so far. This is on top of all the bearishness exhibited at the NO Investment Conference.

We now have two extremes. The cash gold market is roaring, yet the speculators and gold share investors are bearish/morose. This has to be resolved in the near future. My bet is that we are set up for a gold/share price explosion as we head into January and beyond. The substantial physical buyers around the world in India, China, Arab countries, etc., don’t give a hoot what western stock investors think.

What strikes (but not surprise) me is how no one out there is dealing with the most important aspect of the market and that is the price has been artificially and surreptitiously suppressed for 7 to 10 years via central bank gold supply. The Gold Cartel has used up 1500 tonnes, or so, per annum of this gold to foster their scheme. This supply is finally beginning to dry up just as mine supply is waning and demand for gold is surging. Next year, this continuing convergence is going to send gold SHARPLY higher.

Here is the shocker of the day:

The silver lining in gold's fall
By Mark Hulbert, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Dec. 14, 2004

ANNANDALE, Va. (CBS.MW) -- Painful as it otherwise was for the gold bugs, last week's sharp drop in gold and gold mining shares afforded contrarians a wonderful opportunity to gauge advisory sentiment in the gold market….

And that is good news for the gold market, according to the contrarians.

Consider the latest readings from the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), which represents the average exposure to the gold market among a subset of short-term gold timing newsletters. The HGNSI has fallen a total of 52 percentage points in recent sessions, and now stands at 19.6 percent.

That's a huge drop in sentiment for such a short period. It is not what would have happened if gold bullion's recent high above $450 per ounce represented the top of this bull market, and sentiment adhered to the normal pattern.

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/new…4%7D&dist=rss&siteid=mktw

-END-

Rumor has it Morgan Stanley is looking for $7.50 silver.

The gold open interest rose a surprising 177 contracts to 317,079. This could be very bullish, as we know the trade was huge buyers yesterday. This confirms the notion the specs were going short, as well as liquidating long positions. As previously mentioned, this should show up in the COT numbers on Friday afternoon.

The funds were early sellers in silver with Republic Bank a heavy buyer. The silver open interest fell 209 contracts to 102,912.

The 200-day gold moving average for the FEB contract is $408.75, for silver $6.74 – so we have silver falling right under it, while it is a mile away for gold. The 50-day gold moving average for FEB is $435.30.

December 14 – Gold $435.40 down $3.10 – Silver $6.69 down 9 cents

Stunning Drop In Gold Bullish Sentiment Numbers

Responsibility does not only lie with the leaders of our countries or with those who have been appointed or elected to do a particular job. It lies with each of us individually. Peace, for example, starts within each one of us. When we have inner peace, we can be at peace with those around us....Dalai Lama

GO GATA!

Pretty typical trading day for gold. Yesterday, The Gold Cartel capped bullion at $440, knocking it down a buck late going into the close. The trade, seeing the obvious lid, was not about to pay up during this Comex session. Specs, wanting to liquidate longs or go short, jumped all over the high $430’s level to sell. The trade, after aggressively buying yesterday, was content to sit back and buy dips whenever gold set sights on the $435+ level. Rarely does gold (same with silver) ever shoot right back up after a significant spec liquidation and with many of the moving average trading systems having turned negative.

The trading was very quiet with Morgan Stanley on the buy side in both gold and silver. An early, brief raid on gold in the OTC market took gold down right off the bat. when the dollar strengthened further, renewed selling waves hit the trading pits.

Three important points are here:

1. In the worst case - metals can remain weak till 18 December but from current level I don't see much down side.

2. What I have been predicting on disconnection of gold and all major currencies will going to happen in the next two weeks.

3. Silver will remain most talkative issue for the next two years in wall-street, China, Chicago Board, Japan, India to Australia. May some time gold will feel jealous with popularity of silver.

I am not concern at all on rate hike quarter, half or nil. Gold will move ahead with its own power. Some says that Greenspan try to speak Nostradamus languages. Nostradamus was knowing every thing but unfortunately Greenspan don't know any thing.

Please trade carefully, don't put all your bet at same time and in big way.

Thanks & GOD Bless

Mahendra

http://www.mahendraprophecy.com

GRAINS

All grains look quite promising as from 15 December. One must start adding CORN to his portfolio. Indeed, corn is fast becoming my favourite for long term investment. Prospects for soybean and wheat also look bright.

I am still trying to understand my alert of 14 October because its looks as though my vision, astrology or prophecy were trying to say some thing and I just put it down too quickly on that day. As I try to unravel this, let me just say that A LOT IS HIDDEN IN THERE FOR SILVER. Options and future trade are very risky but try to accumulate small quantity at level.

After last week down ward trend, many of my member's have sent me expert's view on the future trend of metals. I reviewed them and they all are taking about "rise of metal is over", "get out from metals", "strong dollar is starting" and few those who recommended gold to sell around $415 now they coming ahead and saying "see this what we said and warned you". I am young boy and don't have that great experience of market but I fee that 99% metal experts and market advisor's are immature because they never try to see long term trend. They just jump or change their view time to time according to current trend (so sad because people start following them and they miss best opportunity). I will let you know when to get out 100% from metals but I don't see this happening in near future.

STOCK MARKET

There is no new prediction concerning the market. All major world indices will going to remain down for next two to four years.

OIL

I feel proud about astrology because oil is 100% in the grip of nature. It was a great call to buy at $32 when I told everybody to hold up to $55 - $60. In the last week of OCT I recommended selling when it was $53 and soon again, I shall recommend that you buy. Wait for the price to reach $38 or it will rise strongly on Tuesday. GAS (natural) looks very interesting and one can therefore buy at $6.80 and sell at a big gain on Friday.

COFFEE

This favourite is doing quite well and 100 percent in the grip of nature and I can see it going up to $124 by the end of the year. During this week, it will finally cross and trade above the $100 mark.

COTTON

Cotton is very near its turn around and one can therefore start adding it to his portfolio.

SILVER

I have talked a lot about silver and it is now time to justify it. As I discern it, the rise of silver should commence from Monday and cross $7 before the close of New York trading on the same day. This week’s low could be $6.48 and on the high side, it could go up to $7.22 to $7.42. During this week, silver stocks will demonstrate the best performance. By end of the year it should trade above $8.00. According to calculations of the planetary combinations, CDE looks good.

PALLADIUM

My date is finally falling due during this week and I see Palladium prices rising more than 9% during the week. My favourite stocks are PAL and SWC.

COPPER

Please don't short copper. Buy and keep it for the next 10 days as it may yield a profit of more than 5%.

PLATINUM

You should not block money during this week in platinum. Instead, you can put that money in copper, silver, gold or Palladium. Platinum stocks will perform extremely well but long term investor's can hold.

CURRENCIES

Avoid trading in currencies, though I know that the dollar will fall quite fast towards a new low but as I indicated last week, a time is soon coming when the dollar will gain for a short period. You can buy metals against the US Dollar. The Euro, Pound, Yen and Swiss Franc could strongly gain on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday but don't take too much risk in currencies because they are now out from grip of the nature.

I do not recommend trading in currencies but those who want can still do it on condition that they don’t keep position for a long period; they could sell a day after buying.

Here are this week’s predictions from 13 December to 17 December

GOLD

Prices of gold have come down to $437, and I can’t say that I am surprised since it was not unexpected. Everybody looks at this stage with grave concern and trepidation. Uncertainty is rife all over as to the best thing to do, whether to hold, to buy or to sell. This is because many experts are giving very bleak signals at this stage. When gold was nicely moving up, talk abounded of its going towards $500 or even more. But just see what a three day downtrend has done- people have suddenly changed their minds completely! It makes me very sad that metal investors don't have faith in what they are doing. In this case, they should not be investing gold at all! One should never expect something to be upbeat and on the rise everyday. One should just flow along with the wave of nature.

I personally have great faith in nature and have always ignored the crowd and the most experts. That is why I am predicting that in the next three weeks, gold will go towards $478 to $492. I am neither saying ‘if’, nor do I have any "buts’ in regard to this. I am very clear on what I am saying and my advice is - GO AHEAD AND BUY GOLD AT $433. Even as I sit here, am ready and more than willing to tackle any challenge to the contrary.

This week’s low for gold could be $431.40 while on the high side it could reach $452. Just flow along and trade with the wave of mahendraprophecy.com because now the currency fear is completely gone from my mind. The performance of the US dollar and the EURO will be immaterial to the performance of gold. Their gain or fall will have no bearing or impact onto gold BECAUSE GOLD WILL MOVE UP ON ITS OWN POWER.

Last week, nobody would have thought that the metal stocks would perform well. Against all odds, this is exactly what happened. Silver remained weak while silver stocks did well. Many of my followers have bought metal stocks in the last 5 days on my recommendation. I still recommend that one buys metal stocks before they start going up too much.

NOTE - It will be very interesting to watch my astrological newsletter verses all technical people and expert of this market because most of them are very uncertain on gold and silver move from here, hardly anybody is recommending to buy metal and metal stocks except me at this level.

A Café member appropriately queried me last week about Mahendra’s latest calls, wondering if I only put out his hits and not his misses. My response was that I had too much on my plate last week, however, would contact my seer friend to address a valid point. Didn’t have to. Mahendra called me last night and offered to address the issue himself by allowing me to put up his commentary which he sent out before calling me.

Dear Members,

The movement of silver prices in the last week have significantly shaken up silver investors. Indeed, EVEN I never thought that silver would plummet the way it did. I had however felt the onset of some kind of negativity in metals and that is why I recommended partly booking profits in metals. But frankly, I must admit that I never saw this kind of downward trend in silver.

Today I would like to share with you an important and personal issue concerning silver. On the 14th of October I sent an ‘alert news’ to all my members in which I mentioned a downward trend in silver for three days in the month of December. I also said that it would then bounce back on the fourth day and slowly inch towards attaining historic high prices in the couple of years.

"I would like to reiterate that this is what I saw and it is not just a simple prediction or alert. Since Thursday, I have dedicated all my effort and energy to analysing the 14th October alert news. Indeed, I hardly slept on Thursday and Friday because the silver prediction was so much in my mind and I was trying to recollect my memory of 14th October. I know that this prediction will come to pass and when that happens, many of my members are going to make a fortune. Meanwhile, I would like to receive your views and opinions concerning the 14th October alert because I am still not able to analyse it 100 percent, why I said that down and up move. If this week silver bounce back strongly than it's future move will be very clear, so may be we can wait and see this week movement of silver and I am sure which will unfold the future hidden move of SILVER."

Some of you will be surprised that I have started this week’s newsletter with silver as I normally begin with gold. However, I feel that the coming 24 months will be for silver and the world investor community will be astonished at the strong performance of silver prices. If today you were to ask me why it will go up or who will take it up, I wouldn’t know the answer. However, I am sure of one thing: silver is going to attain historic highs.

You should ensure that you trade cautiously, careful not to be too greedy to buy a large quantity as you may be hurt if prices suddenly drop. I want you to remain in the silver market for at least the next 24 months.

We shall soon talk more about this.

Once again the gold shares continue their sleepy ways. The XAU rose a modest 1.48 to 99.80, while the HUI limped to a 3.82 gain to 217.38. It must clear 220 to look sound technically.

I spent my Sunday doing a MIDAS because with so much negativity out there, I felt it important to present the big picture to the Café membership and what I believe will happen gold price-wise and why.

Today’s move up was very gratifying because of the kind of buying which showed up and tends to confirm my commentary yesterday. It was mainly cash folks, others in the trade and some of the cabal on the buy side. It is not normal to see them pay up like this during a spec liquidation, yet they did. If I’m right, it’s because The Gold Cartel knows they are closer and closer to hitting the wall. They are running out of physical to keep the gold price from rising and they are competing with ferocious cash buyers. They have a window here to buy from the specs, a window which will close if gold continues to move up.

The likely surprise in the weeks/months to come is how high the price of gold and silver will run to.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Feedback and input from Derek Van Artsdalen in San Antonio:

Hi Bill,
As some suspected, the dollar was unable to hold above the critical .8250 level today. It traded as high as .8284 but last I checked it was .822, down half a point on the day. Gold and silver, much to the surprise of just about all the gold bugs, closed strongly higher. Looks like John Mackenzie's unpopular prediction of an imminent, big-time rise in the metals may not be so far-fetched after all. I had a long talk with him on the phone this morning, and I can tell you that the guy is no nutcase.

Aside from you and John, there aren't many—even among the gold bug crowd—who are very optimistic for the near-term.

Maybe that's a good sign. The evidence: gold climbed more than 1% this afternoon and silver gained 1.5%. While so many pundits continue talking about a coming deflation, nearly all the items on the CRB index were up today, including copper, crude oil, natural gas, unleaded gas, sugar, cotton, orange juice, lumber, wheat, corn and soybeans.

Other than the price of 50-yard line seats in Texas Stadium, I'm not sure exactly what these guys are thinking is deflating...
Derek

Hi Bill,
I have attached a dowload link below for yourself & Midas readers;

The link should be saved to your hard drive 1st then viewed because it is quite a lengthy download, a good opportunity to make yourself a cup of coffee.

http://www.anglofareast.com/downloads/trailer.mpg

It's a 15min. cut of the 2hr. award-winning documentary called "Millennium – Money".

Our company had taken out the first place Gold Awards at the International

Film & Video Festival Awards in Chicago 1999. The documentary is even more relevent today than it was then. With this video documentary we won, and we won based upon Morality in Economics. The documentary exposes a truth very few people in our communities understand let alone know anything about and I believe could be quite timely before Christmas! For myself it has been one of personal conviction and has given me a

respectful fear for the things of God(Just weights & Measures). In saying so though I must admit only our own consciences can convict us to respond to a righteous standard of truth.

Myself and the Anglo team thank you for your efforts throughout the past year and wish you a Merry Christmas and prosperous New year.

Yours Sincerely,
Simon Heapes

Mr. Gartman is at it again in his Letter this morning:

Turning to gold and the conspiracy theories that surrounded the sale of 15 tonnes of gold from the GLD ETF mid-week last week, which GATA and others are calling evidence of the manipulation they see taking place everywhere in the gold market over the past several years, we note thecomments by one of our readers, a ranking officer in a gold mining company in Canada's far west. Our friend wrote,

The beauty of conspiracy theories of course is that those who believe in them are in a win win situation. The less evidence there is, the better the plotters are at covering their tracks. Gold goes up, the conspirators are failing to keep the lid on gold; gold goes down, GATA must be right about how powerful are the forces of evil lined up against the yellow metal. If only my life were that black and white…

We simply could not agree more. The Conspiratorialists have it their way on both sides of the market all the while, and then complain in both directions. Gold plunged last week because the buyers had become too aggressively over-extended in their positions, and the dollar began to strengthen. Further, crude oil weakened materially too. Gold had nowhere to go but down, and although the Conspiratorialists will see this as evidence of manipulation and coercion, we see it as the very normal ebb and flow of speculative capital from one market to another.

-END-

What is the matter with people like this? They cover our subject matter as if they have the education of a 4th grader. I would love to see the simplistic Gartman review what Reg Howe produced last week. I don’t think he has the brains to understand Reg much less converse on the subject. What a bore these people are who resort to banal categorizing of GATA and the GATA ARMY with terms like Conspiratorialists. We have the evidence and proof to back up our claims. The Gartmans have nothing but name-calling and silly innuendos.