Goldnachfrage steigt stetig an!
Gold to the moon II. ?
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LONDON (Mineweb.com) --The World Gold Council has released its second-quarter (and therefore also the first-half) figures for gold demand. The numbers, independently compiled for WGC by GFMS Ltd., show a 21% increase in tonnage terms and a 29% increase in dollar terms over the first half of 2004.
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And demand was strong enough to absorb a 14% increase in total supply easily despite a 9% increase in the gold price to a pm fixing average of $417.39; the picture is of a vibrant market indeed.
To put some numbers behind this; the total for the quarter was 949 tonnes, of which jewellery was 728 tonnes. Identifiable investment reached 110 tonnes. Industrial and dental demand rose by 40% to 111 tonnes. Supplies from mine, scrap and the official sector amounted to 895 tonnes during the quarter.
The second quarter of 2005 was the sixth consecutive quarter of positive year-on-year growth and, probably more significantly, the third consecutive quarter of double digit growth. Seen in their most positive light, the figures show that the twelve months to end-June this year registered record expenditure on jewellery in US dollar terms, at $38 billion, and beating the previous high of 1997.
The outlook suggests that while many factors supporting the upward demand trend remain in place, the growth in the first half of this year has been so strong that it is possible that the pace will be moderated in the second half. What is particularly encouraging, though, is that reports from the regions where consumers are normally deterred by price volatility [Indian sub-Continent, Middle and Far East] have not yet been greatly deterred by the rise in price that started in late July.
Jewellery offtake in the first half of the year was up on the first half of 2004 by 17% in tonnage terms and 24% in dollar terms, largely due to a favourable economic backdrop in key markets, continued consumer confidence in higher gold prices and good results from effective promotional activity dating back to 2003. In China the substitution from platinum into white gold has helped, as it has to a degree in Europe and the US, largely as a result of high platinum prices although this is not a new development.
In terms of growth rates, investment is the star of the show, with tonnage up by 20% in the second quarter and by 66% for the first half as a whole. At the retail level, net investment was up by 36% in tonnage terms and 45% in dollar terms. Most retail investment categories showed strong growth, with double-digit advances for bar hoarding and the purchases of medal and individual coins. This was driven particularly by India, with support from Turkey and Vietnam.
The Exchange Traded Funds paused for breath during Q2, with total gold invested in the products declining very slightly as redemptions in the less liquid funds marginally outstripped the new creations in StreetTRACKS, the market leader. However, an additional 19 tonnes of new creations in Street Tracks Gold shares during July and August has already more than compensated for the overall decline in the second quarter, putting the sector as a whole back on the growth track.
Welcome resurgence in jewellery
Until two years ago jewellery demand in all markets (Turkey apart) was either stagnant or in decline and Jim Burton, the Council’s CEO, commented: “It is imperative that we not only maintain, but increase our promotional efforts if gold jewellery is either to retain or grow its share of consumer spending”. It is noticeable, though, that in the key areas where the Council has been concentrating its promotional campaigns, growth in gold offtake has been stronger than in the majority of other areas.
The figures bear out the anecdotal evidence that has been coming through from gold dealers over the course of the quarter, especially the sustained strength in demand form India, which registered its highest ever quarterly demand both in tonnage and rupee terms. Offtake reached 277 tonnes, and this exceeded even the surge in demand in the first quarter of 1998, immediately after import liberalisation.
Highlights: India, the Middle East and China remain vibrant; Europe a problem
India is the world’s largest market for gold and its 277 tonnes accounted for an astounding 29% of total consumption in the quarter (typically India accounts for 18-20% of total). Jewellery offtake was up by 42% in the quarter over the second quarter of 2004 and by 54% for the first half year against year-ago levels. This was driven by a strong economy, increased promotion and improved rural incomes on the back of high crop prices plus a good winter harvest. Price movements were also important; much of the local market has taken the view that that gold prices are on an upward path and so while prices were easing marginally in the first half of the year they were accordingly seen as buying opportunities.
In the Middle East, demand was up by 13% aided by strong oil and healthy tourism; local economies are booming and offtake was also helped by the fact that gold prices were below the peaks of 2004. Turkey, one of the major success stories of late, was again strong, with demand up by 7% and the second quarter was up on year-ago levels for the third consecutive year.
In the US, innovative jewellery has seen very good growth as retailers have focused on strong marketing in an effort to preserve margins; demand was accordingly up by 4% in tonnage terms and 13% in value terms against Q2 2004; and gold outpaced growth in diamond sales in the quarter despite the rise in gold’s price.
Mainland China is still experiencing low physical investment as it is still very soon after the liberalisation of the investment market at the end of 2004; the promise is there, but it will take time for investment to pock up. Jewellery deregulation though was largely complete in 2003 and the jewellery industry is reaping the reward – enhanced not only by high crop prices but also the rapid growth of K-gold, which is 18-carat material with sophisticated design that is appealing to the urban consumer.
On the downside, Europe remains a problem area for gold jewellery demand, notably in Italy and the UK where sales fell by 7% and 14% respectively in the face of competition from other materials and ebbing consumer confidence overall.
Supply up by 14% over the second quarter of 2004
Total supplies in the second quarter were down against the first quarter at 895t against 1,048 tonnes, largely due to a reduction in official sector supplies and in an increase in de-hedging from the miners.
Mine production increased slightly to 620t, while the hedge book was reduced by 85 tonnes in the second quarter, giving an 8% increase in mine supply over Q2 2004 to 620t. Official Sector supplies were up by 86% at 147t, while scrap supply was up by only 3% as consumers adjusted to higher prices. The second year of the second Central Bank Gold Agreement kicks off on September 27 so while official sector supplies are likely to have been subdued in the third quarter (because so much of the CBGA metal came out in the fist six months of the CBGA year), it is also likely to pick up in the fourth quarter – at the same time as seasonal demand tends to strengthen further.
No price forecast, but…
The Council is prevented for legal reasons from making price forecasts. This column can adduce an interpretation, however – and it must be stressed that this is an editorial comment and does not come from the WGC. Reports for the first part of the third quarter suggest that offtake remains high. Subject always to sharp movements in price the backdrop continues to confirm that the underlying demand pressures in the market are strong and other factors, both fundamental and external, are supportive. Speculators have obviously been taking similar views recently and there are lingering concerns about the speculative overhang, but the underlying tone remains sound.
Quelle: http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/482260.htm
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