Beiträge von Eldorado

Silber, danach Palladium IMO

Update Depotanteil und Performance:

Angaben in Prozent bzw.Depotanteil sind vom Nettoeinsatz:

CEF & ZSIL ..... 12.4 % Nettoeinsatz

PM Minen..... 56%

Zockerminen..... 2.8%

Uranminen .......8.9%

Oil,Gas, Sand, Kohle..... 3%

Calls...... 1.4%

Physisches Gold.... 15.5%

Performance:

CEF & ZSIL..... +11%

PM Minen....+14%

Zockerminen..... -9.3%

Uranminen.... -7.5%

Oil,Gas,etc..... -3.1%

Gold und Silbercalls..... + 55%

Physisches Gold....+43%

Performance: Total....+15.6%

Gold Market

For the week, spot gold closed at $822.45, up $36.15 or 4.60 percent. Gold equities, as measured by the XAU Gold Index (10), gained 1.81 percent for the week. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index (11) renewed its decline with a loss of 1.01 percent for the week.

Strength

Gold demand in India, China and other Asian countries bucked expectations of a potential pullback by jumping during the third quarter.
In India, jewelry consumption gained 5.5 percent while investment demand rose 3.9 percent. India is currently the world’s largest consumer of gold.
China’s appetite for jewelry jumped 24 percent and investment demand soared 46 percent. China is the world’s third largest buyer of gold.

Weakness

Coinciding with the opening of the Mines and Money World Congress in London, the non-governmental organization War on Want released a report critical of the mining industry.
Bill Miller, a highly regarded mutual fund manager, noted he had avoided commodity-related investments because they typically have difficulty earning their cost of capital due to declining real prices.
In addition, Mr. Miller was skeptical of the arguments being made for peak oil in the near term.

Opportunity

Gold prices rallied to close out the week on a strong note as investor sentiment toward the metal turned positive.
The World Gold Council reported that gold ETFs now hold more than 700 tons of gold at a current value of slightly less than $19 billion. A well-known fund manager in this space noted, “It’s the privatization of central bank gold reserves.”
Morningstar highlighted several non-gold funds that had taken large positions in gold bullion via ETFs and noted that all of these funds sported year-to-date returns in the top-10 percent of their categories.

Threat

For all the enthusiasm toward gold ETFs, some investors will be surprised to learn they are not as tax efficient as buying equities in gold-producing companies.
Gold ETFs are taxed at 28 percent, the same rate as collectibles such as gold coins. In contrast, long-term capital gains taken on stocks are only taxed at 15 percent.
President Mugabe of Zimbabwe remains unchecked in his latest political reforms to give the state a 51 percent stake in mining companies operating within his country and essentially no compensation being paid for the share of the company.

source...US Global Investor

Ich brauche jetzt einen Kurs von 0.26 Teuro und hab dann mein Weihnachtsgeld drin oder den letzten Urlaub bezahlt.
Hoffentlich sind die Anleger am Montag genauso geil auf Voca-Voca wie am Freitag. :D...push it to the Moon...mir soll es recht sein.

Die koennten bald den KGV bei dem Kurs aendern beim running banner der Goldseiten. :D.....KGV 2

IMO beginnt der Angriff auf den Iran ca. mitte 2008, spaetestens 2009
mit einen Luftangriff der Iraelis mit US Unterstuetzung und Logistik.
Get ready for 120 - 150 USD Oilprice....
In Pakistan steht auch ein Wechsel ins Haus, Ex-President Sharif ist nun auch im Rennen. Komisch die duerfen Atomwaffen haben.
Im Mandarin Oriental in Manila waren viele Amis und Offiziere die diskutieren in der Tagung wieder ihr Lieblingsthema ""Weapons of Mass Distruction"" (WOM)..... lachhaft...was fuer Waffen haben denn die Amis ?
Jeder andere der denen nicht in den A kriecht bekommt nur eine Steinschleuder oder wie soll ich das verstehen.

Ich rechne mit einer kurzen Rally beim USD auf 77 die ich ausnutze, danach faellt er wieder unter die 75 UXD mit Tendenz 72 in 2009.
Beim CAD hat er schon fast bei 1:1 von 0.91 aufgeholt, der SFR und Euro sollten mit Hilfe der EZB bald kurzfristig korregiert werden mit der Begruendung das die Handelbilanz nun besser ausschaut und die Amis mehr exportieren...
Mir sind zu viele negative im Moment, wenn alle auf der Verkaeuferseite sind kann der Handel schnell drehen bei den Shorties und Presseberichten wie beim Spiegel..
Als Contrarian habe ich viel Geld verdient, rennt oder handelt nicht mit der Masse und kratzt vorher die kurve falls ihr mitmacht.
Die letzten beissen die Hunde...

Cheers

XEX

Schablonski

Ich bedanke mich ebenfalls fuer deine Arbeit und Charts.
Einige lachen drueber, ich nicht.
Wer hier den ganzen thread liest von Anfang und die Daten vergleicht kann sehen das sich doch was ruehrt bei Neu und Vollmond.
Oder kurz davor oder kurz dahinter +/- 2 Tage.
Ich schau zusaetzlich auch auf die anderen Charts die mit Mondphasen nichts zu tun haben und verlasse mich dann auf mein Bauchgefuehl.
So, erklaert mal warum einen Tag vor dem Vollmond am Freitag ploetzlich die EM anstiegen, reiner Zufall ???
Sicher spielten da auch andere Komponenten mit, der USD war es bestimmt nicht , der stieg leicht ueber 75 USXD und haette eher Gold runterziehen muessen.
Zwischen 21. Januar bis 25.Januar 2008 testen wir diese Theorie wieder, wetten das !!!
Auch vom 8.Januar bis 11.Januar 2008 in der Neumondphase.

Wer ueber (financial) Astrologie lacht dem wird das lachen vergehen.
Man kann damit sogar Geld verdienen... =)...oder verlieren wenn man die Planeten und Mondphasen als Humbuk anschaut.
Zitat Rockefeller...Financial Astrology is not for millionaires but for billionaires.

Die alte Regel ist bei Vollmond zu kaufen und bei Neumond zu verkaufen.
Diese stimmt für die meisten Märkte heute nicht mehr so durchgehend,die Dinge sind sicherlich komplizierter geworden da der Planet PPT eine grosse Rolle spielt.

Gruss

Eldo

Ich empfehle keinen mehr als 5% in Futures zu haben denn dort ist der groesste washout und surf.

Was mache ich dann ist die Frage ??...von den abgesehen das das leicht passieren kann, IMO der Krieg mit Iran ist in der Pipeline.
Und wenn sie nur Oil mit Gewalt billig holen damit man den SUV volltanken kann im Namen der Demokratie.

Garnix mach i !! , weit weg vom Kugelhagel mit Gold in der Tasche ruhig bleiben und wieder neu orientieren.

Wer will hier schon den Helden spielen...

Fuer USA bestimmt nicht !!!

auratico

Klar, Year End und Tax selling jeder will a ruah an Weihnachten von daily shocks.

Darum sage ich das ab 18. Dezember schon langsam der Dimmer gedreht wird. fuer den neuen LCD/Plasma TV oder Apple an Weihnachten.

Dann wird der ganze Schaas vergroessert den sie uns taeglich verzapfen.

Cheers....hier ein Traumstrand...

XEX

Die grosse Wall of worry war wohl im August, nun die kommt erst an dritter Stelle....die im Dezember 2006 Januar 2007 war auch ein Hammer...

Irgendwann hoert der grosse Druck auf und der Goldrush faengt an in unbekannte Hoehen.. ( IMO wir sind schon drueber, bei 850 plus bestimmt.)

Gold und Silber und vor allem die Aktien muessen sich von dem ""gemischten Salad "" bei CNBC mal absondern.

Speziell DJ und S&P damit der Ratio wieder stimmt.

Ich warte auf Bob Pisani das der mal Goldaktien empfehlt.

Gebt dem ganzen ""erstmal"" ein Jahr Zeit und ihr werdet alle belohnt IMO.

Lucky 888 in 2008, for sure ! ...oder 680 Teuros pro Unze sollten drin sein beim physischen.

Cheers

XEX

@Freefly..oder soll ich shorty sagen.

...Grasser Pessimist........ :D..calls und puts can kill you !

In your wildest dreams....and when its a ""short spectacle"" you sit out or buy again.

Leute verkauft bei 850 $$$.......Ritterwacht 2 :D..going to the ranch in Montana.

Dann kaufe ich wieder....

XEX

Sinclair.....buy at 20$ > dips and sell at 75 $ > profit....fuer short time trader.

Da kommen noch Tage wo es 50 $ rauf oder runter gehen kann, genug Adrenalin !

888 $ ????? ...in January 2008

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary

Buy every $20 break lightly and sell it $75 higher. Gold is headed to $887.50 and then $1050 most likely sooner than anyone anticipated. This time gold might not come down as it did in the 80s. This is the likely product of a revitalized and modernized Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio tied to a liquidity measure, not interest rates. This is it!

The US dollar could be at .7200 as soon as next week. That makes gold $887.50 in my opinion.

Also ich finde es Klasse wie die Russenbude gepusht wird, nochmal 20% und ich verkaufe die Mine unter dem Eis.
Mit global warming, koennte es vielleicht klappen das sie produzieren.

Kauf Leute, kauft !.... so lange der Banner oben im Forum laeuft.

Heute Vollmond, zum Glueck kein Handeltag.
Vielleicht gibt es noch eine Nebenwirkung bis Dienstag, ansonsten ist der Vollmond in letzter Zeit gnaedig zu den Edelmetallen.

Ich vermute mal das in den naechsten 10-14 Handelstagen die letzte Chance fuer Gold / Silber/HUI ist das Jahreshoch zu erreichen.
Danach brauchen die Leute Weihnachtsgeld, erst in den ersten 3-4 Monaten 2008 geht das Tauziehen dann weiter mit dem PPT und USD.

@PL

Na dann pass auf das bei einer neuen Weltorder das nicht dreimal pro Woche versteuert wird unter Lust oder Unterhaltungsteuer.

James Warburg als er vor dem Senatsausschuss für Auswärtige Angelegenheiten am 17. Februar 1950 Folgendes verlauten liess: “Wir werden zu einer Weltregierung kommen, ob sie dies mögen oder nicht. Die Frage ist nur, ob durch Unterwerfung oder Übereinkunft!”

Einer der mächtigsten Männer unseres Weltgeschehens, David Rockefeller, lies sich im Juni 1991 vor der Bilderberger-Konferenz in Baden-Baden zu folgender Aussage hinreissen: “Wir stehen am Rande einer weltweiten Umbildung. Alles, was wir brauchen ist die richtige, allumfassende Krise, und die Nationen werden in die Neue Weltordnung einwilligen!” (Was sehen wir derzeit in der Welt? Allumfassende Krisen! Gesundheitssystem, Rentensystem, Börse, Arbeitslosigkeit, Umweltverschmutzung, Umweltzerstörung, Korruption, … die Liste liesse sich beinahe unendlich fortsetzen!)

Lenz1

Kann schon sein das 2007 die grosse Wende ist, wenn nicht dann bricht bis spaetesten August 2012 alles zusammen und danach gibt es neue Spiel und Verhaltensregeln in einer neuen Welt. Auf jeden Fall wird das bestimmt nicht lustig bis dort hin.

Die Schwankungsbreite eines Depots hängt von vielen Einflußgrößen ab

Gammon Gold GAM.TO fuer Zocker oder Neueinsteiger bei 7 CAD ideal.
Wer die zu dem Preis kauft kann nicht viel falsch machen.
IMO sollte der Boden nun wirklich da sein, die kam von 20 CAD runter.
Genug gefallen ????

Und was sagt Mahendra ???

Dear Members,

The last week I talked about the current volatility in the market. According to present planetary positioning, this volatility in commodity, currency and stock prices is poised to persist. Indeed, the swing will be so huge (either on the up or downside), that those who don’t book profit may regret after prices drop.

We are here to make money and the world is changing so fast that we have to constantly make adjustments in accordance with emerging trends. A good example is the price movement of the Canadian dollar and British pound in the last seven trading sessions. Furthermore, we saw a similar trend in metals. In addition, more and more people are getting into the market, which means more money, ego and fighting in the battleground of the world financial market, which also means that some people will be hurt or wounded.

Once again I would like to focus on the European market and the future of Europe because as I am worried about its social, economic and political outlook. If I was handling anybody’s money, I would put two dollars out of a hundred in Europe, 35% would remain in the USA market :D.. while the rest would go to emerging markets.

My prediction is that Europe will plunge into major turmoil and my European investors should therefore have a good plan for the next ten years.

I would also like to bring to your attention another important market and investment region, that is India and China.

Both countries will be powerhouses and they will create enormous wealth for investors in the next four years... (gut dann kaufen sie mehr Gold)

In my first article on India in 1987, I said that India would become an economic superpower around 2005. Though the country has yet to attain the status, it has definitely achieved great success. Both India and China have been creating enormous amounts of wealth in the last two years and I know people who have made 20 to 30 times of their original investments within the last two and a half years. Indeed, there is still plenty of room for investors to make money for the longer term in these markets. When you see the list of fortune 500 companies or the top billionaires after three years, do not be surprised if 50% will be from India and China. Of course the two countries face numerous challenges ahead, but the overall outlook for their future is very bright if the challenges are effectively tackled.

I first became a sub-broker in the Indian market at the age of 20 and started my career in the financial market. I have been trading and watching this market for the last 20 years and I will be glad to advise those who want to invest in the Indian market – just send me an email. I am personally aware of the backgrounds of over 2000 publicly listed companies and those who want to take advantage should therefore not hesitate to write to me. I will be quite happy to assist, as I am always glad when someone makes money, even on my advice. In the last three years I have done a lot of research on the Chinese market and I also have a list of many publicly traded companies.

The last 20 months have seen a lot of ups and downs for my advising career but today I feel that the experience has made me mature. For the last 20 years my success rate has been so high that my ego could have given rise to overconfidence hence the punishment. Nevertheless, an up and down cycle is inevitable in everybody’s life and I cannot therefore remain untouched. I now feel emboldened and clearer in my thoughts and predictions. The uncertainty and confusion that was created by nature or hidden power has now been cleared from my mind.

Once again I wish you good luck and I wish the same from you to me so that we can walk on the path of success.

The weekly newsletter for 19 to 23 November 2007...last week !!

GOLD & SILVER

Last week metals traded in accordance with planetary movement. This week I see a sharp rising in gold and silver and I recommend buying gold and silver on Monday and holding till Friday. Any intra-day decline during this week should be taken as a buying opportunity. Gold and silver could move nearer to the previous high this week, but I very strongly recommend that you book 100% profit on Friday.

PLATINUM, PALLADIUM & COPPER

These metals will also rise during this week together with gold and silver. Any short should therefore be covered on Monday, and sell back everything on Friday.

STOCK MARKET

This week all the major markets will trade positively. Base metals, metals, energy and alternative energy stocks will rise sharply in all major stock markets. I highly recommend short term buying in all major indexes, but one should remember to book profit by Friday.

COFFEE & COTTON

Coffee and cotton prices will rise sharply from Tuesday. Hold your position in coffee but one can book profit in cotton on Thursday.

ORANGE JUICE & LUMBER & SUGAR

We shall see a sharp rising in orange juice and sugar this week, therefore one can take a buying position and hold the position in sugar, but one should sell orange juice on Thursday. Lumber prices will rise on Tuesday and Wednesday, and short-term traders can therefore buy on Monday as I see prices moving up more than five percent.

TREASURY BOND

This week prices of 30-year treasury bonds will rise sharply from Monday to Wednesday. We shall however see weakness on Thursday and Friday.

GRAINS

The grains bull market is nearing its end. Just like we called a crash in wheat prices two months back, they could decline quite sharply. As a matter of fact, do not buy any grains at this stage. One can buy puts and sell calls on Friday of the next three months as soy bean, soy oil and soy meal will crash more than 30% in the same period.

OIL

This week oil prices will trade in a mixed trend. Unfortunately, the last degree of Jupiter does not have a clear sign, meaning that I am unable to guide you properly in regard to this week’s oil trend. However, I don’t see much action on the whole for oil, and it will trade according to technical points. On the down side, I see oil touching $91.80 while on the higher side it will move up to $97.80. On Monday and Tuesday oil may trade sideways or weakly, while it will rise sharply from Wednesday to Friday, therefore plan your trades accordingly. I highly recommend buying natural gas on Tuesday.

CURRENCY

What a strong rise of the US dollar against the Canadian and Australian dollars as well as the British pound.
These currencies will rise against the dollar on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, but they will sharply decline on Thursday and Friday.

The Euro and Swiss Franc will make a new high, therefore watch closely.
The Japanese yen will lose value against all world currencies and it will lose sharply against the US dollar.

Load your boat with the US dollar against commodity currencies on Friday.
This week the dollar index will not do much as it will remain weak against the Euro and gain against the Japanese yen. This will therefore keep the US dollar trading within a narrow range. It is great opportunity to buy Dollar around $0.75.

IMPORTANT NOTE!!!

THE CURRENT WEAKNESS OF THE DOLLAR AND THE RISING TREND OF COMMODITIES MATCH WELL, BUT THERE WILL BE INITIAL PRESSURE ON COMMODITIES WHEN THE DOLLAR STARTS RISING ANYTIME FROM WEDNESDAY THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BE EXPECIALLY IN METALS, OIL AND GRAINS AFTER THIS WEEK.

MY HUMBLE REQUEST IS THAT YOU GET OUT FROM METALS AND METAL STOCKS BY FRIDAY. .....yesterday !

IT DOESN’T MATTER HOW MUCH YOU LOVE METALS. I KNOW THAT AROUND 50% OF MY MEMBERS ARE FROM THE METAL COMMUNITY, SO IT IS IMPORTANT THAT YOU TAKE MY MESSAGE SERIOUSLY.

del

I don’t think I have ever experienced a week like this where I received so many unsolicited letters or articles by people connected to the financial community in which the basic theme was: “This is it! The financial fabric of the world is unraveling. The Dollar is a lost cause, stocks are a lost cause, and the advances of Gold, Silver foreign currencies, and Oil are going to continue uninterrupted as the entire world falls into a state of complete bankruptcy.
Order now to find out what you can do to protect yourself against the coming Depression.”

Short term:

In the study of Financial Astrology, time bands that highlight combinations of Mars, Jupiter and Uranus can coincide with extreme price moves, corresponding with a sense of hysteria, panic, or over-confidence. I don’t think we see any over-confidence today, but rather a whole lot of panic and hysteria. Mars tends to drive one to take action, usually based upon impulse. The only problem is that when it is retrograde – as it is November 14-January 30 - such impulsive action is usually ill-timed. The nature of Uranus is to be more irrational. Markets can move well above resistance zones, or below support zones, and thus there is a sense of a “break-out.” However. Like Mercury and Mars retrograde, the break out is usually temporary, and then becomes a “fake out.” But once again, as the market moves strongly, people believe they must act and act now, or they will miss out. So they act irrationally, usually buying right near the top or selling right near the bottom. It is a humbling experience to get caught up in the tricks of Uranus and Mercury. Jupiter and Pluto come together only every 13 years, and together they can coincide with a sense of urgency, even hysteria due to the nature of Jupiter (it exaggerates whatever it contacts). In this case, it contacts Pluto, ruler of debt and fear of the worst. The sub-prime mortgage tragedy is a perfect example of today’s Jupiter-Pluto crisis. The extent of those losses is just coming to light. But to read all the solicitations by the financial expects who somehow get a hold of your email address, you would think that this crisis will never end. The aspect soon comes to an end, and just as it has in the past, such crises will come to an end too. At least for awhile. In late 1994 (the last time this signature unfolded) it was the Orange County Municipal Bond default that took place. In 1981, the time before that, Treasuries were at their lowest levels ever (highest yields ever), as people feared that even the U.S.A. might default, or at least be unable to contain inflation. In each case, the crisis ended shortly after Jupiter passed by Pluto. But while it was in effect, panic and fear were indeed exaggerated - just like they probably are today.

Longer-Term Thoughts:

The more serious concerns, as shown by Financial Astrology studies, are probably still some time off into the future, when the “Cardinal Climax” takes place (late 2008 through 2015).

would not be surprised if at any day now, the worst of this sub-prime mess is over. I can imagine a scenario where banks and lending institutions have been instructed to work out deals for those home owners who were harmed by these predatory lending practices. Interest rates have gone down since these problems came glaring to the surface in mid-August. New mortgages can now be created at terms that are far better than they were just three months ago.

But then one has to wonder what happens when those new adjustable rates mortgages, being worked out to help home owners today, kick in to higher rates? This will probably happen during the time that Saturn and Uranus form hard aspects to Pluto (2009-2015). As Yogi Berra says, it may be déjà vu all over again.

http://www.mmacycles.com/weekl…inning-november-26,-2007/