Beiträge von Eldorado

Calm Before The Storm?
Puru Saxena

28 February 2007

CURRENT SITUATION - Everything seems to be going well in the financial world and the investing public is busy doing what it does best – bidding up stock prices after a big rally. Today, there is no regard for risk with the investors’ greed being stoked by the mainstream financial media which claims that the US economy is in a sweet spot due to reasonable growth and low inflation (as measured by the bogus official statistics). In all fairness, the bulls have plenty to cheer about. After all, the long-term bond-yield in the US is still relatively low, the price of oil has taken a tumble and global stock markets are flirting with their record-highs. So, I ask myself whether we should join the herd or is it time for caution?

My observation is that dark clouds are gathering over the horizon and this is the time to be on guard. In fact, we may be experiencing the proverbial calm before the storm. Bearing in mind the recent developments in the Middle-East, I suspect that a geo-political disaster is around the corner. I hope I am wrong but it increasingly looks as though either Israel or the US will attack Iran over its “nuclear program”. I had first forecast this in August 2005 and believe my fears will be validated in the near future. Over the past few weeks, Washington has increased its rhetoric over Iran’s “nuclear program” and dispatched the USS John C. Stennis and USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier groups to Iran. This is an ominous development and suggests that we may be at the brink of another war.

History has shown that all major bull-markets in commodities have coincided with rising political tensions and war (Figure 1). In other words, whenever shortages in natural resources caused prices to rise, nations did everything in their power to secure their share.

Figure 1: Commodity bull-markets coincide with war

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/saxena/saxena030107.html

Das ist alles was dahintersteckt mit dem China Jitter, viel Rauch um nichts, Rohstoffe und Edelmetalle werden weiter gekauft, erst recht mit Fiat Dollars.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gerbino/gerbino022807.html

Conclusion:

Excessive speculation in China by retail customers and a market correction have little to do with the Chinese economy's forward progress. The plans to build 120 airports a year for the next 10 years and tens of thousands of other projects will not be affected because some gamblers and speculators overdid it.

Gold and gold mining shares, despite a short term disappointment will surely recover as the investing world has been given a wake up call on the frailty of paper assets owned by global investors. Base metal stocks will also recover as the China and India growth story has many years to go.

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Yesterday the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite suffered its biggest loss in a decade -- down about 9%. The Chinese government has been warning that it would slow China's furious rate of growth. Bank reserves were contracted a few times, the Chinese central bank stepped on the brakes. The result -- a major smash in Chinese stocks. It was a crash heard 'round the world.

If China slows down, China's enormous export of goods will slow down. China's huge use of commodities will slow down. The activities of 1.3 billion Chinese people will slow down. How much of a change the nine percent drop in Chinese stocks will bring on, remains to be seen. Some see it as merely a temporary warning, a "gut-check." Others take it more seriously. My opinion -- major bull moves don't tend to end this way. Major tops entail weeks, more often months, of distribution. I haven't seen the signs of steady distribution yet. I've seen overvaluation, over-speculation, over-optimism, ignoring of risk -- but I have not yet [seen] the signs of distribution.

It used to be said that when the US sneezed, the rest of the world caught a cold. And I wonder, has that changed? Is it China that has now taken the US's place? When China coughs, is the rest of the world in trouble. Hard to believe, but that may well be the case today. Below, a daily chart of FXI, the "China 25 Index Fund."

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell022807.html

Sorry, Edelman, ich habe versehentlich einen neuen thread aufgemacht, bitte verschieben oder schliessen.

Gruss

XEX

Der link ist ploetzlich verschwunden sehe ich gerade.
Da kommt eine andere Story.

@GB

Wir haben es oft diskutiert das die POG Daten von Kitco und Comex oft merkwuerdig schwanken und der aktuelle Preis den wir sehen manipuliert sein kann.
Die nutzen alle Tricks und drehen an den Zahlen wie sie es brauchen.IMO
Das PPT kann so etwas leicht anstellen, weisst du wer oben sitzt und die Computer fuettert. ?
Ich habe es oft erwaehnt, wenn nun jemand einige tonnen Gold will dann kriegt er das Gold nicht fuer den angezeigten Preis.

Gruss

XEX

http://www.reuters.com/article…ews/idUSL2724139820070227

NEW YORK -- A computer glitch has been understating the price of gold by thousands of dollars per ounce since 1995, the New York Mercantile Exchange announced today in a statement on behalf of its Comex division.

A price-monitoring program installed at the Comex that year somehow has been registering only half the buy orders for gold while doubling the sell orders, the exchange said. As a result, the exchange said, the closing gold price reported daily has been understated by about $800 per year cumulatively and gold will open Wednesday not at Tuesday's listed closing price of $666.30 but at $9,663.30.

The exchange said that traders who believe that they have lost money since 1995 because of the computer glitch should refer to the "force majeure" section of their exchange contracts, which exempts the exchange from responsibility for computer programming errors.

@thanks Linar

Mehr als 650 USD POG und HUI 312 downhill kann ich mir nicht vorstellen.

Falls es so kommen sollte kaufe ich blind nach eventuell schon vorher.

Vielleicht ist der Boden bei GB seiner speziellen Devil Nummer.

Die Action am Freitag interessiert mich am meisten.

Lohnt es sich zu warten ??

All in all, last week was powerfully bullish for nearly all financial and commodity markets, a phenomenon that may now be in jeopardy as we approach the lunar eclipse period of next weekend, in which the Sun will also conjunct Uranus, planet of sudden reversals.

Eine Entscheidungsschlacht denke ich mir an dem Tag.

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Goldbugs unconcerned meinen einige :

http://www.grandich.com/docs/fnarena_02-28-07.jpg

Ich muss jetzt ins Bett Lupo, sonst gibts Stress.

Dear Schablonski

This is not alert but reminder:

Many big time traders and few impatient investors want to believe my prediction of fall of stock market and that is their choice but my request is not to ignore my theory. I am thankful to planetary movement and at the same time I am confident about what I am predicting so watch these two predictions very closely:

1. GREAT FALL OF ALL MAJOR MARKETS (for short term)
2. GREAT RISE OF DOLLAR

Also this week I am not recommending buying metals so lighten up if you are holding big position. Don't fall in love, don't get excited and let the crowd make the noise but you have keep yourself clam and watch the situation carefully because after the first week of March I will able write about the future trend of metals and I will confirm that they are going towards a historic high or not (I will write my fair view because I don't write with hate or love - My problem is I write what I see).

You are paying high fee for my newsletter and it is my duty to guide you.

Once again this week:

AVOID METALS TILL TUESDAY...maybe next week ?
AVOID OIL
BUY DOLLAR

SELL OR GET FROM ALL MAJOR STOCK INDEXES (ASIAN MARKET OPENED QUITE WEAK ON TUESDAY AND THEY SHOULD CLOSE WEAK)

Last week was quite volatile as a number of economic data came to the market one after the other. Talk of inflation, growth of the economy, business environment and concerns over the housing market dominated the currency and stock markets.

Indeed, inflation is rising like a flame around the globe and policy makers are unfortunately taking it very easy, their only comment being to remain watchful about the upcoming data since they believe that the numbers will guide them. Astrologically I am not happy with current planetary movements because what is happening out there is not a good sign: History shows that something usually becomes big news when we ignore it. For instance, economists and other market players were not concerned when oil was moving up and trading around $40, only to panic when it reached $80. According to current planetary movements, there is reason for concern in some areas.

STOCK MARKET

I have been writing about a weak market trend and announced the final date as 14 February. I usually don’t write some things for fun or as a joke, and I consider it my duty to write about what I see, even though I have been wrong many times on short-term predictions for a few days or weeks. Nevertheless, I feel some unease after looking at the market trend after 14 February, and my prayer is that it will only be a small fall. However, I see the likelihood of a sharp and fast fall whose impact will be very negative for the short-term.

From Mahendra

Thyssenkrupp mal im Auge behalten

__________________
jetzt.... ist es - wie es ist

....ich gehe schlafen.

XEX

@GB

""Ein Bull sollte immer schwarz sein!""

Relax doch mal....
Du bist schon so ein Held, schrei net so rum.

SKI FAHRN !!!.... guter Song, Saccard.

Lets hope the low comes this week.

If not the week after.

Cheers

XEX

Die mundane Saturn/Neptun-Opposition lässt "Grüßen".

Der Crash sollte aber nur von kurzer Dauer sein und das Timing nach oben nicht ganz einfach.

Tief Cosmo-Chart ca. 27.2 bis 1.3.2007.

Mit freundlichen Grüßen

Henning P. Schäfer

http://www.cosmo-trend.com/

Vielleicht ist der Vollmond eine Ueberraschung mit der Eclipse und es geht Bergauf.....who knows ?

Die Korrektur kam diesmal vor dem Vollmond, mal was anderes.

Sinclair....

"At first the equity market breaks would bring in temporary sellers of gold.

And then.......

Zitat

Original von Saccard
Eldo, ich glaube nicht daß die Chinesen noch sehr viel Geld zum Investieren übrig haben werden. Die haben viel mit Kredit spekuliert und Shanghai ist für Ausländer geschlossen. Das kann ganz böse wie 1929 ausgehen: Deflation.

Die Krise wird wohl tatsächlich von China usgehen (Aufsteiger) genau wie sie in den 20ern von den USA ausging (ebenfalls damals Aufsteiger).

Gruß
S.

Saccard, kann alles sein , die Amis haben mit noch mehr Kredit spekuliert, fuer mich ich das ein Trick um nochmal an Rohstoffe und Edelmetalle guenstig ranzukommen, das ist der Vorteil vom ""China Jitter"".

Die Chinese haben genug Geld, herrlich wie sie die Amis austricksen und ihren Fiat $ dabei los werden.

Moeglich ist eine kurze Deflation fuer ein 6-8 monate aber dann faengt die Hyperinfllation und Rezession an wo Bush dann ganz durchdreht.

Jihad....

Die Chancen sind momentan 52% IMO.

We''ll see a lot of sheeps......

Ciao

XEX

Ratschlaege sind auch Schlaege, die Gefahr ist das jetzt raus und unten rein weniger bringt als auszusitzen.

Time is a healer they say.

Value und hoffentlich ich gehen bald in Urlaub, dann muss es ja wieder raufgehen.

Die paar Wochen kann man aussitzen, nicht hinschaun, kraenk di net.

XEX

Hier ein Bild von Valueman in der Karibik.

Da platzen noch mehr Blasen.... Saccard.

"Watching the pot come to a boil"

Shanghai stock market index falls 8.8%, pulling down Hong Kong and Europe
We're seeing more and more investor panic on the fringes.

The Shanghai Composite stock market index fell 8.8% on the February 27 session that ends at 2:30 am ET. This is Shanghai's biggest loss in ten years.

As we recently discussed, the Shanghai market has experienced an enormous bubble, especially since mid-2006, with the index almost doubling. Millions of people spending all day watching stock prices go up and down in crazy day-trading sessions, just like America in 1999. Even Chinese officials have expressed concern about a collapse.

With so much concern about a Shanghai bubble, everyone is nervous, and today's 8.8% fall may lead to further panic. Such things are impossible to predict with certainty, but this is certainly a time for caution.

The Shanghai results had a small domino effect.
Wohin geht nun bald die Kohle ???

IMO, China kauft dann mehr Gold als Dollar .....jetzt preiswerter

Mein Riecher sagt solange Bush in Iran nur Cowboy Spiele macht ist der letzte Punkt bzw. Fruehjahr am 26 Maerz.IMO
Dann sollte man aufpassen, sonst nimmt das Sommerloch ohne Krieg den Profit mit Gold Baron.

Expect the unexpected !

Erst kommt ein Mindgame vom PPT.

Mal schaun wie die HUI Aktien mit den anderen mitziehen.

Hat gut gewirkt, der China Jitter, schlagartig braucht man weniger Rohstoffe und Edelmetalle die China jetzt guenstiger kaufen kann. .

Theoretisch sollte Gold steigen unter 83.5 USD/IDX.

Gut gedreht vom PPT.

Cheers

XEX

Hast recht Chiller, the shaking has just started, do not buy too early.

Ja, fuer manche ist das scheisse, kenn ich gut.

Das ganze Wetter und die Seasons hat sich verschoben.

Nur nicht die Flinte ins Korn schmeissen, hold !.

Think positive, you got Gold.

Gnight, tomorrow is a brand new day.

Ich hoffe ihr erholt Euch.

XEX

Ich spare mir das I told you so sonst springt ihr mir mit dem nackten Arsch ins Gesicht.

Diesmal konnte das PPT meinen Fruehjahrprofit nicht wegnehmen.

Fast 20% wurde an Aktien verkauft, lieber frueher als zu spaet.

Die es nicht gemacht haben muessen es wieder aussitzen.

Der HUI war der Hammer heute, POG koennte auf die 628 fallen.

HUI auf 320 wenns hart auf hart geht.

Ab 642 steige ich langsam wieder ein, physisch, eventuell ein paar Call OS 700 USD 2009.

Aktien sind nun genug genervt im Depot.

Noch nicht einmal Vollmond, da kommt noch mehr Drama IMO.

Bald wissen wir das Verhaeltniss DJ vs. HUI.

Was sollst, ich finde diese Korrektur hervorragend mit Cash in der Tasche..

Selten ein Nachteil ohne Vorteil.

Nicht boese sein, aber einige von Euch waren wieder zu optimistisch oder zu gierig.

GB...halte dich mit deinen Prognosen raus, jedesmal das selbe passiert.

PS: Ein neuer Kontradikt neben Mahendra bist du nun fuer mich.

Gute Nacht

Ohne Worte...

:D..sowas die wie abgestuerzte Oremex kann man schon nachkaufen bei dem Limit.
Muss zugeben sowas wie RTP FCX LIHR BHP und SIL reizt aber auch.
Ich brauche noch ein paar Dividenden.
Das ist ja ein richtiges Blutbad heute bei den Uranminen, zum Glueck schon vorher abgesahnt.

Ich gebe hauptsaechlich nur die USD aus, die CAD's lasse ich mal.
Die sieht solide aus wenn die Waehrungen krachen.