Hamilton:
Unfortunately I don't have a definitive answer on whether or not the HUI will follow the stock markets down.
Anything can happen in the markets at any time, they are ultimately just a probabilities game.
Beiträge von Eldorado
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Le Metropole Members,
Served at The Little Bear Table
Comments On Enrico Orlandini article "Find the Cost
of Freedom."By Adrian Douglas
I have written comments on Orlandini's article. He stated
that mining stocks will crash with a stock market crash.I dispute that because it is likely to be a monetary
system crash. I have put forward my thoughts which might
help clarify this and stimulate café discussion.also....
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'Organised crime harming SA
2007-02-16 13:11:45
Organised crime caused more harm to the national psyche than other offences, Safety and Security Minister Charles Nqakula said.
Surveys had shown that 80% of murders were committed by people known by the victims within a social environment, he told a media briefing at parliament.
However, murders resulting from organised crimes had a greater impact on the population at large.
"The murders that dramatically affect the psyche of the nation are those that flow from organised crime," he said.
In many cases these crimes were committed in daylight on highways, around banks and in shopping malls.
"Some bystanders have even been killed in the crossfire."
Crime prevention
A sustained campaign against organised crime, launched in July last year, had led to 8 347 arrests in connection with 10 085 cases across the country, Nqakula said.
Referring to crime prevention in general, Nqakula said community policing forums would be revamped to help determine where resources needed to be prioritised.
More reservists would also be recruited with the emphasis on obtaining people with expert skills such as doctors and helicopter pilots.
He hoped to recruit 100 000 reservists to increase police visibility in high crime areas.
News24/SAPA
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Damien :D... auch LV.V geht rauf.
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Ich lege es mal hier rein, Bolivia geschaedigt, daher preiswert bei den news.:
PAN AMERICAN SILVER
PROVEN & PROBABLE RESERVES UP 20%, 35.4 MILLION OUNCES ADDED
Vancouver, British Columbia – Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS: NASDAQ; PAA: TSX) is pleased to announce the results of its 2006 year-end reserve and resource evaluation. In addition to replacing 100% of reserves mined during 2006, the Company added a further 20%, or 35.4 million ounces of silver, to its proven and probable reserves. At the Company’s operating and development properties, measured and indicated resources increased 12.1 million ounces, while inferred resources grew by 9.9 million ounces.
“Mining is all about building and then extracting the value from your reserve and resource book,” said Geoff Burns, President and CEO. “Our property-focused exploration efforts in 2006 yielded great results. We not only replaced all of our 2006 production, but also added significant new silver reserves and resources at every one of our operating or development properties. We now have proven and probable reserves for over ten years of mining at our current rates of production.”
Reserves particularly increased at the Company’s Morococha and La Colorada mines. At Morococha, proven and probable reserves have increased five-fold since Pan American acquired the operation in mid-2004. At La Colorada, primarily due to the discovery of the new Amolillo zone, 3.6 million ounces were added to proven and probable reserves in addition to replacing ounces mined in 2006.
The full results of the Company’s 2006 drilling programs have been incorporated into the year-end reserve and resource estimate. For further information on the results of the Company’s 2006 exploration program, please refer to the Company’s press release dated January 9, 2007, found at: http://www.panamericansilver.c…lorationUpdateFinal2.pdf.
Please click on the following link to view a complete summary of the Company’s Reserves, Resources and Historical estimates as at December 31, 2006:
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..... zum link oben:
565...worst case but I don't think so, at most > 610 USD. IMO
With this new information, we are beginning to see perhaps a $740 spring, 2007 high, a retracement back to $565
and a new January, 2008 crank-up rally to $850-$900. This idea would suggest a mild, mediocre, fall 2007 gold move which could be eminently discouraging to gold and silver bugs. As always, just when it appears all is lost, these markets turn on a dime and blast off like a Saturn Rocket.The next big question is this; if gold touches a $740 high this spring do we get a $550 price for this summer or something less extreme? Common sense tells us the largest exit will be near $850 based upon the former high many years ago. A one level Fibonacci retracement from $740 might give us $565-$566 which is also an intermediate price location where gold likes to sit and rest.
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Patience is difficult in this business as we all know. Especially for those having big bucks on the line hoping and praying for more longs to pile in. We would suggest taking it slowly :D, ... carefully and easily by corralling your risk and placing a very strong emphasis on buying physical precious metals (coins) when the stocks and futures game is non-directional and really messy.
The directionless, flat-lined floundering might appear in the May-December, 2007 period which last year was electioneering induced. That one got my blood pressure up as well as the anger of lots of traders. Market manipulators caused it and we think they’ll hit us again in the fall of 2007 when gold and silver could remain technically weaker coming off a very long hot, blah summer.
So spatestens mitte Maerz Gewinne einfahren, 25% traden dann in Deckung gehen und Ende August/September wieder kaufen habe ich vor.
Ob es sich lohnt ist eine andere Sache.
Es sei mit Iran/Dollar passiert etwas dass koennte das Sommerloch aendern und es gibt keine Fruehjahrswatsche fuer die Goldbugs.
Vielleicht hat das PPT seine Ammunition schon verschossen und die Deriviatenbombe ist bereits am ticken.
Who knows ??....expect the unexpected.
Der Neumond naechste Woche wird Gold aus der verflixten 666/69 rausholen. IMO
In den naechsten zwei Wochen wirds sich zeigen ob der Bulle noch Luft hat bis 715 USD.
Zwei Moeglichkeiten : (Zitat Laird)
Depending on what the USD does in the next week or two, we will either see a nice break for gold above 700, or if the USD does not break down to the low 80's in the USDX, we will likely see a mild correction in gold to the 630/40 level.
February 15, 2007
Christopher Laird
Gnight
XEX
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Konservativ und sicher ist auch:
The fundamental tenet of investment theory is diversification or in layman's terms to not have all the proverbial eggs in the one basket.
Thus a wide range of assets including a variety of equities with exposures to different market sectors and regions; a variety of different countries’ bonds; a diversified property portfolio; a cash component with sound international currencies and 10% to 20% allocation to gold and silver bullion would be considered a sensible, conservative and prudent properly diversified portfolio.Ich halte nichts von Bonds, James Bond reicht mir.
Ein bedrucktes Papier ist weniger wert wenns kracht als Sachwerte die man handel kann.
30% Cash in der richtigen Waehrung und 70% Gold wer eine Immobilie hat ist auch nicht schlecht.
Ansonsten den Vorschlag von Sidha.
Just in case
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Vom Kauf einer Immobilie rate ich dir ab weil du sie spaeter billiger bekommst wenn du mit Gold bezahlst.
Selbst bei 668 USD POG sicherst und vermehrst du dein Geld mindestens auf doppelte innerhalb von 3-4 Jahren.
Die beste Rentenversicherung noch dazu, die anderen gehen baden, die haben wenn sie Glueck haben noch 40% der Kaufkraft von jetzt wenn sie eine Rente erhalten, zu Leben zu wenig und zum sterben zu viel.
Schulden mache ich eher auf Gold als auf einer Immoblie.
Belehne dein physisches Gold oder Silber zu 40% ist auch nicht schlecht.
Schuldenfrei und eine eigene Immoblie ist gut wenn du darin wohnst.
Mieten in den Zeiten und mobil sein ist die beste Loesung IMO.
15- 20% Gold physisch rate ich jeden vom Gesamtkapital.
Gold kannst du vertrauen, bloss nicht einer Regierung oder Versicherung bzw. Immobilie die weniger gefragt ist wenn der Crash kommt.
Und der kommt !.... wann genau weiss ich auch nicht, die Gewitterwolken sind schon zu sehen.
Geld am Sparbuch.....dabei verlierst du wenn du Inflation in Betracht ziehst.
Gruss
Eldo
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Den Rabbi kann es bald an den Kragen gehen....
'It is time for jihad""
'2007-2-16 16:02
Istanbul - A Syrian al-Qaeda militant on trial for masterminding suicide bomb attacks on Jewish and British targets that killed more than 60 people in Istanbul in 2003 called on supporters on Friday to wage a holy war.
Louai al Sakka is charged with planning and securing finance for the truck bombings of two synagogues, the British consulate and a branch of HSBC bank in November 2003 - one of Turkey's worst episodes of peacetime violence.
A Turkish cell in the al-Qaeda network claimed responsibility for the attacks.
"We are close to victory. The time for jihad (holy war) has come, but don't worry about me. I will get out, then I will once again join your jihad," Sakka said in court ahead of a final verdict.
Nine out of some 70 people on trial on charges related to the bombings were in court. The court is expected to deliver its verdict later on Friday on at least some of the defendants.
Security was tight around the courthouse, with sharp-shooters on roof-tops and armoured personnel carriers stationed outside.
Prosecutors have sought life sentences for several key defendants, including Sakka, charged in Turkey's highest-profile trial since the 1999 conviction of Kurdish guerrilla leader Abdullah Ocalan.
Sakka, who cracked jokes with his co-defendants, has pleaded not guilty.
Security sources have said Sakka, a bomb-making expert, was the top figure in Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network in Turkey.
One of the defendants, Baki Yigit, told the court on Thursday that he had met bin Laden in Afghanistan.
Turkey, NATO's only Muslim member, is seen as a prime target for radical Islamist movements who loathe the European Union candidate's secular political system and its close links with the United States, Israel and Europe.
Reuters
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Scripture on gold and ‘Big E’
The seventh time the servant reported:
“A cloud as small as a man’s hand, is rising from the sea.”
So Elijah said, “Go and tell Ahab, ‘Hitch up your chariot
And go down before the rain stops you.’”
1 Kings chapter 18, verse 44
SUMMARYAs market analysts approach the first quarter of a new year, they invariably take up the challenge of attempting to forecast what will happen by the end. Everyone’s looking for winners, be they metals, markets, currencies or stocks. Yet if statistical theories run true the search is futile unless – in some miraculous way –one can read into the future and forecast the ‘unexpected’.
The Financial Times end-of-year edition contained an appropriate comment on this topic by financial journalist John Authors. His column is always sub-titled ‘The Long view’. The writer was a great admirer of his predecessor Phillip Coggan who retired late last year. Authors will have a tough job filling his shoes. On this occasion his weekly column was headed:
‘Geopolitics, credit blow-ups, market forecasts – and the toss of a coin’
Two key paragraphs summarized his take on the problem of forecasting:
“A number of trends have been consistent ever since the bursting of the internet bubble in 2000. The world over, small companies and the value style of investing have outperformed year after year. So has GOLD, so have Industrial Metals, and so has Property. At an international level, so have Emerging Markets. And since Equities hit bottom in 2002, Equities have been a good place to be. At some point, these trends will pull back towards long-term averages. But there is no particular reason to expect these trends to reverse in 2007.
However, if the efficient markets hypothesis is correct, then the coin-tossing analogy is a good one. It holds that ALL information is incorporated into asset prices. Thus only NEW information will CHANGE them. This implies that there is no point playing the game of predicting next year’s market moves, as to do this would require information that is NOT YET KNOWN.”
If one accepts John Authors’ basic findings, the answer to his conundrum would appear to be twofold. First seek to obtain information which is not yet GENERALLY known. Second, ascertain whether under certain special circumstances it is not possible even to PREDICT what is not yet widely appreciated by sensing what to LOOK for. This letter focuses on both with one clear intention: that subscribers benefit and are blessed. His views could of course be wrong, but hopefully even the process to be followed will be an interesting one, treading paths ‘less traveled’ and encouraging others to try the same.
“NASDAQ - built on a foundation of lies”
At time of publication the NASDAQ was five days past its all-time high of 5,135, reached on March 12, 2000. After quoting the views of Dana Buys of Ixchange, the writer predicted a 50% crash. Here’s what Buys said before the crash:
“This is a market driven by momentum, not value, and who knows where that begins!”
Two-and-a-half years later, on October 10, 2002, the NASDAQ registered an intra-day low of 1108, an overall decline of 78% from top to bottom. That said, honesty demands an admission that none of the writer’s gloomy forecasts of a deepening global market crack ever materialized to the extent predicted. Where collapses occurred – as in the example above - recoveries were swift. After the passage of time some even notched new highs, as in the case of the Dow. Many still gape in amazement at what has happened. It runs counter to common sense. -
Als naechstes reden wir was sie mit dem Zipfel vom Rabbi gemacht haben um das Thema abzuschliessen.
Nach neuesten Erkenntnissen gibt eine Beschneidung einen 40-50% Schutz gegen HIV.
Tatsache, in vielen Test wurde es bewiesen.
Koennen wir bitte wieder zum Thema kommen sonst wirds langweilig und kindisch ueber Rabbi gross weiter zu reden.
Also ich brauche keinen.
Have a nice weekend, nix fuer unguat.
Eldo
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INFLUENCE OF THE ‘GOLD CARTEL
At the other end of the scale, the oft-proclaimed ‘runaway move’ in gold – blazoned to accompany the collapse in market indices - has also yet to materialize. The price of gold has certainly risen but the pattern of its behavior has been tame – at times inconsistent in relation to surrounding events. Negative economic news often sends gold reeling when it should be going up. GATA members are today fully persuaded that the rightful extent of gold’s potential appreciation has - for at least a decade - been covertly capped by the strong hand of ‘official intervention’. The authorities have used what GATA now refers to as the ‘Gold Cartel’. Whatever the explanation for gold’s poor performance, it still doesn’t exonerate those of us who got it wrong. So what is this ‘Gold Cartel’ and can one hope to stay its clammy hand in the future?
The ‘Gold Cartel’ can best be described as a coterie of ‘bullion banks’ – amongst them the likes of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. They act in concert with global money groups and international central banks, some of which are privately owned - as in the case of the Fed. Their collective long-term mandate has been to protect the FIAT currency system, especially preserving the continuing international acceptability of the US dollar. They achieve this by suppressing the price of gold so that it never ‘competes’ with the dollar – or for that matter any other FIAT currency. The word ‘FIAT’ is a direct translation of the Latin verb meaning: ‘Let it be done’. It refers to any paper currency whose sole value relies on a Government edict to the effect that it is deemed ‘an acceptable means of settlement’.
In contrast the Latin word ‘specie’ means ‘in the form of’ and refers to precious metals like gold and silver which have been minted in the form of ‘moneta’, the Latin word for ‘mint’. This is real ‘money’ and has intrinsic value. Should a Government explode in revolutionary chaos, previous edicts become worthless whereas ‘moneta’ retains its buying power through thick and thin. This is because the precious metal from which it is minted always retains its underlying value irrespective of the wishes of politicians.
In order to protect the acceptability of international paper currencies like the dollar, the ‘Gold Cartel’ encourages regular central bank sales of the metal to keep a cap on price. These sales often manifest secretly by way of what is euphemistically referred to as ‘gold loans to intermediaries’. The metal ‘loaned’ is immediately onsold, often with no expectation that the central bank lender will ever call for its repayment.
The subdued performance of gold keeps demand under wraps and investors away. Gold loans exaggerate supply despite the fact that free central bank stocks are finite and close to running out. Simultaneously and subtly the Cartel seeks at every turn to discredit the metal’s role as both ‘money’ and a ‘store of value’. To date these efforts have been largely successful, although in recent times the tide of battle has slowly begun to swing in favor of investors. Nonetheless, since the upturn in resource prices began in 2001, Gold’s performance has significantly lagged that of oil and other commodities. Key members of the IMF, like the UK under long-time Minister of Finance Gordon-Brown, have made repeated efforts to pass resolutions to approve disposal of IMF’s gold stocks. Whatever their ‘justification’, the IMF’s underlying motive remains the same - to aid and abet US Treasury efforts to contain the price. IMF stocks are claimed to exceed 3,200 tons. It is possible some ha ve already been ‘lent’. This would help explain continuing Cartel success in suppressing the price – not merely by large-scale ‘shorting’ through derivative markets, but by locating fresh if dwindling physical stocks as well.
Despite last year’s sharp pullback in oil from $78/barrell in May 2006, to $55 by late January 2007, the latter price still comfortably exceeds oil’s 1980 high of $40. It compares with a gold price of $650 on the same day, versus a 1980 high of $875. The two commodities have maintained a relatively close relationship for over 50 years. Based on their respective 1980 peaks, Gold should be $1150 an ounce. The writer believes it will catch up fast during 2007. It should easily outperform equities and commodities. Against bonds it will eventually be a ‘no contest’ as the FIAT system gathers momentum, pumping liquidity to stave off recession and counter market risk. Silver might nudge ahead of gold but it’s nowhere near as liquid and no longer competes in the same monetary arena. It will undoubtedly make a comeback but is more volatile and carries higher risk.
As one enters 2007 there is a prospective change on the horizon which some have suggested might help level the playing field between gold and FIAT. Under pressure from US gold coin specialists Blanchard & Company, the IMF was alleged to have agreed to instruct central bank clients to disclose the status of their respective gold holdings. ‘Gold in the vault’ might in future be distinguished from ‘gold lent out and sold’. It would be exciting if the IMF were ever to carry out its promise. The writer doubts it. If markets ever had proof that two thirds of stocks had physically GONE from central bank vaults – all 20,000 tons of it loaned out and sold – the measly 12,000 tons left would spark a panic rise in gold. It would then make little difference whether the banks chose to write these loans off or call them in. The gold would physically have passed into someone else’s possession, most probably hanging round the necks of Indian brides. Attempting to buy the s ame gold back would be futile.
The IMF is not that foolish. In a weekend edition of the Financial Times, January 27/28, columnist Kevin Morrison quickly published a denial on behalf of the IMF. THREE DAYS LATER a ‘panel of eminent officials’ chaired by former
Director General of the Bank for International Settlements, Andrew Crockett, recommended the SALE of 400 tons of IMF GOLD! The committee responsible included former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet and, to the writer’s great disappointment, SA Reserve Bank Governor Tito Mboweni. The bankers grab them all, don’t they? Unsurprisingly Andrew Crockett – according to a recent GATA letter – is currently “President of JP Morgan Chase International, the great gold shorter for the central banks.” -
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Um 8.30 war mein Termin angesagt, die Listen mit allen Namen und in welchen Gerichtssaal war von gestern, erstmal den Saal suchen.
Erst eine Stunde spaeter, nach lockeren Chat und Kaffee kamen die mit dem schwarzen Kittel in den Saal der haesslich aussah.
80% Schwarze Zuschauer die auf andere Faelle gewartet haben, eine Reihe fuer die weissen, der Rest fuer die schwarzen sorgte automatisch fuer Apartheid im Saal obwohl die schon laengst abgeschafft wurde.
Nach 3 minuten wurde der Prozess dann verschoben auf den 8. Maerz.
Der Staatsanwaltschaft fehlten noch ein paar Sachen und mein Anwalt bekommt erst am Montag die Anklageschrift mit Beweisen zur Einsicht.
Die muss er erstmal studieren und ein neues Geschraech mit mir fuehren fuer die naechste Runde.Wieder warten....
Erst am 8. Maerz wird dann entschieden ob der Fall vor dem High Court geht was schlecht fuer mich waere. Nur das Regional Court kann ein Urteil aussprechen, das Magistrate Court ist eine Vorstufe wo entschieden wird ob man mich offiziell anklagen wird falls genuegend Beweise da sind.
Es kostet halt alles Zeit und Geld fuer die Anwaelte und die Buerokratie hier ist nicht viel anders als in Deutschland.
Going through the motions, danke jedenfalls fuer Eure Unterstuetzung.
Gruss
Eldo
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Nochmals vielen Dank fuer Eure Glueckwuensche, ich melde mich hoffentlich morgen Nachmittag wieder im Board und schreibe wie die Verhandlung war.
Gute Nacht
Eldo
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SA losing 600bn litres of water
2007-2-15 13:46
More than 600 billion litres of piped water supplied for domestic use is "lost" each year as a result of leaks, inaccurate meters, failing to bill consumers and theft, Water Affairs Minister Lindiwe Hendricks said on Thursday.
In a reply to a parliamentary question, she said this represented close to a third of the water supplied to the domestic sector, and meant an income loss to the authorities of almost R3.3bn.
"(A total of) 623 million cubic metres of water is lost per year as non-revenue water, which translates to approximately 29% of the water supplied to the domestic water use sector.
"Based on the above figure, the total cost of non-revenue water to South Africa is estimated at R3 259m per year in direct cost," she said.
The amount of unaccounted-for water is only slightly less than the total storage capacity of the Theewaterskloof and Voelvlei dams, the two major storage reservoirs of the Western Cape, where water has to be sparingly used.
Hendricks said in her reply about 14% of this water could "be saved or recovered through the reduction of physical water losses, taking into account a 15% unavoidable annual real losses".
The balance could be recovered through addressing unauthorised consumption, sorting out meter inaccuracies, and reducing the levels of "unbilled authorised consumption".
The latter comprised "unbilled metered, and unbilled and unmetered consumption".
The department of water affairs was taking steps to prevent the losses, she said.
Almost three years ago, the department's former director-general, Mike Muller, warned that South Africa's major metropolitan areas were losing billions of litres of piped drinking water each year.
Briefing a parliamentary committee on the issue in May 2003, he attributed the losses to poor management and control.
The figures for unaccounted-for water suggested "poor management accounting of the system", he told MPs at the time.
Other than those losses that arose from the poor condition of pipes and inadequate maintenance, there were further losses because water was not being metered and billed.
The problem was exacerbated by illegal connections, Muller said.
SAPA
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We have seen the breakout predicted in the last Gold Market update, although so far subsequent gains have been modest as gold continues to be restrained by the strong resistance level shown on the 1-year chart in the $655 - $680 zone. Although we have seen limited gains so far following this breakout, it was nevertheless an important technical development that is viewed as marking the start of a major uptrend which is still in its infancy. The open question now therefore is whether gold will go on to break above $680 soon, which would be expected to lead to a rapid run at last year’s highs in the $730 area, or whether it will first react back towards the third fan line, which happens frequently after a breakout from one of these 3-arc fan patterns.
more....
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Shorts in the gold market are facing losses, particularly the Comex commercials. Their recent shorts increase has prompted the commercials to attack again attempting to force gold prices below support levels. Last week they added again by 11,053 or 8% from 135,611 to 146,664. Commercial shorts were the largest since 5/23/06, when they were 149,0003 when gold was $671.20 having over the two prior weeks fallen from $730. The commercials are making their big play and attempting a replay of last May. The momentum created by the physical buyers has been predominant. We think they can continue to control the game, we’ll see. Over the past month commercial short positions are up a huge 79.6% as gold has risen $40.33 or 6.6%. That is 202 tons of gold added to the market by the shorts, or a commitment of $4.2 billion by the shorts. We believe a major attack will come on Monday and Tuesday in an attempt to break support. If they are unsuccessful $730 will be tested.
If the commercials are successful $650-$652 will be tested. We see no major correction this time around.
http://news.goldseek.com/Inter…Forecaster/1171469040.php
Gold recently moved above important resistance at $650.
It’s now working its way through congestion in the $650 - $675 zone (blue lines). Based on the low readings of MACD and RSI (green lines) it looks as if it has every chance of taking out $675 and soon.
And then?
Then it’s back up to test the old May ’06 highs of $725.
As Gold moves ever higher the rhetoric and media attention (both positive and negative) will grow.
When Gold breaks to new highs the speculative juices will flow and many a NEW investor will be drawn in to the Gold Story.
What they will find is a massive amount of confusing and conflicting information.
Some analysts will be telling them to buy Gold the metal. Their argument, Gold Stocks will fall with all other Stocks.
Others will be saying buy Gold Stocks for leverage.
And yet others will convince them to steer clear of such a risky investment in Gold.
Who to believe?
When in doubt step back and take a look at the Bigger picture.
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Grandich Newsletter:
http://news.goldseek.com/Grandich/1171481516.php
Gold:
I don’t think I could be more bullish. I’m hoping $700 can be hit so I can still appear on ROB-TV. I’ve noted gold was in its best technical shape in years and sure enough, we’re seeing acceleration to the upside. Surprises should continue to be to the upside. GATA’s argument of manipulation gains more substance as each month passes. There appears to be a concentrated effort to cap gold, but it’s being overwhelmed by strong physical buying. Click here to see what I think happens to the shorters when all is said and done.