Beiträge von Eldorado

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BATTLE ROYALE DAY 3

The Cartel has had three major battles this year that they have lost. Gold soared $12 on the day of the State of the Union address. Gold climbed $7.8 on Jan 31 the day of FOMC meeting. Gold closed up $4.0 today (the USDX down .5 at the time of writing) on a day when President Bush held a Press Conference and Bernanke testified before the Senate Banking Committee.

With Paulson at the helm of the Treasury it is inconceivable that these battles were conceded voluntarily. These battles were lost with almost every resource being called upon. In recent commentary I said that a careful study of the market suggests that there has been a transformation from a David and Goliath market to the "Battle of the Titans". This is NOT a battle led by the Hedge funds as widely publicized. They do not stand up and fight on days when they know the Cartel wants a particular market outcome. They watch their black box trading models and they do not fight market trends. Amaranth tried to go against the Cartel in the natural gas market and went bust in the process.

There are some big players taking on the Cartel. But it appears they are very shrewd. The speculators and the hedge funds have tried to beat the Cartel in the paper game. You have to be delusional to think that you can have highly leveraged positions where you don’t have enough fiat paper to back your bet and win against the people who have access to a fiat money printing machine! The forces moving this market appear to have the funds to back their positions and that is how the Cartel, even with their access to an infinite amount of fiat money, can easily be defeated.

The Cartel does not have the gold to deliver on their massive short positions. Dennis Gartman has claimed that GATA is spinning its intellectual wheels by examining who could be buying or selling and that it is of no consequence provided the market is moving in your favor. I could not disagree more. If the gold price is being moved by a collective purchase of futures by the Housewives Investment Club of Boise Idaho and not by entities connected to the Chinese Treasury I for one would like to know about it!

To those who are disappointed that gold did not hold above $670 nor silver above $14 I would say that if my hypothesis is true what better way to bait the cartel than to throw them a few morsels to get then to stick their necks further into the noose. Why frighten them away in to retreat when they can be persuaded to give away some more Western Central bank gold at bargain basement prices? It seemed to work a charm; while the usual thugs were selling with a vengeance into the close some one was clearly buying all the way to the bell.

This appears to be a different market with a different breed of players on the buy side.
Cheers
Adrian

Adrian calls it the BATTLE ROYALE, and it certainly is. Each time gold takes out, or approaches the $668/$670 level, The Gold Cartel whacks it down. Today was like a yo-yo … not a good blood pressure day either...

So what’s going on?

*The increasingly desperate Gold Cartel (I sent them their "Desperation Cologne" for Valentine’s Day, as planned) does not have enough available central bank gold at the moment to meet the enormous supply/demand deficit. They are scrambling and buying time by hitting gold in the derivatives markets to keep the price from exploding.

*Demand is very firm at these levels, perhaps increasing spec interest in anticipation of a US move on Iran. That said, today’s sharp drop in the price of oil ($59 per barrel, off $1.06) showed no such concern.

*Outside market factors such as rising oil and a weakening dollar have been generally supportive at times. Although, since gold’s move of $66 off its low at the beginning of the year, NEITHER have done anything price-wise (net change that is).

*Gold is on the move BECAUSE increasing demand is overpowering The Gold Cartel’s ability to suppress the price.

*Perhaps some serious derivatives issues are looming. We already know that UBS reported serious gold derivatives losses in their last financial report (see More Gold Goodies below). If so, The Gold Cartel and allies are going to do all they can to keep the price below key levels, such as $670, in order to keep a full blown gold derivatives crisis from developing.

@Patrone...thanks, noch 26 stunden bis dort hin.

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In his latest commentary for Investor's Digest of Canada, Sprott Asset Management's chief investment strategist, John Embry, notes that gold and silver again delivered superior returns in 2006 but ordinary investors would never know it from the establishment news media. Embry predicts that these returns are only going to get better as the U.S. dollar disintegrates. You can find Embry's commentary, "Returns on Gold and Silver Surpass Most Others Again," at the Sprott Internet site here:

http://www.sprott.com/pdf/inve…rs_digest_feb_02_2007.pdf

Thanks, hier was interessantes wer nicht weiss wie und wo.

Storing Bullion Internationally

Safety Deposit Boxes and Depositories in the UK, EU and most importantly Switzerland

Introduction

The fundamental tenet of investment theory is diversification or in layman's terms to not have all the proverbial eggs in the one basket.

Thus a wide range of assets including a variety of equities with exposures to different market sectors and regions; a variety of different countries’ bonds; a diversified property portfolio; a cash component with sound international currencies and 10% to 20% allocation to gold and silver bullion would be considered a sensible, conservative and prudent properly diversified portfolio. The key obviously is to determine what amount or ratio of each asset class to have. In a globalised and increasingly integrated global economy this should be decided based upon global macroeconomic fundamentals.

The global macroeconomic, and indeed geopolitical, fundamentals are increasingly negative and thus merit a reduced exposure to equities, bonds and property in general. The anchor or base of the portfolio is the allocation to gold and silver bullion and a move to some 20% seems increasingly justified. We believe that the Perth Mint Certificate Programme is one of the best, most cost effective and safest ways for investors to own bullion. Especially for investors looking to store their bullion in a secure, wealthy, AAA rated offshore country.

The precious metals component of a diversified portfolio should be diversified also. And bullion owners should not allow themselves to be dependent on any one institution. This is why a combination of precious metal certificates, gold or silver bullion or numismatics in your possession and storage of bullion internationally with a secure and specialist third party should all be looked at.

Why Own Bullion and Store Bullion Internationally?

When investing in precious metals one of the most important things to consider is where to store your bullion. What type of facility or institution to store it with and whether it should be stored locally, nationally or internationally. The short answer is to store your bullion with the safest and securest facilities or institutions locally, nationally and internationally. Again the eggs in basket cliché is important.

Investors buy bullion primarily to insure and hedge against macroeconomic, geopolitical and particularly systemic and systematic risk. Systemic risk includes the collapse of a financial system, such as a general stock market crash, fiat currency crash and or a breakdown of our modern day fractional reserve and derivative laden banking system. Any of these would have serious ramifications and could lead to deflation, stagflation or hyperinflation in various jurisdictions and the collapse of the current global financial system. Systematic risk describes risks which the whole financial market or economy faces such as business cycles, terrorism wars, peak oil and or global warming.

Today in our globalised and massively interconnected financial world, a systemic or systematic financial crisis will likely result in a chain reaction involving waves of individual and corporate bankruptcies and large financial institutions would be at risk. In this environment, all the conventional investments – derivatives such as exchange traded funds (including the precious metal ETFs), stocks, bonds, property – will be seriously affected and marked down in price.

The massive creation of derivatives, what Warren Buffet calls ‘Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction’, and particularly credit derivatives has led to a huge increase in the dispersal of risk throughout the entire financial system. While risk dispersal has helped the system weather shocks so far this decade, some policymakers fear that if a really big crisis were to hit, this dispersal might create a "contagion" effect. That could make a crisis far worse and lead to a Depression. Jean Claude Trichet, the head of the ECB, recently warned echoed Warren Buffett regarding this risk.

Besides the negative effect these risks pose to investment portfolios, it is important to remember that most people’s primary wealth is the home they own and their financial wellbeing is dependent on their work and or their business. In a systemic or systematic crisis even these can be affected. Unemployment goes up and people can lose their job. One’s business can go bankrupt. One’s home can have negative equity and or can be foreclosed by the banks.

This is not alarmist doom and gloom mongering. Many people experienced exactly these economic hardships in the US in the 1970’s and in the UK in the early 1990’s. But thankfully it was on a small scale. People in Italy, Israel, Thailand, Russia, Ecuador, Mexico and Argentina are a few of the entire societies who have had currency crisis and systemic crisis in recent years. Thankfully, this has not been experienced on a mass global scale since the 1930’s.

There is increasing global systemic and systematic risk in the form of

- Geopolitical Instability and 'The War on Terror'.

- Rising Oil & Energy prices and Peak Oil.

- Growing realisation of the long term impacts that global warming will have on all societies and economies as clearly outlined in the Stern Report

- Overvalued and Plateauing Property Markets.

- Rising Interest Rates in the US and globally.

- Record & Unprecedented US Trade, Budget & Current Account Deficits.

- Record Consumer, Mortgage and National Debt Levels in the US & much of the western world.

- Increasing Pensions Difficulties with underfunded pensions and the 'Demographic Time bomb'.

- A depreciating and declining US dollar - the global reserve currency;

Increasing global investor demand for safe haven assets & Central Bank demand for gold in order to maintain full faith and provide stability to unstable currencies and monetary reserves.

These systemic and systematic financial and economic risks create political risks. Historically protectionism, trade frictions, capital controls, nationalism, radicalism, communism, fascism and militarism can result. Increasing diminution of civil rights in even the most liberal western countries must give pause for thought. These authoritarian trends generally become more pronounced in times of recession or depression.

These factors mean that having one’s bullion outside of the financial system is important. This can be either through personal possession or storage with a secure third party who can deliver the bullion upon demand.

However, these factors also mean that besides having one’s bullion outside of the financial system it is also important to have some of one’s bullion outside of the jurisdiction in which one is domiciled or is a citizen. This lessens geographic risk. For these reasons it is important that investors consider ‘internationalising their bullion’ to safe haven jurisdictions.

How to Store Bullion Internationally?

Safety deposit boxes in banks and specialist depositories can be used and allocated accounts in specialist depositories are optimal.

What is a Safe Deposit Box and what is a Depository?

A safe deposit box or safety deposit box is a type of safe usually located in groups inside a bank vault, in a secure room of a bank or post office or in a specialist depository. It usually holds important and valuable possessions such as important documents (wills or property deeds), currency and or precious metals that a person might be reluctant to leave at home due to fear of theft, fire, flood, tampering or other reasons. In the typical arrangement, a renter pays the bank a fee for the use of the box, which can be opened only with production of the assigned key, the bank's master key, the proper signature, or perhaps a code of some sort. Additionally, some banks are using biometric security to complement the already increased security procedures.

A depository is a place where valuable objects are kept or deposited for safekeeping or storage, e.g. a high security warehouse or vault for important documents, precious works of art, valuables, heirlooms, cash and bullion. Depositories also come in the form of the night depository of a bank or a bank chosen for the depositing of government funds but they more commonly refer to specialist facilities where very valuable items can be deposited for storage or safekeeping.

There are many specialist depositories in the US, EU and Switzerland which facilitate investors in this regard (many of which are listed below).

Where and in Which Country to Store Bullion Internationally?

Before looking at where to store bullion internationally there may be some who would rather have their bullion closer to home. This may suit those with smaller amounts of gold bullion or for those ‘who hope for the best but are prepared for the worst’ and want to be prepared for a meltdown scenario of a currency collapse and hyperinflation and want to own real money, gold and silver, that will retain or increase in value. It is important to have at least some bullion in one’s possession. They could consider a small local branch of a state, national or international bank providing the bank is highly solvent and or has a high credit rating from one of the international ratings agencies (which is not too many!). Knowing and trusting the local bank manager is also very advantageous. Some fear that in the event of a systemic crisis then deposit boxes in banks and financial institutions could be sealed and the bullion confiscated as was done under the Gold Confiscation Act of 1933 at the height of the Great Depression. It seems likely that in the event of such a crisis many bullion dealers pool accounts and depositories in the US might have their gold confiscated and might have their assets nationalized.

Safety Deposit Boxes in Banks

In the US, as of June 2006, Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. is the only bank in the United States to receive the highest possible credit rating, Aaa, from Moody’s Investors Service. Wells Fargo has 6,165 retail branches, over 23 million customers, and 167,000 employees.

In the UK, the ‘Big 4’ UK banks, Lloyds TSB, Barclays, HSBC and Nat West all offer safety deposit boxes to their clientele. As of September 2006 Lloyds TSB Bank plc was the only AAA rated bank. It is one of only two pure private sector banks in the world with the Moody’s Aaa rating.

In the EU, Rabobank is one of the few banks in Europe that the world's leading rating agencies have awarded the AAA rating - the highest possible rating available. Indeed, Rabobank Group is the only privately owned bank in the world with the highest possible credit rating from both Standard & Poor’s (AAA) and Moody’s Investors Service (Aaa); it is also ranked in the world’s top three safest bank by Global Finance magazine.

It has offices internationally but in the US it only has local offices in California where clients can “store important documents and valuables in the security of Rabobank's vault storage boxes.”

In Switzerland, Rabobank took over Bank Sarasin, which was founded in 1841 and one of Switzerland’s leading private banking institutions and largest private banks. Sarasin’s clients can use their safety deposit boxes.

There are many other secure Swiss banks who as a matter of course provide safety deposit box facilities to their clientele.

Safety Deposit Boxes and Depositories

In the US, many of our clientele have used the Delaware Depository (http://www.delawaredepository.com/) and some are beginning to use First State Depository Company (http://www.firststatedepository.com/).

Some of the safety deposit boxes and specialist depositories used by our clientele in the EU include:

England

Metro Safe, London Branches, England

http://www.metrosafe.co.uk/index.php

Bank House, Middlesex, England

http://www.bankhouse.com/

Austria

Das Safe, Vienna, Austria

http://www.dassafe.com/

France

Safety deposit boxes in Société Générale, one of which is Bvd Haussmann, Paris, France

Société Générale has credit ratings of AA (Standard & Poor's) and Aa2 (Moody's).

Switzerland

Zürcher Freilager, Zürich, Switzerland

http://www.zf-company.com

Safes Fidelity, Geneva, Switzerland

Tel.: +(41) 22-731-7890

VIA MAT International

http://www.viamat.com

Switzerland

Switzerland obviously remains the favourite for storing bullion internationally due to its tradition of non intrusive, non authoritarian, stable government, its combined benefits of privacy, strength and safety and its safe haven attributes. Say "Switzerland" and people throughout the world think “quality”, “security”, “safety” and "wealth." There are good reasons for this.

Robert E. Bauman wrote an excellent article for the Sovereign Society entitled ‘A Visit to Switzerland: The World's Most Trusted Asset Haven’, explaining why Switzerland remains the ultimate safe haven country. “For 300 years, as European empires rose and fell, Switzerland's mountainous topography, its official neutrality and its determination to defend its sovereignty have made it an island of stability. After 50 years of saying "no," the Swiss recently joined the United Nations, but they repeatedly have rejected European Union membership, rightly fearing EU interference with Swiss privacy and banking laws and even more importantly an end to their important military and political neutrality.

A few years ago, a national ballot soundly rejected a proposal to ease Swiss bank confidentiality laws. Current public opinion polls are much the same. A global survey of private banks found that the major attraction for a bank's potential customers is Switzerland’s reputation. Certainly, Switzerland's solid financial reputation explains why this nation serves as "banker to the world." In times of crisis, even greater flows of foreign cash enter Swiss banks, confirming the belief that Switzerland is one of the best places to safeguard cash and assets. Currently Swiss banks are estimated to manage at least one-third of the world's private offshore wealth.”

Of all the bullion storage options in Switzerland - and we have researched them all - we believe that the allocated accounts offered by VIA MAT International in the tax free zone of Zurich Airport are the most attractive in terms of cost and security.

VIA MAT INTERNATIONAL is part of Mat Securitas Express AG, of Switzerland, one of Europe's largest and oldest armoured transport and storage companies. VIA MAT INTERNATIONAL specialises in the international valuables logistics and storage business and offers a wide range of valuables services. For 60 years they have transported, stored, insured and processed valuables with great efficiency and diligence.

At their Zurich Airport facility which is in a tax free zone they offer the following services

· Domicile-to-domicile solutions to all important financial centers

· Storage for valuable goods in customs-free warehouse

· Customs clearance of shippings including neutralising, dividing and repacking

· Monitoring of transit mailings

Advantages of VIA MAT Zurich

· Excellent IT solutions with automatic data transfers to the airlines as well as to the customs authority

· A large fleet of armoured vehicles in Switzerland, GPS-monitored for pick ups and deliveries
· Flexibility - fast reaction times

· International experience and expertise
· Market leader in Switzerland and internationally
· Storage in secure depository in tax free zone in the safe haven country which is Switzerland

Don't delay in deciding what is the optimal offshore storage solution for your bullion and where to store it.
Decide on an offshore storage plan and location and order your gold and silver bullion as soon as you have done your due diligence.

Die 675 brauchen wir, dann kommen die Engel.

Bei HUI 350, dann glauben sie es.

Bis dort hin Nervenspiele..

http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?t=5s5bu7…%2Fdocs%2Fmw_02-14-07.pdf

http://www.marketwatch.com/new…%2DBBEC%2D778FE71384A3%7D

Served at The Man Ray Table:

Divorced From Reality.
February 14th, 2007

Professor von Braun
The Rocket School of Economics

"Has anyone noticed a deterioration in the quality
of all reporting over the last few years, whether it
be on politics, the Middle East or financial news?
Critical analysis is basically absent or it is covered
up or appears on some select non-mainstream website.
Financial reporting in particular is now dominated
by a handful of players such as CNBC, Fox news, the
Wall Street Journal and Barrons."

....Meanwhile the Goldilocks economy seems to be alive and well, the housing market is ‘soft’ but apparently a recovery is just around the corner, so they say.

But is it?

..Since August of 1971 gold quoted in US dollar terms has increased from $35 per ounce to its current level of $660, which suggests that "unofficially" it is still the favored principal unit of account and is likely to continue to remain as such.

Gold remains the central bankers second worst enemy, the first being of course themselves.

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...der deal mit Nordkorea ist auch lustig, Condi du bist die Beste.
Heli Ben liest Grimm's Maerchen heute Abend.

Good boy !

Schoen langsam geht mir das gehopse um die 666 am Wecker, da hast uns was eingebrockt GB.
Bei der Nummer kommen die Teufel vom PPT.
Bei 69 kommt der naechste Hoehepunkt bei dem habe ich nichts dagegen. ...nicht das ihr was schlechtes denkt.

Henderson is the biggest liar and crook as far as I'm concern.

Grosso did underestimate this guy who has more experience to sue people and companies.

The next round Grosso comes with new ammunition which will make Henderson dizzy for a change.

Koenigsberg is out of the picture, her track record shows she makes a lot of mistakes.

How much Gold did Henderson offer her ?

Justice should be done here. ;).... hopefully soon !

""First of all, if Newmont "freely gave" the data to Newmont,"" :D.....

What a nonsense, Ulfur.

The AQI shareholder obviously must comment this way, I understand.

Depending on the outcome I'll rub it in your nose, and you will rub it in my nose when the show is over.

A breakeven is enough for me at 1.16 CAD.

Lets wait.....the show is not over yet.

Did you look at KRY and GRZ lately ?

XEX

From the Aquiline BullBoard: (9.02.07)

Today Aquiline shares are down 21 cents.
This is the day after Aquiline's News Release of "some of the best drilled at Navidad to date" - 97.6 meters of 417 g/t Silver and 93 meters of 392 g/t Silver. Also gold and silver are up today.

THIS IS A SIGN OF A BEAR MARKET, when the share price drops on good news. If the share price drops on good news, guess what will happen to the share price on bad news.

Since its post-judgement high of $8.68, Aquiline is down 13% to $7.55.
In contrast IMA Exploration is up 49% from its post-judgement low (49 cents to 73 cents).

The market seems to re-evaluating the strength's of IMA's Appeal and the RISK to Aquiline of losing the Navidad Project. What will Aquiline shares be worth without Navidad?? ($1.50 to $2)

I think Aquiline's management realizes there is a real possibility of losing Navidad and are drilling like crazy, hoping the great drill results will drive up Aquiline's share price in the short term.
(What would you do if you had control of one of the world's largest undeveloped silver deposits for ONLY 6 to 8 months??? It sure would be nice to sell a few more million shares at $7++.)

From yesterday's News Release: "Drilling at Navidad under Aquiline management commenced on November 22, 2006 and is proceeding at a fast pace with 45 holes already completed."

----------------------------------------

it's mostly just banter, including myself. Anyone thinking they know the final outcome of this trial is kidding themselves.

Here's how I know (Supreme Court of Canada):

http://scc.lexum.umontreal.ca/…/2003scc19/2003scc19.html

In recent years our judge made a ruling on a case - she applied the incorrect principles and used her own views on credibility which she was not supposed to do, the BC court of appeals upheld her ruling by using the wrong principles in determining whether she was "clearly wrong". The supreme court of Canada came by and said, Ms Koenigsberg is "clearly wrong", the BC Court of Appeals is "clearly wrong". Judgment for Appellant and costs throughout.

If a trial judge can't even apply the right principles in the right case, and the BC court of appeals can't figure out mistakes of the trial judge, (and this only 3-4 years ago), what chance does a shareholder have?

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AQI are nothing but low-life claim jumpers.
IMA will win the appeal. The share price under AQI has been weak and unresponsive, reflecting the broad consensus that the judgement against IMA was incorrect and can not hold. The true SP under IMA ownership is more correctly put at 15 dollars Canadian. I can wait.

Tshwane metro boss suspended

2007-2-13 16:43

Pretoria

Tshwane metro police commander Simon Bebe and warden George Mokoena were suspended on Tuesday in connection with their alleged involvement in a shooting outside a tavern in Atteridgeville at the weekend.

Police have charged them, and two others, with attempted murder.

Metro police spokesperson William Baloyi said the suspensions were pending an internal investigation.

The shoot-out erupted during an argument between the metro police and a Midrand advocate and his 33-year-old friend, said inspector Paul Ramaloko.

Bebe was injured, as was the 33-year-old. They were taken to separate hospitals under police guard.

SAPA

Komisch, war noch nie da, CNBC zeigt einen Goldpreis von 671USD und bei Kitco steht er 665.70 USD

Irgendwas ist da faul..... dreht da einer am Rad, so einen grassen Unterschied sah ich in 15 Jahren nicht.

Natuerlich sagt man kein Wort ueber Gold auf dem Sender.

Aber wehe es faellt.....

Bloomberg TV zeigt 666.50 USD

Still smoking Batavia ?

.....Meanwhile, Mandisi Mpahlwa, minister of trade and industry, admitted on Monday that the government was concerned about crime scaring away tourists in the run-up to the 2010 World Soccer Cup.

Mphalwa made these statements at a media information session in parliament, saying it was cause for concern from an economic point of view.

"Perceptions on crime will indeed have an influence on people's actions and they might decide at this stage already not to come here in 2010."

He said the safety of tourists would receive special attention as part of the government's larger anti-crime strategy.

According to an instant survey done by a tourism magazine, the tourism industry already suffered huge losses last year due to crime. According to the survey's projections more than a million tourists might have visited the country if it wasn't for crime. Thus more than 125 000 jobs were lost.

http://www.24.com/news/?p=tsa&i=418176

The Dollar-Gold Relationship

We suspect that gold's best gains during the current secular bull market will ultimately come in response to the same sorts of fears that led to the dramatic 1978-1980 price surge. In any case, the point we really wanted to make is that gold never actually de-couples from the currency market because the investment demand for gold -- the only thing that really matters as far as gold's intermediate- and long-term price trends are concerned -- is inexorably linked to what's happening to the official currencies. Most of the time gold responds to trends in the dollar's foreign exchange value, but there are also times when it responds to changes in the general level of confidence in paper money regardless of whether the US$ happens to be a relatively weak or a relatively strong currency

http://news.goldseek.com/SpeculativeInvestor/1171382460.php

ELLIOTT WAVE GOLD UPDATE XI

Alf Field

Data Updated to 9 February 2007.

The near term target price for gold from the Teacup and Saucer base is approximately $760, a level that would accord well with a possible peak for the Elliott wave 3 of wave I, the wave that is presently underway. In Update X it was explained that the likely peak of wave I would be $870, from which point a 16% correction should occur. The expectation was that there would be 2 corrections of approximately 8% on the way from the $560 low to the anticipated $870 peak. The size of these corrections is estimated from the rhythms found in major wave ONE, which lasted from the $253 low in 2001 to the $725 peak in May 2006.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/field021107.html

I think the recent underperformance of the Gold shares versus the Gold price is signaling one last pull back in the Gold sector, which I am expecting to be the last call before we embark on the next significant rally.

OUTLOOK

There are three potential short term scenarios as I see it over the coming weeks and months:

Scenario 1:

The Gold price continues to rally and we get an unusual situation where the Gold price leads the Gold shares and the XAU breaks the intermediate term resistance trend line at about the 140 -145 mark to embark on a new significant rally. Given the past I see this scenario as unlikely.

Scenario 2:

The Gold price continues to run into resistance at around the US$650 - US$660 mark and embarks on another pullback which will initially see the precious metals shares sell off sharply, but then steady very quickly to a point where they will outperform the Gold price (Value for money will start to prevail). This will signal the beginning of a new significant rally. I have two downside targets for the XAU including the 125-127 mark and in a worse case scenario 115. If this consolidation pattern follows in a similar vein to the previous ones (2002/03 and 2004/05), I would be leaning towards this scenario 2 outlook.

Scenario 3:

The precious metals market gets caught up in a broad commodity sell off and/or a correction in the stock market, resulting in the XAU falling all the way down to the long term support line at around 95. I see this scenario as unlikely at the present time.

Intermediate Term Outlook

Over the intermediate term my next target for the XAU is around 230 towards the latter half of 2007 and early 2008 depending on how long it takes this consolidation to run its course.

more...

http://www.321gold.com/editori…nsen/schwensen021307.html

Dear Members,

I would like to start this week’s newsletter by saying that nature plays a vital role in the commodities market. If you have read my books, then you would have noticed that I always start with nature and climate predictions because things in the world can easily turn chaotic if nature is unsupportive. There is no human being who has power to control nature; neither politicians, scientists, nor the military. In the first newsletter for this year, I mentioned that there are indications of some natural disasters in 2007, and I would like to reveal them in detail. But before I do that, I would like to mention some predictions I highlighted in my last four books.

· The first one was in regard to a heat wave in Europe.

· In the section on Thailand in the 2004 book Page 66, I said that "bad news is indicated in the weather, where a natural disaster involving water will disrupt people’s life". The Tsunami came, and though I didn’t specifically name it, I said that water would bring a severe disaster in Thailand and Indonesia.

· On page 19, I said that "a hurricane will hit the USA in the east coast area around August. The hurricane will result in heavy damage and the people in the affected area should therefore brace themselves". Katrina came and resulted in heavy destruction.

Many other predictions about natural disasters have been fulfilled in the last twenty years but the current time is the worst. We might be approaching a very turbulent period and as I mentioned in the previous book, I had a horrifying glance of the black side of nature. Nature was turning onto the negative side due to the movement of Saturn, and I am afraid that these predictions could befall the world in the next twenty-four months.

Short-Term:

Cold in North America could be so bad that everything will freeze, and my prayer is that the supply of electricity and gas are not disrupted during this period. Indeed, the next 96 hours could be the worst for the northern parts of USA, CANADA and EUROPE. The most affected areas will be the North-Western and North-Eastern parts of the world. The currencies situation in China, Russia and other places where the cold season is high could become very serious, so one should take necessary steps if living in those regions. Traveling and communications could be affected and we must therefore pray that the period concludes without too much damage.

Once more, water will have a disruptive role for millions of people as well as animals. I see severe freezing where many seas and lakes in the northern hemisphere will become frozen. My appeal is to concerned governments and authorities to be vigilant and heed warnings by weather specialists and if necessary evacuate populations residing in the worst areas.

Medium Term:

There will be an unexpected and untimely storm season, with hurricanes pounding the eastern coast of the USA. Strangely, some Asian countries will also experience severe storms and many lives lost as a result.

Most of the natural disasters will occur as a combination of water and air. My intention is not to scare anybody, as it is my job to write about what I foresee, which is what I have been doing for more than 20 years. This has been a difficult journey for me in today’s modern world since the subject has faced a lot of skepticism, but courage, belief and accuracy have given me a stand.

I shall give more updates after the 96 hours are over, but will continue closely monitoring the next four months, as it is a very unhealthy period as far as natural calamities are concerned.

Here is a portion on nature from my last book, the ‘2004 World & Financial Prophecies’:

"When nature is happy, then we are safe; but when nature becomes unhappy, then the hostilities are unleashed. Not even the vast government resources, weapons, technology and money or tireless efforts of the authorities can save lives or protect us from the wrath of nature. This is why I always advice people to pray everyday to nature because nature is so generous and provides everything freely. For instance, we partake of vital necessities of survival like water and air without paying anything. Even the very land that we live on is free of charge: we are the one who divide and sell it. The sun is source of light and also shines upon us with no compensation required from us. I hope you understand what I am trying to say. Nothing is bigger then nature; we should give something back to nature in gratitude and appreciation of it abundant generosity. For instance we can plant more trees and unsure better management of our environment without causing any pollution to air and water. We should strive to prevent the destruction of forests, land degradation and the thinning of the ozone layer with CFC’s, consequently causing weather changes that bring about disastrous weather and inconsistent seasonal patterns.

I remember years back when I was in a small Indian town where no rain had fallen the rainy season had already started. I saw a group of people get together and start praying to lord Indra, the god of rain. These people danced and chanted and believe it or not, there was rain after a few hours. You may say that it was a coincidence but whatever your position, the fact is that there was the answer to the prayer and it rained. That day, I realized that everything is a god in itself. We can not live without water, air and light. Our bodies are formed from and dependent on nature for survival. Nature is within us and we are part of nature and alive because of nature. (Pg 17 "2004 World & Financial Prophecies)

Let’s talk about the world financial market because commodities are very closely related to nature. They are a part of nature since they come from nature. Changing weather patterns this year including heavy rain, freeze and heat wave could destroy crops and affect oil supplies and sea transport, and this could put pressure on the supply of some necessary commodities.

I also see a severe heat wave this year, therefore be prepared. I am giving these indications using a system I have followed for the last 30 years of planetary movement, and which gave me over 90 percent accuracy. Indications are that there surely will be natural disasters in the coming days and we must therefore pray and hope for the best.

Now here is this week’s newsletter:

Predictions for 12 to 16 February

Before I start the predictions for major commodities, I would like to alert you that this week will be very volatile. My indications might not be very accurate because this is not a great period as far as planetary combinations are concerned, therefore trade carefully. As a matter of fact I would be very happy if you only traded with a very small amount.

GOLD

This week the trend of gold will remain positive for the first four days. Short-term traders can therefore buy the position and hold until Thursday, while medium term and long-term traders should hold their positions.

Last week when the dollar was moving up, gold fearlessly walked with the dollar, which is one of the best indications that gold has given in the last seven months. This is what I was waiting for, but I also don’t like the new friendship of gold and oil, and would like to see gold moving up when oil moves down. That day will be the happiest day for gold investors because then, no power can stop gold from reaching $1000.

On Monday gold may trade weakly and it will be a great buying opportunity on weakness during the last hour of New York trading……

SILVER

Compared to gold, silver is going to remain quiet but it will still follow gold. On Monday during weakness, one must buy silver and hold…

COPPER

This week copper will be supported by gold and silver prices and could reach $263 on the higher side. I do not recommend any selling at this level. Furthermore, one can take a small position in buying, though as you all know my medium and long-term outlook is quite negative. Please therefore trade with a stop loss.

PLATINUM/PALLADIUM

Both commodities will trade sideways and I neither recommend buying nor selling in these metals as my long-term views are not optimistic.

STOCK MARKET

A great era of bull market for the USA market is on the way after a few months. Before that however, a sharp correction in the global equity market could shake up the investor community. It should however not surprise us, as for the last four weeks I have been talking of a severe drop in all major indexes coming either on or around 12 and 14 of February. Unfortunately both dates fall in this week and I therefore don’t recommend holding a big position in hot rising stocks especially financial, retailers and consumer companies stocks. On the other hand, related mining commodities and pharmaceutical stocks will perform well.

As I mentioned for the longer term, the DOW will reach 17,000 in the next one year and hence the sharp correction will be good news for people waiting to buy. Once this week’s correction starts as I see, do not hurry to buy anything because the corrections could be around 18 percent.

Wait and watch the situation on Monday and Tuesday, and start selling from Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning. If you see the markets getting weak, then add the short position continuously.

Those who don’t want to take much risk can build a hedge by shorting hot rising Asian markets as well as the European markets and buy the USA market because compared to the USA market the others will decline much more percentage-wise.

TREASURY BONDS

Last week bond prices went down and I expect the weak trend to continue. Therefore hold your short positions.

COFFEE

We recommended selling coffee at 130 and since then it has been trading down because Mercury is not in support. However, buying time is soon coming and I will advise you accordingly.

If coffee prices reach $112.80, then one can take a small buying position

COTTON

Cotton prices will trade sideways and I am therefore not recommending any new trade in cotton. There is no need to trade when something is sideways as there are many hot areas in which one can trade.

LUMBER/SUGAR/ORANGE JUICE

These commodities will trade sideways. Last week we recommended taking a small position in sugar, but you should get out from this buying position by Friday. Do not hold any position in the above mentioned commodities. Orange juice will trade with much volatility, therefore avoid any new position this week.

GRAINS

I see a correction in grain prices from Wednesday, so do not hold any long position. This correction could persist for two weeks, after which there will be a buying opportunity. Grains will trade with a lot of volatility on Monday and Tuesday, and any sharp rise or fall should therefore be taken as a buying or selling opportunity. As mentioned above, grain prices will finally come down on Wednesday.

One can look to buy wheat during the weakness.

OIL

Weather related news will dominate the oil market, but even the worst cold or bad weather related news will not help oil prices much. I see a correction in oil prices, therefore don’t hold or take any new position after Tuesday.

Natural gas will rise during this week. One can take a short-term trade in natural gas, but get out if prices move up more than seven percent.

RB Gas and heating oil will follow crude oil, and so we may see natural gas trading differently from oil during this week.

My daily update will guide you on oil predictions because I will be following the weather conditions very closely.

CURRENCY

Last week the dollar showed a very strong sign and gained sharply against the British pound as well as other currencies. This week I see a continuation of the rising trend except Monday when it could trade with huge volatility. If all currencies rise sharply on Monday, then book profit because during the day they may regain. Build a new position again on Tuesday.

I have been stating that the dollar won’t trade below $84 and so far it has been proven right. I am certain that in it won’t trade below $84 in 2007, and it is definitely great news for the dollar index.

During this week, the British pound and Australian dollar will continually remain weak. There will be a sharp rise in the Japanese Yen and the Canadian dollar on Tuesday as well as Wednesday. During these two days, the Euro and Swiss Frank will decline.

This week - Hold the buying position in the dollar index and hold the selling position in the British pound and Australian dollar.

I will try to send you a daily update if I feel it is necessary.

Next week I shall focus more on weather related predictions and write a new chapter on inflation. I promised to write about the Euro because I see some disagreement or dispute coming up among European nations, and this could give rise to uncertainty for the Euro. This week I am unable to write more concerning it, as at this stage I am focusing more on nature related predictions.

You could once again read the first week’s newsletter in regard to the 2007 trend:

http://www.mahendraprophecy.co…h.asp?Pyear=0&page=6#year

While I try to predict the trend as accurately as possible, it is not guaranteed that I will be 100% accurate: I am an ordinary human being like you but trying to gradually open the door to the future with the help of nature and the planets. I may never be able to reach the final stage of study, but I am sure that I will be able to reveal some hidden parts of nature.

Thanks & God Bless

Sharma Mahendra

IMMC.V wird auch noch nicht gehandelt in Vancouver, wann soll das passieren ? Ob sie bei mir schon eingebucht sind weiss ich auch nicht.

Mittlerweile gibt es 2500 Anzeigen gegen die Polizei wegen Brutalitaet gegen die Buerger die verhaftet werden. Man benutzt teilweise elektrische Teazer um Gestaendnisse zu erpressen. Mich wundert das nicht da man Schwarze die selber mal kriminell waren als Polizisten einstellt.
Aber wie es so geht, manchmal koennen sie sich selber nicht schuetzen.
Der vorletzte Satz erinnert mich an was, am Freitag stehe ich vor Gericht, die Einbrecher sind die Belastungszeugen vom Staatsanwalt.

'Cops can't protect themselves

'2007-2-13 08:38

Pretoria

A young policeman, who was the victim of an armed robbery over the weekend, said policemen could hardly protect themselves, never mind the public.

Sergeant Jonty Swart, 32, his wife Yolanda, 30, and four family members were attacked on Saturday night in their Pretoria West flat.

Swart, a police officer for the past 14 years, was about to unlock his front door security gate to let in his cousin, when he heard a voice telling him to open the door.

When he looked up, a man stood with a gun pressed to his cousin's head. Swart wanted to get his own gun, but he was afraid the gunman would shoot his cousin.

Swart unlocked the door and was pistol-whipped. Two robbers entered the flat and forced Swart and the others to lie on the floor. Their hands were tied behind their backs. They were assaulted and a curtain, which was pulled from the window, was thrown over them.

"They kept kicking us, hitting us and yelling 'you white policemen can't do anything'".

The robbers fled with R2 000 cash and other belongings worth R75 000.

Swart said the robbers even stole the wedding bands off his and his wife's fingers.

He said he didn't know how the robbers knew he was a policeman, and didn't understand their comments about white policemen.

"The police's hands in general are tied.

If I had shot (a suspected criminal), I would have been in jail today.
"I too, am now a statistic, a victim."

Beeld

Hi Lucky, kein Wunder jetzt haben sie die Rechnung, sie waren frech und teuer und jetzt will keinen mehr den Wein zu den Preisen.

Das ""Training"" vor der FWM ist voll im Gange, die ersten Warnungen werden nun offiziell ausgesprochen.

Beware Table Mountain!

2007-2-12 23:21

Cape Town

Beware Table Mountain and Sea Point.
Don't travel on the Shosholoza Mail. And, in Johannesburg, steer clear of Hillbrow.
That's what foreign governments are telling citizens wanting to travel to South Africa.

Trade and Industry Minister Mandisi Mpahlwa admitted on Monday that the government was concerned that crime could deter prospective tourists in the run-up to the 2010 Soccer World Cup.

Sheryl Ozinsky, executive chief of Cape Town Routes Unlimited, said crime alerts such as this should be taken extremely seriously.

"We must be pro-active in the tourism industry, and we must tell people what's being done to ensure their safety."

Mphalwa said it was definitely worrying, from an economic point of view.

"Perceptions of crime are definitely going to influence people's behaviour and they might, even at this early stage, decide not to come here in 2010."

He said the safety of tourists enjoyed special attention in the government's crime strategy.

Avoid minibus-taxis, French told

The crime alerts on various websites afford interesting insights on how the outside world sees crime in South Africa.

The French say don't open hotel doors for anyone except staff; sleep with your doors locked and be careful when using ATMs.

And, avoid minibus taxis.

In Johannesburg, avoid Hillbrow, Berea and Yeoville.

The United States warns that there is considerable street crime such as robberies and pick-pocketing.

Britain says South Africa has a high crime level that includes murder and rape. In Johannesburg, the advice is: steer clear of Berea and Hillbrow.

Visitors are also warned to take care on routes in and out of the Kruger National Park, where there have been hijackings.

Table Mountain

Cape Town's famous landmark is singled out for a mention, with a warning that there have been attacks on the mountain - some of them violent.

Canada has a warning for its citizens when leaving OR Tambo International Airport in Johannesburg: take great care.

Australia warns its citizens to be vigilant against high crime levels, including hijacking, theft... and ever-present pickpockets.

Die Burger