Beiträge von Eldorado

  • Wie geht es auf dem Goldmarkt weiter

    WHAT TO DO? OH, WHAT TO DO?


    After a week like last week many speculators (everyone's a speculator) are wondering what to do now. As a pure market technician who doesn't have a clue as to why the markets do what they do my only answer is always follow what the charts tell you. After all, the charts are the daily actions of all the experts in the market. They are most often right but do err on the occasion, no one is perfect. But what to look for? Very briefly, 2 or 3 things.


    Trend, always trend. If the trend is not going your way, bail out. There are literally dozens of trend indicators one can use. I use more than one but the basic trend indicator would be the moving average line. Above the line is good, below the line is not.


    Strength of the trend or price momentum. Again, there are literally dozens of momentum indicators but the one I like best is the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Momentum informs you of the strength of the recent price moves. Positive momentum good, negative momentum bad. Of course there are grey areas such as a decreasing momentum in the positive zone or an increasing momentum in the negative zone. One must do a little bit of brain process.


    Volume, the third thing to watch. Daily volume increasing with a rising price good, daily volume increasing with a falling price bad. Lots of nuances in between.


    These are the indicators I try to look at each week (plus others but this is not a technical course).


    Most investors rely upon information and/or recommendations from outside sources, usually their brokers or independent advisory services. As you can imagine these services can be anything from great to disastrous. In the end, as they all will tell you, or should, it is up to you to decide what to do with your investment or speculative capital. You have the final control and RESPONSIBILITY..


    I told you so, I told you so, see, I told you so.


    The easiest way to be proven wrong is just to say "I told you so" and see what happens next. However, two weeks ago I had this to say about a potential gold action, " ---- we could expect some still more upside followed by a several week rest period during which time gold will drop some 17% and then see a really, really wild ride to that $1575 projected level.". Well, so far so good. We're into that rest period that might take gold to the $620 to $640 level yet.


    And then a wild ride. It's during the rest period that one can start getting his act together for the next move. However, one must always remember that forecasting is very, very dangerous and not to take any forecasts as a given. That is why I prefer to wait, most of the time, for a new move to start and be on the right side of things from the start...... more


    http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/burak052206.html

  • Wie geht es auf dem Goldmarkt weiter


    Saccard


    ..... die haettest du besser vorher lesen sollen bevor du deine PM Aktien verkauft hast. :D


    Das letzte Buch auf deiner Liste hilft Dir nun zumindest seelisch weiter.


    Auch ein Trost !


    Ps: Die Gammon kriegst du niemals fuer 12 CAD, Wunschtraum IMO.


    Gruss


    Eldo

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Ich weiss es ist eine Menge, ueberfliege es einfach was dich nicht interessiert, Carlos. ;)


    Oder sollen wir weiter ueber Klodeckel diskutieren ? :D


    Momentan ist einiges im Arsch, auf gut Deutsch gesagt.


    Die Berichte oben schneiden an dass hier im grossen Stil manipuliert wird sowie vielen Investoren nun der Hintern brennt.


    Ich vermute es faellt eine Entscheidung in den naechsten zwei Tagen.


    Dann wissen wir mehr wo es lang geht in den naechsten Monaten.


    Ich halte weiterhin die Stellung und lasse mich von den PPT Gangstern nicht so einfach unterkriegen.


    Nur ueber meine Leiche kriegen die eine Aktie von mir.


    Die haben Glueck das ich keine Munition $$$ mehr habe. :D


    Viel Glueck bei der naechsten Runde in New York und Kanada heute Abend.


    Mal schaun wie der Eiertanz der letzten zwei Tage um HUI 320 und PoG 657 $ nun heute wieder ausgeht.


    Bis jetzt habe ich noch kein goldenes Ei verloren, wie schauts bei Euch aus ? :rolleyes:


    Ich weiss nur eines, wer es haelt wird es nicht bereuen.


    Gold fever has not yet hit the world's investors.


    This is still just the second stage of the bull market. ;)


    You may call it we have now the ""wipe out "" days.


    Give those bastards hell, however you can !


    Cheers


    Eldo

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    What's Behind the Global Stock Market Melt-down?


    By Gary Dorsch
    Editor Global Money Trends magazine
    May 23. 2006


    Do you believe in conspiracy theories?


    Sometimes they are difficult to refute. Such was the case last week, just after the Euro had soared towards a 12-month high of $1.30, and the British pound, itself ridden with large trade and budget deficits, stood mighty tall at $1.90, with traders setting their sights for $2 for the pound. The US dollar lost 7% in just six weeks against America's main trading partners, and was 28% lower since January 2002, to stand just 1% above its 1995 low.


    Then on Sunday May 14th, currency traders in London, picked up an obscure report from the UK's Observer newspaper, that indicated the International Monetary Fund was in behind-the-scenes talks with the EU, Japan, the US, China and other major powers to arrange a series of top-level meetings to tackle imbalances in the global economy, and address the dollar sell-off that was rattling global stock markets.


    Can Central bankers derail the "Commodity Super Cycle" and gold?


    It would probably take a sustained global stock market sell-off of 10% or more to knock the "Commodity Super Cycle" and gold off their four year upward trajectory. Evidence of a slowdown in the booming Chinese and Indian economies, caught in the downdraft of a global economic slowdown, and signs that G-7 central banks are tightening their money supplies in a meaningful way, are also pre-requisites for calling an interim top in commodity indexes.


    The catalyst for a sustained global stock market decline might be weaker US housing market. "In combination with rising interest rates, affordability is becoming much more difficult and therefore as you would expect some cooling in (housing) markets," said Fed chief Bernanke on May 18th. Up to 40% of US home loans were of non-traditional types such as adjustable rate and no-money-down mortgages in 2005, Bernanke noted. "Some people will soon be faced with adjustable rate loans re-pricing under less favorable conditions," added Chicago Fed chief Michael Moskow....... more


    http://www.321gold.com/editori…rtsalot/dorsch052306.html

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    These 'capitalists' often act harmoniously and in concert to fleece the people. "


    Go GATA!


    After a brief rally on the opening last night, gold was punished on into the Comex opening, falling at one point to $643.50.


    There was a confluence of influences precipitating the fall:


    *General liquidation of equities and assets around the world.


    *On that note was a 10% drop in the Indian stock market, which was closed for an hour …


    Morning Bill,


    I suppose you will have been alerted to the fact that the Indian stock market was suspended at 10% limit down in the early hours (your time) this morning. I have read that the Indian authorities are trying to wean the retail investor from gold in favour of more sophisticated financial products. Stock market actual closure must represent a bit of a psychological set back (like about ten years).


    I note that gold has been climbing from $440 to $450 in the last few hours. Is it the Indian retail trade sniffing for a bargain? One problem facing the cartel is that the effort and cost and risk associated with pounding the spot market does not give them any proprietary rights to be first in the bidding queue when the engineered downward spiral reverses, but if they seek to get back in to the market too late, then they are just that little bit more underwater.
    Regards
    Nicholas Biezanek


    India on alert for suicides after stocks slide
    Mon May 22, 2006 10:11am ET


    MUMBAI (Reuters) - Indian police are watching out for possible suicides by brokers and investors after a steep market slide wiped out billions of dollars in share values, officials said Monday.


    Policemen were keeping a watch near lakes and canals, possible places where people in distress could head to kill themselves. They said rescue teams were on alert.


    -END-


    *Stories like this one added to the general selling panic:


    Gold Declines in Asia on Speculation Five-Year Rally Has Ended


    May 22 (Bloomberg) -- Gold in Asia fell on speculation that a five-year rally in the metal has ended as investors deemed its rise to the highest level in 26 years was overdone.


    Gold futures in New York fell 7.6 percent last week, their biggest decline is almost six years. The drop erased $900 million of market value for the StreetTracks Gold Trust, an exchange-traded fund linked to the price of bullion. Gold had rallied 41 percent this year to $732, the highest since 1980.


    ``The consensus is that the bubble has burst,'' Nicholas Chung, a general manager at Tong Yang Futures Trading Co.'s international business team said by phone in Seoul today…


    -END-


    Good old pathetic Bloomberg; can’t wait to get in its gold licks.


    Then CNBC did a feature on whether "Commodity Fever" has ended.


    It is still early in this trading day and something sticks out. Silver actually went up on the day with gold in the tank, following Friday’s relatively good action vis-a-vis gold and copper, the biggest so-called bubble market of all, is only down a little over a penny.


    There is almost hysteria out there about the commodity market bubble. Article upon article relates how pension and hedge fund money has been chasing commodities, driving up the prices without thought to value … a giant momentum trade. There have also been numerous articles of late about the carry trade buying in the past which has begun to fall apart. Looming disaster seems to be the general mantra of the Planet Wall Street financial market press.


    Is this true and will commodity prices collapse, or does that assessment hold only a kernel of truth in it … and one which does not represent the true story of what is happening out there? One thing for sure, a soaring commodities market is not in the interest of most of Planet Wall Street, so anything to discredit the move higher will get their attention.


    Gold just closed and came back from the dead, and a $14 hit, to close slightly higher. Silver ran out of steam on the upside, but also managed to close higher after putting in what looks like a double bottom.


    The gold open interest fell sharply on Friday’s battering, sinking 9,645 contracts to 322,437. It now is around 50,000 less than at its highs and confirms once again the MIDAS analysis that this market is mostly about The Gold Cartel taking gold down so that they can cover as much of their shorts as possible.


    The silver open interest dropped 666 contracts to 109,591.


    The general gold talk continues to focus on the dollar, which makes no sense. Gold was battered until late in the day with the euro up .50. More importantly, the euro and British pound are close to making new highs, while gold is $90 off its high. The relationship between the dollar and gold has been zip for some time now.

  • Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    A Golden Loaf


    The Daily Reckoning


    London, England


    Monday, May 22, 2006


    ---------------------


    *** American dollar should start taking notes from the Argentine peso...A
    voodoo economy built on magic paper money...a boom begets bust...


    *** Fed chiefs, present and past, are covering their derrieres...a new
    global trend: Bankruptcy...our thoughts on buying gold...




    Much of the middle class was wiped out."


    So said our lawyer in Buenos Aires. He was speaking about the last
    financial crisis in Argentina.


    "Those who understood what was going on didn't lose a thing. We had our
    money in dollars or euros...with accounts in Switzerland or Miami. But
    when the government let the peso fall...and then put on controls to keep
    you from getting your money out of the bank while it was falling, you can
    imagine what that did to people. It's always the middle classes who
    suffer."


    Argentina is now on the mend. People are working. The streets are crowded
    and the restaurants are full. The peso, which was once worth as much as a
    dollar, is worth only one third as much. But in the last year, the peso
    has gone up. It is the dollar that is falling now.


    And who will get wiped out this time?


    We have been wondering. The popular illusion is that the Fed will manage
    the dollar down gently. Little by little, the presses will roll at the
    U.S. Treasury, dollars will pile up overseas, and the greenback will fall
    against foreign currencies - and gold - in a landing so cushioned that no
    one will notice. The dumb foreigners will simply wake up one day and find
    their U.S. dollars and U.S. bonds worth only a fraction of what they
    thought they were worth. America's debtors will get off scot free.


    Could it be that easy and smooth, dear reader?


    We venture a little analysis here. In the short run, as Warren Buffett
    puts it, the markets are a voting machine. People get any goofball result
    they want. Vox populi; vox dei. But in the long run, markets are weighing
    machines. The masses are left mute. Sola vox dei loquitur. Only God
    speaks. Only the fundamentals matter. Only the truth is heard.


    America's middle class has put their faith in various graven images: Ben
    Franklin, Andrew Jackson, George Washington - dead presidents printed on
    green paper. They have voted for more and more spending, more and more
    bread, more and more circuses, more and more foreign wars. They claim to
    be religious, but they put their faith in the princes and powers of this
    world - in jobs and credit...in the government. Their voodoo economy is
    built on magic paper money and directed by witch doctors. Everyone knows
    they make mistakes, but no one expects them to fall on their faces.


    And most of all, America's middle class counts on houses. Most have few
    assets beyond their own homes. They have no secrets accounts in
    Switzerland. They have no euros. They have no Picassos and no Bugattis -
    or Joe Camels. They have no gold. Even the little they do have - their own
    homes - are mortgaged more heavily than at any time in the past. A modest
    decline in prices would leave millions of people upside down - with
    mortgages higher than their house prices.


    Americans used to pay off their mortgages during their working years and
    then live in their homes, free and clear of debt, during their
    retirements. Typically, houses were then passed along to the next
    generation. Now, the house serves a new role. It is supposed to pay the
    bills from the cradle to the grave. Rather than savings or pensions,
    people are counting on the rising value of their own homes, not only for
    current expenses, but for those in retirement, too. Many people take out
    mortgages on their primary residences, says USA Today, in order to buy
    vacation houses. When they retire, they intend to live in their second
    home year round, sell their primary house, and use the proceeds to fund
    their golden years. Who is going to pay for all those houses left behind?
    Illegal immigrants from Mexico? Maybe.


    Don't wait too long, is our advice. Remember, voting eventually yields to
    truth. The truth is, houses are already so expensive in many areas that
    few people can afford them. And the foreigners look like they could wise
    up at any moment.


    Boom begets bust. A bust in housing would leave a lot of Americans broke
    at the worst possible time - just when their working years are coming to a
    close. A real collapse in the housing market would wipe out much of
    America's middle class - no matter what happens to the dollar.


    "Bay area home sales fall sharply," says one of yesterday's ominous
    headlines.


    More news from our currency counselor...


    --------------


    Chuck Butler, back from his trip to Las Vegas:


    "Overnight, there was some healing, with the euro trying to inch back
    toward 1.28. The Japanese yen, however, has been sent to the dark side of
    the moon by the Bank of Japan."


    Read more about the yen and the other global currencies in today's


    Daily Pfennig
    http://www.dailyreckoning.com/…tler/Articles/052206.html


    --------------


    Back to Bill Bonner with more opinions, thoughts and obiter dicta...


    *** "One Million in Britain Fear Bankruptcy," is the headline story on
    today's subway tabloid. Only a million? Surely the number will go up as
    the down cycle intensifies.


    *** In America, two headlines suggest worry among top officials: "Fed
    Chief Urges Caution on Mortgages," says one, from the Financial Times. The
    other comes to us from the Wall Street Journal: "Greenspan Expresses
    Concerns on Derivatives..." Fed chiefs, present and past, are covering
    their derrieres.


    *** And in Afghanistan and Iraq, things seem to go from bad to
    worse...bombings, drugs, murders. We recalled our own words from four
    years ago: No one goes to war in Afghanistan or Mesopotamia without later
    regretting it.


    *** Gold...gold...gold! Gold fever has not yet hit the world's investors.
    This is still just the second stage of the bull market. As foretold in
    this space, gold seems to be in a correction. We looked at a chart this
    morning that made us think the price should drop between $650 and $545
    before the correction was over. But what do we know?


    All we know is that when the voting stops and the truth-telling begins,
    gold is likely to be a lot more valuable - in dollar terms - than it is
    now. We are hoping the price falls below $650. We will buy more.


    *** Today's the day. Addison and company are on a wild pork chase in
    Washington this afternoon with a documentary crew. Heh. Heh. Good luck...