Es sind wohl weitere Probleme zu erwarten...In diesem Interview wird das Dominion-Projekt als unwirtschaftlich dargestellt. Der Kurs zeigt weiter Schwäche, scheint mehr zu sein als bis jetzt gedacht. Das könnte übel werden, wenn man der These folgt.
Grüße
Barry Sergeant: Investigations editor, Moneyweb
21 February 2008 23:09
MONEYWEB: Well, Barry Sergeant, the investigations editor here at Moneyweb has come into the studio. Barry, you've got quite a few thick documents with you. We heard the news today that Neal Froneman has resigned, and they've cut the output forecasts for 2008 at Dominion by 32%. What's going on?
BARRY SERGEANT: Geoff, ja, this is a bit of a rough story, hey. It's not pretty. There was, let's say, the chances of a pretty ugly story breaking out quite soon about what's been happening at Dominion .
MONEYWEB: Now, Dominion is the uranium mine in Klerksdorp?
BARRY SERGEANT: Ja, it's the flagship of Uranium One. The market's reacted pretty badly in Toronto. The stock price is down 21%. So in the past 12 months you've seen a stock worth $9bn is now down to about $2bn. And, ja, I brought these huge documents in here just to show that I'm looking at some real numbers. The competent person's report, CPR, was done for Uranium One by SRK Consulting, and it's dated 26 October 2006. We phoned them today and they cite confidentiality. I've got a thicker document here, a very similar thing, a CPR done by Anglo American, one of the erstwhile owners of...
MONEYWEB: [Overtalking] Now this was done when they basically got sold.
BARRY SERGEANT: Ja, 13 September 1996. And this valuation cost about R20m - you know, it's Anglo American, they don't mess around. They want to know the whole story before they make a decision. Now, fortunately the world's not waterproof, so we've got a pretty good idea of actually what's going on at Dominion today.
MONEYWEB: What is going on?
BARRY SERGEANT: What's going on is that the grades, the uranium grades and the gold grades - it also produces a bit of gold - are nowhere near what was in the CPR from SRK, and I'll just give you a couple of numbers. If we use the SXR data, which is available, which is based on the SRK data, then they reckon they're getting a recovery grade of uranium at 440 grams a ton.
MONEYWEB: So, for every ton of ore they're mining, they're going to get 430 [440] grams.
BARRY SERGEANT: That's what they're going to recover.
MONEYWEB: Ja.
BARRY SERGEANT: In the plant. There's a lot of other numbers. You know, your mine grade is much higher, but then you get dilution because of waste and in the plant your recoveries are affected by a number of things, and we'll get on to that in a few seconds. If you take the industry average in South Africa - remember AngloGold and also Harmony, Gold Fields, they mine uranium - if you take what's available from Uranium One and you blend that into the industry average, you would get a South African average of 310 grams of uranium oxide a ton.
MONEYWEB: So it's lower than what was expected?
BARRY SERGEANT: Well, the industry average in South Africa is a lot lower than what we've seen from SXR's SRK data, which is 440. So, we're already down to about 310 grams a ton. If you take the Anglo American CPR, this is now for Dominion, it's 210 grams a ton. Now, what I can tell you is that last month, January, the recovered grade - we'll try and stay on the same numbers, at Dominion - was 120.
MONEYWEB: So, their forecast in the Competent Person's Report - they were expecting to get 480-odd, last month the got 120.
BARRY SERGEANT: So if you take the published data that we know from Uranium One on Dominion, they would be making a monthly profit of ±R11m.
MONEYWEB: If they were getting 480.
BARRY SERGEANT: Ja, If you then say, no, no, no, those numbers are too high, they came from SRK, and use the Anglo American estimates, you're going to be getting a loss of R25m a month. Right. The January loss, the actual loss at Dominion was ±R60m.
MONEYWEB: For the month of January.
BARRY SERGEANT: Ja, R60m. And to put this in some kind of perspective, if you take two variables, your rand/dollar, your uranium oxide price, which is ±$75 a pound at the moment, and your other variable, your grade, you ask the question what does Dominion need today just to break even? It would need a rand/dollar exchange rate of R32 to the dollar. If you leave the rate where it actually is today, and say "what about the grade?", that would have to go to 1 100 grams a ton.
MONEYWEB: And it's sitting at 120.
BARRY SERGEANT: Ja, and if you leave the grade where it actually is and the exchange rate where it is, they would need a spot uranium oxide price of $280 a pound, as against $75. Now, I'm stressing this is all industry information. But I wouldn't be using the information unless it was coming from persons that are absolutely familiar with what's been happening at Dominion. There've been other spats breaking out in the background. The civils at Dominion were done by Bateman. The high-technology stuff, the plant and so on, the autoclaves and so on were done by Bateman Israel. Now, there's been a problem going on there, because if you design a plant to take a certain grade, this applies to any kind of mine, and the grade is very different, the plant kind of freaks out. It's like you don't put a frog in a liquidiser.
MONEYWEB: Unless it was designed for frogs.
BARRY SERGEANT: Yeah, exactly. And I don't imagine anybody would design such a liquidiser.
MONEYWEB: Exactly.
BARRY SERGEANT: So what we're talking about here is an operation which has been subsidised based on the information. And, despite the SENS announcement today, which tries to give a pretty upbeat picture for Dominion, this looks like it's a deadly story and its going to be a breakdown. And then we've got to start asking questions about disclosure. How long did management know that the situation was in place, and why didn't they bring it to the market's attention? Not that they have, not that they have. None of these numbers are in the market's face at this stage.
MONEYWEB: Where to from here?
BARRY SERGEANT: Well, that's going to be anyone's guess, because this is a total disaster, this is catastrophic, this is cataclysmic. And it's going to raise all kinds of regulatory problems, not only in Johannesburg but also in Toronto. And I don't think we want to go into the kind of image damage that it‘s going to do to South African stocks, once again. This is not the first scandal of this size that we've seen.
MONEYWEB: David, not...
DAVID SHAPIRO: [Overtalking] Is this a Milne & Erleigh-type situation, is it salting?
BARRY SERGEANT: Not so much salting. I mean, David, remember in year 2000 the uranium oxide price was $7 a pound and...
DAVID SHAPIRO: But I mean, if you're talking about grades of 440 grams per ton versus a recovery of 120 - I mean, how did they get to the 440? Was that in a effort to attract shareholders, was that...
BARRY SERGEANT: It's in this SRK document, and two of the authors who signed this, they're both eminent scientists and mining engineers, etc. One of them has resigned from SRK. And, as I said earlier, we couldn't get SRK onto the radio. I believe Uranium One was going to come on the radio, and they're...
MONEYWEB: In flight and we suddenly couldn't talk to them again.
BARRY SERGEANT: I guess, if I was one of those guys I'd also be on a flight.
DAVID SHAPIRO: Old Neal's gone from villain to hero, back to villain again. Unfortunately.
BARRY SERGEANT: Ja, and stepping down. If you read the SENS announcement, there's no reason given whatsoever for the stepping down, so...
MONEYWEB: What's going on then with Aflease Gold ,if he's still going to be the head of that? Is there any way to judge yet, or is there just too little information in the market as to what's going on?
BARRY SERGEANT: Well, you know, if I gave you the numbers a Dominion for what's happening with the gold recoveries, the story is just as disastrous. So, let's not even go into Aflease Gold, because this is like a step-level thing. Deal with the big things first, try and get this information in the public domain. This is investment money we're talking about here, it's shareholders money, and they've been sold a story which is turning out to be very, very different from the actualities. And let's not go into the number of employees at Dominion that have been told to shut-the-something up. This is quite a tough story.
MONEYWEB: Well, let's hope we can get some sort of information out of the company soon, and hopefully we'll get some answers. David, not a pretty story.
DAVID SHAPIRO: No, it isn't and, you know, we've grown to like Neal and it's been a success story, and we just hope that there's some explanation for this. You know, I'm not going to doubt what Barry says but, I mean, this could, as he says, be disastrous. You know, we've already had to deal with Kebble-type characters in the mining market here, and the last thing that we want for our own credibility is further news of this nature.
http://www.moneyweb.co.za/mw/v…ge55?oid=191882&sn=Detail