Hallo Lucky,
so sehe ich es: ich finde es gehört mal dazu die Sache ironsich zu durchlöchern.
Es fliessen hier schon bald wieder die Infos ungefiltert bierernst herein, keine Sorge.
Eldos Stil ist natürlich ganz anders, aber das was hier geschieht, ist deshalb nichts Schlechtes. Ist doch mal interessant, was passiert, wenn die Leute hier sich verselbständigen! 
Nur für den der über sich nicht mehr lachen kann, ist Ironie ein Folterinstrument.
Für die andern Befreiung.
Momentan gibts wenig News also überwiegt der Spass.
Hier dennoch was Neues: der aktuelle Tom Szabo ...
ZitatAlles anzeigenMARCH 22 2007 12:00PM - Silver and gold were able to maintain most of yesterday's after-hours gains following the Fed announcement that it would leave rates unchanged, even as the dollar recovered most of its respective losses within the past hour (now trading at the same level as prior to the Fed release). As noted yesterday, the precious metals do not need the dollar to fall by a substantial amount before they can rally to challenge last year's high, although a strong dollar will probably cap whatever move is currently in store for silver and gold.
The picture remains positive for silver, with combined COMEX and silver ETF (SLV) holdings climbing over 250 million ounces for the first time yesterday as the COMEX saw registration of more than 2 million ounces of warehouse bullion. The COMEX build-up may be in anticipation of long futures standing for delivery, but it is probably not a factor for the March contract which currently has an open interest of just under 3 million ounces. The next prospect is May delivery, which at this pace could turn out to be a doozie. In any case, 250 million ounces is a nice amount of visible above-ground silver, and as CPM Group's Jeff Christian just pointed out, it may not take a slew of additional demand to propel silver prices much higher. Indeed, Christian estimates that just 20 million ounces of additional ETF silver could drive the shiny metal's price to $20 per ounce. While this is quite possible, if it does NOT happen, then CPM Group should be prepared to publicly up its estimate of hidden but available stockpiles of silver (which, nonetheless, the ETF is apparently having little trouble bringing out of hiding).
Another encouraging sign is that even as the latest metal rally has unfolded, both COMEX gold and silver open interest have continued to fall.
Further encouragement comes from the equities, which have underperformed bullion as stock investors seem to be bored and disinterested at the moment. Judging, however, by the number of analysts turning warm on gold and silver lately (see all the recent postings under "Silver Investment & Speculation Strategies"), the masses could be on the verge of a jubilant return to precious metal stocks. I myself have found it difficult in the past few days to keep an appreciable amount of powder dry. In fact, I have had a strong urge to turn my short term mental flag from "caution" yellow to "full speed ahead" green over the past few weeks, but I haven't pulled the trigger because I don't know if my recent courage is the result of greed (chasing momentum) or a bona fide realization that silver's prospects have greatly improved (the technical picture, as I keep mentioning, has been excellent for a number of months even as the fundamentals have largely remained corked up). In retrospect, had I turned officially positive last fall on the short term prospects for silver, I could have bought more of the best silver and gold stocks at substantially lower prices than today. The lesson here is that price action trumps the need for external confirmation in the short term. Cyclical rallies and pullbacks don't always need a reason.
On the other hand, many quality companies are still relative bargains today (while the prices of numerous speculative issues are actually lower than they were last fall) so a strategy of careful, cautious accumulation is probably not a bad one right now. I personally continue to consolidate away from the more speculative plays in favor of high quality, high liquidity shares under the assumption that the latter will outperform over the next few months while at the same time providing wider berth for profit-taking opportunities.
Turning to the basis, the late rally in silver and gold yesterday turned contango to backwardation as expected, with gold taking a turn tighter. My experience so far is that when silver and gold are in contango, silver is generally tighter but when they are in backwardation -- which has always been a very temporary phenomenon even during the late 1970's and early 1980's -- gold is tighter. Indeed, today's basis as measured by intraday prices has returned to contango.
There is a special reason to keep an eye on the basis right now because this time last year the basis in both gold and silver started to behave strangely while the spreads in futures (silver in particular) contracted. Should we get signs of a similar situation developing this Spring, a calendar spread in silver futures, say long May or July 2007 and short December 2008, could become a virtual cash machine. This is a variation of the "bull in bear's skin" play publicized by Prof. Fekete, but one which requires vitually no professional trading experience (or money, for that matter) to execute. Indeed the beauty of using such a calendar spread on silver in particular is that there is virtually no risk of a sudden flood of metal to the market which might depress only spot prices and therefore turn the spread against the speculator. The same cannot be said for any other commodity or even gold since "central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities" as Greenspan has warned the Hunt Bros. wanna-be's. More on this opportunity later.
Deshalb, meine PM Prognose für morgen (i like it):
- Ich habs nicht nachgerechnet, aber das wäre das erste, was ich nachrechnen würde, bei einer Aussage, die so etwas über eine Distanz von mehr als 20 Jahren behauptet. 
![:]](https://goldseiten-forum.com/wcf/images/smilies/pleased.gif "Freude"){kind=small}
