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Empires are expensive. Bread and circuses at home...foreign wars. Eventually, the bills grow so large they can’t be paid. After the Roman Empire peaked out in the second century, its emperors repeatedly staged financial schemes like Project Zimbabwe. Until then, their monetary system had been based on gold and silver coins, which acted as a restraint on inflation – the mints could turn out only a limited supply of coins. But then, Emperor Aurelian decreed that his coins were two and a half times as valuable as their actual worth, effectively jacking up the money supply by 250% overnight!
With more than $70 trillion in the hole and most of that money owed – in the form of Social Security and Medicare benefits – to voters at home (and the rest to nervous foreigners), the American government might want to consider Aurelian as a model. For, as in Rome or Harare, the financial authorities can get away with almost anything. And now, the temptation to inflate has grown just too great...irresistible, in fact.
But is it that simple? If it were, wouldn’t it be easy for you to know what to do, dear reader? Just take out the biggest mortgage over the longest period possible...and wait for inflation to reduce it to nothing. We remember how we envied people with old 6% mortgages in the 1970s. When inflation rates headed over 10% in the late ’70s, they practically got their houses for free. Could the same thing happen again?
Corporate America seems to be thinking along those lines. A Wall Street Journal piece tells us that businesses are taking on more and more debt. Money is cheap, they reckon. Get it while you can.
Bonds are going up. The yield on the 10-year T-note is only 4.83%. Mortgage rates, too, have gone down over the last four weeks.
Declining lending rates are not usually a sign of inflation, but deflation, which is why the strategy of taking on more debt now may be premature. Yes, in the long run, inflation may lighten your debt load and make you feel like a financial genius. But in the short run, the load could grow a lot heavier...making you feel like the village idiot.
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