Beiträge von Vanescent

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    Zitat

    Original von Atze
    so langsam muss denen doch mal das Pulver ausgehen X(


    Ne noch nicht, sie sparen nur Munition für die nächste Woche.
    Am 12.12. ist Fed Sitzung.
    Ich meine, diese Woche bleibt es trotz Vollmond noch ruhig...
    Wait and see.


    Gruss



    Nachtrag:


    Oder wurde ich gerade von der Realität überholt und es geht doch los :D

  • Wie geht es auf dem Goldmarkt weiter

    Bin auch der Ansicht, dass das PPT am Montag ziemlich im Stress sein wird.
    Nicht nur muss der Goldpreis geprügelt werden, um den Dollar nicht noch weiter absinken zu lassen, sondern auch der Aktienmarkt muss vor einem möglichen Crash am Montag bewahrt werden.
    Die ganze Situation hat doch starke Ähnlichkeiten mit der Lage kurz vor dem Schwarzen Montag 1987.


    Gruss

  • Wie geht es auf dem Goldmarkt weiter

    Zitat

    Original von SilVisconti
    Ich habe sogar schon von 350 und 370 Billionen (Trillions) USD an Derivaten weltweit gelesen......8o


    Vielleicht hast du es hier gelesen...


    The biggest bubble of all - derivatives Trading Soars to $370 Trillion – it will be the root cause for global depression
    Alan Hershey
    Nov. 17, 2006
    An interesting data came out from the Bank for International Settlements. The global market for derivatives soared to a record $370 trillion in the first half of 2006. It is the highest ever and the bubble is bigger than any one can imagine.


    The biggest bubble of all


    Nur das lässt sich locker mit einer einzigen 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 Pengö 1946 (100 Million Trillion Pengö) Banknote bezahlen und es sollte sogar noch was übrig bleiben... :D (Siehe Walter K. Eichelburg, Hyperinflation).
    So schlimm ist es also noch nicht... :D


    Gruss

  • Wie geht es auf dem Goldmarkt weiter


    Vollmond?
    Vielleicht erhält da der arme Mond noch ein bisschen Unterstützung... :D


    Gruss


    A new battle is set to emerge in global metals trading with the New York Mercantile Exchange set to launch metals contracts for the US, European and Asian markets that will be traded only electronically.


    Nymex will take on the Chicago Board of Trade, the Tokyo Commodities Exchange (Tocom) and the London Metal Exchange with the new contracts in gold, silver, copper, aluminium and zinc to be launched on December 4.


    ...


    Nymex lines up metals trade battle

  • Verfall des Hegemon USA

    Der Immomarkt in den USA scheint immer mehr zum Problem zu werden und dürfte neben den Hedgefonds zum Verfall des Dollars beitragen.


    Gruss


    In der MSM mehren sich die kritischen Artikel:


    Economist at Morgan Stanley, Stephen Roach says,"I think we are coming to a critical point in the global business cycle, where an unbalanced world needs to get rebalanced and I think the key mechanism of that rebalancing will be slower rate of consumption by the US consumer. I think that's been triggered as we speak by the bursting of the US housing bubble. I think it has global consequences for those economies that are heavily dependent on the US consumers."
    ...


    'World economy may disappoint next year'


    Fears of a recession mount as the number of homes being built plummets. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports
    US housing construction tumbled 14.6pc in October to a six-year low and building permits slid for the ninth consecutive month, dashing hopes for quick end to the economic slowdown. Yields on 10-year Treasury bonds fell sharply to 4.6pc on recession fears, though the Dow Jones index of leading stocks continued to probe record highs - a contradiction that left analysts scratching their heads.
    ...


    US housing 'caught in death spiral'


    WASHINGTON -- US housing starts plunged to a six-year low to exacerbate fears for the outlook of the world's largest economy, according to data Friday.
    New home construction projects tumbled 14.6 percent in October compared to September to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.486 million units, the Department of Commerce said.
    They were down 27.4 percent from October 2005 to stand at their lowest point since July 2000.
    Economists said the housing slump had worrying implications for consumer spending in the US economy, which has slowed markedly this year already
    ...


    Fears on US economy mount as housing starts dive

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    Das Fazit liest man gern, was vorher kommt, na ja....


    Gruss


    Summary: Dollar Breakdown to Ignite Gold Market


    We expect the next few months to be very good for gold and silver investors. We have been adding to our positions over the past week and will continue to do so in the coming few weeks. We have posted several articles about the gold stocks we like and silver stocks we like, but this is just our opinion and should not be taken for investment advice. Please perform your own due diligence before investing. We will post a summary of the returns of our stock picks at the end of this year.


    Dollar Breakdown to Ignite Gold Market

  • Langsam platzt die USA Immo-Blase!

    Und aus Bill Cara’s Blog von gestern (Ausschnitt):


    The U.S. housing industry is in recession, and buyers are delaying purchases. There are apparently 870,000 unoccupied homes that must be cleared before pricing and unit demand will accelerate.
    The U.S. Homebuilding Equity Research Group of UBS working with the company’s Chief U.S. Economist has produced an important study, which was published Nov 6. Download UBS Assessment of U.S. Housing Market.
    In this report, UBS introduces a new proprietary “Housing Signposts” forecasting tool, which quantifies the number of new homes needed annually as 1.55 million in 2007 (revised down from their previous forecast of 1.73 million) and 1.65 million in 2008 (revised down from their previous forecast of 1.80 million).
    This is a netting of the 2.0 million demand less a working down of the available over-supply.
    In addition, UBS is forecasting a further 10 pct decline in home prices over the next 12 months, which is required to remove the glut after a recent 4 pct price drop off peak prices has not solved the task.
    …


    Gruss

  • China will nun Dollars in Dollars diversifizieren

    Ja, die Chinesen sind brutal in der Falle, auch meine Meinung.
    Und wenn sie ihre wie auch immer gearteten Dollarreserven umschichten wollen und so etwa einen Dollarcrash auslösen sollten, dann werden sie stärker von der Krise getroffen werden als die USA.
    Die USA verfügt (immer noch) über die Weltreservewährung, was der USA schon einen Vorteil verschafft.
    Z.B. könnten zwei verschiedene Währungen (Inland $ und Petro oder was auch immer Dollar) geschaffen (wie etwa während dem Vietnamkrieg Greenbacks und Redbacks) und diese verschieden bewertet und gehandhabt werden.
    Im Krisenfall könnte die USA zu protektionistischen Massnahmen greifen und die Importe so verteuern, dass die einheimische Industrie wieder konkurrenzfähig würde.
    Klar wäre das auch für die USA schmerzhaft, da die Industrie erst wieder aufgebaut werden müsste, die ins Ausland verlagert wurde.
    Aber gerade das würde wieder neue Arbeitsplätze schaffen.
    Und da die USA relativ autark (ausgen. Energie, aber da hat China ja nichts zu bieten) ist, ist für sie die Auslandnachfrage nicht in dem Masse wichtig wie für China.
    In China hingegen würde Massenarbeitslosigkeit zu Chaos führen.


    Gruss

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    Auch positiv gestimmt ist Jason Goepfert


    Recently the Yen has perked up against the dollar, something that makes gold bugs often sit up and take notice. Yen and gold have enjoyed a cozy relationship this year - the correlation between the 5-day rate of change in Yen futures and the 5-day rate of change in gold futures is .6 over the past six months (out of a scale of -1 to +1). That's quite high and unlikely to occur by chance.


    Further supporting a potential new leg up in precious metals can be found in the positions of large speculators in gold and silver futures. While this data is getting somewhat stale (new data comes out this afternoon), what we can clearly see from the chart below is that trend-following speculators had greatly reduced their long positions in the past few weeks.
    ...


    This rare Gold setup usually leads to large rallies


    Gruss

  • Verfall des Hegemon USA


    Hallo LF


    Da hat die Schweiz richtig gehandelt!
    Besser wäre es gewesen, sie hätte die 1'300 Tonnen Gold behalten.
    Das sage ich als Schweizer, aber das ist ein anderes (heikleres) Thema...


    Wie der unbegrenzte Reservecharakter des USD "erzwungen" wird, ist im folgenden langen, aber lesenswerten Artikel gut beschrieben.
    Der Zusammenbruch ist so weit nicht entfernt, wenn man dem Artikel glauben darf. Nur ob das was ändert, oder ob wir dann nur wieder den "alten Wein" in neuen Schläuchen serviert bekommen....


    Death and Resurrection of the US Dollar


    Auszug:
    ...
    Today, excessive printing of US dollars has passed the point of no return. Monetary collapse can no longer be avoided. At best, it needs to be managed. Naturally, the US elite power Establishment and its key allies in the United Kingdom and the State of Israel are not stupid and they will not allow a hyperinflationary crisis to collapse their economies. There are various, creative and innovative ways of re-directing and detouring monetary catastrophes so that they hit somebody else somewhere else, and there are ways of ensuring that damage control at home and at our friends’ homes is kept at acceptable levels. It is precisely this “Plan B” which is presently on the drawing boards in the key think tanks headed by the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations, the London-based Royal Institute of International Affairs, and the Trilateral Commission.


    It even appears as though “Plan B” consists of letting the present mass of US Dollars continue growing for a bit longer, all the way up to the brink of collapse, taking advantage as much as possible of the fact that this serves to ensure that the rest of the world finances the US Budget and Trading Deficits. The first part of Plan B, then, consists of making sure that the party lasts as long as possible, fueling all on-going military adventures.


    We would even say that just a George W. Bush’s main purpose during his first term was to serve as a suitable figurehead for the “War on Terrorism”, his primary purpose during his second term in office will be to lead a highly professional team which is taking advantage, promoting and managing the very complex monetary and financial engineering necessary for the demise of the Dollar, then ensuring its orderly replacement by a New Gold-backed Dollar.


    Let us consider a possible scenario of this sort:
    ...


    Kurz: Eine Währungsreform wird nötig, damit das Spiel wieder von vorne beginnen kann.. :D


    Gruss

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

    Es schaut ja immer besser aus, je näher die Wahlen kommen.... :D


    Heutiger Kommentar (Auszug) von Bill Cara:


    I have been opining for several weeks that the $USD had run into technical resistance and could not break out to the upside. That seemed to be holding gold down as the $USD was hugging the upper channel of its trading range.


    I figure that as soon as the $USD starts its descent, that $GOLD will start its major rally… maybe not the same day, but the Gold Rally day is soon to arrive. And, you don’t want to miss it. :]
    The latest economic woes of the U.S. will require more reflation (ie, money printing), which is more important to gold prices than the interest yields in the bond market, and as you can see, there is a major difference between the 5.25 pct Fed Rate and the yields on T-Bills (4.96) and 30-year T-Bonds (4.79), and all treasury paper in between.


    Gruss

  • Silber Produktion 2006

    Na nichts zu 2006, dafür was nostalgisches von 1967, als das Ende des Silbergeldes beschlossen wurde.


    Das Warum ist aus dem Artikel des Time Magazins von 1967 ersichtlich, als der Silberpreis von $1.27 auf $ 1.67 stieg. :D


    Gruss


    Silver Looks Brighter
    Posted Friday, Jun 2, 1967


    For years, the U.S. Government has been working out ways and means of dealing with the probability that someday the Treasury would run out of silver. Despite that commendable foresight, Treasury was taken by surprise when the crisis arrived. Confronted by a sudden buying rush that threatened to wipe out its dwindling stockpile, the Treasury barely had time to put its plans into action. Sales of its silver for export were abruptly halted; domestic sales were limited to "legitimate industrial users," and the export or melting of silver coins was forbidden.* "We knew we'd get out of the silver business sooner or later," explains Assistant Treasury Secretary Robert Wallace, "but we didn't know it would be so soon."


    That emergency action two weeks ago was aimed at forestalling a disruptive disappearance of the nation's remaining silver coinage before it could be fully replaced by coins of copper and nickel. Silver speculators, however, took the curbs as a signal that by year's end, when the Treasury expects to have sufficient "clad" coins available, it will stop holding down the domestic price of silver by selling it for $1.29 per oz. Next day, traders on Manhattan's Commodity Exchange bid up the price of silver to $1.67 per oz. Though the price of the metal for immediate delivery eased to $1.5085 by the end of last week, silver for May 1968 delivery rose as high as $1.60 before closing at $1.56.


    Soaring Appetite. Abrupt as it was, the embargo was only the latest in a series of Treasury moves to cope with the soaring world appetite for silver. Because of increasing sales of sterling silverware and photographic film (in which silver halides are the light-sensitive ingredient) plus expanding use in electronics and aerospace, the demand for industrial silver jumped 91% (to 150 million oz.) last year in the U.S. Altogether, the free world consumed 464 million oz. of silver last year while mining less than half that amount. In 1963, to help balance supply and demand, the Government stopped issuing $1 bills redeemable in silver. Two years later it minted the first of its cupronickel dimes and quarters; last year it cut the silver content of newly issued half dollars from 90% to 40%.


    Still, the Treasury's once vast hoard of the metal shrank by mid-May to a mere 485 million oz. (a quarter of its 1960 size) as the Government was forced to stick to its policy of selling silver at a low-pegged price. For if the price of silver rises above $1.40 per oz., it becomes theoretically profitable to melt silver dimes, quarters and pre-1966 half dollars for their metallic content.


    To take the U.S. completely off the silver standard, Congress is speeding action on a bill that will allow the Treasury (after a one-year wait) to stop redeeming in silver the $553 million of old silver certificate bills that are still in circulation or hoarded away. That action would free 430 million oz. of Treasury silver now frozen by law as backing for the currency. Even so, the Wall Street brokerage firm of Paine, Webber, Jackson & Curtis recently predicted that the Treasury will run out of silver by mid-1968 (except for a strategic reserve).


    Frenzied Rush. In Idaho's Coeur d'Alene mining country, source of nearly half the nation's silver, that possibility has helped fire up a frenzied rush to buy land, stake new claims and expand prospecting. "Everybody around here is participating," said R. J. Bruning, editor-publisher of the Northern Idaho Press, who is also president of two small mining firms. "We're all muckers—and we all own mining stocks." Many big mining companies have doubled their exploration budgets and Hecla Mining, the country's largest silver producer, is gambling $2,500,000 on deepening a single mine to 9,100 ft. "We're more optimistic than ever about the future of silver," said Hecla Chairman L. J. Randall. The same feeling spread to the New York Stock Exchange, where silver shares climbed rapidly. In the past fortnight, Hecla gained 8 points to 55¾, Bunker Hill 6¾ points to 36\|, Sunshine Mining 3½ points to 32½. In short, investors seem to be betting that the price of silver will top $2 per oz.—a few even talk of $3 per oz.—once the U.S. stockpile is exhausted.

  • Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I


    Das kann man wohl so sagen... :D


    Wie einfach das ist, schildert Raymond James Chief Investment Strategist, Jeff Saut in seinem Artikel (Ausschnitt):


    Jeff Saut Presents: An Eerie Stillness


    ...
    A current “eerie stillness” on Wall Street? Well, not really since the DJIA is resting some 1200 points above its mid-July lows. However, we still can’t shake the “eerie” feeling that something’s unnatural about the stock market’s action. Yeah, I know that when anyone gets “wrong footed” in the markets there is the tendency to make excuses and my firm has clearly been too cautious since those lows even though, on a trailing 12-month basis, we continue to outperform. It’s also worth noting that we’re not conspiracy theorists, believing that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone and that George W. Bush really did win the election. Yet, there remains an eerie “bid” in the equity markets since those July lows. For example, markets typically rally, then correct by about one-quarter to one-third of that rally’s point gain, before beginning another rally phase. After that phase, they again correct by one-quarter to one-third before re-rallying. This, however, has not been the case recently. Indeed, every time it looked like the indices were about to correct, mysterious buyers materialized in the futures markets. Those “buyers” tend to widen the futures premiums so far above the cash markets that it attracts arbitrageurs. The arbs, in turn, short the futures and buy the appropriate baskets of stocks. That operation allows the arbs to “lock in” the spread between the futures price and what they paid for the basket of stocks, assuring them a risk-less profit and, in the process, driving stocks higher.


    Evidentially, we are not the only ones that have noticed this “eerie situation” for savvy seer Dr. Robert McHugh (http://www.technicalindicatorindex.com) recently wrote, as paraphrased by me:



    The rally since July has been almost entirely short-covering. We get one big move, about once a week, on buying panic, then no follow-up. . . . Get this: all of the progress of this three-month summer/autumn rally, all of it, occurred in only nine days of trading, and all but one of the nine was a short-covering rally. . . . Other than those nine trading days out of 63 since July 14th, the other 54 days of trading produced only 4% of the upside progress, and zero since July 19th. ZERO . . .!


    While my firm can’t tell if those nine sessions were all “short covering,” we did take the time to check Dr. McHugh’s keen insights and found them to be right on point as can be seen in the chart below. Amazingly, those nine sessions [7-19 (+212); 7-24 (+182); 7-28 (+119); 8-15 (+132); 8-16 (+97); 9-12 (+101); 9-26 (+93); 10-4 (+123); 10-12 (96)] accounted for 1155 of the Dow’s 1200-point gain from the July lows. Even more amazing is that on ALL of those nine trading days, according to our notes, showed that the aforementioned “mysterious” futures buyers were at work with the attendant arbs’ action. When we combine this “mysterious” equity action with the “mysterious” re-balancing of Goldman Sach’s (GS) much institutionally indexed commodity index (GSCI), from a 7.3% gasoline weighting to 2.5% into the November elections, we find ourselves “mysteriously cautious.”
    ...


    Gruss