Zitat
Original von GOLD_Baron
WORLD LIQUIDITY CRISIS EMERGING
by Christopher Laird
http://www.financialsense.com/…ials/laird/2007/0314.html
Hallo GB, ich finde, dieser Artikel verdient es, in Teilen zitiert zu werden.
Gruss
Auszüge aus:
WORLD LIQUIDITY CRISIS EMERGING
by Christopher Laird
PrudentSquirrel.com
March 14, 2007
In my judgment, we are possibly right at the cusp of a stock decline of the magnitude of the 1929 stock crash sometime this year.
Genau und im Moment erleben wird den Anfang.
Now, many people believe that markets will likely recover, that this present world stock decline is merely a correction. But, I view the market recoveries in the US and Asia last week as a dead cat bounce. I am fairly sure that we are going to see a great world stock crash that will make last years stock declines near this time of year look rather benign. The trouble is, this time, the US is now facing the necessity of lowering interest rates, and that will add further fuel to Yen carry unwinding. Many other factors also will just drain liquidity from financial markets, including housing and commercial real estate… and so on, there are many facets to this emerging liquidity crisis so lets get started
…
Mit geschönten Statistiken gelingt es noch die Mehrheit der Marktteilnehmer hinters Licht zu führen. Von Korrektur kann noch gar keine Rede sein. Die hat noch nicht mal angefangen.
In fact, the recent gold sell off can be seen as a harbinger of the emerging liquidity crisis in general. As interest rates in the US are likely to be cut soon, particularly in this stock disaster, great pressure is put on the Yen carry. The whole motivation for Yen carry is to profit for on the huge interest rate spread of the US – 5.25% vs the Yen -.5%. People borrow that and either pocket the interest rate differential, or, worse, speculate with ultra cheap borrowed yen.
Gold wurde also abverkauft um einerseits an liquide Mittel zu gelangen und andererseits zur Stützung des Marktes.
As long as the Yen does not strengthen, and the US interest rate differential is maintained, all those hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Yen stay in their respective markets. The trouble is, we now have both the Yen strengthening, and a relative certainty of a US interest rate cut. The Yen carry is very much now set up for a vicious cycle of unwindings:
First, stock/financial losses cause selling/liquidation. Yen carry is then paid off, further strengthening the Yen, creating further pressure to unwind more borrowed Yen – causing further selling in financial markets, an another round of stock drops follows, and we get a vicious cycle of market drops.
Then, the US cuts interest rates to combat these, and the Yen carry has further reason to unwind, and another vicious cycle is now in play to cause stock drops.
Ein stärker werdender Yen führt zu einem “unwinding” des Yen Carry Trades, was Verluste in den Aktienmärkten nach sich zieht
Die Fed muss die Zinsen senken um ein komplettes Zusammenbrechen zu verhindern, schwächt aber auf diese Weise den Dollar.
Ein gordischer Knoten...
All of this financial unwinding causes great losses in every market the Yen carry inhabits. This causes currencies to strengthen, and losses of capital for both investors and brokers who have bet/borrowed on low Yen. Losses of capital by these means loss of market liquidity. It does not help that investment banks like Goldman have huge positions in sub prime mortgages, and this market is collapsing. That causes further loss of financial liquidity – basically a wave of stock and financial losses are sweeping the markets, leading to further selling.
Stock losses lead to more stock losses and liquidity drains
As of this point, we can say there is several trillion dollar value of losses in stock markets. This loss means there is less money, and then combine that with a change of sentiment to fearful. The drop in portfolio values is a net loss in money, and is highly deflationary. This is such a drain on banks and investors that, as this value literally vaporizes, bank and market liquidity dry up. The stage is set for a real panic sell off in all financial markets, except quality bonds.
Bald wird Angst das Marktverhalten bestimmen. Jetzt ist es höchste Zeit, loszurennen...
As more news of sub prime losses comes out, the market literally dries up. Banks and institutions hold all manner of positions on these, to include the huge mortgage derivative and securitization and credit insurance. Banks and others now find they cannot sell these positions, and have to take huge losses. Goldman Sachs is a prime example. It is said the major investment banks have about 15% of their capital in these. The end result is these investment banks and everyone else holding sub prime investment products are now getting hammered and no one wants to buy, so these markets continue their death spiral.
So ernst ist bereits die Lage im Subprime Mortgages Markt:
CIGA Rusty Bayonet is quoted to say regarding the last week of February,“I know for a fact that there was not a single buyer of subprime mortgages last week. I have a buddy who trades them and said he could not find a bidder down to 93... Essentially the subprime industry ceased to exist last week.” This is the stuff of bank crises, from liquidity seizures, which to date have been minimized and fully denied. The next phase will center on negative amortization mortgages.
Kein einziger Käufer…
The outfall of sub prime losses cannot be underestimated. These comprise about 20% of all mortgages, and is just a huge dead weight on financial markets in all kinds of ways.
We keep hearing the US consumer is still alive and well, but that is rapidly changing. In fact, consumer sentiment on some indexes dropped 10% just after these recent stock crashes.
Das Vertrauen der Konsumenten kann schnell ins Negative kippen, wenn sich die Probleme bei den Hypotheken und die Verluste auf den Aktienmärkten auszuwirken beginnen.
What is more important, people clearly do not understand how rapidly the US and western economy can spiral into a crisis level economic collapse. To refresh your memory, remember how many waves of layoffs there were after the Tech crash?, and when 911 happened, things just got worse. The US, the EU, Japan, and China all were fearing deflation. That memory has receded from memory, but I clearly remember how fast the layoffs piled up in the US, and how bad the US consumer pulled back, as well as how fast companies pulled back from capital investment.
Do you see the ingredients in the wind for a real depression this time?
Das kann schnell gehen. Bill Cara hat in einem seiner letzten Blogs geschrieben: Wenn die Entwicklung so weiter geht, dann ist Ende 07 nicht eine Rezession, sondern eine Depression angesagt.
But I keep hearing about how central banks only have to turn on liquidity spigots to full blast and everything will be ok. That is not correct, this time.
Diesmal werden die Zentralbanken mit einem Öffnen der Geldschleusen die Situation nicht mehr retten können.
Commodities are going to get hit badly. These have been infected with speculation, and Yen carry is involved. They are and will be selling off in months to come as stocks drop. There is also the economic rationale for them to drop as economies slow and demand slackens. Obviously, gold and oil will feel this pressure. Gold will ultimately detach from downward commodity pressure, however. As in any market, as commodities unwind, there will be further pressure to unwind. Commodities will likely fall to their historic norms at the minimum.
Markets and economies can slow fast and drastically
Again, I have to emphasize that as this world liquidity crisis spreads, central banks will fall behind trying to stem it. Also, you will be amazed at how fast the economies slow, and how soon the big layoff notices start popping up. Soon, the economy will be in a vicious consumer led recession that could even lead to a world depression and deflation. I really don’t believe the central banks will be able to stem things this time from a cycle of economic slowing leading to falling consumer confidence and consequent deflationary pressures in the US and Japan. Ultimately China will follow, and soon too, because China definitely is set up for a deflation for its own reasons (massive mal investment -10% of their businesses are making money, did you know that? Massive hidden banking losses, massive local speculation in stocks and real estate that are presently getting wiped out)
The only way central banks even have a hope of temporarily stemming a stock led decline into a depression, if things get bad enough, is through literally monetizing the entire world stock markets! Who knows, the US and Japanese plunge protection teams may try it….
They won’t succeed.
Auch die Rohstoffpreise werden leiden und so auch den Goldpreis in den Abgrund ziehen. Die Goldpreise werden sich aber im Gegensatz zu anderen Rohstoffpreisen erholen. Was Silber betrifft, wird es stark davon abhängen, ob Silber wieder eine monetäre Rolle spielen wird.
