As GM goes so does America

    Sowas wundert heutzutage niemanden mehr.


    Lethargie globalisiert


    gogh






    GM ist einer der größten privaten Schuldner der Welt



    Rating-Agentur


    General Motors ist Ramsch


    05. Mai 2005 Neuer Rückschlag für den in der Krise steckenden


    weltgrößten Autokonzern General Motors: Die Rating-Agentur Standard &


    Poors hat am Donnerstag das Kredit-Rating des Unternehmens auf das


    berüchtigte Niveau sogenannter „Schrottanleihen” (Junk Bond) gesenkt.


    S&P entschied sich zu dem Schritt, nachdem GM im ersten Quartal


    einen Verlust von mehr als einer Milliarde Dollar gemacht hatte.



    Auch beim Erzrivalen Ford nahm S&P das Rating auf Junk-Status zurück.

    Wenn ich es richtig im Kopf habe, glaube ich in den letzten Tagen irgenwo gelesen zu haben, dass GM ungefähr 3x soviel Schulden hat wie Argentinien.....Prost Mahlzeit......

    Du hast richitig gelesen. Bei Argeninien waren es wohl im Zeitpunkt des Ausfalls 70 Mrd. USD. Nochwas wird bei diesen Größenordnungen klar. Konzerne sind jetzt in der Lage, es mit STAATEN aufzunehmen. Malt Euch die Konsequenzen aus.


    Lancelot

    ...........auf der Titanic




    Zitat aus DIE WELT vom 07.05.05


    Ramsch-Rating läßt Anleihemärkte kalt
    ===============================



    Befürchteter Renten-Crash nach Herabstufung von GM und Ford bleibt


    aus - Analysten sprechen von Einzelfällen



    Berlin - Es gibt sie noch: die positiven Überraschungen. Zum


    Wochenschluß setzte der Rentenmarkt ein Zeichen. Trotz der


    Herabstufung der Kreditwürdigkeit von General Motors (GM) und Ford auf


    Ramschniveau blieben die von vielen Experten erwarteten Turbulenzen


    bei Unternehmensanleihen aus. Lediglich die Bonds der betroffenen


    Autokonzerne brachen ein, die großen Anleiheindizes notierten dagegen unverändert.





    Dabei sprechen Beobachter durchaus von einem Jahrhundertereignis,


    das die Rating-Agentur Standard & Poor's (S&P) am Donnerstag abend


    mit ihrem Downgrade initiiert hat. Schließlich handelt es sich bei den


    Autokonzernen um den zweit- beziehungsweise drittgrößten


    Unternehmensschuldner der Welt. Anleihen im Wert von insgesamt 453


    Mrd. Dollar sind betroffen; lediglich der US-Mischkonzern GE hat noch


    mehr Corporate Bonds ausstehen. Noch nie in der Geschichte war bei


    sogenannten Fallen Angels ein derart hohes Anleihevolumen tangiert.


    Den bisherigen Negativrekord hielt Worldcom inne. Deren Downgrade


    machte Papiere von 30 Mrd. Dollar zu Ramsch.

    Die bei GM und Ford involvierten Banken können einen Verfall der Anleihekurse nicht zulassen und werden deshalb jegliches Material in die eigenen Bücher genommen haben.


    Die Ankündigung Krekorians verstärkt in GM zu investieren, tat sein Übriges. Ob es tatsächlich tut, ist eine andere Frage.


    Die Lemminge werden jedoch über den Bart barbiert


    Wie kann man nur ein Unternehmen, wie GM, dass über 300 Mrd.US$ Schulden hat, als investitionswürdig bezeichnen. Das ist übrigens dreimal so viel, wie der gesamte Kurswert aller in der Welt gehandelten Goldminenaktien. Die Pensionsverpflichtungen (ca. US$ 4.500,- pro verkauftem Fahrzeug) werden es eines Tages richten.

    Goldesel


    Glaube schon dass Kerkorian in GM investiert. Er hat ja auch erst in DaimlerChrysler investiert, dann geweint und im Anschluss daran versucht auf dem Gerichtsweg seine Rendite einzufahren. Hat aber nicht geklappt. Also dann auf ein Neues; GM ist eine amerikanische Firma, da lässt sich sowas dann leichter einklagen.

    at: Jürgen


    die nicht gedeckten Pensionsverpflichtungen von GM werden in einigen Jahren zwangsläufig in die Insolvenz führen. Dafür sorgt zum einen der Zinseszinseffekt, zum anderen müssen immer mehr Rentner immer länger versorgt werden.


    Im übrigen gilt das Gleiche für die Pensionskasse des Bundes.


    Lustig wird das nicht

    Money, get away.
    Get a good job with good pay and you’re okay.
    Money, it’s a gas.
    Grab that cash with both hands and make a stash.
    New car, caviar, four star daydream,
    Think I’ll buy me a football team.


    Money, get back.
    I’m all right jack keep your hands off of my stack.
    Money, it’s a hit.
    Don’t give me that do goody good bullshit.
    I’m in the high-fidelity first class traveling set
    And I think I need a lear jet.


    Money, it’s a crime...


    Share it fairly but don’t take a slice of my pie.
    Money, so they say
    Is the root of all evil today.
    But if you ask for a raise it’s no surprise that they’re
    Giving none away.


    Huhuh! I was in the right!
    Yes, absolutely in the right!
    I certainly was in the right!
    You was definitely in the right. that geezer was cruising for a
    Bruising!
    Yeah!
    Why does anyone do anything?
    I don’t know, I was really drunk at the time! :D

    VEHICULAR BOND SLAUGHTER


    By Eric J. Fry


    Now that GM's credit rating clings for its life, millions
    of bond investors are holding a candle for the auto titan -
    hoping for a miraculous recovery.


    If GM's investment-grade rating sheds its mortal coil, the
    entire corporate bond market may suffer a near-death
    experience, especially that portion of the bond market that
    already faces life and death situations every day...the
    junk-bond sector.


    Now more than ever, therefore, junk bonds – known in polite
    company as "high-yield" bonds – might not be suitable for
    widows and orphans...or for married couples and their
    children...or for divorcees...or for same-sex partners...or
    for almost any other sort of investor who favors return OF
    capital over return ON capital.


    Last week, an intellectually honest credit analyst at
    Standard & Poor's named Scott Sprinzen, plunged the credit
    ratings of both General Motors and Ford into the ranks of
    junk borrowers. In so doing, he seemed to plunge many junk-
    bond investors into a state of extreme denial.


    To be sure, many GM bondholders panicked immediately upon
    learning of the downgrade and dumped their holdings.
    Likewise, many other high-yield investors reacted swiftly
    and decisively to the news by dumping an array of high-
    yield bonds.


    A few steps removed from the fray, however, the owners of
    closed-end funds that invest in high-yield securities
    steadfastly held their ground. They responded as if GM's
    travails posed no risk whatsoever to the rest of the high-
    yield market.



    RMK High Income Fund (NYSE: RMH), for example, continues to
    hold near its recent highs, even though GMs bonds are
    plummeting toward all-time lows. Are RMH shareholders
    courageous or naïve? (Or maybe they're courageous AND
    naïve). Let the reader decide.


    We would readily concede that GM bonds and the rest of the
    high-yield market are not one and the same. But neither are
    they as different as RMH's resilient share price would seem
    to imply.


    The chart below presents the recent yield histories of a GM
    bond maturing in 2015 and an index of BB-rated bonds (GM's
    new peer group). A close correlation between the two is
    readily apparent, as is the recent spike in GM's yield to
    distressed levels.



    If GM's bonds - the newest and largest members of the junk-
    bond ranks – are reflecting extreme distress, shouldn't the
    prices of closed-end funds that specialize in junk bonds be
    reflecting at least mild concern? A few of them are, but
    many are not.


    Last week's twin-downgrade of Ford and GM was not an every-
    day event. To the contrary, both automakers are massive
    borrowers. "GM, with about $300 billion in notes, bonds,
    loans and asset-backed securities as of Dec. 31, and Ford,
    with about $151 billion, are the biggest companies [ever]
    cut to junk," Bloomberg News reports. "The former biggest
    so-called fallen angel was WorldCom, which had $30 billion
    of bonds cut to speculative grade on May 10, 2002. GM's cut
    affects about $200 billion of debt."

    For perspective, GM's debt alone would account for about
    15% of all U.S. high-yield bonds outstanding. In other
    words, junk-bond buyers might find themselves with much
    more junk than they wish to buy. And a dollar spent buying
    a bond issued by GM or Ford bonds would be a dollar NOT
    spent buying some other sort of junk bond. Net-net, we
    suspec t GM and Ford will be about as welcome in the junk-
    bond market as a windstorm at an origami festival...and
    just as disruptive.


    "When Standard & Poor's shunted General Motors and Ford
    into the credit junkyard on Thursday," the Times of London
    remarked, "there was no groan of bending steel, no screech
    of torn metal."


    Very true. But a car that is hurtling off a cliff makes no
    sound whatsoever...for a while.


    "The cliffhanger is whether another ratings agency, such as
    Moody's or Fitch, follows S&P's lead," the Times continues.
    Such a decision would push GM out of Lehman's Global
    Aggregate index and into the world of fixed-income
    "untouchables." Many pension funds and other institutional
    investors may not own junk-rated bonds. If/As/When these
    institutional investors must disgorge their GM and Ford
    bonds, traditional high-yield investors might choke on the
    supply.


    As for the prospect of a meaningful financial recovery at
    GM, we are dubious. Nothing short of the miraculous will
    enable GM to recover any semblance of its past glory. The
    automaker's share of the U.S. auto market during the first
    four months of the year tumbled to an 80-year low of 25.6
    percent - down from 27.3 percent in the same period of
    2004.


    "Although GM has substantial cash reserves," Sprinzen
    ominously concludes, "its ability to withstand persistent
    poor financial performance is not unlimited."


    Maybe the worst is over already for the high-yield market,
    but we doubt it. And even if we wanted to believe it, we
    would not bet on that outcome with any of our own money.
    Hold a candle for GM's credit rating if you wish, but don't
    hold your breath.


    [Ed. Note: Dan Denning has been predicting GM's demise for
    a long time. Hark! Another prediction of Dan's comes true.
    The good news is, there are still a few dominoes left to
    fall, and the fattest profits are still to come...

    die ganze wunderbare scheinheiligkeit unserer GROEFAZE kommt unter den diversen Angriffen der corprate raiders (Kerkorian, Ch. Hohn etc.) auf das allerschoenste zum Vorschein.
    Oberglobalisierer Breuer wird sogar patriotisch, nachdem Hohn im eins verpasst hat:
    <zitat>
    Breuer glaubt, dass künftig auch andere DAX-Konzerne durch Fonds gefährdet sind: 'Ich fürchte, jetzt kann es jeden erwischen', sagte der langjährige Deutsche-Bank-Chef, der auch den Aufsichtsrat der größten deutschen Bank leitet. 'Das wird für Vorstände in Deutschland eine ganz andere Welt sein und trifft die deutsche Volkswirtschaft ins Mark.' Deshalb müsse man in Deutschland über strengere Gesetze gegen Hedge-Fonds 'wohl ernsthaft nachdenken'. Aktionäre, die sich langfristig verpflichten, könnten Sonderstimmrechte eingeräumt werden.
    </zitat>
    Finde es auch sehr pikant gewuerzt, dass unser oekonomischer Saubermann F. Merz die TCI vertritt & als potentieller DeutscheBoerse-Chef gehandelt wird.
    Wird interessant, wie er sein innenpolitisches Interesse an wachsendem inlaenischem Steueraufkommen mit seinem exterritorialen Gewinninteresse zu vereinbaren wissen wird.


    glueck auf
    -nemo-

    A fellow Aussie Cafe member was kind enough to send the
    following:


    Mezz loans or mezzanine loans are virtual second
    mortgages.


    Hedge funds and banks might swap first mortgage holdings
    and instruments for mezz holdings and instruments when
    the economy looks good - mainly for the greater yield,
    and move back into first mortgages when the economy looks
    like contracting. The trap is to be caught holding the
    wrong one, especially when such holdings are leveraged.
    And just like LTCM, the spreads can suddenly widen instead
    of being relatively predictable or narrowing.


    Correlation is the "running in parallel" nature of the
    two instruments. And when they don't run parallel then
    big trouble for those that are betting on correlation.


    ***


    All the talk on CNBC is about hedge funds. Our input has
    Deutsche Bank and JP Morgan (both Gold Cartel stalwarts)
    as ones taking major hits - most likely along with various
    hedge funds.


    JP Morgan was last at $35.26, down 70 cents.


    Stay tuned!!!

    Dear CIGA:


    If you wish to consider the philosophy (the end justifies the means) of how US media, government and corporate America appear to operate, consider the absolutely bad joke of GM maintaining its level of cash dividend as they face an extremely large maturation of a loan plus a cash draught 42 months in advance.


    My management decision would have been to bite this bullet a long time ago, doing everything necessary to obtain the longest period of time for the corporation to resolve its problems.


    Survival of the body corporate is the primary directive of management, not window dressing which is always so transparent, most certainly in critical times.


    Window dressing is a form of spin. Claiming any possibility of reducing a budget while supporting the largest roads bill ever, a bill so costly that it is way above the budget estimate for roads in the US Federal Budget for calendar year 2005, is a blatant example of such window dressing. To add to this madness, this bill contains 4000 pork barrel :D special interest projects which I believe constitutes an egregious form of spin.


    This now almost universal mode of operation, which says it does not matter what you do or how you do it as long as you accomplish your goal, is self defeating because it sustains form over substance. That is akin to a seat made of white birch in which the surface looks solid but the inside is totally rotten. Sit on this and you will get airtime.


    The US dollar is just such a seat as its inner fundamentals are totally rotten. Those trading for a counter trend rally are sitting on this seat which is perched above an open septic tank. Watch out below!


    With US legislators threatening to take action against China if it delays floating the yuan, do you really believe any significant number of these professional politicians have any idea whatsoever about the mechanics of trade, deficits or the impact of a change in major currency relationships? No, they haven’t a clue.


    These professional politicians have just constructed a $284 billion road bill that the House thinks should be $400 billion. Yet they blame the Chinese for all the dollar’s problems. Talk about a bunch of dumb bells we have elected to high office!

    The Rude Awakening PRESENTS:


    Warren Buffet has placed a colossal bet against the dollar, but what if the dollar keeps going up and he's forced to liquefy?


    Will the market finally get its man? ?(


    Except Gartman's analysis is directed toward Warren Buffett
    and his colossal bet against the dollar. Gartman thinks the
    market will eventually force Buffett out of the position,
    and push the dollar higher still.


    "The dollar is strong; the EUR is weak and we are left to
    wonder what it is that Mr. Buffett is going to do now with
    his huge short U.S. dollar position that is becoming more
    and more untenable with each passing day?" he says. "The
    market will do what it can (and must) to force Mr. Buffett
    from his position, for that is its 'Harsh Mistress's'
    duty."


    Gartman is one of our favorite analysts, as you can
    probably tell from they way we reference him in nearly
    every column we write, but in this instance, we disagree
    with him. Gartman is confusing Buffett for a trader. But
    he's not a trader, he's betting on a long-term,
    fundamentally driven trend and he isn't the type to be
    frightened by a ten percent rally against his position.

    Besides, Buffett's bet has already made a fortune. In the
    fourth quarter of 2004, his foreign currency positions
    earned $1.63 billion versus a $310 million loss in the
    first quarter of this year.


    Any way, Buffett would prefer his currency positions to
    LOSE money! He said it himself...


    "Both as an American and an investor, I actually hope these
    commitments prove to be a mistake. Any profits Berkshire
    might make from currency trading would pale against the
    losses the company and our share holders, in other aspects
    of their lives, would incur from a plunging dollar."


    Here's another voice who thinks Buffett's currency strategy
    is more like trading than value investing, found on a
    discussion board at the Turtle Trader's website. "Do you
    buy and hold currencies forever? How does that work? Give
    us a break," the anonymous poster writes. "Buffett is
    running a hedge fund just like other managers. Just admit
    it. He is a trader. He is speculating on currencies and
    freely says so. However, Buffett's currency trading goes
    squarely against that well honed image of the 'value'
    player that so many have bought into for decades."


    Even Charlie Munger, Buffett's right hand man, is a little
    skeptical of the trade...


    "Charlie is less enthusiastic about our foreign currency
    position than I am," said Buffett at the AGM. "I might have
    somewhat more if I didn't know I'd have him sitting next to
    me here next year."


    And what about this little teaser from value investor Dan
    Ferris, received last week via email. First, Ferris gives
    us this quote:


    "Our enormous trade deficit is causing various forms of
    'claim checks' - U.S. government and corporate bonds, bank
    deposits, etc. - to pile up in the hands of foreigners at a
    distressing rate. By default, our government has adopted
    an approach to its finances patterned on that of Blanche
    DuBois, of A Streetcar Named Desire, who said, 'I have
    always depended on the kindness of strangers.' In this
    case, of course, the 'strangers' are relying on the
    integrity of our claim checks although the plunging dollar
    has already made that proposition expensive for them."


    Then asks:


    "That's Warren Buffett, on trade deficits, his new favorite
    subject. During what decade did Buffett write the above
    quote? The 1960s? 1970s? 1980s? 1990s? 2000s?"


    "The answer is 1988, in the 1987 shareholder letter. That's
    the first mention of the topic in the shareholder letters
    starting in 1977," recalls Ferris. "I thought it was a
    fairly new topic for him...but it's not. He first brought
    it up to his shareholders in 1988."


    "The term 'trade deficit' appears in three Berkshire
    letters since 1977: 1987, 2003 and 2004. The topic got
    five paragraphs in the 2003 letter, two full pages in 2004,
    and three paragraphs back in the 1987 letter."
    Buffett waited 15 years before he invested in foreign
    currencies. It's fair to say a three-month rally in the
    dollar is not going to shake him from the trade. The rest
    of the dollar shorts may not have such patience, and that's
    why, for now, we buy dollars.

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