Silvercorp Metals Inc / SVM (NYSE)

Chinese Fraud oder klassische Short Attacke?

Minenportal.de: "Silvercorp Metals: Untersuchung angekündigt, Aktie bricht ein" (http://www.minenportal.de/unte…ndigt-2C-Aktie-bricht-ein).

Gestern hatten die Shorts ja nochmal ordentlich nachgelegt (http://alfredlittle.com/2011/0…s-related-party-failures/) , was die Aktie nochmal knapp 20% nach Süden schickte. Da wurden am Minenausgang Laster gezählt und vom Laster runtergefallene Gesteinsbroken geologisch untersucht und u.a. basierend darauf behauptet, dass die SVM eigentlich nur 10% von dem Wert ist, wie es momentan gehandelt wird.

Ich bin gestern Abend after-hours mit einer kleinen Postition bei $6.01 long eingestiegen - schau'n mer mal

Zitat von Antonio de Curtis

üble sache! ich warte ab. meistens ist an solchen gerüchten etwas wahres dran. fallendes messer!

Normalerweise meide ich auch "fallende Messer" - nach Lesen des (amüsanten) alfredlittle Artikels der Shorts mußte ich mir jedoch einige SVM Aktien ins Depot legen - alleine um das Teil weiter auf dem heißen Radar zu haben. Hier noch eine interessante Einschätzung dazu von Casey Research:

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Silvercorp was hit by another accusation of wrongdoing today (which you can view in the link above), and the stock plummeted 19.6%. Our first impression of this report is much the same as the other one – biased, long on innuendo, short on proof, and in some cases, flat out wrong. Let’s go through the accusations one-by-one so you can see why we are not panicking about our position…

The report states that their “investigator” picked up a couple rocks that fell off an ore truck and the assays showed much lower grade material than SVM reports. The report notes this sample is not scientific, and promises better data in the future, but that doesn’t stop them from publishing nonsense numbers now. They also counted the trucks entering the mill and say there are not enough to add up to the tonnage of ore SVM says it’s processing – but how many days did they count? How many days did they count when there was a power issue at the mine, or one of the mill circuits was down for maintenance? What does it really prove to have a guy skulking about the bushes taking pictures and picking up rocks?

One very important fact that seems to have escaped the authors of the report is that SVM direct-ships high-grade ore to a smelter. This is a very significant part of production that does not go to the mill, and that would affect the number of trucks entering the mill, as well as the grade of the ore going to the mill (or falling off a truck along the way).

The report also falsely claims that Silvercorp’s narrow veins cannot be mined without dilution, reducing the average grade. This is simply not true. There’s a technique called “resuing” by which you tunnel next to the ore, and then take only the ore to the mill. The ore needs to be just right, but SVM’s massive sulfide veins are just right for this. Plus, there are areas where the veins are meters wide, and still grading kilos per tonne, so they can be mined directly. Louis James has been there and seen this, and saw it in multiple places in multiple levels of the mine.

The report also makes a big fuss about how large SVM’s MCap is compared to its resources and reserves. They say SVM “should” have more resources. This is more nonsense. It’s very common for vein deposits to have only a year or two in reserves drilled off in advance. Yes, that’s a risk factor, but its normal – drilling off the whole deposit in advance is just too expensive. Nobody does it. Furthermore, SVM trades at lower multiples and metrics than many other silver producers, probably because of the “China discount.” It is simply not overvalued, compared to its peers. This accusation smacks of dishonesty.

Another fuss relates to SVM buying a project from a relative of Rui Feng’s – but that, too, was disclosed at the time. Whether or not the relative made a profit is not relevant; what matters is how much the property is worth to SVM. The report states, “SVM’s independent directors need to explain how this could possibly be a fair price.” But the appropriate place for such a challenge is directly to management, or at a shareholder’s meeting. Since these avenues were apparently not tried, one must question the motives of the company’s attackers.

The report makes another big fuss about SVM selling concentrate to a smelter in which it owns at 15% stake. This ignores the fact that this was fully disclosed when SVM made the investment, and that SVM made the investment to ensure better terms for its sales and security for its contracts. This is not a bad thing, but a very good thing. The authors say they were “shocked” to see this well known and fully disclosed fact, but that's a crock.

More apparently damning are statistics quoted from Chinese authorities that appear to show much lower production rates and average grades than SVM is reporting. There’s a link in the report to a Chinese document and an English translation referring to the “yuelianggou” mine showing these much lower production numbers (there’s no link to the source for the lower grades). The Chinese report may even be real and the translation correct – but that doesn’t necessarily mean what the authors of the report are suggesting it does. The Ying Mine is not one hole in the ground, but a mine complex made of many physical components, and legal ones too. Yuelianggou may be one of these components, and not the whole thing.

Keep in mind what these accusations are: an anonymous report from a group who is short the stock. We do not place much credence in parties who have an open interest in seeing the share price fall and hide behind trees to take pictures instead of confronting management directly. Again, Louis James has been to the company’s mines twice and refutes these claims, and Jeff Clark has opted to attend the company’s mine tour in two weeks in lieu of our own Summit.

Could we be wrong? Well, it’s possible. But think about what that would mean. It would imply CEO Rui Feng doesn’t care about all the billions of dollars he could make going forward and has sold his soul for a few hundred million now. We doubt that. It would also have to mean the 43-101 Qualifying Persons who sign off on SVM’s reports are incompetent. Further, the auditors would all have to be crooked. Quite frankly, this would have to be Bre-X and Enron all rolled into one for the accusations to be true. This seems so improbable that we’re willing to bet on it being false.

What if we are wrong? If we are, our shares could go to zero. The company would be toast, and so would our money. We can’t tell you this isn’t possible, but we see the odds of this being extremely low.

Management told us the report is “baseless.” They’re working to refute it and will issue a press release “very soon.” The British Columbia Securities Commission is now involved and is asking the parties to come forward, a departure from their usual policy of keeping investigations confidential. The company also has a task force devoted to the issue, and has sought the assistance of various regulatory and law enforcement authorities in both Canada and the US, and are carrying out their own investigation.

What to do? We still view this as an opportunity, with the caveat that the onslaught of short selling may not be over. And if a third report came out, it would hit the stock even harder. Or, the accusers could be caught or proven wrong and the stock could soar. Either way, panicking is not the right course. We're not changing our recommendation. If you have your full allotment of the stock, hold. If you have room to add shares to your portfolio, we’d still view this as an opportunity. In the interests of full disclosure, some members of Casey Research were filled on bids today.

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Zitat von blaucater

Eines der besten Ag-Papierchen die es gibt.

Sollten sich die Beschuldigungen als (mehr oder weniger) falsch erweisen, wird es hier sicher zu einem schönen Short-Squeeze kommen, den ich nicht verpassen möchte. Long term würde ich SVM nicht halten oder gar nachkaufen - da gibt's sicher bessere AG Investments. Habe selbst auch schon Negativerfahrungen mit China Aktien machen dürfen und das, was man in den diversen Reports lesen konnte, ist wahrscheinlich nicht 100%tig aus der Luft gegriffen - Intransparenz, fragwürdiges Accounting, Klüngel, China an sich, Mangel an unabhängigen Gutachten, etc. hinterlassen schon einen faden Beigeschmack imo. time will tell

btw, schöner squeeeze ongoing atm: $7.21 $6.01 Gain: +19.97% ..

Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC Investigates Silvercorp Metals, Inc.Last update: 9/14/2011 12:16:00 PMNEW YORK, Sep 14, 2011 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC is investigating potential claims on behalf of purchasers of the securities of Silvercorp Metals, Inc. ("Silvercorp" or the "Company") (SVM), concerning whether the company and certain of its officers and directors have violated federal securities laws. On September 1, 2011, the Company was forwarded a copy of an anonymous letter dated August 29, 2011, addressed to the Ontario Securities Commission, the Company's auditors, and various media outlets alleging a "Potential $1.3 Billion Accounting Fraud at Silvercorp. The letter also alleges that Silvercorp reported a profit in 2010 in a Securities and Exchange Commission Filing, while also reporting a loss to Chinese regulators. The anonymous author also acknowledged he had taken a short position in the Company. On Friday, September 9, 2011, The British Columbia Securities Commission confirmed it was investigating this anonymous allegation against Silvercorp. On this news, shares of Silvercorp plummeted $1.54 or about 20% to close at $6.30 on Tuesday, September 13, 2011. If you are aware of any facts relating to this investigation, or purchased shares of Silvercorp, you can assist this investigation by contacting either Peretz Bronstein or Eitan Kimelman of Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC at 212-697-6484 or via email eitan@bgandg.com. Those who inquire by e-mail are encouraged to include their mailing address and telephone number. Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC is a corporate litigation boutique. Our primary expertise is the aggressive pursuit of litigation claims on behalf of our clients. In addition to representing institutions and other investor plaintiffs in class action security litigation, the firm's expertise includes general corporate work, private securities offerings, and securities arbitration. SOURCE: Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC Bronstein, Gewirtz & Grossman, LLC Peretz Bronstein or Eitan Kimelman 212-697-6484 eitan@bgandg.com

Silvercorp Refutes Second Damaging Anonymous Report >SVMLast update: 9/14/2011 12:19:16 PMDOW JONES NEWSWIRES Silvercorp Metals Inc. (SVM) Wednesday dismissed a second anonymous report accusing it of fraud, and urged its critics to "come out of the shadows" and participate in ongoing investigations if they have genuine concerns about the company's activities. The Vancouver-based company, which mines silver in China, said it refutes the substance of all allegations in the second report, which was posted Tuesday on the website Alfredlittle.com. That report came just weeks after an anonymous letter dated Aug. 29 was sent to the Ontario Securities Commission and other parties, accusing the company of accounting fraud. Wednesday, Silvercorp said the latest report was published "in furtherance of concerted efforts by a group of short sellers to drive down the company's share price through false, selective or ignorant statements and rumors." Wednesday in Toronto, Silvercorp is up almost 16% to C$7.18, largely recovering from Tuesday's 20% drop, which came after the second report surfaced. British Columbia's securities regulator and others are investigating the allegations against the company. While Silvercorp said it won't comment further on comments published in anonymous letters or blogs, it did say that the more than US$116.6 million of taxes it has paid to the Chinese government and the US$152 million of dividends it has paid to shareholders are evidence of a revenue stream in accordance with reported results. It also said the exploration report cited in the second anonymous letter is outdated and shouldn't be relied upon. -By Carolyn King, Dow Jones Newswires; 416-306-2100; carolyn.m.king@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires

Zitat von Antonio de Curtis

da kocht einer vor wut

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip532771

... nice

Verglichen mit anderen China CEOs gar nicht mal so schlechtes (wie üblich gesungenes) Englisch. Hier auch noch ein anderer interessanter Link zum Thema : http://www.kereport.com/2011/09/14/situation-silvercorp/

Easy money imo (für Trader) ...