Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Mahendra is attracting all sorts of attention:

http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1092841200.php

World Gold Council says Q2 consumer demand for gold rose

http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?t…id=5053486&action=article
LONDON (AFX) - The World Gold Council said consumer demand for gold rose in the second quarter from the year-earlier period, with increased consumption of jewellery and retail investment, although institutional investment demand is thought to have fallen.

Consumer demand rose 11 pct in tonnage terms to 743 tonnes, and by 25 pct in US dollar terms, from the year earlier, said the organisation which is funded by the world's leading gold mining companies.

Total gold supply fell 10 pct to 820 tonnes from the year-earlier quarter on lower Central bank supply and a dip in mine production

….-END-

So we now have the following confirmed for the second quarter:

*gold producers covering like mad
*a surprise major central bank buyer
*gold demand rising 11%
*and supply down

So World Gold Council, why did the gold price fall?

A look at the Fed’s gold:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3577356.stm

Bill, It's me again - the timing of this article and the obscurities and clangers inside it are just amazing. I'm not surprised...

"Foreign governments are not charged by the Fed for storing their precious reserves, but fees are incurred for withdrawals, or for moving bars to another compartment within the vault."

I wonder why Matthew Wells was allowed a glimpse of the stash of gold and no auditors have been allowed there for years, when it's supposed to the public's gold?!! Maybe Mr. Wells could throw some light on how this article was instigated. At the risk of boring you, I thought I'd send this on in case you hadn't seen it
Peter

Thoughts from London town way:

Good morning Bill
I thought I might have seen commentators/analysts mention my comment below, but since I haven't I thought it worth mentioning.

Clearly the South African Central Bank interest rate was not helpful to SA gold miners and exporters. Comments on the net abounded that SA miners were getting killed and it would be only a matter of time before a fair percentage of them went out of business; a forecast 3% licence or sales tax didn't help sentiment either.

My comment is that the move by Goldfields to acquire 70% of Iamgold and place that investment, together with Goldfields international operations in a non SA entity woke up the SA government that unless they provided a friendlier business environment for its mining industry, it wouldn't have a mining industry - it would have moved out of SA. For example not only Goldfields, but Harmony and Durban Deep all have significant and growing operations outside SA. Hence the 50 bp cut in SA rates last week, and look at the charts of Goldfields and Harmony to see what that did to their share prices.

As I write Nymex spot trading strongly at $47.50 and just hit $47.52 (new contract high) (CNBC Europe have now moved Nymex oil to the top of the right-hand price bar along with the DJIA, S&P and NASDAQ quotes. How long before CNBC puts gold there!) and spot gold trading at $406.30; both looking strong.

Just took a break to listen to Andy Smith of Mitsui Busan Commodities. This is the first time I have heard/seen him on TV. Not impressed. He thought gold might make $420/30 on political and global tensions, but after the US presidential election gold and other commodities, which really hadn't risen impressively, would drop, with gold likely to hit £370. He agreed that gold and the dollar had a close relationship which had existed for 50 years or more and saw no reason why it shouldn't continue for another 50 and that the $US hadn't much further to fall since most analysts thought it would fall further (what about the gold/oil relationship of 1/15 ?[or 1/16 as you put it recently]). None of the arguments we know, and which you and Jim Sinclair run incessantly, ever figured in his commentary, if only to knock those arguments down. All in all, a poor, unconvincing presentation; if that's all the opposition can come up with by way of analysis, we don't have much to worry about.

You have regularly mentioned the lack of guts in gold mining management in taking on, or even mentioning the cartel. It seems to me that the mining industry, or its major players at any rate, should form their own association, the WGC is a waste of time, and indicate to the market that they would only be prepared to supply gold to the market within limits of price and destination; ie, a list of preferred customers excluding known shorters.
All the best
Ian

My GATA colleague, Chris Powell, did a bit of technical work for us last night:
My technical observations, for what they're worth:

1) While most of the gold and silver shares have rallied nicely this week, most have done so on below-average volume, suggesting that the party really hasn't started up again yet.

2) A bunch of the shares I follow closely are recovering their 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, a sign of growing strength. The silver miners seem strongest in this respect. For example:

The HUI has just recovered its 50- and 100-dma and is near to recovering its 200-dma:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^HUI&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=m200,m100,m50&a=&c=

Newmont has recovered its 50- and 100-dma and is just now recovering its 200-dma:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?…q=l&p=m200,m100,m50&a=&c=

Placer Dome is just now recovering its 50-, 100-, and 200-dma:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?…q=l&p=m200,m100,m50&a=&c=

Pan American Silver is just now recovering its 50-, 100-, and 200-dma:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?…q=l&p=m200,m100,m50&a=&c=

Silver Standard has comfortably recovered its 50-, 100-, and 200-dma:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?…q=l&p=m200,m100,m50&a=&c=

Royal Gold has recovered its 50- and 100-dma and is nearing its 200-dma:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?…q=l&p=m200,m100,m50&a=&c=

Western Silver is just now recovering its 50-, 100-, and 200-dma all at once:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?…q=l&p=m200,m100,m50&a=&c=

Goldcorp has recovered its 50- and 100-dma:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?…q=l&p=m200,m100,m50&a=&c=

Apex Silver has just recovered its 50-, 100-, and 200-dma:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?…q=l&p=m200,m100,m50&a=&c=

cp

For the second day in a row, Golden Star Resources led the HUI, gaining 50 cents (11.71%) to $4.77. That’s more like it. Lot more fun when it is headed north versus towards the toilet. My objective remains $21+ per share. Bellwether Newmont has really taken off and is running away from hedge-laden Barrick once more. Newmont, the leader of the senior pack, closed at $44.03, up $1.76, while the ally of The Gold Cartel, Barrick Gold, finished the day at $19.97, up 42 cents.

The HUI rose 8.35 to 205.21 and the XAU lifted 3.61 to 94.02.

Technically speaking, the HUI looks very powerful as it took out a double top made in both the middle of May and around July 9. There is modest resistance at 210 and heavy resistance at 240. Chris Powell says the "measured move" should take the HUI to 250.

HUI
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8

Many of the smaller golds still aren’t catching any bids. This could change dramatically in the days and weeks ahead. Those not on board might find it very difficult getting on the train.

With oil doing what it is and Iraq blowing up, it is hard for me to see the heinous Gold Cartel holding gold and silver down too much longer. The Arabs are likely to show up one day at the BIS and say, "we will take all the gold you have left." Checkmate!

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

@ Thom: Danke für Deine Querverweise auf diese Diskussion im Silberaktien-Thread. Für unsereins stehen die Scharlatane halt in einer ganz anderen Ecke !

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Hallo Schwabenpfeil

gerne geschehen!
Es gibt eben Leute, welche glauben, alle Abweichler von der gängigen Meinung seien Scharlatane. Ich denke, das sehen wir zu recht anders.
Grüsse,
Thom

Gold bricht aus - geht eben übner die 411 Dollar

Kitco's Kurse stimmen wieder nicht.

Gold jetzt 414 und Silber 6,98

ps, Öl war gestern (oder vorgestern?) über 3% gestiegen. Warum sollte das nicht Gold auch gelingen???

Hallo thai,

schön dass Du wieder zurück bist. :)) :)) :))

Gruss

Warren

Hallo Thai

welcome back!
Ja, wir sind nach wie vor sehr positiv gegenüber Gold und Silber eingestellt, so leicht verdirbt uns niemand die Freude daran...
Offensichtlich bist Du auch rechtzeitig zurück zum Zeitpunkt, an dem die saisonale Schwäche für dieses Jahr zu Ende geht.

Ich frage mich, was schneller bei 20$ angelangt: der Preis einer Googleaktie oder einer Unze Silber...

Grüsse,
Thom

Hallo Thai,
willkommen zurück
[Blockierte Grafik: http://download.smiliemania.de/smilies132/00000299.gif]

Willkommen zurück.

Wenn der Goldpreis jedesmal so steigt, wenn Du aus dem Urlaub zurück kommst, dann würde ich Dich bitten öfter in Urlaub zu gehen.

Thom

Mit Google könntest Du gar nicht so unrecht haben.

Der KGV liegt weit über 100 und ansonsten haben die ja kein Produkt, das es woanders nicht auch gibt. Das Google jetzt sogar einen höheren Börsenwert als GM hat, hat mich schon erstaunt. Wenn ich nicht extra in meinen Kalender geschaut hätte, hätte ich gedacht, ich wäre irgendwie wieder im Jahre 2000 gelandet, mitten in die schöne Dotcom Bubble rein.

Wie wäre es mit einem Spiel, wo es darum geht, ob Silber oder Google die $20 Marke zuerst erreicht.

Was Google und andere Internetsuchmaschinen betrifft, kenne ich mich
nicht aus. Aber ich denke mal, Bill Gates wird sich nicht kampflos erge-
ben. Immerhin sitzt er, was den Cash Flow betrifft, am längeren Hebel.
Von daher gesehen denke ich, google ist hoffnungslos überteuert.

Gruss

Warren

Hallo Thai,

Optionsscheine auf Google gibt es selbst im Land der untergehenden Sonne erst ab morgen. Und ich denke, naiv wie sie da drüben sind, werden es calls sein.

Gold bei 500, Silber bei 12, das wäre doch was.

Google-Optionsscheine gibts schon jede Menge,haben aber sehr hohe Aufgelder.Einer z.B. mit der KN SAL0SA,Basis 80,Laufzeit Dez.2005,Bez.Verh. 10:1, kostet knapp über 1 Euro.

Gruss
GC

August 20 - Gold $412.90 up $6.30 – Silver $6.85 up 5 cents

May THE FORCE Be With Us

"THERE IS NO EXTERNAL POWER ON EARTH OR THE UNIVERSE THAT CAN BRING DOWN THE GOLD AND SILVER PRICES. DESTINY HAS BEEN WRITTEN AND I AM JUST PREDICTING IT AS IT IS." Mahendra late last week with gold around $395

GO GATA!!!!!

When I awoke this morning, gold was due $1.70 lower even though oil was well over $49 per barrel. The supposed culprit was a stronger dollar – the euro was fading fast in London for some mysterious unknown reason. Anecdotally, it seems to me whenever our stock market (it was due lower) could be under severe pressure (in this case due to the soaring price of oil), the dollar tends to strengthen rather remarkably. Today was no exception.

However, The Working Group on Financial Markets, has a short-term problem when it comes to gold. The gold physical market is on fire at the same time the funds are entering the fray in a substantial way. We know there is plenty of spec buying power out there due to the relatively low Comex open interest - as compared to what it has gone to over the past year. It is especially important to appreciate the fact that it is not only funds entering the long side of the paper market. You will recall our Stalker source telling us THE STALKER is out there buying $1 billion worth of physical bullion and a smaller fund was going to step up to the plate if gold showed it was on the move, mostly likely that meant taking out $405, which it did yesterday. Then, there is the Arab buying.

It is not that often when extremely valuable information comes my way and I am fortunate to be able to pass it on you. This past Monday was one of those days and is THE KEY to what gold did this week. For your review, from MIDAS on August 16:

A lot to report to you from the physical market front and add to John Brimelow’s superb input. London, as you might recall, was looking for gold to start its move the last two weeks of August. So far, so good. Our British dealer source checked in today and is very upbeat. NEW buying has surfaced out of Saudi Arabia and the Far East, notably Hong Kong (heavy buying). The feeling from England is that if gold closes above $405, it will shoot up to $428/$430 very quickly. Our London source is looking for $456 by the end of the year and $500 in the first quarter to second quarter of next year.

Also heard from a different source that THE STALKER is back in the market, after a sustained absence, and is going to buy 1 BILLION worth of BULLION. Meanwhile, a smaller stalker may also enter the fray, to the tune of 100 million to 1 billion. We don’t know the amount. What we do know is they are only going to buy strength, or when gold is "jumping." We take that to mean it has to take out $405 first.

Word to me this afternoon is that Morgan Stanley was a monster buyer today and it is related to new fund buying in the cash market. This fits in perfectly with the information brought to your attention from my STALKER and London bullion dealer sources. This is good, very good!

***

What a week! It seems a few very consistent gold trading patterns were broken. Today, for example, gold made new highs for the session over and over again. No more of this surge early, and then cap, cap, cap. Yesterday, the HUI surged while the general stock market was under pressure. In times past a weaker stock market has had a tendency to affect the gold shares. And as RL noted earlier, "the old cabal trick of intervening to support the dollar and bashing gold on the strong dollar pretext - that tired routine - isn't working today." Finally, gold closed higher on a Friday for the FOURTH week in a row.

The best news of the day was to see gold take off, even as the dollar rose a good bit, closing at 88.23, up .41. The euro was hit fairly hard, dropping .60 to 123.04.

As veteran Café members well know, gold rallying without dollar help has been a theme of mine for some time, even as late as last Tuesday’s MIDAS – "There is no reason gold shouldn’t rally $100 per ounce with the dollar doing nothing." Those out there who say gold is only about the dollar have it wrong. The key to the price is whether physical market buying can overpower a corrupt price-capping Gold Cartel. The cabal’s best laid plans went awry today. I can’t recall gold running this amount with the dollar so much on the upside.

You have to think the stunning Argentine central bank gold buying news has to be a HUGE plus too. As covered in last night’s MIDAS, this one seminal event could produce a sea change of thinking by other central banks. Incredibly, it was hardly mentioned anywhere by the mainstream gold world or financial market media. It’s bad enough the mainstream media hates gold, yet when the establishment gold world won’t jump up and down about this significant happening, it is OUTRAGEOUS!

The World Gold Council should be disbanded by the end of this year for the good of gold shareholders everywhere!
The gold open interest rose another 4747 contracts to 238,015. This represents tech funds and pricing due to physical market buyers taking on the despicable Gold Cartel, who have been desperately doing what they can to keep the price of gold from exploding. THIS could not be more clear as we know who the sellers were this past week.

Not everything has changed when it comes to the gold market. While the cabal was in full scale retreat today, they still managed to hold the line with the $6 RULE! When that tiresome rule is obliterated, we might have a good feeling the bad guys are going down for the count.

Next Thursday is option expiry. Some of the outstanding call gold call option positions of note:

*405 – 5374
*410 – 2181
*420 – 10,000
*430 – 8771

Silver faded late for the second day in a row, putting in its second tired performance in as many trading sessions. With the cabal having serious trouble with gold, they seemed to have shifted some focus on keeping silver from taking out $7. My floor sources, who are bullish, were not perturbed the silver sell-off as long as it held $6.83, basis Sep, and it did.

The silver open interest rose 2231 contracts to 99,926.

As far as the dollar goes, if the July trade deficit was $55 billion with $40 oil, what will the August figure be with oil approaching $50, $65 billion? The dollar rally here is both ludicrous and contrived!

Fine looking gold and silver charts:

December gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/84
Some base gold has built. All near-term technical resistance has been cleared. Next stop is to fill the gap right below $420 and then to $430.

September silver
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/94

For months I have mentioned how atrocious The Café Sentiment Indicator has been, saying:

*Never seen it this poor for so long over the past 6 years, especially with gold doing so relatively well compared to days of yore.
*My hunch has been the lack of interest in gold by the general public was setting up a major move.

Even with the excitement this week, it is no better than a 3, tops. Unreal!

The John Brimelow Report

VERY bad for day for Bears

Friday, August 20, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $5.74, PM $7.48, with world gold at $407.70 and $405.40. Adequate, and lavish, for legal imports. India, for whatever reason, appears to be an enthusiastic buyer of gold from overseas at these levels.

Standard London’s Dubai kilo bar premiums continued generous. The Shanghai Gold Exchange is showing steep discounts (over $2) from world gold, but very heavy volume. Exactly how the SGE fits into the world gold trade is unclear, but the volume suggests someone was a strong buyer during Chinese hours.

TOCOM reversed course. Volume exploded up 166% to (a still not impressive) 16,167 Comex equivalent, the active contract closed up 9 yen, and world gold went out up 60c above NY. The white metals were all soft. Open interest slipped another 728 contracts, but inspection of the (1 day lagged) Members position suggests spec liquidation on TOCOM may indeed be finishing. (NY yesterday traded 45,574 contracts, with open interest climbing 4,474 contracts. Comex open interest has risen 18,623 contracts in the four days reported this week, (or 8.5%) - 57.9 tonnes. Gold has only risen $7.80.

The dramatic events of this morning have superseded yesterday; suffice it to say that, as the open interest data has subsequently proved, serious buying was met with serious selling. Quite reasonably fearing a repeat of July’s successful defense of the $409 level, Refco Research prudently closed their profitable long, with the even more prudent advice to re open it if Dec gold got past $412.50. (This means they are now back in.)

Ian McAvity, the battle-scarred Canadian gold-friendly chartist, was seen earlier this week expressing skepticism on the sector unless gold could pass $410 and the HUI 215. One of these objectives looks possible today. Martin Pring, also dubious about gold recently, took, with the advantage of some more days of data, a friendlier attitude in his weekly this morning:

"We have been cautious on gold and gold shares for a while. This week though, the KST (a momentum measure –JB) for both series has reversed to the upside.

This suggests that there is a good chance that the overhead resistance…will be successfully

overcome allowing both the shares and the metal to experience a worthwhile extension to the rally."

For technicians to turn friendly to gold would be a welcome development, notably lacking this year.

JB