Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

  • Eine weitere Gold bullische Meldung!


    Ob da wohl endlich Gold Bullion Banken gemerkt haben, dass die Nachfrage nach physischem Gold wahrscheinlich schon sehr bald nicht mehr befriedigt werden kann, wenn Gold weiterhin so begeehrt ist, und immer weiger davon neu gefördert werden kann?


    Oder ist es nur ein erster Schritt, die Menschen darauf vorzubereiten, was da in Sachen Goldversorgung auf uns in riesen Schritten zukommen wird.


    Diese für Gold Bugs so bullische Meldung stammt von ABC News, doch wer der Verfasser dieser Meldung ist, danach sucht man leider bei ABC News Online vergeblich.


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru



    [Blockierte Grafik: http://abc.net.au/news/img/newsbanner_left.gif]


    http://abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200409/s1200317.htm


    Last Update: Thursday, September 16, 2004. 10:37am (AEST)


    Gold investment hits $8billion


    A new survey has found gold industry investment has reached $8 billion for the first time in the survey's history.


    The Australian Gold Council conducted the survey and says it is a 5 per cent increase on last year's figures.


    The survey also shows regional areas will benefit from most of the investment.


    The Gold Council's Tamara Gorrie says the rise reflects a sharp increase in operational activities, with only a small portion of investment going into exploration.


    Ms Gorrie says although the outlook for gold is positive, the lack of investment in exploration is very concerning.


    "Exploration is the industry's future. Without exploration it doesn't have a future," she said.


    Zitat

    "It's the randd [research and development] of the industry and we must simply devote more resources to exploration. More money must go into the ground to find the mines that will sustain the gold sector into the future."

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/imagesv3/v4/masthead/tgam.gif]


    http://www.theglobeandmail.com…ick0916/BNStory/Business/


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://images.theglobeandmail.…esv3/headers/Business.gif]


    POSTED AT 10:48 PM EDT Wednesday, Sep 15, 2004


    Barrick Gold ratings put under review

    By WENDY STUECK


    Vancouver — Barrick Gold Corp.'s massive mine-building program has prompted one debt rating agency to put the company's ratings under review for a possible downgrade, reflecting the billions that will be poured into the projects.


    Moody's Investors Service said Tuesday that it has placed about $500-million (U.S.) of Barrick's long-term debt under review. The senior unsecured debentures currently have an A3 investment grade rating.


    In a statement, Moody's said the review would focus on Barrick's mine development plan over the next five years. Barrick is building four new mines and in July said it would also develop the Pascua-Lama deposit, which straddles the border between Chile and Argentina.


    The five projects are expected to cost about $2.6-billion over the next five years.


    Moody's said it would consider the risks of completing all five mines on time and on budget and would also look at the company's changing geographic risk profile.


    Along with Pascua-Lama, Barrick is building the Veladero mine in Argentina, Lagunas Norte in Peru, Cowal in Australia and Tulawaka in Tanzania. Currently, about 60 per cent of its production comes from North American operations.


    Moody's said it would also consider the impact of various gold-price scenarios on Barrick's revenue in the light of the company's decision to stop hedging, or selling forward, gold production.


    Once a big supporter of hedging strategies, Barrick last year said it would not enter any new hedge contracts and would reduce the amount of gold already committed under existing hedge agreements.


    There can be a cost to closing out hedge commitments if the prices set in those agreements do not reflect market conditions. In July, when Barrick announced its second-quarter results, it reported a $26-million “opportunity cost” from selling gold at prices that were below the average spot price during the period.


    The gold price has climbed over the past three years and reached 15-year highs in January. London-based consulting firm GFMS said this week it anticipates an average of $407 an ounce for the rest of the year.


    Barrick said it reduced its gold position by 850,000 ounces in the second quarter, leaving 84 per cent of its reserves unhedged.


    As well as expanding in Latin America and in Africa, Barrick is keeping an eye on Russia, where it acquired an interest last year through an investment in London-listed Highland Gold Mining Ltd. Highland has assets in Russia.


    Barrick, along with many other major gold producers, has been named as a potential bidder for the Sukhoi Log deposit in Russia.


    Reuters reported Wednesday that the Russian government had decided to put off a tender for the deposit and said the government might limit foreign participation.


    Barrick spokesman Vince Borg said Wednesday that Barrick's interest will be determined by the price and conditions set for the deposit.


    “Whenever [Russia] decides on terms of the auction or the process, we'll be there and assess it and determine whether or not we're interested.”


    Regarding the Moody's review, Mr. Borg said Barrick is embarking on an ambitious expansion program that will have an impact on the company's finances, so a review is not surprising. Barrick has the only A-rated balance sheet in the gold mining sector, he added.


    Barrick shares fell 27 cents to $25.37 (Canadian) on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Wednesday.

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    http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/0/26.html?id_issue=10703253


    Finance & Business


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Sep 16 2004 10:51AM


    Russia's gold, forex reserves at $90 bln on September 10
    MOSCOW. September 16 (Interfax) - Russia's gold and foreign currency reserves were at $90 billion on September 10, up from $89.1 billion on September 3, the Central Bank said in a press release Thursday.

  • Bei Brestel ist folgendes zu lesen:


    Die Weltwährung und das Gold


    Hinter verschlossenen Türen hat auf dem Lindauer-Nobelpreisträger-Treffen der kanadische Prof. F.A.Mudell den Vorschlag gemacht, als " Krönung der Globalisierung" der Weltwitrschaft auch eine " Weltwährung" einzuführen, eine Kombination zwischen den diveresen Dollar-Währungen, dem Euro und dem Yen ( vieleicht ach desbahlb der etwas eigenartige Umtauschkurs DM zu Euro ). Mundell hat die Liquidation des Restes der Goldwährung 1971 entschienden kritisiert. Für die Stabilität der Weltwirtschaft wäre eine Kopplung zwischen dem Goldpreis un den Devisenkurs dere wichtigsten Währungen der Welt von unschätzbarem Vorteil. Die anderen in Lindau anwesenden Ökonomie Professoren aus aller Welt hatten aber dafür sehr wenig übrig.Sie wiederholten ,was heutzutage gegen die Rückkehr zum Währungsgold spreche: Es sei inzwischen viel zu viel Papiergeld gedruckt und in Umlauf gesetzt worden.Die vorhandenen Goldmengen würden nur dann zu Deckung von Dollar, Euro und Yen reichen, wenn man den Goldpreis in Dollar [B]verzehnfachen würde. Das aber sei schlicht eine Utopie.
    Das Gold wird auch ohne Bezug auf die Währungen weier eine grosse Rolle auf dem Markt spielen,als " Unterlage" für die Gewährung von " Papiergled-Krediten" und als Rohstoff für Barren und Münzen, die einen eigenen Markt haben.
    Gruß hpoth

  • Dann noch diesen Hammer von Gold bullischer Meldung!!!


    Meldungen von Gold Fields Mineral Service, GFMS, haben in der etablierten Finanzwelt einen grossen Stellenwert, und haben praktisch auch offiziellen Charakter.


    Wer danach mittel-, oder langfristig immer noch Risiken, oder Gefahren in einem physischen Engagement in Gold sehen kann, dem ist nichts mehr zu entgegnen.


    Man sollte nicht nur über Gold, oder Silber diskutieren, sonden auch etwas davon kaufen!


    Die Zeit dazu scheint langsam knapp zu werden, zumindest zu den heutigen Tiefpreisen.


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru


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    http://www.busrep.co.za/index.…fSectionId=613&fSetId=304


    Thursday 16th September


    INTERNATIONAL

    Gold prices may increase, says GFMS

    September 16, 2004


    By Laura Humble


    London - Gold prices in 2005 might rise close to the 15-year high of $431.05 an ounce reached in April as the dollar weakened because of record US budget and trade deficits, GFMS, a London-based precious metals research group, said yesterday.


    Gold was fixed at $404.45 (about R2 620) an ounce in London yesterday afternoon.


    GFMS forecast in a report that the average price would be $407 an ounce in the second half of this year, kept above $390 by jewellery demand and a drop in sales by central banks and other institutions. Prices would probably rise after the US presidential election in November.


    Zitat

    "We expect concerns to grow that the status quo is untenable," said Philip Klapwijk, GFMS's managing director.


    Zitat

    "This could easily trigger a surge in gold investment."


    Prices might exceed $430 as a weakening dollar prompted investors to buy gold to hedge against further declines in US assets, Klapwijk said.


    A lower dollar also makes dollar-denominated gold cheaper to buy with other currencies. Gold rose 20 percent in 2003 as the dollar fell that much against the euro. Gold has fallen 2.4 percent this year amid speculation that the Federal Reserve would boost its benchmark interest rate, bolstering the dollar.


    Gold for immediate delivery has traded at an average price of about $400 an ounce in London since June 30, down from $401.49 in the first half.


    A victory for Democratic challenger John Kerry over President George W Bush in the US presidential election might accelerate the dollar's decline, GFMS said.


    Zitat

    "A Kerry victory could act as a catalyst," GFMS said. "Either way, a market depreciation in the dollar and an expected surge in gold investment look likely to take place as both deficits have continued to balloon."



    The US current account deficit, which measures trade and investments, grew to $166.2 billion in the second quarter. And the congressional budget office forecast last week that the federal budget deficit would reach $422 billion in the year ending on September 30.


    The US needs to attract about $1.8 billion a day to finance the current account deficit and keep the value of the dollar steady.


    Official sector gold sales might fall about 30 percent in the second half of 2004 from a year earlier, the same as in the first six months, GFMS said.


    The European Central Bank and 14 other central banks, which agreed in March to cap sales until the end of 2005, might sell less than their total limit of 500 tons a year.


    Net gold sales by the banks totalled 81 tons in the second quarter, GFMS said in July.


    Demand from fabricators, including jewellers, was expected to grow faster in the second half than the 7 percent pace of the first, GFMS said. Mine production would probably drop 1 percent after a 7 percent decline in the first half.


    Implied net disinvestment, or estimated selling by speculators, would probably decline to 65 tons from 143 tons in the first half as gold prices started to rise.


    Mining companies would probably buy back about 200 tons of gold previously sold forward, close to the 209 tons repurchased in the first half.

  • Gerade im Elliott-Board gefunden, man beachte den letzten Satz - der übrigens (jedenfalls für mich) das einzig wirklich absolut überzeugende Argument für Gold ist (für Silber natürlich auch).
    Und möglicherweise reicht ja EIN WIRKLICH STARKES Argument für die eigene Kaufentscheidung ?!
    Viele Grüße
    Spieler


    Marc Faber: The US economy is the next 9/11


    USA: Monday, September 13 - 2004 at 09:20


    The US economy is the next 9/11


    There are several reasons why it is likely that the US economy will weaken far more than is expected by the bullish Wall Street crowd, whose only interest is to get as many investors to invest in the stock market and then to churn the accounts in order to earn high commissions.
    So how weak will the US economy become? First of all one has to be concerned about the recent sharp money supply growth deceleration. The 12-months rate of growth in M2, at 3,6%, year-over-year, is at the lowest level since 1995 and the 13 week percentage change of MZM has now just turned negative....



    In sum, I still regard the upside potential for the US stock market to be limited and would sell strength rather than buy weakness. Still with a Bush victory now likely, the strength in the bond market, and the oversold position of high tech stocks, some additional gains are a possibility.


    However, bonds are now no longer over-sold and their upside potential appears to be limited too.


    We still like selected commodities such as Corn and Coffee, and especially Sugar and Orange Juice.



    Gold should be accumulated continuously, as it is the only sound money.


    http://www.ameinfo.com/news/Detailed/45122.html

    "So wie die Freiheit bleibt Gold nie lange dort, wo es nicht geschätzt wird."
    J.S.Morill in einer Rede vor dem U.S.-Senat am 28.01.1878.

  • warum sollen die Zentralbanken an einem niedrigen Goldpreis interesssiert sein ??


    @ TG, Kalle14


    Danke für die Reaktionen, schon 2 Tage her und der Goldpreis ist relativ stabil geblieben. :))


    Ich teile die bullische Einstellung, langfristig kann es nur aufwärts gehen. Die aufstrebenden Länder in Asien werden wie die Europäer in der Nachkriegszeit einen Teil ihrer Deviseneinnahmen in Gold anlegen. Washington wird das bestensfalls verzögern können.


    Unabhängig davon wird die explodierende Kaufkraft der Privaten in diesen Ländern, 2.5 – 3 Milliarden Menschen, die sich auch ein bischen Gold gönnen möchten, werden für eine gewaltige Nachfrage sorgen.


    Die Gefahr besteht in legislativen Massnahmen, wie schon bei Roosevelt. Leider können die Regierenden die Spielregeln jederzeit auch während des Spiels ändern. Dann allerdings werden nur unsere Enkel profitieren können.


    Der Preis kann dann auch 10-100 mal so hoch liegen und die Golddeckung wird wieder möglich. :)

    'Das Gold dem Einzelnen zu entziehen, ihn seines Anspruchs zu berauben, ist ihr Bestreben, während er es vor ihnen zu verbergen sucht. Sie >wollen sein Bestes<< - - - daher nehmen sie es ihm. Sie horten sein Gold in tiefen Tresoren und zahlen mit Papier, das täglich an Wert verliert.'
    ERNST JÜNGER; EUMESWIL, 1977

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com




    September 16 - Gold $404.50 down 10 cents – Silver $6.26 up 2 cents


    A Tale Of The Gold Companies / Silver Explosive


    Zitat

    All of the government's monetary, economic and political power, as well as its extensive propaganda machinery, will be enlisted in a constant battle to drive down the price of gold - but in the absence of any fundamental change in the nation's monetary, fiscal, and economic direction, simply regard any major retreat in the price of gold as an unexpected buying opportunity...Irwin A. Schiff


    GO GATA!!!


    As far as the trading day is concerned, I have very little to bring to your attention except that gold was capped by the bad guys again. The dollar fell .41 to 88.99, while the euro rose .32 to 128.10. Long-term US interest rate yields closed in new low ground with the 30-yr finishing the day at 113 21/32, up a steep 1 ¼ . As a tandem, both can be considered bullish factors for bullion prices.


    The way gold held up against the stronger dollar yesterday, it should have taken off on the Comex today with outside fundamental factors positive. While it came in close to $1 higher, the cabal said "No Mas" and then put it on the defensive all session long.


    The gold open interest rose 2334 contracts yesterday as the funds took on the Gold Cartel forces.


    Silver was firm the entire Comex trading period and feels like it wants to really run. The silver open interest only rose 56 contracts to 82,084. The shorts are not comfortable selling at these levels.


    Now for the best news of the day and most likely the reason the silver shorts are nervous. Just received a call from our STALKER source concerning the silver situation in London. We understand our silver dealer source is as excited about the upside as he ever gets. The market is very tight and getting more so every week. Dealers are paying 5%/6% premiums over spot to make purchases. He also tells us there are numerous buyers out there looking to secure 50,000 ounces with others looking to secure greater amounts. Perhaps this is why Morgan Stanley is so bullish.


    The silver action has been noticeably firm. We know why now. The cash markets for both gold and silver are superb. Both should rebuff The Gold Cartel’s efforts soon and take off. Silver could even become explosive!

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    The John Brimelow Report


    “Could India supply Standard’s “developments”?"


    Thursday, September 16, 2004


    Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.24, PM $6.61, with world gold at $404.20 and $404.80. Continuing well above legal import level. The rupee stabilized today (the stock market rose another 1%), but there appears widespread confidence in the country that further currency gains are to be expected. This, of course, will strengthen India’s gold importing.


    TOCOM (which is closed on Monday and Thursday next week) had the quietest day of the month, trading only the equivalent of 9,826 Comex lots, with the active contract unchanged. World gold was 25c above the NY close. Open interest edged up the equivalent of 148 Comex contracts. (NY yesterday traded 33,065 contracts. Open interest rose 2,334 lots.)


    Yesterday, as Refco Research bleakly remarks,


    "From open on the COMEX, gold futures were checked throughout the session at the 407 mark"


    With 20,000 contracts estimated to have traded by 10 AM yesterday, the initial charge must have been quite vigorous: but evidently the buyers got the message. Volume faded away, with the day’s estimate being only 43,000, and the actual being reported today 10,000 less. UBS claims that the selling was "long liquidation", if it was, then fresh buying must have been quite aggressive, to add over 7 tonnes net to the open interest.


    Several commentaries are quite impressed that gold did so well given the dollar action. HSBC:


    "Gold prices continue to hold around the USD405/oz level, a strong performance given the rally in the US dollar yesterday. The US dollar was the top performer amongst the major currencies as a bullish sentiment re-emerged…Against this background gold holding above the USD400/oz level is an impressive performance."


    This even caught the attention of The Gartman Letter, by no means a ready friend of gold:


    "The precious metals are stable, with gold actually holding quite well given the strength of the US dollar. Normally we would have expected gold to be down perhaps $3-5 /oz with the dollar 1.25 EURs firmer, for the correlation between the dollar and gold has been quite high of late. It is premature to make the cast that the correlation is about to weaken, but certainly this bears watching."


    I, of course, believe the cause is resilience in the physical marker, specifically buying from India facilitated by the rising rupee. Standard London comments:


    "Gold has clearly settled into a sideways trading pattern with a band of technical resistance between $407 and $410 capping the upside and support located between $398 and $395 underpinning the market. These parameters are likely to contain the gold price until fresh news or developments emerge…"


    India could be the required development.


    JB

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    CARTEL CAPITULTATION WATCH


    The US stock market gave up most of its gains, ending up only 13 at 10,244, while the DOG rose 8 to 1904.


    Crude oil was all over the place, taking out $43 per barrel on the downside at one point. Yet, by the close it clawed its way back to $44 per barrel, up 42 cents on the day.


    Something is very wrong out there. If the US economy is doing so well, as Wall Street and the Bush Administration says it is, then why are bonds doing this:


    30-year Treasury bond


    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/94


    Bonds moving up, such as they are, with the Fed raising rates suggests something is not right at all out there in the US economy.


    US economic news of the day, which surely had a good deal to do with the bond move:


    08:30 Jobless claims reported 333K vs. consensus 340K
    Prior week revised to 317K from 319K.
    * * * * *


    08:30 August CPI reported 0.1% vs. consensus 0.1%; ex-Food & Energy 0.1% vs. consensus 0.2%
    Prior reading unrevised from (0.1%); ex-Food & Energy unrevised from 0.1%.
    * * * * *


    Does anyone believe the CPI numbers these days? Certainly no one does who looks at what they are paying on a monthly basis for necessities.
    12:00 Sept. Philadelphia Fed reported 13.4 vs. consensus 25
    August reading 28.5.
    * * * * *


    NEW YORK, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Factory activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region slumped in September to its lowest level in more than a year, a survey showed on Thursday, spurring fears the economy's summer soft patch could extend into the fall.
    The Philadelphia Federal Reserve said its business activity index dropped to 13.4 in September from 28.5 in August, although components, including new orders improved. It was the lowest reading since July 2003. –END-


    The widely watched Philly report was a real bummer. That is the real world. Stock market players must be paying attention to what Mike Bolser has so aptly brought to your attention in his unique repo analysis.


    U.S. net capital inflows slow in July to $64.0 bln


    WASHINGTON, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Foreign investors showed continued interest in U.S. assets in July, though the pace of buying slowed from June, a Treasury Department report released on Thursday showed.


    Net inflows of capital totaled $64.0 billion in July, compared to an upwardly revised $74.0 billion in June. Initially, June net inflows had been reported at $71.8 billion. –END-



    GATA’s Mike Bolser:


    Hi Bill:


    The Federal reserve added $13 Billion in temporary repurchase agreements today and $.8 Billion in powerful permanent open market operations. This action pushed the intra-day pool over $74 Billion but it will slip back it $41.114 after the close. At this hour (10AM) the DOW is up slightly. I don't think it will fall today.


    Richard Russell said yesterday "It will be interesting to see if the DOW closes below its 200-day moving average". My take: With a repo pool topping $80 Billion don't bet against the DOW.


    DIVG Update: The MCDI may be turning down as the DIVG pma turns even farther
    UP.


    Even with a $2/ounce deep vee today (a steep dive exactly at the PM Fix time of 10AM) it looks as if the pattern of an upturn in the pma will continue but I'll have more data later.


    Betting against the dollar may be in the cards. My pma guidance shows the first inkling of a phase change to the down side for the MCDI. It is very slight at the moment but none-the-less, real. I take this position because the PM Fix and its own pma is turning up at the same time and this potential pattern was noticed several weeks ago. IF there is to be an MCDI/PM Fix pma cycle intertwining, then today is the maximum for the dollar and the minimum for the PM Fix pma traces.


    I should caution readers that the day-to-day public movements of the MCDI and the PM Fix aren't what they seem, in spite of the ocean of gold pundit propaganda offered as explanations. The pma is the real target in my view and short-tern movements are controlled noise.


    The HUI move yesterday was a head fake designed to shake longs off the real UP move under way.


    Russian Bear


    The Russian Central Bank reported in their last foreign currency holdings release, $90 Billion. That is large enough to cause some serious damage in the gold markets if they decide to "send a message" via the gold markets to the West about its nascent Georgian/ Chechnian adventures. The mood in the Kremlin is very dark these days.


    In a face-to-face meeting with President Mikhail Saakashvili on the sidelines of the CIS summit in Astana Thursday, Putin warned that neither economic nor military pressure from Georgia would solve the Abkazia problem (A Western province of Georgia with Russian leanings). Here is even more evidence of Russian geopolitical stress:


    Russia warns BP it can revoke oil licences


    Wed 15 September, 2004 13:58
    http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsPac...on=finance
    By Andrew Hurst


    http://p088.ezboard.com/fdowns…ssage?topicID=10109.topic


    MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia has warned that production licences of foreign and domestic oil companies can be torn up at will if the nation's fabulous natural wealth is not exploited on Moscow's terms…….


    ++++++++++++++++++++


    First it was YUKOS and its flamboyant US politico CEO, Khodorovsky. Then the tiny PAAS silver project was "absorbed" due to "licensing issues". And now we see the Russian Bear squeezing British Petroleum. The lesson here is that Vladimir Putin isn't a happy camper these days and he seems to be taking "profits".


    The Iraq quagmire gets worse by the day and here is another chilling observation. A close examination of recently destroyed Bradley vehicle pictures reveals no large craters. There is always a crater produced by the classical road side "bomb" devices. They are six-inch artillery shells and as such leave a tell-tale carter about 4-6 feet in diameter. The absence of craters suggests that another type of anti-tank weapon may be in play. A weapon that is more lethal. Let us hope that the situation resolves soon.


    IMF--Whistling through the graveyard


    And finally the IMF's hubris is brimming over these days:


    [SIZE=20[COLOR=red]]Global financial system is shock-proof, says IMF[/COLOR][/SIZE]


    Larry Elliott


    Thursday September 16, 2004 The Guardian


    http://www.guardian.co.uk/busine...54,00.html


    The world's financial system is in better shape than at any time since the pricking of the dotcom bubble and the September 11 terrorist attacks threw global markets into turmoil, the International Monetary Fund said yesterday. In an upbeat assessment of recent trends, the fund said it would take a major and long-lasting shock to upset a financial system now capable of riding out the collapse of a hedge fund or even a leading bank.


    The IMF said it would step up its monitoring of the exposure of the financial sector to the volatile energy market, in which oil prices rose to nearly $50 a barrel last month, but that the biggest current threat was complacency.


    "While it is obviously feasible that one or the other financial institution, such as a hedge fund or even a bank, might succumb to serious mistakes in risk management or to outright fraud, such incidents should be isolated cases with limited, if any, contagion to the system as a whole," the IMF said in its global financial stability report.


    END


    Mike


    More from Mike:


    Hi Bill:


    The Fed added more repos later in the morning total for a total add of $26.05 Billion (Including $.8 Billion in perms) and the new repo pool stays VERY high at $60.364 Billion. Rumor has it that this is the largest repo operation since 9/11. Oil isn't going anywhere today under hugely positive fundamentals so there is the likely recipient of the primary dealer's repo money. Petroleum is the main cause of the trade deficit disaster we see unfolding so the Fed may be focusing all it's paper on oil for the moment...until the next strategic commodities disaster befalls them.


    Mike


    Chuck checks in:


    I just want to add a quick observation regarding the gold shares. For almost two weeks the golds and the indices, with perhaps one exception, have not had a strong close. Plus, after a few minutes on the opening the indices have been usually down. This action is occurring as the indices are pressing against a breakout. To me this indicates that the gold buyers are more concerned about a setback than a potentially powerful move upward. This pattern has been helpful in the past in identifying bottoms. I believe this to be the case this time. If you are looking to buy the exploration or junior companies, I would not hesitate in doing so now. For good ideas, I strongly suggest Jay Taylor's excellent service, "miningstocks.com" If you haven't done so, buy a buffet of these companies at prices that we may never see again.


    Also, if you want to peek at a very unusual chart, look at Apollo gold which has been under the hand of relentless liquidation with extremely heavy volume during the past couple of months. This is classic bottoming action just as very heavy volume after a long run up very likely spells a major top. Emotions run highest at tops and bottoms and most investors and traders make the same wrong emotional decisions at these points. Chuck ikiecohen@msn.com


    Another price-fixing conspiracy makes the news:


    Bill,


    Heres another one for Dennis Gartman!!...but of course one would expect price fixing in a transparent and open market like the chip market...one would never expect anything nefarious in a secret, shrouded non-transparent market like the gold market!!


    Cheers
    Adrian


    Chipmaker Infineon Admits Price Fixing


    http://story.news.yahoo.com/ne…_te/infineon_price_fixing


    ***


    The Gold Cartel is in deep trouble because just as demand for bullion is accelerating all over the world, gold supply is on the wane for a myriad of reasons. Hedgers continue to reduce positions, which takes supply off the market; high-graded mines have seen their hay day; governments and the greenies are making life miserable for miners in various countries; and lack of exploration successes over the past many years means future new mine supply won’t be enough to replace depleted ones.


    Just a few examples of gold supply troubles that will add up as time goes by:


    *Last week the government of Eritrea (Minister of Energy and Mines) told Nevsun, Sunridge and Sanu to halt all activity until further notice. Whatever that dictum was really all about still remains a mystery. However, anyway you look at it the edict is disconcerting for shareholders in those companies and will affect future gold mining production in that country to some degree.


    *Business Day
    September 16, 2004


    Producer de-hedging accelerates in 2004




    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------



    Outstanding producer hedge positions were slashed by 209 tons in the six months to June, a sharp increase on the 43 tons cut in the six month period prior to that.


    This is one of the key findings of GFMS' latest report on the gold market - Gold Survey 2004 - Update 1.


    The significant fall left the delta adjusted hedge book at the end of June 2004 at a measured 1,997 tons, equivalent to 77% of 2003 annual mine production, the report says.


    The position represented a 9% drop from the position reported at end- December 2003.


    Commenting on the report, Senior Analyst Bruce Alway said: "It's worth pointing out that, on a quarterly basis, the pace of de-hedging accelerated progressively from the September quarter 2003. And there's every sign that this acceleration has continued into the second half of this year."


    He identified three main drivers behind producer de-hedging in the first half of the year.


    Firstly, hedged producers continued to reduce their cover in line with stated goals and in some cases exceeded these targets.


    Of equal importance was merger activity.


    Two major deals saw hedge books exchange hands and, in one case, substantially cut and, in another, completely closed out.


    Finally, Alway highlighted the significance of book restructuring which contributed not only to an overall drop in protected volumes but, more importantly, had a marked impact on the make up of the global book itself, which was further concentrated in simple forward sales.


    On a company basis, AngloGold Ashanti's combined hedge book was reduced by 62 tons from their respective positions reported at end-December 2003.


    Barrick reduced its outstanding position by 51 tons, whilst a major book restructure completed by Newcrest resulted in a 22 tons decline in their delta adjusted position.


    Other noteworthy contributors to the half yearly drop in the producer book were Placer Dome (19 tons), Avgold (18 tons) and Cambior (15 tons).


    De-hedging is forecast to hold at elevated levels of over 200 tons in the second half.


    The report points out that in the light of recent events - the announcement by Thistle Mining in August that it had bought back around 15 tons of contracts; news from New Zealand that Oceana Gold closed a 29 tons position and, lastly, the news at the end of August that Sons of Gwalia (who at end-June had a 52 tons delta adjusted hedge position) had been put into voluntary administration - the base case level of 200 tons of de-hedging could well be a minimum.
    I-Net Bridge


    *Peru Yanacocha - roadblocks could hurt gold output


    Thu Sep 16, 2004 12:07 PM ET LIMA, Peru, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Gold output at Yanacocha, Latin America's largest gold mine, could be affected if roadblocks set up by Peruvian farmers protesting gold exploration continue for another month, the mine said on Thursday.


    The roadblocks, which farmers set up at the start of September, could also put at risk Yanacocha's 2004 gold production target of 2.9 million to 3 million ounces if they remain in place for a prolonged period, said Carlos Santa Cruz, a director of U.S.-based Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , which has majority ownership of Yanacocha.


    "If (the roadblocks) are in place for a short period of time, then the situation will be manageable ... But if they are maintained for a month longer then, obviously, they will have impact on year-end production," Santa Cruz, director of Newmont's South American operations, told Reuters. –END-


    *9/15 Zimplats
    Zimbabwe's state-controlled Herald newspaper quoted President Mugabe as saying the government would demand a half share in the country's mines. In March, Zimbabwe's Mines Minister proposed that foreign companies sell 49% of their operations to Zimbabweans, though suspended any new law introduction while it consulted with industry. –END-


    Some feedback on the sort of coverage the Sprott Special Report, "NOT FREE, NOT FAIR: The Long-Term Manipulation of the Gold Price," is receiving in the Australian brokerage community:


    Hi Bill,
    Here's a copy of a digest of the report sent out by major brokers in Australia.
    Keep on bashing the buggers, consistent energy will bring them down...
    GO GATA!
    cheers Peter Douglass :


    OZEQUITIES NEWSLETTER
    GoldPriceManipulation.doc
    ozequities@mail.smartchat.net.au


    -END-


    Little by little GATA’s message is making the rounds and I believe, as a result of the Sprott Report, we are making quiet progress. Therefore, NOW is the time for the GATA ARMY to pick up its pace to do what we can to make things happen and eventually win the day.


    It is very important that all of us spread the word to gold companies of all shapes and sizes that GATA has been out there working in THEIR behalf for almost six years now. This is what is so strange. By the way various gold company CEO’s respond to us, you would think we were their worst enemies. It is bewildering. Seems they are more concerned with not ruffling feathers than getting to the truth about their own market. Going to the right industry cocktail parties, or not offending the "in crowd" is more important to them than doing what is best for the shareholders.


    There can be no more important issue to gold company shareholders than the price of gold. The difference between $400 gold and $500 gold is staggering. Costs have risen so much the past couple of years that $400 gold doesn’t cut it anymore. Because of those rising costs, $400 gold today is the same as $325 gold a couple of years ago. This comes from two widely respected veterans of the industry.


    The Sprott Report and the work of the GATA camp are critical for every gold company - even for the exploration firms, because it won’t mean much to find gold at these prices, levels which are not attractive from future corporate profit standpoints. The more and more people realize the GATA camp is correct about the real central bank gold picture; that their holdings are only around 16,000 tonnes versus the 31,000+ tonnes they say they have, the sooner more people will rush in to buy bullion at these price levels and the faster the price will explode.


    Therefore, it is mind-boggling gold company CEO’s don’t embrace the Sprott Report and GATA’s findings and take it to the mainstream gold world and ask them to refute our findings in detail. There can be no more important issue for a gold company CEO to undertake. If they disagree with us, then they should refute our findings in writing with detailed backup to satisfy shareholders they have done their homework on this most serious matter. As shareholders, all of us should demand the naysayers respond in a professional and serious manner.


    It’s time to stop pussyfooting around with the mainstream gold world and the companies we are trying to help. This is more like it:


    Dear Julia Hasiwar:


    I am a Wheaton River shareholder, and I'm wondering if you've noticed that the price of gold is more manipulated than Mortimer Snerd? It's obvious to me and I'm just a small investor with no background in such matters, no experience as a trader. Yet it's as plain as Kansas, so I'm wondering, loudly, why you gold mining concerns don't do something about it. Gold being held back might benefit hedgers, but certainly not the likes of WHT.


    Please, don't hand me some stock answer; tell the truth. If there's one area where there should be solidarity amongst the mining companies, the blatant market manipulations that hold gold down should be it. Frankly, I'm a little tired of the spineless wonders that have so much of my money invested in their companies. You know, I'm holding almost 300,000 gold mining shares and I should be buying myself a Gulfstream by now. In fact, that Gulfstream should be due for a maintenance overhaul, not exist in my imagination only.


    Thank you.


    Very truly yours,
    Marilyn A. Guinnane

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    CARTEL CAPITULTATION WATCH



    A Tale of The Gold Companies


    Wendell Leytham received two responses from gold companies. They are like night and day:


    From: Robert Doyle (rdoyle@bolivargold.com)
    Sent: Thursday, September 16, 2004 11:21 AM
    To: wendelll@gfa.org
    Subject: RE: questions from a shareholder


    Dear Wendell;


    As for the Sprott Report, I have glanced at it and have no opinion, nor do we plan to distribute other peoples’ copyrighted material on our website. We do not currently support the WGC, and have no immediate plans to do so.
    Regards,
    Rob Doyle


    All the effort GATA and Sprott have made to assist Bolivar Gold and this is the thanks and effort they give us!


    [B]Then:


    Bill,
    Here's a response I got from Fjordland which is my smallest holding. A good response. Too bad it is my smallest, because it has been my best performer this year.


    Wendell
    From: info@fjordlandex.com [mailto:info@fjordlandex.com]


    Hi Wendell,


    Sorry for the delay - I've been catching up on a couple of hundred emails sent to me while away at the Vegas gold conference.


    I haven't read Sprott's report in full however I believe gold's price has indeed been "manipulated or managed". You just have to look at the trading pattern of gold the past few years. There are many trading irregularities that indicate market intervention. Recently this has been less noticeable probably because of the legal case brought against the alleged manipulators. I look forward to reading the complete report.


    We're not part of the WGC and I don't know enough about them to comment on their worthiness.
    Regards,
    John Gomez


    Michael Power also received two responses from gold companies which are like night and day also:



    Hi Bill:
    Last week I e-mailed the presidents of 8 gold producers included in the HUI. (Golden Star, Kinross, Bema, Agnico - Eagle, Glamis, Iam Gold and Newmont). To date 2 replys. Please see attachments.
    Greatly appreciate GATA's efforts.
    Regards
    Michael


    This is the email which was sent, followed by a response from Sean Boyd, CEO of Agnico-Eagle and then by Bob Buchan , CEO of Kinross:


    From: Michael Power [mailto:mikejanepower@shaw.ca]
    Sent: Wednesday, September 08, 2004 2:49 PM
    To: Hazel Winchester
    Subject: Sprott Asset Managements Report - Not Free, Nor fair: Long Term Manipulation of the Gold Price


    Dear Mr Boyd:
    As a shareholder I want to know if you, your management team and board of director's have read the recent Sprott Report NOT FREE, NOT FAIR: The Long Term Manipulation of the Gold Price. (available at http://www.sprott.com).


    We the shareholders are being ripped off by the manipulation of the gold price by the Gold Cartel. To my knowledge you and your board have not responded to this report in the media and worse not directly to your shareholders.


    Where do you and the board of directors stand? You should be maximizing profits for your shareholders instead of remaining silent and acquiesing to the market manipulation of the price of gold.


    I await your reply.
    Respectfully
    Michael Power


    Dear Mr. Powers, Please see below response from Mr. Sean Boyd to your email.


    Thanks


    Hazel Winchester
    Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited
    Email: hwinchester@agnico-eagle.com




    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------



    From: Sean Boyd
    Sent: Monday, September 13, 2004 9:53 AM
    To: Hazel Winchester
    Subject: RE: Sprott Asset Managements Report - Not Free, Nor fair: Long Term Manipulation of the Gold Price



    Dear Mr Power


    Thank you for your email.


    I have received a copy of the report directly from John Embry.


    I have not had a chance to read the report.


    Once I do I will be in touch with Mr Embry to get his views on how the gold industry can be helpful.We have talked to him about this topic in the past.


    As for Agnico we were one of the first gold company contributors to GATA so we have not sat back.


    We are the ONLY company that has never sold its production forward to the bullion dealers and have spoken out against hedging consistently for over 20 years.A lot of the companies who now speak out against hedging were aggressive hedgers who worked closely with the bullion dealers in the past.


    Respectfully
    Sean Boyd


    Then, we have the response from Mr. Bob Buchan, CEO of Kinross, who can be reached at:


    bob.buchan@kinross.com


    "Yes Michael, I have read it, and I am not persuaded"....Bob Buchan



    OK Mr. Buchan, I am sure you know John Embry and of the effort he put into this Special Report. Since this effort was made in behalf of your shareholders, would you please explain your reasoning in detail. This sort of response disses John Embry. Not to come back with a more professional retort is unacceptable.


    The following agree in principle with GATA and Sprott Asset Management that the gold market has been manipulated:


    *Frank Veneroso, who wrote "The Gold Book" in 1998
    *Ferdi Lips, ex-Swiss banker, who wrote "The Gold Wars" last year
    *Jim Sinclair, known as "Mr.Gold" during the last big gold run-up in the late 70’s
    *Peter George, the Mr. Gold of South Africa
    *Oleg V. Mizhayskov, Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia


    Mr. Buchan: What do they know that you can’t seem to comprehend?


    Finally, many Golden Star Resources shareholders are beginning to receive the following note from Alan Marter, CFO of the firm:


    Many thanks for your email and your continuing interest in Golden Star.


    Golden Star believes strongly in gold and supports a transparent, freely trading gold market in any possible way. It is for this reason that Golden Star has actively (including financially) supported GATA since 1999 and why Golden Star, upon the election of Chris Thompson as Chairman of the World Gold Council, decided to join that organization.


    Some had argued that the World Gold Council was a moribund organization that needed change from within. We envisaged that Chris Thompson would drive that change and that companies that believe in gold, such as Golden Star, should join the World Gold Council to help the process of change from within. We are therefore proud to be associated with a changing World Gold Council (at a cost of 45 cents per ounce) that focuses its energies on all aspects of gold demand; investment, industrial uses and jewellery. Historically the largest portion of the World Gold Council's efforts has been to stimulate jewellery and to make gold more competitive in this market place relative to other precious metals as this market accounts for the majority of gold demand. These efforts have paid dividends and gold jewellery demand has been increasing despite a rising gold price. More recent World Gold Council sponsored efforts have been and are being made to stimulate gold as an investment by helping investors learn how to buy gold and to establish mechanisms for investors to trade in physical gold by way of exchange traded funds (referred to as ETFs) backed by gold bullion.


    Being long term supporters of GATA we largely agree with the findings of John Embry's report "Not Free, Not Fair" and believe that more work is needed to understand the extent price manipulation and achieve a gold market that is transparent, free of manipulation and an accurate barometer of the global economy and currency market. We have initiated discussions with the World Gold Council and will be urging them to investigate the various points made in the report. As members of the World Gold Council, we will also be trying to stimulate dialogue and discussion on the gold market as commented on in the report.


    We are convinced that gold will move higher and therefore Golden Star has not historically hedged its gold production and now has none of its gold production committed in any form whatsoever. (However, we believe that "anti-hedging" would be too speculative and not in the best interest of our shareholders.)


    I trust that this addresses your questions and concerns. If not, please email me with any additional questions or concerns that you may have.


    Regards,
    Allan Marter


    At the Matisse Table:


    *Chris Powell’s rebuttal to Dennis Gartman. Chris utilizes information in the public domain which explains how obvious the gold price manipulation is. Chris, who has unselfishly worked his butt off for almost six years to help companies like Kinross, lays it all out in an easy read manner and gives you fodder for your own emails and letters.


    I just learned Canada’s Globe and Mail published Gartmans’s full commentary on the Sprott Report and GATA with his picture in the paper. Do you think they will print Chris Powell’s retort?


    *"Buried Treasure" – an article by Josephine Mason of London’s Metal Bulletin. Josephine was delightful and a real pro. It is too bad she ran into the usual bunch of dingbats in the mainstream gold world in London. First, these cowards didn’t have enough gumption to allow their names to be used, hiding behind anonymity. Then, they come up such juvenile attacks on GATA such as:


    When asked for his opinion on Murphy, one high-profile London gold analyst even quips: "What - printable thoughts?"


    "If you believe it, then the moon's made of cheese," he adds.


    ***


    Taking criticism is part of the game when you do what I do. However, these Neanderthal so-called analysts are embarrassingly silly with their inane comments, have little professional integrity and refuse to debate the GATA camp. Talk about a bunch of lightweights!


    The gold shares continue to diddle around. The XAU lost .28 to 93.17, while the HUI gained .68 to 206.43.


    Energy seems to be building everywhere to send the prices of gold and silver SHARPLY higher!


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


    MIDAS

  • Oil is heading for $58 a barrel. Why $58? A sketch is worth a thousand words:


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/img2004/belk2.jpg]


    As we can see on this market, there is an impulsion movement which started at the end of 2001, driving oil price from $18 up to $38 in February 2003: an almost $20-rise in a single bounce. Then there was a sharp correction which brought the market back to $25 in May 2003. Since then, oil has started a new and apparently strong upward trend since it broke through the famous $38 - resistance point. If we add to this value the $20 - amplitude of the first impulsion, we get the coming target of $58/barrel for November 2004.


    Moustafa Belkhayate


    moustafa@bam-gold-fund.com

  • [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.ftd.de/images/ft_logo_homepage.gif]


    http://www.ftd.de/pw/in/1094894184270.html?nv=hptn


    Aus der FTD vom 17.9.2004 http://www.ftd.de/usa

    US-Geheimdienste geben Irak auf

    Von Hubert Wetzel, Washington, und James Drummond, Bagdad


    Die amerikanischen Geheimdienste warnen vor einem Bürgerkrieg im Irak. In einem Bericht an US-Präsident George W. Bush rechnen sie nicht mehr damit, dass das Land in absehbarer Zeit befriedet werden kann.


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.ftd.de/FtdImage/bus_h,3.jpg]US-Präsident George W. Bush


    Der Bericht vom Juli dieses Jahres beschreibt für 2005 drei mögliche Szenarien, die alle den optimistischen Vorhersagen der US-Regierung über Fortschritte im Irak widersprechen: Bestenfalls könnte ein instabiler Staat entstehen, der weiterhin mit großen Sicherheitsproblemen kämpfe. Schlimmstenfalls könnte der Irak in einen Bürgerkrieg abrutschen. Mit einer wesentlichen Besserung sei in den kommenden 18 Monaten nicht zu rechnen. Seit Juli hat sich die Sicherheitslage im Irak noch verschlimmert.


    Das Weiße Haus bestätigte am Donnerstag die Existenz der als geheim klassifizierten Analyse aller 15 amerikanischen Geheimdienste - versuchte sie allerdings herunterzuspielen. Denn der Bericht könnte für Bush, der stets die "Fortschritte" beim Wiederaufbau im Irak lobt, zum Problem im Wahlkampf werden. Bush beharrte denn auch auf seiner optimistischen Vision für den Irak. "Dieses Land ist auf dem Weg zur Demokratie", sagte er bei einem Wahlkampfauftritt. Anders als noch vor wenigen Tagen legte er sich aber nicht mehr darauf fest, dass spätestens Ende Januar 2005 Wahlen im Irak stattfinden werden, und erwähnte die "anhaltenden Gewalttaten" in dem Land.


    Verschiebung des Wahltermins zeugt neue Konflikte


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.ftd.de/FtdImage/annan_kl.jpg]Uno-Generalsekretär Kofi Annan


    Erst einen Tag zuvor hatte Uno-Generalsekretär Kofi Annan allgemeine Wahlen angesichts der gegenwärtigen Sicherheitslage für unmöglich erklärt. Damit rief er am Donnerstag unter Iraks schiitischen politischen Führern Protest hervor. Es sei zu früh, den Termin aufzugeben, sagte der von den USA eingesetzte Präsident Ghasi al-Jawar. Der einflussreiche Großajatollah Ali al-Sistani hatte Mitte des Jahres der Einsetzung einer Übergangsregierung nur unter der Bedingung freier Wahlen im Januar zugestimmt. Eine Verschiebung könnte einen neuen Konflikt zwischen den USA und al-Sistani auslösen. Der schiitische Ajatollah gilt als eine der wenigen stabilisierenden Kräfte im Irak.


    Das US-Geheimdienstdokument wurde kurz nach der offiziellen Übergabe der Macht in Bagdad an eine provisorische irakische Regierung ausgearbeitet. Seitdem nahmen die Angriffe auf US-Truppen zu, die Zahl der gefallenen Amerikaner stieg auf insgesamt über 1000 Tote. Auch die Gewalt gegen Ausländer und Iraker, die mit den US-Truppen oder der Übergangsregierung zusammenarbeiten, nimmt zu. In den vergangenen Tagen starben über 200 Menschen bei Anschlägen. Guerillakämpfer nehmen zudem immer wieder Geiseln. Die USA bestätigten am Donnerstag, dass in Bagdad zwei Amerikaner und ein Brite entführt wurden, die für ein Bauunternehmen arbeiten.


    Annan bezeichnet Irak-Krieg als illegal


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.ftd.de/FtdImage/kerr_y,1.jpg]John Kerry


    Der demokratische Präsidentschaftskandidat John Kerry wirft der Bush-Regierung vor, die Amerikaner über die wahre Lage im Irak zu belügen. Auch Republikaner kritisieren die Regierung inzwischen. "Wir haben hier vor dem Krieg blind-optimistische Vorhersagen von der Regierung gehört", sagte der republikanische Vorsitzende des Auswärtigen Ausschusses im US-Senat, Richard Lugar, am Mittwoch. "Wie blödsinnig das war, sehen wir jetzt. Dass es keine ausreichende Planung gab, sehen wir jetzt."


    Annan bezeichnete am Donnerstag die US-geführte Invasion des Irak als "illegal". Es habe vom Uno-Sicherheitsrat keine Genehmigung für den Militärschlag gegeben. Nach der Uno-Charta, die nur vom Sicherheitsrat abgesegnete Kriege und Selbstverteidigung erlaube, sei der Irak-Krieg damit völkerrechtswidrig, sagte Annan.

    © 2004 Financial Times Deutschland , © Illustration: AP

  • Eine Zins Erhöhung der EZB würde dem Dollar mit Sicherheit nicht sehr gut bekommen!


    Dem Gold Preis jedoch, auch wenn es einigen Lesern etwas unlogisch erscheinen mag, würde es mehr als gut tun.


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.ftd.de/images/ft_logo_homepage.gif]


    http://www.ftd.de/pw/eu/1095356276558.html?nv=hptn


    Aus der FTD vom 17.9.2004

    Exklusiv: IWF warnt vor Zinserhöhung in Europa

    Von Mark Schieritz, Frankfurt


    Der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) warnt die Europäische Zentralbank vor einer schnellen Zinsanhebung. Die EZB hatte ihren geldpolitischen Ton in jüngster Zeit verschärft.


    Nach FTD-Informationen empfiehlt der IWF der Notenbank in seinem neuen Weltwirtschaftsausblick, den Niedrigzinskurs beizubehalten, bis sich die Binnennachfrage in der Euro-Zone stabilisiert hat und die Erholung der Konjunktur selbsttragend wird. Der Bundesverband deutscher Banken (BdB) wandte sich ebenfalls gegen eine baldige Anhebung der Leitzinsen.


    Die EZB hatte ihren geldpolitischen Ton in jüngster Zeit verschärft. Ökonomen werteten dies als Signal, dass sie eine Anhebung ihres Leitzinses vorbereitet und sich damit dem weltweiten Trend zu höheren Zinsen anschließt. Einige Experten erwarten den Schritt bereits im Herbst. Die meisten Marktteilnehmer rechnen damit allerdings erst zur Jahreswende, wie sich an Terminkontrakten ablesen lässt. Derzeit liegt der Leitzins der EZB auf einem Rekordtief von zwei Prozent.


    Impulse aus Europa notwendig


    Hintergrund der IWF-Warnung sind offenbar auch Bedenken, die EZB könne durch eine frühe Zinsanhebung die Konjunktur in der Euro-Zone zu einem Zeitpunkt bremsen, an dem sich die Wirtschaft in anderen Regionen wie Japan und den USA abschwächt und Impulse aus Europa deshalb besonders nötig wären. Der IWF veröffentlicht seinen Wirtschaftsausblick in zwei Wochen, kleinere Korrekturen sind noch möglich.


    Die Euro-Wirtschaft ist im zweiten Quartal um ein halbes Prozent gewachsen. Die Konjunktur wird bislang aber vor allem durch den Export gestützt. Konsum und Investitionen sind in den meisten Euro-Staaten dagegen bislang noch schwach.


    Europas Sonderstellung


    "Für die EZB besteht gegenwärtig kein zinspolitischer Handlungsbedarf",


    erklärte auch der Bankenverband. Er verwies darauf, dass die mittelfristigen Inflationsaussichten günstig seien. So sei die Gefahr gering, dass der Ölpreisanstieg zu höheren Löhnen führe und so das allgemeine Preisniveau nach oben treibe.


    Wenn sich die EZB der empfohlenen abwartenden Haltung anschließt, würde die Euro-Zone ihre geldpolitische Sonderstellung ausbauen. Nachdem Amerikaner, Briten, Australier, Kanadier und Schweizer angesichts einer besseren Konjunktur ihre Zinsen angehoben haben, folgte am Donnerstag auch die Zentralbank Brasiliens.


    Allerdings teilen nicht alle Ökonomen die Position des IWF. Die konservative Forschungsgruppe ECB Observer forderte die EZB auf, die Leitzinsen bis Mitte 2005 auf drei Prozent anzuheben. Denn die hohe Liquidität sorge für Preisrisiken. Die EZB peilt eine Teuerung von unter zwei Prozent an. Im August lag die Inflation in der Euro-Zone bei 2,3 Prozent. Die EZB erwartet aber, dass sie 2005 wieder unter zwei Prozent sinkt.



    © 2004 Financial Times Deutschland

  • sorry,nochmal



    http://www.TAC2000.de


    das Beste,aws ich seit langem gelesen habe,aber lest selbst.



    extrel,



    Die Zinsen stellen doch den Effekt dar,das Geld an sich interessant zu machen.Gerade durch die Zinsen,glauben die Menschen doch erst,an die Entstehung eines Mehrwertes.Ohne Zinsen wäre das FIAT MONEY
    völlig unakzeptabel und die Menschen würden sofort wieder Sachwert orientiert handeln.Mit den Zinsen ist doch erst die psyhologische Täuschung der Menschen möglich geworden.
    Wenn ein Staat dann seine Währung konvertierbar machen will,muss er sofort seine Edelmetalldeckung in New York abliefern,ansonsten würde er das Spiel unserer lieb gewordenen Freunde empfindlich stören.


    Grüsse


    Kalle

  • kalle14,


    ich deute deine Antwort als Bestätigung meines Vorschlages, die Zinsen abzuschaffen. Man kann natürlich jetzt schon diesem Geldsystem den Rücken kehren und sein Geld z. B. in physische, unverzinsliche Ware anlegen, die unverderblich, beliebig teilbar, etwas knapp, nicht herstell- oder vermehrbar, weltweit akzeptiert und heiß begehrt ist. Gibt es sowas? :rolleyes:
    Das allein würde natürlich nicht genügen. Man müsste eine Steuerreform durchführen, die den Namen verdient und an die Grundstücksfrage herangehen. Sind natürlich nicht meine Ideen, sondern habe ich in einem Buch gelesen (Geld ohne Zinsen und Inflation, von Margrit Kennedy). Ich habe mich aber schon früher oft gefragt, wie es sein kann, dass man nur dadurch, dass man schon viel Geld hat, ohne Arbeit noch mehr bekommen kann.


    cu


    extrel

  • extrel


    Zinsen abzuschaffen, das hört sich eigentlich auf den ersten Blick ganz verlockend an. Nachdem ich mir aber überlegt habe was dieser Gedanke an Nachteilen mit sich bringen kann. Bin ich dagegen.


    Möchte meine Wohnung nicht unbedingt ohne Miet-ZINSEN zu erhalten vermieten. Mein Fiat Money, leider komme auch ich nicht ganz ohne aus damit, möchte ich den Banken nicht ganz kostenlos überlassen. Im umgekehrten Falle, würde ich wohl auch kaum Zinslose Kredite von meiner Bank erhalten um irgend eines meiner Vorhaben finanzieren zu können.


    Die heutige irrwitzige Schuldensituation in den allermeisten Länder dieser Welt würde sofort, und ich meine sofort, zum Zusammenbruch unseres Fiat Money Systems führen. Es würde ja wohl niemand ernsthaft erwägen seinem überschuldeten Staat (sein?) Geld ohne Zinsen zur Verfügung stellen.


    Zinsen für "Fiat Money" sind wirklich in sich gesehen selbstzerstörend, und zumeist höchst unfair, trügerisch, und vielfach auch noch völlig unproduktiv. Das Problem der Zinsen, und Zinseszinsen für "Fiat Money" wird sich jedoch früher, oder später von selbst lösen, weil wie bei einem Kettenbrief am Ende alles zusammenbricht, und nur die Initiatoren unseres heutigen Fiat Zinssystems, oder Menschen mit Weitsicht die bereits in Edelmetalle, oder auch günstig bewertete Imobilien/Grundstücke, Oel, Gas, etc. investiert haben, am Ende die Gewinner sind. Der grosse Rest der Menschen dürfte darum schlussendlich fast alles verlieren. Durch einen völligen Vertrauensverlust in Fiat Papierwährungen, durch eine schleichenden Geld Entwertung, wie sie ja bekanntlich bereits seit der Abschaffung von Gold, und Silber gedeckten Währungen stattfindet, durch eine Hyperinflation, oder auch durch eine Rezession die im Effekt die Menschen Arbeitslos macht, und durch die daraus entstehenden Finanzprobleme praktisch enteignet, werden die Vermögenswerte der Masse in den Besitz der Initiatoren unseres Zins System umverteilt.


    Obwohl es vielleicht für einige sehr verlockend wäre, Fiat Geld ohne Zinsen zu erhalten, würde ich die Zinsen nicht abschaffen wollen. Es ist einfach gesagt nicht machbar, und würde zum einem totalen Chaos führen.


    Was ich für viel wichtiger, viel wirkungsvoller, und auch viel nützlicher halte für die grosse Masse der Menschen, als eine Abschaffung der Zinsen, ist die Abschaffung unseres (Fiat) " Fraktional Banking Systems". Das einigen wenigen Menschen, zu Lasten vieler Menschen ermöglicht "Werte aus dem Nichts zu schaffen",(Fiat Money), und dafür wie ich überzeugt bin völlig unnötig, und unberechtigt, auch noch Zinsen dafür zu verlangen.


    Obwohl dieses "Fraktional Banking" System völlig legal zu sein scheint (warum das überhaupt legal sein kann, bleibt mir bis heute ein Rätsel), kann ich nicht einsehen, warum zum Bsp. einer privaten Firma wie der FED das Recht vom Parlament eingeräumt wird Geld einfach so zum Selbstkostenpreis drucken zu dürfen, oder noch einfacher, durch das betätigen einiger Computer Tasten, Milliarden-, oder Billionen-Werte über Nacht, oder kontuinierlich über lange Zeit aus dem Nichts erschaffen zu dürfen, und dafür vom amerikanischen Staat, oder indirekt über die Steuern aller US Bürger, zumeist noch hohe Zinsen abzuverlangen. (Aehnliches gilt ja zum Teil auch für europäische Zentralbanken.)


    Gegen Zinsen ist meiner Meinung nach nichts einzuwenden, wenn diese Zinsen angemessen, nicht willkürlich, nicht variabel, oder für das Ueberlassen von Sachwerten, oder eines echten, nicht derivativen Wertes bezahlt werden, oder bezahlt werden müssen.


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru

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