Our world from a London point of view:
Good afternoon Bill,
It would seem that the moment of truth has arrived for the gold shorts. Watch for the steam to start coming out of the weak joints in the pipes, metaphorically speaking.
The dilemma is this:
As I write at 11:15 am Eastern Time, spot gold is trading at $431, $6.70 above the Comex close, but only$3.85 above the close used by CNBC at the 4:00 pm NYSE close.
Which price will the $6 rule be invoked on?
At the price of $431 the only gold shorts making money are those who managed to take a position on April 1st this year, when spot gold hit $433 intraday. The reality is that at least 99% of all shorts have to be underwater, with some of them losing serious money. If the gold price continues to rise, sooner, rather than later, some if not all of these shorts will have to cover their positions. The result will be akin to trying to put out a fire using gasoline.
As regards the gold shares, the shorts and those who had sold calls are out in force protecting their positions and trying to prevent investment interest spilling into the stocks. For instance, take a look at one of your favourites, GSS, down 22c at $4.84 as I write. For what other reason would the stock price drop on a $6 rise in the gold price? Has the company made a negative announcement?
No doubt the gold newsletter sages will say that this portends a fall in the gold price, since gold shares always lead the metal. Personally, I think it is no more than an effort to paint the charts in an effort to protect short positions, which will be of short term effect only. Again, watch for the steam.
Best wishes
Ian