Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

The John Brimelow Report

India buying: The breakout will look like this

Thursday, November 4th 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $5.02, PM $8.25, with world gold at $427.30 and $426.80. A little thin, and lavishly ample, for legal imports. This is basis Bombay: other Indian reporting cities were more robust in the morning. The rupee strengthened to an import-helpful 5 month high today.

Gold moved up sharply on good volume in ACCESS trading yesterday afternoon in NY. TOCOM was a bystander – volume was down 47% to only 13,831 Comex equivalent. Both Mitsui-HK and Barclays report that the upswing was stopped by "heavy physical selling" in the Asian morning.

The ACCESS based nature of the rally suggests that a good part of Monday’s selling was shorting, which was being covered last night and this morning. But the Indian prices and of course the general dollar decline today are conducive to the quadruple $430-32 top finally being overcome. Since this is also a multi-year top, the prospects for a substantial advance powered by technical opportunists are material.

This was caught well by gold’s new friend, Dennis Gartman, writing very early this morning:

"SPOT GOLD; One Consolidation After Another, It Makes Its Way Steadily Higher:

One really can't help but be fascinated by the relentless manner in which gold (herein priced in US dollar terms) continues to trend higher. Certainly there is someone or something selling gold at the $428-431 level that has "kept a lid" on prices since late last year, but it would appear that it is but a matter of time until that resistance is

overcome and prices head to new highs once more. We are bullish and we are long. We look to become longer still.

He subsequently adds:

"Regarding our real interest at the moment, gold, we are bullish of it, and have been for quite some while. Firstly, not wishing to continue a long standing "debate" with the people from GATA, we have again gotten a number of "notes" from GATA followers who continue to take us to task for our doubts concerning their central thesis that the central banks and Wall Street/Bay Street/Lombard Street are conspiratorially allied in trying to keep gold prices down. We are bullish of gold, as are they; however, we are still considered "apostate" for we are not bullish for the same reasons that they are. We can only smile and say "Thanks" when confronted by GATA's followers.

Nonetheless, we are indeed bullish of gold, and the trend is clearly still upward. Resistance at the $428-431 level is formidable, and it shall almost certainly be necessary for the EUR to rush upward through 1.2850 (which we view more and more likely) before the upper end of this resistance in spot gold is overcome. It shall be, however, and we shall be patient, awaiting a breakthrough before we add to our already rather sizeable holdings of gold via gold shares. Patience, rather than "im-" is rather necessary therefore.

Finally regarding gold, we note that Prudential has analysed the holdings of gold by various governments around the world. The conclusions drawn are two fold: Firstly, gold holdings by reserve banks have fallen a bit more than 3.0% over the course of the past two years; Secondly, the sellers have been either European or N. American countries, while the buyers have been Asian and S. American. The sellers have been Switzerland, Portugal, the UK, Canada, the Netherlands and Greece; the buyers have been China, Venezuela and Argentina. We are not certain what conclusions we are to draw from this "news," but we'll take some time to consider it. We are open to suggestions.

-END-

As remarked before, Gartman has a sizable institutional clientele, and his willingness to say this is partly a function of his listeners being willing to hear.

This looks very serious.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW rocketed 177 to 10,314, while the DOG gained another 19 to 2023. Right it while you can.

The dollar fell .13 to 84.63, a new low. It fell against all currencies except the pound.

The euro gained .43 to 128.60, a new all-time high.

Oil fell over $2 per barrel to $48.82. Not sure what that is all about.

The bonds continue to move up quietly: 113 19/32, up 5/32. Not sure what that is all about either.

US Economic stuff:

08:30 Jobless claims for w/e 10/30 reported 332K vs. consensus 340K
Prior week revised to 351K from 350K
* * * * *

08:30 Jobless claims for w/e 10/30 reported 332K vs. consensus 340K
Prior week revised to 351K from 350K
* * * * *

08:30 Q3 Unit Labor Costs 1.6% vs. consensus 2.3%
Prior revised to 1% from 1.8%.
* * * * *

08:30 Q3 Non-Farm Productivity reoprted 1.9% vs. consensus 1.5%
Prior revised to 3.9% from 2.5%.

Our world from a London point of view:

Good afternoon Bill,

It would seem that the moment of truth has arrived for the gold shorts. Watch for the steam to start coming out of the weak joints in the pipes, metaphorically speaking.

The dilemma is this:

As I write at 11:15 am Eastern Time, spot gold is trading at $431, $6.70 above the Comex close, but only$3.85 above the close used by CNBC at the 4:00 pm NYSE close.

Which price will the $6 rule be invoked on?

At the price of $431 the only gold shorts making money are those who managed to take a position on April 1st this year, when spot gold hit $433 intraday. The reality is that at least 99% of all shorts have to be underwater, with some of them losing serious money. If the gold price continues to rise, sooner, rather than later, some if not all of these shorts will have to cover their positions. The result will be akin to trying to put out a fire using gasoline.

As regards the gold shares, the shorts and those who had sold calls are out in force protecting their positions and trying to prevent investment interest spilling into the stocks. For instance, take a look at one of your favourites, GSS, down 22c at $4.84 as I write. For what other reason would the stock price drop on a $6 rise in the gold price? Has the company made a negative announcement?

No doubt the gold newsletter sages will say that this portends a fall in the gold price, since gold shares always lead the metal. Personally, I think it is no more than an effort to paint the charts in an effort to protect short positions, which will be of short term effect only. Again, watch for the steam.

Best wishes
Ian

More food for Australian gold share thought:

Hi Bill
Just a brief note on something I was reading this morning from The West Australian newspaper of Nov 2nd re Sons of Gwalia which I found interesting.

" Meanwhile, mystery surrounds the fate of almost six million Gwalia shares held by US investment fund Franklin Resources until last week. Franklin had built an 11 per cent stake in Gwalia, or 20.7 million shares, by the time the miner collapsed in August.

But the fund has since revealed it divested 5.7 million shares offmarket for an undisclosed sum on October 25, even though the stock has been suspended since August 30.

Franklin bought its last batch of Gwalia shares as recently as August 13 and is understood to be livid over the collapse and a $50 million loss on its investment. Franklin could not be reached for comment."

It stumped me but perhaps the cafe membership might be interested.
Regards
Martin Hastings

More input why the gold shares are lagging:

By Clare Black
LONDON, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The gold mining industry faces higher inflation and energy costs even while the bullion price approaches 16-year highs, the world's third biggest gold miner Barrick Gold Corp said on Thursday.

"One of the challenges we are facing is a much higher level of inflation than we actually see reported in the consumer and producer price indices," Greg Wilkins, chief executive of the Toronto-based producer, told a gold investment seminar.

Barrick warned in September that construction costs at Veladero in Argentina, one of the four new mines it is building, are expected to increase by up to $70 million from its previous forecast because of price pressures for materials, fuel, labour and exchange rates.

Wilkins told the two-day Euromoney seminar in London that steel prices had gone up by 30 to 35 percent in the last 12 months.

Prices of ammonium nitrate, used as an explosive in mining, were also up 30 percent, while all energy-related products were rising sharply.

"With higher oil prices, there is the knock-on effect of higher energy costs associated with our operations. Obviously we have to respond to it," Wilkins said, adding that delivery times to get equipment to projects were also getting longer.

Barrick was attempting to contain costs through hedging its currencies out to 2006, for the Australian and Canadian dollar, and it has also taken out price protection for oil and steel costs.

"But more fundamentally, we are increasing our production that is U.S. dollar-denominated, so from our development projects, we're actually going to raise U.S. dollar costs from being 70 percent to 80 percent," Wilkins said.

Citing relative increases in the value of the Canadian and Australian dollars and South African rand, Wilkins said: "So the only place where you're seeing a true margin increase, which is what everybody expects you to do when the gold price goes up, are operations that have a U.S. dollar cost structure."

This phenomenon could have serious implications for growth of new gold production in a few years' time, with very few large projects due to come onstream in the near term.

Wilkins said annual ounces of new production were forecast to rise to a peak of nearly 3.5 million in 2006, compared with around 2.0 million in 2004 and 2005, but the level was then seen dropping dramatically to just over 1.0 million ounces in 2007.

He said the average lead time for a large discovery to go onstream with production was around five to seven years but that seven to 10 years was probably more realistic.

"The industry isn't going to be able to respond immediately to higher gold prices. It is going to take a long time."

-END-

More food for thought about declining mine production:

Yanacocha is Newmont’s big Peruvian mine. I am not sure how big Pierina is to Barrick. Peru production has been falling consistently for the past 4 months but this is by far the biggest drop for Barrick.

"Peru's output of gold and zinc fell in September, while production of copper and silver rose, the Energy and Mines Ministry said Wednesday.

Gold output totaled 13,832 kilograms in September, down 18.2% compared with the same month a year before.

The ministry said the decline was tied mainly to a 16% drop in production at Minera Yanacocha SRL and a 67% drop at Barrick Gold Corp.'s (ABX) Pierina mine due to lower grades of ore.

Zinc production was 88,143 tons in September, down 25.5% from the same month a year earlier.

The ministry said that this was mainly due to weaker production at Compania Minera Antamina.

Copper production, however, rose 38% to 91,343 tons in September from the same month a year before. That increase was due to rising production at Antamina and at BHP Billiton's (BHP) Tintaya operation, the government said.

Silver production in September was 255,670 kgs, an increase of 9.2% from the same period a year before as a number of mines increased output.

Among some of the other minerals, the government said that lead production was 26,117 tons in September, an increase of 6.5% from the same month in the previous year.

Tin output was 3,383 tons in September, up 2.8% from the same month in the previous year.

Minera Yanacocha is run by Newmont Mining Corp, (NEM) while Buenaventura SAA (BVN) also holds a large stake"

-END-

A gold market view from Aussie Land:

Hi Bill,
My name is Bert from Sydney, Australia.
Been meaning to write to you for some time.
Like you I came to the conclusion that the markets were rigged a long time ago.
I believe that things only go up when the powers that be want them to for their only selfish needs.
But I think cracks have appeared as far as the world cabal (Bilderbergers, G7 etc) is concerned.
I think it's a case of 'you're on your own USA because we can't support your debt anymore'
Understanding this is the key to protecting your capital by buying commodities like gold I think.

I'm an analytical chemist by profession and carried out a lot of mining assays in my life for some big companies like Placer Doom (i like that one) etc. An old geoligist I worked with told me: "Bert, it's simple. The market works in cycles. Buy low and hang on for the ride".And that's exactly what I've done. I'm not a big investor by any means. My first 3 gold stocks I bought in 1998. Everytime a stock doubled I sold half and reinvested in another. I know have around 30! stocks. Mostly small parcels but I think I have a better chance that way. I have more than tripled my investment since then. I was very green in the early days and knew nothing about hedging but did understand mining reserves and open or deep mining.

Thanks to articles like yours I've learned a lot about markets like gold. My conclusion over time is that the gold standard was abandoned so that endles ssupplies of money COULD be printed. In turn, futures were invented to manipulate things like gold with paper. The rich get richer and keep the poor in debt to gain control. But jig is almost up. The mining operations are all being squeezed due to arttificially low prices and supply is running OUT.

I'd like to recommend a stock to you. You may have heard of it. Macmin Silver (MMN.ASX). The mine is located in TEXAS, Queensland, Australia (that's gotta be a good omen). There are tens of millions of ounces of silver sitting in the ground waiting to be mined. These guys are waiting for the price to stay well above A$9/oz. They also have a large interest in New Guinea Gold. I bought these at A$0.07 and they have been north of A$0.20 when silver hit US$8.50. This is my largest holding.

Thanks for all your work through MIDAS, GATA and the CAFE. I know you must cop a lot of flack some times. It's articles like yours and others in the goldbug community that help me know I've made the right investment decisions.

Regards and Many Thanks,
Bert

A bummer for Canyon Resources shareholders. The voters in Montana did them in:

GOLDEN, Colo., Nov. 3 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Canyon Resources Corporation (Amex: CAU - News), a Colorado-based mining company, reports that I-147, the ballot initiative that would have allowed miners to again use cyanide to process gold and silver, was defeated by Montana voters on November 2, 2004, by a 41% to 59% vote. The defeat of I-147 means that the Company's McDonald Gold Project will not be able to use this most-used, conventional technology for gold and silver recovery.

-END-

A decent part of MY day was spent on the collapse of Golden Star Resources ($4.45, down 61 cents) as gold made a 16-year high. What a bummer! I would have thought the smart money would have bought the dip. GSS’s average gold price received in the third quarter was $401. Could be $441 this quarter. Don’t understand the panic? Weird? I will be a buyer of more GSS soon. Worse for me was those who were on GSS margin, sold Samex Mining (80 cents, down 2 cents) too.

Maybe if gold is staring at $500, I will make a few bucks with my shares again.

The XAU gained 2.47 to 104.35, while the HUI jumped 2.93 to 233.72. The gold shares continue to lag the bullion advance in a major league way.

The HUI needs to take out 240 in a hurry and probably will:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8

Who knows what gold will do in the days to come. The Gold Cartel is going all out to keep gold from blowing sky high through $430. The physical gold market is giving the bums big time nightmares. I still see a lot of daylight FOR OUR TEAM

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDA

# Hallo Schwabenpfeil,

wir brauchen kein Spielchen machen O.K., ja warum ist GSS so stark zurück genommen worden hängt es vieleicht mit Moto zusammen?

good luck

hpoth

Zitat

Original von hpopth
# Hallo Schwabenpfeil,

wir brauchen kein Spielchen machen O.K., ja warum ist GSS so stark zurück genommen worden hängt es vieleicht mit Moto zusammen?

good luck

hpoth

Alles anzeigen

GSS.. $4.69, down .36 .. Management is to blame imo. Persuing this takeover for too long a period and authorizing additional shares that hang over this stock like the sword of Damaclese

Zuviel neue aktien , hat die amerikaner abgeschreckt

Zitat

[i]Original von hpopth[/i

hängt es vieleicht mit Moto zusammen?

Möglich. Aber wenn könnten wir im Moto Thread versuchen, die Möglichkeiten vertiefend gemeinsam zu anyalysieren.

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

Überraschend starke Jobdaten aus den USA. +337000 neue Jobs, aus dem Computermodell Net-Birth-Death kamen davon nur 42000.

U.S. Oct. Payrolls Rise 337,000, Exceeding Forecasts (Update2)
http://quote.bloomberg.com/app…d=aXZLh6dH5Tl8&refer=home

Huhu, bin ich der einzige, der heute gebannt und ungläubig auf auf den Kitco Monitor starrt....?

433,50 / 7,47 $

Ich kann die Grabenkämpfe richtig spüren, die da gerade ablaufen
Der Euro ist längst auf neuen highs und Gold wird verbissen gecappt

Leon

Nene,ich hock auch davor....das härteste ist allerdings Silber!

Hier die aktuelle Godmode-Einschätzung:

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.godmode-charts.de/chart/charts2004/lettherebehousemusic/ugo100a1.gif]

Also doch blos alles wieder Statistik-Schwindel....

05.11. 15:42
Trotz Daten keine Klarheit über US-Arbeitsmarkt
(©GodmodeTrader - http://www.godmode-trader.de/)

Laut dem US-Ökonom Ian Shepherdson von High Frequency Economics ist der Arbeitsmarkt in den USA nicht in jener starken Verfassung wie es der heute veröffentlichte Bericht mit einem im Oktober verzeichneten Stellenwachstum von 337.000 ausgewiesen hat. Die tatsächliche Situation am amerikanischen Stellenmarkt wird sich über die kommenden Monate zeigen, wenn die durch die Hurrikanes bedingten Effekte abgenommen haben. Laut Shepherdson sei es ungewiss ob die Fed im Dezember und Februar weitere Zinsanhebungen vornehmen wird.

SPIEGEL ONLINE - 05. November 2004, 17:25
URL: http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,326597,00.html
Teure Währung

Bush-Sieg treibt Euro auf Allzeithoch

Die europäische Gemeinschaftswährung hat am Freitagnachmittag gegenüber dem Dollar einen Rekordwert erzielt. Beobachter warnen vor Folgen für die deutsche Exportwirtschaft. Auslöser für den Anstieg ist der Wahlsieg von George W. Bush.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.spiegel.de/img/0,1020,197859,00.jpg]
AP
Euro-Münze: Februar-Rekord eingestellt
Frankfurt am Main - Der Euro kostete am Devisenmarkt zeitweise 1,2937 Dollar. Seinen bisherigen Höchststand hatte der Euro Mitte Februar bei 1,2930 Dollar erreicht.

Der anhaltende Höhenflug der Gemeinschaftswährung stößt in Deutschland auf geteilte Reaktionen: Während die Exportwirtschaft Auswirkungen auf die deutsche Wettbewerbsfähigkeit auf den Weltmärkten befürchtet, sieht Bundeskanzler Gerhard Schröder keinen Anlass für "ernsthafte Sorge".

Der Wechselkurs zwischen Dollar und Euro sei "noch nicht dramatisch", sagte Schröder am Freitag auf dem EU-Gipfel in Brüssel. Die deutsche Wirtschaft sei im Export "in einer so brillanten Form", dass sie den niedrigen Dollarkurs verkraften könne. Dies sei der Fall, "weil wir die Hausaufgaben gemacht haben"[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.mainzelahr.de/smile/froehlich/456.gif] Natürlich müsse die Entwicklung des Wechselkurses aber genauso wie der Ölpreis beobachtet werden, sagte Schröder.

Der Präsident des Bundesverbandes des deutschen Groß- und Außenhandels (BGA), Anton Börner, rechnet für den Fall eines weiteren Anstiegs dagegen mit Problemen: "Sollte der Dollar weiter an Wert verlieren, wird das US-Geschäft sicher schwieriger", sagte er der "Berliner Zeitung".

"Wir hoffen, dass Bush bald daran geht und seine Ankündigung aus dem Wahlkampf wahr macht, das gewaltige Haushaltsdefizit zu halbieren. Ansonsten bleibt der Dollar unter Druck", sagte er.

Experten rechnen mit weiteren Kurssteigerungen

Der Wahlsieg von US-Präsident George W. Bush hatte die Euro-Rallye erst ausgelöst. "Die Anleger sehen keinen Grund, aggressiv Positionen in Dollar aufzubauen", erklärte ein Frankfurter Devisenhändler. Schließlich sei klar geworden, dass sich an der US-Wirtschaftspolitik zunächst nichts ändern wird. Dadurch seien fundamentale Probleme wie das Leistungsbilanz- und Haushaltsdefizit stärker ins Blickfeld geraten.

Der amerikanische Ökonom und Berater früherer US-Regierungen, Fred Bergsten, rechnet mit einer Fortsetzung der gegenwärtigen Tendenz. "Es ist nur eine Frage der Zeit, bis der Euro 1,30 Dollar kostet und stärker als je zuvor sein wird", sagte er dem "Tagesspiegel". "Dann ist die Frage, ob er auf 1,40 oder gar bis 1,80 Dollar steigt", fügte er hinzu.

Bush-Administration in den roten Zahlen

Die Bush-Regierung hat im Steuerjahr zum 30. September 2004 einen Rekordstand beim Haushaltsdefizit von 412,55 Milliarden Dollar erreicht. Gemessen am Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) der größten Volkswirtschaft der Welt machte das Defizit 3,6 Prozent aus und erreichte damit sein höchstes Niveau seit 1993.

Neben dem Haushaltsdefizit zeigen auch die jüngsten Zahlen zum Handelsdefizit tief ins Minus: Das Handelsministerium hat einen Fehlbetrag für den Monat August von 54 Milliarden Dollar errechnet. Für den Vormonat wurde noch ein Minus von knapp über 50 Milliarden Dollar bekannt gegeben.

Auszug aus dem Pro Aurum Tageskommentar vom 5.11.:

Es stellt sich die Frage, wie sich das Gold im Falle einer Korrektur der Dollarschwäche entwickeln wird. In den vergangenen Monaten war die Korrelation zwischen Dollar und Gold äußerst augenfällig. Gelingt es dem Gold, sich von dieser Entwicklung abzukoppeln oder fällt der kurzfristige Aufwärtstrend in sich zusammen? Wir wissen es nicht und positionieren uns daher weiterhin sehr vorsichtig. Viele unserer Kunden sehen dies wohl anders und haben gestern erneut kräftig in physische Edelmetalle investiert. Auffällig waren vor allem die vielen Kauforders von unseren institutionellen Kunden. Gesucht waren neben den Goldmünzen 1 Unze Krügerrand und Maple Leaf sowie Goldbarren in den Gewichtseinheiten von 100 Gramm und 250 Gramm.

Das Silber konnte ebenfalls zulegen und stand über eine Stunde lang nahe der Marke von 7,40 US$ pro Feinunze. Dieses Niveau stellte schier eine unüberwindbare „Mauer“ dar. Es war wirklich faszinierend zu beobachten, wie bestimmte Marktkräfte versuchten, diese Barriere zu verteidigen und einen weiteren Kursanstieg zu verhindern.

Konjunkturinstitute sehen Fortdauer der Hausse - Anleger dürfen Trend nicht ignorieren

Berlin - Rohstoffe etablieren sich als Anlageklasse. Nachdem bereits die Analysten in den Bankentürmen eine nachhaltige Hausse prognostiziert haben, erhalten sie nun auch Schützenhilfe aus der Wissenschaft. Die auf Höchststände gestiegenen Rohstoffpreise werden nach Einschätzung führender europäischer Konjunkturinstitute auf den hohen Niveaus verharren und nur vereinzelt leicht fallen. Dies geht aus dem Forschungsbericht der Vereinigung Europäischer Konjunkturinstitute (AIECE) hervor, der am Freitag veröffentlicht wurde. Dabei würden zwar nach einer langen Periode niedriger Investitionen bei etlichen Rohstoffen schrittweise neue Vorkommen erschlossen. Doch dies werde nicht verhindern können, daß sich Energieträger wie Öl und Ergas voraussichtlich weiter verteuern.

Zur AIECE gehören auch das Institut für Weltwirtschaft in Kiel (IfW) und das Hamburgische Welt-Wirtschafts-Archiv (HWWA), das einen vielbeachteten Rohstoffpreis-Index veröffentlicht. Die Institute rechnen damit, daß die Rohstoffpreise in diesem Jahr insgesamt in Dollar gerechnet um 30 Prozent steigen werden, nach plus 14 Prozent im vorherigen Jahr. Hintergrund ist das stärkere Industrie- und Wirtschaftswachstum, vor allem in China. Für Energierohstoffe erwartet die AIECE eine Preissteigerung von 35 Prozent in diesem Jahr, für die anderen von 20 Prozent.

"Ein Blick auf die Fundamentaldaten zeigt, daß das starke Anziehen der Rohstoffnotierungen durch eine sehr lebhafte globale Nachfrage verursacht wurde, die von politischen Spannungen und Angebotsknappheiten begleitet wurde", heißt es in dem Bericht. Dabei war der Preisanstieg bei Rohöl besonders stark ausgeprägt. So kostete die führende europäische Sorte Brent Anfang November rund 55 Prozent mehr als zu Beginn des Jahres. "Die geopolitischen Spannungen und die daraus resultierende Risikoprämie in den Ölpreisen werden kaum schnell verschwinden, so daß die Preise hoch und volatil bleiben dürften." Für Rohöl sagen die zehn Institute einen weiteren Preisanstieg von drei Prozent 2005 voraus.

Die Entwicklung der Metallmärkte hängt nach Einschätzung der AIECE vor allem von den Wirtschaftsaussichten in China ab. Denn der nimmersatte Drache verschlingt inzwischen ein Drittel der weltweiten Eisenerzeugung und 20 Prozent der Kupferproduktion. Aus Sorge vor einer Überhitzung der Konjunktur hat die chinesische Notenbank jüngst die Leitzinsen angehoben. Vor allem deshalb erwarten die Institute, daß die Metallpreise 2005 wegen einer gemäßigteren Nachfrage und eines zunehmenden Angebots leicht zurückgehen werden.

Damit scheint die Anlageklasse Rohstoffe keine Marketing-Idee geldschneidernder Kreditinstitute zu sein, sondern bekommt auch den Segen unabhängiger Wirtschaftsforscher. Selbst für den Fall, daß die Preise nach der horrenden Rallye einmal kurzfristig einbrechen sollten, dürfen Anleger der Anlageklasse nicht die kalte Schulter zeigen. Denn unabhängig von kurzfristigen Preisschwankungen hat sich strukturell etwas bei den Rohstoffen verändert. "Die neue Weltordnung der Rohstoffe", überschreibt Michael Lewis von der Deutschen Bank seine jüngste Studie, mit der er bei Kunden für die neue Portfoliostrategie wirbt. Vor allem versucht der Deutschbanker mit seiner umfassenden Expertise die Vorurteile vieler Anleger aus dem Weg zu räumen, daß es sich bei der Rohstoffhausse um ein Strohfeuer handelt. "Wir leben in einem Jahrzehnt, in dem die Rohstoffpreise dauerhaft höher sein werden als während der neunziger Jahre", sagt Lewis.

Privatanleger dürften in der Regel aber gut beraten sein, die Risiken, die mit Rohstoff-Einzelinvestments verbunden sind, zu meiden. Gut gefahren sind Investoren in der Vergangenheit meistens mit Basket-Zertifikaten, die eine ganze Bandbreite von Metallen und Energieträgern abdecken, zum Beispiel dem GSCI-Zertifikat von ABN Amro (ISIN: NL0000329159). Eine Alternative sind auch Rohstoff-Fonds, die an den Kurssteigerungen und Dividenden der Minenaktien partizipieren. Bewährt haben sich in den letzten Jahren die Fonds Merrill Lynch World Mining A (LU0075056555), Activest Aktien Rohstoffe (DE0009779884) sowie Nord-Rohstoff (DE0009792101). dde/hz.

Artikel erschienen in Die Welt am Sa, 6. November 2004