Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Ich finde es einen gewaltigen Skandal, was hier mit dem Schuldenerlaß vom Irak wieder passiert ist. Für mein Dafürhalten hätte man dem Irak auch die Schulden einstweilen für ein paar Jahre stunden können.

Man muß sich nur mal das Szenario in ein paar Jahren ansehen. Der Ölpreis steigt weiter, die Knappheit nimmt eher noch zu und im Irak kehrt wieder Normalität zurück, so dass das Öl wieder normal produziert wird. Dann sitzt Irak auf einer der größten Ölreserven, die es in der Welt momentan gibt und sie verdienen hervorragend.

Übrigens, Russland wollte/hat man doch auch die Schulden erlassen, oder ? Und jetzt schwimmen sie allmählich in Geld, bauen ihre Devisen-/Goldreserven immer weiter aus und denken daran, ihre Schulden vorzeitig zurückzuzahlen.

Wie bescheuert müssen denn unsere regierenden Politiker sein, wenn sie nicht einmal einfachste Zusammenhänge erkennen ?

Gruß

Silbertaler

de eichel hat ja vor ein paar monaten noch gesagt man würde dem irak die schulden nicht erlassen und hat dabei das beispiel russland angeführt. damals haben auch alle gesagt, ach die russen können das niemals zurückzahlen, und jetzt siehts anders aus.
mich wundert nur dass die amis unsern eichel weichgekloppt haben.
vielleicht rechnet von denen niemand mehr mit einer echten befriedung des irak?

mfg kevincito

Ich denke, Eichel ist ein Hanswurst, der nichts mehr zu sagen hat. Hinter dem Schuldenerlaß steckt Schröder, der sich Liebkind bei den Amis machen möchte.

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Nachdem die Franzosen Goldbestände verkaufen, vermute ich, daß sich die Buba anschließen wird. Der Finanzminister braucht die Erlöse dringend, wie sich an seinen unseriösen Haushaltsvorschlägen erkennen läßt.

Dow Jones/vwd
Buba/Weber: Entscheidung über Gold-Verkaufsoption bis Ende 2004
Montag 22. November 2004, 16:28 Uhr

BERLIN (Dow Jones-VWD)--Die Deutsche Bundesbank hat bisher noch nicht darüber entschieden, ob sie ihre Option für den Verkauf von Gold ausüben wird. Diese Entscheidung solle allerdings bis zum Ende des Jahres 2004 getroffen werden, sagte der Präsident der Deutschen Bundesbank, Axel Weber, dem Verein der ausländischen Presse (VAP) am Montag. "Wir haben über die Ausübung dieser Option noch nicht entschieden, werden dies aber bis zum Ende des Jahres tun", sagte er. Die Bundesbank verfügt über rund 3.500 t Gold. Mit Rücksicht auf den Goldmarkt hatte sie sich mit 14 weiteren europäischen Zentralbanken dazu verpflichtet, über einen Zeitraum von fünf Jahren nicht mehr als 500 t pro Jahr zu verkaufen. (ENDE) Dow Jones Newswires/22.11.2004/ms/hab

oder sie ahnen, dass der aufschwung am seidenen faden hängt und sie wissen um eine unbedingte entlastung des amerikanischen haushaltes.
durch den schuldenerlass ist der zusammenbruch des auf dollar gestützten westlichen finanzsystems vielleicht um ein paar monate hinausgezögert worden, wenns schnell geht vielleicht von 2006 auf 2007.
bis 2010 ist der kuchen jedenfalls gegessen. dann steht gold bei 3000 dollar und für eine flasche bier zahlt man 10 euro.

November 22 – Gold $448.50 up $2.10 – Silver $7.55 down 2 cents

Gold Grinds Its Way To New 16-Year Highs

"The public have an insatiable curiosity to know everything, except what is worth knowing. Journalism, conscious of this, and having tradesman-like habits, supplies their demands." Oscar Wilde

A whole lot of important material to cover today as we head into this US holiday shortened week.

The most significant was the astonishing recaps of the G-20 meeting this weekend. Can’t recall a more blunt and troubling assessment coming from the official sector as far as the financial markets are concerned – an extremely dollar bearish assessment with extraordinary ramifications. What is stunning to me is to read the analysis of the meeting after what Fed Chairman Greenspan said on Friday. Back to back commentary as this should have sent the dollar into the toilet and gold soaring today.

Yet, the initial response Sunday evening and early Monday was as muted as could be. The only explanation I can figure is the central banks were fully prepared for what was to come out and put the dollar/gold market in a short-term lockdown. The US wants to keep market participants guessing and keep any sort of dollar dumping panic from developing.

No need to repeat the statements and pundit comments as they are in the two Reuters columns at the Hemingway Table. The bottom line is the dollar is going much lower and gold much higher. It is only a matter of time.

Oh, here’s the reason for the market’s muted response to the extraordinarily bearish dollar commentary – Charlie McCarthy’s cousin spoke out:

Bush Committed to `Strong Dollar,' Cutting Deficit

Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush said he is committed to a ``strong dollar'' and cutting the U.S. government budget deficit.

``My nation is committed to a strong dollar,'' Bush said after a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi at the start of a two-day economic summit of Pacific Rim nations in Santiago, Chile. ``I assured him that in the context of working with Congress we will reduce our short-term and long-term deficit.''

-END-

This sort of rhetoric is beyond mind-boggling, beyond any sort of rationality. The dollar is plummeting, Greenspan bashes it and nothing was presented at the visible G-20 meeting in France to counter the bearishness. Yet, the President feebly talks about favoring a strong dollar. Sure, this is for public consumption. However, whatever happened to the notion credibility is an important quality in leadership?

Oh well, if investors want to be sucked in, let them be.

The PM Fix was $447.80, a new 16-year high, signifying strong physical market demand.

What I also find incredibly striking is the growing lack of gold bullish sentiment as the price continues to rise. MIDAS has documented this for weeks, even months. The amount of short-term bearishness at the New Orleans Investment Conference was pronounced with short-term bears far outnumbering bulls. Gold has rallied $12/$14 since then.

Those fleeing the long side of the gold market continues to increase. John Brimelow points out the following from Dennis Gartman:

"With the dollar now rather extended in one direction following Mr. Greenspan's comments of last Friday, we think once again that the room is getting rather crowded and far too one sided for our liking. We think it is reasonable again to cut our exposure to gold, and we shall again suggest writing calls against the gold shares we own, sufficiently large enough to cut our exposure by half. We shall recommend doing so as soon as is practicable after receipt of this commentary."

There may be a lot of company in the dollar bear camp, however, not so in gold AT ALL.

They are bolting from gold like fleas:

The Daily Reckoning Weekend Edition
November 20-21, 2004
Baltimore, Maryland
By Addison Wiggin and Tom Dyson

,,,and traders agreed. Your Baltimore-based junior editor did not...

On Friday, we started buying dollars in the futures markets, and selling gold.

-END-

The gold open interest rose 4178 contracts to 365,154 with the DEC falling 13,537 to 213,380. What is left in December is enormous; however, today there is a great deal of rollover switching going on.

The silver open interest fell 371 contracts to 125,494 with the DEC contract losing 6436 to 71,619. Silver continues to act poorly. Have no clue why.

DEC options go off the board tomorrow after the close. How will the DEC 450s end up? If we gap open tomorrow, this could produce some fireworks during the Comex trading session. Heaven knows how large the DEC 450 call positions are in the over the counter market.

One of the Morgan Stanley offices in the Southwest fears a dollar collapse, a stock market meltdown and is looking for $500 gold. They have exited their stock positions in the general market.

Gold is breaking out in foreign currency terms. Gold in euros reached 343.60 in August and 343.80 in February. It closed today around 344, taking out its double top to the upside. This is bad news for the heinous Gold Cartel. Gold fever should start kicking in all over the world.

The chart pattern still suggests an acceleration ahead:

December gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C4

Just heard from my STALKER source. Three points to bring to your attention:

*The bullion market is quite hot now in the US.
*His London bullion dealer was looking for a $15 to $18 price correction last week, then off to the races. Sort of like most everyone else. Not so sure about the correction anymore. Odds dropped to 50-50 according to this English source.
*Talk in the gold world in Europe is that Greenspan might be bailing out some day relatively soon – doesn’t want to preside over the inevitable dollar debacle.

For the second day in a row the new gold ETF closed at a premium to spot at 44.97. $450 gold beckons.

Gold should have exploded today. Instead we ended up with one of the quietest sessions in some time. Quiet before the storm? I think so. Something dramatic ought to take gold sharply higher in the very near future.

John Brimelow Report

India buys. Important J Turk questions

Monday, November 22, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.45, PM $8.06 Lavish for legal imports. This is basis Bombay, but the other importing cities display similar results. The rupee hit a 5 ½ month high today. Forcing world gold down from here will require delivering to the world’s largest consumer of physical a great deal of metal.

With Comex closed on Thursday and Friday, dealers will have the interesting problem of accommodating ongoing Indian retail demand without the offsetting presence of what has probably been the major source of liquidity and supply in the bullion world. Conventional wisdom calls of quiet weakness at the end of this week: the reverse is more likely.

Japan is closed tomorrow and TOCOM was comatose today. Only the equivalent of 11,100 Comex lots traded (-5%), with world gold up 10c from NY and the active contract up 2 yen. Open interest was static (+32 Comex). Although a firm $US gold price is helpful, the muscularity of the yen at present discourages yen gold futures buying. Perhaps the different physical market is displaying another pattern. (NY on Friday traded 112,608 lots, with open interest rising 4,179 (13 tonnes) contracts to a new record of 365,155.

While the advent of the ETF makes analyzing the Comex data a new business, it is clear that substantial demand is present in NY – being met by substantial supply. As usual.

The CFTC data surprised some by not showing a towering new spec long (although it was a record). This was because of the expansion of a considerable spec short position. Opinion is divided as to how positive this is – UBS feels the short may have been curtailed after the Tuesday reporting cut off – but it is fair to say that this aspect of the gold market is more Bull-friendly than most expected.

James Turk’s incisive argument to the effect that the operators of the ETF have been favored by the SEC and are not absolutely bound to back the instrument with bullion is posted at

http://news.goldseek.com/JamesTurk/1101100282.php.

It is imperative reading for all serious students of the gold market. An effective refutation by the proprietors is essential. Threats of a lawsuit, the tactic amazingly tried during the first iteration of this vehicle, do not count.

While much of the demand for the ETF is thought to have been incremental, the stage is set for much disappointment if ostensible heavy buying does not cause much price response. So their questions are highly relevant.

With charming symmetry after the French stories of Friday, the Bundesbank started muttering about selling gold this morning. As before, only the news that sales will not be in accord with Washington Accord #2 would mean anything, but it seems incontrovertible that gold has got the attention of the Central Banking fraternity.

Dennis Garman of The Gartman Letter, in his role as a Wall Street echo chamber, proposes to reduce his model portfolio gold exposure, moaning about the trade being "crowded". This of course reflects the sluggishness of the gold shares on Friday, and probably means some more days of frustration for those friends of gold who focus on the equities.

JB

The end of Bretton Woods II is near
Commentary: The problem is China, not the dollar

By John Brimelow
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Nov. 22, 2004

Editor's note: John Brimelow follows gold and international equities for Aegis Capital Corporation in New York. He is the brother of Peter Brimelow, a CBS MarketWatch columnist.

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The bad news: the world is drifting into a major currency crisis like the collapse of the Bretton Woods agreement and the subsequent inflationary upheavals of the 1970s. The good news: it can be handled -- if the market is allowed to work.

According to the deluge of commentary on the dollar, America has a balance of payments problem and the world has a dollar problem: a major dollar decline will have to be accommodated.

This is quite wrong. What everyone has is a massive Chinese undervaluation problem. Any exchange rate discussion that fails to start with this fact is fatuous.

In 1993, China fixed its currency, the yuan, at $1 = Y8.28.

Since then, capital and technology have poured into China. It has built up foreign exchange reserves more than ten-fold, to almost $500 billion, an expansion almost unmatched in history.

Yet the decline of the dollar in the past two years has effectively dragged down the pegged yuan another 35 percent against the major currencies -- exactly the reverse of what should have happened, given China's exporting success.

"Economic Miracles" like China's are actually not unprecedented. Germany had one in the 1950s. But accommodating "Economic Miracles" in a fixed exchange rate system invariably causes problems. This is what eventually destroyed the Bretton Woods system of fixed rates, negotiated after World War II that lasted almost 30 years.

China has been allowed to operate on a covert Bretton Woods system since 1993. By keeping its currency artificially low, it has been practicing "exchange rate mercantilism" -- concentrating productive capacity in its own hands to the detriment of the world economy (and ultimately its own consumers).

It is time to recognize that this must be ended.

Otherwise, any decline in the U.S. dollar simply gives further advantages to Chinese exports. This is now causing serious problems for other countries, particularly in the Third World.

Under the various types of gold standard, of course, this distortion could not have happened. The huge inflow of resources would have inflated the Chinese economy and eroded its competitive advantage.

Under Bretton Woods, distortion didn't happen either. When a "fundamental disequilibrium" developed, vigilant statesmen in the other counties took action to force adjustment.

Why this has not happened this time in the case of China is an interesting question.

Partly, it is because most economic theory in the English-speaking world developed under fixed rates. Furthermore, the English speaking countries did not generally practice predatory currency policies.

Some countries did, of course -- Japan spectacularly undervalued its way out of the 1930s slump. But they were minor cases, not on the policy radar screen.

My pet conspiracy theory: the Chinese have been extremely successful in co-opting elements of the American economic establishment.

The Treasury likes a reliable buyer of U.S. paper. So does Wall Street. Importers of Chinese goods are happy. American businessmen with plants in China resist change. Buyers of Chinese consumer goods do not complain. American diplomats dislike offending this powerful and notoriously touchy country.

But now, China's policy is harming countries, in Europe and elsewhere, where the leadership really cares about the overall national interest.

These foreign leaders will provide the political will that U.S. leaders have not. The Chinese perpetual motion machine will be confronted and contained.

The beneficiaries of the Chinese undervaluation free lunch had better prepare for change. That means importers and distributors of Chinese goods (think Wal-Mart (WMT: news, chart, profile)), sellers of paper (think U.S. Treasury) and anyone who likes stability (relative prices will shift -- possibly triggering inflation, depending on the Fed's reaction.)

The collapse of the Second Bretton Woods system will be sweeping and disruptive.

But ultimately it will be beneficial for the world at large -- and U.S. manufacturers in particular.

-END-

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

One would have thought with Greenspan predicting much higher US interest rates and the world predicting a much lower dollar, the US stock market would suffer somewhat. NOPE. The DOW rose 32 to 10,492, while the DOG gained 15 to 2085. Has me scratching my head.

The bond market makes no sense either. It closed at 113 11/32, up 20/32.

The euro only rose .21 to 130.46 and the dollar only dropped .09 to 83.23.

Speaking of Dennis Gartman, his comments on Iraq are astonishing. From his latest DGL:

"Our bet is that when the election is held, within weeks, the fighting will stop; the news will subside; Iraq will move from the front pages of the world's newspapers to the back pages; life in Baghdad will return to far more normal times and peace will break out all over."

???? What does he see that I don’t? We both must read different news reports of what is going on over there.

How many times have I commented gold is the worst reported on market in history and the least understood, in good part because of the disinformation put out by the bullion banks in The Gold Cartel. A gold article in the New Yorker which does not even make it to the drivel level:
http://newyorker.com/talk/content/?041129ta_talk_surowiecki

On the French gold sale announcement.... Will this be a new gold sale or does it represent gold already gone from the French central bank via past gold leases?

One Café member sees it this way:

Hi Bill:
There is no question that the French gold has already been leased when they announced their initial intention on May 2.04. That was when this tranche of gold entered. With a structural deficit of 1500-2000 tonnes of gold per year that gold has now been dissipated. The Dutch gold has also been leased as it came onto the market probably Sept-Nov 5 or so.

The announcement by the French was supposed to neutralize the devastating effects of Greenspan's speech concerning the plight of the dollar, the rise in long term interest rates and the huge structural problems facing the usa with their twin deficits. To the shock of Bush et al.. it failed and gold rose and paid no attention to the French announcement. They are burning the midnight oil this weekend!!!
Harvey

Rhody views the central bank gold issue like this:

You wondered if the Bank of England received Usds for its gold sales. Absoutely, the BOE sold it's gold to buy US dollars, and did so when gold was well under $300 and at a time when the US dollar was 30% bigger than it is now. They bought Treasuries that yielded 4% per year. Their "loss" is 32% on the decline of the dollar and about $150 per oz on the gold. Their gain is they held back the present gold bull by two years.

Let me be as clear about this as I can. Central banks do not hold gold as an investment but as ammunition to be used to sell down gold. Remember gold up means paper down. Since these entities exist to maintain the paper money system, gold is the "enemy" of the fiat money system. They hate it.

If a central bank is not actively selling gold, they may accumulate it, not as an investment, but as a future threat to sell. Heard that before haven't you? How often have we heard of central bank plans to sell gold as the price rises?

The answer is every time. The latest threat is from the French Central Bank. The US Treasury supposedly holds 261 Moz of gold. They say they will not sell it. Whether they still have it or not, this gold sits as a potent threat against any nation that tried to reconnect their currency system to gold by going back on the gold standard. While the US still has that gold, no nation would dare to do this because the US would dump its gold reserves and thereby trash the newly gold-linked currency. In this way, gold is a financial sector weapon of mass destruction and as with all such weapons, is most effective as a threat. When the US does use its gold weapon, we will be very close to the end of the world financial system.

The big question is, has the US already used up its gold weapon?
Regards Rhody.

Houston’s Dan Norcini on the weird bond action:

Hey Bill:
The bonds are beginning to trade more and more like gold only in the inverse Bill. Watching these things for as long as I have, there is rarely, if ever, any follow through on the downside in bonds just as there is rarely, if any, follow through on the upside in gold.

Huge up days in gold are never followed by another strong up day such as we normally see in freely traded markets like soybeans or cattle or hogs for instance - instead we see grinding action that only recently has slowly continued to the upside. In bonds, the downside is immediately thwarted and the price action then grinds slowly back to the upside.

Given the amazing bluntness and rare candor by Greenspan last Friday in regards to interest rates, to witness no follow through to the downside after the big sell off is very unusual from where I sit; especially given the continued weakness in the dollar and Grenspan's remarks that demand for Dollar paper assets would wane. Overnight bonds opened lower as could have been expected only to come into New York and move back up. I cannot tell whether bond traders are still conditioned like Pavlov's dogs to expect the BOJ to come in and pull the rug from under the yen and are doing the buying or the Fed is active along the long end of the yield curve.

All of this is very strange.

Jesse and I are both tracking the custodial accounts and they continue to increase to the point where they are currently sitting at $1.32 Trillion up from $1.29 Trillion only a month ago. That is an increase of some $30.45 Billion. That is one helluva lot of Treasury paper being purchased for foreign Central Banks.
The game continues........
Dan

The Belkhayate Letter on "The nuclear explosion of GOLD":

Hi Bill
The price of gold has surged 75% since July 1999, up from $254/oz to $446/pz. How come that this hike has gone unnoticed by the majority of operators on international markets especially heads of enterprises? Because this rise has been deliberately kept secret by the financial authorities I have talked about in my latest papers. This hide-and-seek is coming to an end: the dollar is definitely losing in front of the king of metals. In 2005, we will see a real nuclear explosion of gold.
more : http://www.belkhayate.ma/ang/lettre.php

The latest from Randolph Buss in Berlin:

Remark 18 Nov.pdf

Chuck notes:

Bill:
I looked cursorily at the Times, Investors Daily, Barrons and Business Week and there was not a word regarding gold and very little even about Greenspan's revelation. Absolutely clueless and unreal! Good encouragement by Mike Hoy. He has a good spirit. Chuck

Spoke with my good friend John Anderson today in Vancouver. Of interest, he arranged for Steve Kay of International Minerals in Toronto (IMZ) to meet with some of the heavyweight money managers in Europe, especially Switzerland. The feedback is the BIG MONEY over there is coming out of the woodwork to buy gold equities and bullion. The main catalyst for the burgeoning interest is the big players see the gold price moving in other currencies besides the dollar. As oft-expressed in this column, this is The Gold Cartel’s worst nightmare and what they have fought so hard to suppress.

From what John tells me (and he knows his stuff extremely well) IMG has some important discoveries. For anyone who would like to know more about them, John can be reached at 604 682 7577.

Gold and the public:

Bill,
The only words I can pen to describe the current market psychology is this.

Greenspan got up on the stage Friday last and explained to the party crowd that there is a fire in the building that, if and because you have NOT ALREADY left the building, IS GOING TO destroy you, … there is NO hope. Then he turned to the others on stage (G20) and asked them to confirm the assessment, which they did.

The crowd stands there stunned … some have started to weep, a very few are still hoping to find that exit and survive , but most have decided to keep the party going, figuring that this is just some new psychedelic drug that’ll make the party even more exciting … WHOA, flirting with living trough a fire … WOW what a cool experience! What a far out party man!

The RUSH will not come from those in the building, they WILL BE destroyed in the fire. The RUSH will come from those who either left early or never went to the party. BUT they will only react after they see the charred remains of the once all powerful, indestructible building laid waste before them. Then THEY will stampede the frontier to secure bricks of gold and silver to lay the foundation for the next … "building".
Buena Fe

Called brother Tim to find out what was going on in the gold coin market. He got back to me with:

Bill, Your inquiry and intuition on the gold coin market is right on the money. Apparently, the major market makers in the numismatic gold coin market are not Midas or GATA readers. As most in the gold world, they have been caught with their pants down with this most recent move in gold. Dealer inventories are very tight in high end MS64 and MS65 $20 Gold Liberties and MS65 and MS66 $20 Gold Saint Gaudens. The coins were "sluggish" as gold moved off its bottom in the summer and raced past $400. These coins are presently on "fire" the last couple of months. The ratio is rising as we expected and our Midas-GATA clients are happy they have diversified into some of the physicals. We want to thank you for your consistent knowledge and courage to call this market. To reiterate your earlier sentiment, when gold goes up sharply, so will the collectible coins. We would be glad to introduce any of your followers to this opportunistic market. Given the action of the gold shares and the gold coins, the importance of having a balanced portfolio for the long run has never been more evident.

Best Regards, Fred Goldstein, Senior Broker and brother Tim, Broker at
Swiss America
1-800-289-2646 ext 1033 (Fred) and ext 1019 (Tim)
trmurphy@swissamerica.com

Congrats to James Turk and his work on the gold ETF. While it is a positive that the gold ETF is bringing much needed attention to gold as an investment, it is important to get a handle on what really might be going on here. Over the years James Turk has gone into painstaking detail many times to uncover a number of scoops and revelations. Whatever your opinion is of the new WGC ETF, this point made by James deserves our special attention:

"The SEC has broken with precedent. Like the bucket-shops of the 1920’s that allowed investors to bet on price changes without owning the underlying security, GLD enables investors to bet on the price of gold, without GLD being required to meet the same custodial standards required of other retail-oriented mutual funds. Why? Did central banks force the SEC to register the WGC’s fund? Did the SEC cave-in under central bank pressure, even though GLD’s loose custodial controls conflict with longstanding SEC requirements and establish a dangerous precedent? Why did the SEC register GLD in a week when anti-gold jawboning by central banks wasn’t working, making clear they need new tools to keep a lid on the gold price? And why doesn’t the prospectus disclose the big risk that there are serious restrictions on auditing the gold supposedly owned by the fund?

"The SEC needs to be called ‘on the carpet’. And I call on the GATA army to do it."

-END-

If the GATA ARMY can force the SEC to address this issue, it might lead them to other gold issues which we would like them to look into. Making it easier to proceed for the GATA ARMY:

Hi Chris and Bill,
I just read James Turk's latest and quickly ran a search for SEC in google which led me to their site where one can easily register complaints.

I think more people will be moved to complain if you make it easy for them by adding the link at the bottom of James alarming points.

http://www.sec.gov/

Thanks,
Loretta