Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Hier eine tolle Chartanalyse.

http://www.contrarianthinker.com/Firewall.htm

Hier auch ein schöner Chart (z.Z. jedenfalls)

[URL=http://www2.onwirtschaft.t-online.de/dyn/c/T-Online.de/Themen/Wirtschaft/Aktien/Suche/ExterneInhalte/ei-is-einzelwert,vv=dyn,ei=http://boerse.t-online.de/de/stk/ind/reports/chart.html?chart_market=SLV.FX1&chart_type=LINE&chart_datascale=abs&chart_axisscale=lin&chart_volume=1&chart_highlow=1&chart_avg1=200&chart_avg2=&chart_bench1=&chart_bench2=&chart_indicator1=&chart_indicator2=&sSymbol=SLV.FX1&chart_hist=1d&dummy=.html]Silber-intraday[/URL]

ja, sieht okay aus.

Was ist denn heute mit Silber am laufen?

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitco.com/images/live/silver.gif]

Hoffentlich nicht wieder der Auftakt zum "Sell-Off"!

Nun ist es wieder Zeit für unsere kleine Hymne:  

Die Hymne des Tages

Go!!!

at ageka

Merci, entscheidest Du nach Deinen Charts?

Gruss midas, z.Z. Brüssel

Tag beginnt interessant

Hallo zusammen,

habe einen netten Kommentar gefunden, der den historischen Goldpreis und den per Inflation errechneten Goldpreis zeigt.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Das zeigt nur mal wieder dass wir noch VIEL MEHR LUFT nach oben haben.

Grüssle,

Silversurfer

December 1 – Gold $453.40 up $2.40 – Silver $8.01 up 31 cents

It Appears Our Guy Is Winning The Shootout At The Silver OK Corral!

If we value independence, if we are disturbed by the growing conformity of knowledge, of values, of attitudes, which our present system induces, then we may wish to set up conditions of learning which make for uniqueness, for self-direction, and for self-initiated learning...Karl Rogers (Psychologist 1902-1987)

As a result of silver’s substantial move up today, I have been besieged about this comment in the Monday MIDAS:

"Special note: Something is in the works for silver which should give the shorts a real jolt. Should know before the end of the year if it will come to pass. Am unable to elaborate any further except to say it will make those who refuse to understand gold and silver are money to take notice. Will be wake-up call time, a significant one!"

Unfortunately, I am not at liberty to elaborate at the moment. However, I CAN SAY that yesterday afternoon was the Shootout at OK Corral. With silver doing what it is today, one can surmise our guy was quicker on the draw than their guy.

As soon as I am able I will explain this intrigue, and it will be my pleasure to do so. To give you some idea of the sensitivity of what is going on, my source is filling me in by overnight express mail – won’t even send me what might be up by email. Stay tuned!!!!!

March silver
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/35

Funds were substantial buyers of silver today with Morgan Stanley doing a bit of short-covering. Our floor source noted how few of the usual silver bulls have been long on this move up. Funds were buyers and the volume was not heavy. What was noticeable was the LACK of trade selling. It disappeared. Perhaps what is going on at the Silver OK Corral is the reason?

Silver guru David Morgan called last night all excited about silver, citing how DEC made it through the rollover period so easily. He had it nailed.

The silver open interest fell 549 contracts to 116,958.

Gold, which came in lower, followed silver higher. Got my juices going when it took out its double top at $455. That was too much for The Gold Cartel to live with so they beat it right back down. By day’s end we only made up for what we lost yesterday. Still, for The Gold Cartel to be going all out to batter bullion and to have gold make new highs for the move is good news for our team.

The dollar closed down .27 to 81.55, making new lows on the close. The euro lifted .28 to 133.20 and the pound shot up .0225 to 1.9315.

The gold open interest fell 9921 contracts to 345,646. This is good news for it has now contracted by 30,000 contracts with gold on its highs. When the specs pitch their longs, the commercial shorts have begun to run for the hills.

Spoke with Michael Kosares of USAGold today. He totally debunks what Gavin Maguire reported yesterday for Dow Jones. He says his gold business is booming. What is most impressive is the size of the orders, according to Mike. At times some of his staff are even having trouble keeping up with what has to be done it is so busy. Mike can’t figure out what Maguire is talking about. Concern over the dollar fall is spurring demand in a major league way according to this Colorado gold pro.

This is good news. With gold demand surging like this in the US there is no way The Gold Cartel is going to keep the price of gold from soaring in the months to come. They just don’t have enough physical to satisfy the growing world-wide demand.

A question from Down Under:

G'day Bill,
I note Midas said: "Gold has risen mostly in dollar terms, especially this last part of the run, because The Gold Cartel has engineered it this way to dampen gold investment excitement in the rest of the world." In Australia, the gold price has hardly moved in years. Could you explain how the cartel manipulates the $Aus (or currencies in general, whichever is easiest)?
Regards, Sid

Don’t know what they do in the currencies Sid. All I know is that it is clear they are holding gold down enough so that there are no gold bull markets other than in dollars. It could not be more obvious. When gold breaks out in foreign currency terms, it will be a signal The Gold Cartel has had it.

Gold in euros is only around 340.

John Brimelow Report

Indian and Middle East buying Rules

Wednesday, December 01, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.27, PM $7.79, with world gold at $451.45 and $451.10. High: ample for legal imports. The rupee firmed again to another 7 month high of $1 = R44.45, where it ran into some opposition by the Reserve Bank. Indian demand is solidly supporting world gold at these level. To add perspective, the only time premiums were distinctly higher this year was at the end of the gold slump in late April/early May, when world gold bottomed around $380.

Another area providing solid support is the Middle East. Turkish gold import data for November, posted on the Istanbul Gold Exchange website today, reveal Turkey imported 13.34 tonnes of gold last month, 196% more than November last year, despite the weighted average price of gold (according to the Exchange) being 10.2% higher in Turkish currency terms and 14.9% higher in US dollars. Y-t-D imports are 11.5% above 2003, and in fact have already exceeded the total for last year, itself easily a record. Much of this metal is thought to be transshipped South and East: this data provides further evidence that the demand schedule for gold in the region has shifted.

(Imports were 10% down from October: November is usually a weak month. Silver imports Y-t-D are up a remarkable 33%. Maybe silver’s strength today is not irrational.)

TOCOM saw gold volume halve, down 52% to equal only 14,730 Comex lots. The active contract slipped 4 yen, but world gold gained $1.25 over the NY close. Open interest rose: up 999 Comex lots. The abruptness of the change implies that yesterday’s flurry might have been a Fund. There is some talk of appreciable Australian selling, supposedly miners stimulated by the weak $A induced local gold price. One doubts there is much flexibility amongst Australian miners: perhaps this is more evidence of Fund activity in Asia.

NY yesterday traded 83,939 lots, with open interest falling 9,921 contracts to 345,646. Following the 10 AM economic data, the market was hit by a fierce bout of selling. ScotiaMocatta says

"Gold…found sellers after the release of better than expected US economic data…from both funds and New York dealers, bottoming out at 448.00/448.50. Gold did not remain below 450.00 for very long as physical traders turned out to be keen buyers…The metal soon traded back above 450.00 where local short covering appeared"

Standard London amplifies:

"…with steady investment bank selling in the market, gold declined. Stops around $452 on Comex seemed to assist the downward move…"

In essence, an opportunistic raid alarmed weak longs, but was stopped in its tracks by the physical market. This support did not apparently include ETF buying: the bullion holdings of which were virtually unchanged.

A similar if less dramatic pattern was seen just before the NY opening today. Gold has of course underperformed the major currencies since early last week for the usual reason – the heavy selling just below $450 last week has only retreated to just under $455. But on the basis of today’s information data from the key physical buying regions, it will soon have to retreat some more.

JB

All MIDAS readers are aware that knowing what the Indian premiums have been the past many months has been a KEY factor in understanding this gold bull market. John Brimelow’s work has been brilliant. He has gone out of his way to explain to Café members what this is all about:

Indian Premiums.

For centuries, India has been a massive importer of both gold and silver. For the Hindu majority in particular, gold jewelry and silver ornaments have deep appeal rooted in culture and tradition. Local mine supplies are limited.

A popular estimate is that some 15,000 tonnes of gold is in private hands in India. That is some 10% of the total world gold stock. By contrast, Central Banks claim to have a total of just over 31,000 tonnes, but an unknown quantity has been lent ("leased") out. Actual gold holdings of the Central Banks and the Indian public may in fact be quite similar.

Indians are constantly buying and selling gold to one another. Prices for the various grades and sizes popularly traded are collected by merchant associations and reported for many cities by the Indian press, usually on a twice daily basis. These could be thought of as the "small wholesale" or "large retail" prices. It is reasonable to assume that public interest and competitive pressure between the news vendors keeps them realistic.

For over 30 years, the import of gold into India was illegal, which lead to heavy smuggling. Starting in the mid 1990s more enlightened policies were progressively adopted such that gold (and silver) can now be imported freely on payment of a moderate duty.

What is of interest to outsiders is, are prices in India high enough to pay the costs of importing? Essentially, this means buying the gold in the world market by converting rupees into dollars, shipping it, paying the import duty (currently10.2 Rupees per gram), the sales tax of the local state (supposed to be harmonized at 1%, but there are a few deviants) any other local taxes, and leaving a profit margin.

The two big items are the import duty and the sales tax. I focus on what I call the "ex-duty premium" because it is a clear starting point. So, for instance, in the afternoon of November 30, 2004, in the usually leading import city, Bombay .999 gold was 670.5 rupees per gram. The exchange rate was $1 =R44.6375. This meant that Bombay gold was $467.21 per oz. World gold was $451.85. Import duty came to $7.11 per oz, leaving $8.25 as the "ex-duty" premium. Out of this sales tax would have to be paid, say $4.52, leaving $3.73 for other costs and profit. Gold will be transported immense distances for profits of less than $1 per oz, so it is safe to say that Bombay was a buyer from the world that afternoon.

Modern communications have revolutionized the relationship between the Indian gold trade and the world. Using telephone and the internet, Indian arbitrage dealers/importers trade to the end of the NY day. There have been estimates that laying off their business sometimes accounts for as much as a fifth of Comex volume.

Secondly, and greatly to the irritation of these Indians, it is possible, with some effort, to identify quite precisely gold and exchange rates at the key times of the day and perform these calculations. This would have been impossible only a very few years ago. So it possible to settle quantitatively the question of whether India is or is not an importer at any point.

India is by far the biggest importer in the world. One of the largest participants in the business has estimated the country might import 880 tonnes this year. This would be a third of global mine production.

Indian demand is price sensitive (in rupees). High premiums have been a fairly good indicator of lows in the world gold price. Sometimes, world gold rises high enough that imports are not possible. Very rarely, world prices get so high that the premium is not enough to cover the import duty, which creates a negative "ex duty premium". I have never seen Indian prices anywhere near being actually below world prices. Exports sourced in India have therefore never been practical, although it is said this did occur in early 1981.

JB
November 30, 2004

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

Hello, this is Murphy on Mars to Earth. With what is going on in the world and in the US economy, the roaring US stock market makes no sense. What the heck is going on down there? The DOG rocketed up 162 to 10,590 as did the DOG which jumped 41 to 2138 jumped 41 to 2138.

I’m glad I’m not writing stock market commentary. I’d be going broke. The soaring stock market seems to be nothing more than a money game. De Nial is winning the day. Seems the momentum traders are too. Funds are pouring in from those who don’t want to miss the big money to be made. Meanwhile, investors can’t wait to chuck their gold shares. This is all ludicrous. Gold (and silver) is THE investment opportunity of a lifetime and the US stock market is a disaster waiting to happen. Keep this and bring it to my attention 6 months or a year from now.

The 30-year bond is breaking down and has completed a massive top, while the dollar continues its Niagara Falls act:

30-year T Bond
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/C4

Even my friend Mahendra, who has nailed so many markets of late is frustrated with the US stock market, sending out this missive today:

Dear Members,
I know I have off-track on stock market prediction but my study shows today will be final day of upward trend and market will not hold here. This may be went up because of oil correction which I predicted in this week newsletter.

If with in 48 hours market doesn't fall than I may stop predicting on USA market for some time.

48 HOURS WILL ANSWER.

Metals are approaching toward new high - Don't sell or short.

Corn is now on my top list of investment.

Thanks & God Bless
Mahendra
http://www.mahendraprophecy.com/

Mahendra called today after sending out this email, suggesting I get out my "Ten Horns" hat. Going to need it soon according to this seer. While he is having trouble calling the US stock market, he nailed the move down in oil. Still knocking em dead with gold and silver too.

The US economic news of the day:

08:30 October Personal Spending reported 0.7% vs. consensus 0.4%; Income 0.6% vs. consensus 0.5%
Prior Spending unrevised 0.2%; Income unrevised at 0.6%. Deflator reported 2.4% vs. consensus 2.4%.
* * * * *

10:00 Nov. Prices Paid reported 74 vs. consensus 75.3
Prior reading was 78.5.
* * * * *

10:00 Nov. ISM Manufacturing reported 57.8 vs. consensus 57
Prior reading 56.8.
* * * * *

10:00 Oct. Construction Spending reported 0.0% vs. consensus 0.7%
Prior reading revised to 0.1% from 0.0%.
* * * * *

10:31 DOE reports crude oil inventories +900K barrels vs. expectations (200K) barrels
Gasoline inventories reported +3M barrels vs. consensus +1.1M barrels. Distillate inventories reported +2.3M barrels vs. consensus +1.5M barrels. January crude is trading lower in initial reaction to the data.
* * * * *

10:32 API reports crude oil inventories +1.3M barrels
Distillate inventories +4.4M barrels, while gasoline inventories +512K barrels. In reaction to data, Jan. crude currently trading lowr to $48.30 from $48.70 prior.
* * * * *

Oil collapsed, falling $3.64 per barrel to $45.49, a level thought unacceptable less than a year ago.

14:03 Fed says almost all districts report improved economic growth
Data shows manufacturing increased across U.S., noting that some industries are able to pass through price increases. Fed saw numerous reports of hiring during mid-October to mid-November. Survey indicates little wage pressures and higher benefit costs. The data, provided by the Dallas Fed, indicates consumer spending was "uneven." Dow +1.17% to 10550.39; S&P 500 +1.13% to 1187.13; Nasdaq Composite +1.55% to 2129.4.
* * * * *

14:09 San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen says real GDP is growing modestly above trend
Yellen says oil prices, business investment and the trade deficit are all negative for the economy. Yellen says Oct. payroll data was very good, though notes little change in inflation expectations, noting that inflation remains well contained. Bonds remain lower. 10-yr. (6/32) to 4.37%.

Economic news from Economic news from Aussie Land:

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's economic growth rate more than halved in the third quarter to its slowest pace in almost four years as exports, home building and company inventories declined.

Gross domestic product, a measure of all goods and services produced, rose 0.3 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30 from the previous quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. Growth was less than economists expected and slowed from a revised 0.8 percent in the second quarter.

A slowdown in Asia's fifth-largest economy, which has been expanding for 13 years, supports the central bank's statement last month that there is ``no pressing need'' to raise interest rates. Reports yesterday showed retail sales fell 0.7 percent in October and approvals for housing dropped to the lowest in 3 1/2 years.

-END-

The King Report
M. Ramsey King Securities, Inc.
Wednesday Dec. 1, 2004 – Issue 3048 "Independent View of the News"

Fortune Magazine, like many other pundits and fin media types, avers that the declining dollar is good for US exporters. As we stated in yesterday’s missive, this nonsense has been spewed for over three decades. The dollar was worth 357 yen at the end of 1971. The decline to the current Y102.77, let alone the drop to 80 in 1995, did little to rectify the US trade problem. We distinctly recall Lee Iacocca, then Ford’s CEO, screaming in the mid-‘80s, ‘Give me a 150 yen and I can compete with the Japanese automakers.’ Not too long after Lee’s bluster the dollar fell to 120. And how did that work out for Ford?

The three decade plus dollar decline versus Japan and other first world currencies has been accompanied by steady erosion in the US trade position. You’d think that three decades of data would be enough to dispel the conventional wisdom that the US, or any nation, can devaluate its way to prosperity.

When the dollar hits the alarm phase of a decline, which is usually about two-three years into a pronounced decline, there are always those that try to mitigate the extent of the dollar’s decline by comparing the dollar’s plight to some other country’s plight and declining currency. Sure, versus the peso, the dollar looks great. So what?

Prior to the open, more negative Wal-Mart news chilled the markets and thwarted the expected rally for month end. The China Business Weekly’s Jiang Jingjing reports, "Wal-Mart’s China inventory to hit US$18B this year - The world's largest retailer, Wal-Mart Stores Inc, says its inventory of stock produced in China is expected to hit US$18 billion this year, keeping the annual growth rate of over 20 per cent consistent over two years." http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/e…-11/29/content_395728.htm

Yesterday Merrill said people are too optimistic about Intel’s prospects. Intel’s mid-quarter update is due after today’s close, so operators and investors figure Merrill knows something. We mentioned last week that DRAM prices had declined below their August low. Spot DRAM prices fell 16% in November. But as we keep harping, investors and operators have been eschewing fundamentals and adhering to technical/seasonal trading…PS – Several brokers and pundits promoted Intel before Merrill’s warning, saying they expect Intel to raise their estimates in the update. What are these people looking at?

All one needs to know about yesterday’s GDP figure is that according to US government economic statisticians, the US in Q3 had the lowest core inflation since the ‘60s. Core personal consumption expenditures are listed at +0.7%. This is so absurd, it defies comment. Yet many on The Street will not only swallow this pap, they will make decisions and invest clients’ money on this and similar bogus data.

Just last week, we saw a disturbing chart in Jim Bianco’s research that shows intermediate producer prices, ex-food and energy, at almost +8% y/y are near the all-time high annual ROC (+8.2%)……….

-END-

A currency heads-up from Down Under:

Hi Bill,
An interesting snippet out of Copenhagen and Saxo bank. Word is that the small FX traders are shorting the Euro but the big boys are looking at 1.40 SHORT TERM. How well does that correlate with the COT data showing the small specs are short gold?
Best,
Malcolm

Bergsten is no dummy:

Economists say dollar only halfway through its decline

By Corbett B. Daly, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 6:43 PM ET Nov 30, 2004

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Despite the steady decline in the U.S. dollar, the greenback is still only halfway through its adjustment to the level where it belongs to avoid a global economic crisis, a group of leading economists said in a new book released Tuesday.

"The exchange rate of the dollar is going to fall, that's what we have been seeing over the last three years, that's what we are arguing here will continue and the only issue is the extent to which and the mode to which it happens," said C. Fred Bergsten, a former Treasury official and co-editor of "Dollar Adjustment: How Far? Against What?"

Bergsten and his colleagues at the Institute for International Economics, a leading Washington think tank on currency matters, argue that the dollar should continue its fall in an orderly fashion, particularly against Asian currencies that have not appreciated against the dollar as dramatically as the euro and other western currencies.

The dollar's dramatic decline against the euro has been "extremely lopsided," holding its value more than it should have against Asian currencies, according to the book.

The dollar probed a low against the euro before rebounding Tuesday, in the wake of interest-rate comments from a top European official and release of a U.S. report that showed American consumer sentiment soured.

The euro was worth as much as $1.3331, its richest dollar value ever, before falling back slightly. Late in U.S. trade Tuesday, the euro was quoted at $1.3291, a gain of 0.2 percent against its U.S. counterpart compared with late U.S. trading on Monday.

The dollar hit fresh lows against the euro for four consecutive days last week after Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan said foreigners might lose their appetite for dollar assets given the size of the U.S. current account deficit. Read more.

In the book, Bergsten and John Williamson argue that China, Japan and other Asian nations should stop intervening in exchange markets, limiting their participation in the adjustment process. Read more.

"East Asia must play a much bigger role, indeed we would say a dominant role, in the remaining second leg of the international adjustment of the dollar and the correction of the international imbalances," Bergsten said. The dollar hit its high against the euro in the summer of 2001.

The Bush administration has been publicly urging the Chinese government to move to a more flexible exchange rate regime. China has fixed its currency at roughly 8.3 yuan to the dollar since 1994. American manufacturers complain that the fixed Chinese exchange rate provides an unfair cost advantage to China's exports and is costing thousands of U.S. jobs.

The economists said the U.S. should drop its public insistence that the Chinese allow their currency to move toward a floating exchange rate and, instead, argue for a stronger, fixed yuan.

"Clearly we are not indifferent. We want it to go up," said Morris Goldstein, author of a chapter on China.

The Chinese should revalue their currency and institute a new peg at a higher value before moving to limited flexibility and then allowing the yuan to float freely on the currency markets.

"That's how most countries that have gone from a peg to a float without having a crisis as a part of the process have gone," Williamson said, adding that Colombia, Chile, Israel and Poland followed that pattern.

The problem, of course, is that a stronger yuan contradicts the so-called "strong dollar policy" espoused by Treasury Secretary John Snow and his spokesmen.

Jawboning the markets "is going to get a bad name and it may become ineffective in the future if the secretary of the Treasury continues to declare his support for a strong dollar, irrespective of the circumstances," Williamson said, adding "this is an instrument that also needs to be wielded with a certain amount of responsibility."

Michael Mussa, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said there had already been "enough" adjustment against the euro in the near-term.

"It would be useful as a matter of some urgency to get some movement in Asian exchange rates," Mussa said, adding that his former employer needs "to be substantially more active" in its oversight of exchange rate manipulation by member nations.

-END-

NEW YORK, N.Y., November 30, 2004 — The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc., will begin holding an additional electronic trading session for gold, silver, copper, and aluminum futures on Fridays from 2 PM to 4:30 PM on December 3.

The current trading schedule is as follows:

Open outcry trading:
Gold futures: 8:20 AM to 1:30 PM
Silver futures: 8:25 AM to 1:25 PM
Copper futures: 8:10 AM to 1:00 PM
Aluminum futures: 7:50 AM to 1:15 PM

Electronic trading:
Gold, Silver, and Copper:
Sunday 7 PM to 8 AM
Monday through Thursday 2 PM to 8 AM
Aluminum:
Sunday 7 PM to 7:40 AM
Monday through Thursday 2 PM to 7:40 AM

-END-