# Hallo The Merowinger,
nicht nur Öl wird knapper auch bei Gold geht die Produktion zurück.Vor 30 Jahren wurden in Südafrika 1000 t Gold gewonnen jetzt sind es schon unter 400 t Gold jährlich.Auch bei Zink geht die Produktion zurück
z.B. die bekannte Zinkmine Mount Isa und Broken Hill sind bis 2015 erschöpft.Auch hier wird sich die Verknappung im Preis bemerkbar machen.
gruß hpoth
.. und es geht auch heiter weiter.
Der Dezember scheint ein heisser Monat zu werden.
Dear Friends:
Lars Lindgren sent me a fax today asking about the potential for a large amount of gold being taken for delivery in the December future month settlement.
The 7,638 Comex gold contracts (see Delivery Notices) represents 736,800 ounces of gold whose present value at $450 represents a monetary value of $331,560,000 which is a significant take down on delivery.
If this is the beginning of a trend in delivery take down, then the price of gold is headed much much higher.
Trader Dan Comments:
Just got your fax as well concerning what appears to be 7,638 gold contracts being stopped which means taken delivery of. I am not sure. Looking at the delivery notices finds Bank of Nova Scotia as the big tender party (making delivery or obligated to).
It sure appears that someone is stopping them all. AIG, Deutsche Bank and HSBC are the largest stoppers (taking delivery). It is hard to say WHO they are accepting them for. I think what we need to watch is whether or not they RE-TENDER them. If not - this is amazing!
Here's the warehouse stocks data from the Nymex this afternoon Jim.This bears watching. What I will start doing is to track this info daily and let's see what names are standing for delivery and who is tendering to see if we can figure out what is going on.
A side note: HSBC is the tenderer of size in the silver contract (1,043 out of 1,391) and yet are among the larger stoppers in gold. That's interesting. Not sure what to make of that.
PARTY ON PEOPLE!!!!!
Grüssle,
Silversurfer
BILD beantwortet Fragen
Gab es den Nibelungen-Schatz wirklich?
Von PAUL C. MARTIN
Siegfrieds wunderschöne Gemahlin Kriemhild läßt den Schatz der Nibelungen durch die Finger gleiten, ist vom Glanz betört
Der Schatz der Nibelungen – das tiefste Geheimnis der deutschen Geschichte!
Nach dem TV-Knaller „Die Nibelungen“ auf SAT 1 Fragen über Fragen.
BILD beantwortet sie mit Hilfe alter Handschriften, Literatur und archivarischer Quellen.
Wurde der Schatz vielleicht schon längst gefunden?
Nein. Ein „Königsschatz“, der ihm am nächsten käme, wurde um 1700 in Enzen (bei Euskirchen, NRW) in einem Sarkophag geborgen. 14 Kilo Gold (Wert: 140 000 Euro) – inzwischen wieder spurlos verschwunden.
Woraus besteht der Nibelungenschatz?
Vermutung: schwere Goldbänder und -ringe. Wie der Schatz des Kriegervolks der Awaren, die bis Bayern vorgedrungen waren (von Karl dem Großen vernichtet). Ein Rest ihres Schatzes wurde vor 40 Jahren in der Nähe der Donau gefunden.
Dazu: Schmuck mit Halbedelsteinen. Sogar arabische Goldmünzen sind denkbar. Solche Münzhorte aus dem 10. Jh. fanden Ausgräber auch auf Island, der Heimat von Brunhild. Das Nibelungenlied zur Herkunft des Schatzes: „Der Hort liegt in einem Berg hinterm Eisland im nördlichsten Norden, wo die Sonne nicht scheint und die Erde nicht grünt.“
Wie groß war der Schatz?
Laut Nibelungenlied 144 Karren voll. Jeder hätte 300 Kilo tragen können. Goldwert: 430 Mio. Euro. Andere Quelle: ein „Balg“ (Schafs- oder Schweinehaut) „mit Gold gefüllt.“ Etwa 200 Kilo (2 Mio. Euro Materialwert).
Kann es noch eine Schatzkarte geben?
Nein. Alle Männer, die seinen Ort kannten, hatten ihn sich gemerkt und wollten ihn vermutlich mit einem goldenen „Rütelin“ (Wünschelrute), das im Lied erwähnt ist, wieder aufspüren. Sie haben auch unter Todesdrohung nichts verraten, wurden alle erschlagen.
Wo soll Hagen den Schatz versteckt haben?
Das Nibelungenlied: „Er ließ ihn bei dem Loche versenken in den Rhein.“ Hunderte von Schatzsuchern haben das Flußbett abgesucht, sogar mit Radar und Echolot – nichts! Möglich: Hagen hat den Schatz in einem früheren Rheinarm versenkt, der heute verlandet ist. Der Schatz könnte in bis zu 15 Metern Tiefe liegen.
Ist die Suche hoffnungslos?
Nein. Im September 2003 hat der Mainzer Stadtarchitekt Hans Jörg Jacobi auf der Flur „Lochheim“ am Altrhein (entspricht dem „Loche“ der Sage) in 10 Metern Tiefe eine Marmorplatte aus Belgien gefunden. Wo kostbarer Marmor versank, könnte das Nibelungengold vielleicht nicht weit sein.
Dürfte ich als Finder den Schatz behalten?
Nein. Er wäre „Kulturdenkmal“, müßte sofort gemeldet und abgeliefert werden. Der Finder kann den Wert schätzen lassen und würde ausbezahlt.
Hier auch ein schöner Chart (z.Z. jedenfalls)
[URL=http://www2.onwirtschaft.t-online.de/dyn/c/T-Online.de/Themen/Wirtschaft/Aktien/Suche/ExterneInhalte/ei-is-einzelwert,vv=dyn,ei=http://boerse.t-online.de/de/stk/ind/reports/chart.html?chart_market=SLV.FX1&chart_type=LINE&chart_datascale=abs&chart_axisscale=lin&chart_volume=1&chart_highlow=1&chart_avg1=200&chart_avg2=&chart_bench1=&chart_bench2=&chart_indicator1=&chart_indicator2=&sSymbol=SLV.FX1&chart_hist=1d&dummy=.html]Silber-intraday[/URL]
ja, sieht okay aus.
Was ist denn heute mit Silber am laufen?
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitco.com/images/live/silver.gif]
Hoffentlich nicht wieder der Auftakt zum "Sell-Off"!
at ageka
Merci, entscheidest Du nach Deinen Charts?
Gruss midas, z.Z. Brüssel 
Tag beginnt interessant
Hallo zusammen,
habe einen netten Kommentar gefunden, der den historischen Goldpreis und den per Inflation errechneten Goldpreis zeigt.
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Das zeigt nur mal wieder dass wir noch VIEL MEHR LUFT nach oben haben.
Grüssle,
Silversurfer
December 1 – Gold $453.40 up $2.40 – Silver $8.01 up 31 cents
It Appears Our Guy Is Winning The Shootout At The Silver OK Corral!
If we value independence, if we are disturbed by the growing conformity of knowledge, of values, of attitudes, which our present system induces, then we may wish to set up conditions of learning which make for uniqueness, for self-direction, and for self-initiated learning...Karl Rogers (Psychologist 1902-1987)
As a result of silver’s substantial move up today, I have been besieged about this comment in the Monday MIDAS:
"Special note: Something is in the works for silver which should give the shorts a real jolt. Should know before the end of the year if it will come to pass. Am unable to elaborate any further except to say it will make those who refuse to understand gold and silver are money to take notice. Will be wake-up call time, a significant one!"
Unfortunately, I am not at liberty to elaborate at the moment. However, I CAN SAY that yesterday afternoon was the Shootout at OK Corral. With silver doing what it is today, one can surmise our guy was quicker on the draw than their guy.
As soon as I am able I will explain this intrigue, and it will be my pleasure to do so. To give you some idea of the sensitivity of what is going on, my source is filling me in by overnight express mail – won’t even send me what might be up by email. Stay tuned!!!!!
March silver
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/35
Funds were substantial buyers of silver today with Morgan Stanley doing a bit of short-covering. Our floor source noted how few of the usual silver bulls have been long on this move up. Funds were buyers and the volume was not heavy. What was noticeable was the LACK of trade selling. It disappeared. Perhaps what is going on at the Silver OK Corral is the reason?
Silver guru David Morgan called last night all excited about silver, citing how DEC made it through the rollover period so easily. He had it nailed.
The silver open interest fell 549 contracts to 116,958.
Gold, which came in lower, followed silver higher. Got my juices going when it took out its double top at $455. That was too much for The Gold Cartel to live with so they beat it right back down. By day’s end we only made up for what we lost yesterday. Still, for The Gold Cartel to be going all out to batter bullion and to have gold make new highs for the move is good news for our team.
The dollar closed down .27 to 81.55, making new lows on the close. The euro lifted .28 to 133.20 and the pound shot up .0225 to 1.9315.
The gold open interest fell 9921 contracts to 345,646. This is good news for it has now contracted by 30,000 contracts with gold on its highs. When the specs pitch their longs, the commercial shorts have begun to run for the hills.
Spoke with Michael Kosares of USAGold today. He totally debunks what Gavin Maguire reported yesterday for Dow Jones. He says his gold business is booming. What is most impressive is the size of the orders, according to Mike. At times some of his staff are even having trouble keeping up with what has to be done it is so busy. Mike can’t figure out what Maguire is talking about. Concern over the dollar fall is spurring demand in a major league way according to this Colorado gold pro.
This is good news. With gold demand surging like this in the US there is no way The Gold Cartel is going to keep the price of gold from soaring in the months to come. They just don’t have enough physical to satisfy the growing world-wide demand.
A question from Down Under:
G'day Bill,
I note Midas said: "Gold has risen mostly in dollar terms, especially this last part of the run, because The Gold Cartel has engineered it this way to dampen gold investment excitement in the rest of the world." In Australia, the gold price has hardly moved in years. Could you explain how the cartel manipulates the $Aus (or currencies in general, whichever is easiest)?
Regards, Sid
Don’t know what they do in the currencies Sid. All I know is that it is clear they are holding gold down enough so that there are no gold bull markets other than in dollars. It could not be more obvious. When gold breaks out in foreign currency terms, it will be a signal The Gold Cartel has had it.
Gold in euros is only around 340.
John Brimelow Report
Indian and Middle East buying Rules
Wednesday, December 01, 2004
Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $8.27, PM $7.79, with world gold at $451.45 and $451.10. High: ample for legal imports. The rupee firmed again to another 7 month high of $1 = R44.45, where it ran into some opposition by the Reserve Bank. Indian demand is solidly supporting world gold at these level. To add perspective, the only time premiums were distinctly higher this year was at the end of the gold slump in late April/early May, when world gold bottomed around $380.
Another area providing solid support is the Middle East. Turkish gold import data for November, posted on the Istanbul Gold Exchange website today, reveal Turkey imported 13.34 tonnes of gold last month, 196% more than November last year, despite the weighted average price of gold (according to the Exchange) being 10.2% higher in Turkish currency terms and 14.9% higher in US dollars. Y-t-D imports are 11.5% above 2003, and in fact have already exceeded the total for last year, itself easily a record. Much of this metal is thought to be transshipped South and East: this data provides further evidence that the demand schedule for gold in the region has shifted.
(Imports were 10% down from October: November is usually a weak month. Silver imports Y-t-D are up a remarkable 33%. Maybe silver’s strength today is not irrational.)
TOCOM saw gold volume halve, down 52% to equal only 14,730 Comex lots. The active contract slipped 4 yen, but world gold gained $1.25 over the NY close. Open interest rose: up 999 Comex lots. The abruptness of the change implies that yesterday’s flurry might have been a Fund. There is some talk of appreciable Australian selling, supposedly miners stimulated by the weak $A induced local gold price. One doubts there is much flexibility amongst Australian miners: perhaps this is more evidence of Fund activity in Asia.
NY yesterday traded 83,939 lots, with open interest falling 9,921 contracts to 345,646. Following the 10 AM economic data, the market was hit by a fierce bout of selling. ScotiaMocatta says
"Gold…found sellers after the release of better than expected US economic data…from both funds and New York dealers, bottoming out at 448.00/448.50. Gold did not remain below 450.00 for very long as physical traders turned out to be keen buyers…The metal soon traded back above 450.00 where local short covering appeared"
Standard London amplifies:
"…with steady investment bank selling in the market, gold declined. Stops around $452 on Comex seemed to assist the downward move…"
In essence, an opportunistic raid alarmed weak longs, but was stopped in its tracks by the physical market. This support did not apparently include ETF buying: the bullion holdings of which were virtually unchanged.
A similar if less dramatic pattern was seen just before the NY opening today. Gold has of course underperformed the major currencies since early last week for the usual reason – the heavy selling just below $450 last week has only retreated to just under $455. But on the basis of today’s information data from the key physical buying regions, it will soon have to retreat some more.
JB
All MIDAS readers are aware that knowing what the Indian premiums have been the past many months has been a KEY factor in understanding this gold bull market. John Brimelow’s work has been brilliant. He has gone out of his way to explain to Café members what this is all about:
Indian Premiums.
For centuries, India has been a massive importer of both gold and silver. For the Hindu majority in particular, gold jewelry and silver ornaments have deep appeal rooted in culture and tradition. Local mine supplies are limited.
A popular estimate is that some 15,000 tonnes of gold is in private hands in India. That is some 10% of the total world gold stock. By contrast, Central Banks claim to have a total of just over 31,000 tonnes, but an unknown quantity has been lent ("leased") out. Actual gold holdings of the Central Banks and the Indian public may in fact be quite similar.
Indians are constantly buying and selling gold to one another. Prices for the various grades and sizes popularly traded are collected by merchant associations and reported for many cities by the Indian press, usually on a twice daily basis. These could be thought of as the "small wholesale" or "large retail" prices. It is reasonable to assume that public interest and competitive pressure between the news vendors keeps them realistic.
For over 30 years, the import of gold into India was illegal, which lead to heavy smuggling. Starting in the mid 1990s more enlightened policies were progressively adopted such that gold (and silver) can now be imported freely on payment of a moderate duty.
What is of interest to outsiders is, are prices in India high enough to pay the costs of importing? Essentially, this means buying the gold in the world market by converting rupees into dollars, shipping it, paying the import duty (currently10.2 Rupees per gram), the sales tax of the local state (supposed to be harmonized at 1%, but there are a few deviants) any other local taxes, and leaving a profit margin.
The two big items are the import duty and the sales tax. I focus on what I call the "ex-duty premium" because it is a clear starting point. So, for instance, in the afternoon of November 30, 2004, in the usually leading import city, Bombay .999 gold was 670.5 rupees per gram. The exchange rate was $1 =R44.6375. This meant that Bombay gold was $467.21 per oz. World gold was $451.85. Import duty came to $7.11 per oz, leaving $8.25 as the "ex-duty" premium. Out of this sales tax would have to be paid, say $4.52, leaving $3.73 for other costs and profit. Gold will be transported immense distances for profits of less than $1 per oz, so it is safe to say that Bombay was a buyer from the world that afternoon.
Modern communications have revolutionized the relationship between the Indian gold trade and the world. Using telephone and the internet, Indian arbitrage dealers/importers trade to the end of the NY day. There have been estimates that laying off their business sometimes accounts for as much as a fifth of Comex volume.
Secondly, and greatly to the irritation of these Indians, it is possible, with some effort, to identify quite precisely gold and exchange rates at the key times of the day and perform these calculations. This would have been impossible only a very few years ago. So it possible to settle quantitatively the question of whether India is or is not an importer at any point.
India is by far the biggest importer in the world. One of the largest participants in the business has estimated the country might import 880 tonnes this year. This would be a third of global mine production.
Indian demand is price sensitive (in rupees). High premiums have been a fairly good indicator of lows in the world gold price. Sometimes, world gold rises high enough that imports are not possible. Very rarely, world prices get so high that the premium is not enough to cover the import duty, which creates a negative "ex duty premium". I have never seen Indian prices anywhere near being actually below world prices. Exports sourced in India have therefore never been practical, although it is said this did occur in early 1981.
JB
November 30, 2004
CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH
Hello, this is Murphy on Mars to Earth. With what is going on in the world and in the US economy, the roaring US stock market makes no sense. What the heck is going on down there? The DOG rocketed up 162 to 10,590 as did the DOG which jumped 41 to 2138 jumped 41 to 2138.
I’m glad I’m not writing stock market commentary. I’d be going broke. The soaring stock market seems to be nothing more than a money game. De Nial is winning the day. Seems the momentum traders are too. Funds are pouring in from those who don’t want to miss the big money to be made. Meanwhile, investors can’t wait to chuck their gold shares. This is all ludicrous. Gold (and silver) is THE investment opportunity of a lifetime and the US stock market is a disaster waiting to happen. Keep this and bring it to my attention 6 months or a year from now.
The 30-year bond is breaking down and has completed a massive top, while the dollar continues its Niagara Falls act:
30-year T Bond
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/C4
Even my friend Mahendra, who has nailed so many markets of late is frustrated with the US stock market, sending out this missive today:
Dear Members,
I know I have off-track on stock market prediction but my study shows today will be final day of upward trend and market will not hold here. This may be went up because of oil correction which I predicted in this week newsletter.
If with in 48 hours market doesn't fall than I may stop predicting on USA market for some time.
48 HOURS WILL ANSWER.
Metals are approaching toward new high - Don't sell or short.
Corn is now on my top list of investment.
Thanks & God Bless
Mahendra
http://www.mahendraprophecy.com/
Mahendra called today after sending out this email, suggesting I get out my "Ten Horns" hat. Going to need it soon according to this seer. While he is having trouble calling the US stock market, he nailed the move down in oil. Still knocking em dead with gold and silver too.
The US economic news of the day:
08:30 October Personal Spending reported 0.7% vs. consensus 0.4%; Income 0.6% vs. consensus 0.5%
Prior Spending unrevised 0.2%; Income unrevised at 0.6%. Deflator reported 2.4% vs. consensus 2.4%.
* * * * *
10:00 Nov. Prices Paid reported 74 vs. consensus 75.3
Prior reading was 78.5.
* * * * *
10:00 Nov. ISM Manufacturing reported 57.8 vs. consensus 57
Prior reading 56.8.
* * * * *
10:00 Oct. Construction Spending reported 0.0% vs. consensus 0.7%
Prior reading revised to 0.1% from 0.0%.
* * * * *
10:31 DOE reports crude oil inventories +900K barrels vs. expectations (200K) barrels
Gasoline inventories reported +3M barrels vs. consensus +1.1M barrels. Distillate inventories reported +2.3M barrels vs. consensus +1.5M barrels. January crude is trading lower in initial reaction to the data.
* * * * *
10:32 API reports crude oil inventories +1.3M barrels
Distillate inventories +4.4M barrels, while gasoline inventories +512K barrels. In reaction to data, Jan. crude currently trading lowr to $48.30 from $48.70 prior.
* * * * *
Oil collapsed, falling $3.64 per barrel to $45.49, a level thought unacceptable less than a year ago.
14:03 Fed says almost all districts report improved economic growth
Data shows manufacturing increased across U.S., noting that some industries are able to pass through price increases. Fed saw numerous reports of hiring during mid-October to mid-November. Survey indicates little wage pressures and higher benefit costs. The data, provided by the Dallas Fed, indicates consumer spending was "uneven." Dow +1.17% to 10550.39; S&P 500 +1.13% to 1187.13; Nasdaq Composite +1.55% to 2129.4.
* * * * *
14:09 San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen says real GDP is growing modestly above trend
Yellen says oil prices, business investment and the trade deficit are all negative for the economy. Yellen says Oct. payroll data was very good, though notes little change in inflation expectations, noting that inflation remains well contained. Bonds remain lower. 10-yr. (6/32) to 4.37%.
Economic news from Economic news from Aussie Land:
Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's economic growth rate more than halved in the third quarter to its slowest pace in almost four years as exports, home building and company inventories declined.
Gross domestic product, a measure of all goods and services produced, rose 0.3 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30 from the previous quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. Growth was less than economists expected and slowed from a revised 0.8 percent in the second quarter.
A slowdown in Asia's fifth-largest economy, which has been expanding for 13 years, supports the central bank's statement last month that there is ``no pressing need'' to raise interest rates. Reports yesterday showed retail sales fell 0.7 percent in October and approvals for housing dropped to the lowest in 3 1/2 years.
-END-
