Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Dollar Rises as Fed's Poole Suggests Accelerated Rate Increases
Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) --

The dollar rose almost a cent against the euro, the most in a week, after a Federal Reserve official suggested U.S. policy makers may accelerate the pace of interest-rate increases, widening a gap with the euro region.

The Fed may drop its plan to lift rates at a ``measured' pace, language used through five quarter-point increases last year, St. Louis Fed bank President William Poole said late yesterday. The dollar extended gains after European Central Bank council member Axel Weber said higher U.S. rates and faster U.S. growth compared with the euro region may support the currency…..

The dollar also rose after President George W. Bush said inan interview with USA Today the U.S. has a ``strong dollarpolicy'' and will act to reduce its budget and trade deficits.

``The world is watching this administration to see whether or not we're willing to take on the deficits and we'll show that willingness,'' Bush said, according to a transcript of the interview posted on the newspaper's Web site late yesterday....

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La La Land rules the day again. Or more specifically, jawboning does the trick. Yesterday the stock market acted as if it was about to really break down. The next thing you know a Fed Governor is out talking up the economy and the dollar. Earlier in the week another Fed Governor said the same thing and it had no effect on the markets. The difference was The Working Group on Financial Markets was on the sidelines during the earlier comments.

There is no other logical explanation for how the markets traded today:

*The euro fell 1.07 to 131.03, yet the yen rose 1/2% to 102.01. The dollar gained .56 to 83.13.

*If the comments were so bullish for the economy and dollar, why did the bonds only fall 1/8 to 113 14/32? They are not far off from making new highs, not lows. This does not jibe with what Poole says. (Yes the PPI was lower than expected, however that is "old" news, besides being very suspect.)

*The $60 billion dollar trade deficit has now been thrown out the window and deemed irrelevant by the market or the PPT. What mattered in the end was rhetoric and market manipulation.

*But, there is no inflation! Tell that to the oil buyers. Feb WTI closed at $48.38, up 34 cents. Only 18 months ago $43 oil was thought to be disastrous for the US economy. Then again, so what? In 1998, the trade deficit was $12 billion. Goldman Sachs projected the budget deficit would soar to $19 billion. The reaction back then to that prediction was one of disbelief – a number that high was thought to be very negative for our financial markets. Now $60 billion elicits yawns. PRICE ACTION MAKES MARKET COMMENTARY and the PPT knows it.

*So if fear of escalating interest rates spooked dollar shorts, why did it encourage stock investors? The DOW rose 52 to 10,558 and the DOG leaped 17 to 2087. Going on for years now, each time the US stock market is about to cave to the downside, it rallies back for one reason or another.

While the price-capping activity of The Gold Cartel has been a bit of a bummer, it is no time to go in the tank and walk away from our precious metals investments. After the kind of recent orchestrated drubbing gold took from the cabal, the gold market historically takes WEEKS to recover. Thus what we are seeing now is normal, frustrating market action. Pile on top of that the huge amount of specs who were flushed out and the composure period could be prolonged even further than normal.

The COT report was a beauty and right in line with my high expectations. The large specs reduced their longs by 30,974 and increased their shorts by 5,482, while the commercials increased their longs by 5,132 and reduced their shorts by 30,263. This means the commercials have reduced their net short position by around 70,000 contracts in two weeks. The orchestrated raid by The Gold Cartel to allow the crooks to dramatically reduce their shorts has worked to perfection.

The silver stocks fell 606,321 ounces to 102,658,698. Good news. Getting below 100 million ounces not far off.

Not MIDAS talking here, but a fellow Café member:

Bill,
This action today is so typical – I’ve seen this umpteen times – all in the last 30 minutes of COMEX. And particularly when there are looming holidays and thin market conditions. They use Loonie (USDCAD) as the ring in the nose of the bull in an attempt to move all the USD pairs along with it and take the metals down for the close. Then after Comex closes Loonie collapses – all designed to get margin selling in the next time zone.
Today the Loonie action was timed to perfection to halt also an upward break in the EURO from 1.3130 that would have taken us up significantly for sure.There is no doubt that this currency action along with similar manipulation in gold is Snow’s so called "strong dollar policy".
Regds
Dave

The John Brimelow Report

India positive; Gartman - e.g. Hedge funds - negative

Friday, January 14, 2005

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.74, PM $8.08, with world gold at $423.10 and $421.80. High: ample for legal imports.

Reuters reports that Indian auto sales in December were 20.6% above ’03, "utility vehicles" (underpowered autos) were up 40.7% and motor cycles up 51.62%. This bias towards down market growth probably explains the relative dynamism of the domestic silver market, which as noted yesterday, justified air shipments of silver imports last week for the first time in many years.

According to Mitsubishi, the Japanese public increased their long today by another 3 tonnes - 964 Comex lots. This may be related to TOCOM gold making a 4 month low today, the Japanese being notable bottom fishers. Volume jumped 103% to the equivalent of 28,537 Comex lots and open interest rose by 606 Comex lot equivalent. (NY yesterday traded 42,197 lots; open interest rose another 394 lots.)

The Gartman Letter, having muttered yesterday about going long at $410 (e.g. appreciably higher than the previous target) has been refreshed in its bearishness:

"What is interesting is that even as the commodity prices are up materially, precious metals are not…GATA will blame that failure upon collusion amongst the bullion banks and the governments; we'll blame upon a lack of buyers and a stronger US dollar."

Asserting that there are a lack of gold buyers, of course, is simply wrong – Turkey’s December imports, before the latest decline, being the most recent official quantification – but taken as an insight into the sentiment (and hopes) of certain US Hedge funds, this remark probably explains much of recent behavior in gold, especially in NY hours.

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

US economic news:

08:30 Nov. Business Inventories reported 1% vs. consensus 0.6%
Prior reading revised to 0.4% from 0.2%.
* * * * *

08:30 Dec. PPI reported (0.7%) vs. consensus (0.1%); ex-Food & Energy reported 0.1% vs. consensus 0.2%
Prior total PPI unrevised at 0.5%; ex-Food & Energy unrevised at 0.2%.

Bill,
The PPI stunt today smacks of desperation. The drop in oil prices in December could not produce such a rapid affect on PPI. First of all it takes 6 weeks to transport oil from the Middle East. Second a large part of imports are made on long term contracts with suppliers, not purchased ad-hoc on the Spot market price.
This is manipulation that is as subtle as a sledge-hammer. If the level of blatant manipulation is a good indicator of the proximity of the day of reckoning we should be pretty damn close.
Cheers
Adrian

Analyse über den Zusammenhang von Dow-Jones-Entwicklung und Entwicklung von Goldaktien:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/taylor011705.html

Besonders interessant ist hierbei die deutlich bessere Entwicklung der Junior Goldminen und vor allem die Entwicklung im Zeitraum 1929 ff.

From the King Report last evening:

Bruce Bartlett, a Bush supporter, is despondent over Bush’s Tax Commission. Bush has allocated little time to do serious reformation; the commission members aren’t known for advocating real reform and Bush wants any reform to be ‘revenue neutral’. http://www.townhall.com/column…bartlett/bb20050112.shtml

Anyone that is bullish on the belief that Bush would provide an economic spark is chagrined. W has no real tax reform policy and by extrapolation no real economic policy for the necessary fundamental change. It appears that all Bush intended to do he did in the way of quick economic fixes in order to get re-elected. And as we have written, those quick fixes were crony capitalism in which corporations got an influx of cash, insiders sold record amounts of shares and the US government, taxpayers and consumers added significantly to their already record debt loads…Perhaps this another aggravation for Mr. Market.,,

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Some input on the real economy:

Comex Silver stocks down 606,321
Must be why silver dropped 12 cents.
Appreciate all your work and daily commentary.
Keep up the good work and remember there are many behind you that you don't hear from on a daily basis.
As for electrical construction work in Chicago here is a link to follow.
http://www.local134.com/pages/areferral.html
There are 1592 electricians out of work. Its taking 8 to 10 months to get a long call. This is not even counting all those working part time. I have only worked 17 days since Nov 10. I personally know of two electrical contractors which have half their crews just sitting home (about 30 men each company sitting home). They do not show up in gov. statistics or union stats. They are just sitting... waiting and hoping for a project to start.
On the bright side there are still over 10,000 electricians still working.
Have a good weekend watching football.
Harry

The way it is as a pro sees it:

Bill,
Writing you for the first time since I've been reading your column in over a year now. I feel obliged to you for the torch you carry. Being a commodity trader for these past 10 years of my life has been an eye opening experience. You write every day of the manipulation in the Gold and Silver futures market on the Comex. I see with my own eyes the large New York banks try and manipulate other commodity markets (Oil, Gas, Copper etc.). I find there actions reprehensible. Anyone with half a brain can see what is going on. They are using derivatives and leverage to smash markets that are vulnerable. But I believe that in these markets the keener traders are catching on. I even listened in on an analyst conference where the attendees complained that the rumor of a China slowdown kept slamming the price of copper. Even when this rumor has turned out to be false several times in a row. Notice how commodities always take the brunt of any "liquidity driven crisis."

However I digress. What I am writing to say is that I support the efforts of Gata and believe that we as Americans must work to set the truth free. If Gold falls on its face so be it. If paper falls on it's face then the chips fall where they do. You do an amazing job of keeping me informed but more importantly keeping me motivated. I have 70% of my investments in Mining stocks and 30% in energy. I do not intend to cash out of this bull market for many years. Tangibles of which Gold is king are complety undervalued these days. Till then thank you for your efforts and those of Gata in setting free the truth in regards to Gold and the CB's manipulations. May our side and real money win.
MB

Holding dollars a loser:

From Reuters
Thursday, January 13, 2005
FRANKFURT -- The European Central Bank will post a 2004 budget loss for the second year in a row due to the U.S. dollar's decline against the euro, the ECB Vice President Lucas Papademos said on Thursday.

Papademos said at the ECB's news monthly conference that the bulk of the central bank's foreign exchange reserves are held in dollars. The U.S. currency has lost about 7 percent of its value against the euro in the past year.

He declined to reveal the exact size of ECB dollar holdings. The ECB will release its 2004 financial results in March.

The euro's rising external value over the course of 2004, particularly against the dollar, has raised expectations that the ECB's net losses have widened due to the declining euro value of the central bank's dollar-denominated assets and low domestic and foreign interest rates.

This development would be similar to 2003, when the ECB made a net loss of 477 million euros compared with a profit of 1.22 billion euros in 2002.

The euro's gain against the dollar in 2004 compared with a gain of over 20 percent the year before.

The central bank's policymaking Governing Council decided to offset the 2003 loss against the ECB's general reserve fund.

A net loss for the ECB in 2004 could have knock-on effects for the profits of national central banks in the euro area, which would have shared in any profit.

Germany's Bundesbank, for example, is expected to see almost no profit in 2004 and would therefore not be in a position to transfer some 2 billion euros that Finance
Minister Hans Eichel has penciled into this year's federal budget.

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What makes NO SENSE:

Gold ETF continues to shine
Assets near $2B as fund adds 47 tonnes to holdings

By John Spence, CBS MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 2:52 PM ET Jan. 14, 2005

BOSTON (CBS.MW) -- After quickly gathering $1 billion in assets during its hot mid-November launch, an exchange-traded fund investing in gold bullion is set to double that total.

In just the first eight trading days of the new year, the StreetTracks Gold Trust (GLD: news, chart, profile) added 47 tonnes to its gold holdings, or about half of the gold accumulated by the ETF between its launch and the end of 2004, according to a research note released Thursday by Mitsui Global Precious Metals analyst Andy Smith.

In other words, so far in 2005 the gold ETF has added three times last year's total sales of U.S. Eagle gold coins, or more than 1,500 tons on an annualized basis.

Through Thursday, the gold ETF had about 142.7 tonnes of the precious metal and a net asset value of more than $1.9 billion and 45.9 million shares outstanding, according to the StreetTracks Gold Shares Web site…..

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This sort of NEW buying, if it is that, should have the gold camp jumping up and down for joy. Yet, during this period the price of gold has tanked despite this sizeable new buying. What is there to be joyous about and what good does this GLD do any of us? Not only has the gold price collapsed, it became unmoored from the weakness of the dollar during this same period. The euro is at the same price level it was when gold was trading $30 higher. AND, to boot, the gold shares have dropped 20% while GLD was loading the boat.

Meanwhile this huge GLD buying JUST HAPPENS to coincide with the covering of shorts by Goldman Sachs and friends. How is it that the specs are running away from their Comex positions in droves, yet we are led to believe other kind of specs are all running into GLD? Something is not right here, as oft-repeated by me. This GLD stinks to high heaven.

I am going to resonate what Rich C says below at the Vancouver gold conference a week Sunday, the 23rd, and then announce what GATA plans to do about it!!!!!!!

Bill,
For the life of me, I can not understand why the gold industry would affiliate themselves with the World Gold Council, who has allied with Jessica Cross. The poison spewed by her and cited in Midas 1/12/05 is incredulous! It is clearly an insight into their next wave of propaganda, which they hope will drive all investors away from anything gold, so they could buy it all for themselves.

Her comments concerning the present disdain for gold amongst the "ruling class", because the "bling-bling" and "chavs" adorn it in cheap nine carrot jewelry, reveal a great deal about the cartel's mindset. Terms such as "ruling class" and "elitist appeal" speak volumes about Jessica Cross's own superiority complex, which is evident throughout the plutocrats now manipulating the markets. In the past, these inflammatory comments might incite a revolution or result in a beheading. But, we are so much more civilized today then in Marie Antoinette's era. Too bad, because some public executions would do wonders for my outrage about the double standards we presently endure.

She is wrong of course! As one who has spent a great deal of time working amongst the culture of poverty, I can attest that icons adorned by those spirited folks enjoy enduring, great success; think BMW! As Bimmer became the vehicle of choice amongst gang bangin drug dealers, there was no exodus from that product line by the upper crust. Nor is that evident with Cadillac Escalades. These dirt bags will stoop below pond scum to denigrate gold, and the pathetic, aloof industry just yawns in their never ending detachment! Why can't they follow Wal-Mart's lead, and come out punching in their own defense? They are betraying the only people who support them, us precious metal mining investors, and when we walk away in disgust; they will learn about betrayal as the cartel drops them into oblivion. Go GATA!
Rich

The gold shares continue to do their own disappearing act. Stale longs are exiting day after day. Not a good move in my book.

The XAU lost .87 to 93.25 and the HUI gave up 2.05 to 202.70.

These are not happy times for the gold and silver camp. However, the big picture has not changed one iota. The US deficit problems are worsening, the US economy looks very soft, the outlook for the dollar is grim, and Iraq is beyond a mess. Meanwhile, the demand for physical gold is soaring in India, Turkey, etc.

It won’t be long before gold takes out $430 again and silver blows through $7.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

From my friend Mahendra:

Dear Bill,
It is time to expound on a few IMPORTANT POINTS so that you may clear your doubts and have an indication of the direction in which to trade for the long term. Following are several issues which I believe will be helpful towards this end:

Many of my followers are a little confused in regard to my recent remarks about the strengthening of the US Dollar and weakness in metals. Let me confirm that the dollar will indeed gain, but this upsurge will not be sustained for long. In actual fact, the maximum period for which the dollar could stay up for three months and can remain stable for seven months, after which it will be relegated to the sidelines once more. Likewise, the Euro and the British Pound will also not perform well (I SEE THESE CURRENCIES COLLAPSING). It is therefore clear that GOLD WILL BE THE ONLY PHYSICAL ENTITY THAT SHALL TRIUMPH AGAINST THE CURRENCIES. Consequently, THERE IS NO NEED TO BUY THE US Dollar or sell the Euro: just buy the GOLD.

GOLD VS DOLLAR - It is quite apparent that the dollar factor was present in the last week of December. It is still there in the current month of January and it will in fact persist into the first two weeks of February as well. During this period, two powerful boxers will be squaring it out in the ring [US DOLLAR vs. GOLD]. Though gold may take some pretty strong punches at first, it will absorb the bashing quite easily and eventually emerge victorious by mid February. This remarkable resilience of gold is owing to the fact that compared to the dollar, it is the real thing and also part of nature. Very soon, the world shall witness the Dollar rising simultaneously with gold, though the major rally of gold prices will be from mid 2006. After this, gold will reach $1000.

In the preceding statement, I am talking about a strong dollar but it will still not remain strong in the long run. It may gain 12 to 15% against European currencies but then it will fall against Gold.

Silver will be the key investment area to watch for the next three years. I do not want to predict the price target but one thing is sure; its prices will surprise the investor community. Just be patient and wait for the right buying opportunity and don't short silver at all. Soon in the next few months silver will start trading above $10.

I WOULD LIKE TO BRING THREE IMPORTANT FACTORS TO YOUR ATTENTION:

1. GREAT CRASH IN WORLD STOCK MARKET INDEXES - Once again I am waiting for the occurrence of a major crash of all markets, which is now not very far. Nature’s wave is gradually trying to grasp it and pull it down to where no one can come forward in its support. The crash will render a lot of people bankrupt and many will go into depression. Major banks and financial institutions as well as funds will close down overnight. People will queue out side of these luxurious offices and demand a refund of their hard earned money. The USA and EUROPE will be the worst hit by this crash. Though the Asian markets will also be severely affected, they will survive. Please note that my intention is not to scare anyone; I am merely exercising my duty to warn you.)

2. BURSTING OF THE HOUSING BUBBLE – A few years back I predicted a great rise in property prices in the USA and Britain. The period for thriving is now over and we are very close to the bursting of the housing bubble. After this, we shall not see the current valuation for next 29 years. This burst will have an immense negative impact on the banking/financial industry. Due to several reasons some of which I am mentioning in this letter, there will simply be no buyers for properties.

3. CRASH OF THE VALUE OF THE US DOLLAR AND EUROPEAN CURRENCIES - Any time from 2006, a big crash of the value of the US Dollar will occur. The value of money will plummet by up to 90%. This will be like a revolution in itself and it will be very interesting to watch what the role of the government and the Federal Reserve will be. The melt down in the value of various currencies will be a clear sign of inflation but the question is ‘who will have any buying power?’ The situation will be combination of inflation, deflation, recession and depression, a phenomenon I choose to call "slepplession".

4. NATURE’S UNREST AND AN UNCERTAIN WORLD SITUATION - We have seen the terror of nature unleashed by the recent tsunami. I have been warning of a natural catastrophe. For instance in 2002 World Prophecies, I stated that weather conditions in the whole world would change and disrupt people’s lives. Every so often, nature presents circumstances in which not much can be done. (It is like when a child spills coffee on his father’s suit. Since the deed is already done, there isn’t much that the father can do about it). Natural disasters will therefore continue to play a devastating role in world affairs. I don't want to scare people and I shall therefore not specifically name the region where the next major calamity will befall. Suffice is to say that by June 2005, two major world cities could be destroyed by nature.

5. CHINA COLLAPSING – Back in 1987 when I predicted the collapse and eventual disintegration of the USSR, people were extremely reluctant to believe me. Today, I predict a similarly astounding prospect. There will be a great social and economic collapse of China in the next 40 months. I know that many people will not believe me, but the first sign of this will come within a few months when China will announce an economic slow down as well as an internal financial crisis. The Chinese currency will drastically lose its value and they might introduce other currencies following the collapse of the banking or financial system. Countries banking a great deal on China may also face a crisis as a result of the Chinese breakdown.

I know that it is hard to believe what I am saying today but this has always been the case with my predictions. Time will be the only answer. It is not my intention to scare anybody but after reading this letter, one should remain very alert on any future planning. Due to their significance, I have been talking a lot concerning metals. The magnitude of their significance will be further demonstrated by many countries taking control over all mining areas as a result of the economic meltdown. The USA may attempt to gain control over the world’s gold production, but we shall see what happens then...maybe it will be a new war for acquiring gold and silver, as these will be the only valuable assets or currencies left following the economic meltdown and currency devaluation.

Thanks & God Bless,
Mahendra
http://www.MahendraProphesy.com
12 Jan 2005

January 17 – Gold $422 – Silver $6.56

IMF Deceit, UK’s Brown A Hypocritical Farce, SA’s Manuel Nearly A Traitor

If we do not do what our duty tells us must be done, we will live in odium in the history of our progeny and our posterity... John Maxwell (Struggle For the Future; Jamaica Observer - Kingston, Jan 9, 2005)

GO GATA!!!

We know The Gold Cartel is in trouble. Whenever their available gold supply used to suppress the price has run way down, they rally their spokesmen to beat the drums for the IMF to sell gold to aid the poor. We have seen this modus operandi many times over the years.

The latest developments in this world sham/disgrace, which represents one of the most egregious examples of elitist hypocrisy of all time:

Use IMF gold to write off debt: Brown

January 17

By Lynn Bolin

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown has voiced his support for plans for International Monetary Fund (IMF) gold reserves to be used to finance debt relief for the world's 70 poorest countries.

Addressing a gathering of 18 African finance ministers at the Commission for Africa meeting in Cape Town on Monday, Brown also called for the establishment of an international financing facility to generate an additional USD 50 billion annually in extra resources to help achieve the United Nations' (UN) Millennium Development Goals (MDG) by the target of 2015.

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