Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Gold swaps and Gold loans or deposits

Background

Gold swaps are usually undertaken between monetary authorities. The gold is exchanged for foreign exchange deposits (or other reserve assets) with an agreement that the transaction be unwound at an agreed future date, at an agreed price. The monetary authority acquiring the foreign exchange will pay interest on the foreign exchange received. Gold swaps are typically undertaken when the cash-taking monetary authority has need of foreign exchange but does not wish to sell outright its gold holdings. In that manner, gold is a leveraging device. Gold swaps sometimes involve transactions where one of the parties is not a monetary authority (usually it is another depository corporation). Gold swaps between monetary authorities do not usually involve the payment of margin.

Gold loans or deposits are undertaken by monetary authorities to obtain a non-holding gain return on gold which otherwise earns none. The gold is "lent to" (or "deposited with") a resident or nonresident financial institution (such as a bullion bank) or another party in the gold market with which the monetary authority has dealings and confidence and which is probably acting as an intermediary for a gold dealer or gold miner which has a temporary shortage of gold. The intermediary will, in turn, "lend" the gold to the dealer or miner – in effect, a change in ownership of nonmonetary gold then occurs. In return, the borrower may provide the monetary authorities with high quality collateral, usually securities (frequently, but not necessarily, substantially in excess of the value of the gold provided) but not cash, and will pay a "fee" thereby increasing the return from holding gold. The collateral does not change ownership and is treated as an off-balance sheet holding of the monetary authority8.

The nature of gold swaps and gold loans/deposits is similar to that of repos and securities lending in that the market risk toward the underlying asset (in this case, gold) remains with the original holder: if gold prices increase, the volume of gold returned is the same as that swapped, while the same value of the foreign exchange (as defined at the time of the initiation of the swap, plus any accrued interest) is returned.

Statistical treatment

The statistical implications of gold swaps and gold loans/deposits are complex and have not been fully worked through. Work is still being undertaken by the Committee to address the implications. In particular, gold may be double counted with either a gold swap or gold loan/deposit if the party acquiring the gold were to on-sell it outright, because both the original owner and the outright purchaser would report ownership of the gold. In addition, there is the difficulty of having monetary gold being used in these transactions for purposes other than for reserve assets, and how (de)monetization would apply if the gold is sold for industrial purposes. Moreover, there is a proposal to treat (some) nonmonetary gold as a financial asset, rather than a commodity, and the outcome of that discussion may have further implications on the treatment of gold swaps and gold loans/deposits.

Finally, how the "fee" for gold swaps and gold loans/deposits should be treated has yet to be resolved. All these matters are being considered by the Committee and a report will be taken to the AEG in due course.

-END-

I will do the best I can to get right to the point on this dry subject for it is an ESSENTIAL to the GATA argument. GATA says the gold loans/swaps are 16,000 tonnes plus, meaning half the central bank gold is not there any more. The gold establishment now says they are less than 3500 tonnes out on loans, as 1500 tonnes have been returned by gold producers over the past three years.

GATA says the central banks, at the behest of The Gold Cartel and the IMF, are purposely deceiving the citizens and investing public of the world as to the true status of how much gold the central banks really have. The statement above that central banks may have double counted their true gold reserves is an admittance of what they have done.

Now to the evidence which proves THEY DID SO DELIBERATELY!! In the following piece I wrote in a similar state of rage years ago, it reveals central banks emailing GATA that the IMF instructed them to account for lent/swapped gold as reserves, while denying in writing to GATA that was the case! GATA’s Andrew Hepburn caught the IMF in a blatant lie. Touche:

December 18, 2001

http://www.gata.org/bofi.html

The Bank of Italy Confirms Gold Cartel, IMF Gold Deception

The following documentation and statements were presented in Reg Howe's lawsuit filed in the District Court of Massachusetts against Defendants: Bank for International Settlements, Alan Greenspan, William J. McDonough, J.P. Morgan & Co. Inc., Chase Manhattan Corp., Citigroup, Inc., Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Deutsche Bank AG and Lawrence H. Summers, Secretary of the Treasury.

*In July 1998, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, testifying before the House Banking Committee, stated: "Nor can private counterparties restrict supplies of gold, another commodity whose derivatives are often traded over-the-counter, where central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise." This statement amounted to a declaration that the gold price had been and would continue to be controlled.

*According to reliable reports received by the plaintiff, this effort was later described by Edward A. J. George, Governor of the Bank of England and a director of the BIS, to Nicholas J. Morrell, Chief Executive of Lonmin Plc:

We looked into the abyss if the gold price rose further. A further rise would have taken down one or several trading houses, which might have taken down all the rest in their wake. Therefore at any price, at any cost, the central banks had to quell the gold price, manage it. It was very difficult to get the gold price under control but we have now succeeded. The U.S. Fed was very active in getting the gold price down. So was the U.K.

The "abyss" comment made by George and related by Morrell is no rumor monger talk. Morrell quoted George in front of three people that I know personally pursuant to the dramatic rise in the price of gold following the surprise Washington Agreement announced on September 26, 1999.

The evidence that the GATA Army has collected over the past year since Reg Howe filed his Complaint fully supports Morrell's comment that the central banks would do anything to "manage" the price of gold. Tragically, "anything" came to mean lying, deceiving and breaking various laws.

The essence of the Washington Agreement was that 15 European banks agreed to limit the sales of central bank gold to 400 tonnes per year for 5 years and not to increase their lending of gold over that time. The British and the Americans were not clued in prior to the announcement.

The reaction of the gold price to the Washington Agreement was the most dramatic rise in the price of gold ever. That is not what any of the central bankers had in mind. They were just perturbed at the tactics of The Gold Cartel to suppress the gold price and wanted to do something about it. They had no intention of creating financial chaos.

How could they have been so surprised at what occurred? Easy. They were working off the inept gold industry gold loan numbers of less than 5,000 tonnes. The real number was more than double that at the time, which means the central banks had FAR less gold in their vaults than they realized.

The announcement set off a panic because the yearly supply/demand was running over 1600 tonnes (again, more than they realized) and there would be no way to hold the gold price down under the new agreement. The scheming Gold Cartel was in deep trouble. Something had to be done FAST. A solution had to be found that would allow the central banks and The Gold Cartel to calm down the market by feeding central bank gold into that market to satisfy the strong gold demand.

The problem for The Gold Cartel and the central banks was they needed to come up with a way to get the job done and not let the investment world realize the seriousness of the situation. Some sort of plan of deception had to be devised and one was - in Santiago, Chile in October 1999 by the IMF. The plan centered around IMF central bank members "swapping out" their gold, yet still accounting for that gold as a central bank gold asset.

To put it bluntly, they would perpetuate a lie about what the true status of central bank gold really was. We know that to be the case as a result of the super-sleuthing of GATA Army's Andrew Hepburn of Canada.

Andrew asked the IMF the following:

Why does the IMF insist that members record swapped gold as an asset when a legal change in ownership has occurred?

The IMF answered:

"This is not correct: the IMF in fact recommends that swapped gold be excluded from reserve assets. (see Data Template on International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity, Operational Guidelines, para. 72,)"

Yet, the following can be found on the central bank of The Philippines website:

"Beginning January 2000, in compliance with the requirements of the IMF's reserves and foreign currency liquidity template under the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS), gold swaps undertaken by the BSP with non-central banks shall be treated as collateralized loan. Thus, gold under the swap arrangement remains to be part of reserves and a liability is deemed incurred corresponding to the proceeds of the swap."

The central banks of Portugal, Finland, and the ECB itself, then all confirmed (in writing) the Philippine's treatment of gold swaps to Hepburn.

Hepburn's latest investigative work reveals the Bank of Italy changing their accounting procedures in October of 1999 to accommodate the IMF's devious scheming. Andrew Hepburn just reported in with the following:

I had been under the impression that Italy was very pro-gold and that none of their reserve had been lent/swapped out. I can now state with a fair degree of certainty that they are indeed "managing" their reserve. A few days ago I emailed the Bank of Italy and inquired as to whether or not they had swapped, lent or otherwise transferred any of their gold to investment banks or other central banks. Today I received I response which did not answer my question but instead pointed me to a publication on their website entitled "Monetary and Credit Aggregates of the Euro Area: the Italian Components".

Unfortunately, the way the site works is that there are no separate URL's so I can only give the directions for getting to the report that I'm about to focus on. To quote the email I received "...you can find the data you requested on http://www.bancaditalia.it
under the item Publications\Statistics\Supplements to the Statistical Bulletin\ Money and credit aggregates of the euro area: the Italian components in table 1 in the column "Gold and gold receivables".

The name of the column, "Gold and Gold receivables" indicates that at least part of the reserve represents only a paper claim on gold-i.e. not all the gold is in the vaults of the Bank of Italy.

The next interesting piece of information is found in the notes/definitions section of the report. On page 45, S034162M, which apparently is the code for an account, reads in the following manner:

"S034162M – CENTRAL BANK: ASSETS – GOLD AND GOLD RECEIVABLES
Comprises the gold owned by the Bank of Italy and receivables in respect of deposits denominated in gold and swaps."

The above essentially confirms that the Bank of Italy is active in the swaps/deposit market. The next excerpt of note is found on page 48 of the report. They state that:

"In October 1999, as part of the harmonization of the Eurosystem statistics, the accounting treatment of the Bank of Italy's official swaps (in gold and dollars) with the EMI between September 1997 and June 1998 and with the ECB from July to December 1998 was modified. The main change was the switch from stating gold assets net of official swaps to stating them gross of such transactions."

A few things are of interest here. First, they admit to doing gold swaps. Second and much more importantly in October, 1999 the ECB adopted the collateralized loan approach to accounting for gold swaps. This is the same treatment that the IMF denied it ever recommended but we know to be the case. Under this treatment swapped gold remains as a reserve asset even though the ownership has changed and the gold has left the vault. Furthermore, this accounting change went into effect around the time of the Washington Agreement. If I remember correctly, the WA only curtailed sales and lending; it said nothing about swaps. Because of the new treatment it is very possible that gold swaps have increased significantly since late 1999.

The term "official swaps" is in reference to swaps with the EMI and ECB. I'm unsure as to the level of swaps with the EMI but I believe around 15% of the ECB's reserves are in gold which means that Italy transferred at least 450 tonnes in that swap arrangement.
On page 51 in the "Methodological Index", the following is said when explaining an account code:

S003675M – AVERAGE LIQUIDITY DATA – NET ASSETS IN GOLD AND FOREIGN CURRENCY
Net gold and foreign currency claims on non-euro-area residents.

Unfortunately, they do not specify how much of the claims are on gold and how much on foreign currency. What is interesting, however, is that the Bank of Italy apparently has a gold claim on a non-euro-area country. It would be very interesting to see if Italy has a gold swap with the BIS, the IMF or even the U.S.

Andrew

What Andrew has uncovered ought to be one of the most important findings ever for the gold industry. The BIS and GFMS (generally accepted gold industry statistician) state that central bank gold loans are around 5,000 tonnes. Neither mentions anything about what the total amount of gold "swapped out" of the central banks might be.

GATA suggests that amount is significant. So significant that we believe the total amount of central bank gold that has been lent/swapped is closer to 15,000 tonnes, not 5,000 tonnes.

The difference between the two numbers has staggering ramifications for all gold market participants and investors. GATA believes that if the "truth" were known, the price of gold would have to more than double to ration the "true" supply of gold left to satisfy demand.

This is just what The Gold Cartel does not want the investment world or general public to know. That is why they have stifled GATA's discoveries and refuse to allow our startling findings to be presented in the mainstream U.S. press.

GATA has caught The Gold Cartel and the IMF doing something that is very wrong. To allow them to continue to get away with this sham is even more wrong!

The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee and our Army of supporters ask the gold industry to examine the facts and help us fight to expose the "truth."

Who could be against that?

Bill Murphy
Chairman
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

The direction the IMF, Brown, and Manuel are trying to take the world in as far as the poor in sub-Saharan Africa is concerned is disingenuous. If it were not for these folks and The Gold Cartel, the price of gold would be FAR higher and there would be substantially more funds available to help the poor.

More importantly, there would be hope, which there is little of in the black communities right now. I will never forget what my South African black cab driver chauffeur friend told me during my tour of the country. "Bill, he said, "these kids have no hope. They get into trouble because they have no future. They have unprotected sex (and contract AIDS) far too early because there is nothing else for them on the horizon."

Wild-eyed diatribe on my part as far as what is wrong and what could be in South Africa? Not at all. We need only refer to Midas commentary this summer about the Russians, who know what GATA knows:

THEN, in a stunning development, Oleg V. Mozhayskov, Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank of Russia, bluntly brought GATA to the attention of the mainstream gold world, which I am sure had most of them gagging. Mozhayskov delivered the keynote address at the London Bullion Dealers Conference in Moscow on June 4th 2004. His speech was delivered in Russian. The only words he mentioned in English were Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (or GATA)…..

Here is a quote from this remarkable speech in which this Russian banking bureaucrat lashes out against the US for its economic policies:

"This dualism in gold price formation distinguishes it from other commodities and makes the movements in the price sometimes so enigmatic that market analysts need to invent fantastic intrigues to explain price dynamics. Many have heard of the group of economists who came together in the society known as the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee and started a number of lawsuits against the U.S. government, accusing it of organising an anti-gold conspiracy. They believe that with the assistance of a number of major financial institutions (they mention in particular the Bank for International Settlements, J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, and others), some senior officials have been manipulating the market since 1994. As a result, the price dropped below US$300 an ounce at a time when it should, if it had kept pace with inflation, reached US$740-760."

-END-

That’s right…$750 gold if it were not for The Gold Cartel.

This is what an industry organization like the World Gold Council should be in a rage over. Instead, they say and do nothing, this useless group. Something must be done about this. GATA has that some thing in mind. Stay tuned.

MIDAS

Bravo Jürgen, schliese mich deiner Meinung an.

Bin gerade zufällig hier reingeraten, aber echt ätzend.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://g.fool.co.uk/art/logos/01c.gif]

COMMENT
Gold: A Poor Long-Term Investment


By David Kuo (TMFDragon)
January 18, 2005

Exactly twenty five years ago today gold hit its historic high of $835 an ounce. Today, it is worth around half that, just $421 an ounce.

It is reckoned that the surge in the price of gold in 1980 could be one of the most spectacular moves in commodity prices ever. Within a period of 12 months, the price of gold almost quadrupled from $225 to $850.

The appeal in gold at that time was largely fuelled by runaway inflation. Sky-high interest rates were put in place to stem surging consumer prices. In the UK, for example, base rates rose from an already painful 14% to an excruciating 17%. Stock markets around the world were weak, and gold was thought to be the best investment around.

However, the popularity of gold quickly evaporated after it reached its all-time high. Within two years it had fallen back to around $400, a level that it has largely remained at in the two and a half decades since.

Unlike other metals, gold only has limited applications. It is used in the manufacture of coins such as krugerrands. Gold is also used in the manufacture of certain electronics components where its remarkable resistance to corrosion is unparalleled. It is also used in dentistry and in the manufacture of some invasive medical devices. Recently, gold has also been found to be handy in the burgeoning nanotechnology sector.

However, the biggest use of gold is in the production of jewellery. This absorbs almost 65% of the world's gold supply, with consumers buying gold trinkets both as adornments and also as a store of wealth. This latter reason for buying gold tends to be more prevalent in the East, where jewellery is priced according to its weight in gold shops.

There is little doubt that gold will remain in demand. However, demand is likely to be dictated by consumer requirement for jewellery.

Whether gold deserves to be included in an investment portfolio is an interesting question. Some investors view it as a useful diversifier for their portfolios because gold is said to move in the opposite direction to shares. In my view, gold may appeal to those investors who want to introduce some stability into their portfolios. However, the price of that stability could be lower returns if gold's lacklustre long-term performance continues.
http://www.fool.co.uk/news/com…050118b.htm?ref=foolwatch

Heute vor 25 Jahren hat Gold mit 835 $ je Unze sein Allzeithoch erreicht.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au1980.gif]

Ich habe den Eindruck, dass es heute eine Abkoppelung der Silber-/Goldkurse vom Dollar gab. Der Dollar ist stärker geworden und der Gold-/Silberkurs ist leicht gestiegen.

Zitat

Original von Jürgen

EGO ist guuuuuuut

Hallo Jürgen,

Teamfähigkeit und Toleranz für andere Meinungen und Interessen wären es auch.

Wenn mehrheitlich kein Interesse mehr an den Texten aus dem Le Metropole bestehen sollte (wofür momentan wenig spricht) können die Texte auch jederzeit weggelassen werden.

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

January 18 – Gold $422.50 up 50 cents – Silver $6.62 up 4 cents

Gold, Silver And The Shares Appear To Have Bottomed

In a pond, koi can reach lengths of eighteen inches. Amazingly, when placed in a lake, koi can grow to three feet long. The metaphor is obvious. You are limited by how you see the world. -Vince Poscente, Olympian (1961- )

GO GATA!!!

When gold crashed down to the $430+ level after GLD sold 15 tonnes of gold, I thought that was it. The Gold Cartel tested pivotal support in that area three or four times. Gold composed itself and turned north, reaching $445. As it turns out the cabal forces were only warming up for their next assault, ignoring dollar weakness and just about every thing else.

Even longer term support was obliterated at $420. During this blatant cartel mugging the specs have run for the hill, while cabal forces have used the opportunity to extensively cover short positions put on at much higher prices. As a result, the technical posture of the market has firmed up considerably. At the same time the cash market is stout as can be. Swiss refineries continue to go all out.

To really return to its long-term bull trend and winning ways, gold still must clear and close above $430.

Feb gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/25

The gold open interest fell 2264 contacts to 276,708.

Got one potentially substantial positive to direct your way. The euro gold price has acted very well of late and is making some noise to the upside. It made a low of 318.50 when dollar gold took out $420, yet closed today at 324.70. There is no reason gold should not begin to move higher in all currencies as other developments other than dollar weakness begin to be factored into the market by investors around the world.

The dollar closed up .33 to 83.46 and the euro fell .64 to 130.39. The yen remains on the strong side at 102.28.

Don’t know what to say about silver. $6.50 seems to be Rock of Gibraltar support. However, just when you think you have silver figured out, it goes off on the deep end.

The silver open interest rose 706 contracts to 98,502.

March copper closed at $1.4015. Talk about whacko markets. It soars, then collapses. Then it soars and collapses. Still, like gold it continues to make higher highs and lower lows.

March copper
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CP/35

Feb crude oil was all over the place, soaring to $49.50, then swooning to $47.70. Exhausted, Feb WTI settled unchanged at $48.38.

The CRB remains on the steady side, closing at 283.57, up .59. If it were not for the moribund grain/oilseed group, it might have made new highs by now. See that in the cards anyway before spring.

The John Brimelow Report

Spectacular physical demand AND Comex liquidation

Tuesday, January 18 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums:

Monday- AM $9.10, PM $8.41, with world gold at $421.35 and $422.45. Lavish for legal imports.

Tuesday- AM $8.12, PM $$7.56, with world gold at $422.20 and $422.35. Ample for legal imports.

Gold and the rupee were relatively volatile during Indian business hours today: gold mainly weaker and the rupee mainly stronger.

Reuters carries an unusual story today from the Jewelry Conference going on in Italy: Indians dealers expressing surprise at the strength of their market’s demand.

"VICENZA, Italy, Jan 18 (Reuters) -- Gold jewellery demand for India's current wedding season is up around five percent on the year-earlier period, with customers embracing rising gold prices as an enhancement to the metal's investment value…."The orders for the current wedding season are good," said P.K. Jain of Mumbai-based Diastar Jewellery Limited…Current orders represent a comeback from the same period last year, when orders sank between 20 and 30 percent as customers were sceptical of higher bullion prices."

Clearly, this is the classical Venerosian wealth effect at work.

The strength of the yen on Monday brought yen gold below 1400/g on the active contract and reportedly triggered stop loss selling. Yen gold closed at a 5-month low. There was a modest recovery today. Net, open interest fell 1,185 Comex equivalent, but according to the Mitsubishi data the liquidation was more significant: 10.9 tonnes or 3,504 Comex contracts. (NY on Friday traded 37,434 contracts in the shortened session; open interest slipped 2,264 lots to 276,708.)

Observers seem quite shocked by the scale of the Comex liquidation: UBS says

" Friday’s COTR report confirmed our view that large-scale speculative long liquidation took place in the week ending Tuesday 11th January although the size of the decline exceeded our best guesses…positions fell …to leave the net long position at 10.8Moz against our expectations of about 12.25Moz. The last time the speculative net long position was at these levels was on 10 August 2004… the sell-off in gold has gone far enough and we expect gold to rally, both in euro and US dollar terms."

JB

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The bulls are having at it again. The DOW gained 71 to 10,629 and the DOG leaped 18 to 2106. Earnings expectations are running high.

US economic news:

08:29 Jan. Empire Manufacturing reported 20.08 vs. consensus 25
Prior reading revised to 27.07 from 29.93.
* * * * *

9:01 US Treasury reports November net capital inflows of $81.0B vs $48.3B in Oct
Inflows were the highest since the $81.1B reported in June 2004. The dollar is rallying on the stronger than expected figure: $1.3040 vs the euro, an improvement from $1.3070 prior to the report.