Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

More anecdotal proof of the foolishness of GATA critic Dennis Gartman’s comment:

"Conspiracies rarely exist"....Dennis Gartman, September 2004

Nine Ahold Vendors Charged With Conspiracy, U.S. Says

Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Nine vendors for a U.S. unit of Royal Ahold NV, the world's fourth-largest retailer, were charged in connection with a scheme that allowed company executives to inflate earnings by more than $800 million, federal prosecutors said.

The vendors conspired to create false accounting records for the unit, U.S. Foodservice, U.S. Attorney David Kelley in Manhattan said in a statement today. The false records enabled the executives to conceal their scheme to inflate company earnings, he said.

-END-

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- First Silver Reserve
Inc. (FSR on the Toronto Stock Exchange) today
announced that the company has recently purchased
another 100,000 ounces of silver at a price below the
current spot price of silver.

This silver was purchased using a portion of the
company's cash assets.

First Silver has now acquired a total of 200,000 ounces
of silver (equivalent to approximately 10 percent of
annual mine production). This silver is not available to
be loaned.

This purchase followed the decision by the company in
early 2004 to investigate the acquisition of silver to
capture upside in silver prices in addition to profits
realized from silver production.

First Silver Reserve is a company focused on the
production and exploration of precious metals in Mexico.
First Silver owns and operates the San Martin Mine in
Jalisco State, Mexico.

Quelle: Metropole Cafe

Anstatt das Geld in Cash zu halten, hat First Silver Reserve erneut 100 Tsd. Unzen Silber zur Erhöhung des Silberkurses gekauft und hält nun 200 Tsd. Unzen physisches Silber.

Rarely does a day or week go by without reports of some kind of economically related conspiracy or another surfacing.

The performance of so many gold and silver shares has been so lousy for so long it is nice to be able to report some constructive news. Staunch GATA supporter Aflease (50 cents) has been on a roll of late. It went through some tough times; yet, under the stewardship of its new CEO it has turned around. This was sent to us this morning by Chris Hall of Trinity Holdings (Pty) Ltd in South Africa:

Hi Bill,
South African Gold and Uranium junior, Aflease (AFKDY) has jumped 57% from (32c – about 50c) since Monday. Randgold had previously been heavy sellers, effectively capping the price since September, due their internal liquidity requirements. They finally offloaded the last of their stake in Aflease to Sprott Asset Management and Eastbourne Capital, both of whom were already significant shareholders.

Below is an article from South African daily, Business Day (today, 13 Jan).

Aflease up on foreign interest in uranium

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Chief Reporter

AS EXPERTS warned yesterday of a global shortage of uranium, South African uranium producer Afrikander Lease (Aflease) closed 17,4% higher on the JSE Securities Exchange SA thanks to Canada's Sprott Asset Management snapping up 10% of the company.

Last year, Aflease said it was sitting on 5% of the world's uranium assets, which it intended to mine, prompting foreigners to buy up its stock. The share is now three-quarters held by overseas investors.

Speaking from London, Aflease CEO Neal Froneman said the company planned to split its gold and uranium assets, forming a new and separate entity that would list on the JSE within a year.

The spike in Aflease's share price — up 42% since Monday — came as consultancy International Nuclear warned that uranium demand could outstrip supply from next year as China, India and Russia built reactors. Uranium prices have vaulted 74% in the past two years as stockpiles dwindled. About 16% of the world's electricity is generated using uranium.

Froneman said Aflease planned to start mining uranium at the end of next year, at a break-even cost of $14/lb. At its current boom price, uranium for long-term contracts is selling at about $25/lb.

The Sprott deal underlined "phenomenal interest in the stock" from foreigners, Froneman said. "A number of the larger funds in London have requested big blocks of shares of Aflease," he said.

But there are obstacles, as Aflease needs to raise $50m-$100m to get its first-phase uranium operation off the ground by December next year. Froneman said "raising this money won't be a problem" in light of the possible separate listing and support from foreign investors.

Business Day

P.S. In November Peter George published a report to his subscribers at http://www.investmentindicators.com/ valuing Aflease presently at 90c, but looking for $2.30 by the end of 2005. Anyone who took his advice then (with AFKDY at 32c) would already have a big smile.

Kind regards
Chris

GATA supporter, Peter George of Cape Town, South Africa wrote two pieces, one mentioned by Chris Hall, which can be found in the Café Library:

6/27/04
Energy Unlimited - Aflease and Uranium

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com…=3997&SearchParam=Aflease

11/01/04
Nuclear Revolution -in the making

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com…=4192&SearchParam=Aflease

Then there was this MIDAS commentary re Aflease last October for your review:

Last night I had a lovely dinner at the Petroleum Club here in Dallas with my friends Charles Pace, his pretty and brainy girl friend Kate, Ray Foster, and Neal Foneman, CEO of Aflease in South Africa. Neal was impressive and seems like the right man to turn this beleaguered company around. It has been beset with investor/management turmoil, skyrocketing energy costs, and much higher rand affiliated costs. Recently, they shut down some gold operations which were causing a cash flow drain and have restructured the company to concentrate on their strengths:

*A world class Uranium resource.

*Expediting production from their high margin gold properties and going into production in Q2 2005.

Other South African gold producers have been beset with similar problems. Durban Deep is an obvious one. When gold takes off, the South African gold producers that have been beaten up are likely to roar. Few in the gold world envision bullion trading at $500. It will. As gold takes off for that kind of price level, the cost problems besetting these companies will fade in the background and their share prices will explode.

To read more on Aflease (35 cents on the Nasdaq pink sheets), go to http://www.aflease.com.

There is another enormous positive about this company. It is surrounded with some of the brightest and most able people in the gold industry. They are also some of my favorite people anywhere:

*Brett Kebble, GATA’s hero, who rescued Aflease via a bailout through Randgold Resources.

*Peter George, the Mr. Gold of South Africa, and a veteran, staunch GATA supporter. Peter is a substantial investor in the company.

*Ferdi Lips, ex-Swiss banker of note, who wrote Gold Wars, and has had an exemplary career in and around the gold industry from his native Zurich. Ferdi is a Director.

I own Aflease and will be buying more in the near future.

One of the most enjoyable aspects of my tenure as GATA chairman the past 6 years has been the people I’ve met and how many are intertwined. Neal met with J-Pacific CEO Nick Ferris in Vancouver before coming to Dallas and also with one of my heroes, the ubiquitous John Anderson. Japan’s legendary Tammy Matsufugi (who has one of the only gold funds in Japan and is another GATA supporter) is a significant investor in both J-Pacific and Aflease. Then there is GATA favorite Adam Fleming, former Harmony chairman, whom Neal worked with years ago at Harmony. All in all, a wonderful group of people.

-END-

Interest in the gold shares remains abysmal. The XAU gave up .90 to 94.52 and the HUI lost 1.52 to 204.25.

When it comes to gold, the most anyone can ever talk about is the price rising because the dollar is going to weaken. Not only is this simplistic, it misses the heart of the matter. The Gold Cartel has used the dollar's weakness to control the gold price advance. This became clear when they bombed bullion in December, even as the dollar barely budged on the upside.

At some point this year, gold is going to take off in all currencies as it becomes the go-to investment of choice around the world. The gold price will rise sharply as The Gold Cartel loses control of their heinous rigging scam. That time might not be far off.

In December, during the price decline debacle, I posited the cabal forces were bombing gold in outrageously blatant fashion because they fear what lied ahead in January. Well, we are here. Yesterday, the news for the dollar ($60+ billion trade deficit) was beyond terrible. Today the stock market broke down. Meanwhile, if the news in Iraq has not been bad enough, one of the directors of the Baghdad Election Center was killed today.

The US Government has little wiggle room anywhere. We have promised to get our financial house in order and said we would do so. But how? As little room as the Bush Administration has, the US consumer might have less as they are strapped to the hilt with debt and latest reports suggest they may becoming tentative on further spending. Their spending fuels 75% of the US economy. If they slow down, the economy slows down.

What no one outside the GATA camp deals with is half the central bank gold is not there any more. It is gone. Never in history has there been anything like the gold short position which is in play at the moment. If our financial markets become a bit unglued, or the dollar craters due to it becoming apparent the US is in a bind, there is no telling what could kick in on the gold derivatives front. I have been looking for a gold derivatives neutron bomb to go off for some time. The Gold Cartel prevented this from happening to-date, continuing to take pre-emptive measures in this regard. There is nothing in the near term which suggests we are close to that bomb going off. However, recent developments put this possibility back on the burner.

The gold price should reflect increasing geopolitical/financial market concerns VERY soon.

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!

MIDAS

Goldangebot und –nachfrage 2004

Goldangebot
Minenproduktion um 110 Tonnen = 4% gesunken, hauptsächlich aus vorübergehenden Gründen
Angebot aus Offiziellem Sektor soll um 19% gefallen sein auf unter 500 Tonnen
Altgoldangebot um 18% gefallen auf 829 Tonnen
Angebot aus Deinvestments 40 Tonnen

Goldnachfrage
Schmucknachfrage um 4% gestiegen
Abbau von Produzenten-Hedgepositionen um 52% auf 400 Tonnen gestiegen
Horten von Barren um ein Drittel auf 245 Tonnen gestiegen

London, 13th January 2005

Statistical Highlights:
Supply

Mine production fell by just over 110 tonnes or 4% in 2004, its largest annual decline since the 1940s. Much was due to temporary factors which hit such countries as Indonesia or Australia. Weak domestic gold prices, however, were more signi.cant for South Africa. A recovery from these temporary matters is forecast to help lift global output in .rst half 2005 by almost 7%. Currency effects, higher energy charges and lower output largely explained the 13% rise in January-September cash costs to almost $250/oz. South Africa saw some of the largest gains though US and Australian costs also rose substantially.

Net official sector sales are estimated to have fallen by 19% to just under 500 tonnes in 2004. This was largely due to low sales in the .rst three quarters by CBGA signatories, though there were signi.cant purchases outside the Agreement. Net sales are forecast at just under 250 tonnes in .rst half 2005, up nearly a quarter on the unusually low .gure for .rst half 2004.

Despite the 13% price rise, old gold scrap is estimated to have fallen by over 12% to 829 tonnes. This apparent mismatch is chie.y explained by growing acceptance of prices over $400 and by currency stabilisation in Egypt. On the assumption that prices continue strong, scrap is forecast to rise by 4% in .rst half 2005.

Heavy liquidation during the first half of 2004 of longs built up in late 2003 generated implied net disinvestment of over 110 tonnes in that period. The second half, however, saw a fair recovery in interest, cutting full year disinvestment to just over 40 tonnes, though this was still in sharp contrast to 2003’s investment of over 650 tonnes. The .rst half of 2005 is expected to see a continuation to this recovery with implied net investment reaching 175 tonnes.

Demand

Jewellery fabrication rose by 4% in 2004 in spite of the price rise as a result of an acceleration in global GDP growth and greater accustomisation to higher prices. Much of the increase occurred in India, Turkey and China whilst signi.cant losses were again seen for Italy. The global year-on-year comparison though is .attered by the absence of events as acute as 2003’s SARS or the of.cial Iraq war. This and a further forecast price rise form much of the reasoning behind the forecast 6% fall for jewellery in .rst half 2005. Other fabrication saw a more buoyant 8% rise in 2004, largely thanks to strength in the electronics sector.

Net producer de-hedging is estimated to have seen a jump of 52% to comfortably over 400 tonnes, primarily through delivery into existing positions though buy backs were still signi.cant. De-hedging is forecast to retreat noticeably in .rst half 2005, largely as a result of higher prices and a shrinking number of hedged producers, not as hedging has come back into fashion.

Bar hoarding rose by over a third in 2004 to 245 tonnes, chie.y due to gains in East Asia. This plus higher coin fabrication (up 7%) meant world investment (the sum of bar hoarding, coin demand and implied net (dis)investment) stayed positive at 314 tonnes but was still heavily down on 2003’s .gure of well over 900 tonnes. The second half of 2004 saw much higher world investment than the .rst and a further recovery for all its components is forecast to continue into first half 2005.

Minenproduktion 2004 2478 Tonnen. Produktion in 6 der 8 größten Produzentenländer fiel, mit Ausnahme China (+7 Tonnen ) und Peru (gleichbleibend bei 172 t ). Größte Abnahme in Indonesien (-51 t ) wg. Schwierigkeiten mit Grasberg. Südafrika – 32 t wg. Rand. USA – 14t wg. Wetterbedingungen, Kanada – 11 t wg Schließung von Miramar´s Con und Giant Minen, ferner Wartungsarbeiten und niedrigerer Grade.

2005 wird wieder Anstieg erwartet (Wetterbedingungen fallen weg und neue Minen wie Newcrests Telfer Mine und Barricks Alto Chicama Peruoperation)

Welt Cashkosten um 12% auf 250 USD/Unze gestiegen (Energiekosten und schwacher US-Dollar). Südafrika teuerster Platz mit 349 USD/Unze (+16%).

Gold production in 2004 declined by 114 tonnes, the greatest annual fall in tonnage terms since World War II

In its latest report on the global gold market, GFMS estimated full year mine production in 2004 at 2,478 tonnes, a 114 tonne or 4% year-on-year decline. The decline – which is the greatest since the early 1940s – was mainly due to temporary factors. Bruce Alway, senior analyst with the precious metals consultancy commented, “gold production was affected by development activities at several mines, the impact of the Grasberg pit wall failure and by poor weather in the .rst quarter of the year.”

Production in six of the world’s top eight producing countries fell during the year, with only China’s output increasing (up 7 tonnes), whilst production in Peru remained steady at 172 tonnes. The greatest single fall was in Indonesia (down 51 tonnes), where output fell as a result of the impact of the 2003 pit wall failure at the Grasberg mine. Elsewhere the effect of the strong rand has caused South African producers to cut back production in marginal areas with production falling by 32 tonnes as a result. Meanwhile in North America, output fell in both Canada and the United States (down 11 tonnes and 14 tonnes respectively). The fall in US production was primarily due to poor weather conditions in the .rst quarter, and also by development work at several mines. Canadian production was hit by mine closures including Miramar’s Con and Giant mines. In addition maintenance work and lower grades contributed to the fall.

Commenting on the outlook for 2005, Alway said, “the non weather temporary factors which affected gold output in 2004 are expected to cease in 2005, and this combined with output from new mines will see production rise to a forecast 2,558 tonnes in 2005.” Several mines that started operations in 2004 will ramp up to full production during 2005, including Newcrest’s Telfer mine (opened in Q4 2004) which will contribute almost 25 tonnes per annum at full production. This output will be complemented by production from projects such as Barrick’s Alto Chicama operation in Peru and other mines which will start in 2005.

World cash costs rose 12% year-on-year to $250/oz, due to higher energy costs and the weakness of the US dollar. South Africa remained the most expensive place to produce gold with average cash costs rising 16% to $349/oz. Canada bucked the trend, seeing cash costs fall 1% mainly due to its mines bene.ting from higher credits generated from the production of by-product metals.

© Copyright GFMS Limited - January 2005.
http://www.gfms.co.uk/media_centre_press_releases.htm

Der Silber Eagle-Verkauf hatte in 2004 das drittbeste Jahr, seitdem das Programm aufgelegt wurde:

http://www.silverinstitute.org/news/pr11jan05.html

Insgesamt wurden 9,6 Mio. Unzen verkauft, davon alleine 2,6 Mio. Unzen im Dezember (!!) 2004 !

Ist der Dezember-Verkauf immer so stark oder ist die physische Nachfrage nach Silber Eagle tatsächlich im Dezember stark angestiegen ? Wie auch immer, jedenfalls wird die physische Nachfrage nach Silber erhöht !

... und zwischendurch auch wieder mal ein Wort des Dankes an Schwabenpfeil

midas  Schwabenpfeil
SCHLIESSE MICH DEM DANK AN!
Die täglichen Lemetropole-Infos sind immer sehr wertvoll!
Keep the spirit
Pauli

Danke Schwabenpfeil

Sehr interessant ist die aktuelle Situation im Cot-Report Dow Jones:

http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/cot.htm

Wir haben inzwischen eine sehr außergewöhnliche Situation erreicht, wo das Volumen der Commercials / Trader deutlich (!!) über die bisherigen Höchststände hinausgeht.

Dies deutet alles auf eine deutliche Trendwende (in diesem Fall fallende Kurse !) hin.

@ midas, pauli, ageka: Schön, dass Ihr auch die Texte aus dem Le Metropole schätzt und sie auch Euch Nutzen bringen ...

Heute geht es nach einem verlängerten Wochenende frisch gestärkt weiter !

Gruß
Schwabenpfeil

January 14 – Gold $422 down $2.20 – Silver $6.56 down 14 cents

A Very Fishy Day

Men go fishing all of their lives without knowing that it is not fish they are after...Henry David Thoreau

GO GATA!

Early last evening I was minding my own business at my desk/computer when I noticed the dollar starting to rally sharply and gold starting to descend. I wondered what was happening. Answer:

Dollar Rises as Fed's Poole Suggests Accelerated Rate Increases
Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) --

The dollar rose almost a cent against the euro, the most in a week, after a Federal Reserve official suggested U.S. policy makers may accelerate the pace of interest-rate increases, widening a gap with the euro region.

The Fed may drop its plan to lift rates at a ``measured' pace, language used through five quarter-point increases last year, St. Louis Fed bank President William Poole said late yesterday. The dollar extended gains after European Central Bank council member Axel Weber said higher U.S. rates and faster U.S. growth compared with the euro region may support the currency…..

The dollar also rose after President George W. Bush said inan interview with USA Today the U.S. has a ``strong dollarpolicy'' and will act to reduce its budget and trade deficits.

``The world is watching this administration to see whether or not we're willing to take on the deficits and we'll show that willingness,'' Bush said, according to a transcript of the interview posted on the newspaper's Web site late yesterday....

-END-

La La Land rules the day again. Or more specifically, jawboning does the trick. Yesterday the stock market acted as if it was about to really break down. The next thing you know a Fed Governor is out talking up the economy and the dollar. Earlier in the week another Fed Governor said the same thing and it had no effect on the markets. The difference was The Working Group on Financial Markets was on the sidelines during the earlier comments.

There is no other logical explanation for how the markets traded today:

*The euro fell 1.07 to 131.03, yet the yen rose 1/2% to 102.01. The dollar gained .56 to 83.13.

*If the comments were so bullish for the economy and dollar, why did the bonds only fall 1/8 to 113 14/32? They are not far off from making new highs, not lows. This does not jibe with what Poole says. (Yes the PPI was lower than expected, however that is "old" news, besides being very suspect.)

*The $60 billion dollar trade deficit has now been thrown out the window and deemed irrelevant by the market or the PPT. What mattered in the end was rhetoric and market manipulation.

*But, there is no inflation! Tell that to the oil buyers. Feb WTI closed at $48.38, up 34 cents. Only 18 months ago $43 oil was thought to be disastrous for the US economy. Then again, so what? In 1998, the trade deficit was $12 billion. Goldman Sachs projected the budget deficit would soar to $19 billion. The reaction back then to that prediction was one of disbelief – a number that high was thought to be very negative for our financial markets. Now $60 billion elicits yawns. PRICE ACTION MAKES MARKET COMMENTARY and the PPT knows it.

*So if fear of escalating interest rates spooked dollar shorts, why did it encourage stock investors? The DOW rose 52 to 10,558 and the DOG leaped 17 to 2087. Going on for years now, each time the US stock market is about to cave to the downside, it rallies back for one reason or another.

While the price-capping activity of The Gold Cartel has been a bit of a bummer, it is no time to go in the tank and walk away from our precious metals investments. After the kind of recent orchestrated drubbing gold took from the cabal, the gold market historically takes WEEKS to recover. Thus what we are seeing now is normal, frustrating market action. Pile on top of that the huge amount of specs who were flushed out and the composure period could be prolonged even further than normal.

The COT report was a beauty and right in line with my high expectations. The large specs reduced their longs by 30,974 and increased their shorts by 5,482, while the commercials increased their longs by 5,132 and reduced their shorts by 30,263. This means the commercials have reduced their net short position by around 70,000 contracts in two weeks. The orchestrated raid by The Gold Cartel to allow the crooks to dramatically reduce their shorts has worked to perfection.

The silver stocks fell 606,321 ounces to 102,658,698. Good news. Getting below 100 million ounces not far off.

Not MIDAS talking here, but a fellow Café member:

Bill,
This action today is so typical – I’ve seen this umpteen times – all in the last 30 minutes of COMEX. And particularly when there are looming holidays and thin market conditions. They use Loonie (USDCAD) as the ring in the nose of the bull in an attempt to move all the USD pairs along with it and take the metals down for the close. Then after Comex closes Loonie collapses – all designed to get margin selling in the next time zone.
Today the Loonie action was timed to perfection to halt also an upward break in the EURO from 1.3130 that would have taken us up significantly for sure.There is no doubt that this currency action along with similar manipulation in gold is Snow’s so called "strong dollar policy".
Regds
Dave

The John Brimelow Report

India positive; Gartman - e.g. Hedge funds - negative

Friday, January 14, 2005

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $7.74, PM $8.08, with world gold at $423.10 and $421.80. High: ample for legal imports.

Reuters reports that Indian auto sales in December were 20.6% above ’03, "utility vehicles" (underpowered autos) were up 40.7% and motor cycles up 51.62%. This bias towards down market growth probably explains the relative dynamism of the domestic silver market, which as noted yesterday, justified air shipments of silver imports last week for the first time in many years.

According to Mitsubishi, the Japanese public increased their long today by another 3 tonnes - 964 Comex lots. This may be related to TOCOM gold making a 4 month low today, the Japanese being notable bottom fishers. Volume jumped 103% to the equivalent of 28,537 Comex lots and open interest rose by 606 Comex lot equivalent. (NY yesterday traded 42,197 lots; open interest rose another 394 lots.)

The Gartman Letter, having muttered yesterday about going long at $410 (e.g. appreciably higher than the previous target) has been refreshed in its bearishness:

"What is interesting is that even as the commodity prices are up materially, precious metals are not…GATA will blame that failure upon collusion amongst the bullion banks and the governments; we'll blame upon a lack of buyers and a stronger US dollar."

Asserting that there are a lack of gold buyers, of course, is simply wrong – Turkey’s December imports, before the latest decline, being the most recent official quantification – but taken as an insight into the sentiment (and hopes) of certain US Hedge funds, this remark probably explains much of recent behavior in gold, especially in NY hours.

JB