Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

  • "It can work to undermine the reserve status of the dollar and that has big implications globally," he said, adding the euro was being considered as a reserve currency of the future.


    The HSBC officials spoke at a press briefing.


    The bank predicts the euro will strengthen to $1.40 by the end of 2005 from around $1.32 on Thursday. HSBC expects the dollar to weaken to 98 yen by the end of the year from 102.70 now.


    U.S. policymakers have pressed China to relax its controls on the yuan, arguing it is under valued and gives China's exporters an unfair advantage in world markets.


    The view was repeated earlier on Thursday by U.S. Commerce Secretary Don Evans, in an interview with Reuters.


    But King said China comprised less than a tenth of the dollar's trade weighted basket.


    "So let's say that the renminbi will revalue by 20 percent, that would mean a fall in the dollar's trade-weighted exchange rate of only 2 percent," he said, noting the trade deficit had widened in the past two years despite a 20 percent fall in the dollar on a trade weighted basis.


    "The current account deficit exists primarily because of the lack of U.S. savings and that needs to be addressed," he said.


    The U.S. personal savings rate -- or proportion of money U.S. workers save from disposable incomes -- has been falling for the past two decades. The slide has been particularly severe since 1995, with it falling from about 6 percent to near zero now.


    Some analysts say the demand from Asian central banks to park their dollar surpluses in U.S. Treasuries has allowed Americans to spend despite the collapse in savings.


    Foreign holdings of Treasuries rose about $216 billion in 2004. Asian central banks increased foreign currency reserves last year by around $500 billion and parked much of it in U.S. debt.


    -END-

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

  • Therein lies the problem for the US. For the US saving rate to go up, spending must go down, which sets short-term recession forces in motion. It’s bad for Wall Street and bad for incumbent politicos. Yet, for the US not to address the growing deficit problems sets up a tsunami situation when, out of nowhere, markets collapse due to unforeseen events and trigger financial panic.


    As is, the US is in a pickle. Foreign creditors have made it clear they expect the US to get its financial house in order. This should mean decreasing government spending and/or raising taxes. This need to be done to reduce our budget deficit. Either step will set some brakes on economic expansion. Pile decreased consumer spending on top of that and you have a subdued economy, reduced corporate profits and lower stock prices.


    The alternative for the US is to stay the course. However, this means the dollar could really tank as foreigners not only stop buying our debt, they begin to pull out altogether. This would send interest rates through the roof and set off who knows what in the economy and financial markets.

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

  • Here is an unconventional outlook:


    Dollar on an oily slope
    By Jephraim P Gundzik


    The unabated rise of international oil prices and depreciation of the dollar will push economic growth in the US down to about 2.5% in 2005, but will have little impact on economic growth in the European Union, where growth is expected to accelerate modestly. Stronger economic fundamentals in the EU will support the continued impressive economic growth in non-Japan Asia.


    Full story
    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GA13Dj01.html


    ***

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

  • Gold Field Mineral Services, the gold industry consultancy, released a great deal of information today from their perspective. While some of their information is useful and helpful, they refuse to deal with the true gold loan swap numbers which results in their basic market analysis being very suspect in many regards. It skews their gold demand numbers among others.


    However, they made one point which we are in total agreement and it has to do with investment demand:


    Gold price seen to average $447 in 2005


    Johannesburg, South Africa
    January 13


    Despite the modest correction in the gold price, the first half of 2005 is expected to see renewed interest in the precious metal. Gold is forecast to average $447 a troy ounce in the six-month period, United Kingdom-based consultancy GFMS said in a report released on Thursday.


    However, GFMS said it isn't expecting gold to break through the 1988 high of $483,90/oz during the first half of 2005.


    GFMS said it sees investment demand as the prime driver of the expected renewed rally in gold, with the focus within this category continuing to shift to the longer-term, more fundamentally driven players.


    "Their rationale for interest in gold was ascribed to such economic factors as ongoing dollar weakness, the United States fiscal and current account deficits and low real interest rates," the GFMS report said.


    "We only need a small shift in the allocation of institutional funds to bring about a quite hefty rally in the price," GFMS analyst Bruce Alway stated…


    -END-

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

  • Then why is the World Gold Council spending millions of dollar promoting high fashion gold jewelry? The focus ought to be on promoting investment demand and pounding away at the myriads of reasons to buy gold at present price levels. Just more evidence of how useless the World Gold Council is. It ought to be disbanded for incompetence and gross neglect of the industry’s needs - except the jewelers of course, which want lower gold prices.

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

  • More anecdotal proof of the foolishness of GATA critic Dennis Gartman’s comment:


    "Conspiracies rarely exist"....Dennis Gartman, September 2004


    Nine Ahold Vendors Charged With Conspiracy, U.S. Says


    Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Nine vendors for a U.S. unit of Royal Ahold NV, the world's fourth-largest retailer, were charged in connection with a scheme that allowed company executives to inflate earnings by more than $800 million, federal prosecutors said.


    The vendors conspired to create false accounting records for the unit, U.S. Foodservice, U.S. Attorney David Kelley in Manhattan said in a statement today. The false records enabled the executives to conceal their scheme to inflate company earnings, he said.


    -END-

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

  • VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- First Silver Reserve
    Inc. (FSR on the Toronto Stock Exchange) today
    announced that the company has recently purchased
    another 100,000 ounces of silver at a price below the
    current spot price of silver.


    This silver was purchased using a portion of the
    company's cash assets.


    First Silver has now acquired a total of 200,000 ounces
    of silver (equivalent to approximately 10 percent of
    annual mine production). This silver is not available to
    be loaned.


    This purchase followed the decision by the company in
    early 2004 to investigate the acquisition of silver to
    capture upside in silver prices in addition to profits
    realized from silver production.


    First Silver Reserve is a company focused on the
    production and exploration of precious metals in Mexico.
    First Silver owns and operates the San Martin Mine in
    Jalisco State, Mexico.


    Quelle: Metropole Cafe


    Anstatt das Geld in Cash zu halten, hat First Silver Reserve erneut 100 Tsd. Unzen Silber zur Erhöhung des Silberkurses gekauft und hält nun 200 Tsd. Unzen physisches Silber.

  • Rarely does a day or week go by without reports of some kind of economically related conspiracy or another surfacing.


    The performance of so many gold and silver shares has been so lousy for so long it is nice to be able to report some constructive news. Staunch GATA supporter Aflease (50 cents) has been on a roll of late. It went through some tough times; yet, under the stewardship of its new CEO it has turned around. This was sent to us this morning by Chris Hall of Trinity Holdings (Pty) Ltd in South Africa:


    Hi Bill,
    South African Gold and Uranium junior, Aflease (AFKDY) has jumped 57% from (32c – about 50c) since Monday. Randgold had previously been heavy sellers, effectively capping the price since September, due their internal liquidity requirements. They finally offloaded the last of their stake in Aflease to Sprott Asset Management and Eastbourne Capital, both of whom were already significant shareholders.

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

  • Below is an article from South African daily, Business Day (today, 13 Jan).


    Aflease up on foreign interest in uranium




    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------



    Chief Reporter


    AS EXPERTS warned yesterday of a global shortage of uranium, South African uranium producer Afrikander Lease (Aflease) closed 17,4% higher on the JSE Securities Exchange SA thanks to Canada's Sprott Asset Management snapping up 10% of the company.


    Last year, Aflease said it was sitting on 5% of the world's uranium assets, which it intended to mine, prompting foreigners to buy up its stock. The share is now three-quarters held by overseas investors.


    Speaking from London, Aflease CEO Neal Froneman said the company planned to split its gold and uranium assets, forming a new and separate entity that would list on the JSE within a year.


    The spike in Aflease's share price — up 42% since Monday — came as consultancy International Nuclear warned that uranium demand could outstrip supply from next year as China, India and Russia built reactors. Uranium prices have vaulted 74% in the past two years as stockpiles dwindled. About 16% of the world's electricity is generated using uranium.


    Froneman said Aflease planned to start mining uranium at the end of next year, at a break-even cost of $14/lb. At its current boom price, uranium for long-term contracts is selling at about $25/lb.


    The Sprott deal underlined "phenomenal interest in the stock" from foreigners, Froneman said. "A number of the larger funds in London have requested big blocks of shares of Aflease," he said.


    But there are obstacles, as Aflease needs to raise $50m-$100m to get its first-phase uranium operation off the ground by December next year. Froneman said "raising this money won't be a problem" in light of the possible separate listing and support from foreign investors.

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

    Einmal editiert, zuletzt von Schwabenpfeil ()

  • Business Day


    P.S. In November Peter George published a report to his subscribers at http://www.investmentindicators.com/ valuing Aflease presently at 90c, but looking for $2.30 by the end of 2005. Anyone who took his advice then (with AFKDY at 32c) would already have a big smile.



    Kind regards
    Chris



    GATA supporter, Peter George of Cape Town, South Africa wrote two pieces, one mentioned by Chris Hall, which can be found in the Café Library:


    6/27/04
    Energy Unlimited - Aflease and Uranium


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com…=3997&SearchParam=Aflease


    11/01/04
    Nuclear Revolution -in the making


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com…=4192&SearchParam=Aflease

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

  • Then there was this MIDAS commentary re Aflease last October for your review:


    Last night I had a lovely dinner at the Petroleum Club here in Dallas with my friends Charles Pace, his pretty and brainy girl friend Kate, Ray Foster, and Neal Foneman, CEO of Aflease in South Africa. Neal was impressive and seems like the right man to turn this beleaguered company around. It has been beset with investor/management turmoil, skyrocketing energy costs, and much higher rand affiliated costs. Recently, they shut down some gold operations which were causing a cash flow drain and have restructured the company to concentrate on their strengths:


    *A world class Uranium resource.


    *Expediting production from their high margin gold properties and going into production in Q2 2005.


    Other South African gold producers have been beset with similar problems. Durban Deep is an obvious one. When gold takes off, the South African gold producers that have been beaten up are likely to roar. Few in the gold world envision bullion trading at $500. It will. As gold takes off for that kind of price level, the cost problems besetting these companies will fade in the background and their share prices will explode.


    To read more on Aflease (35 cents on the Nasdaq pink sheets), go to http://www.aflease.com.


    There is another enormous positive about this company. It is surrounded with some of the brightest and most able people in the gold industry. They are also some of my favorite people anywhere:


    *Brett Kebble, GATA’s hero, who rescued Aflease via a bailout through Randgold Resources.


    *Peter George, the Mr. Gold of South Africa, and a veteran, staunch GATA supporter. Peter is a substantial investor in the company.


    *Ferdi Lips, ex-Swiss banker of note, who wrote Gold Wars, and has had an exemplary career in and around the gold industry from his native Zurich. Ferdi is a Director.


    I own Aflease and will be buying more in the near future.


    One of the most enjoyable aspects of my tenure as GATA chairman the past 6 years has been the people I’ve met and how many are intertwined. Neal met with J-Pacific CEO Nick Ferris in Vancouver before coming to Dallas and also with one of my heroes, the ubiquitous John Anderson. Japan’s legendary Tammy Matsufugi (who has one of the only gold funds in Japan and is another GATA supporter) is a significant investor in both J-Pacific and Aflease. Then there is GATA favorite Adam Fleming, former Harmony chairman, whom Neal worked with years ago at Harmony. All in all, a wonderful group of people.


    -END-

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

  • Interest in the gold shares remains abysmal. The XAU gave up .90 to 94.52 and the HUI lost 1.52 to 204.25.


    When it comes to gold, the most anyone can ever talk about is the price rising because the dollar is going to weaken. Not only is this simplistic, it misses the heart of the matter. The Gold Cartel has used the dollar's weakness to control the gold price advance. This became clear when they bombed bullion in December, even as the dollar barely budged on the upside.


    At some point this year, gold is going to take off in all currencies as it becomes the go-to investment of choice around the world. The gold price will rise sharply as The Gold Cartel loses control of their heinous rigging scam. That time might not be far off.


    In December, during the price decline debacle, I posited the cabal forces were bombing gold in outrageously blatant fashion because they fear what lied ahead in January. Well, we are here. Yesterday, the news for the dollar ($60+ billion trade deficit) was beyond terrible. Today the stock market broke down. Meanwhile, if the news in Iraq has not been bad enough, one of the directors of the Baghdad Election Center was killed today.


    The US Government has little wiggle room anywhere. We have promised to get our financial house in order and said we would do so. But how? As little room as the Bush Administration has, the US consumer might have less as they are strapped to the hilt with debt and latest reports suggest they may becoming tentative on further spending. Their spending fuels 75% of the US economy. If they slow down, the economy slows down.


    What no one outside the GATA camp deals with is half the central bank gold is not there any more. It is gone. Never in history has there been anything like the gold short position which is in play at the moment. If our financial markets become a bit unglued, or the dollar craters due to it becoming apparent the US is in a bind, there is no telling what could kick in on the gold derivatives front. I have been looking for a gold derivatives neutron bomb to go off for some time. The Gold Cartel prevented this from happening to-date, continuing to take pre-emptive measures in this regard. There is nothing in the near term which suggests we are close to that bomb going off. However, recent developments put this possibility back on the burner.


    The gold price should reflect increasing geopolitical/financial market concerns VERY soon.


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


    MIDAS

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

    Einmal editiert, zuletzt von Schwabenpfeil ()

  • Goldangebot und –nachfrage 2004


    Goldangebot
    Minenproduktion um 110 Tonnen = 4% gesunken, hauptsächlich aus vorübergehenden Gründen
    Angebot aus Offiziellem Sektor soll um 19% gefallen sein auf unter 500 Tonnen
    Altgoldangebot um 18% gefallen auf 829 Tonnen
    Angebot aus Deinvestments 40 Tonnen


    Goldnachfrage
    Schmucknachfrage um 4% gestiegen
    Abbau von Produzenten-Hedgepositionen um 52% auf 400 Tonnen gestiegen
    Horten von Barren um ein Drittel auf 245 Tonnen gestiegen



    London, 13th January 2005


    Statistical Highlights:
    Supply


    Mine production fell by just over 110 tonnes or 4% in 2004, its largest annual decline since the 1940s. Much was due to temporary factors which hit such countries as Indonesia or Australia. Weak domestic gold prices, however, were more signi.cant for South Africa. A recovery from these temporary matters is forecast to help lift global output in .rst half 2005 by almost 7%. Currency effects, higher energy charges and lower output largely explained the 13% rise in January-September cash costs to almost $250/oz. South Africa saw some of the largest gains though US and Australian costs also rose substantially.


    Net official sector sales are estimated to have fallen by 19% to just under 500 tonnes in 2004. This was largely due to low sales in the .rst three quarters by CBGA signatories, though there were signi.cant purchases outside the Agreement. Net sales are forecast at just under 250 tonnes in .rst half 2005, up nearly a quarter on the unusually low .gure for .rst half 2004.


    Despite the 13% price rise, old gold scrap is estimated to have fallen by over 12% to 829 tonnes. This apparent mismatch is chie.y explained by growing acceptance of prices over $400 and by currency stabilisation in Egypt. On the assumption that prices continue strong, scrap is forecast to rise by 4% in .rst half 2005.


    Heavy liquidation during the first half of 2004 of longs built up in late 2003 generated implied net disinvestment of over 110 tonnes in that period. The second half, however, saw a fair recovery in interest, cutting full year disinvestment to just over 40 tonnes, though this was still in sharp contrast to 2003’s investment of over 650 tonnes. The .rst half of 2005 is expected to see a continuation to this recovery with implied net investment reaching 175 tonnes.


    Demand


    Jewellery fabrication rose by 4% in 2004 in spite of the price rise as a result of an acceleration in global GDP growth and greater accustomisation to higher prices. Much of the increase occurred in India, Turkey and China whilst signi.cant losses were again seen for Italy. The global year-on-year comparison though is .attered by the absence of events as acute as 2003’s SARS or the of.cial Iraq war. This and a further forecast price rise form much of the reasoning behind the forecast 6% fall for jewellery in .rst half 2005. Other fabrication saw a more buoyant 8% rise in 2004, largely thanks to strength in the electronics sector.


    Net producer de-hedging is estimated to have seen a jump of 52% to comfortably over 400 tonnes, primarily through delivery into existing positions though buy backs were still signi.cant. De-hedging is forecast to retreat noticeably in .rst half 2005, largely as a result of higher prices and a shrinking number of hedged producers, not as hedging has come back into fashion.


    Bar hoarding rose by over a third in 2004 to 245 tonnes, chie.y due to gains in East Asia. This plus higher coin fabrication (up 7%) meant world investment (the sum of bar hoarding, coin demand and implied net (dis)investment) stayed positive at 314 tonnes but was still heavily down on 2003’s .gure of well over 900 tonnes. The second half of 2004 saw much higher world investment than the .rst and a further recovery for all its components is forecast to continue into first half 2005.



    Minenproduktion 2004 2478 Tonnen. Produktion in 6 der 8 größten Produzentenländer fiel, mit Ausnahme China (+7 Tonnen ) und Peru (gleichbleibend bei 172 t ). Größte Abnahme in Indonesien (-51 t ) wg. Schwierigkeiten mit Grasberg. Südafrika – 32 t wg. Rand. USA – 14t wg. Wetterbedingungen, Kanada – 11 t wg Schließung von Miramar´s Con und Giant Minen, ferner Wartungsarbeiten und niedrigerer Grade.


    2005 wird wieder Anstieg erwartet (Wetterbedingungen fallen weg und neue Minen wie Newcrests Telfer Mine und Barricks Alto Chicama Peruoperation)


    Welt Cashkosten um 12% auf 250 USD/Unze gestiegen (Energiekosten und schwacher US-Dollar). Südafrika teuerster Platz mit 349 USD/Unze (+16%).



    Gold production in 2004 declined by 114 tonnes, the greatest annual fall in tonnage terms since World War II


    In its latest report on the global gold market, GFMS estimated full year mine production in 2004 at 2,478 tonnes, a 114 tonne or 4% year-on-year decline. The decline – which is the greatest since the early 1940s – was mainly due to temporary factors. Bruce Alway, senior analyst with the precious metals consultancy commented, “gold production was affected by development activities at several mines, the impact of the Grasberg pit wall failure and by poor weather in the .rst quarter of the year.”


    Production in six of the world’s top eight producing countries fell during the year, with only China’s output increasing (up 7 tonnes), whilst production in Peru remained steady at 172 tonnes. The greatest single fall was in Indonesia (down 51 tonnes), where output fell as a result of the impact of the 2003 pit wall failure at the Grasberg mine. Elsewhere the effect of the strong rand has caused South African producers to cut back production in marginal areas with production falling by 32 tonnes as a result. Meanwhile in North America, output fell in both Canada and the United States (down 11 tonnes and 14 tonnes respectively). The fall in US production was primarily due to poor weather conditions in the .rst quarter, and also by development work at several mines. Canadian production was hit by mine closures including Miramar’s Con and Giant mines. In addition maintenance work and lower grades contributed to the fall.


    Commenting on the outlook for 2005, Alway said, “the non weather temporary factors which affected gold output in 2004 are expected to cease in 2005, and this combined with output from new mines will see production rise to a forecast 2,558 tonnes in 2005.” Several mines that started operations in 2004 will ramp up to full production during 2005, including Newcrest’s Telfer mine (opened in Q4 2004) which will contribute almost 25 tonnes per annum at full production. This output will be complemented by production from projects such as Barrick’s Alto Chicama operation in Peru and other mines which will start in 2005.


    World cash costs rose 12% year-on-year to $250/oz, due to higher energy costs and the weakness of the US dollar. South Africa remained the most expensive place to produce gold with average cash costs rising 16% to $349/oz. Canada bucked the trend, seeing cash costs fall 1% mainly due to its mines bene.ting from higher credits generated from the production of by-product metals.


    © Copyright GFMS Limited - January 2005.
    http://www.gfms.co.uk/media_centre_press_releases.htm

  • Der Silber Eagle-Verkauf hatte in 2004 das drittbeste Jahr, seitdem das Programm aufgelegt wurde:


    http://www.silverinstitute.org/news/pr11jan05.html


    Insgesamt wurden 9,6 Mio. Unzen verkauft, davon alleine 2,6 Mio. Unzen im Dezember (!!) 2004 !


    Ist der Dezember-Verkauf immer so stark oder ist die physische Nachfrage nach Silber Eagle tatsächlich im Dezember stark angestiegen ? Wie auch immer, jedenfalls wird die physische Nachfrage nach Silber erhöht !

  • ... und zwischendurch auch wieder mal ein Wort des Dankes an Schwabenpfeil :)

    'Das Gold dem Einzelnen zu entziehen, ihn seines Anspruchs zu berauben, ist ihr Bestreben, während er es vor ihnen zu verbergen sucht. Sie >wollen sein Bestes<< - - - daher nehmen sie es ihm. Sie horten sein Gold in tiefen Tresoren und zahlen mit Papier, das täglich an Wert verliert.'
    ERNST JÜNGER; EUMESWIL, 1977

  • midas  Schwabenpfeil
    SCHLIESSE MICH DEM DANK AN!
    Die täglichen Lemetropole-Infos sind immer sehr wertvoll!
    Keep the spirit
    Pauli

    Erst wenn die letzte Bank pleite, der letzte Staat ruiniert, die letzte Währung wertlos geworden ist, werdet Ihr merken, dass man Gold nicht drucken kann.

  • Sehr interessant ist die aktuelle Situation im Cot-Report Dow Jones:


    http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/cot.htm


    Wir haben inzwischen eine sehr außergewöhnliche Situation erreicht, wo das Volumen der Commercials / Trader deutlich (!!) über die bisherigen Höchststände hinausgeht.


    Dies deutet alles auf eine deutliche Trendwende (in diesem Fall fallende Kurse !) hin.

  • @ midas, pauli, ageka: Schön, dass Ihr auch die Texte aus dem Le Metropole schätzt und sie auch Euch Nutzen bringen ...


    Heute geht es nach einem verlängerten Wochenende frisch gestärkt weiter !



    Gruß
    Schwabenpfeil

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

    Einmal editiert, zuletzt von Schwabenpfeil ()

  • January 14 – Gold $422 down $2.20 – Silver $6.56 down 14 cents


    A Very Fishy Day


    Men go fishing all of their lives without knowing that it is not fish they are after...Henry David Thoreau


    GO GATA!


    Early last evening I was minding my own business at my desk/computer when I noticed the dollar starting to rally sharply and gold starting to descend. I wondered what was happening. Answer:

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

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