Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/03/22/1079939581643.html

Indonesia tries to woo foreign miners

March 23, 2004

Indonesia is moving to resolve conflicting and confusing policies to persuade global mining companies to return after years of withholding investment.

And several Australian companies are among those affected - though the latest initiatives aren't likely to trigger a rush, given the difficulties facing foreign operators in the country.

Last week, President Megawati Sukarnoputri moved to resolve five years of regulatory confusion that has blocked some promising mining projects. In a decree, Ms Megawati declared that mining contracts signed for areas that later were designated as protected national forests will be allowed to proceed, despite a 1999 forestry law banning mining in those areas.

Still, industry executives don't expect investments to start flooding in until more progress is made with another big problem: the widespread lawlessness that plagues Indonesia's outer islands.

Indonesia, one of the world's most resource-rich countries, badly needs mining investment to help spur economic growth in its remote regions - particularly in eastern Indonesia, a mostly undeveloped area with many large gold and copper deposits.

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http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/03/22/1079939581643.html

Diese Meldung von Gold Fields Mineral Service *GFMS* könnte schon viel eher einer der Gründe für den heutigen Preisanstieg beim Gold gewesen sein!

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Gold producer dehedging seen rising in 2004 - GFMS

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Monday March 22, 3:01 PM EST

VANCOUVER, British Columbia , March 22 (Reuters) - De-hedging by gold producers could this year outstrip levels reached in 2003, boosted by world No. 2 producer AngloGold Ltd. (ANGJ) as it unwinds contracts to sell unmined metal forward, a leading mine research group said on Monday.

London-based GFMS said in a report it expected de-hedging of between 11 million ounces and 13 million ounces of gold this year, compared to nearly 10 million ounces last year.

To protect against future weakness in the gold price, producers enter into hedging transactions, which include selling gold forward at set prices and other more complicated derivative transactions.

With the gold price surging from near $250 an ounce in early 2001 to above $400 last year, many producers who are locked into contracts to sell gold at lower-than-market prices are unwinding these positions -- dehedging -- through various mechanisms to increase their exposure to spot prices.

Hedging is blamed for stunting demand as gold purchasers have already bought unmined metal for future delivery, so depressing the bullion price. Conversely, de-hedging stimulates demand and the gold price.

GFMS said that South Africa's AngloGold, following its recent merger with Ashanti Goldfields Co Ltd. (AGC), has said it will bring the amalgamated companies' hedge book down to a maximum of 30 percent of the merged group's output over the next five years.

"(This) would suggest a target hedge level for the combined entity at around 11 million ounces, or some 3.1 million ounces lower than the reported delta-adjusted position in December," GFMS said in a report prepared for banking group Investec.

"The rate at which Anglo unwinds this "excess" hedge cover could be an important factor in the scale of de-hedging in 2004."

GFMS said that just over 70 percent of the de-hedging measured last year came at the hands of four producers: Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM), Anglogold, Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) and Placer Dome Inc. (PDG).

In 2003, a key driver behind the high levels of de-hedging were buybacks triggered by mergers and acquisitions.

GFMS said levels of project hedging -- where producers are required by financiers to lock in a price for a portion of production -- are expected to be less over the next two years than the 3.5 million ounces added to the global book in 2003.

Based on projects in place, GFMS said this type of hedging could add roughly 2 million ounces to the global hedge book this year and 1 million ounces in 2005.

©2004 Reuters Limited.

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FOR: EXPATRIATE RESOURCES LTD.

TSX VENTURE SYMBOL: EXR

MARCH 22, 2004 - 11:54 ET

Expatriate Resumes Drilling on Islena Silver-Copper-Zinc
Mineralization in Chile

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(CCNMatthews - Mar 22, 2004) -
Expatriate Resources Ltd. announces results for drilling of five
target areas identified on the Islena Project, Chile.
Expatriate's wholly owned subsidiary Compania Minera Latina
Limitada completed 2488 metres of reverse circulation drilling in
13 holes. Initial drilling in Union Mine area intersected high
grade copper-silver mineralisation. Drilling of this area will
resume March 22, 2004.

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UAE gold demand set to rise 10 percent in 2004

http://www.chinaview.cn 2004-03-22 23:45:45

ABU DHABI, March 22 (Xinhuanet) -- Gold consumption of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is expected to increase by 10 percent in 2004 over last year, the official news agency WAM reported Monday.

According to Moaz Barakat, managing director of Middle East, Turkey and Pakistan market in World Gold Council (WGC), the gold consumption in UAE, which dropped to 90.3 tonnes in 2003 from 93.1 tonnes in 2002, will go up by 10 percent by the end of 2004.

He predicted that gold imports into Dubai, the main commercial city of UAE, which have been showing a steady decline in recent years, will also grow by 10 percent this year.

He attributed the steady decline in gold imports into Dubai not only to a constant increase in international gold prices since the fall of the US dollar, but also to Dubai's weak gold reexport market during the past three years.

The Dubai gold trade statistics issued by Dubai Metals and Commodities Centre showed that the emirate's gold imports in 2001 amounted to 409,528 kilo bars, while in 2002 imports came down to 375,638 kilo bars and stood at 373,771 kilo bars in 2003. Enditem

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March 22 - Gold $417.20 up $5.10 - Silver $7.59 up 6 cents

Gold Breaks Through Key Resistance, Up 6 Days In A Row

Zitat

"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it’s the only thing that ever has." - Margaret Mead

GO GATA!

Both excitement and disgust filled my air today. Gold was firm right out of the box, opening up higher than expected and then running up from there. First, it easily took out $414 resistance, its recent high, and then it set sail for $416, the spike high of a month ago. That key technical resistance point also fell very easily. However, it was business as usual. The $6 sickening price-capping rule was set in motion by The Gold Cartel and that was all she wrote, which is always the way it is. Goldman Sachs, the big seller all day, stopped gold twice at $418.50 bid, or $6.40 higher. These crooked bums make me puke. Can’t wait for the day they are overwhelmed by free market forces.

Once again for the record, how many times or years does the $6 rule have to be invoked in consecutive market action before someone else in the gold world will make mention of it besides MIDAS?

Aside from the nauseating price-rigging, the breaking through substantial resistance is a very constructive development from a technical standpoint.

By reviewing the gold weekly we can see how powerful a set up we have to move the price much higher. Gold has broken to the upside out of a massive bullish flag formation:

Add $5 for today’s action

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/W

Gold has closed higher 6 days in a row, made a two month high, and has gone straight up after closing at $395 a week ago Friday.

The gold open interest continues to rise. Friday it gained 3291 contracts to 263,815. It should go up, way up. With what is going on in the world, nothing is cheaper and more valuable than gold.

The silver open interest jumped sharply to 126,970, up 7,810, which is the largest jump in recent memory. Nothing wrong with that sort of leap with the silver fundamentals so stunningly bullish and the market itself moving up nicely on the increase. The March open interest only fell 2 contracts to 290.

There were zero deliveries. Needless to say I am still waiting for my March delivery.

Silver left a small two cent gap right after the opening and finished the day making a new 15-year high.

The silver weekly is a sight to behold. Except for one consolidation period, it has gone straight up. It now appears to be ready to go into an acceleration phase:

Add 6 cents to include today’s action

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/W

Meanwhile, the fundamental news for silver is EXPLOSIVE!! My London source tells me there are tens of millions of ounces of physical that need to be supplied very soon and THIS AMOUNT DOES NOT EXIST at the moment. There is no telling what can happen in the weeks to come. Right after London opened this morning, silver traded at least 17 cents higher, or $7.70 bid, before selling off into the Comex opening.

It gets even better. Today a completely different highly regarded source confirmed to me the Chinese have tied up 75% of the world’s 2005 silver production. This means The Cafe has two independent sources confirming each other on this 2005 Chinese silver buying. Currently the Chinese are aggressively buying silver and putting it in storage for INDUSTRIAL USE in the years to come. They are big believers the silver price is going to explode in the years to come and they want their supply in inventory.

The Chinese are also buying palladium, uranium and coal. They are scouring West Virginia and Alabama buying the highest quality coal and are shipping it back to China to be used two to three years down the road.

The large jump in open interest tells us the trade continues to pile in on the short side while the specs are in there taking them on. We are coming closer and closer to that Commercial Signal Failure we have been waiting for so long. It seems to me we could get one at this point in time because so many in the silver world are clueless about what is going on behind the scenes. They don’t seem to realize the silver is disappearing fast and has already disappeared in many parts of the world. Or, maybe some do, but are under instructions from The Gold Cartel headquarters to keep selling?

I believe the mainstream silver world is being fooled for the following reasons:

*The lease rates are not shooting up.
*The London spot price, where the shortage is acute, has not gone to a significant premium to New York.
*The Comex spreads are not tightening to a substantial degree and we have not gone into backwardization yet (front months priced higher than the back months).

Can’t speak for the first two, but I suspect we will go into backwardization in the weeks to come. London is basically out of silver (as GATA’s Mike Bolser has been alluding to recently) and it won’t be long before those desperately looking to satisfy silver commitments will have to come to the Comex. Therefore, it also won’t be long before the Comex warehouse stocks begin to disappear and the spreads could go bonkers.

Here is a spread to watch. May silver closed 2.3 cents under December. If May begins to trade over Dec, the panic should begin to kick in. Meanwhile, AIG, the monstrous insurance conglomerate and stealth member of The Gold Cartel, was a seller of May and buyer of December all day today.

To give you some idea how out of it the mainstream silver commentators are, regard this silver analysis which surfaced today:

LONDON, March 22 (Reuters) - Silver was trading just shy of a new six-year peak on Monday in Europe as fund buyers renewed their buying offensive with the 1998 peak of $7.50 an ounce firmly in their sights. Gold was also firmer, supported by a weaker dollar and Middle East security worries stirred by Israel's assassination of Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin. Silver, used in jewellery and by industry, has been supported in its recent jolt higher by firm base metals prices. That was outweighing silver's weak demand fundamentals. "The metal is showing no signs of slowing with another push by the funds likely to match the (Warren) Buffett drive higher (to) $7.90 back in February 1998," James Moore of The BullionDesk.com said in a daily report. Moore referred to the high achieved briefly when Buffett -- the world's second richest person -- bought 130 million ounces of the metal. Silver was quoted at $7.65/7.67 an ounce by 1138 GMT, up from $7.54/7.57 last quoted in the New York market on Friday. "The fundamentals don't bear out this price rise but I wouldn't get in the way of a steam train at the moment," a dealer said.

-END-

That’s the sort of silver commentary which is not only prevalent, it is universal. Amazing! The silver fundamentals have never been this bullish in history and most everyone has got it wrong. All I can say is the information passed your way on silver these past few months has been priceless. Silver is on its way to $30/$40 an ounce because the demand for silver is that good and there is precious little supply left. The stunning price move up is going to shock most of the investment world, Wall Street, and the precious metals commentators.

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The John Brimelow Report

Go Specs!

Monday, March 22, 2004

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $1.31, PM $2.17, with world gold at $412.25 and $414.50. Below legal import point. India is not responsible for the present buoyancy in the world gold price. Faced with this morning’s weakness in the dollar, the Indian Reserve Bank permitted the rupee to edge up to a gold-purchase-facilitating 43 month high (still up only 1.1% against the dollar this year).

Silver was quite volatile this morning, making an assessment of India’s silver buying inclinations difficult. This is in itself astonishing: in the Buffet announcement aftermath in ’98, Indian silver prices briefly appeared to be at or below world prices. Currently, it is not clear that local dealers can pay the import duty (c. $US 34c per oz today) and the other costs to allow legal imports, but it is clear that local silver prices are well above world prices: an indication that, whatever else is happening in silver, normal physical appetite is not totally suppressed.

The Shanghai Gold Exchange is indicating discounts to world gold, on the grades it follows, of $1.50 + per oz. with world gold at $412.80. Rhona O’Connell has started to comment on this measure in her weekly article on http://www.thebulliondesk.com , which one regards as an important professional vindication.

The yen weakened a touch during Japanese hours and TOCOM open interest edged up 1,158 Comex equivalent; but Tokyo was not really interested: volume sagged 16% to only the equivalent of 21,663 Comex lots. The active contract close up 5 yen and world gold stood 50c higher at the close. (Volume on Friday in NY was 48,390 contracts and open interest rose 3,291 lots to 263,815.)

This lack of premium in the Eastern physical markets, and non-participation by the main Far Eastern futures market gives further credence to the view advanced last week: the (Western) Funds are back, apparently on a geopolitical concept. UBS essentially confirms this

Zitat

"We believe that the increase in speculative long positions in gold over the past couple of weeks represents risk aversion buying rather than new pessimism about the short-term performance of the US dollar. Any further deterioration in sentiment as a result of terrorist events or security concerns could see gold rally further…Comex-trading gold speculators added 0.8 million ounces to their net long positions taking them to 13.6Moz in the week to 16 March, almost all of this new longs. Open interest changes since last Tuesday indicate that a further 1.5 million ounces were added in the two days to last Thursday with more probably added since then. The buying that has taken place has been unusual in that it took place when other speculators were cutting dollar short positions via the IMM futures markets…this buying could remain a feature of the gold market for some time to come."

Buying of this character is not necessarily bad: indeed, in consciously resisting the usual technical and timing ambushes it can be quite soothing to a gold-friend. And based on January’s experience, it could add another 4Mm Comex ounces without becoming extraordinary.

This is just as well, because the gold market’s constant companion – the heavy overhead seller - has made a re- appearance. Estimated volume by noon was a huge 74,000 contracts, with only 12,500 switches.

CBSMarketWatch carries a discussion of the impact of these developments on the Newsletter community at

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/new…C67F4B59FD%7D&siteid=mktw

JB

Na da kriegen die Gold Shortis gerade eins auf die Löffel!

GOLD gerade eben hoch auf 419.40 Dollar!!

Ob wir die 420.- heute noch sehen werden?

Spieler0815

Jipangu war einer der ersten Investoren die bei AFlease stark reduziert haben. Ferdinand Lips hat den "Hausschlüssel" auch bereits zurückgegeben, der letzte Beitrag von Stewart Bailey zu AFlease legt nahe, dass Kapitalerhöhungen nötig sind, und das nicht zu knapp. Die Grösse der Dilutierung hängt davon ab zu welchem Preis die AFlease die neuen Aktien an der Börse unterbringen kann, und der wiederum wird vom Börsen Kurs bestimmt werden.

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Das die Kebbels nicht ohne Grund bei Afrikander Lease einsteigen ist schicherlich anzunehmen. Uranium kann der Grund sein, muss es aber nicht unbedingt alleine sein. Vielleicht liegt der Grund auch an der Bonanza South Mine. Der kürzlich, geplatzte Deal mit Harmony Gold wegen der Kalgold Mine, ist vermutlich nicht zuletzt auch den den Kebbels zu verdanken, die wie ich glaube, interessiert daran sind, möglichst billig die Kontrolle von AFlease zu übernehmen.

Wenn ich mir den Chart so anschaue, sollte eigentlich bald der Boden gefunden sein. Wenn nicht, dann sehe ich eher zappenduster für den Kurs von AFRIKANDER LEASE.

In Frankfurt ist die AFRIKANDER LEASE ja wenigstens heute mal 3% gestiegen.

AFRIKANDER LEASE ist meiner Meinung nach zur Zeit ein hoch spekulatives Investment. Drin bleiben, weitere Aktien Zeichnen, oder jetzt noch die Reissleine ziehen sind Fragen, um die ich Dich nicht unbedingt beneide.

Gruss

ThaiGuru

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COMEX gold rises above $420 per ounce

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Tuesday March 23, 12:35 PM EST

NEW YORK, March 23 (Reuters) - COMEX gold recovered from early losses Tuesday to rise above $420 an ounce as funds bought the metal for portfolio insurance against geopolitical instability.

At 12:27 a.m. EST, April gold was up $2.30 at $419.80 an ounce, just after topping at $420.80, its highest level since Jan 15 when it was retreating from 15-year highs.

©2004 Reuters Limited.

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Bema advances big gold mine project in Siberia

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Tuesday March 23, 12:12 PM EST

LONDON, March 23 (Reuters) - Canadian-listed Bema (BGO) Gold Corp (BFOq) said on Tuesday it had completed initial drilling at its multi-million-ounce gold project in eastern Russia and hoped to complete a preliminary economic study by May.

Bema Chairman and Chief Executive Clive Johnson said its Kupol project, located in Chukotka, was regarded by U.S. analysts as one of the most significant new gold discoveries in the world in the past 25 years.

It was estimated to contain over six million ounces of measured, indicated and inferred resources.

Zitat

"We expect to start production at somewhere around 600-800,000 ounces of gold per year. With the kind of grades we're seeing, we are expecting some very low costs, less than $100 an ounce,"

Johnson told delegates at a Russian mining seminar in London.

He expected production to start in 2007.

According to data from precious metals consultancy GFMS, average costs (including depreciation and charges) for Russian gold mining in 2002 were $205 an ounce.

Bema has an option to purchase up to a 75 percent interest in the project from the Chukotka government, which will hold the rest.

The miner also owns 79 percent of another gold mine in far eastern Russia, Julietta, which produced just over half of Bema's total output of 250,315 ounces in 2003.

A warehouse fire hit the Julietta mine in February, which could affect first quarter 2004 production.

Johnson said an update on the impact of the fire would be provided during a conference call with analysts on Thursday, but said he expected the mine to get back up to full production within a few weeks.

He added that Bema was interested in investing further in Russia despite the inherent challenges and risks there.

The company recently launched a convertible bond worth $70 million, partly to fund mining in Russia and Chile.

Johnson said the issue of the seven-year bond that has a conversion price of $4.664 (a 37.4 percent premium) was oversubscribed.

"I think it is an interesting (financial) alternative to other types of project debt," he said.

©2004 Reuters Limited.

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FOR: SILVER STANDARD RESOURCES INC.

TSX VENTURE SYMBOL: SSO
NASDAQ SYMBOL: SSRI
BERLIN SYMBOL: 858840

MARCH 23, 2004 - 09:02 ET

Silver Standard Resources Inc.:

Infill Drilling at Manantial Espejo Intersects High-Grade Sections

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(CCNMatthews - Mar 23, 2004) -
Silver Standard Resources Inc. is pleased to report further
results from an expanded program of infill, metallurgical and
exploration drilling underway at the Manantial Espejo property
located in southern Argentina. Results confirm continuity of gold
and silver mineralization in the primary vein systems - Maria and
Karina/Union - and include high-grade intersections. Reported in
the attached table are high-grade intersections that exceed 200
grams/tonne silver-equivalent. Silver Standard and Pan American
Silver Corp. (Nasdaq: PAAS, TSX: PAA) are 50/50 joint venture
owners of the property, which is presently the focus of a
feasibility study with Pan American Silver as operator.

At Karina/Union, infill drilling has continued to intersect
multiple veins associated with northwest-trending fault
structures. Locally very high grade intersections have been
encountered over a strike length of up to 250 meters and the zone
is open to the northwest and at depth. Highlights include holes
T-346 and T-373, with hole T-346 intersecting 49.93 meters
grading 6.98 grams/tonne gold and 805 grams/tonne silver (163.8
feet grading 0.2 ounces/ton gold and 23.5 ounces/ton silver),
including 25.14 meters grading 12.95 grams/tonne gold and 1,425
grams/tonne silver (82.5 feet grading 0.38 ounces/ton gold and
41.6 ounces/ton silver) (with additional geological
interpretation underway to confirm the orientation of the
structures); and hole T-373 intersecting 7.55 meters grading 9.27
grams/tonne gold and 1,363 grams/tonne silver (24.8 feet grading
0.27 ounces/ton gold and 39.8 ounces/ton silver) and 6.5 meters
grading 22.17 grams/tonne gold and 1,024 grams/tonne silver (21.3
feet grading 0.65 ounces/ton gold and 29.9 ounces/ton silver).
These results underscore the high-grade nature of this vein
system and its importance as a source of mineralization for a
robust mining operation.

The Maria is the largest and best defined vein on the property at
this time. Holes T-355 through T-359 were drilled to provide
additional information on the Maria vein. Highlights include
holes T-355 and T-356 located on Line 600W with hole T-355
intersecting 5.05 meters grading 2.59 grams/tonne gold and 1,015
grams/tonne silver (16.6 feet grading 0.08 ounces/ton gold and
29.6 ounces/ton silver), and hole T-356 intersecting 6.96 meters
grading 22.12 grams/tonne gold and 1,386 grams/tonne silver (22.8
feet grading 0.65 ounces/ton gold and 40.4 ounces/ton silver). In
addition, hole T-357, located 350 meters from these holes at Line
250W, also intersected high-grade gold values over a significant
interval: 20.25 meters grading 12.43 grams/tonne gold and 204
grams/tonne silver (66.4 feet grading 0.36 ounces/ton gold and
6.0 ounces/ton silver).

The feasibility study for the Manantial Espejo property is well
underway and is expected to be completed by early 2005.
Environmental work has commenced and geotechnical work,
metallurgical studies and further infill and exploration drilling
are proceeding.

In other project news, Phase IV infill and exploration drilling
is continuing at Silver Standard's 100%-owned La Pitarrilla
property in Mexico. To date, Silver Standard has outlined two
silver zones at La Pitarrilla, Cordon Colorado and Pena Dike, and
is preparing to drill an additional exploration target, known as
Javelina Creek, located two kilometers to the east of the Pena
Dyke. In addition, a resource estimate, based on drilling to
date, is currently being prepared by an independent qualified
person.

Silver Standard Resources Inc. is a well-financed silver resource
company with over $60 million in cash, excluding marketable
securities. The company continues to seek resource growth through
acquisitions and exploration of its own projects.

To receive Silver Standard's news releases by e-mail, contact
Paul LaFontaine, director, investor relations at
invest@silverstandard.com or call (888) 338-0046. The statements
that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements
involving known and unknown risks and uncertainties which could
cause actual results to vary considerably from these statements.
The risks and uncertainties include those described in Silver
Standard's SEC Form 20F as amended.

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FOR: IMA EXPLORATION INC.

WKN 884971

TSX VENTURE SYMBOL: IMR
OTC Bulletin Board SYMBOL: IMXPF
FRANKFURT, BERLIN SYMBOL: IMT

MARCH 23, 2004 - 10:00 ET

IMA Intersects Silver Mineralization Between Navidad and Galena Hills

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(CCNMatthews - Mar 23, 2004) - IMA Exploration Inc. (IMR-TSX.V, IMXPF-OTC.BB) is pleased to announce results from drill holes 31 through 40 from the Company's 100% owned Navidad Project. Highlights include the first drill holes
between Navidad and Galena Hills where significant silver
intercepts were returned from holes 32, 34, and 40 suggesting a
connection between silver mineralization at Navidad Hill and the
Galena Hill silver deposit. Navidad and Galena Hills are 1200
meters apart. (see Table 1).

Prior to these drill holes, 800m remained untested between
Navidad and Galena Hills. Five drill holes tested the gap between
Navidad and Galena Hills; of these three returned significant
silver intercepts. All of the holes within the Galena Hill
deposit area contained significant intercepts of silver-lead
mineralization and continue to show excellent continuity of
mineralization and silver-lead grades.

Highlights of results from these drill holes include hole 36 with 49.9 metres of 179.1 g/t silver and hole 37 with 76.3 metres of 139.4 g/t silver including an interval of 3.90 metres with 597.4
g/t silver and 7.23% lead. Hole 40 returned 48.0m of 108.5 g/t
silver including a higher-grade interval of 21m of 160.4 g/t
silver (see Table 2). Fifty-three diamond drill holes have now
been drilled at Navidad Project for a total of 8853.6 metres.

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Still Manipulated - Silver

By: Theodore Butler

Although silver had its highest monthly closing price in sixteen years, it’s still not that far above its average price for the last decade and a half. While I am sure that the regulators will be quick to jump on the price rise in silver as proof it is responding to the forces of supply and demand and is not being manipulated, that's hogwash. The CFTC and the COMEX would love to have you forget how silver was depressed for decades, in the face of a documented deficit. However, I think the educated silver investor will see through that argument.

Only one thing will tell you when silver is no longer manipulated. That’s the elimination of the excessive dealer short position on the COMEX. The manipulation began in 1982-83 with an excessive dealer short position, and the manipulation will only be pronounced dead when that short position in no longer excessive. What's excessive? Simple - a short position out of line with every other traded commodity; a short position greater than annual world production; a short position several times greater than known world inventories. If you compare silver’s short position, silver’s world production, and known world inventories with every other U.S. exchange-traded commodity, you'll see, clearly, that silver stands out like a sore thumb.

While a few commodities have short positions greater than total inventories, none share the dubious distinction of COMEX silver, which regularly sports a short position greater than world production and total world known inventories combined. This is truly an absurd condition, having a short position many times greater than all the known silver in the world and greater than all the silver that could be produced in an entire year. How can you be short more than what exists or can be produced? And if it's no big deal, as the regulators contend, why doesn't this bizarre condition exist in any other commodity?

Twenty years ago I was a commodity broker/analyst for Drexel, Burnham, Lambert looking for my next investment play. I had just completed (successful) plays in soybeans, orange juice and U.S. Treasury bonds, both on outright and spread positions, as well as conducting a straddle options writing program on the OEX. A client suggested I look at the fundamentals of silver, because he knew I liked to look under the hood. He claimed there was a deficit in silver and that it had peculiar price-inelastic production and consumption characteristics. The client gave the suggestion in the form of a challenge to explain silver's low price, in spite of the deficit, and no voluntary inventory dishoarding.

Even though I had traded silver over the years, I never really studied it, so I took the challenge. For almost a year, I pondered the conundrum of a commodity in a deficit with no sharp price increase. I read and reread everything it was possible to read on silver. At first, I thought it was strictly a perception problem, with investors just not seeing the facts. I went so far as to challenge the statistical reporting agencies, because I thought this might be the problem.

In scanning the Wall Street Journal's commodities page, it looked like silver wasn't out of line in terms of volume and open interest with other markets. Then, it jumped out at me. Rather than just look at the open interest in terms of the tens of thousands of contracts, I converted just what those contracts meant in terms of ounces of silver. I did the same with all the other commodities. When I converted the number of contracts into ounces, and pounds, and tons, and bushels, and barrels, a completely different picture emerged. All the commodities had a total long and short position well below world annual production. All except silver.

While silver's COMEX total short position was greater than world production, other commodities didn't come close. Crude oil had a short position of hundreds of thousands of contracts. When you converted those contracts into equivalent barrels of oil, the short position came to only 2% or 3% of world production. The COMEX gold short position did make up 30% to 50% of world production, but when you factored in known world gold inventories of billions of ounces, the short position was back in the 2% range. Only silver had a short position greater than inventories and production.

If a small group of traders sold massive amounts of any commodity short, like they’ve done with silver, the price of that item would be in the gutter. Imagine what would happen if a group of concentrated shorts got together to sell millions of grain contracts, or tens of millions of oil contracts. There would be extreme price dislocation. Yet this is precisely what has happened in COMEX silver.

The price of silver will stay manipulated as long as the COMEX short position stays at excessive levels. When the COMEX silver short position falls in line with the short vs. production ratio of all other commodities, the manipulation will be over. (If you're looking for a number. I'd guess when the futures open interest falls to 30 to 50 thousand contracts.)

We are at a critical juncture, and I don't think we'll stay near the $7 level for long. The dealer short community is under severe financial pressure, not just from silver, but a whole host of other commodity shorts. But, like a cornered rat, they are not to be underestimated. They will exploit any avenue or news event to cause a sharp sell-off. Against their desperation, the overwhelming evidence of strong industrial demand and growing shortages for commodities dictate that it's just a matter of time before the silver manipulation is broken. Get used to the volatility. Now, more than ever, you should own real silver that’s fully paid for.

-- Posted 23 March, 2004

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Breaking news

2004-03-23 19:07 GMT:

Gold prices end higher for seventh session

SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- Gold futures logged a seven-session winning streak, with the April contract up $2.40 to close at $420 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have now climbed a total of $24.40 in seven sessions as geopolitical tensions abroad keep luring investors to the safety of the precious metal. May silver closed up by 1 percent and May copper turned higher to close with a 0.4 percent gain. This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see http://www.cbsmarketwatch.com .