Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)
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[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.minesite.com/assets/logptop-n.jpg]
Minews. Thanks LC. Hello again to our German correspondent who spent most of the week at the European Gold Forum in Zurich. I gather this event is the most prestigeous one in the gold sector in the German speaking part of Europe. Tell us more about it.
FC. It was and still is the only two day gold related event in Germany and Switzerland but only around 100 money managers, investment fund managers, bankers, journalist and some IR/PR related business people showed up there. I looks like the organisers had the same problem as many others before. They didn’t manage it to reach the whole Swiss/German financial community and no private investor had a chance to attend this conference which is in my opinion is a bad point for everybody.
There aren’t as many institutional investors in Switzerland and parts of Germany and Austria who are interested in the mining sector than you have in the UK or North America so it must be time that the organising companies understood the Swiss/German mentality and open up these conferences to everybody at no cost. Often North American mining companies have no real retail shareholder support, but the question is why nobody is working to change it. Some people in Germany and Switzerland have taught this lesson to some smaller exploration or production companies in the last two or three years and I know a dozen of them who are really happy with strong retail support mainly out of Germany
Minenews : An interesting comment. What were the most exciting stories at the conference you sorted out from 30 companies presenting there at the famous Baur au Lac near the Lake Zurich ?
FC. First of all most I noticed the fact that many analysts and journalists came there to meet and hear the presentations of the emerging producers or advanced exploration plays. I personally liked the presentations and the potential of Orezone and Solitario Resources to give you two of my favorites.
Minenews : Any rumours you think could be of interest for our readers, too ?
FC. Yes, on top of my list is the never ending rumour of a takeover or more takeovers from Golden Star a emerging gold producer in West Africa. This company had his own operational problems for a long time last year, but now their CEO moved to the minesite in Ghana and it looks more promising than ever before. The main target of their aquisition growth plan could be the small Australian junior Moto Goldmines This company is well known and heavily promoted in Germany for the last twelve months, because it is run by the German mining consultant Klaus Eckhof. The shares of Moto Goldmines started the week at 0.21 Euro, and moved up steadily every day to close the week in Frankfurtat 0.26 Euro which shows that these rumours are spreading out and we will see if a offer emerges out of that in the near future.
Minews. A rumour which could make sense. Any other volume mover on the German stock exchange ?
FC. After coming back from Switzerland I checked the chat boards and there is only one company which caught my attention again and that’s the Canadian gold explorer Eaglecrest Explorations. That company is run by Paul Zdebiak, a ex-broker who is well known in Vancouver for many years and created a positive following in Germany, too. He started with his gold venture in Bolivia at a time where nobody wanted to got there and had some tough years to raise some money to clean off a debt burdened balance sheet. Just two weeks ago the shares broke out from their long term trading range between C$0.10and C$0.15 . The shares are trading now for over two years on the Frankfurt Exchange and the r development program in Bolivia ow seems to be attracting investors as they closed at C$0.22 which equates to to nearly 14 eurocents.
Minews. Thanks Frankfurt Correspondent. Talk to you next week.
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Bank chief says China may speed currency revaluation
By Geoff Dyer in Boao, Hainan
Published: April 25 2005 03:00 | Last updated: April 25 2005 03:00China could accelerate plans to reform its controversial currency regime, because of mounting international pressure, the head of the country's central bank admitted at the weekend.
Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, said the government was still working on the "sequencing" of a potential policy change, but acknowledged that encouragement from abroad could result in a quicker decision."If there is more pressure from outside, it may force us to speed up our reform," said Mr Zhou, speaking at the Boao Forum for Asia on Hainan, an island in southern China.
The pressure on China to let its currency rise against the US dollar has increased in the last week, after the US and several other members of the G7 group of leading industrial nations called for China to take immediate action on its foreign exchange policy.
The US Congress and European Union are examining possible tariffs or other restrictions on Chinese imports. Alan Greenspan, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, and John Snow, US Treasury secretary, said last week it was China's responsibility to act now.
Non-tradeable forward contracts based on the renminbi jumped sharply last week as investors expected Beijing to ease its dollar peg. The discount on one-year non-deliverable renminbi-dollar forwards widened 550 points on Friday and 950 points during the week to 4,600, the widest level since early January.
This implied that the market was betting on an exchange rate of Rmb7.818 to the dollar in 12 months' time. Although China has fixed its currency at around Rmb8.3 to the dollar for over a decade, the government has indicated for some time that it was preparing a shift in policy. China's sharply rising exports and foreign exchange reserves have prompted growing accusations that the currency is undervalued.
Mr Zhou stressed there was no timetable yet for a change in policy. "We have a very clear target in this regard, but we have our own sequence," he said. "We are doing some preparation, for example the reform of the financial sector, to enlarge the role of the foreign-exchange market." Another leading Chinese official at the conference said investors should not expect a large currency appreciation.
"You can't expect the renminbi to appreciate by 10 per cent tomorrow. It would be disastrous for China as well as to other countries," said Wei Benhua, deputy chief of the state administration of foreign exchange. "If we adjust a little bit it will not contribute a great deal to reducing the trade deficit with the US."
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Last week, currencies and oil gained strongly against the dollar. Gold and silver traded in range while coffee, grains and bonds gained handsomely as predicted. The stock market is in the grip of nature and faithfully following its course.
I WARN CURRENCY TRADERS TO TRADE CAREFULY AS I SEE A ANOTHER VERY STRONG WAVE COMING IN THE DOLLAR.Let us watch and see how commodities including gold will move when the dollar rises. The coming period will be very interesting as well being a decisive time for commodity traders.
Thanks & God Bless
Mahendra 23 April 2004
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GOLD ( bis 29.04.2005)
Last week it inched upwards closely emulating the Euro’s move. This shows that it still has a very strong bond with the dollar’s movement. For the last four months I have been waiting for a sign of the breaking relationship between gold and the dollar but it hasn’t come. For that time, no convincing move has been witnessed in gold and it is one of the reasons why I have not given the buying signal. The other reason is that for the last three months, the period has been decidedly unfavourable to gold. However, this is poised to change soon.
For a short period, this week will be a positive time for gold except Monday and Tuesday. One can buy gold on Tuesday and sell it by Friday. This is because it looks very weak come Monday and Tuesday of next week.
For this week, the range of gold will be 428.40 to 439.20. The breaking of either side of these prices could result in a 2% move in the gold prices.
For the last one and half months, metal stocks have not performed well. This was bound to happen as the outlook regarding gold prices wasn’t very positive. Though gold prices have not fallen that much, negative planetary movements have affected metal stocks quite adversely.
For this week however, the outlook for metal stocks is quite favourable and one can therefore buy them for a short period.
SILVER
During this week silver will strongly move up after facing a tough time on Monday and Tuesday. One can therefore buy silver on Wednesday and sell it on Friday. In comparison to gold, silver is going to remain positive for the next one month. Similar to last week, silver will also have a wide range movement during this week.
The range will be $7.11 to $7.38.CURRENCIES
Last week, the dollar was weak and all other currencies gained strongly against it. This is a great opportunity to get out from all currencies and just hold buying positions in the dollar. Go short in the Euro, Pound, Swiss Franc and the Yen. I see the Euro soon touching $1.25
I WARN CURRENCY TRADERS TO TRADE CAREFULLY AS I SEE A ANOTHER VERY STRONG WAVE COMING IN THE DOLLAR.
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- Oder so ähnlich interpretiere ich RR ...
Russell On Gold & Real Estate
(vronsky) Apr 25, 17:16
"As for gold, the Commercials continue to "have their fun" with gold. The Commercials are always short gold and silver, it's simply a matter of their being heavily short or lightly short. Over the last few weeks the Commercials (gold banks, gold mines, large fabricators) have been building up their short positions, so it's obvious that they playing for lower gold. Will they get it? They usually do, but even in the world of Commercials vs. big speculators (the hedge funds) nothing is certain. When gold goes into its later second and third phase, the Commercial shorts will be crucified -- but not yet.I thought the gold action was a little different today. I say that because the dollar was higher all day, but invariably, when the dollar has been stronger gold has been weaker. Yet today with a stronger dollar gold ended up .60. That's different action, and it maybe significant action.
Real estate is where the US consumer has his money. The housing bubble is huge and seemingly growing bigger. I read the newspapers, and I read the Bloomberg -- but I listen to the market. And I notice that the building stocks, almost all of them, are starting to look toppy. Typical is giant Lennar Corp., a major builder. The stock appears to have topped out, and I wonder if this isn't an early warning for home buyers. The fun in home-buying is still going on -- but for how much longer?"
Posted on behalf of
DOW THEORY LETTERS
Richard Russell, Editor-in-chiefOh Ja ... Wie lange noch? - Und das ist die FRAGE!
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SELLING SHORT
How it works:
Many people have never sold a stock short because it sounds confusing, dangerous and very risky at first. Actually shorting is just the opposite of buying a stock (also known as "going long"), and if done correctly, is no more risky. When you go long, you buy a stock because you think it will go up. When you sell short, you do the opposite: you sell a stock because you think it's going down.But how can you sell a stock you don't own? No problem. Without going into excessive detail, most stocks can simply be borrowed from your broker and sold short, with the proceeds of the sale going directly into your account. After the stock falls (which you have been expecting), you buy it back, return it to your broker and say, "Here's your stock back, thanks for the loan." You keep the difference between what you sold it for, and what you bought it back for. I know it sounds bizarre, but it is perfectly legal and traders in the know do it all the time.
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Monday, April 25, 2005, 8:12:00 PM EST
Gold and Dollar Market Summary
Author: Jim Sinclair
Dear CIGA:
When considering any position, please keep in mind the following words of Paul Volcker, past Chairman of the Federal Reserve, which were recently reported in the Washington Post: “I don’t know whether change will come with a bang or a whimper, whether sooner or later. But as things stand, it is more likely than not that it will be financial crises rather than policy foresight that will force the change.”
So when you consider the US dollar and its modest recovery from recent lows, do you really feel comfortable buying it? When considering the gold market, do you really feel comfortable without it? The dollar rally so far is pathetic.
You will recall that I told you when cyclical analysis calls for an action and the market does not provide it, a strong message is delivered. If the action called for is significantly bullish and that fails to occur then the market is much weaker than anyone realizes at that time. This could easily turn out to be the message that the US dollar is now delivering to its supporters.
The madness of the many is now taking the form of the new argument of who has stagflated the most. What total nonsense! Do you really believe in today’s interrelated economic world that anyone will escape the impact of Bernanke’s massive liquidity injection into the global economy and its impact on prices? Everybody is going to feel this one. Do you really believe that China’s economy is an internal affair and is not based upon world demand for the goods it produces? Do you think that Euroland is going to be more stagflated than the US?
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das ist eine sehr erfreuliche Meldung.
Die bullions von PAAS haben den geringsten Spread und werden in einer privaten mint geprägt.
Sterling mining macht ja im kleinen auch schon sowas. Beschränkt sich aber nur auf etliche Orte im Silver valley in Idaho.
Mit diesen Silbermünzen kann man in vielen geschäften bezahlen.Pan American producing silver coins and bars for retail investors and to stimulate silver demand
Tuesday April 26, 9:00 am ETVANCOUVER, April 26 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ - Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS: NASDAQ; PAA: TSX) is pleased to announce that it has begun producing a new line of silver bullion products for its shareholders and other silver investors. The products comprise .999 pure silver coins and bars in one, five and ten ounce weights, featuring Pan American's trademark "silver hammer" and using silver supplied from Pan American's La Colorada mine in Mexico, one of the world's purest silver mines today.
The Pan American silver products will be minted at and exclusively available through Washington State-based Northwest Territorial Mint, one of the largest private mints in the United States. They will sell for $0.50 to $0.70 per ounce above the spot price of silver on the date of order, depending on volume, which is one of the lowest mark-ups for any silver coin or bar products available anywhere.Pan American Silver's Chairman, Ross Beaty, commented: "Silver is money, as it has been for millenia. These pure silver products will enable individuals and institutions to easily purchase Pan American's beautiful silver coins and bars for long term investment and enjoyment. Silver has always been important as a hedge against inflation and devaluation of paper currencies, and these Pan American "silver hammers" will, I hope, become industry-standard bullion products for silver investors for a long time to come. Silver is a wonderful and immensely useful metal and I am very pleased that we can provide our shareholders and other investors with an easy, inexpensive way to purchase silver directly from our purest silver mine."
The coins and bars can be ordered by calling the Northwest Territorial Mint at 1-800-344-6468 or from http://www.silverPA.com.
For further information contact:
Brenda Radies, VP Corporate Relations, (604) 684-1175 -
Unglaublich aber wahr, der HUI wird nach wie vor trotz hoeheren goldpreis geshorted
von dunklen maechten wie Yoyo sagt.gruss
XEX
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der Einfluß von Harmony und Goldfields auf den Hui sollte doch nicht unterschätzt werden.
Keine guten Aussichten für den Hui, solange der Rand die Goldies unter sich zerdrückt...
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Gold Takes Off As Dollar STRENGTHENS!!! / Desperate Cartel Criminals Maul Gold Shares
The mind has exactly the same power as the hands: not merely to grasp the world, but to change it...Colin Wilson
GO GATA!!!
When I woke up this morning I felt I was hallucinating what with gold up nearly $3 and the dollar flat. Too good to be true I thought. This is just what the doctor ordered to give more credence to my documented notions that the big bad bully Gold Cartel is on their way out due to their running out of available central bank supply to hold the gold price down.
Knowing The Gold Cartel would swing into action, I called my friend Tony Wilson in Toronto and told him to take a snapshot picture for that would probably be it for the day. We are like prisoners who have been let out of our cages to get 15 minutes of exercise. That’s it. Right back into our cells.
Sure enough. Gold was Fixed in London at $437 to satisfy increasing physical demand and then the bums went to work on gold and with their Hail Mary play for the DOW, which was down 50 points. Bing! Bang! Boom! The dollar suddenly rose quite a bit, gold was taken down and the market roared back to go up on the day. Why does the dollar rally every time it looks like our stock market is going to be hit hard?
Meanwhile, the gold shares which have gone on a total disconnect vis-à-vis bullion opened meekly higher. However, almost immediately they began to sell off – well before gold sold off with the rising dollar. That was this morning when the best laid plans of the cabal went awry!
Instead of collapsing, gold gradually worked its way right back up and closed on its high of the day made early in the session, even as the dollar stayed firm. At the close the euro gold price was 337. We have now watched the euro gold price break out and then accelerate to the upside. If MIDAS's long held opinion is correct, this is fabulous news as it means The Gold Cartel really is losing control of their rig.
The gold price explosion and the ruination of The Gold Cartel has to start sometime. Might as well be now. It would be the perfect time as almost no one out there is bullish gold in the short-term. We know that from the sentiment numbers, which as Hulbert noted are some of the lowest ever – just like the Café Sentiment Indicator was over the weekend.
As I have said for years, gold is the most misunderstood and worst reported on market in history. Seems to me only John Brimelow, myself, and of all people, Dennis Gartman, have been talking publicly about gold moving up without the benefit of a weak dollar. All the bullion dealer crowd talks about is gold moving up as the dollar weakens. Same with almost all the gold market commentators. One of the reasons is they refuse to deal with the fact that gold has been a rigged market for a decade. In recent years the bad guys have USED the dollar action to control gold’s ascent. A loss of this tool means they are losing control of their scam.
Yet, they won’t quit and are becoming more blatant in their maneuvers because of their desperation. These cowardly Mafiosos are no more than white collar thugs. What happening today with gold and the shares ought to have everyone one of you enraged. As gold ticked up 10 cents at a time in very quiet fashion, the crooks took the gold shares down in the same manner. Several colleagues and I could not believe what we were watching. They more gold would uptick the more the HUI and XAU would downtick.
There is no other explanation for today’s gold share action except a blatant attack by The Gold Cartel to demoralize gold share investors as they lose control of their scam. If anything, this should have been the most banner gold share day of all as the shares are already way undervalued to bullion. Then, the gold price rally in foreign currencies is a tremendous boon for holding down gold company costs which have soared. If there ever was a day for the shares to rocket, it was today – which is just why the crooks took them down.
Boy, this is disgusting, almost beyond words. Support Gold Rush 21 yet? Call your gold companies yet about attending our historic conference? If this doesn’t do it, nothing will.
Today was an off month gold option expiry on the Comex. There were 2804 May $430 calls outstanding, along with 3013 $435 calls and 3002 $440 calls. Who knows what kind of options might be lurking in the Over The Counter Market, which is huge compared to the Comex? The options are based on June gold which closed at $438.80. Will some huge player pull a wheat/corn and exercise the 440 calls tonight? Have no idea, yet it is a delicious thought.
The gold chart is a beauty. You would think the gold world would be in a bullish rave, yet, there is nary a peep out there. My guess is it is partly because the shares are so weak. The common (and historically reasonable) thinking is the shares will lead bullion, yet, instead, they are collapsing. That rationale was valid for a FREE gold market. This one is a fraud, a manipulated one. We can throw out measures used for many decades to analyze this particular market. All that matters are the creepy criminals losing control of their price manipulation scheme because they are running out of ammo. Other factors, such as a weak dollar, will fuel the coming gold price explosion, yet they will be secondary.
The gold chart is powerful. We got our breakaway gap today as $435.10 was the low of the session. Surely The Gold Cartel hit the shares as a warning to gold bulls. Whether their temper tantrum will work or not is another story. Tomorrow the GOLD WAR intensifies. The share battering was a warning they intend to attack tomorrow and fill/nullify today’s breakaway gap. However, we have the best laid plans and Murphy’s Law going for us. If gold takes out $440, the bums could be routed.
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Greenspan, Be Careful What You Wish For
Peter Schiff
posted April 26, 2005
Yesterday, [Apr 21] as Alan Greenspan warned Congress that the federal budget deficit is unsustainable, he simultaneously encouraged China to stop sustaining it. Since he has failed to forecast so many obvious looming economic problems in the past, such as the return of enormous budget deficits, resurgent inflation, and the real estate, stock, and bond market bubbles, it comes as no surprise that he also fails to realize that America's ability to finance its debt now teeters atop China's foolish currency peg. By encouraging China to remove it, Greenspan needs to be cautioned to be careful what he wishes for, as he just might get it.
In his testimony, Greenspan cautioned that "The federal budget is on an unsustainable path, in which large deficits result in rising interest," which in his opinion "would cause the economy to stagnate or worse" unless the situation were reversed.
However, he also commented that "Fixing the renminbi to the dollar is beginning to significantly work to the detriment of the Chinese economy." That in so doing China is "preventing the growth in the terms that would be most valuable for China in the decades ahead."With respect to floating the renminbi he offered the following advice; "So as far as I'm concerned, it is very much in their interest to move." He even added that "As you can imagine, we in U.S. government have been in conversations with them to indicate that, in our judgment and in our experience, they should be moving sooner rather than later. I have no way of projecting when they will move. That they will move, I am reasonably certain."
Hello, how clueless can one man possible be? By publicly advising China to float its currency, Greenspan is in effect asking the Chinese to do two things; 1) raise the prices that it charges Americans for the goods it sells them, and 2) stop buying hundreds of billions of dollars worth of U.S. Treasury bonds. While such a move would certainly benefit the Chinese, who would earn more for their exports and find more productive uses for their savings, it would clearly have the opposite effect for Americans, who would simultaneously be forced to pay both higher prices and interest rates. Most adversely effected would be the U.S. government itself, which would see the cost of financing its national debt skyrocket at the very moment recession would likely undermine its ability to pay. Talk about putting your head in a noose, throwing the rope over a three limb, and daring your adversary not to pull!
Greenspan is right that the status quo is a bad deal for China. At present, all that China it receives in return for much of its exports to America is inflation. Since America does not supply China with sufficient quantities of real goods in exchange for its exports, the Bank of China must expand its money supply to absorb all the excess dollars for which no American products are available. In the process it also purchases hundreds of billions of dollars worth of U.S. government securities. As a result the Chinese suffer a reduced standard of living, as they are forced to pay higher prices for consumer goods and squander a significant portion of their savings. Americans however, benefit greatly form China's sacrifice by enjoying artificially low consumer prices and interest rates.
If China were to follow Greenspan's advice, the result would be a one-two combination punch right to the chin of the U.S. economy. The left jab: By increases the cost of Chinese imports (and those from other Asian countries whose currencies would like rise along with the Renmimbi) the U.S. inflation rate, as measured by the CPI, would clearly rise, increasing the "inflation premium" required to be paid by the U.S. government on its outstanding debts, the majority of which have extremely short maturities, and thus will have to be re-issued at higher interest rates. Also the prices of non-Asian imports, such as oil, would also likely rise, as wealthier Asians bid them up. The right hook: Since the Chinese government would no longer be buying as many dollars, it would no longer need to buy as may U.S. treasuries. Given that higher consumer prices and interest rates would likely push the U.S. economy into recession, exacerbating the already enormous budget deficit, demand for U.S. debt would be reduced at the very time it was needed the most. The result, Knock out.
April 22, 2005
Peter Schiff -
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Today and tomorrow is positive day for metals and if they don't move up than big question mark for future outlook of metals. One can buy small quantity of metal stocks and metals here but keep stop loss because it looks like that overall negativity from Mercury is not favouring. Sign of disconnection with dollar is there but still not convincing one.
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He is back.....
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[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.harley-davidson-city.de/Fun/girl1.gif]
es gibt Börsentage,
die sind zum weglaufengruss
gogh
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A NASTY HUI WASH OUT DAY
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Männer, laßt den Kopf nicht hängen. Wir leiden doch zusammen und wir werden auch zusammen wieder jubilieren. Vergeßt nicht, daß der HUI von 40 Punkten kommt. Wir sind jetzt knapp unter 180. Auch in den 70er Jahren lief es doch nicht linear. Sachte kann man jetzt nachkaufen, wobei ich 150 im HUI ( a la Hook) nicht ausschließen will. Und paar Unzen kann man jetzt auch noch günstig einsammeln. Eine fortune werden auch in der Goldhausse nicht viele mache, in KEINER Hausse wird die Masse reich.
Nicht entmutigen lassen.
@ Eldo: Kennst du die 10-Tola-Barren von Harmony? Wo bezieht man die? Es gab mal welche bei einem Londoner Goldhändler.
Gruß
Lancelot
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