Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Lancelot

Weiss nicht wo du die barren bekommst. Es wuerde mich umhauen wenn der HUI unter 170 faellt. Falls dann aber nur fuer wenige tage.
Er muss sich morgen wieder erholen, ich habe die nackenstuetze schon mal drauf, sonst haengt mir echt der Kopf nach dem Hannibal Tag .

Gnight

XEX

House Approves $1 Gold Coin

Wednesday April 27, 2005 10:01 PM

By LAURIE KELLMAN

Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - The House on Wednesday approved a new gold-colored coin bearing the faces of presidents to join the unpopular $1 Sacagawea coin in circulation, hoping a new design will spur use of dollar coins.

By a 422-6 vote, the House approved a plan for the U.S. Mint to begin selling the coins early next year.

The bill also creates what would be the nation's first investment-grade 24-karat gold bullion coin. Intended for collectors, it would carry portraits of first ladies and a have a face value of $10 but sell for many times that amount at fluctuating prices based on the price of gold.

The new dollar coins would be the same shape, size and makeup of the gold-colored $1 coins now bearing the face of Sacagawea. The coins imprinted with her face would remain in circulation.

Sen. John Sununu, R-N.H., is expected to introduce a similar bill in the Senate.

The Sacagawea coin, named for the Lemhi Shoshone Indian who helped Lewis and Clark find their way to the Pacific Ocean, was introduced in 2000 but never caught on with the public.

Officials at the Mint estimate said the new $10 bullion coin could help the United States grab a bigger share of the global market in gold collector coins. They estimate that the potential world market for 24-karat gold coins is about $2.4 billion annually.

That market is dominated now by Australia, Austria, Canada, China, Singapore and Mexico, whose 24-karat coins account for about 60 percent of global gold coin sales.

Since 1986, the Mint has produced 22-karat American Eagle gold bullion coins for collectors in $50, $25, $10 and $5 denominations.

GOLD: CLOSE 4/2705: CASH GOLD: 433.00; JUNE GOLD 434.10

1. Please review my posting of April 13 regarding gold since it still holds true today.

2. On April 14th, cash gold went to a low of 421.70, in the upper range of the 415.00 to 422.00 mentioned in my posting of 4/13.

3. Since then, it went pretty much straight up to a high of 438.20 basis cash ( 439.1 basis June ) on April 26th.

4. At that point, on the daily momentum charts it was seriously overbought ( as was silver ) and had reached momentum points from which it usually gets turned back and I was very interested to see what kind of a correction would be coming up. As you well know, when the bull gets going, overbought can last for quite some time, even on the daily charts, with minor corrections, until the weekly gets also seriously overbought. As of tonight, the daily is still in overbought territory but all the other momentum periods are in neutral to oversold. What this means in the short term is that we may correct further down but I wouldn't expect a test of the recent lows of April 14th for a number of reasons which I will mention below.

5. I view the move from the April 14 low to the April 26 high as constructive, i.e. positive, which means that we should be correcting that move and then move higher.

6. The 50DMA on cash gold is 432.04 and the 200DMA 423.87, so we are sitting above both for now and I suspect the 200DMA +or- a few dollars would provide very strong support. This is all a technical plus.

7. I will write about the cash dollar index below but let me say, as it pertains to gold, that just as the daily momentums for gold were significantly in the overbought category yesterday, the daily cash dollar index momentums were seriously oversold and thus the pop up in this morning's market for the dollar index. However, my analysis is that the cash dollar index has relatively little upside and is running out of time ( don't forget the dollar has been correcting for almost 4 months now ) to put on a show since with every passing day, as explained in the comments above, the twin deficits keep rising ever higher. In my opnion, we are getting ever closer to the tipping point.

8. As mentioned in my posting of April 11, the demand for gold out of China is going to surpass anyone's expectations. On that score, it was reported in the People's daily, on April 22: " The China Gold Association ( CGA ) announced recently in Shanghai that the vocation of gold investment analyst had passed examination of the Ministry of Labor and Social Security and will become an authorized job shortly." It was also stated that: " About 700,000 people are working in approximately 10,000 gold ornaments shops across the country, constituting another footnote for the rapid growth of the industry."

9. The US stock market is correcting a previous downleg and will soon break its recent lows on the way to 1124 to 1127 basis cash S&P. As the market breaks down once more, this will be a bullish event for gold as the dollar will be under pressure and it will become ever clearer, even to the most naive, that the federal deficit is going to surpass last years by a good margin as receipts to the US Treasury drop off like a lead balloon.

10. In conclusion, the gold bull market is intact and is destined for much higher prices. My sense is that all major economic indicators to be released forthwith will show greater weakness than expectations, bearish for the dollar, bullish for gold and silver. Friday we get the Chicago PMI, and next week will be a barn burner: Monday, ISM Manufacturing Index, Tuesday the Fed meeting on interest rates, and Friday the Unemployment Report.

SILVER: CLOSE 4/27/05 CASH SILVER: 7.14; MAY SILVER: 7.135; ALL PRICES BELOW BASIS CASH SILVER

1. As I mentioned above, the daily momentums of silver were seriously overbought in the last few days and a correction was to be expected. This happened just as the option expiry for May silver occurred on April 26 and the First Notice Day is this Friday for May silver - we all know what usually happens during this time period.

2. As I have mentioned on numerous occasions, silver is not mentioned once on either Bloomberg or CNBC - it just doesn't exist. I view this as extremely bullish for this previous metal.

3. The 50DMA stands at 7.235 and the 200DMA at 6.97 so silver is right in the middle of these moving averages.

4. I have two technical analysis on silver:

i. One is extremely bullish after we relieve this daily overbought momentum condition.

ii. The other is also bullish but allows for more time before we launch upwards.

In both cases, we are going to 9.00 to 9.12 minimum.

5. I'm a buyer should silver drop between 6.80 tol 7.04.

6. A look at the weekly chart shows a huge wedge formation since March 2004 which I expect will be resolved by a take out to the upside.

It's getting quite late once more and I like to be up early for the european markets. You already have an idea of my view of the stock market and the cash dollar index which I referred to above. I will discuss both tomorrow ( I promise ) in greater detail along with crude oil. All the pieces are falling into place.To those who have emailed me, I will contact you shortly.

Wishing you successful investing,

Michel de Chabert-Ostland

Goldpreisprognose für 2005. GFMS rechnet mit Preisen bis 500 $

LONDON - Gold prices may punch above 16-1/2-year peaks achieved last December on renewed investor buying this year, precious metals consultancy GFMS said on Thursday.

GFMS said in its Gold Survey 2005 that dollar weakness and twin U.S. deficits might see prices march towards $500 per ounce, which was last seen in 1987.
"I think we’re reasonably sure that we will see a $470 or $480 target price with a distinct possibly of a pop to $500," GFMS chairman Philip Klapwijk told Reuters.
The consultancy said world gold investment, which fell in 2004 to less than 300 tonnes, was set to surge again after recovering strongly in the second half of last year.
"It may seem odd to claim investment was a key driver (last year) when we had implied net disinvestment and a price rise.
But timing was crucial," Klapwijk said in a statement launching the survey.

"The selling we saw early/mid year was in large measure just a bout of modest profit taking on the huge position built in 2003 and early 2004," he added.
Bullion shot to its highest since June 1988 in December at $456.75 — with dollar weakness against the euro seen as the dominant driver as it made the metal more attractive for non-U.S. investors.

GFMS expected a positive investment climate to persist in 2005 despite a lukewarm performance by bullion prices so far this year, with fund flows into commodities seen lifting gold.
Bullion is currently trading just above $430.
"The scale of fund investment in commodities is still tiny compared to other, mainstream, assets such as stocks and bonds, which, conversely, are unlikely to perform well this year given the high probability that economic growth slows and inflation picks up a little further," the report said.
The survey noted robust jewellery fabrication in the face of higher prices, with double-digit gains posted in key markets including India, Turkey and China.
"Looking to this year, 2005 has started brightly, confirming that many price sensitive markets have acclimatised to dollar prices in the $420-$435 region," it said.

Middle East demand was also expected to figure in the mix for physical demand, particularly if economic conditions were further fuelled by high oil prices and a slackening of geo-political tensions.
Global mine output, which fell five percent in 2004 to an eight-year low of 2,464 tonnes, was seen recovering four percent in 2005 to 2,570 tonnes.
"Stripping activities, unfavourable weather conditions, operational delays and mine closures strongly contributed to the largest drop in annual mine output since 1943," the report said of last year’s slide.
Official sector sales were seen increasing to 500 or even 550 tonnes in 2005 after dropping back last year, Klapwijk said.
"But, it looks like 250 or so tonnes have already been sold in the first quarter (of 2005) and that’ll take a huge amount of pressure off prices," he added.
Much of last year’s official sales were attributed to Europe’s Central Bank Gold Sales Agreement, which limits official disposals by its signatories. But opportunistic selling on higher bullion prices had been noted, GFMS said.
Producer buy backs — another key factor behind rising gold prices — were expected to continue after reaching a record of just over 440 tonnes in 2004, with global de-hedging forecast at between 280 and 330 tonnes this year.

Quelle: http://www.businessday.co.za/a…markets.aspx?ID=BD4A40251

Merowinger

This is exactly my opinion too

Zitat

Original von Eldorado
House Approves $1 Gold Coin

Officials at the Mint estimate said the new $10 bullion coin could help the United States grab a bigger share of the global market in gold collector coins. They estimate that the potential world market for 24-karat gold coins is about $2.4 billion annually.

Stell Dir vor, die produzieren so viele Münzen, und keiner will se

Die Amis sind sicher die ersten, die die Legierung unbemerkt zu strecken versuchen Da laß ich doch lieber die Finger von, von diesen Schurkenstaaten kauf ich keine Münzen :))

@ Fisiko

Lieber kaufe ich einen Panda
Diese Schurken

hui hui die kerze vom silberchart heute schaut fürchterlich aus

Petzi du freust dich immer wenn die preise fuer gold und silber fallen.
Das weiss mittlerweile jeder, ist schon ok wenn du dollar fan bist,einer muss es ja sein.
So und nun schau dir wieder die kerzen an,die brennen heute ganz fuerchterlich hell. Muss ja zweite Weihnachten fuer dich sein.

Gleich brennt der Christbaum ab mit dem ganzen Silber und Gold Kugeln bzw. Lametta.

Na Petzi,
du hast es heute mit den Kerzen.
Hast schon ein paar ausblasen dürfen beim Kindergeburtstag?

Blitzer oder Blitzgneißer???

Tschonko

ich hab auch allen grund mich zu freuen ich sag das ja schon die ganze zeit vorraus und wen die vorhersage eintrifft ist es wunderbar.

aber man muss auch zu gegebener zeit dann auf die andere seite wechseln... später

blitzer und blitzgneißer sind das auch wieder würste @ tschonko

@ Petzi

Sei mal genauer mit deinen Vorraussagen nicht nur etwas in den Raum schmeissen.

Du hast geschrieben:

heutiger schlußkurs unter 422$ dann ist das nächste ziel 410$ und ich glaube nicht das wir dann unten sind
fortsetzung folgt .......end

Na wann kommt die Fortsetzung ?

So wo ist der Tiefkurs von Gold, Silber, HUI, XAU ???

Das waere mal interessant zu wissen, wenn du recht hast dann gebe ich dir einen Stern, ok ?

Lebende Foren Legende hoert sich so und so deppert an.
Noch lebe ich, bei 175 HUI ! oder 10bar

Gerade noch auf Schnorcheltiefe !

Gruss

Eldorado

Würstel Petzi,
Würstel.

falls ich mit den goldanalysen weitermachen soll schreibs mir in dem sräd mal sehen was die anderen dazu sagen ich will ja keinen mit meinem pesimismus aus dem forum verjagen

@ tschonko ich steh mehr auf fleisch als auf würstel...

Einen echten Gold und Silberbull kannst du eh nicht verjagen, lieber Petzi

Keine Sorge, ich will auch keinen verjagen mit dem hier,der index soll mal runter gehen, dann steigt wieder gold !

Darauf warte ich schon lange ! :))

Und so warte ich weiter !

XEX

DERIVATIVES have been the fastest growing area in US> finance over the past 15 years. The numbers involved are truly mind boggling. About 25% of the Derivative instruments in existence are Exchange traded items such as futures and options. The other 75% are Over-the-Counter instruments, privately created and traded between major financial institutions. These tend to be extremely complicated transactions that are often difficult to value. They rely heavily on their counter parties in these transactions actually meeting their obligations when they fall due.

There is a grave risk of counter party failure in the Over-the-Counter derivative area. If one major counter party goes bankrupt and fails to meet its commitments, it could trigger a domino like collapse of major institutions in the financial markets. The numbers involved are so vast that there is potential to bring down the entire financial system in the event of a major counter party default.

If this risk is readily discernible to outsiders, then bankers and others involved in the OTC derivatives must be acutely aware of the problem. Bankers are not stupid. They are extremely clever, cautious people. So how could they allow the OTC derivative situation to grow to such a massive extent with all the concomitant risks involved?

[U]One suspects that they know something we don’t. Do the major players in the market have some assurance that there will be no counter party failure? Without that assurance, the gigantic build up of OTC derivatives over the past decade would surely have been unthinkable. Alternatively, they must have deliberately built up the derivative market without considering the size or risks involved on the assumption that, as with past similar cases, the Federal Reserve and Federal Government would combine and to come to the rescue of a failed major counter party.

The OTC derivative market looks like an accident waiting to happen. Already some lesser players are showing signs of strain. How do the authorities rescue a problem situation when it occurs? Again by creating electronic US Dollar credits to the extent necessary to prevent a catastrophe.

The common thread that runs through this brief summary is that when problems emerge in the US> financial system, the authorities will solve them [/U]This is not just a personal opinion. We have been told by no lesser personage than Dr Ben S Bernanke, who is a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Board, that the authorities now have a new tool, the electronic printing press, which will be utilised when disasters threaten.

When the supply of something is increased sharply relative to demand, the value of that commodity will decline. If the supply continues to increase rapidly and indefinitely, then that item will become worth less and less, with the potential to finally become nearly worthless. This is the Developing Disaster facing the US Dollar and the world. This is the factor that could become the single most important criterion in investment allocation decisions and possibly even for individual financial survival.

When that point is reached, the headline to this article: “The objective of investing is to increase the purchasing power of capital,” will become ever more pertinent.

We can now return to the final factor, the 7th “D”, which is DEVOLUTION. Dictionary definitions of the word DEVOLUTION include the following:

A passing down or descent through successive stages of time or a process.
Transference, as of rights or qualities, to a successor.
Delegation of authority or duties to a subordinate or substitute.
A transfer of powers from a central government to local units.
It is the first definition that is applicable here. Imagine an inverted pyramid of various investment type assets where the least secure (and most prolific assets) are in the very wide top layers. The inverted pyramid then narrows down through layers of increasingly more secure asset classes to the small point at the base which consists of the most secure (and least prolific) assets. This is an idea propagated years ago by John Exter.

The theory is that in times of financial crisis investors will cause their investments to devolve downwards (hence DEVOLUTION) through the different asset class layers in the inverted pyramid as they search for greater security. DEVOLUTION is thus a movement by investors out of riskier, speculative asset classes into more secure ones. This is what can be expected in the months and years ahead as the creation of electronic US Dollar credits gathers momentum and faith is lost in the US Dollar.

The assets in the most secure category at the tip of the inverted pyramid are gold and silver bullion, assets that have performed the function of protecting wealth throughout the ages. In the layer above the precious metals lie the companies that mine and hold large deposits of gold and silver. The least secure assets in the envisioned environment, which form the broad layers at the top of the inverted investment pyramid, will be the electronic US Dollar credits and assets or loans that are repayable in US dollars.

The DEVOLUTION of assets into more secure investments is not just an esoteric theory. It is already happening and can be observed in the actions of thinking investors such as Warren Buffett, possibly the greatest investor of the past century. Buffett has been gradually moving the assets of his investment company, Berkshire Hathaway, into increasingly more secure asset classes. He made headlines last year when he moved over $20 billion out of US Dollar cash assets into foreign currencies.

Buffett already has a stash of silver bullion, so is clearly aware of the protective power of precious metals. It is only one short further step for Buffett to move out of foreign currencies (which will eventually follow the path of the US Dollar) into gold bullion and precious metal mining company shares, a move that seems logical and inevitable in the circumstances envisioned above.

A move into precious metals and their associated mining companies by a person like Buffett would instantly change the public perception of this asset class. If it is not Buffett, it will be someone else, as the logic of doing this will become increasingly apparent to investors. Then the devolution of investments down through the asset classes of the inverted pyramid will truly gather momentum. The quantity of precious metals and their associated mining company shares is very limited while the quantity of electronic US Dollar credits is infinite. It will be a question of “first come, first served”.

Alf Field

28 April 2005

wer oder was ist alf field, ich kenn nur alfred und der ist ein ekel

Petzi kennst den nicht ?... das ist der komische Nasenbaer vom der serie im fernsehen !

Sieht er Dir aehnlich ??