Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

PUT mach die frida beim eierlegen, das ist die beste legehenne die die oma je hatte.

und die 160 wird kommen...sag mir lieber den hebel zwischen hui und goldpreis

@ Goldy

Selbst wenn ich Dir den Hebel sage,der nur eine grobe Richtlinie ist, weisst du damit nichts anzufangen.
Rechne mal doppelt, bei HUI 160 waere Gold bei ca. 380 USD.
Da muesste der Dollar um 16% steigen,so mal grob gerechnet.
Bei 1.10 USD/Euro koennte dann der HUI bei 185 sein.
Bei Gleichstand koenntes du fast auf die 160 kommen aber das bleibt nur eine Vision von Dir.

XEX

Gold Charts R Us
The bloodletting times are behind us
Harry Schultz snippet
Aug 22, 2005

Unless I'm looking through the wrong end of this telescope, the Big Picture for gold stocks is pretty easy to describe this week. At least easier than usual. The consolidation led to an upside breakout, as I said was barely starting to happen as I wrote the PS lastime, & as I shorted the US$ & bought the euro on that pending mini-trigger. Thereafter, gold did indeed break out from the 440-445 holding zone, raced up to 455 (basis Dec futures) & began evolving into its new stature. Which is: the bloodletting times are behind us for gold shares (thank heaven) but not fully evolved into a new & major bull leg. Yet, that seems an almost bankable assurance.

••• Gold is testing its peak of last March at 456-459. All such tests take time to evolve, so we use this moment to plan our strategy, "knowing" that the wind is starting to catch our sails. We can loosen our stops a bit to give stocks a bit more breathing room. We can buy into mini dips (via individual charts) & plan to double up on breakouts of either patterns or resistance price levels. This is a no-stress moment, which we richly deserve.

•••• Yet it doesn't mean we can let our guard down entirely as U can see from the Schultz Gold Stocks Advance/Decline Line which amazingly shows continued sideways action! The sun doesn't shine on flowers in the shade. While the robust golds are rising & looking good, a lot are not rising, meaning the average gold is simply standing still! That's why we keep deleting the underperformers in GCRU & adding (or bringing forward from the back pages) those that perform nicely. That's part of what U pay for in case U didn't realize it. And if U continue to hold weak stks, then don't expect a brilliant bottom line. It's easiest to prune by gradually selling off chunks of the weak & putting those funds into the better performers.

•••• Our Keeper of the Spinner keys, Paul, says: "Most Spinner lines are in a steadfast bull mode, with blue confirming lines rising above zero, but red timing lines at or nearing overbought extremes - which opens window for backfilling/shorterm consolidation phase." So there!

••• The Schultz Gold Index (SGI), gold's Nasdaq, indicates higher highs possible but unlikely to see mega moves while the SGS A/D Line remains in sideways drift. But I don't think that will last much longer.

•••• Silver needs a rise over 7.40 to underpin gold's breakout move. A close at 7.25 would probably bring in preemptive strike buyers.

••• To cover all bases, I must say: this evolving moment must see gold hold over 438-430 on dips to maintain its bullish momentum.

••••• Non-US$ currencies are all of a different hue! 3 Their overall color is yellow to green. Euro broke up, now pulling back a touch. Ditto SwFr, maybe will make a R/H&S. £ raced to 181.60, will probably move sideways for 2wks to make a right shoulder. Yen broke out, shocking all the shorts, looks positive, may dip a hair to .91. C-$ broke out of R/H&S, headed much higher, is best of the pack. A$& NZ$ both in strong uptrends but now face overhead supply If A$ tops .775, could streak to the moon. Even Mars. And the US$ index itself is correcting upside from its recent 3 wks fall. Is a short or re-short on rally to 88 +/- IMO. This is not a currency advisory letter, but I throw these comments in to give U the flavour of the forces that affect gold.

••• CRB is correcting, probably to 307-308.

•••• I covered my 10-year note short at nice profit & now searching place to re-short.

••• Copper to new high.

••••• Merrill Lynch's 8/15 Precious Metals Calendar quality analysis says "Gold stocks valuations are pricey, but not excessive in view of likely higher bullion prices ahead, longterm" which they foresee. They say: "Since July 18, the S&P/TSX Gold Index has risen some 11%, on the back of a 6.0% move (to a 5-month high of $446/oz) for bullion. Gold equities have traditionally enjoyed a period of 'seasonal strength' from mid-summer to mid-autumn (with average returns of 24% & 9.4% for gold equities & bullion in 15 of last 17 years)."

••• Best looking golds in the glitter beauty contest: Anglo American again, Cameco maybe, FNX-T maybe, Gammon Lake, Meridian Gold, Rio Tinto again & forever (?), Teck Cominco maybe, Virginia Gold again, Yamana maybe. With so many good contestants, U can see why I say the gold Big Picture seems clear, & rosy. Certainly no ocean of top patterns as we saw in the dark ages, months ago. So eat (healthy stuff) drink (bottled water) & make merry, for 'tomorrow' we may see the kingdom of $500 gold & beyond. ·

••• Oh, one last thing. My friend Chick Goslin [email :: website] confirms what I have long said here, but not lately, so worth reiterating & getting his take. He analyzed his own trading for last year & found he had made profits of over 7 figures (over a mil) but that the overwhelming majority of trades were via taking profits of only $1000 to $1,500 per futures contract (in crude complex have to adjust this number up). Is risky when U try to maximize profits. Or using the area of 100 to 150% of margin profit works out very well. Many times when I do this, price will keep moving after I get out at this profit level, but when I hold onto a token number of contracts to try to maximize profits on those, am surprised by how many times I will end up getting out at same or worse profit than those where took profits at lower levels." This applies to stocks as well as futures. Take modest but acceptable profits as U go. An alternative is moving stops up VERY tight after U have reached that minimum profit target, & keep moving up. I tend to take the profit, via a fixed order price, which sometimes is an intraday high not seen again. Or I sell at the open if I liked the closing price & fear it may not hold there. But U can use a mixture of tactics, not the same in all situations.

Bye from here.
Uncle Harry

http://www.321gold.com/editori…z/schultz082205_gcru.html

Seit 2001 lagen die Jahrestiefs am Goldmarkt jeweils höher
als das vorangegangene, womit der langfristige Aufwärtstrend
bisher bestätigt wurde. Dies gilt ebenso für den Gold Bugs-
Index (HUI), dessen Mai-Tief mit 165 Punkten knapp oberhalb
des Tiefstkurses aus dem Jahre 2004 erreicht wurde.
Davon hat sich der HUI inzwischen nicht nur weit entfernt,
inzwischen wurde mit dem Überschreiten der 200-Tage-Linie
und dem Break des mittelfristigen Abwärtstrends am 3. August
ein mittelfristiges Kaufsignal ausgelöst.
Aus markttechnischer Sicht ist nunmehr der Weg bis zum
nächsten ernst zu nehmenden Widerstand bei 240 Punkten
frei. Dann steht der Test der 256er-Marke an, womit die Lage
weiterhin spannend bleiben wird. Ein Überschreiten der Marke
von 256 Punkten würde die Langfrist-Hausse bestätigen
und wäre gleichzeitig als langfristiges Kaufsignal zu interpretieren.

HUI 16X nochmal in diesem Jahr ist lächerlich. Wer so etwas verzapft hat echt keine Ahnung.....auch wenns ein Guru ist.......

Guruguru machen in den Asterix-Heften auch die Truthähne bei "Die grosse Überfahrt"....

valueman

Sehe ich auch so.
Grugru putput jo mei wir ham an hai.

kannst du mir nich na einfache zahl geben bitte

205+160-160 = ???
Das nimmst du mal 2 und teilst es wieder durch 2.05 um ca. auf den jetzigen Wert zu kommen.

Zitat Pro Aurum:

Zitat

Die neuesten Zahlen an der New Yorker Futuresbörse Comex mahnen zur Vorsicht. So erhöhten die spekulativ orientierten Fonds in der Woche zum 16.August ihre Longpositionen um weitere 40.784 Kontrakte a 100 Unzen auf nunmehr 163.047 Kontrakte. Somit sitzen die Fonds auf rund 507 Tonnen des gelben Metalls. Die so genannten kleinen Spekulanten kauften ebenfalls kräftig zu und sind nunmehr 23.365 Kontrakte long. Dagegen halten die kommerziellen Marktteilnehmer eine recht hohe Shortposition von mehr als 200.000 Kontrakten. In der Regel behalten diese kommerziellen Kräfte die Oberhand. Die spekulativen Kräfte waren in der Vergangenheit oft zur Liquidierung ihrer Positionen gezwungen und erlitten dabei heftige Verluste. Diese Zahlen sind der Auslöser für die leichte Korrektur unserer Strategie. Wir reduzieren also heute unsere Goldbestände, um sie nach erfolgtem Kursrückgang wieder günstiger einzudecken.

Die Frage ist, ab wo man wieder einsteigt. Ich denke nicht, dass wir den 420er Support sehen werden, eher 428-430, aber angesichts der spekulativen Positionen koennte im Ernstfall auch der 420er brechen, was m.E. lukrative Einstiegskurse fuer Langfristengagements boete.

Wird spannend!

Petro China übernimmt petrokazakhstan (PKZ).
PKZ stieg darauf auf ca 44€.
Ich hab die Mitte Mai zu 21 gekauft und einen monat später zu 26,? verkauft. Auch ärgerlich.

Ein wichtiger Schritt für die Chinesen zur Ölversorgung bzw. Absicherung.
Und ein weiteres Signal, was sie mit den $´s tun.
Venezuela, Peru, Argentinien sind weitere Gebiete, wo sie schon sehr aktiv sind. In Bezug auf Basismetalle.
Da ist einiges zum Abholen, wenn man auf die richtigen Pferdchen setzt.
Und nicht vorher verkauft

Grüße
Tschonko

Ich sage ja die ganze Zeit die Schachspieler von Cinesen kaufen still und heimlich ganz gemuetlich Rohstoffe und Minen auf der Welt mit dem Fiat Dollar. Die sind ja nicht bloed und kaufen tangibles assets weil sie wissen der geht baden.

Aber wann genau weiss niemand ???

Mfg

XEX

@edelman,
hatten wir doch erst neulich. Pinnacle (war das nicht bei den juniors)
massive chinesische Interessen,
ebenso CDY

Strategisch war das schon 1. Sahne mit PKZ
Mit dem Bild ist es auch klar, warum USA in Afghanistan war und IRAN im Blickfeld...
Du als Strategeme Kenner........
Holzbrücken aufbauen...........und schon ganz woanders stehen

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.russia4u.de/kaspi/kaspi-map.gif]

Ja man moechte sich gerne nach Ost und West von Irak ausbreiten so wie ich die Amis kenne. Kostet aber in fuenf Jahren ca. 1.3 trillionen Dollar, pro Jahr 11,500-00 USD per Haushalt und viele Tote und Verletzte im Namen von Texaco und Chevron.

Seize Gold,
Silver--and Everything Else, GATA Says

Business Editors

MANCHESTER, Conn.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 22, 2005--The
U.S. Government has the authority to prohibit the private possession of gold and silver coin and bullion by U.S.
citizens during wartime, and, during wartime and declared emergencies, to freeze their ownership of shares of mining companies, the Treasury Department has told the Gold
Anti-Trust Action Committee.

But gold and silver owners aren't alone in such jeopardy.
For the U.S. Government claims the authority in declared emergencies to seize or freeze just about everything
else that might be considered a financial instrument.

The Treasury Department's assertions came in a letter
to GATA dated August 12 and written by Sean M. Thornton,
chief counsel for the department's Office of Foreign Assets Control, who replied to questions GATA posed to the
department in January. It took GATA six months and some
prodding to get answers from the Treasury, but the
Treasury's reply, when it came, was remarkably
comprehensive and candid.

The government's authority to interfere with the
ownership of gold, silver, and mining shares arises,
Thornton wrote, from the Trading With the Enemy Act, which became law in 1917 during World War I and applies during declared wars, and from 1977's International Emergency
Economic Powers Act, which can be applied without
declared wars.

While the Trading With the Enemy Act authorizes the
government to interfere with the ownership of gold and
silver particularly, it also applies to all forms of
currency and all securities. So the Treasury official
stressed in his letter to GATA that the act could be
applied not just to shares of gold and silver mining
companies but to the shares of all companies in which
there is a foreign ownership interest.

Further, there is no requirement in the law that the
targets of the government's interference must have some connection to the declared enemies of the United States,
nor even some connection to foreign ownership. Anything
that can be construed as a financial instrument, no matter
how innocently it has been used, is subject to seizure
under the Trading With the Enemy Act and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

Having just gone through a controversy about a Supreme
Court decision about government's power of eminent
domain, most Americans may be surprised to learn that the Trading With the Enemy Act and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act could expropriate them instantly
and far more broadly without any of the due process
extended to parties in eminent domain cases. All that is
needed is a presidential proclamation of an emergency
of some kind -- and of course Americans lately have
been living in a state of perpetual emergency.

When the Trading With the Enemy Act was passed in
1917, gold and silver formed part of the official
currency of the United States and were essential to
ordinary commerce, so perhaps an argument could be
made then against "hoarding," even if "hoarding" could
not be well defined. That is no longer the case; the
United States has officially disavowed gold and silver
as money and they no longer have a meaningful role in
commerce. (GATA is working on that.) So gold and silver investors may want to ask their members of Congress to
seek repeal of the statutes that give the government
the authority to interfere with the private ownership
of gold and silver, emergencies or not.

And ordinary citizens with no particular interest in
gold and silver may want to ask their members of Congress
to reconsider these statutes simply for being wildly
tyrannical.

GATA's correspondence with the Treasury Department is
posted on the Internet here:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/3276