Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Zitat

Original von Aladin
Edel Man

Und unser Guru Goldy wuerde immer noch schreien es geht weiter runter bei den Preisen.
Ist schon ein Hammer wie Silber gefallen ist.
Wenn ich mehr Moos haette wuerde ich Physisch oder Calls kaufen.
Die 200 HUI haben bis jetzt gehalten mehr erwarte ich gar nicht unter den Druck den die GM Aktien haben im Moment.
Am besten wir machen alle eine grosse Pause und schauen mitte September wieder auf die Aktien und POG/POS.

Have a nice weekend

Gruss

XAX

Alles anzeigen

schau nich immer auf den intradaychart der juckt doch nich, er muss über 213 schliessen um long zu sein

eldo war machen die optionen

@ Goldy

What we saw yesterday not only was disgusting, but extremely ominous. The US financial market system, after years of market manipulation, is about to become unhinged, unglued. The net worth of the average American will take hits like they haven’t seen since the 1987 crash and eventually could resemble something similar to what occurred in 1929. Most likely not that disastrous in fact, but will feel that way to many.

Much of what MIDAS and a number of other Café contributors have brought to you attention is now quickly coming to pass. At the center of the nightmare for Joe and Jane American is the rigging of the gold price. We all know about Reg Howe’s Gibson’s Paradox and the relationship between US interest rates and the price of gold. Had gold been allowed to trade freely, the price of gold would be hundreds of dollars higher, perhaps even $500 per ounce higher. US interest rates would be much, much higher too.

The US stock market would be much lower and the US real estate market would never have reached the bubble stages it has now. The major problem for US stock market/real estate investors is they have made investment decisions based on an illusion, based on enormous market manipulations which have created an atmosphere, or perception, that little can go wrong; one in which fear has been taken out of the market equation; and one which has encouraged the taking of investment risks they would not have taken had US financial markets (especially gold) been left to trade freely.

What we saw today in the US financial markets, along with the accompanying news, strongly suggests the "S" is quietly hitting the fan. The Orwellians, The Gold Cartel, the Washington power structure, and the bigwigs on Planet Wall Street are petrified by what they see on the horizon in the VERY near future. Surely, this is one of the reasons the Fed will be meeting with the largest 14 credit derivatives players on September 15.

What other explanation could there be for their manic defense of $440 gold? Gold came in steady this morning. When the cabal would not let gold rise along with a sinking dollar, the funds puked their longs, taking spot down to $435.20. The trade turned massive buyer and within 15 minutes gold was up 50 cents on the day, eventually rising to $440 bid on the bulliondesk. Gold would have never traded this way in years gone by. Something is different here. That’s when the crooks attacked again, taking gold right back down to up slightly on the day.

Meanwhile, the cabal forces continued working silver over, breaking it down completely from a technical viewpoint. It is one of the worst looking charts you will ever see. But, how strange. The silver fundamentals are as firm as ever and the prices of oil and copper are at all-time highs. The CRB is right off its multi-decade high. Don’t know how the cabal is engineering this silver take down, but they have inducing specs to load up on the short side in the process. Yesterday’s open interest rose a sizeable 3833 contracts to 121,671.

Once again the funds long gold, seeing the cap The Gold Cartel put on the price, began to dump their longs, especially after noticing how silver was crumbling. After all, if a market is not allowed to go up, then why be long? Thus, in typically inspired Gold Cartel fashion, gold sold off very late on a Friday afternoon after trading higher for 90% of the day. However, the price bent. It did not break, as the trade showed up on the buy side, as they have done for days on setbacks.

What does all this mean?

The powers mentioned above are scared to death to let gold rise above their defense point because they fear it could set off derivatives neutron bombs in both the gold and credit markets. At the same time, the trade shorts are very nervous to remain that way for much longer. The gold fundamentals become more positive by the day. The bad guys are having trouble coming up with enough physical gold to meet demand and it is having an impact on how they operate.

No sense repeating what MIDAS has presented all week. Gold remains in explosive mode. What the cabal is doing can be compared to a kid trying to keep a rubber ball under water. It won’t work for any length of time. There is too much pressure for the price to rise, and to do so substantially.

As mentioned yesterday, gold will not just blissfully rise above this $440 level, like a normal, free market would. It will either fail, or blow through it. A close near $439 today would have been ideal. The Gold Cartel knew that might lead to panic trade short-covering by Monday, so they called out reinforcements nearing the Comex bell to take gold down and make a gold price explosion through $440 less likely Monday morning.

Perhaps The Gold Cartel can blow out all the specs and take gold down to $420 like the mob thinks. I doubt it. My bet is sometime soon the dam breaks and the price of gold streaks towards $500 per ounce.

The gold open interest rose 4444 contracts to 330,070 as the cabal crowd increased its defense of $440.

Silver makes no sense. It probably is as good a value buy here, especially as to what other commodity related prices are doing, than at any time in history. My guess is that this is an engineered false breakdown that will not last long at all. Once silver takes out $6.85, it will streak for $8.

The dollar was weak most of the day until near the end. Oddly enough, perhaps predictably enough would be more appropriate, I could find no plausible reason for the dollar strength, as the news was bearish. The dollar closed at 87.83, up .27.

The John Brimelow Report

Could be time to buy silver
Friday, August 26, 2005

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $3.40, PM $2.67, with world gold at $437.75 and $438.55. Ample, and quite adequate, for legal imports. The world’s largest bullion importer is a solid buyer at these prices. This is a problem for the Bears.

Perhaps even more so in silver. Ex-duty premiums in silver this morning were 9c and 20c, with world silver at $6.84 both times. Adequate and lavish, for legal imports. If silver trades in the low $6.70s on Monday (as it appears to be closing in NY), this will intensify. It may be recalled that when silver briefly traded in the $6.40s in early January, dealers were flying the metal into India, an event which happens less than once a decade. MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus for silver was 57% last night – presumably it will be down again today. The low in January was 51%. The technical situation is of course absolutely gruesome – that is of no interest to the Indian consumer. A useful trade may be developing: IN THE TWO MONTHS AFTER THE JANUARY LOW THIS YEAR, SILVER ROSE ALMOST 20%.

Japan was comatose. Volume slumped 47% to only 7,069 Comex equivalent and open interest was static – down 605 Comex equivalent to equal 97,449 NY contracts. Mitsubishi’s data implies only a 0.6 tonne (20 Comex) addition to the "General Public"’s long. The active contract was down 6 yen, although world gold went out $1.70 above the NY close – no doubt reflecting buying from further west in Asia as the day wore on.

On silver, though, Mitsubishi reports bargain- hunting by the public and implies the "General Public" added 32.8% to their long – 787 Comex lots.

On Thursday in NY of course an apparently half hearted attempt on $440 was promptly suppressed and reversed. In fact, this effort was more serious than met the eye: on volume of only 28,236 lots open interest soared 4,444 contracts – 13.8 tonnes – to 330,070, almost back to the recent high. Gold finished up 90c. Apparently a serious buyer met a serious seller in a quiet, but definitely not a thin market.

On Friday morning, an effort to drive gold down (including in Euros) around 10 AM NY time was decisively blocked. This kind of action, and India, bodes ill for the Bears.

JB

A second look at the USD and Canadian Dollar.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/brodrick082605.html

Hoerte mir gerade auf Goldradio den Analysten Lou Paquette an.
Er sagte das die Zentralbanken 6 tonnen mehr Gold verkauft haben als abgemacht (506t), sowie ab September der Markt fuer Schmucknachfrage in Asien beginnt. Wenn man sich vorstellt das eine hoehere Nachfrage nun kommt und weniger Angebot von Zentralbanken und sogar Minen ist er ueberzeugt das bis zum Jahresende Gold sehr gut steigen wird.

Mir scheint, einige Leute hier machen sich völlig verrückt und glotzen den ganzen Tag nur noch auf die Kursbewegungen von Gold und Silber.

Ich warte ganz gemütlich ab, genieße den Anstieg meiner Short-Zertifikate und setzte wieder auf steigende Kurse, wenn die Zeit gekommen ist.
So einfach geht das.

Dieses Jahr rechne ich nur noch mit 'einem' einzigen zyklischen Anstieg der Edelmetalle. Dann muß man wieder rein.

'thobaffin' wünscht viele Grüße und ein schönes Wochenende ohne Gold-Stress!

If you want to hit the ball you got to watch it Buffin.
To watch and see what's going on is definately not stress.
Out time will come, its just a matter of time.
Geduld und Glauben muss man haben, das ist alles.

Mfg

XAX

Dear Members,

Planetary alignment for the last three months has been such that only a handful of people made any money. It has been a very unclear period. However, I am much more upbeat with regard to the next phase which will start in September. This has been an eagerly awaited stage since I am confident that most of my members shall make a fortune. I have no doubt that this phase shall result in some very positive outcomes; let us therefore be ready for it and always remember that you are trading by the "WAVE OF NATURE".

While I was predicting the ECONOMIC, SOCIAL and POLITICAL collapse of the USSR from 1988 to 1991, very few people believed me. As a matter of fact, most media houses refused to print my article and were quite prompt to show me the way out of their offices. However, I never ceased proclaiming what I knew to be an impending reality. Similarly, as those who have been closely following my work are aware, I am predicting a bursting of the Chinese economy bubble at the end of 2005 or in 2006. I shall include more details in my 2006 book about how the world will take shape financially as well as what one should trade in during 2006.

A MAJOR FALL IN SEVERAL COMMODITIES AS WELL AS THE STOCK MARKET IS ON THE WAY. I CAN SEE, FEEL AND HEAR THE APPROACHING WAVE OF A GREAT CRASH.

For now, let me cut short so that we can see what this week says:

PREDICTIONS FOR 29 AUGUST TO 2 SEPTEMBER:

GOLD

Gold is in the full grip of nature’s wave and that is why the predicted high and low price targets for this year have been met. Once again, I would like to remind you my approach is to offer advice according to time and as much as possible, this is detached from any emotions. Other gold bugs will give their recommendations based on what they would like to see; :D.. they think that gold should move up everyday and that advice is causing a lot of suffering among many gold investors, even as gold went up from $260 to $450. LET ME SAY THAT GOLD WILL NEVER MOVE UP AS A RESULT OF COMMENTS BY GOLD BUGS. Their everyday same-talk will never change the cause of nature however vigorously they chorus a theme. In actual fact, a lot of people are loosing faith as they have been hearing the same story throughout from a few gold bugs about gold soon reaching $480 and then $540. GOLD WILL ONLY MOVE UP WHEN NATURE WILL BE IN ITS FULL SUPPORT. THAT PERIOD IS SOON COMING IN THE NEXT YEAR.

I recommended buying gold at $260 during a particularly depressed period in 2001 and recommended holding till 2004 December when it reached $450. During the next year, time will come for a long-term bull market in gold. I therefore urge you to put aside some money as you await the right opportunity.

This week, gold will have a mixed trend, and so no new buying is recommended. The trading range will be $438.80 to $429.90, hence trade accordingly.

SILVER
This is my favourite for the future. In 2004, I always recommended higher side selling and down side buying. Long term buyers can buy option call but for the short term, it doesn’t look good. Last week silver broke the key astrological support of $6.84 and it therefore looks weak until crosses $6.84. My advice is NOT to take any position till it remains above $6.84 for 72 hours. This week’s low could touch $6.61.

Astrological calculations show that we shall be buying silver next week, so wait for my buying call during the next week.

COOPER/PALLADIUM/PLATINUM

Don't buy any of these commodities as copper and platinum are very near falling, which could be within a few days. Palladium will only trade at these levels.

TREASURY BOND

They went up last week as predicted and they should remain positive for this week. One can book profit on Thursday. As you may be aware, I see the bonds soon making new highs and you should therefore not short them even if big traders trade against them.

STOCK MARKET
As after 2000 when I predicted great crash of world stock market, and recommended buying in 2002, last week I was fully satisfied with my prediction. Asia, Europe and USA started falling and you could see the mood suddenly change and media started talking differently. If it rises on Tuesday, buy to add more short position.

THE MARKETS ARE IN THE GRIP OF NATURE AND SHOULD THEREFORE FALL SHARPLY. THIS IS THE WAVE OF NATURE THEORY AND THE WAVE INFLUENCES THE MIND OF MASSES.
I see the market falling sharply this week.

OIL

The fall of oil on Friday confirms that it has finally made its top and that the way from this point on can only be downward. Therefore stay short in oil, heating oil, natural gas and unleaded gas. This week, continue to go short from Tuesday because big buyer will come on Katrina news but no need to worry and there is no need to cover the short. I will short on Tuesday and I will buy my short at $58.20 and you could also do that. Short term oil is down but in the long run, it will rise from mid December.

CURRENCIES

I SHALL ONLY WRITE ONE LINE – The wave of nature is creating a Tsunami wave for the dollar and all currencies have to surrender to the dollar. Indeed, the dollar will soon march to $94. From Wednesday great rise in dollar is coming.

So, lets see Guru..... regards from Aladin

@ Edel Man

--- "Lao Tzu, a 6th century BC poet observed,
"Those who have knowledge don't predict. Those who predict don't have knowledge".
Despite these age-old words of wisdom our industry seems to persist in producing and using forecasts. This is all the more puzzling given the easily available data on the appalling nature of track records in forecasting. Economists, strategists and analysts are all guilty. In general, forecasts seem to be a lagged function of actual outcomes - adaptive expectations dominate forecasts.
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Ich wundere mich auch immer wieder wie fest Guru M davon ueberzeugt ist.
Hat er nun eine Macke weg oder kommt es wirklich so wie er sagt. ?
Das ein Crash auf den Maerkten kommt wissen wir alle, nun heisst es sich davor zu schuetzen. So viele Blasen werden platzen, aber wann genau weiss keiner. Die fallenden Maerkte koennen kurzfristig die GM Aktien mit runter reissen, also hebt Euch ein wenig Luft auf fuer den Ausrutscher der kommen kann.

Mfg

Aladin, (ich wuenschte ich haette die Wunderlampe) :))
Wundern werden wir uns jedoch alle noch.

*Russia and China might consider replacing dollar in bilateral trade

By Yelena Fedorova
Novosti News Agency
Sunday, August 28, 2005

http://en.rian.ru/business/20050828/41239808.html

MOSCOW -- Russia and China might consider replacing the dollar in bilateral trade, a senior banking expert said on the eve of the Third Russian-Chinese Banking Forum opening Monday.

Garegin Torsunyan, president of the Association of Russian Banks (ARB), said, "There are many ways to establish direct currency exchange and appropriate exchange rates with our Chinese partners."

A certain step in this direction has already been made when Russian and Chinese banks were allowed to open mutual corresponding accounts, he added.

At the same time, Torsunyan said it was difficult to establish direct currency exchange considering that the Russian currency was not convertible abroad.

The use of the dollar in servicing Russian-Chinese trade is the result of Russia's monetary policy, the expert said.

"The fact that we have been using the dollar in our trade with a neighboring country for many years while having a more stable and undervalued domestic currency is the result of our monetary and economic policy," he said.

"The value of the Russian national currency is much higher than we have currently set," he added. "Foreign countries evaluate the Russian currency on the basis of our own evaluation."

According to the expert, such under-evaluation is the result of "inferiority complex" and lack of self-respect in economic sphere.

In mid-term perspective, there is a necessity to form a "base currency" in South East Asia, he added. The Euro program was developed in the 1960s to counter the expansion of the dollar. Therefore, it is logical to form the third and the fourth global currencies, Torsunyan said.

"Until recently we believed it would be the yen, although at present this prospect is doubtful," the banking expert said.

He does not discard the possibility that the yuan or the unified currency of China and South Korea could be chosen as a "base currency" in the future…

-END-

*Dumping of dollar could cause economic Sept. 11, U.S. expert says

By Bruce Stannard
The Australian, Sydney
Monday, August 29, 2005

http://www.theaustralian.news.…6416680%255E28737,00.html

The nightmare scenario that haunts global strategist Clyde Prestowitz is an economic September 11 -- a worldwide financial panic triggered by a sudden massive selloff of US dollars that would lead inexorably to the collapse of economies around the world.

If that happens, Prestowitz predicts: "It would make the Great Depression of the 1930s look like a walk in the park." Australia would be sucked into the vortex of such a recession, which would cause great hardship throughout the world, he warns.

Prestowitz is not a doomsayer, neither is he alone in his views. As president of the Economic Strategy Institute, a Washington think tank, he is in regular contact with the most influential US business leaders, some of whom -- Warren Buffet and George Soros included -- have taken steps to hedge their currency positions against the possibility of a cataclysmic plunge in the greenback.

-END-