Im Moment spricht gerade Dr.Marc Faber auf CNBC und er sagt folgendes:
Dollar wird wertlos
Dow Jones faellt demnaechst.
Nur mit drastischen Zinserhoehungen kann man Gold bremsen.
Erst gibt es eine Hyperinflation bevor es eine Deflation gibt.
Der Fed wird nach Greenspan viel drucken muessen, hier noch ein anderer Artikel.
Ich hoer und lese gerne von Faber, es macht mir Sinn.
Gruss
XAX
Seltsame Dinge geschehen.....
(Auszug von Butlers jüngestem Kommentar):
...In silver, based upon the current COT report and subsequent trading from the cut-off date, the dealers appear to have sold short an additional 40,000 net contracts (200 million ounces) on the price rally over the past month or so. By my calculations, the dealer net short futures position has increased to roughly 375 million ounces, including the extrapolation from the cut-off date. While not at a record like gold, the silver COTs are very full, although they could get fuller at higher prices. The bottom line is that we are close to a "do or die" extreme juncture in the market, where volatility and risk are high. One side or the other, tech funds or dealers, will win or lose. This is not a contest in which other market participants, including small traders, play much of a role in the determination of the outcome.
Can silver move sharply higher from here, in spite of negative COT readings? Of course it can. Can we sell down through the moving averages easily? Yes. Is that doubletalk? Maybe, but I would be leery of anyone who claimed to know how the short term will play out. I do think I know that on a short-term basis, while profit potential may be high in silver (as it always is), risk is also high.
....
This week, silver received an unexpected endorsement from an unlikely quarter – the Silver Users Association (SUA). For those of you who may be unfamiliar with this organization, here’s their website http://www.silverusersassociation.org/index.shtml I have previously written about the SUA, in non-flattering terms, in an article 4 years ago, "Silver Users, Silver Abusers" http://www.investmentrarities.com/03-26-01.html
I don’t want to go off on a tangent, but I could never understand how the SUA was allowed to exist, since their main purpose seemed to be to keep its members supplied with cheap silver and that they were the only commodity consumer group in existence. If a group of commodity producers banded together for the purpose of artificially increasing the price of their commodity, that would be clearly illegal under US law. How a group of commodity consumers could get away with the reverse goal is a mystery to me.
Additionally, the SUA was the main driver behind the US Government disposing of its massive silver stockpile over the past 60 years. This was the main reason the SUA was formed. In the interest of full disclosure, I did complain to the Justice Department’s Anti-Trust Division about the SUA, some 15 years ago. Suffice it to say, I’m no friend of the SUA.
That’s why I was surprised when a received a number of e-mails from friends and readers this week about the SUA. First, I learned that the SUA had actually published one of my articles in their April 2005 newsletter. No, it wasn’t the Silver Abusers article, but one on digital cameras. I’m used to seeing my articles published by others, but I never expected the SUA to do so. I’d be lying if I said I was flattered.
More importantly, it turned out that the SUA had written articles in their two most recent newsletters, dated July and September 2005, on the pending Silver ETF from Barclays. One reader wrote to me that the position of the SUA on the Silver ETF fully endorsed my take on the ETF, which I wrote about in June -http:// [URL]http://www.investmentrarities.com/06-28-05.html
While I would concur that the SUA agreed with my assessment, of much greater significance is that the SUA has fully endorsed silver as an investment. As much as I loathe what the SUA stands for and has done to the silver market, I will acknowledge that they know as much about silver as could be known. For them to tell you that real silver is a great investment is powerful beyond any words I could ever write. They’re even telling you to buy allocated silver, the only kind of stored silver that I preach about.
No, the SUA is not suddenly in the investment advisory business and is not intentionally promoting silver. That would be preposterous. But if you take the time to read why they are opposed to Barclays Silver ETF, and apply your common sense, you will be able to reach no other reasonable conclusion. Here are some excerpts from their position on the ETF (full statement - http://www.silverusersassociat…/news/wash_rpt_0509.shtml
The excerpts -
"Background on ETF
An ETF is an Exchange Traded Fund, created under the Investment Company Act of 1940. They are index-based products, which hold a portfolio of securities that is intended to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, generally correspond to the price and yield performance of the underlying benchmark index. In the case of a Silver ETF, the index would track the silver price and be backed by physically vaulted silver. Gold ETF's gained popularity in the recent commodity bull markets as investors were attracted to an alternate form of gold investment other than mining shares, options, futures and physical. Many are interested in gold from a 'buy and hold' perspective. Each unit that is bought on the gold ETF has resulted in physical gold metal being purchased on the open market and stored in a vault. In total, these gold ETF's have contributed to 250 tons of gold being purchased in the open market, approximately $3.4 billion dollars.
Impact of Silver ETF
Fortunately we do not have to look back very far to see the impact a significant amount of allocated silver would have on the market. It was 1998 when Warren Buffet purchased over 100 million ounces of physical silver and the spot price rallied over $3 dollars and one month lease rates soared over 30%.
………As it is, silver can be an illiquid market because there are few central banks which own silver. Silver is inexpensive in terms of commodities, and its volatility is typically 2-3 times that of gold.
These are both reasons investors are drawn to the market. A silver ETF would only exaggerate silver's illiquidity given the sheer volume of physical silver needed to be shipped and stored. While a silver ETF might initially provide price benefits for producers, we believe it would disrupt the market in the short term and may harm the market in the long term.
SUA Position
The Silver Users Association opposes the creation of a silver ETF because of the concerns that doing so will require the holding of physical silver in allocated accounts, thus removing large amounts of silver from the market. By doing so, the ETF most likely would cause a shortage of silver in the marketplace……"
I urge you to read the entire article. The SUA writes in very clear and blunt language, just like I tried to do in my ETF article. You decide if the SUA agrees with me. They are telling you there is not enough real silver in the world to fund a silver ETF, just like I did. They are telling you that the silver ETF will create a shortage and send the price soaring, just like I did. They are comparing the impact of the silver ETF to Warren Buffett’s silver purchase in 1998, just like I did. They are telling you that there is plenty of gold for any number of gold ETF’s, but not enough for even one measly silver ETF, just like I did and further confirming my contention that silver is more rare than gold. They are confirming that there is little silver left in the central banks of the world. They are confirming that allocated (with serial numbers and specific bar weights) silver is the type of silver that counts, just like I’ve always done. They are telling you that silver is cheap and will move much more than gold. Is there an echo in here?
Please understand me – it’s not just that they wrote exactly what I wrote. It has to do with who I am and who they are. I’m an analyst who is bullish on silver and who is interested in ending the silver manipulation and seeing as many regular people take advantage of a great investment as possible. You would expect me to say bullish things about silver. But what about the Silver Users Association? What would you expect to hear from them?
I’ll tell you what I have come to expect from following them for 20+ years. Up until this ETF article, I have never heard them say anything bullish about silver. It was always "there’s plenty of silver, the price should go down, it will always be a poor investment, yada, yada, yada." Never have they issued a bullish word about silver. That’s what is so significant about their ETF article; it is nothing but bullish. Not enough silver for an ETF, silver’s inexpensive, the ETF will cause a shortage, it moves faster than gold, the ETF will benefit producers, the ETF will have the same impact that Warren Buffett did. All I can say is "huh?"
This SUA article is serious stuff. It is unprecedented. There was only one reason they came out against this ETF as forcefully as they have – they knew this silver ETF could blow the silver market sky high. The SUA had to do whatever it took to kill it, and as I wrote previously, there’s no other way to spin it. If the silver ETF is killed, it will be for the irrefutable fact that there is not enough real silver in the world to fund it anywhere near current prices. It should be simple for you to recognize that the SUA was in such a bind that it forced this open and blunt approach.
And you can rest assured that writing articles in their newsletter is only the tip of the iceberg as far as their real, behind the scenes effort to derail the silver ETF. The SUA and their members are the masters of backroom lobbying and influence peddling. How else do you think they succeeded in causing the disposal of billions of ounces of government silver over half a century, right in front of our eyes? The army of well-paid lawyers and lobbyists from Eastman Kodak, Dupont, Dow Chemical, Engelhard and Tiffany have been petitioning and influencing the SEC to kill the ETF. Against this concerted and well-organized effort against the silver ETF, I’m not aware of any forceful attempt to get it approved.
While I can be wrong, and I do hope I am, the effort to kill the ETF should prevail. It won’t be a surprise, because there never was enough real silver to back it. The surprise is to see the SUA come out so publicly against it, and in doing so, prove to the world just how little silver is left the world. It would be hard to ask for clearer proof. In fact, we don’t even have to wait for the final SEC decision to deny the ETF in order to confirm my contention that there is not enough silver, at near current prices, to back it. The SUA just did that.
The super good news, of course, is that you can do something about it. You don’t need to wait for a Silver ETF, which may never come into existence, in order to buy real silver. You can do it on your own. Just make sure, if you are buying silver that will not be in your personal possession, that you buy the right kind of stored silver. That means no unallocated, pool accounts or leveraged deals, if your intent is to own real silver. Those kinds of silver are the type the SUA would prefer to see you buy. According to them, the only type of silver that really matters is allocated silver. Please listen to them.
.....
Germoney
ZitatIch freue mich jedenfalls ueber Silber !
Dito, nun scheiden sich an Silber (mal wieder) die Geister. Mal sehen wo die Reise hingeht. So einen Kurseinbruch wie in 2004 nach dem rasanten Anstieg brauch ich nicht mehr. Vorsichtshalber habe ich heute etwas Papiersilber verkauft...
[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/agapr04.gif]
ZitatAlles anzeigenIm Moment spricht gerade Dr.Marc Faber auf CNBC und er sagt folgendes:
Dollar wird wertlos
Dow Jones faellt demnaechst.
Nur mit drastischen Zinserhoehungen kann man Gold bremsen.
Erst gibt es eine Hyperinflation bevor es eine Deflation gibt
Faber bringts auf den Punkt!
Um es vorweg zu sagen, ich bin optimistisch für Gold und noch optimistischer für Silber wie wahrscheinlich die meisten hier und kaufe vor allem physisch, aber auch in kleinen Mengen Silberminenaktien und halte ansonsten viel cash (auf verschieden Bankkonten).
Ich könnte mir jedoch vorstellen, daß wir gerade einen Wendepunkt erleben. Der Höhepunkt der Kreditexpansion scheint mir (vorläufig) überschritten zu sein, auch wenn sich dies in den letzten Monatsberichten der EZB und der FED noch nicht widerspiegelt.
Daß die FED den Zinssatz langsam nach oben zieht, ist ja bekannt. Nach vielen Warnungen scheint die EZB jetzt auch langsam nachziehen zu wollen.
Schon jetzt sieht es so aus, als ob die US Aktienindizes langsam aber sicher zurückkommen sowie der US Immobilienmarkt rückläufig ist. (Übrigens Lehman hat ein zertifikat für Retails rausgegeben, womit man auf einen rückläufigen US Housing Index wetten kann - Nicht daß ich es empfehlen würde, es zeigt aber, wohin die Reise geht).
Immer mehr US Unternehmen kommen in extreme Schieflagen (siehe Delphi - GM Motors) und müssen In die Insolvenz gehen. Den US Bürgern wird infolge der Berichterstattung, insbesondere bzgl. der Pensionsverpflichtungen, welche diese Unternehmen nicht mehr tragen können, bewußt, daß ihre Altersvorsorge auf wackligen Beinen steht. (Zumindest die US-Amerikaner, mit denen ich beruflich zu tun habe, sehen das so.) Die Amis bekommen zwar nicht so schnell Angst wie wir Deutschen oder die Japaner. Früher oder später wird diese Entwicklung auch bei den Amis zur Konsumzurückhaltung führen.
Das wird zu einer Abwärtsspirale auf den US Aktienmärkten und Immobilienmärkten führen, die durch ein Anwachsen von Privatinsolvenzen verstärkt werden wird. Das wird m.E. zunächst zu einer deflationären Depression führen, in dessen Verlauf auch die Nominalwerte von Gold und Silber sinken können (Bis es soweit ist, vielleicht in zwei Jahren rechne ich allerdings noch mit einer kräftigen Aufwärtsbewegung bei Gold und Silber). Da die Nominalwerte anderer Wirtschaftsgüter (insbesondere Aktein und Immobilien aber viel schnell fallen werden, wird die Kaufkraft der Edelmetalle steigen.
Die Regierungen werden dann meiner Meinung nach versuchen, mit allen Mitteln (Zinssätze auf Null, Steuergutschriften, staatliche Ausgabeprogramme, Staatsgarantien für Banken, sprich alle Mittel, die Japan angewndet hat) versuchen, die deflationäre Depression zu stoppen. Ob sie es schaffen ( dann eine Hyperinflation herbeiführen und damit die Depression verlängern) ist eine offene Frage. Ich persönlich bin skeptisch. Ich habe beruflich viel mit Finanzierungen zu tun. Und wer weiß, wie die Wirtschaftsteilnehmer ihrer Risiken über Derivate weiterreichen, kann sich vorstellen, wie instabil das Finanzsystem ist. Pleiten können sich innerhalb weniger Tage durch das System "fressen" Wurde hier im Forum ja auch schon oft besprochen.
Wie auch immer, ob Deflation oder Hyperinflation oder beides hintereinander. In beiden Szenarien erscheint es mir richtig Gold und Silber sowie Cash zu halten. Das Halten von langlaufenden Rentenpapieren ist in beiden Szenarien falsch (Bei der Hyperinflation wird der Anspruch durch Kaufkraftzerfall des Geldes entwert, bei einer Deflation möglicherweise durch Insolvenz des Schuldners).
Ob es zu einer Hyperinflation oder zu einer deflationären Depression kommt, ist m.E. nur entscheidend für die Frage, ob man sich zum jetzzigen zeitpunkt für eine Investition (z.B. Hausbau) stark verschulden sollte. In einem Inflationsszenario wäre das natürlich sehr vorteilhaft, bei einer deflationären Depression liefe man infolge möglichen Arbeitsplatzverlustes, Gehaltsrückgänge Gefahr, alles zu verlieren. Ich würde so etwas auf keine Fall riskieren wollen.
Aber wie gesagt, ich bin der Meinung, wir stehen erst am Anfang des deflationären Szenarios, die Entwicklung kann sich allerdings schnell beschleunigen, wenn die Regierungen nicht "aufpassen". Bis zu dieser Bescheunigungsphase sollte sich der Preis von Gold und Silber massiv verteuern, weil die klugen Anleger ihr Geld aus den bröckelnden Aktien- und Immobillienmärkten verstärkt in Edelmetalle umschichten werden.
Viele Grüße
liberty
Sumasumarum:
Ob Inflation oder Deflation,oder umgekehrt:
Die Edelmetalle profitieren in beiden Szenarien.
Grüsse
@ Edel Man
Genau.
Wichtig ist nur, daß man in einem deflationären Szenario sein Gold nicht ohne Not verkauft, nur weil der Nominalwert sinkt. Den meisten hier dürfte das klar sein. Ob das den meisten "Normalanlegern" klar ist, die nie ein deflationäres Szenario erlebt haben, wage ich allerdings zu bezweifeln.
Was die Aufwärtsbewegung der PM anbetrifft,sind m.E.
die div.Verwerfungen in 1-2 Jahren noch nicht bereinigt.
Insoweit gehe ich viel weiter als zB. liberty und bin fest überzeugt,
daß die Gold - und auch Silberhausse sich über das Jahr 2010 ausdehnt.
In Schüben,das ist klar. Mit Zwischenhochs und Abschwüngen.
Grüsse
ZitatOriginal von The Merowinger
Dito, nun scheiden sich an Silber (mal wieder) die Geister. Mal sehen wo die Reise hingeht. So einen Kurseinbruch wie in 2004 nach dem rasanten Anstieg brauch ich nicht mehr. Vorsichtshalber habe ich heute etwas Papiersilber verkauft...
Moin,The Merowinger
Den möglichen Einbruch der Silberkurse kannst Du somit durch Tausch Deiner Erlöse in eigenes physisches Silber etwas aufhalten. 
Nix für ungut. ![:]](https://goldseiten-forum.com/wcf/images/smilies/pleased.gif "Freude"){kind=small}
Die Voraussetzungen haben sich auch etwas geändert gegenüber früher:
Die bisherigen Großverkäufer USA und CHINA sind inzwischen Importeure mE.
Was Marc Faber anbetrifft: Mr.Doom läuft in Krisenszenarien zu guter Form auf.
Grüsse
@ Edel Man
Nur um keine Mißverständnisse entstehen zu lassen. Ich teile Deine Meinung, daß die Kaufkraft von Gold und Silber über viele Jahre steigen wird. Es dauert eben so lange, bis die breite Masse den Wert von Gold und Silber erkennt und entsprechend investiert.
Der nominale Wert von Gold und Silber in Dollar und Euro könnte jedoch in einem Deflationsszenario, was ich für wahrscheinlicher halte als ein Hyperinflationsszenario aber in ein, zwei Jahren wieder sinken.
Viele Grüße
liberty
Noch ein kleiner Nachtrag, warum ich denke, daß es in den USA in Kürze stark bergab gehen wird.
Neben den nach unten tendierenden Aktien- und Immobilienmärkten,
gibt es noch zwei weitere Faktoren, die den US Verbraucher demnächst "ausbremsen" könnten.
Zum einen wurde gesetzlich geregelt, daß zukünftig die monatliche Tilgung von Kreditkartenschulden von 2% auf 4% erhöht wird.
Zum anderen werden Privatinsolvenzen (genauer gesagt die Möglichkeit, sich in der Privatinsolvenz von seinen Schulden zu befreien) erschwert.
Zusammen mit der Angst vor dem Verlust des Arbeitsplatzes (Delphi, etc) , der Erkenntnis, daß die Pensionszusagen der meisten Unternehmen auf Sand gebaut sind, kist das m.E. eine explosive Mischung.
Germoney
Also ich habe da so ein komisches Gefuehl das diesen Freitag der Dow Jones kraeftig faellt. 
Die 480 POG bis jetzt noch nicht ueberwunden, ein Cliffhaenger !
Man redet zu viel ueber weitere Zinserhoehungen und T-Bond Sturz sowie schlechte Zeiten fuer den Dow Jones.
Nur eine Vermutung, es wird jetzt spannend, was passiert mit General Motors,.. Chapter 11, wieder einer. 
Hedgefunds und Banken sind auch am zittern.
XAX
chapter 11 was ist das bitteschön?
Make or Break?
THE CLIFFHANGER IST NUN DA .
Mal was anderes als nur Sonne von:
Joshua Fritsch
Oct 12, 2005
It's been a very exciting several weeks for gold, silver, and shares in the companies that mine them. My old favorite, Goldcorp, has astounded even me in its strength. All of "the usual suspects" have performed well, and in the case of some juniors we've seen gains of well over 50% with a few approaching 100%! So the question on everyone's lips is, "Hold or sell?" I must admit, it is a torturous decision - - a bird in the hand against the potential for an entire flock! We have analysts making calls both ways - - Jeff Kern and his SKI system are sitting tight on a long-term buy signal while Jack Chan made a bold call for a major interim top. There are certainly strong arguments for both sides. A while back I produced a few charts showing that the best time to sell PM shares was when the POG was making new highs - - we certainly are in that category now!
The best moves in the PM sector seem to come at the very end of the cycle of new highs for gold, so it is psychologically difficult to sell when you don't know if the POG will continue screaming on upwards for a few more weeks, or if we've hit an interim top. We'd sure hate to see our favorite stock, which has already rewarded us with a 20-50% gain go up another 20% without taking us along for the ride! This is greed. Greed will slap you in the face and leave you wondering what happened. Sure, we may miss an upward move, but that's infinitely better than being caught in a steep correction! 
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/fritsch/fritsch101205.html
For a few Dollars more ??
@ goldy
Chapter 11 ist ein Paragraph aus dem US-amerikanischen Insolvenzgesetz. Dieser Paragraph eröffnet die Möglichkeit, Insolvenz anzumelden und gleichzeitig für einen Übergangszeitraum (idealerweise bis zur Sanierung des Unternehmens) Gläubigerschutz zu erlangen. D.h. die Gläubiger haben nicht die Möglichkeit, in das Unternehmenvermögen zu vollstrecken, um ihre Schulden einzutreiben, und das Unternehmen damit zu "zerschlagen". Mittlerweile benutzen viele große verschuldete US Unternehmen (alleine vier große airlines) diese Möglichkeit. D.h. sie verschwinden nicht vom Markt, obwohl sie eigentlich pleite sind. Es gibt in den USA Gesetzesinitiativen, die Anwendung dieses Chapters 11 zu begrenzen. M.E. ist dies auch ein Faktor der einen deflationären crash (mit) auslösen könnte.
Aktuell beantragt Delphi eine Insolvenz nach Chapter 11. Da die frühere Mutter, GM, sich verpflichtet hat, für diesen Fall die auf Delphi übertragenen Pensionverpflichtungen zurückzunehmen (11 Milliarden Dollar), besteht jetzt die Furcht, daß GM auch insolvent wird.
ZitatOriginal von Aladin
Make or Break?
THE CLIFFHANGER IST NUN DA .
For a few Dollars more ??
Klar,dieser "gepflegte" Spezi ist auch noch da.
Aber vieleicht hilft der sogar mal.
Bisher liegt jedenfalls Crystalball daneben.
Der letzte Absatz ist einfach zu schön,
um ihn hier nicht gesondert reinzustellen:
****Mogambo sez: Sell everything and buy gold and silver and oil, and some guns to keep people from taking your gold and silver and oil away from you.
Die cleveren Chinesen sehen das ähnlich:
____________________________________
Gold sets shining example
By Alfred Romann and Cao Li (China Daily)
Updated: 2005-10-12 08:50
SHANGHAI: Gold is on the rise this week and traders, investors and speculators are betting it will reach the magical level of US$500 a troy ounce any time soon.
Such expectations have fuelled a rush at the Shanghai Gold Exchange as the market reopened after the week-long National Day holidays.
"Prices will keep going up," said Zhou Hongtao, an analyst from the China Finance newspaper, citing rising global demand.
Gold for December delivery hit US$479.60 per ounce on Monday in New York before closing at US$478, up 30 cents and its highest price since December 1987.
At the Shanghai Gold Exchange, gold closed at 123.08 yuan per gram yesterday, up 0.14 for the day.
The price hike has been widely attributed to a combination of reasons, including rumours of new terrorist attacks in New York, anxiety about the prospect of the US economy, soaring oil prices, a weak US dollar and a slowdown in mineral production. These factors "will combine to keep driving up gold prices, said Zhou.
"The price will definitely go up to US$480 per ounce soon," he said. "The rising trend will probably last until at least early next year."
Prices at the Shanghai Gold Exchange were a little lower than those in other markets, said Zhou, but they are likely to rise in the weeks to come. Prices went up on Monday following the National Holiday slowdown.
Gold prices around the world started soaring in August, said Chen Kui, vice-general manager at Shanghai Gold Coin Investment Ltd. His company plans to continue buying, particularly with the New Year and Spring Festival on the horizon.
Investors are betting prices will continue to rise with some expecting US$500 per ounce.
Shanghai Min'an Gold Investment Co is one company that plans to hold on to its gold stocks in expectation of higher prices.
"The price will surely keep rising," said General Manager Xi Jianhua.
Last December, the international markets broke a 14-year high and since then prices have continued to rise, with only occasional fluctuations.
Xi said Hurricane Katrina, which hit New Orleans, pushed up oil prices and gold went up as a result. Political turmoil in Germany, Europe's largest economy, has also pushed investors to move to gold from the euro.
Prices "will not drop in the near future," he said, although he was more conservative than others about how high prices will go.
"We won't sell but we won't buy a lot more either," he said.
Gold has traded above the psychological US$400 level throughout the year.
Demand in the Middle East saw a large increase throughout the summer, according to a variety of trade reports.
In China, however, demand has been generally low. The company imported less than 20 tons of gold with most local demand met by local production and physical transactions handled by the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
Gold is not alone in its rallying this week. Demand for metals is on the rise around the world. Both silver and copper are on the rise, particularly copper; it saw record prices on Monday, edged forward by production slowdowns in Africa and North America as a result of mining strikes and increased demand in China. China accounts for one fifth of worldwide demand.
Earlier this year, the Industrial and Commercial Bank (ICBC) launched a new gold trading product for individual investors. Previously, gold purchases were reserved for corporate investors. The Shanghai Gold Exchange opened in 2002, ending more than half a century of government monopoly over the sale of the precious metal.
(China Daily 10/12/2005 page10)
