Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

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General Motors: Bald Pleite?

Analysten von Banc of America haben am Montag General Motors von „hold“ auf „sell“ abgestuft. Die Analysten sehen nachteilige Effekte durch die Insolvenz des GM-Zulieferers Delphi. Der zuständige Analyst Ronald Tadross sieht die Chance, dass nun auch GM Insolvenz anmelden muss, bei 30%, nach zuvor 10%. Der Analyst senkt sein Kursziel für die Aktie von 32 auf 18 Dollar.

Quelle: Boerse-Go

Das gäbe einen riesen Knall in der Finanzwelt. Dann fielen etliche andere ebenfalls wie Domino-Steine nacheinender um. Und für Gold würde es keinen Halt mehr geben.
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Gold is at a major top:

Jack Chan....

We have finally reached $475, which is exactly $100 gain since bottoming in May 2004. Since the bottom at $275 in late 2001, this is the third major rise, with each rise gaining $100 and then giving back $50. So, if this is the top, we should expect a pullback to $425 where the next rally will begin. This formula is almost too perfect, but until it doesn't work....

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/chan/chan101005.html

Hugo Chaves took 10-20 Billion USD out of the USA and may have put it in Euro or Gold, maybe that's why it went up.

The disaster line is 9850 for the Dow, the last support !

Its going that direction in the next 10 days I guess.

Bush says democracy is in danger,,.... the ""crusade"" must go on but people have less money to serve their bills which is a bigger danger.

No he looks at Syria and Iran...., first the oil and later the gold.

God bless America !

Nach AIG, dem grössten an der COMEX, welcher vor Monaten
Probleme mit SEC-Regularien bekam, hat es augenscheinlich
nun auch Refco, (in den Gold, Silver Delivery Intentions mit Refco LLC
aufgeführt) , an den Ei$$$$.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/busi…ry/0,3604,1589110,00.html

von den 8 grössten Silber-Preis-Manipulateuren sind nun der "dickste", AIG
und einer der grossen, REFCO, mitten im Licht.

Die derivative Neutronenbombe, lauernd auf ihre Bestimmung, bekommt
wieder zunehmend einen silbrigen Schimmer.

Got Gold, Got Silver, get cash, get rid of debt !?!!
Germoney

re: Aladin 10.10. 16:12, Edel Man 10.10. 18:27
- Jackie Chan - und seine bearish'he Sicht:

Copied from GE-Forum:

Thoughts
(Half_Monty) Oct 11, 17:52
Maybe Jack Chan can pick a major top, maybe he can't. Maybe gold has been stair-stepping $100-up, $50-down, maybe it hasn't. But what we know for sure is -- Jack Chan cannot support either contention without torturing a chart.

Maybe MG2 trades for a living, maybe he doesn't. Maybe gold will retreat to $455, maybe it won't. But what we know from many posts past -- MG2 knows a support level when he sees it.

The current move in gold did not begin at $425, per Jack Chan. It began just below $410 after peaking just below $460. We have already had our $50 giveback of the move from $375.

MG2 is right in observing that this move in gold is, first and firstmost, a move above the Dec '04 high at $458. He is right in observing that the move is $60-$65 straight up (8 straight weeks, 11 out of 12). He is right in taking fair warning when the gold-is-jewelry crowd climbs aboard.

But he is right also in noting that support lies no more than $20 below, and he is right in pointing out that the total 12-week move has been $60, not $100.

A $60 gain in twelve weeks is a baby-stepping, back-and-fill advance that does not produce a major top. Before this over, we will likely see half-again that much in a single day.

JMO, of course.

--- just for Info --

Germoney

Gmorning

Ich hoerte eine Meinung der sagte es gibt zwei Moeglichkeiten,die eine ist Gold hat die Decke nun erreicht,die andere ist das 480 USD geknackt wird und der Bullrun weiter geht ueber die 500.

Die Analysten und Chartist sind da verschiedener Meinung,man kann da auch eine Muenze werfen.

Mal schaun

Ich freue mich jedenfalls ueber Silber !

Mfg

XAX

480,62 Dollar um 9.51 Uhr !!!!

Im Moment spricht gerade Dr.Marc Faber auf CNBC und er sagt folgendes:

Dollar wird wertlos

Dow Jones faellt demnaechst.

Nur mit drastischen Zinserhoehungen kann man Gold bremsen.

Erst gibt es eine Hyperinflation bevor es eine Deflation gibt.

Der Fed wird nach Greenspan viel drucken muessen, hier noch ein anderer Artikel.

Ich hoer und lese gerne von Faber, es macht mir Sinn.

Gruss

XAX

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/faber101105.html

Seltsame Dinge geschehen.....

(Auszug von Butlers jüngestem Kommentar):

...In silver, based upon the current COT report and subsequent trading from the cut-off date, the dealers appear to have sold short an additional 40,000 net contracts (200 million ounces) on the price rally over the past month or so. By my calculations, the dealer net short futures position has increased to roughly 375 million ounces, including the extrapolation from the cut-off date. While not at a record like gold, the silver COTs are very full, although they could get fuller at higher prices. The bottom line is that we are close to a "do or die" extreme juncture in the market, where volatility and risk are high. One side or the other, tech funds or dealers, will win or lose. This is not a contest in which other market participants, including small traders, play much of a role in the determination of the outcome.

Can silver move sharply higher from here, in spite of negative COT readings? Of course it can. Can we sell down through the moving averages easily? Yes. Is that doubletalk? Maybe, but I would be leery of anyone who claimed to know how the short term will play out. I do think I know that on a short-term basis, while profit potential may be high in silver (as it always is), risk is also high.

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This week, silver received an unexpected endorsement from an unlikely quarter – the Silver Users Association (SUA). For those of you who may be unfamiliar with this organization, here’s their website http://www.silverusersassociation.org/index.shtml I have previously written about the SUA, in non-flattering terms, in an article 4 years ago, "Silver Users, Silver Abusers" http://www.investmentrarities.com/03-26-01.html

I don’t want to go off on a tangent, but I could never understand how the SUA was allowed to exist, since their main purpose seemed to be to keep its members supplied with cheap silver and that they were the only commodity consumer group in existence. If a group of commodity producers banded together for the purpose of artificially increasing the price of their commodity, that would be clearly illegal under US law. How a group of commodity consumers could get away with the reverse goal is a mystery to me.

Additionally, the SUA was the main driver behind the US Government disposing of its massive silver stockpile over the past 60 years. This was the main reason the SUA was formed. In the interest of full disclosure, I did complain to the Justice Department’s Anti-Trust Division about the SUA, some 15 years ago. Suffice it to say, I’m no friend of the SUA.

That’s why I was surprised when a received a number of e-mails from friends and readers this week about the SUA. First, I learned that the SUA had actually published one of my articles in their April 2005 newsletter. No, it wasn’t the Silver Abusers article, but one on digital cameras. I’m used to seeing my articles published by others, but I never expected the SUA to do so. I’d be lying if I said I was flattered.

More importantly, it turned out that the SUA had written articles in their two most recent newsletters, dated July and September 2005, on the pending Silver ETF from Barclays. One reader wrote to me that the position of the SUA on the Silver ETF fully endorsed my take on the ETF, which I wrote about in June -http:// [URL]http://www.investmentrarities.com/06-28-05.html

While I would concur that the SUA agreed with my assessment, of much greater significance is that the SUA has fully endorsed silver as an investment. As much as I loathe what the SUA stands for and has done to the silver market, I will acknowledge that they know as much about silver as could be known. For them to tell you that real silver is a great investment is powerful beyond any words I could ever write. They’re even telling you to buy allocated silver, the only kind of stored silver that I preach about.

No, the SUA is not suddenly in the investment advisory business and is not intentionally promoting silver. That would be preposterous. But if you take the time to read why they are opposed to Barclays Silver ETF, and apply your common sense, you will be able to reach no other reasonable conclusion. Here are some excerpts from their position on the ETF (full statement - http://www.silverusersassociat…/news/wash_rpt_0509.shtml

The excerpts -

"Background on ETF

An ETF is an Exchange Traded Fund, created under the Investment Company Act of 1940. They are index-based products, which hold a portfolio of securities that is intended to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, generally correspond to the price and yield performance of the underlying benchmark index. In the case of a Silver ETF, the index would track the silver price and be backed by physically vaulted silver. Gold ETF's gained popularity in the recent commodity bull markets as investors were attracted to an alternate form of gold investment other than mining shares, options, futures and physical. Many are interested in gold from a 'buy and hold' perspective. Each unit that is bought on the gold ETF has resulted in physical gold metal being purchased on the open market and stored in a vault. In total, these gold ETF's have contributed to 250 tons of gold being purchased in the open market, approximately $3.4 billion dollars.

Impact of Silver ETF

Fortunately we do not have to look back very far to see the impact a significant amount of allocated silver would have on the market. It was 1998 when Warren Buffet purchased over 100 million ounces of physical silver and the spot price rallied over $3 dollars and one month lease rates soared over 30%.

………As it is, silver can be an illiquid market because there are few central banks which own silver. Silver is inexpensive in terms of commodities, and its volatility is typically 2-3 times that of gold.

These are both reasons investors are drawn to the market. A silver ETF would only exaggerate silver's illiquidity given the sheer volume of physical silver needed to be shipped and stored. While a silver ETF might initially provide price benefits for producers, we believe it would disrupt the market in the short term and may harm the market in the long term.

SUA Position

The Silver Users Association opposes the creation of a silver ETF because of the concerns that doing so will require the holding of physical silver in allocated accounts, thus removing large amounts of silver from the market. By doing so, the ETF most likely would cause a shortage of silver in the marketplace……"

I urge you to read the entire article. The SUA writes in very clear and blunt language, just like I tried to do in my ETF article. You decide if the SUA agrees with me. They are telling you there is not enough real silver in the world to fund a silver ETF, just like I did. They are telling you that the silver ETF will create a shortage and send the price soaring, just like I did. They are comparing the impact of the silver ETF to Warren Buffett’s silver purchase in 1998, just like I did. They are telling you that there is plenty of gold for any number of gold ETF’s, but not enough for even one measly silver ETF, just like I did and further confirming my contention that silver is more rare than gold. They are confirming that there is little silver left in the central banks of the world. They are confirming that allocated (with serial numbers and specific bar weights) silver is the type of silver that counts, just like I’ve always done. They are telling you that silver is cheap and will move much more than gold. Is there an echo in here?

Please understand me – it’s not just that they wrote exactly what I wrote. It has to do with who I am and who they are. I’m an analyst who is bullish on silver and who is interested in ending the silver manipulation and seeing as many regular people take advantage of a great investment as possible. You would expect me to say bullish things about silver. But what about the Silver Users Association? What would you expect to hear from them?

I’ll tell you what I have come to expect from following them for 20+ years. Up until this ETF article, I have never heard them say anything bullish about silver. It was always "there’s plenty of silver, the price should go down, it will always be a poor investment, yada, yada, yada." Never have they issued a bullish word about silver. That’s what is so significant about their ETF article; it is nothing but bullish. Not enough silver for an ETF, silver’s inexpensive, the ETF will cause a shortage, it moves faster than gold, the ETF will benefit producers, the ETF will have the same impact that Warren Buffett did. All I can say is "huh?"

This SUA article is serious stuff. It is unprecedented. There was only one reason they came out against this ETF as forcefully as they have – they knew this silver ETF could blow the silver market sky high. The SUA had to do whatever it took to kill it, and as I wrote previously, there’s no other way to spin it. If the silver ETF is killed, it will be for the irrefutable fact that there is not enough real silver in the world to fund it anywhere near current prices. It should be simple for you to recognize that the SUA was in such a bind that it forced this open and blunt approach.

And you can rest assured that writing articles in their newsletter is only the tip of the iceberg as far as their real, behind the scenes effort to derail the silver ETF. The SUA and their members are the masters of backroom lobbying and influence peddling. How else do you think they succeeded in causing the disposal of billions of ounces of government silver over half a century, right in front of our eyes? The army of well-paid lawyers and lobbyists from Eastman Kodak, Dupont, Dow Chemical, Engelhard and Tiffany have been petitioning and influencing the SEC to kill the ETF. Against this concerted and well-organized effort against the silver ETF, I’m not aware of any forceful attempt to get it approved.

While I can be wrong, and I do hope I am, the effort to kill the ETF should prevail. It won’t be a surprise, because there never was enough real silver to back it. The surprise is to see the SUA come out so publicly against it, and in doing so, prove to the world just how little silver is left the world. It would be hard to ask for clearer proof. In fact, we don’t even have to wait for the final SEC decision to deny the ETF in order to confirm my contention that there is not enough silver, at near current prices, to back it. The SUA just did that.

The super good news, of course, is that you can do something about it. You don’t need to wait for a Silver ETF, which may never come into existence, in order to buy real silver. You can do it on your own. Just make sure, if you are buying silver that will not be in your personal possession, that you buy the right kind of stored silver. That means no unallocated, pool accounts or leveraged deals, if your intent is to own real silver. Those kinds of silver are the type the SUA would prefer to see you buy. According to them, the only type of silver that really matters is allocated silver. Please listen to them.

.....

Germoney

Zitat

Ich freue mich jedenfalls ueber Silber !

Dito, nun scheiden sich an Silber (mal wieder) die Geister. Mal sehen wo die Reise hingeht. So einen Kurseinbruch wie in 2004 nach dem rasanten Anstieg brauch ich nicht mehr. Vorsichtshalber habe ich heute etwas Papiersilber verkauft...

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/agapr04.gif]

Zitat

Im Moment spricht gerade Dr.Marc Faber auf CNBC und er sagt folgendes:

Dollar wird wertlos

Dow Jones faellt demnaechst.

Nur mit drastischen Zinserhoehungen kann man Gold bremsen.

Erst gibt es eine Hyperinflation bevor es eine Deflation gibt

Alles anzeigen

Faber bringts auf den Punkt!

Um es vorweg zu sagen, ich bin optimistisch für Gold und noch optimistischer für Silber wie wahrscheinlich die meisten hier und kaufe vor allem physisch, aber auch in kleinen Mengen Silberminenaktien und halte ansonsten viel cash (auf verschieden Bankkonten).

Ich könnte mir jedoch vorstellen, daß wir gerade einen Wendepunkt erleben. Der Höhepunkt der Kreditexpansion scheint mir (vorläufig) überschritten zu sein, auch wenn sich dies in den letzten Monatsberichten der EZB und der FED noch nicht widerspiegelt.

Daß die FED den Zinssatz langsam nach oben zieht, ist ja bekannt. Nach vielen Warnungen scheint die EZB jetzt auch langsam nachziehen zu wollen.

Schon jetzt sieht es so aus, als ob die US Aktienindizes langsam aber sicher zurückkommen sowie der US Immobilienmarkt rückläufig ist. (Übrigens Lehman hat ein zertifikat für Retails rausgegeben, womit man auf einen rückläufigen US Housing Index wetten kann - Nicht daß ich es empfehlen würde, es zeigt aber, wohin die Reise geht).

Immer mehr US Unternehmen kommen in extreme Schieflagen (siehe Delphi - GM Motors) und müssen In die Insolvenz gehen. Den US Bürgern wird infolge der Berichterstattung, insbesondere bzgl. der Pensionsverpflichtungen, welche diese Unternehmen nicht mehr tragen können, bewußt, daß ihre Altersvorsorge auf wackligen Beinen steht. (Zumindest die US-Amerikaner, mit denen ich beruflich zu tun habe, sehen das so.) Die Amis bekommen zwar nicht so schnell Angst wie wir Deutschen oder die Japaner. Früher oder später wird diese Entwicklung auch bei den Amis zur Konsumzurückhaltung führen.

Das wird zu einer Abwärtsspirale auf den US Aktienmärkten und Immobilienmärkten führen, die durch ein Anwachsen von Privatinsolvenzen verstärkt werden wird. Das wird m.E. zunächst zu einer deflationären Depression führen, in dessen Verlauf auch die Nominalwerte von Gold und Silber sinken können (Bis es soweit ist, vielleicht in zwei Jahren rechne ich allerdings noch mit einer kräftigen Aufwärtsbewegung bei Gold und Silber). Da die Nominalwerte anderer Wirtschaftsgüter (insbesondere Aktein und Immobilien aber viel schnell fallen werden, wird die Kaufkraft der Edelmetalle steigen.

Die Regierungen werden dann meiner Meinung nach versuchen, mit allen Mitteln (Zinssätze auf Null, Steuergutschriften, staatliche Ausgabeprogramme, Staatsgarantien für Banken, sprich alle Mittel, die Japan angewndet hat) versuchen, die deflationäre Depression zu stoppen. Ob sie es schaffen ( dann eine Hyperinflation herbeiführen und damit die Depression verlängern) ist eine offene Frage. Ich persönlich bin skeptisch. Ich habe beruflich viel mit Finanzierungen zu tun. Und wer weiß, wie die Wirtschaftsteilnehmer ihrer Risiken über Derivate weiterreichen, kann sich vorstellen, wie instabil das Finanzsystem ist. Pleiten können sich innerhalb weniger Tage durch das System "fressen" Wurde hier im Forum ja auch schon oft besprochen.

Wie auch immer, ob Deflation oder Hyperinflation oder beides hintereinander. In beiden Szenarien erscheint es mir richtig Gold und Silber sowie Cash zu halten. Das Halten von langlaufenden Rentenpapieren ist in beiden Szenarien falsch (Bei der Hyperinflation wird der Anspruch durch Kaufkraftzerfall des Geldes entwert, bei einer Deflation möglicherweise durch Insolvenz des Schuldners).

Ob es zu einer Hyperinflation oder zu einer deflationären Depression kommt, ist m.E. nur entscheidend für die Frage, ob man sich zum jetzzigen zeitpunkt für eine Investition (z.B. Hausbau) stark verschulden sollte. In einem Inflationsszenario wäre das natürlich sehr vorteilhaft, bei einer deflationären Depression liefe man infolge möglichen Arbeitsplatzverlustes, Gehaltsrückgänge Gefahr, alles zu verlieren. Ich würde so etwas auf keine Fall riskieren wollen.

Aber wie gesagt, ich bin der Meinung, wir stehen erst am Anfang des deflationären Szenarios, die Entwicklung kann sich allerdings schnell beschleunigen, wenn die Regierungen nicht "aufpassen". Bis zu dieser Bescheunigungsphase sollte sich der Preis von Gold und Silber massiv verteuern, weil die klugen Anleger ihr Geld aus den bröckelnden Aktien- und Immobillienmärkten verstärkt in Edelmetalle umschichten werden.

Viele Grüße

liberty

@ Edel Man

Genau.

Wichtig ist nur, daß man in einem deflationären Szenario sein Gold nicht ohne Not verkauft, nur weil der Nominalwert sinkt. Den meisten hier dürfte das klar sein. Ob das den meisten "Normalanlegern" klar ist, die nie ein deflationäres Szenario erlebt haben, wage ich allerdings zu bezweifeln.