Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Zitat

Original von schuldenblase

Dein Wort in Gottes Ohr.

Habe nach Verstärkung gesucht und bei Bill Cara gefunden:

Now that is an attitude adjustment.

Do I think that gold and copper will trade higher? The answer is yes. The prices will likely be choppy through into Wednesday, but by the end of the week I think they will be higher.

I suspect that the FOMC may infer they are nearing the end of the 13 rate hikes. That will take equity prices higher, in particular, the metal miners like PD and NEM. So I think any pull-back here is a buying opportunity. Should the USD go into a bear phase any time now (it may already have started), then the metals will boom.

Sector rotation students are aware that the typical ending of secular bull markets in equities is when metal prices collapse. After that, interest rates will fall, and then the financials, consumers, and techs, will typically lead the market back higher in the next bull market.

Und das trotz dem ominösen 16. Dezember (dreifacher Hexensabbat oder triple witching day)

Gold Crosses the Rhine

By Dan Denning

When Allied soldiers charged the beaches of Normandy on
June 6, 1944, victory seemed very uncertain and, at best,
very distant. Nine months later, the Allies crossed the
Rhine into Germany. Gold's recent charge through $500 an
ounce will lead to a similarly decisive and shocking
victory in the monetary realm.

Last summer, I suggested that the crude oil/gold was
establishing an important low. So far, so good. With gold's
move to $533 an ounce, the ratio has jumped sharply since
summertime. So let's revisit this ratio and consider what
it might imply for oil, gold, and gold stocks.

In late August I observed:

"The age of peak oil has arrived, but its investment and
economic consequences are just beginning to filter down to
the consumer level. Individual standards of living will be
affected as permanently higher energy costs make their way
into your daily life...Oil's move up to $65 and above
signals a bottom in the crude oil/gold ratio.

"That means two things: First, it takes fewer barrels of
oil than ever to buy an ounce of gold. So far, this has
been evidence of oil strength, and not of gold weakness.
Gold futures are in the $450 range as we go to press. The
ratio, then, can't be explained away as gold weakness. The
second thing the ratio indicates is coming gold strength.
This will happen even as oil prices climb higher.

"Obviously, that means gold prices have to climb faster
than oil prices. In the inflationary scenario I describe
below, you'll see just how that happens. If you don't yet
have a position in physical gold or gold stocks, now is the
time to take one.

"Since then, spot gold prices have moved up another 20%.
And oil, despite coming off all-time highs is trading
around $60 a barrel. And if, as I suspect, the gold bull
market will accelerate over the coming months, merger and
acquisition activity in the gold sector will also
accelerate, just like it has in the oil sector.

The oil/ratio bottomed last summer at 6.17, meaning it took
6.17 barrels of oil to buy an ounce of gold. Today—with oil
at $59.94 and gold at $538—the ratio is at 8.9 and
climbing. The good news is, the ratio could double from
here and still have plenty of room to grow.

If the ratio continues to rise, to say, twelve, while the
oil price remains around $60, you'd get a gold price of
$720 an ounce ($60 x 12). But twelve is just an arbitrary
number. The all-time high for the ratio occurred back in
1988, at 33. If the ratio soared that high again, while the
oil price stayed near $60, you'd have gold at around $1,980
per ounce, which sounds about right to me. I don't expect
that to happen tomorrow, however.

Gold will visit $2,000 an ounce sometime over the next few
years, but not while oil languishes at $60 a barrel. Most
likely, both commodities will rally together to some
extent.

The ratio skyrocketed in 1988 because the world was awash
in cheap oil, while gold rallied. In other words, the
ratio was high not because gold was "back" but because oil
was historically cheap.

Today, the situation is entirely different. The age of
cheap oil is over. And it is ending at exactly the same
time that gold is emerging from its two-decade long
slumber. In other words, we're headed to a place where the
oil/gold ratio doesn't make a new high, but where gold and
oil both make new highs in absolute and inflation-adjusted
terms. We're headed to a place where gold hits $2,000 an
ounce and oil hits $100 a barrel, in the process sending
the oil/gold ratio to around 20.

"Nonsense!" you say. "The top is in!"

Maybe, but gold's recent spurt above $500 closely resembles
oil's "breakout" above $40 in the middle of last year. At
that time, most investors believed oil to be putting in a
major top. OPEC, Wall Street and the major oil companies
all considered $30 to be the "normal" price of oil. Few
imagined a world where $60 would become the new "normal"
price of oil. Likewise, most investors seem to consider
gold's latest rally a "fake-out breakout," rather than the
beginnings of an enduring gold rally.

Gold, from both a technical and psychological perspective,
has been engaged in a war of attrition against public
opinion and the belief in the dollar.

The move about $500 is like the Normandy invasion. And
above $525, the July, 1944 break of German lines in
Operation Cobra. This advance turned the war from a
creeping reenactment of World War I into a war of movement
again, the way it had begun with the German blitzkrieg of
France.

Only this time it was American and British tanks moving
east, not German tanks moving west. Of course, it's worth
nothing that the Allied drive to the Rhine stalled in the
Ardennes forest in December of 1944. In fact, on December
16th, 1944, the 101st Airborne Division was surrounded at
Bastogne during a surprise German winter offensive. (The
battle at Bastogne is described well in the mini-series
"Band of Brothers," which makes a nice Christmas gift).

Eventually, of course, the Allies broke out at Bastogne and
on March 7th of 1945, crossed the Ludendorf railway bridge
at Remagen, across the Rhine and into Germany. Of the 22
road bridges and 25 rail bridges across the Rhine, the
bridge at Remagen, taken by the 9th Armored Division, was
the only bridge the Germans had not destroyed, although
they tried to demolish it twice.

"This bridge is worth its weight in gold," Eisenhower, is
claimed to have said.

Simply stated, gold has crossed the Rhine...and now begins
its inevitable conquest of paper currencies and its
inexorable advance toward monetary hegemony. The move gold
is making now argues for bigger and stronger gains ahead in
2006.

And both moves in oil and gold make perfect fundamental AND
geopolitical sense.

Oil is moving on increased global demand. Even $44 billion
of new investment planned in Kuwait--which would boost
current production from 2.5 million bpd to four million--is
not going to bring enough supply on line to meet the
growing demand of India and China.

And this assumes the Kuwaitis (or the Saudis, or the
Iraqis) can actually produce what they target. And, even if
they can, for how long? Oil wells don't deplete as fast as
natural gas wells. But when you have to start pumping
seawater in to a well to boost production, you're simply
hastening the rate at which you exhaust all the cheap, high
quality petroleum from the ground.

Also, note that the Kuwaitis are not boosting money spent
on exploration, but production. Perhaps they are hoping to
get top dollar for the 100 million barrels of oil they
claim to have in the ground. Geopolitically, oil is at the
center of many national grand strategies. It's going to
stay there for awhile. And the price will go higher.

Gold is rising because of the fundamental mismanagement of
the dollar by Alan Greenspan. And to be fair, in the club
of central bankers who destroy the purchasing power of
their currency, Alan Greenspan has a lot of company. Their
respective tactics and strategies might differ, but the
result is the same: decreased confidence in paper money and
an increased appetite for gold.

In the meantime, you probably won't see Congress hauling
the gold miners in front of the TV lights to ask abou t huge
mining profits. But that doesn't mean the insiders at the
gold majors haven't already done what their colleagues in
the oil industry did: make a list of acquisition targets.

Gold production CAN be increased, but you've got to find
the gold first. That means you have to explore for it. And
with higher gold prices on the horizon, the incentive for
finding it is definitely there. Gold majors, looking to add
new assets to the balance sheet, are going to be in an
acquiring mood.

Fortunately, I think there's a simple way for investors to
profit from this Christmas shopping by the gold majors -
without having to speculate in junior exploration stocks.
I've recommended how in the Jan issue of Strategic
Investment, which I hope to have in your hands by the end
of the week.

9:11p ET Monday, December 12, 2005

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold market analyst Reginald H. Howe, partner
in Golden Sextant Advisors and consultant to
GATA, has analyzed the sharp reduction in gold
derivatives just reported by the Bank for
International Settlements and has concluded
that central banks now are working to reduce
the gold short positions of their clients, the
bullion banks, thus allowing the gold price to
rise.

December 12 – Gold $528.10 up $1.80 - Silver $8.77 down 21 cents

"Deep Throat", Hung Fat, Dr. No., Jim Sinclair, And The Trapped Gold Cartel

"Hell is truth seen too late"

(Hobbes)

What a night! What a day! It used to be I could write the MIDAS early on because so little would change. Not any more.

I have mentioned a couple of times of late that Café members will need to get used to an entirely new price action routine and market volatility. This is what I was referring to. Gold shot up as much as $14 last evening, was sold off on the Comex as usual, rallied back up to nearly $14 and was then mauled.

The London AM Fix was $537.50. The market went down for the usual Comex opening drill, came up back due to the firm physical market for the PM Fix of $536.50 and then the battered Gold Cartel and other shorts went to work. As has been the case for so many years, they do their damage thing on the paper Comex market, usually after one of the Fixes.

Silver broke first. Houston’s Dan Norcini believes it was unwinding of long silver/short gold spreads, which makes a lot of sense. Silver also has a far different open interest configuration than gold does, as there are many more spec longs percentage-wise than in gold from a recent historical perspective. It is a bit more vulnerable in the very short term.

A highly respected Comex floor gold trader died the other day and half the Comex traders were not present. Many of the bank gold traders were absent also. Not sure how it affected the trading except that volume was much thinner than it would have normally been and probably contributed to today’s wild action and volatility.

The gold open interest fell again, an astonishing 4311 contracts to 336,549 (on the $7 rally Friday), as the heinous/trapped Gold Cartel and allies try to cover some of their shorts. Once again we have more confirmation of the recent MIDAS technical analysis of the gold market.

When you hear of excessive speculation moving the price up, it is an outright fabrication and typical of the nonsense and disinformation emanating from many in the mainstream gold world. If it were the specs moving up the gold price, the open interest would have taken off. That sort of gibberish confirms MIDAS’ long standing comment that gold is the worst reported on, and least understood market, in the history of markets. That is because The Gold Cartel and other so-called experts continue to dish out commentary that is disingenuous at best, and mostly of marginal value.

Observations:

*Gold closed higher for the 8th trading session in a row, and managed to do so with silver in the tank.

*No matter how bullish any market is, it will ebb and flow in the very short-term, like we saw today.

*A market rest could be in order, however, I don’t think it will last long. Perhaps $510 worst case, though hard for me seeing it getting close to that number. Cash market buyers and spec longs out of the market will be all over dips of any decent amount. Market surprises are far more likely to be on the upside for some time, not the downside.

*The Gold Cartel knows the jig is up, however, think of them as a retreating army. They will still counterattack, as it appears they did today, in order to make their retreat more manageable AND to do what they can to trigger the specs to dump so they can cover more shorts.

*They most likely will go after some Japanese specs this evening (spec margins were doubled).

*For my esteemed colleagues who constantly love to link gold with other financial markets: The dollar was hit hard today, falling .90 to 90.31. The DEC euro rose 1.28 to 119.58. Meanwhile, oil rose $1.91 per barrel to $61.30. The CRB SOARED 6.01 to 333.82 and is not far from its many decade high of 337 and change.

*For many, many years the gold market has been nothing more than the Gold Cartel artificially holding down the price many hundreds of dollars per ounce below where it should have been. That scheme is falling apart. Surely, the movement in other financial markets today (like the dollar, oil and CRB) had them nervous, as to how those moves, in conjunction with a soaring gold price, might affect the US bond and stock markets.

*The Gold Cartel’s and other short positions are so enormous, they will have to cover whenever they can, which is why I believe market corrections will be very brief and why we will take out $540 (today’s double top) to the upside fairly soon.

***** The always astute John Brimelow came up with another insightful goodie for us (like he has for so many years). He strongly believes (as I do) there are problems with various option books with certain bullion dealers and companies. Many of the derivatives strategies were put on with the notion gold could never take out $500. This means staggering losses in some cases.

In addition the big no-no for The Gold Cartel and friends is VOLATILITY, which is kicking in. The increasing market volatility increases the option volatilities greatly. It was this sudden huge increase in option volatilities following the dramatic price increase upon the Washington Agreement announcement on September 26, 1999 which caused the BOE chairman Eddie George to say privately, "We were staring at the abyss."

Back then The Gold Cartel could muster enough gold to calm the market down and rescue the building fiasco. They had the central bank gold in those days. Now they are sucking wind with some central banks wanting to build their gold reserves and other central banks wanting their leased gold back.

*Silver the mule remains explosive. It will ROCKET in the near future on its own terms when IT feels like it.

The silver open interest fell 1323 contracts to 138,305.

***

The theme for the past couple of weeks continues. Most of the mainstream gold world remains clueless about what is occurring in the gold market. They are scrambling to come up with reasons for gold soaring like it is. The dollar has done nothing of consequence of late; oil was retreating until today; there are no safe-haven crises propelling investors into gold; bond yields are comatose; and, the US stock market is not far from its highs. All the historical reasons assigned to gold when it rallies are just not present.

Yet, the price of gold is exploding. The answer to what is really happening is the one brought to your attention all last week: The Gold Cartel and other shorts are trapped and a few of them, and their allies, are trying to cover their positions. When a market is in deficit like gold, THAT is impossible to do without driving the price sharply higher.

What is so intriguing is no matter how much GATA pounds away at this explanation, no one else in the mainstream gold world, or on Planet Wall Street, will give it the time of day. Why? Because they cannot bear to admit GATA was right all along, or bear to explain what The Gold Cartel did all these years via their price-suppression scheme.

Since Gold Rush 21, gold has risen more than $100 now in 4 months, while the dollar rose from 87 to over 90 and the price of crude oil fell from $68 per barrel to $60. Did our historic conference trigger this incredible gold rally? I surely think so, yet, we might never know. What is a fact is little else visibly has happened to effect such a move … except our conference with the Russians making a notable appearance.

One more time. Increased gold demand from numerous types of buyers has overwhelmed The Gold Cartel’s ability to manage the price. Yet, the reason for the latest surge has more to do lately with the major shorts trying to get out. I have a fun one in that regard to bring your way and it has to do with a highlight MIDAS brought to your attention months ago. Remember DEEP THROAT. Retro time:

In early March of last year with gold around $423, MIDAS wrote:

In time past, MIDAS has referred to some of these buyers as Dr. No and Hung FAT (borrowed from Jim Sinclair). These kind of gold buyers have been eating the lunch of the crooked Gold Cartel for well over a year and are laughing at them now, for they know where the gold price HAS to go to achieve any kind of equilibrium. Unfortunately, these physical market buyers care little to nothing about the gold shares.

-END-

Role of gold as a safe haven becomes stronger by the day

Special to Gulf News

Going by the pronouncements of Governor Sultan Bin Nasser Al Suwaidi, the UAE Central Bank has been waiting for more than a year to buy gold at favourable prices to build up its reserves.

The Central Bank approach to gold, according to him, was one of a shrewd trader: buying low and selling high. While there is nothing wrong with the approach, it looks increasingly doubtful that the UAE regulator would get a chance to execute its plan any time in the near future.

For, ever since the Central Bank made its intention of getting back into the market known, gold prices have been on the upswing. Not because the UAE plan has made a difference to the market, but because of gold's own fundamental reasons.

Today, gold is hovering about 25-year highs and market watchers say all conditions have been fulfilled for a further rally towards the yellow metal's record prices of the 70s.

And the favourable factors include moves by some Asian central banks to acquire more gold stocks from the market, not to trade it for the margins, but to add to their reserves as an insurance against uncertainties; a role that gold has played eminently throughout history.

Rumours

The gold market has been awash with rumours that China may start to diversify its reserves in a big way by adding more gold. China already holds 600 tonnes. Similarly, the Russian central bank recently announced it plans to double its gold reserves. Central banks in South Africa, Iran, Argentina and Venezuela have also been mentioned as probable buyers.

World gold reserves total about 31,000 tonnes, but the share of gold in the reserves of countries such as China and India is less than 4 per cent while some of the European countries have about 50 per cent of their reserves in gold. The biggest holder of gold bullion is of course the United States, where gold account for 64 per cent of the total reserves.

While holding of gold reserves became less fashionable for some central banks, including that in the UAE in recent times, the role of gold as a hedge against inflation and insecurity is getting more and more reinforced.

But even from a trader's point of view, offloading of the gold reserves by the UAE Central Bank was ill-timed, if nothing else, as things have turned out. The average price of gold when the central bank offloaded half of its holdings in 2003 was $315 (Dh1,157) per ounce; the remaining lot was sold as the price was approaching $400 as the metal breached a seven-year high in the wake of persistent weakness in dollar and other problems with the US economy. Even at that price, the bank could have gained at least Dh50 million more on its holdings, although it can be pointed out that such loss is only notional.

But today gold prices are hovering near $530 per ounce, which means that if the central bank had held on to its gold assets, it would have been worth almost double its value compared to the income earned by offloading it. Gold prices have gained more than 25 per cent this year itself.

On top of this, gold enthusiasts are betting on the metal going back to the historic peaks of $800 plus as it happened in the 1970s. They see a growing institutional disenchantment with financial assets and a preference to more tangible possessions such as gold and real estate.

In the backdrop of a global currency devaluation scenario as well as the move by Gulf countries for a unified currency, total dependence on dollar, or any single currency for that matter, is the subject of keen discussion among economists. They are also drawing the attention of Gulf authorities to the 15 per cent mandatory gold reserves stipulated by the European Central Bank.

With a gold rush currently on, such calls sound much more compelling than ever before.

The writer is a journalist based in the UAE.

@ ghost_god

Zitat

Das sah doch sehr stark nach geplanter Kursmanipulation aus, die nach geltendem Recht strafbar ist.

Ohne Sarkasmus - ich finde es interessant, wie Du auf die Linie derjenigen einschwenkst, welche hier schon lange von Kursmanipulation sprechen. Ich erinnere mich noch an Diskussionen vor etwa einem Jahr, wo Du heftig gegen diese These argumentiert und sie als Verschwörungstheorie abgetan hattest.

Zitat

Ich stehe selber unter der Aufsicht der FSA und habe kein Interesse daran, bei der SEC Ermittlungen gegen Unbekannt einleiten zu lassen

Was stört Dich die Aufsicht der FSA, wenn Du bei der SEC Ermittlungen einleiten lässt?

Gruss,
Bob

P.S. Wenn ich an meine Frage an Dich in Deinem COT-Thread erinnern dürfte...

No not agin !

I go out of the kitchen for today.
It´s to hot for me !

Sag mal Edel haben die Jungs an der CRIMEX überhaupt ein Kreditlimit oder regnet es soviel Gold und Silber wie Sie lustig sind ???

Wir dürfen natürlich auch nicht vergessen, wie atemberaubend schnell wir letzte Woche durch den 8$ Bereich nach oben marschiert sind. Da hatte sich von uns auch niemand beschwert. Ich warte noch mal zwei Tage ab, dann kaufe ich eventuell physisch nach.

Viele Grüße

liberty

Zitat

Wir dürfen natürlich auch nicht vergessen, wie atemberaubend schnell wir letzte Woche durch den 8$ Bereich nach oben marschiert sind. Da hatte sich von uns auch niemand beschwert.

Genau so ist es. Der Markt war schlicht und einfach überhitzt, das sahen auch einige Silberbullen. Da ist eine Korrektur unvermeidlich und gesund; am langfristigen Trend (nordwärts natürlich!) ändert sich dadurch nichts.

Da der Silbermarkt so eng ist, fallen halt Preissteigerungen und Korrekturen meist sehr heftig aus.

Gruss,
Bob

.

Zitat

Original von liberty
Also, ich überlege mir bei einem kleinem Rücksetzer Silber-Zertifikate und - OS nachzukaufen.

Ich bin mir ziemlich sicher, daß viele Anleger ungeduldig auf eine Chance warten, (physisch) in den Markt einzusteigen. Diese Woche haben mich meine Eltern (sehr, sehr konservativ, was Geldanlage angeht) angerufen und wir sind gemeinsam Gold kaufen gegangen. Gestern haben mich zwei Arbeitskollegen, um Adressen gebeten, wo man Gold kaufen kann. Heute hat einer nach einer website gefragt, wo er sich informieren kann. Mein Chef, den ich monatelang mit dem thema in den Ohren gelegen hat, hat letzte Woche gekauft. Würde mich nicht wundern, wenn er nachkaufen würde. Die Medienberichterstattung steigt, die Besucherzahlen in den Foren auch.

Will sagen, "fresh money" ist von Privatanlegerseite da.

liberty :
darf ich fragen wie die reaktionen sind bei deinen verwandten/kollegen auf den preisverfall seit 2 tagen? stelle mir das nicht spassig vor......

Zitat

Bill Murphymeter: A market rest could be in order, however, I don’t think it will last long. Perhaps $510 worst case, though hard for me seeing it getting close to that number.

Schon sind wir dicht am worst case.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif]

Da der Euro gestiegen ist,und der Dollar mit dem Goldpreis gefallen ist,muss der Chart für den Goldpreis in Euro ja richtig down sein!

Aber wer hätte denn überhaupt diesen Steilen Anstieg vorausgesehen,die Minen sind auch nicht so richtig angesprungen,ich glaube man sollte sich vorbereiten,um sich mitte bis ende Jannuar richtig zu positionieren.Die Minen müssen vor laufen !!

Grüsse

kalle

Edelman,

sicher hast du recht.Aber gestern hat die Fed die Zinsen steigen lassen,und der Dollar ist gefallen ! Die Fed hat bereits darauf hingewiesen,das dies die vorerst letzte Zinserhöhung für längere Zeit gewesen sein könnte.Man kann also davon ausgehen,wie Mark Faber es beschrieben hat,das in der zweiten Jahreshälfte wieder mit Zinssenkungen zu rechnen ist,und dieser Vorgang könnte/wird die Edelmetalle explodieren lassen.Bis dato habe ich in den ganzen drei Jahren nur eine einzige Gold Aktie gehalten.Dies werde ich im Jannuar ändern.

Einige Minen sind ja auch teilweise beachtlich mitgelaufen,aber eben die Meisten nicht !

Der rasante Anstieg der letzten Wochen,hat sich fast ausschliesslich auf die physischen Metalle ausgewirkt.

Ich denke,man sollte sich für den nächsten Anstieg vorbereiten und positionieren.Dafür sollte man sich aber auch zeitliche Ziele setzen.

grüsse

kalle